Sea-level & Climate Change in NJ: Should I Sell My Shore House?!
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1 Sea-level & Climate Change in NJ: Should I Sell My Shore House?! Ken Miller, Dept. Earth & Planetary Sciences, Rutgers! School of Arts and Sciences Hurricane Isabelle, Avalon, 9/18/2003! December Norʼeaster, LBI, 12/1993! View of NY harbor, ice-free world (73 m = 200 ft rise)!
2 New Jersey sea-level transect! 3 seismic grids, onshore & offshore coreholes! 3 seismic grids x-shelf (Ew9009), OCS/slope (Oc270), nearshore (CH0698)!
3 100 million years of sea-level changes! Is sea-level rise today! part of natural cycle? No! Sea level rose rapidly 400 ft from 20,000-3,000 years ago,! How fast, how far will sea level rise?! Ask Al Gore! Englehart et al., in press!
4 Clip from An Inconvenient Truth! Rise of 5 m (15 ft): time to sell??!
5 Flooding of NYC: An Inconvenient Truth! If Greenland broke up and melted this is what would happen to Manhattan. They can measure this precisely, just as the scientists could predict precisely how much water would breach the levee in New Orleans the WTC memorial would be underwater.! Al Gore! NYC after 5 m (15 ft) sea-level rise! Screenshot from the movie!
6 How long to achieve Goreʼs 5 m rise?! = sea level 125,000 y ago:! IPCC (intergovenrmental Panel Climate Change)! IPCC 2007: yr! New: Greenland surging, much sooner, but >>100 yr! Otto-Bleisner et al. (2006) simulation! 2266! 2364! AD! 125,000 y ago last interglacial! The future: IPCC (2007)!
7 Sea-level forecast: IPCC 2001 & 2007! 40 cm (1.25 ft) rise by 2100, 1 m (3.3 ft) by 2200 IPCC 2001 error estimate: cm (0.7 to 2.6 ft)! IPPC 2007 error: cm (does not include ice sheet melting)! 2001! 2007!
8 IPCC misunderstood by press! Jonathan Gregory surprised at press reaction to 2007 AR4 report reduction in amount of sea-level rise to < 60 cm by 2100 since table indicates it excludes melting in Greenland and Antarctica! Table from AR4 report!
9 Global sea level is rising! 20th Century ~1.8 mm/yr tide gauges Church & White (2006)! 18 cm 20 th century! = 7 inches = 0.6 ft! Satellite data! 2.8±0.4 mm/yr ʻ93-03! 3.3±0.4 mm/yr ʻ93-06! 2.5 mm/yr ʻ93-06! 3.2±0.4 ʻ inches per 100 yr!
10 Why Is global sea level is rising today?! Thermal Expansion: ocean has gained heat! Warmer water less dense global 20th century warming ~0.6 C! 1.6 mm/yr sea-level rise! Melting Glaciers & Ice Caps:! Melting land ice adds to ocean volume, not sea ice! Alpine! IPCC200 1!
11 Why Is global sea level Is rising today?!.! Melting Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps:! Alpine glaciers 0.6 mm/yr! Greenland Ice Cap IPCC2001: near 0! Cazenave & Nerem (2004): >0.15 mm/yr! New data: increased from 0.23 mm/yr 1996 to 0.6 mm/yr 2005 (Sterns & Hamilton 2007)!
12 IPCC Workshop on Sea Level Rise and Ice Sheet Instabilities! Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, June 2010! GRACE! IPCC
13 Annual ice mass loss - Greenland! Gt/year Altimetry InSAR GRACE Mean trend ( ) ~ mm/yr sea level rise Slide courtesy of A. Cazenave!
14 Annual ice mass loss - Antarctica! Gt/year Altimetry InSAR GRACE Slide courtesy of A. Cazenave!
15 Tide gauge data 20th Century ~1.8 mm/yr!!7 inches every 100 yr! Satellite data, 3.2±0.4 ʻ93-10! 12.6 inches every 100!! Closing the budget! Warmer oceans!!1.6 mm/yr! Alpine!!!!0.6 mm/yr! Greenland!!!0.6 mm/yr! Antarctica!!!0.4 mm/yr! Total!!!!3.2 mm/yr! Kilimanjaro Slide by Ken Miller!
16 Ice sheet melting! Greenland <7 m! W At. <5 m! E. Ant. Cook <12 m! Totten! W. Ant.! Cook!
17 Sea level rise by 2100: 1.2±0.6 m! Not Goreʼs 5 m, not IPCC AR4 40±20 cm: >80 cm < 2 m global! Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. Niels Bohr! Rahmstorf et al. (Science 2007) Vemeer & Rahmstorf (Science, 2009) s Tide Gauges 1975! 1985! 1995! 2005! Year! Geologic record constrains maximum rates: MWP1a >30-40mm/yr! Miller (unpublished)! Fairbanks (1990)!
18 We are tracking high end predictions! Not a Gorian 5 m, but not IPCC ±20 cm! Best estimate >80 cm global; Rahmsdorf et al. (2007)! max. 1 m? 2m?? MWP1a maximium 47 mm/yr! Tide Gauges Rahmstorf, Cazenave, Church, Hansen, Keeling, Parker and Somerville (Science 2007)
19 Semi-empirical techniques of prediction! Vermeer and Rahmstorf: 1.4 m for A1F1 emissions scenario!
20 Semi-empirical techniques of prediction! The groups who have published semi-empirical predictions were met with skepticism in Kuala Lumpur because they assume response of ice to warming be the same in the 21 st century as in 20 th! Movie is 25 x normal speed: Calving of Jakobshavn Isbræ = Jakobshavn Glacier = Sermeq Kujalleq after Jason Ammondson, University of Alaska! Denialists weigh in: Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated. Professor Niklas Mörner, who has been studying sea level for a third of a century, says it is physically impossible for sea level to rise at much above its present rate, and he expects 4-8 inches of sea level rise this century, if anything rather below the rate of increase in the last century.! Nils-Axel Mörner!
21 Ice sheets constrain 2100 melting to < 2 m!
22 High end scenarios 2100: < 1.1 m! Katsman et al., 2011, Climate Change!
23 Global, Regional, and Local Effects! NY/NJ/DE region! higher sea-level rise! Processes:! Global (eustatic) rise! 1.8 mm/yr! Regional subsidence!flexural unloading!!laurentide removal!!1 mm/yr! Modified after Psuty and Collins (1986)! Local subsidence!!due to water withdrawal!!& compaction!! 1 mm/yr!
24 Should I Sell My Shore House?! My shore house is an island during three 100-year storms: Hallloween ʻ91, Dec. ʻ92, Oct. ʻ05!
25 Should I Sell My Shore House?! Donʼt sell: insure!! global >80 cm (2.4 ft) by 2100! NJ >-100 cm (>3 ft)! NJ > 1 ft by 2050! More beach erosion, rollback! More cost to replenish! Loss of marshland! Increased storm intensity?! What about those coming behind?! Carteret Is.! Tuvalu! Vanuatu! View of NY harbor in an ice-free world (73 m rise)!
26 Gore vs. Fox News! Peter Sinclairʼs Crock of the week:!
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