EDUCATION AND RELIGION

Transcription

1 DUCATION AND RLIGION by dward L. Glaeser Harvard Unversty and NR and ruce I. Sacerdote 1 Dartmouth College and NR February 14, 2002 Abstract In the Unted States, relgous attendance rses sharply wth educaton across ndvduals, but relgous attendance declnes sharply wth educaton across denomnatons. Ths puzzle s explaned f educaton both ncreases the returns to socal connecton and reduces the extent of relgous belef, and f belefs are closely lnked to denomnatons. The postve effect of educaton on socal connecton s the result of both treatment and selecton: schoolng creates socal sklls and people who are good at sttng stll. And, people who are nnately better at lstenng have lower costs of both school and socal actvtes, such as church. The negatve effect of educaton on relgous belef occurs because secular educaton emphaszes secular belefs that are at odds wth many tradtonal relgous vews. 1 Glaeser and Sacerdote both thank the Natonal Scence Foundaton for fnancal support. Gary ecker, dward Lazear, Davd Labson, N. Gregory Mankw, Nancy A. Schwartz, Lawrence Summers, Steven Tadels, and Andre Shlefer provded helpful dscussons. Jesse Shapro gave us hs usual superb research assstance. 1

2 I. Introducton In the Unted States, church attendance rses wth educaton. 2 Ffty percent of college graduates born after 1945 attend church more than several tmes per year. 3 Only thrty sx percent of hgh school dropouts, born durng the same perod, attend church that often. Fgure 1 shows the mean attendance level by level of educaton. In a unvarate regresson, a one-standard devaton ncrease n schoolng rases church attendance by.12 standard devatons (see Table 1). When we control for other factors, the relatonshp between educaton and relgous attendance gets stronger. In many multvarate regressons, educaton s the most statstcally mportant factor explanng church attendance. ut across relgous groups or denomnatons, church attendance declnes wth educaton. In the most educated Chrstan denomnaton, pscopalansm, the medan person attends church several tmes per year. In the least educated major denomnaton, the aptst groups, the medan person attends church once per month. In the General Socal Survey, members of the group wth the least educaton, "other denomnaton Protestants", have the most relgous attendance. 4 Fgure 2 shows the negatve 86 percent correlaton between average educaton and average relgous attendance across denomnatons. The goal of ths paper s to understand why the denomnaton-level connecton between educaton and relgon has the opposte sgn of the ndvdual-level connecton between these varables. A swtch n the sgn of a coeffcent between ndvdual-level and group-level regressons occurs when there s omtted factor that dffers across groups. If ths omtted factor has the same postve mpact on the outcome as the man explanatory varable, then ths omtted factor must be negatvely correlated wth the explanatory varable. Furthermore, as we show n Secton III, the key condton for a mcro-macro coeffcent swtch s that the mpact of the omtted factor on the outcome tmes the degree to whch there s sortng across groups on the bass of ths omtted factor must be greater than the mpact of the explanatory varable on the outcome tmes the degree to whch there s sortng across groups on the bass of the explanatory varable. Thus, 2 Iannaconne (1998) provdes an excellent ntroducton to the economcs of relgon, and shows ths fact n Table 1 of hs paper. 3 Our prmary evdence on relgous attendance s the General Socal Survey, where respondents descrbe ther attendance by puttng ther attendance n categores such as attendng several tmes per year. Mean attendance levels are calculated by averagng categorcal varables as explaned n the data descrpton secton. 4 Ths group ncludes Protestants who are not members of a major denomnaton such as Mormons, Pentacostalsts and Jehovah s Wtnesses. 2

3 mcro-macro sgn swtches can occur when there s an omtted factor that s negatvely correlated wth the explanatory varable and when the omtted factor s partcularly mportant n determnng the outcome or partcularly mportant n determnng sortng across groups. In the context of relgon and educaton, the most natural omtted factor s the degree of relgous belef,.e. the extent to whch ndvduals beleve that there are returns to relgous actvty. 5 Measures of relgous belef are strongly correlated wth relgous attendance and negatvely assocated wth educaton. Less educated people are more lkely to beleve n mracles, heaven, devls, and the lteral truth of the ble. Furthermore, denomnatons are, to a sgnfcant extent, defned by ther belefs, and unsurprsngly sortng across denomnatons on the bass of relgous belefs s stronger than sortng across denomnatons on the bass of educaton. As such, relgous belef s a natural omtted factor that s negatvely correlated wth educaton, postvely correlated wth attendance and very mportant for sortng across denomnatons. In ths paper, we craft a smple statstcal model of relgous attendance, educaton and belef and then we estmate that model. We then try to explan why educaton ncreases church attendance and decreases the extent of relgous belef. We present evdence supportng the dea that the postve relatonshp between educaton and attendance s the result of omtted factors (such as nterests and socal sklls), whch relate both to church-gong and school attendance. oth actvtes requre sttng stll, lstenng, beng nterested n abstract deas and puttng future gans ahead of current gratfcaton. We show the connecton between educaton and a wde range of formal socal actvtes that requre smlar sklls and nterests as church-gong. Church attendance s formal socal actvty, and snce educaton s correlated wth every other such actvty, we shouldn t be surprsed that educaton postvely predcts church attendance. The negatve relatonshp between relgous belefs and educaton occurs because the content of secular educaton and relgon often oppose one another. Modern educaton tends to emphasze secular humansm not fath. Many poneers of socal scence thought that scence dsproved relgon and that knowledge dspels relgous belef. 6 Snce these socal scentsts nfluenced secular educaton sgnfcantly, ther vews nevtably had weght. In the 19 th century, publc 5 Azz and hrenberg (1975) began the modern economcs lterature on relgon wth the vew that belefs about the hereafter drve relgous attendance. 6 Marx, Weber, Freud and partcularly Comte all held to varants of ths vew. Frank Knght s perhaps the economst who was most famously hostle to relgon. Interestngly, Stark, Iannacone and Fnk, (1996) fnd that hard scentsts are more lkely to be relgous than socal scentsts. These authors are extremely crtcal of the dea that knowledge elmnates relgon. Of course, formal schoolng and knowledge are not the same thng. 3

4 educaton n the U.S. and elsewhere was desgned, n part, to replace Catholc relgous belefs wth a secular, natonalst belef system. In our data, there does appear to be somethng of a treatment effect where educaton reduces relgous belefs. The causalty seems to go n both drectons as many Chrstan deas explctly downplay the value of secular success, and as a result people who come from hgher belef denomnatons nvest less n secular educaton. The facts n ths paper hghlght two mportant aspects of relgon and two mportant aspects of educaton. Relgon provdes sprtual returns and more earthly socal returns. The very dstnct nature of these two aspects of relgon can create oddtes lke the mcro-macro swtch n the educaton relgon relatonshp. ducaton s lnked both to the formaton of deologcal belefs and to socal nvolvement (Putnam, 2000). As owles and Gnts (1976) and Lott (1990) emphasze, deologcal correlates of educaton are ubqutous and nclude atttudes towards race (more educated people are less dscrmnatory), nternatonal poltcs and God. The fact that educaton both changes belefs and s correlated wth more socablty can lead more educated people to attend church more often and to beleve less n the thngs preached from the pulpt. In Secton II of ths paper we document our basc facts about the connecton between educaton and relgous attendance. In Secton III, we sketch a statstcal framework to understand when ndvdual-level relatonshps and group-level relatonshps have dfferent sgns and. can coexst wth a negatve denomnaton-level educaton-relgon relatonshp. Secton IV presents evdence that secular educaton and relgous belefs are substtutes. In Secton V, we look at the extent of sortng across denomnaton by educaton and belefs. In Secton VI, we examne the mpact of educaton and belefs on attendance and try to explan why there s a postve effect of educaton on attendance. Fnally, n Secton VII, we present an economc model that fts wth our nterpretatons and that ratonalzes the statstcal model n Secton III. Secton VIII concludes. II. General Facts about ducaton and Relgon In ths secton, we document the postve relatonshp between educaton and church attendance across people and the negatve relatonshp across denomnatons. Data Descrpton: The General Socal Survey (GSS) provdes the largest sample sze and rchest set of covarates of any U.S. data set wth questons on relgous belefs and 4

