Community Engagement and Cost Benefit Analysis for Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Adaptation
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1 Community Engagement and Cost Benefit Analysis for Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Adaptation Methods, Case Studies, and Wetland-specific Opportunities Samuel B. Merrill, Ph.D. December 10, 2012
2 Muskie School of Public Service University of Southern Maine Portland, Maine
3 Environmental Finance Center Network The EFCN is a university-based organization creating innovative solutions to managing costs of environmental protection and improvement. It consists of ten EFCs serving states in EPA's ten regions. By sharing information, tools and techniques, the EFCs help address difficult how-to-pay issues of providing environmental services.
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5 Credit: Robin Utrecht/AFP/Getty Images
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7 On the right track in 1995! But it was never brought to the local level So it was LOST in the archives.
8 More reports and updated sea level regulations As the result of a 2 year stakeholder process, Maine adopted 2 feet of sea level rise over the next 100 years, which was a middle-of-the road prediction for global sea level rise, into its NRPA. P.A. Slovinsky, MGS
9 Impacts from Flooding Norbert Psuty Michael Dwyer
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11 Adaptation Works Homeowners in Florida could reduce losses from a severe hurricane by 61 percent, resulting in $51 billion in savings, simply by building to strong construction codes. Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, University of Pennsylvania. Managing Large Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophe. 2007
12 It is Difficult to Shift into Action Mode: Shifting to Actions 1) Consequences appear far off in time. 2) Cost-benefit relationships are ambiguous. 3) Possible actions are complex. 4) Doing nothing is far, far easier.
13 Coastal Flooding in Boston under Present and High Emission Sea Levels
14 There are only four options: 1) Do nothing (usually = remain in denial) 2) Fortify assets 3) Accommodate higher water levels 4) Relocate assets
15 There are only four options: 1) Do nothing (usually = remain in denial) 2) Fortify assets 3) Accommodate higher water levels 4) Relocate assets >> COAST is a tool and approach to help evaluate costs and benefits of these options.
16 Possible Assets to Model Real estate values Economic output Public health impacts Displaced persons, vulnerable demographics Natural resources values Cultural resources values Community impacts Infrastructure (transportation, energy, facilities, telecommunications)
17 The COAST Process Has been or is being used in 1. Old Orchard Beach, ME 2. Portland, ME 3. Falmouth, ME 4. East Machias, ME 5. Seabrook, NH 6. Hampton, NH 7. Hampton Falls, NH 8. Tybee Island, GA 9. Cambridge, MA 10. Kingston, NY 11. Oxdford, MD
18 The COAST Strategy 1) Don t discuss climate change.
19 The COAST Strategy 1) Don t discuss climate change. 2) Focus on observed, local data.
20 Patriot s Day Storm 2007: York Beach
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24 The Old Port, 10/11 at high tide (M. Craig)
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27 Marginal Way and Cove St., 9/10, New Moon J. Piribeck
28 Marginal Way and Cove St., 9/10, New Moon J. Piribeck
29 The Old Port, 3/10 at high tide (D. Yakovleff)
30 The COAST Strategy 1) Don t discuss climate change. 2) Focus on observed, local data. 3) Use 3D visualization.
31 The COAST Strategy 1) Don t discuss climate change. 2) Focus on observed, local data. 3) Use 3D visualization. 4) Use a scenario-based approach. 200 Sea Level Rise (cm)
32 SLR Scenario Ranges 6.56 Sea Level Rise (feet, by 2100) Use a Scenario Based Approach 0 NRC (2007) IPCC (2007) Rahmstorf (2007) Horton et al. (2008) Pfeffer et al. (2008) Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) Cazenave et al. (2010) Jevrejeva et al. (2010) AMAP (2011) Rignot et al. (2011) Adapted from Rahmstorf (2010); and Williams (2012)
33 Projection of Sea Level Rise from 1990 to 2100 Sea Level Change (inches) Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. PNAS 106,
34 The COAST Strategy 1) Don t discuss climate change. 2) Focus on observed, local data. 3) Use 3D visualization. 4) Use a scenario-based approach. 5) Empower with a sense of possibility then get out of the way. 200 Sea Level Rise (cm)
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37 Data for Decision-Making Damage Functions for Single Family Residential Structures with Basement Depth (feet) Mean of Damage % % % % % % %
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39 Expected costs and damages, SLR Scenario Adaptation Residual Damages Adaptation Cost Total Damages and Costs ($ million) ($ million) ($ million) No SLR No Action yr flood yr flood Low No Action yr flood yr flood High No Action yr flood yr flood
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43 COAST Programming Status Currently runs as an extension in ArcMap v.9 and 10 Currently requires Spatial Analyst Converting to a subset of Global Mapper, no Arc required Will remain a free download, on the NE/EFC website Expected online release date for v1.0: Q2 2013
44 The COAST Process 1. Specify location and vulnerable asset 2. Select time horizons, SLR and SS thresholds 3. Select adaptation action, estimate costs 4. Input Depth Damage Function 5. Input reference data (parcel, elevation, etc) 6. Run the model 7. Use maps and tables in public process
45 Possible Assets to Model Real estate values Economic output Public health impacts Displaced persons, vulnerable demographics Natural resources values Cultural resources values Community impacts Infrastructure (transportation, energy, facilities, telecommunications)
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47 Machias Bridge, Machias (pressure transducer placed in 8/11) Martin s Point Bridge, Falmouth
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50 View Across the Marsh From Roof of Ogunquit Sewage Treatment Plant April 2007 Patriot s Day Storm
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55 Controversial Adaptation Solution? 1.5 Miles Wells Sanitary District Main Plant Ogunquit Sewer District Main Plant
56 Revetments Adaptation Actions: Hard or Soft
57 Pea Patch Island, DE (Delaware River)
58 Wetland Impacts The impact of sea level rise on coastal wetlands will depend in large measure on whether developed areas immediately inland of the marsh are protected from rising sea level by levees and bulkheads. In a Charleston case study, protecting developed areas would increase an 80 percent wetland loss to 90 percent for a five-foot rise. In a nationwide analysis, structural protection would increase a percent loss to percent. EPA s Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (
59 Adaptation Actions: Hard or Soft Revetments Geotextile tubes
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63 Side Note: New Wetlands Projects Starting in 3 Maine Towns NOAA funded through Maine State Planning Office RFP out, town applications received.
