Energy & Alternative Energy: Coping with Copenhagen. photo by Victor Juhasz

Transcription

1 Energy & Alternative Energy: Coping with Copenhagen photo by Victor Juhasz

2 An Unconventional Introduction to Energy

3 9/11

4 Energy per gram

5 Energy per gram

6 Cheap! Our love affair with gasoline Well, it used to be. Clean! Unlike coal, no ash residue. Emits mostly carbon dioxide! Hey that s s the same stuff we breathe out. It s s good for plants! Safe! No horrific dangers (c.f. meltdown China syndrome ). Unless, of course, you consider war in the Mideast to be related to oil It s more like an unhappy marriage

7 Energy per gram

8 Cost of energy fuel cost per kwh (1000 Cal) coal $60/ton natural gas $3/k-ft gasoline $2/gal 6 24 electricity 10 /kwh computer battery (laptop, Tesla) advanced Li-Ion (A123?) $120/lb for 60 Wh 1000 charges $60/lb? 60Wh? 3000 charges? $2 $2.00 $0.33? 33? AAA battery $1.50/battery $1000 $1000 per kwhe (converted to electricity) Plug-in Hybrid: more expensive than $15/gallon gasoline! (but less carbon dioxide)

9 The Greenhouse Effect (car in the parking lot effect) and Global Warmth

10 Are the fears all based on complicated computer calculations? 1896 Arhennius 1958 Revelle 1979 MacDonald 2007 IPCC

11 Greenhouse effect (car in the parking lot effect)

12 Greenhouse Gases

13 This is global warming: Warming last 158 years + arctic sea ice & sea level

14 THIS is the consensus: IPCC 2007 The observed widespread warming of the atmosphere and ocean, together with ice mass loss, support the conclusion that it is extremely unlikely that global climate change of the past fifty years can be explained without external forcing, and very likely [90%] that it is not due to known natural causes alone.

15 Cloud cover: the big unknown clouds 2% change in cloud cover would overwhelm human CO 2 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

16 This is global warming: Warming last 158 years + arctic sea ice & sea level

17 Recent non Warming

18 still warming?

19 In last 100 yrs, sea level rose 8 inches

20 arctic ice

21 Greenland melting? Al Gore An Inconvenient Truth: Tony Blair's scientific advisor has said that because of what is happening in Greenland right now, the maps of the World will have to be redrawn. -- but not, of course, for a few hundred years. If Greenland melted or broke up and slipped into the sea -- or if half of Greenland and half of Antarctica melted or broke up and slipped into the sea, sea levels worldwide would increase by between 18 and 20 feet. In last 100 yrs, sea level rose 8 inches Calculations by the Hadley Center for Climate Change, Met Office UK

22 Antarctica losing ice mass Antarctic Ice Sheet Losing Mass, According to CU-Boulder Study March 2, 2006 University of Colorado at Boulder researchers have used data from a pair of NASA satellites orbiting Earth in tandem to determine that the Antarctic ice sheet, which harbors 90 percent of Earth's ice, has lost significant mass in recent years. The team used measurements taken with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, or GRACE, to conclude the Antarctic ice sheet is losing up to 36 cubic miles of ice, or 152 cubic kilometers, annually. By comparison, the city of Los Angeles uses about 1 cubic mile of fresh water annually. "This is the first study to indicate the total mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet is in significant decline," said Isabella Velicogna of CU-Boulder's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, chief author of the new study that appears in the March 2 online issue of Science Express. The study was co-authored by CU-Boulder physics Professor John Wahr of CIRES, a joint campus institute of CU-Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The estimated ice mass in Antarctica is equivalent to 0.4 millimeters of global sea rise annually, with a margin of error of 0.2 millimeters, according to the study. There are about 25 millimeters in an inch. The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, completed in 2001, predicted the Antarctic ice sheet would gain mass in the 21st century due to increased precipitation in a warming climate. But the new study signals a reduction in the continent's total ice mass, with the bulk of loss occurring in the West Antarctic ice sheet, said Velicogna. Researchers used GRACE data to calculate the total ice mass in Antarctica between April 2002 and August 2005 for the study, said Velicogna, who also is affiliated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. SciencExpress 2 March 2006 p 1 / /science