5 attendance. very two years, the GSS surveys approxmately 1500 randomly selected people n metropoltan and rural areas across the U.S.. Appendx I gves a detaled descrpton of the data. We also use nternatonal data from the World Values Survey whch has smaller data samples for 69 countres. In addton to askng questons about relgous and other belefs, the GSS also collects standard demographc nformaton about the respondent, the respondent's other famly members, the respondent's parents, and some hstorcal nformaton about the ndvdual hmself. For both current and past relgous afflatons, respondents are asked frst to characterze ther relgous afflaton as Jewsh, Catholc, Protestant, other relgon, or no relgon. Respondents who answer Protestant are then asked to dentfy ther denomnaton from the followng lst: pscopal, Methodst, Lutheran, Presbyteran, aptst, other denomnaton, or no denomnaton. 7 Our outcome varables nclude relgous attendance, prayer, membershp n church and nonchurch organzatons, and belef n the followng concepts: mracles, heaven, the Devl, and the lteral truth of the ble. We use years of schoolng to measure the respondent s educaton. Our varable for relgous attendance orgnally took on values from zero to eght. The eght categores are never attendng, attendng less than once per year, attendng about once or twce per year, attendng several tmes per year, attendng about once per month, attendng two to three tmes, attendng nearly every week, attendng every week, and attendng several tmes per week. We standardze educaton and attendance n both the GSS and the World Values Survey so that they are mean zero, varance one wthn the relevant sample. ducaton and Relgon across People: The basc relatonshp between educaton and relgous attendance s documented n Table 1. As mentoned earler, both educaton and attendance are presented as standardzed varables wth a mean of zero and varance of one. In the frst regresson, we show the smplest unvarate relatonshp between educaton and relgon. ecause there are sgnfcant relatonshps between cohort and both age and attendance (people from older cohorts attend church less and have less educaton), we restrct ourselves to people born after 1945 to mnmze cohort effects. 8 We fnd smlar results for older cohorts. In 7 No further nformaton s avalable about respondents who lst other relgon or other denomnaton Protestant as ther afflaton. 8 Greeley (1989) fnds lttle secular trend n relgous adherence. However, we do fnd substantal cohort effects n the General Socal Survey, especally once we control for age. 5

6 regresson (1), a one standard devaton ncrease n educaton rases relgous attendance by.12 standard devatons. The t-statstc on ths relatonshp s 15 t s statstcally a very strong relatonshp wth a reasonably large magntude. To check for possble non-lneartes n ths relatonshp, Fgure 1 shows the average value of our normalzed relgon varable for dfferent educaton levels (agan only for people after 1945). Relgous attendance among people wth 16 years of schoolng s.5 standard devatons hgher than relgous attendance among ndvduals wth ten years of educaton. The relatonshp seems qute lnear and strong untl we look at people wth more than 16 years of schoolng where attendance declnes somewhat wth educaton. In the second regresson, we nclude denomnaton dummes, and examne the extent to whch attendance rses wth educaton wthn denomnatons. The coeffcent on educaton rses: a one standard devaton ncrease n educaton s now assocated wth a.16 standard devaton rse n relgous attendance (the t-statstc on ths coeffcent s now 20). The coeffcents on the denomnaton dummes are qute strong. In the thrd regresson, we nclude other demographc controls, and n the fourth regresson we show results for our entre sample. The estmated coeffcents on the controls correspond wth earler work n ths area. There s a weak postve relatonshp between attendance and ncome. Older people are more lkely to attend church (as n Azz and hrenberg, 1975). lacks and women have much hgher attendance levels. Marred people are more lkely to attend, especally f they have chldren. Across regons, attendance s hghest n the south and lowest n the west. There s a negatve relatonshp between cty-sze and attendance. The educaton coeffcent s qute constant through these dfferent specfcatons. In regresson (3) the coeffcent s.189 and n regresson (4) the coeffcent s In Table 2, we look at these relatonshps across a broader set of countres usng the World Values Survey. 10 In many places, the relatonshp contnues to be postve. For example, the postve relatonshp seen n the U.S. also exsts n Great rtan, Span, Sweden and France. ut n many countres, the relatonshp s negatve. In Poland, Ukrane, Russa, and Romana, the 9 When we look at ndvdual denomnatons, we fnd strong postve coeffcents n almost all of the denomnatons except for Presbyterans, pscopalans and Jews, whch are the hghest educaton denomnatons. 10 Smth, Sawkns and Seaman (1998) also present results on relgous attendance usng the ISSP, another nternatonal data set. 6

7 relatonshp s robustly negatve. In many countres the relatonshp s not statstcally sgnfcant. We wll try to explan these puzzlng cross-country dfferences later n the paper. ducaton and Relgon across Denomnatons: Whle the postve relatonshp between educaton and attendance at the ndvdual level wthn the U.S. s qute strong, the negatve relatonshp between educaton and attendance at the denomnaton level s also mpressve as seen n Tables 3 and Fgure 2. We measure attendance wth the denomnaton specfc fxed effects from Table 1; our results would be qute smlar f we just used the mean attendance level. Table 3 shows the dfferences across denomnatons. There s a -86 percent correlaton across denomnatons between average educaton and average attendance. In a regresson format the relatonshp across denomnatons s (among people born snce 1945): (1) Attendance= *educaton, N=10, R-Squared=.64 (.055) (.135) Standard errors are n parentheses. The lowest educaton denomnaton s the aptsts who have the second hghest attendance level, measured ether as a group average or as the denomnaton fxed effect. The second lowest educaton group s the Other Denomnaton Protestants. Ths s a heterogenous, fast growng group, whch ncludes fundamentalst groups and Mormons. Other Denomnaton Protestants have a much hgher level of attendance than any group. Among Chrstan denomnatons, Presbyterans and pscopalans have the hghest educaton levels and the lowest attendance (lookng at fxed effects). Jews are by far the most educated and by far the least lkely to attend servces. Wthn Judasm, the two more educated groups (reform and conservatve) have lower attendance levels than the less educated orthodox Jews. 11 Few other countres have the range of denomnatonal dversty of the U.S. However, when there s dversty, t generally follows the U.S. pattern. For example, n ngland the more hghly educated groups have the least attendance. In West Germany and Swtzerland where there are 11 Two other groups, people n other relgons and non-denomnatonal Protestants, ft the basc relatonshps less well. Ths may occur because they are unusual and heterogeneous groups. The low attendance of nondenomnatonal Protestants s unsurprsng as ths group s defned by ts relatvely low afflaton wth any formal group. 7

8 substantal Catholc and Protestant populatons, the Protestant groups have more educaton and are less lkely to attend church. III. A Statstcal Framework Changes n the sgn of a relatonshp between ndvdual-level and group-level regressons can occur when the key ndependent varable s correlated wth a thrd varable that has a drect, opposte effect on the outcome and when ths thrd varable s related to the sortng across macrogroups. The key condton for a ndvdual level/group level swtch s that the thrd varable tmes the degree to whch ths varable ncreases sortng across groups s greater than the mpact of the key ndependent varable tmes the degree to whch that varable nfluences sortng. Thus, ths sort of swtch s lkely f the thrd varable s ether very mportant n determnng the outcome or f qute mportant n determnng sortng across groups. In the relgon context, relgous belef s a partcularly natural thrd varable. We wll later document that t s negatvely correlated wth years of educaton and qute correlated wth denomnatonal sortng and wth relgous attendance. We assume that ndvduals are characterzed by educaton and relgous belefs, whch are standard normal varables, denoted and wth covarance δ. We defne belefs as those convctons whch drectly rase the perceved returns to relgous actvty, as such the connecton wth attendance s almost perfunctory. xamples of these belefs nclude ndvdual s subjectve probablty that there s an afterlfe or that payoffs n an afterlfe are lnked to relgous attendance. Attendance s assumed to be a standard normal varable that s a lnear functon of educaton and belefs as follows: A = + + ξ. The effect of havng hgher educaton on relgous attendance (holdng belefs constant) s denoted. As we wll dscuss later, we nterpret ths drect effect as capturng abltes or nterests whch smultaneously ncrease the returns or decrease the costs of both school attendance and church gong. The effect of havng stronger belefs on relgous attendance (holdng educaton constant) s denoted. oth and are postve. Gven ths framework the coeffcent from a unvarate regresson of attendance on educaton wll be δ. 8

9 Denomnatons are assumed to be just groups of ndvduals. There s no drect mpact of denomnaton on relgous attendance holdng belefs constant. ut there s sortng across denomnatons on the bass of both educaton and belefs. We assume that there s a contnuum of denomnatons, each ndexed wth j. Ths denomnaton ndex also has mean zero and varance one. We formalze sortng by assumng that for each ndvdual: µ = α j +, where upon j) equals zero. = α + µ and µ and µ are ndvdual error terms, whose expectaton (condtonal j The average belef n a denomnaton s therefore denomnaton s α j and the average educaton n a α j. We order j so that α > Hgher levels of α wll mply hgher levels of sortng by belef lower levels of denomnaton. Hgher levels of attendance n denomnaton j equals α mply that belefs are relatvely ndependent of α suggest hgher levels of sortng by educaton. The average ( α + α j. ) The coeffcent from a unvarate regresson across denomnatons where attendance s regressed on educaton wll equal α +. Ths term can obvously only be negatve as long as α α s negatve, so sortng by educaton and belef must go n opposte drectons (whch we have already documented n Table 3). The jont condton for attendance to rse wth educaton at the person level but for attendance to fall wth educaton at the denomnaton level s: 1 > δ α > α. If δ s small, then the bndng part of ths condton s that α > α, or the product of the mpact of belef tmes the degree of sortng on belef must be greater than the product of the mpact of educaton tmes the degree of sortng on educaton. The swtch n coeffcents requres that belefs be mportant relatve to educaton n ther effect on attendance or that belefs be mportant relatve to educaton n ther effect on sortng. We wll try to show three thngs emprcally. Frst, we wll show that there s a negatve connecton between belef and educaton and that ths effect s relatvely weak, whch ensures 12 For the covarance of and to equal δ the covarance of and, the covarance between µ and µ must equal δ α α. 9

