Le Privatizzazioni come mito riformista: il caso del GAS

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1 Massimo Florio Università degli Studi di Milano Le Privatizzazioni come mito riformista: il caso del GAS Ripensare il mondo attraversare la crisi: il gioco delle parti 10 Febbraio 2012

2 Art. 15 Disposizioni in materia di separazione proprietaria Decreto-legge del 24 gennaio 2012 n. 1 Disposizioni urgenti per la concorrenza, lo sviluppo delle infrastrutture e la competitività. Pubblicato in Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 19 del 24 gennaio supplemento ordinario 1. Il decreto del Presidente del Consiglio dei Ministri di cui all'articolo 1, comma 905, della legge 27 dicembre 2006, n. 296, relativamente alla partecipazione azionaria attualmente detenuta in Snam S.p.A., e' emanato entro sei mesi dalla data di entrata in vigore del presente decreto-legge.

3 Art. 1, comma 905, legge 27 dicembre 2006, n Con decreto del Presidente del Consiglio dei ministri in attuazione dell'articolo 2 del decreto-legge 31 maggio 1994, n. 332, convertito, con modificazioni, dalla legge 30 luglio 1994, n. 474, e dell'articolo 1, comma 2, della legge 14 novembre 1995, n. 481, sono emanate, tenendo conto dei principi del diritto comunitario, disposizioni in merito all'attuazione di quanto previsto dall'articolo 1-ter, comma 4, del decreto-legge 29 agosto 2003, n. 239, convertito, con modificazioni, dalla legge 27 ottobre 2003, n. 290, come modificato dall'articolo 1, comma 373, della legge 23 dicembre 2005, n. 266, relativamente alla cessione delle quote superiori al 20 per cento del capitale delle societa' che sono proprietarie e che gestiscono reti nazionali di trasporto del gas naturale controllate direttamente o indirettamente dallo Stato.

4 Il settore del gas

5 Il settore del gas ries eria bya eria sia 8.8% 8.5% 2.0% 1.7% 2.1% 4.2% Other 2.4% third countries 1.8% 3.0% 3.1% Nigeria 5.0% 2.4% Libya Algeria EU-27 imports of natural gas: % of extra-eu imports by country of origin Russia 2.0% 1.7% 2.1% 4.2% 2.4% 1.8% 3.0% 3.1% 14.7% 15.4% 5.0% 2.4% 8.8% 8.5% 28.8% 26.1% 14.7% 15.4% 33.2% 36.8% 28.8% 26.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% % 36.8% % 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Source: Eurostat 2010

6 Il settore del gas Natural gas balance sheet, 2009, in million tonnes of oil equivalent (GCV* ), EU-27 EU-27 DE ES FR IT NL UK a. Primary Production b. Total imports c. Resources(1) d. Stock change(2) e. Total exports f. Gross inland consumption (3) g. Energy dependency (4) (1) a+b (2) + Decrease in stocks - Increase in stocks (3) a + b + d - e (4) (b - e ) / f * 100 Source: Eurostat 2010 Note: EU-27 figures comprise estimated 2009 data for Portugal. *GCV= Gross Calorific Value

7 Il settore del gas The EU-15 gas sector: production, imports and retailing (around 2005) Country Production and Imports Number of entities bringing gas into the country (production or imports) Number of entities dealing with at least 5% of natural gas (imported and produced) Total number of suppliers Retailing Suppliers having a share of at least 5% of the total Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg The Netherlands n.a. n.a Portugal Spain Sweden UK Source: Goerten and Clement (2006)

8 Il settore del gas UK Import and export of natural gas in GWh, Imports from: Belgium (1) The Netherlands (2) Norway (3) Liquefied natural gas Total imports Expots to: Belgium (1) The Netherlands (5) Norway (3) 276 Republic of Ireland Total exports Net imports (1) Bacton-Zeebrugge Interconnector (2) Bacton-Balgzand (BBL) pipeline (3) Langeled and vesterled pipelines. Tampen Link (from Statfjord to FLAGS) (4) From different deposits to Isle of Grain and Gasport Teesside (5) Dutch gas pipeline Source: Digest of United Kingdom statistics (DUKES),

9 Il settore del gas Main gas import and transmission companies in Germany (2003) Name Ultimate parent Gas supplied (bcm) Transmission (highpressure km) Storage (bcm) Ruhtgas AG E.ON <5 BEB Erdgas und Erdöl Exxon Mobil (50%) Shell (50%) >2.7 EWE ( ) BASF (through Wintershall Erdgas Verbundnetz Gas AG (VNG) Beteiligungs GmbH 15.79%) Gazprom (through ZGG- Zarubezhgas-Erdgashangdel-Gesellschaft mbh 5.26%) Gaz de France (through EEG-Erdgas transport GmbH 5.26%) Twelve municipalities in East Germany (25.79%) >2 Wingas GmbH BASF (65%) Gazprom (35%) Thyssengas GmbH RWE AG (100%) >0.3 EWE Administrative districts and towns in the Weser-Ems region, administrative districts and towns in the Weser-Elbe region >1.1 Source: OECD 2004

10 Il settore del gas Ownership pattern of the major pipelines, in Germany (2003) Ownership Pipeline Commissioned Capacity Ruhrgas 50%, GDF 43%, OMV Megal (Czech Republic -France) 5%, Stichting Megal 2% bcm Ruhrgas 51%, Snam Tenp (Netherlands - Switzerland) International 49% bcm Ruhrgas 41.7%, BEB 29.6%, Statoil 21.5%, Norsk Hydro Netra (Etzel - Bernau) 7.2% bcm Wingas 100% Midal (emden - Ludwingshafen) bcm Wingas 100% Stegal (saxony - thuringia) bcm Wingas 100% Wedal (Belgium - Midal) bcm Wingas 100% Jagal I/II (Malnow - Stegal) 1996/ bcm Source: BMWi 2004

