An Overview of the Desert Research Institute and Its Cloud Seeding Program

Transcription

1 An Overview of the Desert Research Institute and Its Cloud Seeding Program J.S. Tilley, A.W.Huggins, R. David, K. Texeira, J. Dean, M. Fearon, S. Chai and J. Broglio Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV WMA Annual Meeting 23 April 2014

2 DRI s Vision and Mission Global leader in providing science, technology and innovation to sustain Earth s environment and to improve people s lives. Excel in environmental research Foster scientific talent Contribute to Innovation Based Economic Development Apply knowledge & technology to enhance management and sustainability of natural resources and earth s systems The world is faced with challenges in all three dimensions of sustainable development - economic, social and environmental. - UN World Economic and Social Survey 2013: Sustainable Development Challenges 2

3 Research Benefiting Nevada Above: DRI s Weather Modification Program is collaborating with Reno based company, Drone America, to innovate cloud seeding technologies for enhancing mountain snowpack Right: Community Environmental Monitoring Program monitors for radiation in the region surrounding the Nevada Test Site. 3

4 Nevada s Global Research Institution 4

5 Added Value to Higher Education 5 Key Points: Approximately 50 faculty teaching and advising students at present There are students supported at DRI DRI invests ~ $1.6 M/year (non-state funds) for support of grad students at UNLV and UNR Provides practical and real world work experience for graduate students throughout Nevada UNR classes: Atmospheric Sciences Hydrologic Sciences Other (anthropology, geology, biology, engineering, etc.) UNLV classes: Water Resource Management Other (anthropology, biology, chemistry, engineering, environmental studies, geology, etc.) Nevada State College

6 K-12 Education & Outreach GreenPower Mission To support Nevada's prek-12 educators in science-based, environmental education by providing the tools, resources, and knowledge they need. GreenPower Vision We aim to increase scientific knowledge and understanding of the earth's environment, promoting preservation of diverse ecosystems, advancing responsible resource management, and improving human health and welfare. Areas of Focus: Educator Trainings School Site Support Green Boxes Community Outreach Major Funding Partner Additional sponsors 6

7 FAA Test Site Designation UAV work at DRI 7 Acquire new platforms Fixed wing and helicopter Design and develop smaller sensors T-Probe, chemical ion sensors Develop new sensor packages Miniaturized cloud radar, cloud meteorology sensors Increase number and type of applications Cloud seeding and atmospheric profiling Water and Ecosystem monitoring, Wildfire monitoring, real-time analysis, Post-disaster surveys Data analytics and visualization Student internships and training

8 Conceptual Diagram of Orographic Cloud Seeding Ground-based seeding with silver iodide -10C -5C

9 DRI s History in Cloud Seeding: An Example

10 DRI Cloud Seeding Facilities 17 remote-controlled RC, portable AgI generators in Nevada 5 RC AgI generators in Colorado 1 Propane dispenser in Colorado Several weather stations, most at generator sites Technical/fabrication facility with three dedicated technicians Trace Chemistry Laboratory with Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometer

11 Generator Interior at Ward Peak (Alpine Meadows Ski Area)

12 Operational Seeding: WY2014 NV Project Areas Tahoe-Truckee Schell Creek (in permitting) Walker

13 Cloud Seeding in the Tahoe-Truckee Basin CA-NV Border Sierra Nevada Mountain Range CA/NV border: Dashed blue lines show pathways from ground generator sites (in blue) to SNOTEL sites (in red)

14 DRI Particle Dispersion Model Use in Choosing Seeding Sites Two DRI ground Generator sites in Tahoe-Truckee Basin (Ward/Bunker) Lagrangian Stochastic Dispersion model (Koracin et al. 2007) driven by MM5 forecast Now can be done with WRF

15 Generator Hours by Month Gen Hours Tahoe-Truckee WY2013 Generator Statistics Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Seeding Events by Month Events Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013

16 Summary of past 16 yr. Tahoe-Truckee Seeding WY2013 similar to WY2012 and above longer-term avg. of # seeding hours/water augmentation Seeding late season storms w/ convective elements embedded made difference. Water augmentation estimates based on seeding efficiency == f( forecast accuracy, generator efficiency, obs. SWE)

17 Walker Basin Seeding CA-NV Border

18 Walker Basin Generator Hours by Month Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Walker Basin WY2013 Generator Statistics Walker Basin Seeding Events by Month Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013

