S&P 500 Forward 12-Month EPS vs. Price: 10-Year
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1 EARNINGS INSIGHT Key Metrics + Earnings Growth: The estimated earnings growth rate for Q is 6.1%. The Financials sector is projected to have the highest earnings growth rate for the quarter, while the Energy sector is projected to have the lowest earnings growth rate for the quarter. + Earnings Revisions: On September 30, the earnings growth rate for Q was 9.6%. Nine of the ten sectors have recorded decreases in earnings growth rates over this time frame, led by the Energy sector. + Earnings Guidance: For Q4 2013, 95 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 13 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. + Valuation: The current 12-month forward P/E ratio is This P/E ratio is based on Thursday s closing price of and forward 12-month EPS estimate of $ Earnings Scorecard: Of the 25 companies that have reported earnings to date for Q4 2013, 60% have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 60% have reported sales above the mean estimate. S&P 500 Forward 12-Month EPS vs. Price: 10-Year John Butters, Senior Earnings Analyst jbutters@factset.com Media Questions/Requests media_request@factset.com S&P 500 January 10, 2014 All data published in this report is available on FactSet. Please contact media_request@factset.com or FACTSET for more information. FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 1
2 Topic of the Week EARNINGS INSIGHT January 10, 2014 It is the Best of Times and Worst of Times for the Financials Sector in Q4 At the start of the Q4 earnings season, the Financials sector is projected to report the highest year-overyear growth in earnings (22.6%) and the largest year-over-year decline in revenue (-10.2%) of all ten sectors. How is this possible? On the earnings side, the Insurance (56%) and Diversified Financial Services (35%) industries are projected to report the highest growth. Within the Insurance industry, the Multi-line Insurance (242%) and Property & Casualty Insurance (111%) sub-industries are expected to report the highest earnings growth, due in part to comparisons to weak earnings in the year-ago quarter caused by catastrophic losses for Hurricane Sandy. Within the Diversified Financial Services industry, Bank of America and Citigroup are the largest contributors to earnings growth for the industry, due in part to comparisons to weak earnings in the year-ago quarter. On the revenue side, one company is mainly responsible for the expected year-over-year decline in sales for the sector: Prudential. For the Q quarter, the mean revenue estimate is $11.5 billion. In the year-ago quarter (Q4 2012), however, the company reported an unusually high revenue number ($46.1B) due to large pension risk transfer transactions during the quarter. Due to this one-time boost to year-ago revenue, Prudential is not only the largest detractor to revenue growth for the Financials sector, but it also the largest detractor to revenue growth for the entire S&P 500 for Q If the Financials sector is excluded, the earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 would fall to 3.0% from 6.1%, while the revenue growth rate for the S&P 50 would improve to 1.8% from 0.3% S&P 500 Earnings & Revenue Growth: Q111 Q413 FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 2
3 Q Earnings Season: Overview EARNINGS INSIGHT January 10, 2014 Little Change in Earnings Growth This Week, But Down 1/3 since September 30 The estimated earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter is 6.1% this week, slightly below last week s estimated earnings growth rate of 6.3%. Downward revisions to estimates for companies in the Financials (including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup) and Energy (including Chevron and ConocoPhillips) sectors were partially offset by the upside earnings surprise reported by Micron Technology. As a result, the estimated earnings growth rate for the Financials sector dropped to 22.6% from 23.8% during the week, and the estimated earnings growth rate for the Energy sector fell to -8.7% from -8.1% over this period. On the other hand, the earnings growth rate for the Information Technology sector improved to 3.9% from 3.3%. Energy Sector Has Seen Largest Cuts to Earnings Estimates since September 30 The estimated earnings growth rate for Q of 6.1% is below the estimate of 9.6% at the start of the quarter (September 30). Nine of the ten sectors have recorded a decline in expected earnings growth during this time frame, led by the Energy sector. Other sectors that have also witnessed large decreases in predicted earnings growth since September 30 include the Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors. The only sector that has seen a slight improvement in expected earnings growth since September 30 is the Telecom Services