11 Il settore del gas The EU-15 gas sector: type of unbundling for the Transmission System Operator Country Austria Belgium Denmark France Germany UK Italy Luxembourg The Netherlands Spain Sweden Ireland Type of unbundling Legal Legal Ownership Legal Partly legal Ownership Legal Not implemented Ownership Legal Ownership Not implemented Source: Commission of the European Community (b), 2006 Note: Finland, Portugal and Greece derogate from the provisions of the second European gas directive by virtue of their status as emerging or isolated markets

12 Le Riforme

13 Le riforme Sectoral Indicator of regulatory reform: Gas Entry regulation: Weights by theme (b j ) 01-Apr Question weights (c k ) Coding of data How are the terms and conditions of third party access (TPA) to the gas transmission grid determined? 01-Mar Regulated TPA Negotiated TPA No TPA What percentage of the retail market is open to consumer choice? 01-Mar (1-% of market open to choice/100)*6 No, free entry in all markets Yes, in some markets Yes, in all markets Do national, state or provincial laws or other regulations restrict the number of competitors allowed to operate a business in at least some markets in the sector: gas production/import 01-Mar Public ownership: What percentage of shares in the largest firm in the gas production/import sector are owned by government? What percentage of shares in the largest firm in the gas transmission sector are owned by government? What percentage of shares in the largest firm in the gas distribution sector are owned by government? Vertical Integration: What is the degree of vertical separation between gas production/import and the other segments of the industry? What is the degree of vertical separation between gas supply and the other segments of the industry? Is gas distribution vertically separate from gas supply? 01-Apr 01-Apr 01-Mar 01-Mar 01-Mar 01-Feb 03-Oct 01-May None Between 0 and 100 % 100% Ownership separation Legal/Accounting separation Integrated Market structure: 01-Apr What is the market share of the largest company in the gas production/import industry? 01-Mar < 50% between 50 and 90% > 90% What is the market share of the largest company in the gas transmission industry? What is the market share of the largest company in the gas supply industry? Country scores (0-6) 01-Mar 01-Mar S j b j S k c k answer jk Source: OECD

14 Figure 2.1a: Telecom Le riforme um Denmark ECTR Indicators, selected countries, Figure 2.1c: Gas Gas Figure 2.1c: Gas Finland Austria Austria Belgium France Belgium Denmark Germany Denmark Finland Finland France Greece France Germany Germany Ireland Greece Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Ireland Italy Luxembourg Italy Netherlands Luxembourg Netherlands Netherlands Portugal Portugal Portugal Spain Sweden Spain Spain United Kingdom Sweden Sweden Source: own elaboration of ECTR scores United Kingd United Kingdom

15 Le riforme Gas Figure 2.1c: Gas Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom

16 Le riforme Trends of ECTR/OECD reform indicators, , selected EU countries Public ownership Figure 6.3b: Public ownership Figure 6.3d: Vertical integration France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom

17 Le riforme Trends of ECTR/OECD reform indicators, , selected EU countries Vertical integration 7 Figure 6.3d: Vertical integration Figure 6.3d: Vertical integration France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom

18 Le riforme Trends of ECTR/OECD reform indicators, , selected EU countries Market structure Figure 6.3c: Market structure 7 Figure 6.3d: Vertical integration France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom

19 Le riforme Trends of ECTR/OECD reform indicators, , selected EU countries Entry Figure 6.3a: Entry 7 Figure 6.3d: Vertical integration France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom

20 Prezzi

21 Prezzi Gas price trends selected EU countries (net-of-tax, price for household s at GJ/Euro) Fig. 2.6c: Gas price trends selected EU countries (net-of-tax, price for household's at GJ/Euro France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom Source: Eurostat

22 Prezzi Natural gas prices for households in the EU, selected years and countries ( /unit*) Year Germany Italy Spain France Netherlands Great Britain Austria n.a n.a. n.a *GJ=gigajoule Source: IEA

23 Prezzi UK Price of gas for households (current Pence/KWh) Source: DUKES and IEA

24 Prezzi GMM estimation of dynamic panels for gas prices GMM GMM GMM GMM GMM Average price (period t-1 ) 0.712*** 0.806*** 0.795*** 0.797*** 0.811*** ECTR score ** Public ownership dummy *** ** ** *** Vertical integration dummy Entry regulation dummy Entry regulation dummy: No third party access Entry regulation dummy: No retail market open to consumers Restrictions by laws/regul. on n. of competitors No consumer choice of supplier Brent oil price ** 0.082** 0.071* 0.072* Year fixed-effects yes yes yes yes yes Constant 0.843** Observations Number of countries Dep. var.: log average price for gas supply. GMM results are one-step estimates with heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors (in parentheses) and test statistics. All continuous variables are in logs. Source: Authors' calculations using IEA, WDI source data. IEA data used for price series. Notes: Robust p-values in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Year dummies included in all models.

25 Prices Prezzi e Riforme Gas Fig. 2.7c: Gas UK ES DE DK FR SE IT AT BE PT NL LUX IRL ECTR indicators

26 % of dissatisfied consumers Riforme e Soddisfazione del Consumatore Gas supply 2.8c - Gas supply UK ES IT DK SE IRL BE AT GR NL LUX FR D PT FN ECTR indicator Source: Eurobarometer surveys and ECTR sector indicators