10 that 1 δ >. Next we wll compute estmates of the magntude of the educaton and belef effects. Fnally, we wll calculate the extent to whch there s sortng across denomnatons on the bass of belefs and educaton. IV. ducaton and Relgous elef In ths secton, we frst show the negatve relatonshp between educaton and relgous belefs that we expect should mpact the perceved returns to attendance ether n daly lfe or n the hereafter. 13 Then we wll present a methodology for mappng our estmated coeffcents nto a range for the values of δ. We wll end ths secton by presentng our nterpretaton of why educaton and belefs are negatvely related. In Table IV, we look at the belef-educaton connecton wthn the Unted States usng four belef questons that should mpact the returns to relgous attendance. Frst, we look at the belef n heaven. The exstence of heaven would seem to be closely connected to the belef that relgous actvtes create tangble rewards after death. Second, we look at belef n mracles. Our nterpretaton s that mracles mply the actvty of a dety n everyday lfe. elef n the exstence of an actve dety means that there s a chance that ths dety wll reward the good before death. Our thrd dependant varable s the belef that the ble s lterally true. Snce the ble depcts many scenes n whch God actvely rewards hs adherents, exstence n the lteral truth of the ble mples the belef that God may reward the fathful. Fnally, we look at belef n the devl. Presumably, the exstence of the devl ncreases the need for God s protecton. We present three dfferent probt specfcatons n Table IV. In the frst row, we regress the belef varables on educaton wth no other controls. In the second specfcaton we nclude controls for ncome, age, martal status, gender, number of chldren and regon. In the thrd specfcaton, we nclude denomnaton fxed effects. If there s strong sortng by belefs across denomnatons, then ths thrd specfcaton wll underestmate the true educaton-belef connecton. Nonetheless, we nclude results wth denomnaton controls as an added check on the robustness of our results. We present margnal effects and standard probt coeffcents. 13 Greeley (1988) s a poneerng pece of socal scence on the correlates of belef n lfe after death. 10

11 Snce educaton s normalzed, the margnal effect s nterpreted as the mpact of a one-standard devaton ncrease n educaton. In the case of belef n heaven a one-standard devaton ncrease n educaton s assocated wth a reducton n the probablty of belef n heaven of between 4.2 and 5.6 percent. In the case of belef n mracles, the mpact of educaton s smaller and nsgnfcant. The effect of the belef n the ble as lteral truth s stronger a one-standard devaton ncrease n educaton reduces belef n the lteral truth of the ble between 2 and 3.6 percentage ponts. In the case of belef n the devl, a one-standard devaton ncrease n educaton decreases belefs between 1.6 and 4.7 percent. Table V looks at the belef-educaton relatonshps outsde of the Unted States usng the World Values Survey. We show results for three questons: belef n God, belef n Heaven and belef n the Devl. In ths case, we only nclude basc demographc controls: age, ncome, martal status and gender. In the frst column our dependent varable s belef n God. In all but one of the countres (Swtzerland s the excepton) n ths table there s a negatve relatonshp between years of educaton and belef n God, and n many of the countres ths relatonshp s statstcally sgnfcant. In the second column, we look at belef n heaven. In ths case, agan only one of the coeffcents s postve. Our thrd column looks at belef n the Devl. In ths case, results are more mxed. Stll, there s only one statstcally sgnfcant postve coeffcent. Overall, there s an mpressve negatve relatonshp between educaton and relgous belefs. stmatng the Value of δ : At ths pont, we wrte down a framework that can translate these coeffcents nto estmates of δ -- the covarance of educaton and belefs n the model. Followng the model, we assume that each ndvdual has a baselne ntensty of belef, denoted. ach ndvdual queston reflects a combnaton of ths baselne belef and a queston-specfc error term, denoted ε that s normally dstrbuted and ndependent of baselne belefs. Ths queston specfc error term reflects the fact that some people may feel ntensely about heaven and other people may feel ntensely about mracles. Thus, for each queston, there s a queston specfc belef ntensty to ω + ε. whch we assume s a standard normal varable that s equal To connect the observed dscrete answers wth the contnuous underlyng varables, we assume that each queston has a cutoff value k and ndvduals answer yes to the queston f and only f ω + ε s greater than k. If belefs and educaton are jontly normally dstrbuted (whch we 11

12 assume) then can be wrtten as δ + ξ. Indvduals answer yes f and only f ω + s greater than k, or f φ( ω ξ + ε ) > φ( k δω e). The value of φ s a ξ δω ε j constant chosen so that the varance of φ ω ξ + ε ) equals one, whch mples ( 2 2 φ = 1/(1 δ ), and we assume that φ ω ξ + ε ) s normally dstrbuted so that the problem ω ( can then be ft nto a standard Probt estmaton framework. A Probt regresson estmates the values of φ k and φδω usng the fact that the probablty that a φ respondent wll answer no to a belef queston equals to k φδω e f ( ν ) dν where ν s a mean zero, varance one varable. If the estmate of φδω equals some value x, then t must be true x 1 that δ equals 2 ω 1+ x, so to recover the value of δ we must solve for ω. The value of ω can be found by usng the covarance n answers to dfferent belef questons, f we assume jont normalty of the answers to the dfferent belef questons. We wll consder two belef questons and whch have dfferent cutoff values, k and k but where As such and ω = ω = ω. are normal varables wth mean zero and varance one and wth covarance - ω. The values of k and k are drectly mpled by the proporton of the populaton that answers yes to the two questons. The value of ω can be nferred from the share of the populaton that answers no to both questons. More precsely f we let Share(0,0) denote the fracton of the populaton that answers no to both belef questons, then ths value solves: k k ( + + 2ω ) j 1 2 2(1 ω ) (2) Share(0,0) = e dd 2 2π 1 ω 2 2 Snce we have four dfferent belef varables that we are usng n the General Socal Survey, we can estmate the covarance of belefs (.e. ω ) wth sx dfferent pars of belef varables. When we do the sx values of ω that we estmate are.78,.80,.84,.85,.87 and.99. The hgh value represents the extremely hgh degree of overlap between belef n the devl and belef n heaven. Snce these values are tghtly grouped together, we wll use a value of.84 for our estmate of ω. Dfferent values of ω, wthn a reasonable range, do not cause our estmates to change substantally. 12

13 In Table IV, we show our mpled values of δ : these range from (for mracles wth denomnaton fxed effects) to.299 (for belef n heaven wth no other controls). Usng our full range of estmated values of ω, the range of values of δ s between and.33. We beleve that estmates wthout denomnaton fxed effects are the closest n sprt to the model. The value of δ n the mddle of the dstrbuton s about.13 whch s our preferred estmated based on a value of ω of.84. Note that ths value s farly nsenstve to dfferent values of would only rse to.14 f the lowest estmated value of ω s used. ω j and In Table V, we estmate the values of δ for the three dfferent belef varables for 19 countres. For the frst two belef questons, δ s almost unformly postve and les between zero and.3. For belef n the devl δ s occasonally negatve, and never greater than.21. In the crosscountry evdence, the value of δ s agan centered around.14, and agan t generally seems qute postve. If we take.14 as an average value of δ, then the swtch n coeffcents requres that must be less than seven tmes and we wll examne ths condton n the next secton. Now we brefly nterpret the negatve relatonshp between educaton and belefs. Why do relgous belefs declne wth educaton? We beleve that the heart of the negatve correlaton between educaton and belef s that deologes of churches and schools are dfferent. Schools often teach n a secular humanst tradton that vews relgon as a curosty or superstton. The scentfc clams of fundamentalst relgons are generally dsparaged n modern educatonal nsttutons. y some measures, school teachers tend to have lower levels of relgous belefs than average people. For example, 80 percent of teachers beleve n heaven relatve to 86 percent for the populaton as a whole. ducators as dsparate as Horace Mann, Dewey and Scopes (see Larson, 1985), have opposed establshed relgon n schools and educaton has often reflected ther secular deas. In the Unted States, publc schools have generally been strongly secular. In the 1840s, clergymen denounced the great champon of publc schoolng, Horace Mann, and the nascent common schools as Godless (Cremn, 1951). Certanly, relatvely to the relgous standards of the day, they were. In the early 19 th century, older state consttutons were amended to prohbt state fundng of relgous teachng, and new consttutons were crafted wth ths prohbton. Whle the 19 th century schools certanly used the ble, they were non-sectaran and non- 13

