Prospects for the Construction Industry. Oebele Vries

Transcription

1 Prospects for the Construction Industry Oebele Vries

2 Economic framework Credit crisis: deep global recession Strongly decreasing investment demand Lack of commercial credit possiblities Bottom has been reached in 2009 Q2 However: world trade in 2010 still far below 2008 level

3 World Trade Monitor % changes at constant prices y-o-y q-o-q m-o-m Q4 2009Q1 2009Q Jul 2009 Aug World Trade 6,2 1,1-7,0-10,7-0,9 3,7-2,0 Imports - USA 1,5-3,4-1,3-14,5-6,4 6,6-2,2 - Japan 1,1-0,6 0,4-18,1-1,7 3,5 0,8 - Euro area 4,1-1,8-6,4-7,7-3,0 3,9-1,7 Source: CPB - Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

4 Global economy in recovery? % changes at constant prices Forecast World Trade 6,2 1, Import price of goods 1,9 4,5-6½ -¼ GDP - USA 2,1 0,5-3¼ 1¼ - Euro area 2,7 0,7-4½ 0 Investments - USA -1,2-3,7-16¾ -1 - Euro area 4,8-0,3-11½ -2¼ Unemployment - USA 4,6 5,8 9¼ 10¼ - Euro area 7,5 7,6 9¾ 11½ Source: CPB - Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

5 Length and depth of recessions Recessions preceded by financial stress (of which banking related financial stress) Recessions not preceded by financial stress Duration of the recession (in quarters) Total output loss (compared to trend) Source: ING

6 GDP growth Euro area and USA % Source: CPB Euro area USA

7 GDP growth European countries % 4,0 2,0 0,0-2,0-4,0-6, Source: CPB Germany France Italy Spain UK Neth

8 Construction in Europe incl. services, 2009 billion euros Source: Euroconstruct Germany France Italy UK Spain Netherlands Poland Switzerland Belgium Norway Austria Denmark Finland Portugal Czech Republic Sweden Ireland Hungary Slovakia

9 Construction in Europe by region and type of work, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 27,8% 47,9% 46,6% 72,2% 52,1% 53,4% West East Total Europe Source: Euroconstruct New construction Renovation and maintenance

10 Recession in economy, crisis in construction % GDP Total construction New building Source: Euroconstruct

11 Crisis and construction industry Sharp slowdown of the real estate market Declining real estate and house prices Less demand is the central problem After supply is decreasing below the demand level, prices will rise again

12 Recession causes fall in demand Residential households decreasing employment- and incomesecurity increasing financing costs increasing chances on declining prices Private companies decreasing market perspectives / lower employment increasing costs of financing lower prices and profits Public sectors other drivers than private parties ensure some stability, increased importance for the construction sector

13 Construction output , 2004 = Eastern Europe France Netherlands Germany Italy Spain UK Source: Euroconstruct

14 Developments by sector Residential construction is hit most strongly New residential construction: % But also non-residential is not spared: % Particularly construction for private non-residential sectors is falling; public investments are increasing Building renovation performs less negative: % Civil engineering remains stable

15 Construction in Europe by sector Civil engineering Civil engineering 21% 25% 48% 44% 1,438bn 1,381bn 31% 31% Non-residential construction Source: Euroconstruct Residential construction Non-residential construction Residential construction

16 Orderbook new residential construction The Netherlands Source: EIB

17 Fall in new residential construction Euroconstruct area Thousands 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Source: Euroconstruct Single-family Multi-family

18 New residential construction bn euro Germany Spain Netherlands Eastern Europe Source: Euroconstruct

19 Non-residential construction Unfavourable outlook, particularly in new construction Construction output decrease originates in the private sectors, office construction is affected mostly The planning of many office building projects has been cancelled or postponed, large financing problems Non-residential construction in Eastern European countries is stimulated by an inflow of EU funds In general, less central steering and a more demand oriented construction policy is stimulating construction activity in the health and educational sectors

20 New non-residential construction bn euro France UK Spain Germany Source: Euroconstruct

21 Civil engineering Depends heavily on public investment expenditures, also from EU funds Civil engineering output is suffering from declining building construction (preparation of building sites) Crisis: Additional funding to stimulate the economy Medium term: May be victim to cuts in public expenditures Private financing is increasing

22 Civil engineering bn euro Eastern Europe France UK Italy Source: Euroconstruct

23 Conclusions Global economy has slowed rapidly following the credit crisis The construction industry is hit particularly New construction is declining more strongly than r&m Less construction demand is the major problem Public investments are dampening negative effects somewhat Possible recovery in 2010 or even later Construction recovery follows economic recovery with some delay Large uncertainties