23 Antarctica losing ice mass Antarctic Ice Sheet Losing Mass, According to CU-Boulder Study March 2, 2006 University of Colorado at Boulder researchers have used data from a pair of NASA satellites orbiting Earth in tandem to determine that the Antarctic ice sheet, which harbors 90 percent of Earth's ice, has lost significant mass in recent years. The team used measurements taken with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, or GRACE, to conclude the Antarctic ice sheet is losing up to 36 cubic miles of ice, or 152 cubic kilometers, annually. By comparison, the city of Los Angeles uses about 1 cubic mile of fresh water annually. "This is the first study to indicate the total mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet is in significant decline," said Isabella Velicogna of CU-Boulder's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, chief author of the new study that appears in the March 2 online issue of Science Express. The study was co-authored by CU-Boulder physics Professor John Wahr of CIRES, a joint campus institute of CU-Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The estimated ice mass in Antarctica is equivalent to 0.4 millimeters of global sea rise annually, with a margin of error of 0.2 millimeters, according to the study. There are about 25 millimeters in an inch. The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, completed in 2001, predicted the Antarctic ice sheet would gain mass in the 21st century due to increased precipitation in a warming climate. But the new study signals a reduction in the continent's total ice mass, with the bulk of loss occurring in the West Antarctic ice sheet, said Velicogna. Researchers used GRACE data to calculate the total ice mass in Antarctica between April 2002 and August 2005 for the study, said Velicogna, who also is affiliated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. SciencExpress 2 March 2006 p 1 / /science

24 What we know that ain ain t t so

25 Landsea hurricanes

26 Hurricanes that hit the US coast Data: US National Hurricane Center Note: numbers multiplied by 1.1

27 tornadoes

28 Wildfires (in US)

29 Alaska Temperature

30 Temperature in Fairbanks Alaska is Melting? North Pacific

31 Global Warming swim suits

32 How rapidly are we running out of fossil fuels?

33 oil reserves (billion barrels)

34 oil reserves (billion barrels)

35 oil reserves (billion barrels)

36 billion barrel of oil equivalent

37 billion barrel of oil equivalent

38 Carbon Dioxide

39 US & China CO 2 Data: US Energy Information Agency

40 Pollution per GDP China India US

41 What do we do? Richard A Muller UC Berkeley compact fluorescents in Notre Dame de Paris cool paint on automobiles (and cool roofs and cool pavement)

42 Wind turbines

43 Solar Cells At 15% efficiency, 1 GW peak power requires 2.7 square miles

44 Nuclear Waste

45 Nuclear Power Public attitude has changed only perceived problem is waste (The heroic opponent has been discredited.) Cost: Capacity factor now 90%. (Was 55%.) Small designs allow a cheaper buy-in: 100 MW (vs 1000) But will it compete with future natural gas and solar? Waste issue is solved technically; needs right PR Blue ribbon panel will report on waste Harry Reid problem. Obama promised to close Yucca Mnt. But 31 states have nuclear waste on site.

46 Truly Clean Coal? Sequestration of the carbon dioxide (CSS) Cost: 4 per kwh We can t just suck it out of the air.

47 Efficient and Clean Coal: IGCC (Integrated Gas Combined Cycle)

48 What can we do? plot from EPRI

49 Future Energy Tech IGCC (clean coal) LiIon Thin film solar: CdTe, CIGS, a-sia Ga multijunction solar Pebble Bed Nukes Waste Storage Coal bed gasification non-corn biofuels CTL (Coal-To To-Liquid; Fisher-Tropsch) Coal-bed methane Enhanced Oil Recovery Solar concentrator Indium shortages DC power transmission Inverters coal bed gasification Not near term: plug-in hybrids, hydrogen economy, fuel cells, fusion, breeder reactors

50 Copenhagen

51 to 2030

52 Global warming will come from the developing world. Unfortunately. Not good enough to set an example if developing countries can t t afford to follow that example. Must stop Green Bickering and Cleaner than Thou Pontificating

53 Subsidized clean is not sustainable unless it provides the inspiration to trigger the development of profitable clean.

54 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Alternative:

55 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Alternative:

56 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley Alternative:

57 Alternative: prayer Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

58 The public needs to know this stuff. Physics is nonpartisan and non- denominational. Physics should not need to be taught with spin.

59

60

61 Richard A Muller UC Berkeley

62 Tons CO 2 per $1000 US