14 sectaransm mpled that schools were less relgous than the prevalng socety. In the relgous world of the 1800s, a school would have to be relatvely secular f, as requred by law, parents of all relgous sects, Mohammedans and Jews, as well as Chrstans, can send ther chldren to t, to receve the benefts of an educaton wthout dong volence to ther relgous belef (New York oard of Aldermen, 1825, quoted n Cremn, 1951). Why was publc educaton n the Unted States non-sectaran and ultmately secularzng? The answer les n the functon of publc schools. Support for publc schools came from a desre to transform dsparate, often troublesome groups nto a unfed, patrotc, well-nformed ctzenry. As Governor Seward of New York wrote n 1842: the populaton of the cty of New York, s by no means homogeneous; on the contrary, t s the object of educaton to make t so (p. 172 n Cremn, 1951). As such, publc schools were non-sectaran so they would attract parents of all relgous sects, and they taught a secular natonalsm amed at homogenzng the ctzenry, especally the recent Catholc mmgrants. In some cases, the rules forbddng state fundng of relgous educaton were specfcally wrtten to deny money to Catholc schools. ventually, the schools evolved nto teachng a natonalst, not a relgous, deology that was at best ndfferent to the establshed churches. Outsde the U.S., the pro-state, ant-church bas of schools s even more obvous. For example, Hans (1966) wrtes that Sovet schools had to ndoctrnate all pupls n dogmatc athesm, because, after all, Marxsm and Chrstanty were clearly hostle belef systems. smark engaged n a kulturkampf aganst Catholcsm and used schools as a tool n hs battle wth the church. Nneteenth century French ant-clercalsm was also vrulent. Weber (1976) descrbes how the French state used educaton to replace Catholcsm wth a patrotc secular deology: A Catholc God, partcularst and only dentfed wth the fatherland by revsonsts after the turn of the century, was replaced by a secular God: the fatherland and ts lvng symbols, the army and the flag. Catechsm was replaced by cvc lessons. blcal hstory, proscrbed n secular schools, was replaced by the santed hstory of France (Weber, 1976, p. 336). Relgous belefs and educaton seem to be at odds, at least n part, because educaton was desgned to replace the older dentfcaton wth the Church wth a newer dentfcaton wth the state. 14

15 Of course, part of the negatve connecton between educaton and relgous belefs may also occur because Chrstanty often downplays secular achevements. Many statements n the Gospels (e.g. t s easer for a rch man to enter the kngdom of heaven than for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, blessed are the poor for thers s the kngdom of heaven ) suggest that relgous acts are much more mportant than secular goals, ncludng nvestment n human captal. Max Weber emphaszed the hostlty of tradtonal Catholcsm to secular achevements. 14 Moreover, f (followng Iannacone, 1992) strong relgous belefs create an oblgaton to donate wordly goods, then strong belefs wll create a relgon tax whch wll act to decrease the ncentve to nvest n secular educaton. 15 If educaton and relgon offer substtute belef systems and f relgous belefs downplay secular achevements or create a tax on earnngs, then we should expect that belefs reduce educatonal nvestment and educaton reduces the degree of belefs. To show that educaton reduces belefs, Table VI regresses belefs on educaton usng parents educaton as an nstrument for educaton of the chld. We nclude as controls, the denomnaton of the respondent at age 16 and the church attendance of the parent. For these nstruments to be vald, parental educaton must ncrease the educaton of the chld wthout havng a drect mpact on belefs. Naturally, usng parental educaton as an nstrument n ths regresson only makes sense f we can control for other nfluences that mght cause belefs and mght be correlated wth adult educaton. In three out of the four regressons, the mpact of educaton s strong and negatve. In the mracles regresson, the mpact of educaton s nsgnfcant. Whle the assumptons needed for these nstruments to be vald may be volated, we take ths table as suggestng that there s at least some evdence suggestng that there s a causal lnk where educaton reduces belefs. A second test of the causal lnk between educaton and belefs s to look at whether dfferences n school currcula nfluence adult belefs, or the mpact of educaton on adult belefs. A partcularly obvous determnant of school currcula across countres s communsm. In general, followng Marx s deep antpathy to relgon as the opate of the masses, communst countres used the educaton system to dscredt relgon. Hans (1966) wrtes the deology of the eastern 14 Notably, Weber also clams that Calvnst Protestantsm has a postve effect on nvestment. Of course, n our sample, Calvnst Protestantsm s strongly negatvely assocated wth belefs. 15 The tradtonal nsttuton of tthng represents a partcularly formal example of such a tax. Lkewse, f relgons support the poor, ths may have smlar ncentve effects. 15

16 part of urope s ant-catholc and s based not on tradtonal relgon but on a phlosophc concepton of recent orgn. As such, f educaton causally nfluences belefs, then the level of belefs should be lower n the former communst countres, and the mpact of educaton on belefs should also be lower n those places. To test ths, n Table VII we looked at the mean value of belefs and of dfferent values of δ n communst and non-communst countres. The values of δ were calculated as above treatng communst and non-communst areas as separate samples. In our estmates, we controlled for ncome, age, martal status, number of chldren and gender. We classfed communst countres as those whch were former members of the Warsaw Pact. Frst, we look at belef n God. 71 percent of respondents n Warsaw Pact countres say they beleve n God. 86 percent of respondents elsewhere say that they beleve n God. The dfference s extremely sgnfcant. Moreover, the mpact of educaton on belef (.e. the estmated value of δ ) s.165 for Warsaw Pact countres and.112 for non-warsaw Pact countres. Ths dfference s qute statstcally sgnfcant. Our second varable s belef n heaven. In ths case, 39.7 percent of respondents n Warsaw Pact countres say that they beleve percent of respondents outsde the former Warsaw Pact areas say that they beleve n heaven The estmated value of δ s.17 n Warsaw Pact countres and.12 n non-warsaw Pact countres. Fnally, we look at belef n the Devl. Here 34.5 percent of Warsaw Pact countres beleve n the Devl and 43.1 percent of non-warsaw Pact respondents beleve n the Devl. The estmate of δ s.105 n the Warsaw Pact countres and.017 elsewhere. The fact that belefs are lower n the former Warsaw Pact does confrm a predcton of our vew that communst countres used schools to damage relgon, but t also reflects the wde range of polces undertaken by those countres to fght aganst relgons. The sgnfcantly lower coeffcents on educaton (.e. hgher estmates of delta) are more surprsng and seem more lkely to be the result of the deologcal slant of communst schools. Whle these results are certanly not conclusve, they do suggest that belefs declne wth schoolng at least n some places because of the deologcal goals of the schools. To test the vew that hgher nnate belefs reduce educatonal nvestment, we regress educaton on belefs of denomnaton at age 16, holdng parental educaton constant. Whle ths s certanly not a strong test, denomnaton mght nfluence educaton for many reasons, and t provdes some 16

17 evdence that the lnks between educaton and belefs run n two drectons. For example, f we regress adult educaton on the average belef n the Devl of the respondent s denomnaton (as of year 16), holdng constant both mother s and father s educaton, age, cohort, gender, race and regon, we estmate the followng coeffcent: (3) ducaton = * Average Denomnatonal elef n Devl, (.066) 2 R =.32, N=23,211 The standard error s n parentheses and s corrected for wthn denomnaton correlaton of the error terms. There are of course many nterpretatons of ths regresson, but at least t rases the possblty that people wth hgher levels of ntal belefs are less lkely to acqure more educaton. 16 V. The Impact of ducaton and elefs on Attendance Our estmates of the ndvdual-level coeffcent of educaton n attendance regressons provde us wth estmates of δ. In Table I, these range from.12 to.18. In the prevous secton, we have estmated δ, and we beleve that t les between 0 and.3. Now we turn to estmatng δ by lookng at the correlaton between belefs and attendance (followng, among others, Azz and hrenberg, 1975). We wll estmate the value of δ by regressng attendance on belefs, but t s mportant to stress that the lnear relatonshp between attendance, educaton and belefs does not mply a causal model. Certanly, as Montgomery (1996) argues, attendance s lkely to nfluence belefs, and other varables wll nduce correlatons between belefs and attendance. As we are estmatng a statstcal, not an economc, model, we are not troubled by the drecton of causalty at ths pont. Our basc estmaton procedure uses the fact that our model mples that attendance equals δ plus error terms that have expected value zero condtonal upon belefs. As such: (4) ( A > k ) ( A < k ) = ( δ )( ( > k ) ( < k )), 16 Chswck (1983) and Tomes (1984) also document smlar facts. 17