19 Water Augmentation and Aircraft Seeding DRI currently contracts w/ Weather Modification, Inc. for aircraftbased seeding in the Walker Basin WY2013 Walker Aircraft Seeding Data Flight # Date Flight Track Flight Hours Temp C Wind1 (dir/spd) Wind2 (dir/spd) Flares Used AgI Released (grams) % of AgI Release 1 12/12/12 W / % 2 12/17/12 W / % 3 12/21/12 W /-6 226/41 234/ % 4 12/23/12 W % 5 12/26/12 W /33 223/ % 6 01/10/13 W-2/ /61 183/ % 7 02/19/13 W /47 215/ % 8 03/06/13 W / /53 225/ % Totals Table 2. Snow water augmentation estimates for the Walker Basin in WY2013. Snow Water Rate Seeding Seeding Seedability Factor Increase (AF/hour) Project Area Method Hours (SF) Walker Basin Snow Water Increase (acre-ft) Ground ,577 Aircraft ,937 Both Types ,514

20 WY2014 New Eastern NV Project Areas (blue shading) in eastern Nevada comprising new target areas. Possible seeding sites tested with a plume dispersion model are indicated by blue pins and green flags. SNOTEL or snow course sites are shown by red Xs. Red and yellow shaded areas represent specific creek drainages and purple triangles show stream gauge locations.

21 WY2013 Colorado Projects Winter Park Grand Mesa SW CO

22 Winter Park, CO Project Winter Park Operation of two generators and weather station All generator/ wx station maintenance Analysis of seeding efficiency/effectiveness New for WY2014: snow sampling and chemistry analysis. CAIC WRF model products for Winter Park Ski Resort. Output variables are 84-hour plots of the height of the -5 o C level, the 700 mb (~10,000 ft altitude) temperature, 700 mb wind speed and direction, precipitation. The period shown is 0000 MST 10 June MST 13 June.

23 DRI Seeding Operations: Forecasting and Targeting DRI's main cloud seeding page 24/7 operations; minimum operation duration one hour; restarts of generators for sudden improvements in conditions at less than hourly increments if needed METARs, NEXRAD, Ski Resort webcams, MesoWest mesonet and DRI WRF runs and weather station info from Seeding Weather Info page Various publicly available sites (NCAR/RAL, NCEP, TwisterData, PSU e-wall) for model output Twice daily (02-03/14-15UTC) forecast discussions of type on right, with 3-6 hourly intermediate updates (generally only as Nowcasts) as needed; also WMI discussions for Walker Use of dual-pol data/loops (Zdr, hydromet type, hi-res reflectivity) NWS Dual Pol radar product page.

24 WY2013 Tahoe Seeding Events Most fit conventional seeding criteria for basin Very few events mid Jan-mid March Longer Duration than Late Season (Mar/Apr) Events w/ embedded convection

25 DRI s Long History of Cloud Seeding Research All the links in the chain of the conceptual model have been verified in physical case studies Ice crystal and precipitation enhancement have been verified through physical observations Precipitation enhancement has been documented by statistical methods in several projects where results were also validated by physical measurements Trace chemical techniques are used to validate targeting and confirm the process of ice nucleation by cloud seeding

26 Research: Trace Chemistry Analysis (WWMPP, Winter Park) Input of Ag from erosion and sediments primary source of Ag to fresh water bodies. Other large sources include industrial effluent, sewage and storm water. Atmospheric sources other than dust include fossil fuel combustion, metal smelting, cement production and cloud seeding. Non-ice nucleating particles used in combination with AgI can be used to differentiate between nucleation and scavenging processes in target area snowfall. Erosion, Mining Coal & oil combustion Iron & steel smelting Cement production Dust Rain & snow From Edwards WMA 2009 Cloud seeding Industrial eff. Sewage Storm water Water Sediments

27 WY2013 Projects: WWMPP Chemistry Southern WY sites 2008 Snowboard Sites Generator Snotel Water/Soil Site Snow Site Sierra Madre Medicine Bow

28 WY2013 Projects: WWMPP Chemistry Northwest WY sites Generator RAWS/ Precip Gage Snotel Water/Soil Site Snow Site Upwind Soil Site

29 Trace Chemistry Revisited Mean Ag for all years at or below previously observed backgrounds, though a clear declining trend exists. Median s Ag values even lower w/ s near or above means/medians. High s suggests that seeding signatures must be in each dataset, but for WY2011 Elk R. samples gave overall highest values. WY results performed by same analyst; not so for WY2008.

30 Joint DRI-Drone America Venture Cloud Seeding with the Phoebus-2

31 NSF Cloud /Aerosol Physics Project overview Goal: Gain improved understanding of cloud-aerosol interactions within both warm and cold-season clouds via UAS technologies Secondary Goal #1: development of (1) Ka-band cloud radar and (2) aerosol instrumentation (for CCN, CN concentration/distribution and chemistry) suitable for deployment on Small UAS Class 2 or larger platforms Secondary Goal #2: Better understand how to utilize/assimilate UAS-borne cloud/aerosol/state variable data in numerical models for weather and climate applications NASA Interest (Secondary Goal #3): Validation/improvement of satellite algorithms for cloud and aerosol properties

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33 Extra Slides

34 Operations by Western Weather Consultants SW CO seeding analysis WY2013

35 Winter Park Generator Statistics WY seeding events