sector (to 14.8% from 14.2%) The Energy sector has seen the largest drop in expected earnings growth (to -8.7% from -0.9%) since the beginning of the quarter. Companies that have seen significant reductions in EPS estimates during this time include WPX Energy (to -$0.23 from -$0.12), Tesoro Corporation (to $0.45 from $0.80), Noble Energy (to $0.69 from $1.10), and Rowan Companies (to $0.43 from $0.63). The Materials sector has witnessed the second largest dip in expected earnings growth (to 9.3% from 14.6%) since the start of the quarter. Companies that have seen major reductions to EPS estimates include Allegheny Technologies (to -$0.19 from $0.09), Vulcan Materials (to -$0.04 from -$0.01), U.S. Steel (to -$0.26 from -$0.13), and The Mosaic Company (to $0.43 from $0.76). The Consumer Discretionary sector (along with the Financials sector) has witnessed the third largest decline in expected earnings growth (to 6.0% from 10.2%) since the beginning of the quarter. Companies that have seen the largest cuts to estimates during this time include Darden Restaurants (to $0.15 from $0.21), Cablevision Systems (to $0.08 from $0.11), TripAdvisor (to $0.20 from $0.26), Target (to $1.24 from $1.48), and Ford Motor (to $0.28 from $0.33). The Financials sector (along with the Consumer Discretionary sector) has witnessed the third largest decline in expected earnings growth (to 22.6% from 26.6%) since the start of the quarter. Companies that have seen the largest cuts to estimates during this time include Loews Corporation (to $0.68 from $0.81), Morgan Stanley (to $0.44 from $0.52), and Citigroup (to $0.99 from $1.17). Q4 Guidance: High Percentage (88%) of Negative Guidance due to Lack of Positive Projections At this point in time, 108 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for the fourth quarter. Of these 108 companies, 95 have issued negative EPS guidance and 13 have issued positive EPS guidance. Thus, the percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance to date for the fourth quarter is 88% (95 out of 108). This percentage is well above the 5-year average of 64%. One of the reasons for the high percentage of negative EPS guidance is the unusually low number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance. Over the past four quarters (Q412 Q313), 86 companies on average have issued negative EPS guidance and 26 companies on average have issued positive EPS guidance. Thus, the number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q4 is up 10% compared to the one-year average, while the number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance for Q4 is down 50% compared to the one-year average. FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 3
4 Estimated Earnings Growth is 6.1%, as the Financials Sector Leads Growth The estimated earnings growth rate for Q is 6.1%. Eight of the ten sectors are expected to report higher earnings relative to a year ago, led by the Financials, Telecom Services, and Industrials sectors. On the other hand, the Energy sector is predicted to report the lowest earnings growth of all ten sectors. Financials: Insurance and Diversified Financial Services Industries Lead Growth The Financials sector is projected to have the highest earnings growth rate (22.6%) of all ten sectors. It is also expected to be the largest contributor to earnings growth for the entire index. If the Financials sector is excluded, the earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 falls to 3.0%. Seven of the eight industries in the sector are predicted to report earnings growth for the quarter. Five of these seven industries are expected to report double-digit earnings growth, led by the Insurance (56%) and Diversified Financial Services (35%) industries. If these two industries are excluded, the earnings growth rate for the sector would drop to 7.6% The Insurance industry (56%) is expecting the highest earnings growth of all eight industries in the sector. Within this industry, the Multi-line Insurance (242%) and Property & Casualty Insurance (111%) sub-industries are expected to report the highest earnings growth. These sub-industries are expecting high earnings growth rates due in part to comparisons to weak earnings in the year-ago quarter, caused by catastrophic losses for Hurricane Sandy. In the year-ago quarter (Q4 2012), the Mutli-line Insurance (-72%) and Property & Casualty Insurance (-45%) sub-industries reported substantial declines in yearover-year earnings growth. The Diversified Financial Services industry (35%) is expecting the second highest earnings growth of all eight industries in the sector. Within the industry, Bank of America and Citigroup are the largest contributors to earnings growth, due in part to comparisons to weak earnings in the year-ago quarter. The mean EPS estimate for Bank of America is $0.26, compared to the year-ago actual