18 where (.) represents the expectaton operator, represents the belefs along a partcular dmenson (.e. heaven) and k represents the cutoff for answerng yes to ths partcular belef queston. As such, ( A > k ) represents the mean value of attendance condtonal upon sayng yes to one of the belef questons. The value of ( A k ) ( A < k ) > wll be the estmated coeffcent when attendance s regressed on one of the belef questons. The frst column of Table VIII gves these values for our dfferent belef measures. We have estmated ( A k ) ( A < k ) > wth three specfcatons: no addtonal controls (whch s closest n sprt to the model), demographc controls and both demographc and denomnatonal controls. The dfferent specfcatons do not sgnfcantly mpact any of the effects of the dfferent belefs on attendance. In the case of belef n heaven, the estmated coeffcents range from.72 to.77. In the case of belef n mracles, the estmated coeffcents range from.58 to.62. In the case of belef n the lteral truth of the ble, the estmated coeffcents range from.6 to.67. In the case of belef n the Devl, the estmated coeffcents range from.5 to.53. In all cases, the coeffcents are qute sgnfcant and robust to alternatve specfcatons. To estmate the value of ( k ) ( < k ) that and >, we used numercal smulatons and the fact are standard normal varables wth covarance ω. We used a value of.84 for ω but our results are robust to a range of values. The value of k s drectly mpled by the share of respondents who answer yes to a partcular belef queston. Gven ths, t s straghtforward to estmate the dfferent values of ( k ) ( < k ) column of Table VIII gves these estmates. > for each belef queston. The second The fnal column of Table VIII gves our estmates of ( A > k ) ( A k ) by ( k ) ( < k ) < δ. Ths value s found by dvdng >. The range of estmates runs from.38 to.476. If we consder only the regressons wthout denomnaton controls, the estmates run from.40 to.476, and usng our standard error estmates we feel qute confdent that the values le between.3 and.6. As such, our benchmark estmate of δ s

19 If our estmate of δ equals x, our estmate of δ equals y, then 2 2 = ( x + δy) /(1 δ ) and our estmate of = ( y + δx) /(1 δ ). So f x=.45 and y=.15, and δ ranges from 0 to.3, then our estmate of from.15 to.31. The rato of to ranges from.45 to.54 and our estmate of ranges from 1.73 to 3. ven takng our low estmate of.4 for δ and our hgh estmate of.18 for δ, the lowest possble value of the rato of to s Thus, we wll tend to thnk that the mnmum value of ths rato s 1.5 and our best estmate of ths rato s Why s there a connecton between educaton and church attendance? We don t feel any need to explan why relgous belefs and church attendance would go together. However, the postve relatonshp between educaton and church attendance needs more of an explanaton. We thnk that the most straghtforward explanaton of ths phenomenon s that relgon s a formal socal actvty, and educaton s correlated wth all forms of formal socal actvty. We provde four peces of evdence suggestng that the postve connecton between educaton and attendance comes from a general postve connecton between schoolng and socal connecton. Frst, we show that schoolng s strongly assocated wth socal behavor of all forms, both n the U.S. and throughout the world. Second, we show that relgous attendance s hghly correlated wth other forms of socal actvty. Thrd, we show that schoolng s not correlated wth non-socal relgous behavor. Fnally, we show that among asocal ndvduals there s a much weaker postve connecton between schoolng and socal behavor. Table IX examnes the connecton between educaton and a varety of socal actvtes. Whle we have ncluded all of the control varables that we use elsewhere, we only report the coeffcents for educaton. For every varable, except for membershp n labor unons, there s a strong postve effect of educaton on membershp. The effect of educaton on relgous attendance s weaker than the effect of educaton on most other socal actvtes. Our summary varable s a normalzed (to a z-score) value of membershp n number of organzatons. Whle ths varable s generally referred to as number of organzatons, more precsely t refers to the number of dfferent types of organzatons of whch the ndvdual s a member. If an ndvdual s a member of one lterary socety and one sports organzaton ths would count as two, but f the ndvdual s a member of fve veterans organzatons ths wll only 19

20 count as one. The basc educaton coeffcent for ths varable s.293 ths coeffcent s much hgher than the educaton coeffcents n the relgon regressons. We also show that the number of close frends that an ndvdual reports havng rses wth educaton. Table X shows smlar results usng the World Values Survey for developed countres outsde of the Unted States. Across the world there s a strong postve relatonshp between educaton and socal membershp. There are two countres n ths restrcted sample where the educatonattendance relatonshp s negatve (Austra and Norway), but n these cases the coeffcent s not sgnfcant. In the full sample of 62 countres, there are only 4 cases where there s a negatve relatonshp between educaton and group membershp (Austra, Montenegro, Norway and the Phlppnes) and none of them are sgnfcant. Furthermore, the connecton between educaton and organzaton membershp s hgher than the connecton between educaton and relgon n all but 4 out of 62 countres (Fnland, Great rtan, Norway, and the Phlppnes). Whle far from conclusve, ths suggests that the relgon-educaton connecton may be only one example of a pervasve educaton-socal connecton relatonshp. Table XI presents further evdence on socal connecton and relgon. Regresson (1) shows that people who are more socal along other dmensons (as measured by membershp n organzatons) attend church more often. A one standard devaton ncrease n membershp n organzatons rases relgous attendance by.05 standard devatons. Regresson (2) shows that f we look only at asocal ndvduals (defned as ndvduals who are not members of any organzatons), the coeffcent on educaton n the basc relgon regresson (comparable to Table 1, Regresson 4) drops by two-thrds. Ths suggests that the educaton effect s workng through the general educaton-socal connecton relatonshp. Regressons (3) and (4) look at non-socal relgous actvtes. In regresson (3), we show that educaton s not correlated wth prayer, a relgous actvty that s presumably much less socal. In regresson (4), we show that educaton s orthogonal to feelng the presence of God. These more prvate forms of relgous connecton are not related to human captal. Tme dary evdence further documents and confrms that more educated people engage n dfferent socal actvtes from less educated people. For example, the 1995 Amercan Use of Tme Study Archve (generously provded to us by John Robnson) tells us that hgh school dropouts spend more than one hour per day more watchng televson than college graduates. 20

21 Hgh school dropouts also spend an extra 16 mnutes per day vstng and an extra 23 mnutes per day thnkng and relaxng. Hgh school dropouts also spend more tme n household chores and sleepng. The man actvty that flls up the tme of college graduates s work, but they also engage n more formal socal actvtes, readng and paperwork. Overall, these facts pant a pcture of lower levels of educaton beng assocated wth nformal nteracton and watchng televson whle hgher levels of educaton are more assocated wth formal socal actvtes that requre nvestment. Why do formal socal actvtes rse wth educaton? Our vew s that educaton s assocated wth lower costs of these actvtes. These lower costs probably come about both because of treatment and selecton. The treatment effect of educaton les n the socalzaton functon of schools (see, among others, owles and Gnts, 1976). Schools teach how to nteract wth others. Indeed, most of the key sklls taught n school (readng, wrtng, etc.) are fundamentally communcaton sklls. The selecton effect of educaton les n the fact that educaton requres many of the same sklls as other formal socal actvtes. Sttng stll and lstenng s a skll requred n both gong to church and gong to school. 17 V. Sortng Across Denomnatons In ths secton, we estmate the relatve magntude of sortng across denomnatons on the bass of belefs and sortng on the bass of educaton. At ths pont, we wll not address the mechansms that create the sortng, but we wll return to them at the end of ths secton. stmaton of the parameter α s qute straghtforward, and follows from the fact that the rato 2 of across denomnaton varance n educaton to total varance n educaton equals α. Snce we have normalzed the varance of educaton to equal one, the varance of the mean level of educaton across denomnatons just equals across denomnatons yelds an estmate of the mean level of educaton s.046, whch mples that α 2. The standard devaton of educaton levels α. We estmate the cross denomnaton varance n α equals Glaeser, Labson and Sacerdote (2000) suggest that ths schoolng socal captal connecton mght be explaned by rates of tme preference. 21

22 To measure the extent to whch there s sortng across denomnatons on the bass of belefs, we need to address the fact that the observed level of belef n a denomnaton represents the proporton of the populaton who sad yes to a one-zero queston. We use the facts that ω + ε = ωα j + ωµ + ε, to note that respondents say yes to a belef queston f and only = f ωµ + ε > k ωα j or κ( ωµ + ε ) > κ ( k ωα j). The value of κ s chosen so that the varance of κ ωµ + ε ) equals one, whch mples that κ = 1/(1 α 2 ω 2 ). ( The proporton of people n denomnaton j that answer no to belef queston, whch we denote N ( j) therefore equals ( ) 1 Φ k ωα j, where Φ (). s the cumulatve dstrbuton α ω 2 2 α ω ( ) = for a standard normal. Therefore Var ( N ( j) ) ( ) 1 In Table XII, we report the Var ( N ( j) ) Φ. 1 α ω Φ for each of the belef varables and the assocated value of α assumng that ω =. 84. The estmated values of α range from.33 to.505. We wll thnk of.42 as our preferred estmate of α. Thus the rato of α to α runs from -1.5 to These fndngs suggest that there s more sortng across denomnatons on the bass of belefs than there s sortng on the bass of educaton. Combnng the results of ths secton wth those of the prevous secton, we fnd that there s both more sortng on the bass of belefs than on the bass of educaton and that belefs have more of an mpact on attendance than educaton. If equals.5, and equals.23, and f α / α equals 1.5, the denomnaton level relatonshp of educaton and attendance s predcted to be -.47 whch s very close to our estmated denomnaton-level coeffcent n equaton one. Why s there sortng across denomnatons? Sortng across denomnatons reflects both the nfluence of denomnatons on belefs and ndvduals choosng denomnatons. Indeed swtchng denomnatons s a pretty pervasve phenomenon. 25 percent of respondents n the GSS have changed denomnatons between adulthood and the year they respond to the survey. Of these swtchers, 24 percent say that they swtch because of marrage and another 30 percent say that they swtch because of frends and famly. Ten percent say that they swtch because of locaton. Less than twenty percent say that they swtch because of theology and clergy. As 22

