Russell Active Manager Report

Transcription

1 MAY Surging commodities pose challenge for active managers in : Kathleen Wylie, CFA Head, Canadian Equity Research Russell Investments Canada Limited Kathleen Wylie, Head, Canadian Equity Research for Russell Investments Canada, is one of a large team of analysts at Russell Investments globally who monitors the performance of active managers. The Canadian Russell Active Manager Report is based on recently released data from 148 Canadian Institutional money manager products. (All data cited is gross of fees) 1 All data cited in the aual review is gross of fees as of March 31, Only 41% of Canadian large-cap managers beat the benchmark in ; lowest in two years All investment styles in survey lagged the benchmark except dividend managers Early look at : April continued to test active managers Large-cap investment managers in Canada struggled to beat the benchmark in the first quarter of as only 41% accomplished that feat, down from 82% in the fourth quarter of. The median manager return was 4., just shy of the 4.5% return for the S&P/TSX Composite Index. 1 % OF LARGE CAP MANAGERS THAT OUTPERFORMED S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX Challenging quarter after six favourable quarters Long term Quarterly Average (10 years) = 56%

2 The strong market rebound at the end of the first quarter, particularly in the Energy sector and among gold stocks, made it difficult for most managers surveyed to beat the benchmark. Gold stocks surged a record 39% in the quarter, and even though large-cap managers are only 2% underweight, their benchmark-relative performance was hurt because of the magnitude of the increase. Renewed strength in Energy stocks also added to the challenges since large-cap managers on average are about 3% underweight in that sector. While the quarterly report might tempt some to question the value-add of active management, Canadian active managers have more than proven their worth over longer-term horizons. On average over the past five calendar years through, 71% of large-cap managers have beaten the benchmark, with the median large-cap active manager outperforming the S&P/TSX Composite Index by an average of 270 basis points. Further, Russell Investments data also show the first quartile managers median return averaged nearly 580 basis points ahead of the S&P/TSX Composite Index return over the past five years through Dec. 31,. Active managers may not beat the benchmark every single quarter, but Russell Investments believes the average value-add over the past five years for Canadian large-cap managers puts the first quarter s challenges in perspective. Large-cap managers generally positioned for the plunge in Valeant Pharmaceuticals Valeant Pharmaceuticals, which dropped 76% for the first quarter, again ranked as the largest negative contributing stock in the S&P/TSX Composite Index. But, since Valeant was only held by 3 of large-cap managers in Canada at the start of the quarter, the stock s decline was beneficial for the active management environment overall. In contrast, the second-largest negative contributing stock Manulife Financial, which fell 10.4% for the quarter was held by 69% of large-cap managers in Canada. The top contributing stock in the quarter was Barrick Gold, up 72.5%, but it was only held by 14% of large-cap managers. Only five of 10 sectors beat the benchmark in the first quarter and on top of that, large-cap managers were only favourably positioned in four of the sectors. They were only overweight two of the five outperforming sectors (Utilities and Consumer Staples) and underweight two of the underperforming sectors (Financials and Health Care). Materials and Telecommunication led the other sectors, up 2 and 11.5%, respectively, and large-cap managers were underweight both on average. Overall, it was a combination of sector positioning and stock selection that made it challenging for large-cap managers to beat the benchmark in the first quarter. Dividend managers rise to the top of the pack despite underweight to gold Dividend managers were the only style to beat the benchmark during the first quarter with a median return of 5.5%, outperforming the Index return of 4.5%. In contrast, the median value manager (4.1%) and the median growth manager (2.6%) underperformed the Index. In the first quarter, 67% of dividend managers beat the benchmark, compared to 44% of value managers and only 17% of growth managers. Dividend managers would have been hurt most by the surge in gold stocks since they have the largest underweight in those names, but that was more than offset by their positioning in the more defensive sectors such as Telecommunication, Utilities and Consumer Staples, which outperformed. Performance within the Financials sector also presented challenges to managers with different investment styles. Although the Financials sector as a whole underperformed, diversified bank stocks were strong, up 5.4% for the quarter. 2 MAY