EPS of $0.03. The mean EPS estimate for Citigroup is $0.99, compared to the year-ago actual EPS of $0.69. Telecom Services: Verizon Drives Growth The Telecom Services sector is predicted to have the second highest earnings growth rate at 14.8%. At the company level, Verizon Communications is the largest contributor to earnings growth for the sector. The mean EPS estimate for the company is $0.61, compared to $0.45 in the year-ago quarter. If Verizon is excluded, the earnings growth rate for the sector would drop to 5.6%. Industrials: Balanced Growth Expected The Industrials sector is expected to have the third highest earnings growth rate at 14.1%. Growth is predicted to be broad-based across the sector. All twelve industries in the sector are projected to see earnings growth. Seven of these industries are expected to see double-digit earnings growth, led by the Building Products (314%), Airlines (139%), and Construction & Engineering (75%) industries. At the other end of the spectrum, the Machinery industry (5%) is expected to have the lowest earnings growth rate for the quarter. Energy: Exxon Mobil Leads Decline The Energy sector is expected to have the lowest earnings growth of any sector at -8.7%. Four of the seven sub-industries in this sector are expected to report a decline in earnings, led by the Coal & Consumable Fuels (-98%) and Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (-57%) sub-industries. At the company level, Exxon Mobil is the largest detractor to earnings growth. The mean EPS estimate for the company is $1.94, compared to year-ago EPS of $2.20. If Exxon Mobil is excluded, the growth rate for the Energy sector would improve to -5.9%. FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 4
5 Estimated Revenue Growth is 0.3%, as the Financials Sector is a Drag on Growth The estimated revenue growth rate for Q is 0.3%, below the growth rate of 0.9% estimated at the start of the quarter (September 30). Eight of the ten sectors are predicted to report revenue growth for the quarter, led by the Information Technology, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary sectors. The Financials sector is expected to report the lowest revenue growth for the quarter. Highest Sales Growth: Information Technology, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary The Information Technology sector is expected to report the highest revenue growth at 4.1%. Five of the eight industries in the sector are predicted to report growth in sales, led by the Internet Software & Services (19%) industry. Three of the eight industries in the sector are predicted to report a decline in sales, led the Office Electronics (-5%) industry. The Health Care sector is projected to report the second highest revenue growth rate at 3.5%. Four of the six industries in the sector are predicted to report growth in sales, led by the Biotechnology (14%) and Health Care Technology (12%) industries. On the other end of the spectrum, the Health Care Equipment & Supplies industry is expected to see the lowest sales growth (-14%). The Consumer Discretionary sector is predicted to report the third highest revenue growth rate at 3.3%. Ten of the twelve industries in the sector are expected to report growth in sales, led by the Internet & Catalog Retail (22%) industry. On the other end of the spectrum, the Specialty Retail (-0.4%) and Multiline Retail (-0.6%) industries are expected to see the lowest sales growth rates. Financials Sector: Largest Detractor to Sales Growth The Financials sector is predicted to report the lowest revenue growth of all ten sectors (-10.2%), and is the largest detractor to sales growth in the index. If the Financials sector is excluded, the revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 would improve to 1.8%. However, one company is mainly responsible for the expected year-over-year decline in sales for the sector: Prudential. For the Q quarter, the mean revenue estimate is $11.5 billion. In the year-ago quarter (Q4 2012), however, the company reported an unusually high revenue number ($46.1B) due to large pension risk transfer transactions during the quarter. Due to this one-time boost to year-ago revenue, Prudential is not only the largest detractor to revenue growth for the Financials sector, but it also the largest detractor to revenue growth for the entire S&P 500 for Q If Prudential is excluded, the estimated revenue growth rate for the Financials sector improves to -0.3%, and the estimated sales growth rate for the S&P 500 improves to 1.6%. Global Concerns: F/X Rates, Europe and China Less Favorable F/X Rates The U.S. dollar has strengthened relative to the Japanese yen and other foreign currencies over the past year. In the year-ago quarter (Q4 2012), one dollar was equal to about $81.15 yen on average. For Q4 2013, one dollar was equal to about $ yen on average. A number of