23 socal factors appear to domnate belef factors n swtchng, t s hard to beleve that the swtchng drves the strong degree of sortng on the bass of belefs. It s probably more natural to beleve that belefs are themselves created by the denomnaton of one s brth. Denomnatons are fundamentally defned by ther relgous doctrnes. Whle there are often sgnfcant socal dfferences across denomnatons, denomnatons are ultmately defned by relgous belefs. Indvdual denomnatons appear to be able to shelter a wde range of worshp styles (e.g. Hgh vs. Low pscopalans) and demographc groups, but people wthn a denomnaton generally share a core set of relgous belefs. New denomnatons usually form around leaders who have belefs that dffer from the belefs of exstng denomnatons. 18 In many cases, such as the aptsts or the Presbyterans, denomnatons orgnate among socal groups that are qute dfferent from the socal groups that currently make up these denomnatons. In general, hgh attendance denomnatons (e.g. Mormons, aptsts, Catholcs) strongly affrm rewards to relgous adherence, usually n the afterlfe. For example vans (1975) descrbes the Mormon belef that exaltaton (wth the hghest eternal opportuntes) must be earned by obedence to laws, ordnances, and commandments of the Kngdom. Hendrcks (1975) wrtes of Catholc theology that the more general belef s that unbaptzed babes are forever cut off from heaven. 19 Ths s not surprsng as the Catholc Catechsm (1995) states that the Church does not know of any means other than aptsm that assures entry nto eternal beattude. The doctrnes of low attendance denomnatons (e.g. pscopalans, Reform Jews) often explctly deny any connecton between relgosty and worldly success. These denomnatons may even deny any explct connecton between relgous actvty and rewards after death. Pttnger (1975) wrtes pscopalans do not beleve n a physcal heaven or hell. He contnues pscopalans do not use [purgatory] n ther offcal teachng, because they feel that t s often assocated wth crude deas of payment of penalty and the lke. Whle 30 percent of aptsts beleve that adversty s a punshment for sn, only 9.7 percent of pscopalans share that belef. Relgous denomnatons appear to occupy a product space where some denomnatons clam an extremely hgh return to relgous nvolvement and others thnk that the dea of penaltes for 18 The two best count-examples are the Orthodox Church and the Church of ngland. In both cases, one could argue that schsm occurred because of a desre for ndependence from Rome, not from belefs about the nature of relgon. However, even n these cases there were substantal doctrnal debates (e.g. the floque controversy). 19 Ths belef has softened over the past two decades, and does not appear n the most recent Catechsm. 23

24 rrelgous behavor s crude. Our nterpretaton of the profound sortng across denomnatons on the bass of belefs s that these offcal belefs have nfluenced the belefs of denomnaton members. If denomnatons are bascally belef systems, why, then, s there any correlaton between educaton and belefs at the denomnaton level? Part of ths correlaton must come from the negatve mpact of belefs on educaton. The extent of sortng by educaton across denomnatons wll be exacerbated by socal spllovers. If spllovers n educaton acquston exst, and f n general members of hgh belef denomnatons are less nterested n educaton, then, as documented above, holdng ther educaton constant, parents who come from hgh belef denomnatons have less educated chldren. Fnally, the denomnaton-level connecton between educaton and belef also occurs because belef systems may evolve to ft the predlectons of denomnaton members. Thus, f pscopalans tend to have had a great deal of educaton, and f educaton decreases belefs, and f mnsters try to cater to ther parshoners, then we should expect the pscopalan theology to become more secular. Certanly the hstory of the evoluton of theologes confrms that at one pont all denomnatons clamed stronger treatment effects of relgous actvty on outcomes, but over tme, the hgh educaton denomnatons have reduced those clams more than the low educaton denomnatons. VI. An conomc Model Ths smple model, whch s meant to ratonalze the prevous emprcal work, s a jont model of the choce of educaton and relgous attendance. Indvduals are assumed to maxmze the followng functon 2 2 (5) R + R A + γ A τ / 2 A / 2, A whch leads to frst order condtons = R τ and A = RA + γ. The postve mpact of relgous belef on relgous attendance should be uncontroversal. The negatve mpact of belef on educatonal choce comes from our vew that secular belefs and relgous belefs are often substtutes. As dscussed above, relgon often downplays the mportance of secular success, and relgon can lead to a greater emphass on contrbutons to the church and can act essentally as a 24

25 tax on earnngs. Furthermore, f educaton s relentlessly secular then attendng school may be costly to hgh belef persons whose deas dffer radcally from the deas of teachers. The value of τ should equal the estmated value of δ or approxmately.14. Crucally, we assume that the perceved dosyncratc returns to educaton and relgous attendance are correlated. As dscussed above, ths correlaton mght work through returns of costs. The correlaton mght work through the dscount factors both relgon and educaton can be seen as forms of nvestment or because people who are ntrnscally nterested n booklearnng are nterested n that book learnng f t s gven n church or n school. Alternatvely, people who are good at sttng stll n class are good at sttng stll n church. We model ths by assumng that the returns to nvestng n attendance, denoted ndvdual specfc error term. R A equals λ R + ς, where ς s an Wth ths assumpton, we can begn mappng ths economc model nto the statstcal model of secton III. In partcular, attendance can be wrtten as = λ + ( γ + λτ ) + ς and = γ + λτ. If equals.23 and A. Thus, = λ equals.5, then λ equals.23, and γ equals.47. Denomnatons are assumed only to mpact only belefs drectly. In partcular, we assume that belefs equal bj + ι, where j s the denomnaton ndex and µ s an ndvdual specfc error term. Thus, average belefs n a denomnaton equal bj. However, the returns to educaton are also nfluenced by the average educaton n the denomnaton. We thnk of ths as stemmng from the socal factors nvolved n educaton and the fact that beng around educated people ncreases the knowledge of educaton and the sklls requred n the educaton system. In partcular, R = rˆ ( j) + ι, where ˆ( j ) represents the denomnaton average educaton and ι s an ndvdual specfc error term. For our purposes, t would be enough f only parental educaton nfluences the perceved returns to educaton. Ths means that average educaton n the denomnaton equals τ bj /( 1 r). Mappng the parameters of ths economc model back to the statstcal model yelds b = α and τ b 1 r) = α /(. If our estmate of α / α s 1.5, then ths mples that r=.78. Ths seems lke a hgh number, but not mplausbly hgh. 25

26 Thus, there are three major elements to ths model. Frst, there s a substtutablty between educaton and relgous belefs. Second, there s a correlaton n abltes or nterests, and people who are good at (or nterested n) relgon are lkely to be good at (or nterested n) school. Thrd, relgous denomnatons nfluence belefs drectly and schoolng ndrectly, through ndvdual belefs and the average schoolng level of the denomnaton. VII. Concluson Wthn the U.S., educaton rases relgous attendance at an ndvdual level. Ths does not seem unusual to us because relgous attendance s a major form of socal nteracton and educaton rases every other measurable form of socal connecton. We do not fully understand why educaton has ths mpact on socal connecton, but t seems to be the best explanaton of the postve connecton between educaton and relgon. At the same tme, there s a strong negatve connecton between attendance and educaton across relgous groups wthn the U.S. and elsewhere. Ths can be explaned by the fact that educaton s negatvely connected relgous belef and there s strong sortng across denomnatons on the bass of belefs. We thnk that the negatve correlaton between belefs and educaton occurs because educaton teaches a secular belef system that conflcts wth relgous deology. Ths paper has a number of mplcatons for research outsde of ths area. We have descrbed the condtons necessary for macro/mcro coeffcent changes. Our work on relgous belefs also reemphaszes owles and Gnts (1976) observaton that educaton has a deep deologcal component that may explan a number of mportant correlates wth schoolng. Fnally, the connecton between educaton and attendance emphaszes the mportant role that schoolng plays n explanng socal nvolvement. To understand socal connecton more generally, we must contnue explorng why there s such a strong relatonshp between educaton and formal socal actvtes. 26

