A full Supply chain optimization model to locate the forest biomass-based bioenergy production plants in Finland

Transcription

1 A full Supply chain optimization model to locate the forest biomass-based bioenergy production plants in Finland Karthikeyan Natarajan a, Sylvain Leduc b, Paavo Pelkonen a, Erik Dotzauer c, Erkki Tomppo d, auniversity of Eastern Finland (UEF), FI-811 Joensuu, Finland, binternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria cmälardalen University, SE-72123, Västerås, Sweden dfinnish Forest Research Institute (METLA), FI-131 Vantaa, Finland

2 Contents Bioenergy in Finland BeWhere Finland Model inputs Model results regional and national Future dimension

3 Background 22 Renewable energy targets of Finland: 38% renewable energy share (from 25% 29 ) 25.2 PJ / 2% minimum biofuel distribution requirement (double counting) National Renewable Energy Action Plan: 13.5 Mm 3 forest chips use (from 6 Mm 3 29 ) Measures Incentives e.g, wood incentive per MWh electricity and linked with CO2 price. Subsidies for small wood procurement eg. Thinning Mandatory blending % with fossil transport fuels

4 Biomass supply Transport network.road origin destination.rail Forest Sawmill Import Candidate sites.close to biomass supply.close to energy demand.pulp & paper industry.ports Energy demand.transport fuel.district heating origin terminal destination CHP Pellet Pulp mill Bioenergy BeWhere Finland Biomass.harvesting.forwarding.chipping.storage Biomass supply Parameters.biofuel yield.heat yield.electricity yield.emission factor Bioenergy supply chain costs Biomass transport.truck.train Production.investment.operation & maintenance.interest rate Bioenergy production Constraints.biomass supply.production plant.energy demand.heat transport Biodiesel transport.truck.train Distribution.fuel station Heat Demand Biofuel demand Other costs.fossil fuel.heat price.electricity price Model results 1.plant no 2.optimal location 3.Size 4.biomass area 5.biomass share 6.biofuel sold 7.heat sold 8.electricity sold 9. minimized costs a.biomass b.transport c.production d.fuel station 1.biofuel cost 11.CO 2 emissions 12.parameter sensitivity 13.biofuelblend 14.import &export

5 Flow of Feedstock and energy

6 Spatial distribution of feedstock resources

7 Transport Network

8 Energy demand

9 Scenarios for 22 biofuel target Base Scenario Feedstock availability Industrial competition Parameter costs and energy price

10 Cost-optimal locations Five FTplants : Rovaniemi, Lapinjärvi, Rauma, Salo, Kauhava >9 times Minimised transportation costs means abundant feedstock supply and high energy demand Max heat transport distance

11 Cost breakdown of biodiesel production supply chain P3 produces the cheapest biodiesel. Unit cost varied between /GJ and /GJ without any by-product sales. 1% 7% 8% 8% 13% 8% 6% Biomass Cost Sawmill Residuals Cost Biomass Transport Production Cost Biofuel Transport M Forest biomass Sawmill residual Biomass transport Production Biodiesel transport Distribution Heat income Electricity income 49% Distribution Cost Heat Income -2 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 Electricity Income

12 Biomass supply and feedstock resource allocation 6 Energywood Sawmill residual 6 Energywood Sawmill residual 5 5 Feedstock used (PJ) Feedstock used (PJ) Forest harvesting (%) Industrial competition (%)

13 Costs and feedstock resource allocation 3% decrease would completely substitute sawmill residuals 3% increase = 4% energy wood + 51% pulpwood + 9% sawmill residuals 4% increase = pulpwood replace energywood completely Feedstock used (PJ) Energywood Sawmill residual Pulpwood Cost ( /GJ) -3% -2% -1% % 1 % 2 % 3 % Feedstock cost Energywood cost (%) Feedstock transport FTbiodiesel cost

14 Costs and feedstock resource allocation 6 Energywood Sawmill residual Pulpwood 6 Energywood Sawmill residual 5 5 Feedstock used (PJ) Feedstock used (PJ) Pulpwood cost (%) Sawmill residual cost (%) Maximum pulpwood utilization potential at -3% SMR price no influence as maximum utilization potential is reached

15 Costs and feedstock resource allocation 31 PJ of wood imports used when 4% decrease in cost Cost changes in energywood, pulpwood and sawmill residuals did not influence Because: Expensive Longer transport distance Feedstock used (PJ) Energywood Sawmill residual Wood import Wood import cost (%)

16 Influence of biofuel import price, fossil diesel price and carbon tax on the 22 biofuel target FT-biodiesel production 3 FT-biodiesel production Biofuel import 3 FT-biodiesel production Fossil diesel consumption 3 Biofuel import Fossil diesel consumption Biofuel target (PJ) Biofuel target (PJ) Biofuel target (PJ) Biofuel import price (%) Fossil diesel price (%) Carbon tax ( /tco2)

17 Parameter sensitivity analysis Variation of FT-biodiesel cost (%) Feedstock share Industrial demand Energywood cost Transport cost Investment cost Heat price Electricity price Plant size Conversion efficiency Parameter change (%)

18 Eastern Finland - Model Scheme

19 Optimal plant locations Influence of CO 2 cost on technology diffusion and emission savings

20 Future work Employment Social Sustainability Environment Economy LCA

21 THANK YOU!