companies commented on the negative impact of F/X rates on revenues and earnings for the third quarter. Did this trend continue in Q4? We've also discussed the significant impact of weaker international currencies, which reduce our gross margin and erode the U.S. dollar values of local currency profits. We estimate changes in currency exchange rates reduced our EPS growth by about 10 percentage points for both the second quarter and year-to-date. As we've noted on previous calls, we expect FX headwinds to continue to pressure balance of year earnings growth. NIKE (Dec. 19) Currency volatility is still a significant factor. Even though the euro appreciated against the U.S. dollar approximately 5% year-over-year, nearly all other currencies in which we do business weakened, including a decline of 20% for the yen. Red Hat (Dec.19) FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 5
6 Without the impact of the US dollar strengthening compared to foreign currencies, Oracle s reported Q2 GAAP earnings per share would have been up 7% and non-gaap earnings per share would have been up 9%. Oracle (Dec. 18) Our second half forecast includes an assumption of continued foreign exchange headwinds. -General Mills (Dec. 18) Europe Europe reported a slight improvement in economic growth relative to last year. According to FactSet Economics, the European Union recorded an increase in GDP of 0.1% in Q3 2013, relative to the decline of 0.5% reported in Q A number of companies stated that economic conditions were still weak in Europe in the third quarter. However, some companies stated that conditions may have reached a bottom or improved slightly. Did companies see continued improvement in Europe in the fourth quarter? On Western Europe, again, we saw great results for Western Europe as we've talked about, 15% revenue growth. We're actually seeing that both, across footwear and apparel, so both of those are actually growing with strong double-digits. NIKE (Dec. 19) Clearly in Q2, we had issues in the federal space and also there was weakness in Europe, and both of those rebounded nicely. Red Hat (Dec. 19) Sales for the Europe region declined 2%, reflecting the tough operating environment there. General Mills (Dec. 18) Emerging Markets Economic growth for some countries in emerging markets regions has also seen some improvement relative to last year. According to FactSet Economics, three of the four BRIC countries recorded higher GDP growth in the most recent quarter. For Q3 2012, China, India, and Brazil recorded GDP growth of 7.4%, 2.5%, and 0.9% respectively. By Q3 2013, GDP growth rates for China, India, and Brazil had improved to 7.8%, 5.6%, and 2.2%. However, comments on business conditions in China and emerging markets continued to be mixed during Q3. Some companies reported weak conditions, while others saw strength. Did this trend continue in the fourth quarter? Yeah, on China, as we said in the prepared remarks, we feel really like we're making great progress around our reset strategy. We're obviously very encouraged by the results of Q2 and we're seeing continued improvement in our key performance metrics. NIKE (Dec. 19) In constant currency, sales in the Asia-Pacific region increased 8%, led by double-digit growth in China. General Mills (Dec. 18) Earnings Growth Expected to Improve Each Quarter in 2014 For Q1 2014, analysts are expecting earnings growth of 4.3%. However, earnings growth is projected to improve in each subsequent quarter for the remainder of the year. For Q2 2014, Q3 2014, and Q4 2014, analysts are predicting earnings growth rates of 9.2%, 12.8%, and 13.7%. For all of 2014, the projected earnings growth rate is 10.5%. Valuation: Forward P/E Ratio is 15.3, above the 10-Year Average (13.9) The current 12-month forward P/E ratio is This P/E ratio is based on Thursday s closing price of and forward 12-month EPS estimate of $ FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 6
7 At the sector level, the Consumer Discretionary (18.2), Health Care (17.1), and Consumer Staples (16.9) sectors have the highest forward 12-month P/E ratios, while the Energy (12.9) and Financials (13.0) sectors have the lowest forward 12-month P/E ratios. The P/E ratio of 15.3 for the index as a whole is above the prior 5-year average forward 12-month P/E ratio of 13.1, and above the prior 10-year average forward 12-month P/E ratio of It is also above the forward 12-month P/E ratio of 15.1 recorded one month ago. During the past month, the price of the index rose by 1.6%, while the forward 12-month EPS estimate increased by 0.1%. At the sector level, seven of the ten sectors recorded an increase in the forward 12-month P/E ratio over the past month, led by the Industrials (to 16.6 from 16.1), Financials (to 13.0 from 12.6), and Information Technology (to 15.3 from 14.8) sectors. Three of the ten sectors recorded a decrease in the forward 12-month P/E ratio, led by the Telecom Services (to 13.2 from 13.8) sector. Companies Reporting Next Week: 28 During the upcoming week, six Dow 30 companies and 28 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report earnings for the fourth quarter. FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 7