27 References Azz, C. and R. hrenberg. (1975) Household allocaton of tme and church attendance. Journal of Poltcal conomy 83(1): ecker, G. (1964). Human captal. Chcago: Unversty of Chcago Press. owles, S. and H. Gnts. (1976) Schoolng n captalst Amerca : educatonal reform and the contradctons of economc lfe. New York: asc ooks. Catechsm of the Catholc Church (1975). New York: Doubleday. Chswck,.R. (1983) The earnngs and human captal of Amercan Jews. Journal of Human Resources 18(3): Cremn, L. (1951) The Amercan Common School. New York: Columba Unversty ureau of Publcatons. Durkhem,. (1995) lementary forms of relgous lfe. Translated by Karen. Felds. New York: Free Press. vans, R. L. (1975) What s a Mormon? n Leo Rosten, d., Relgons of Amerca. New York: Smon and Schuster. Glaeser,., Labson, D. and. Sacerdote. (2000) The conomc Approach to Socal Captal, NR Workng Paper #7728. Glaeser,., Labson, D., Schenkman, J. and C. Soutter (2000) Measurng trust. Quarterly Journal of conomcs. Glaeser,. and J. Schenkman (2000) Non-market Interactons, NR Workng paper. Greeley, A. M. (1989) Relgous change n Amerca. Cambrdge: Harvard Unversty Press. Greeley, A. M. (1988) Correlates of belef n lfe after death. Socology and Socal Research 73(1): 3-8. Hans. (1966) Secularsm n astern urope. In ereday, G. and J. Lauwerys eds. The World Year ook of ducaton 1966: Church and State n ducaton. London: vans rothers. Hendrcks, D. W. (1975) What s a Catholc? pp n Leo Rosten, d., Relgons of Amerca. New York: Smon and Schuster. Iannaccone, L. (1998) Introducton to the economcs of relgon. Journal of conomc Lterature 36(3): Iannaccone, L. (1992) Sacrfce and stgma: Reducng free-rdng n cults, communes, and other collectves. Journal of Poltcal conomy 100(2): Larson,. (1985) Tral and error: The Amercan controversy over creaton and evoluton. Oxford: Oxford Unversty Press. 27

28 Lott, J. (1990) An xplanaton for the Publc Provson of Schoolng: The Importance of Indoctrnaton, Journal of Law and conomcs 33: Montgomery, J. D. (1996) Contemplatons on the economc approach to relgous behavor. Amercan conomc Revew 86(2): Pttnger, W. N. (1975) What s an pscopalan? pp n Leo Rosten, d., Relgons of Amerca. New York: Smon and Schuster. Putnam, R. D. (2000) owlng alone: The collapse and revval of Amercan communty. New York: Smon and Schuster. Smth, I., Sawkns, J. W. and P. T. Seaman.(1998) The economcs of relgous partcpaton: A cross-country study. Kyklos 51(1): Stark, R., Iannaccone, L. and R. Fnke (1996) Relgon, scence, and ratonalty. Amercan conomc Revew 86(2): Tomes, Ngel. (1984) The ffects of Relgon and Denomnaton on arnngs and the Returns to Human Captal. Journal of Human Resources 19 (4): Weber,. (1976) Peasants nto Frenchmen: The Modernzaton of Rural France. Stanford: Stanford Unversty Press. 28

29 Table I OLS of Attendance on ducaton and other Controls (1) Attendance ( f born after 1945) Years of educaton (0.008) (2) Attendance ( f born after 1945) (0.008) Dummy for jewsh (0.059) Dummy for catholc (0.025) Dummy for baptst (0.026) Dummy for lutheran (0.037) Dummy for epscopal (0.058) Dummy for methodst (0.034) Dummy for presbyteran (0.046) Dummy for nondenomnatonal (0.042) protestant (3) Attendance ( f born after 1945) (0.008) (0.059) (0.025) (0.027) (0.036) (0.056) (0.033) (0.045) (0.041) (4) Attendance ( Whole Sample) (0.006) (0.039) (0.018) (0.018) (0.024) (0.035) (0.021) (0.028) (0.030) Dummy for other relgon (0.044) (0.044) (0.036) Log of ncome (0.019) (0.013) Dummy varable =1 for ncome mssng (0.057) (0.037) Dummy varable =1 for black (0.024) (0.018) Dummy varable =1 for female (0.023) (0.017) rth year of respondent (0.001) (4.86-4) Dummy varable=1 f marred (0.026) (0.018) Female * marred (0.032) (0.022) Number of chldren between ages of 0 and (0.012) (0.010) Number of chldren between ages of 6 and (0.011) (0.008) Number of chldren between ages of 13 and (0.014) (0.009) Log of populaton of cty of resdence (0.004) (0.003) Dummy varable =1 for age less than (0.027) (0.022) Dummy varable =1 for age (0.024) (0.019) Dummy varable =1 for age (0.064) (0.016) Notes: Attendance and educaton are standardzed to be mean 0, varance 1. Standard errors n parentheses. Also ncludes regon dummes 29

30 Table II OLS of Attendance on ducaton: World Values Survey (1) Attendance on ducaton and Age country France (0.024) Great rtan (0.021) West Germany (0.016) Italy (0.018) Netherlands (0.023) Span (0.013) Norway (0.018) Sweden (0.021) Swtzerland (0.03) (2) Attendance on ducaton and Age w/ Controls (0.034) (0.032) (0.022) (0.032) (0.036) (0.019) (0.022) (0.026) (0.041) Descrpton 63% Catholc 17% no relgon 37% no relgon 37% Anglcan 43% Catholc 43% Lutheran 93% Catholc 55% no relgon 22% Catholc, 12% other Protestant 85% Catholc 91% Protestant 83% Lutheran 54% Catholc 43% Protestant Austra (0.032) Ireland (0.023) Poland (0.025) Ukrane (0.022) Russa (0.017) Romana (0.032) ast German (0.022) Canada (0.019) Australa (0.021) Japan (0.019) (0.037) (0.033) (0.029) (0.026) (0.02) (0.037) (0.026) (0.025) (0.029) (0.024) 81% Catholc 93% Catholc 95% Catholc 58% Russan Orthodox 33% no relgon 70% no relgon 20% Russan Orthodox 70% Romanan Orthodox 64% no relgon 27% Lutheran 58% no relgon 23% Catholc 27% no relgon 25% Anglcan, 21% Catholc 33% Hndu 24% Shnto Chna % no relgon (0.033) (0.039) razl % Catholc (0.026) (0.049) Inda % Hndu (0.017) (0.021) Notes: ach cell s from a separate regresson of attendance on educaton. Attendance and educaton are standardzed to be mean 0, varance 1 wthn each country. ducaton varable s age when fnshed schoolng. Attendance varable s an ndex based on frequency of attendance (once a day, 2-3 tmes per week, once per week, 1-2 tmes per month, less than once per month, 1-2 tmes per year, never.) Columns (1) and (2) nclude dummes for 4 age categores. Column (2) ncludes controls for ncome, female, marred, number of chldren. 30

31 Mean of... Table III Means of elef and Socal Measures y Denomnaton (1) aptst (2) Other protestant (3) Catholc (4) Methodst (5) Lutheran (6) Nondenom protestant (7) Presbyteran (8) Other relgon (9) pscopal Standardzed ducaton Standardzed Attendance elef n afterlfe elef n Heaven elef n Devl elef n Mracles Adversty s punshment for sns ble s lteral truth Partcpate n church actvtes Number frends n congregaton Rely on help from congregaton Notes: Frst two varables are standardzed to mean 0, varance 1 wthn the sample. Remanng varables are (0-1). GSS data. (10) Jew 31

32 LIF IN HAVN mean=.859 ducaton w/ no addtonal controls Table IV GSS ffect of ducaton on elef belef/ educaton Coeff on ducaton (.037) Impled value of δ N Pseudo R- squared ducaton w/ ndvdual controls ducaton w/ denomnaton f.e.s and ndvdual controls (.041) (.043) LIF IN MIRACLS mean=.747 ducaton w/ no addtonal controls ducaton w/ ndvdual controls ducaton w/ denomnaton f.e.s and ndvdual controls (.031) (.035) (.036) LIF IN IL AS LITRAL TRUTH mean=.832 ducaton w/ no addtonal controls ducaton w/ ndvdual controls ducaton w/ denomnaton f.e.s and ndvdual controls (.034) (.038) (.039) LIF IN DVIL mean=.649 ducaton w/ no addtonal controls ducaton w/ ndvdual controls ducaton w/ denomnaton f.e.s and ndvdual controls (.042) (.046) (.048) Notes: GSS data. ach row s for a separate probt regresson. The frst column shows the margnal effect from the probt. The second column shows the probt coeffcents and standard error. The thrd column shows the mpled value of delta whch s the covarance between educaton and belef. Indvdual controls are for age, ncome, marred, female, number of chldren, and regon. 32