3 On average, large-cap managers in Canada were underweight the banks heading into the quarter because they are such a large weight in the Index at 23%, but dividend managers have the smallest underweight at less than 3% compared to 8% underweight on average for value managers and nearly 6% for growth managers. Bank of Nova Scotia was the second-largest contributing stock to the Index and it was held by 93% of dividend managers, compared to only 66% of growth and 75% of value managers at the start of the quarter. Overall, large-cap managers in Canada were 5% underweight the banks. After relatively strong performance through to, dividend managers struggled during most of and into the first half of, but now they re back on top. This just confirms that no single style outperforms all the time. Small cap managers lag benchmark by record amount % OF LARGE CAP DIVIDEND MANAGERS THAT HAVE OUTPERFORMED S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX Average Back to = 58% Small-cap stocks as measured by the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index, posted their strongest quarterly return since the second quarter of, rising 8.5% in the first quarter, well ahead of the S&P/TSX Composite Index return of 4.5%. The strength was driven mainly by a surge in Materials stocks, which were up 24.5% led by golds, silver, diversified metal and mining, as well as precious metals and minerals stocks. The Materials sector accounts for 27% of the benchmark and small cap managers are significantly underweight by more than 1. The strength in Materials was the key factor challenging benchmark-relative performance of small cap managers in the quarter. The median small cap manager lagged the benchmark by the largest magnitude on record with the median return of 2.3%, more than 6% behind the Index return. Less than 1 of small cap managers beat the benchmark in the first quarter, down from 74% in the fourth quarter. Small cap managers were hurt by narrow sector breadth with only two of 10 sectors beating the benchmark in the quarter. Small cap managers were only favourably positioned in four sectors with their overweight to Consumer Staples benefiting since the sector outperformed. As well, their underweights to Utilities, Energy and Health Care also helped benchmark-relative performance since those sectors underperformed. On average, small cap managers have their largest overweights in Industrials and Information Technology, which both underperformed % of dividend managers ahead in % OF LARGE CAP VALUE MANAGERS THAT HAVE OUTPERFORMED S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX % OF LARGE CAP GROWTH MANAGERS THAT HAVE OUTPERFORMED S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX % of value managers beat the benchmark in Only 17% of growth managers beat the benchmark in Long Term Average Value (10 years) = 54% Long Term Average Growth (10 years) = 55% 3 MAY

4 Although small cap manager returns can be volatile, they have added significant value against the benchmark and relative to large cap managers over time. In the last 10 years, the median small cap manager return was ahead of the benchmark by over 135 basis points and beat the median large cap manager by roughly 40 basis points on average per quarter. Early look at : April continued to challenge active managers Although the S&P/TSX Composite Index rebounded in April, up 3.7% for the month, the active management environment is not looking favourable so far in the second quarter of with sector breadth more narrow. In April, only three of 10 sectors beat the benchmark, down from five of 10 in the first quarter. Large-cap managers appeared to only be favourably positioned in two of the 10 sectors. On average they are underweight the three outperforming sectors, Health Care, Materials and Energy, and have their biggest overweights on average to Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology, which underperformed in April. Benchmarkrelative performance was hurt by strength in gold, up over 29% for the month. Valeant Pharmaceuticals rebounded in April, up more than 23% for the month, but its weight was less than 70 basis points in the Index so its movements did not likely significantly impact manager performance relative to the benchmark. Early indications show a tilt back toward growth managers due to their more favourable positioning in the top three performing sectors. As well, defensive sectors underperformed in April after strong performance in the first quarter so that will certainly work against dividend managers, who were in the lead in the first quarter. SMALL CAP MANAGER ALPHA (MEDIAN MANAGER RETURN MINUS S&P/TSX SMALL CAP INDEX) 1 8% Small cap managers lag by record amount 6% 4% 2% -2% -4% -6% -8% Long Term Average Alpha (10 years) = 1.37% 4 MAY

5 For more information on the benefits of active management and for information on Russell Investments please contact us at For institutional clients, please contact us at Important Information Nothing in this publication is intended to constitute legal, tax securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. This is a publication of Russell Investments Canada Limited and has been prepared solely for information purposes. It is made available on an as is basis. Russell Investments Canada Limited does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information. Indexes are unmanaged and caot be invested in directly. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any stock commentary is for illustrative purposes only and is not a recommendation to purchase or sell any security. Unless otherwise stated all index data is sourced from BNY Mellon Asset Servicing. All rights reserved. Russell Investments Canada Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Frank Russell Company and was established in Russell Investments Canada Limited and its affiliates, including Frank Russell Company, are collectively known as Russell Investments. Russell Investments is a trade name and registered trademark of Frank Russell Company, a Washington USA corporation, which operates through subsidiaries worldwide and is part of the London Stock Exchange Group. It is used under a license by Russell Investments Canada Limited. Copyright Russell Investments. All rights reserved. RETAIL (EXP ) 5 MAY