64 Side Note: New Wetlands Projects Starting in 3 Maine Towns NOAA funded through Maine State Planning Office RFP out, town applications received. Conduct COAST runs to analyze not vulnerability, but Opportunity for proactive creation of wetland function
65 Side Note: New Wetlands Projects Starting in 3 Maine Towns NOAA funded through Maine State Planning Office RFP out, town applications received. Conduct COAST runs to analyze not vulnerability, but Opportunity for proactive creation of wetland function Not a depth damage function but a Value creation function
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73 Adaptation Scenario 1 Adaptation Scenario 2
74 Adaptation Actions: Hard or Soft Revetments Geotextile tubes Sea walls
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78 Input: a range of adaptation options Revetments Geotextile tubes Sea walls Jetties
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81 Adaptation Actions: Hard or Soft Revetments Geotextile tubes Sea walls Jetties Other creative approaches
82 Floodwalls with removable aluminum or steel gates. Cologne, Germany (Rhine).
83 Buildings have a hardened 1st story along a wide pedestrian walkway.
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85 Adaptation Actions: Hard or Soft Revetments Geotextile tubes Sea walls Jetties Other creative approaches Wet or dry floodproofing Incentives, zoning, and other regulatory changes
86 Back Cove, Portland Maine
87 2100, high sea level rise and mean higher high water
88 Now the Portland Case: The four options: 1) Do nothing 2) Fortify assets 3) Relocate assets 4) Accommodate higher water levels
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91 Projection of Sea Level Rise from 1990 to 2100 Sea Level Change (inches) Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. PNAS 106,
92 2050, low sea level rise, 10 year storm
93 2050, high sea level rise, 100 year storm
94 Back Cove, Portland, Maine Adaptation Costs and Cumulative Expected Damages, through Real Estate Percent of damage from SLR Scenario Adaptation Cost (M) Damage (M) Storm surge SLR No SLR No Action $0 $ % 0% Surge Barrier / Levee $103 / $0 $0 Low SLR No Action $0 $ % 0% (7.9") Surge Barrier / Levee $103 / $0 $0 High SLR No Action $0 $ % 0% (19.7") Surge Barrier / Levee $103 / $0 $0
95 2100, low sea level rise, 10 year storm
96 2100, high sea level rise, 100 year storm
97 Back Cove, Portland, Maine Adaptation Costs and Cumulative Expected Damages, through Real Estate Percent of damage from SLR Scenario Adaptation Cost (M) Damage (M) Storm surge SLR No SLR No Action $0 $1, % 0% Surge Barrier / Levee $0 / $40 $0 Low SLR No Action $0 $2,674 97% 3% (27.6") Surge Barrier / Levee $0 / $40 $0 High SLR No Action $0 $3,680 71% 29% (70.9") Surge Barrier / Levee $0 / $40 $0
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99 Consider hurricane barriers for storm surge protection Stamford, CT USACE
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103 Scenarios Max. Water Elev. (ft., NAVD88) Engineering Options Construction Costs Annual Maintenance Costs Sea level rise, normal tides 100-year storm event in 2010 A B C 5.4 D 7.4 No action up to minimal flood proofing and infrastructure elevation along river. Insignificant Insignificant Hurricane Barrier at Mystic River entrance. $18 Million $75, year storm in 2070, Hi SLR E 7.0 F 8.9 G 8.6 Hurricane Barrier at Mystic River entrance. ADDITIONAL FORTIFICATION and elevating the railroad, as well as increased diking to east. $27-30 Million $100, year storm in 2070, Hi SLR H 10.5 Hurricane Barrier at Mystic River entrance. FURTHER FORTIFICATION and elevating the railroad, as well as increased diking to east. $35 Million $120,000
104 Transit Applications
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111 To set up a COAST scenario, needed are: 1. A base land elevation layer.
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113 To set up a COAST scenario, needed are: 1. A base land elevation layer. 2. A base asset data layer. (Vector file with features for assets to be modeled. Can be a shapefile or a table in an Esri geodatabase).
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123 Data for Decision-Making Damage Functions for Single Family Residential Structures with Basement Depth (feet) Mean of Damage % % % % % % %
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128 To set up a COAST scenario, needed are: 1. A base land elevation layer. 2. A base asset data layer. (Vector file with features for assets to be modeled. Can be a shapefile or a table in an Esri geodatabase). 3. An Excel spreadsheet containing the Depth Damage Function. 4. An Excel spreadsheet containing exceedance curve data.
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130 Exceedance Curves: Specify the probability that various flood elevations will be exceeded. Probability Description Surge Height (ft) MHHW (ft) Local SLR (ft) Y Y Y Y Y
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142 Sea Isle City, NJ Geotextile Tubes
143 Facing the bluntness of reality is the highest form of sanity and enlightened vision. - Chogyam Trungpa Rinpoche
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146 Contact info: Sam Merrill Catalysis Adaptation Partners
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