33 Table V World Values Survey: ffect of ducaton on elefs elef n God elef n Heaven elef n Devl Country (1a) belef/ educ (1b) probt coeff (2a) belef/ educ (2b) probt coeff (3a) belef/ educ (3b) probt coeff (std error) France (0.017) rtan (0.012) W Germany (0.009) Netherlands (0.017) Span (0.005) Ireland (0.002) USA (0.003) Canada (0.006) Japan (0.015) Australa (0.01) Norway (0.011) Poland (0.006) Swtzerland (0.014) razl (0.003) Inda (0.004) Germany (0.014) Romana (0.007) Ukrane (0.012) Russa (0.012) Impled value of δ (std error) (0.017) (0.017) (0.013) (0.02) (0.011) (0.009) (0.006) (0.012) (0.016) (0.014) (0.012) (0.019) (0.024) (0.02) (0.012) (0.012) (0.022) (0.016) (0.01) Impled value of δ (std error) (0.014) (0.017) (0.01) (0.016) (0.011) (0.021) (0.009) (0.013) (0.012) (0.016) (0.01) (0.024) (0.022) (0.026) (0.01) (0.008) (0.021) (0.016) (0.01) Impled value of δ Notes: Columns (1a), (2a), and (3a) show probt coeffcents from regressons of belef on educaton. Columns (1b), (2b), and (3b) show the margnal effects and the mpled delta, whch s the covarance between educaton and belef. ducaton varable s age when fnshed schoolng standardzed to 0-1. Regressons nclude dummes for 4 age categores. 33

34 Table VI IV stmates of ffect of ducaton on elefs (1) (2) (3) (4) elef n Heaven elef n ble as elef n Mracles elef n Devl Lteral Truth ducaton (0.024) (0.026) (0.031) (0.050) Observatons R-squared stmated usng two stage least squares wth a lnear probablty model. Instruments for own educaton nclude mother's educaton and father's educaton. Regressons also nclude controls for relgous denomnaton at age 16, own attendance, mother and father's attendance, ncome, age dummes, female, marred. Table VII ffect of ducaton on elef y Former Communst Countres vs. All Others Communst (Warsaw Pact) Countres All Others T-test for dfference n means elef n God: elef n Heaven: elef n Devl: mean delta mean delta mean delta World Values Survey data. The table shows the mean belef levels n former-communst countres and all others. elow the mean s the mpled value of delta, whch s the covarance of educaton and belef. The t-statstc for the dfference n delta s estmated usng a probt regresson that ncludes respondents from communst and noncommunst countres 34

35 LIF IN HAVN mean=.859 Attendance on belef w/ no addtonal controls Table VIII GSS ffect of elef on Attendance attendance / belef.767 (.063) Dfference n (elef) gven belef measure = yes versus no Rato (0.05) Attendance on belef w/ ndvdual controls Attendance on belef w/ denomnaton f.e.s and ndvdual controls LIF IN MIRACLS mean=.747 Attendance on belef w/ no addtonal controls Attendance on belef w/ ndvdual controls Attendance on belef w/ denomnaton f.e.s and ndvdual controls LIF IN IL AS LITRAL TRUTH mean=.832 Attendance on belef w/ no addtonal controls Attendance on belef w/ ndvdual controls Attendance on belef w/ denomnaton f.e.s and ndvdual controls LIF IN DVIL mean=.649 Attendance on belef w/ no addtonal controls Attendance on belef w/ ndvdual controls Attendance on belef w/ denomnaton f.e.s and ndvdual controls.733 (.063).719 (.065).617 (.051).595 (.050).575 (.051).672 (.058).627 (.058).604 (.060).534 (.063).522 (.063).495 (.064) (0.05) (0.051) (0.042) (0.041) (0.042) (0.046) (0.046) (0.048) (0.057) (0.057) (0.058) Column (1) gves the margnal effect of belef on attendance from a probt regresson. Column (2) s the expected value of the underlyng standardzed belef measure, gven the answer to the yes-no queston. The rato of column (1) to column (2) s equal to the degree of sortng on belefs. 35

36 Table IX GSS ffect of ducaton on Socablty Probt Coeffcent x/ y from probt Impled value of δ on ducaton* Total Number of Membershps (0.006) Member of Church Group (0.012) (0.004) Member of Fraternal Group (0.016) (0.002) Member of Servce Club (0.016) (0.002) Member of Veteran's Group (0.017) (0.002) Member of Poltcal Club (0.021) (0.001) Member of Labor unon (0.015) (0.003) Member of a Sports Group (0.014) (0.003) Member of Youth Group (0.017) (0.002) Member of School Servce Group (0.016) (0.003) Member of Hobby or Garden Club (0.016) (0.003) Member of Natonalty Group (0.021) (0.001) Member of Farm Organzaton (0.022) (0.001) Member of Lterary or Art Dscusson or Study Group (0.018) (0.002) Member of Any Other Group (0.015) (0.003) Number Close Frends (0.019) Notes: GSS data. ach row s a separate regresson. Value reported s coeffcent of membershp on educaton wth standard errors n parentheses. Regressons nclude controls for age, ncome, marred, female, number of chldren, and regon. *OLS s used for number of membershps and number of close frends. All other regressons are probts. 36

37 Table X World Values Survey OLS of Membershp on ducaton Number of Socal Membershps country France (0.035) Great rtan (0.028) West Germany (0.019) Italy (0.028) Netherlands (0.034) Span (0.017) Norway (0.021) Swtzerland (0.034) Austra (0.037) Ireland (0.034) Ukrane 0.12 (0.022) Russa (0.017) Romana (0.032) ast German (0.022) USA (0.021) Canada (0.026) Australa 0.2 (0.025) Japan (0.026) Chna (0.033) razl 0.25 (0.02) Inda (0.025) Notes: Membershp and educaton are standardzed to be mean 0, varance 1 wthn each country. ducaton varable s age when fnshed schoolng. Regressons nclude dummes for 4 age categores, female, marred, ncome, and number of chldren. Membershp s number of membershps n voluntary organzatons for sports, arts, professonal organzatons, socal organzatons, charty organzatons, and envronmental organzatons. 37

38 Table XI GSS OLS of Attend, Pray, Feel God on ducaton and Socablty (1) Attend (2) Attend For people wth membershps =0 (3) Pray (4) Feel God's Presence ducaton (0.008) Number of Membershps (excl. church related) (0.007) (0.012) (0.007) (0.025) R-squared N Notes: GSS data. ach column s a separate regresson. Regressons nclude controls for age, ncome, marred, female, number of chldren, and regon. Table XII Determnants of Sortng Across Denomnatons Var[nverse cum normal (proporton wth belef=no n denomnaton j ) ] stmated Alpha elef n heaven.153 (.085) elef n mracles.071 (.047) elef n ble as lteral truth.127 (.089) elef n the Devl.153 (.084).505 (.176).329 (.118).455 (.186).507 (.170) Notes: The table estmates the degree of sortng on belefs (α b ). Page 22 of the text shows how the varance n column (1) yelds an estmate of the degree of sortng on belefs. GSS data. Standard errors estmated by bootstrappng. 38

39 Fgure 1 Mean Attendance y ducaton Level Note: Attendance s expressed as an ndex wth mean 0, standard devaton 1. xcludes born pre Fgure 2 Mean Attendance on Mean ducaton y Denomnaton 39

40 Appendx I Attend church elef n afterlfe rth year ducaton Health Jon Relgon Leave Relgon Ranges from zero to one ndcatng the frequency wth whch the respondent attends relgous servces. A one ndcates respondent attends more than once a week whle a zero means they attend never (orgnal varable ranged from 0 to 8 e.g. a 2 ndcated that respondent attended a couple tmes a year, 4 once a month, and 6 nearly every week and so on). quals one f the respondent beleves there s lfe after death and zero f respondent does not beleve there s lfe after death. Represents the respondent s year of brth. Ranges from 0 to 93. The oldest person was born n Years of educaton. Ranges from zero to one wth one ndcatng that the respondent beleves ther health to be excellent and zero ndcatng poor health (orgnal varable ranged from one to four). A dummy varable equal to 1 f the respondent reports a current relgous afflaton and "No relgon" at age 16. A dummy varable equal to 1 f the respondent's current relgous afflaton s "No relgon" and age 16 relgous afflaton s a relgous group. Log of cty Logarthm of the populaton of the respondent s cty. populaton Log of ncome Logarthm of famly real ncome n 1986 dollars for the prevous year. Set to 0 when mssng ( (dummy varable for ncome mssng controls for ths). Mother/Father attend church Near God Non-relgous membershp Pray often Relgon sze School group membershp Stay n state Ranges from zero to one wth one beng mother/father attended relgous servces more than once a week and zero beng she/he attended relgous servces never. Ranges from zero to one wth one ndcatng respondent feels extremely close to god and zero beng does not beleve n god (orgnal varable ranged from one to fve). Ranges from one to ffteen ndcatng the number on non-relgous groups the respondent s a member of. Ranges from zero to one wth one beng prays several tmes a day and zero never (orgnal varable ranged from one to sx). The proporton of the GSS respondents n the respondent s home state who are members of the ther relgous group at age 16. A dummy varable equal to 1 f the respondent s a member of a school related group. A dummy varable equal to 1 f the respondent's current state of resdence s the same as hs or her age 16 state of resdence 40