Commercial Real Estate Market Conditions in Latin America

Transcription

1 CBRE Global In-Sights Commercial Real Estate Market Conditions in Latin America Presented by Victor Lopez, Director, Latin America Research, Global Research and Consulting Asieh Mansour, Head of Research, Americas and Senior Managing Director, Global Research September, 2011 The Global In-Sights podcasts PDF presentations are available for download on Podcasts are also available through itunes under podcasts and on the CBRE iphone app.

2 Asieh Mansour Asieh Mansour, Ph.D. Head of Research, Americas and Senior Managing Director, Global Research Asieh directs Americas commercial real estate market analysts, advises Americas leadership and professionals on economic issues, and serves as spokesperson on the commercial real estate environment. She has more than 20 years experience as a leading real estate economist in commercial real estate. asieh.mansour@cbre.com CB Richard Ellis Page 2

3 Victor Lopez Victor Lopez, Director, Latin America Research, Global Research and Consulting Victor Lopez-Beltran is CBRE s Global Research and Consulting Group s Director for Latin America Research. Currently Latin America s single point of contact across CBRE s global network, Mr. Lopez-Beltran focuses on project development and consulting with CBRE Capital Markets, Brokerage and Global Corporate Services teams. His 16 years of consulting and research experience cover benchmark and insight analysis, market trends forecasting, and strategic research. victor.lopez@cbre.com CB Richard Ellis Page 3

4 Latin America Economic Distribution Regional economic growth for 2011 is expected to reach 5.1% with a 2012 projection of 4.5% Venezuela 5% Peru 3% Panama 1% RoR 13% Argentina 15% Exchange rates in the region have remained strong, diminishing the vulnerability of the region's economies to external shocks but creating greater investment volatility Mexico 23% Brazil 30% Brazil is currently the world s 7th largest economy, and may be the amongst world s top 3 in less than 10 years Costa Rica 1% Colombia 5% RoR Rest of Region Chile 4% Latin America GDP 2011p - $3,118 billion USD Source: Prepared by CBRE with figures from WB CB Richard Ellis Page 4

5 GDP Projected Growth in Selected Countries 15.00% 10.00% GDP Growth 5.00% 0.00% (5.00)% (10.00)% (15.00)% p 2012p Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Latin America & Caribbean Source: CBRE CB Richard Ellis Page 5

6 $1,000,000 Future Latin American Opportunity 15% Growth rate 2011p 5% Costa Rica Peru Chile Colombia Panama Venezuela RoR Argentina Mexico Brazil -5% 0% 20% Bubble size indicates GDP 40% Latin America Economic Distribution Largest economies growth rate started to slow down Most promising countries, Argentina, Peru and Costa Rica Venezuela still lagging from the rest of Latin American countries Source: Prepared by CBRE with figures from WB CB Richard Ellis Page 6

7 Class A Office Market Profile: Inventory 14,000 12,000 Total Growth rate 7% 6% 10,000 5% 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 4% 3% 2% 1% 0 1Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q % 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: CBRE Mexico Brazil Chile Argentina Colombia Costa Rica 1Q Q 2011 Peru Venezuela Panamá CB Richard Ellis Page 7

8 Class A Office Market Profile: Average Asking Rent vs Vacancy $41 $40 $39 $38 $37 $36 5.5% $ % $ % $ % $ % 8.4% 8.3% $37.3 $36.8 $ % $ % 7.8% $38.9 $ % $40.1 9% 8% 7.8% $39.6 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% $35 1% $34 AAR Vacancy 0% 1Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2011p 4Q 2011p Source: CBRE CB Richard Ellis Page 8

9 Latin America Office Market Rent Cycles, Q Rental Decline Accelerating Rental Decline Slowing Rental Growth Accelerating Rental Growth Slowing S R São Paulo Rio de Janeiro B Bogota S San Jose Monterrey M Panama City P Lima L M Mexico City Buenos Aires Santiago Guadalajara B S G Source: CBRE Markets do not necessarily move along the curve in the same direction or at the same speed. The rental cycle is intended to display the trend in net effective rents CB Richard Ellis Page 9

10 $0 Rent in USD per sqm per month Class A Office Market Profile: Average Asking Rent vs Vacancy Lima, Peru Panama, Panama Buenos Aires, Argentina San Jose, Costa Rica Monterrey, Mexico Guadalajara, Mexico Market accesability Rent Santiago, Chile Bogota, Colombia Caracas, Venezuela Mexico, Mexico Rio de Janeiro, Brazil $100 São Paulo, Brazil Bubble size indicates inventory size in sqm Vacancy 0% 20% Market availability Source: CBRE Research CB Richard Ellis Page 10

11 Thank You CBRE Global In-Sights The Global In-Sights podcasts and PDF presentations are available for download on Podcasts are also available through itunes under podcasts and on the CBRE iphone app. To register to receive Global In-Sights announcements, please go to Asieh Mansour, Ph.D. Head of Research, Americas and Senior Managing Director CB Richard Ellis 2011 CB Richard Ellis, Inc. We obtained the information contained in this presentation from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified its accuracy and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is submitted subject to the possibility of errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, prior sale, lease or financing, or withdrawal without notice. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the property. You and your tax and legal advisors should conduct your own investigation of the property and transaction.

12 CBRE Global In-Sights Commercial Real Estate Market Conditions in Latin America Presented by Victor Lopez, Director, Latin America Research, Global Research and Consulting Asieh Mansour, Head of Research, Americas and Senior Managing Director, Global Research September, 2011 The Global In-Sights podcasts PDF presentations are available for download on Podcasts are also available through itunes under podcasts and on the CBRE iphone app.