8 Q4 2013: Scorecard EARNINGS INSIGHT January 10, 2014 Q Earnings: Above, In-Line, Below Estimates Q Revenues: Above, In-Line, Below Estimates FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 8
9 Q4 2013: Scorecard Q4 2013: Surprise % Numbers Q4 2013: Sector Level Surprise % FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 9
10 Q4 2013: Scorecard EPS Surprise %: Top 10 Companies EPS Surprise %: Bottom 10 Companies FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 10
11 Q4 2013: Growth Q Earnings Growth Q Revenue Growth FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 11
12 CY 2013: Growth CY 2013 Earnings Growth CY 2013 Revenue Growth FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 12
13 Q1 2014: Guidance EARNINGS INSIGHT January 10, 2014 Number of Positive & Negative EPS Preannouncements: Q Percentage of Positive & Negative EPS Preannouncements: Q FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 13
14 Q1 2014: EPS Revisions EARNINGS INSIGHT January 10, 2014 Highest Upward Change (Trailing 4-Weeks) in Mean EPS Estimate: Top 10 Companies Highest Downward Change (Trailing 4-Weeks) in Mean EPS Estimate: Top 10 Companies FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 14
15 Q1 2014: Growth Q Earnings Growth Q Revenue Growth FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 15
16 CY 2014: Growth CY 2014 Earnings Growth CY 2014 Revenue Growth FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 16
17 Bottom-up EPS Estimates: Revisions EARNINGS INSIGHT January 10, 2014 CY Bottom-Up EPS vs. Top-Down Mean EPS (Trailing 26-Weeks) Change in Q413 Bottom-Up EPS vs. Price (Trailing 26-Weeks) FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 17
18 Bottom-up EPS Estimates: Current & Historical Calendar Year Bottom-Up EPS Actuals & Estimates Quarterly Bottom-Up EPS Actuals & Estimates FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 18
19 Bottom-up SPS Estimates: Current & Historical Calendar Year Bottom-Up SPS Actuals & Estimates Quarterly Bottom-Up SPS Actuals & Estimates FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 19
20 Net Margins: Current & Historical EARNINGS INSIGHT January 10, 2014 Trailing 12M Net Margin: 10 Years Quarterly Net Margins (Bottom-Up EPS / Bottom-Up SPS) FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 20
21 Forward 12M Price / Earnings Ratio: Sector Level Sector-Level Forward 12-Month P/E Ratios Sector-Level Change in Price vs. Change Forward 12M EPS: 1-Month FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 21
22 Forward 12M Price / Earnings Ratio: Long-Term Averages Change in Price vs. Change in Forward 12M EPS: 10-Year Forward 12M P/E Ratio: 10-Year FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 22
23 Trailing 12M Price / Earnings Ratio: Long-Term Averages Change in Price vs. Change in Trailing 12M EPS: 10-Year Trailing 12M P/E Ratio: 10-Year FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 23
24 Important Notice EARNINGS INSIGHT January 10, 2014 The information contained in this report is provided as is and all representations, warranties, terms and conditions, oral or written, express or implied (by common law, statute or otherwise), in relation to the information are hereby excluded and disclaimed to the fullest extent permitted by law. In particular, FactSet and its affiliates disclaim implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose and make no warranty of accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. This report is for information purposes and does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned within it. The information in this report is not investment advice. FactSet and its affiliates assume no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this report. About FactSet FactSet (NYSE:FDS) (Nasdaq:FDS) combines integrated financial information, analytical applications, and client service to enhance the workflow and productivity of the global investment community. The company, headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut, was formed in 1978 and now conducts operations along with its affiliates from twenty-four locations worldwide, including Boston, New York, Chicago, San Mateo, London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris, Milan, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Mumbai, Dubai, and Sydney. FactSet.com Copyright 2014 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 24
EARNINGS INSIGHT. Key Metrics. S&P 500 September 26, 2014
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