People, Houses, Energy, and Behavior

Transcription

1 People, Houses, Energy, and Behavior BEST FEST Behavior Towards Efficiency Session LOREN LUTZENHISER PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY 12 September 2012

2 Hitting the high points 1 Importance of behavior 2 Change and persistence 3 Trends: what s been happening? 4 On the horizon: what s new? 5 Knowledge and research

3 1Is behavior important? Common wisdom Isn t it about buildings and technologies? There s no accounting for human nature People are selfish (lazy, indulgent) People are uninformed (ignorant, uneducated) People are rational People are rational (mostly) People can do a little People can do a lot

4 Rash of behavior change programs Behavior, Energy & Climate Change Conf. Norm activation Community based social marketing Utility experiments Applying Experimental Design to Behaviorbased Programs: Defining Best Practices and Lessons from the Field

5 Yes it s important: lots of variation in the population 5,000 Illustrative Histogram: Number of HHs at each level of consumption 0 Low Energy Use High

6 Even in homogeneous groups

7 How important? Modeling buildings, technology, weather & behavior House designs Climate zones Systems Behavior

8 Results: Behavior = 80%+ Weather matters, but mostly how people react to it (elsewhere in U.S. comparisons would be more extreme) Buildings make a difference, but less important when people are added Behavior is extremely important, although ordinarily overlooked in favor of devices and structures Benefits of upgrades depend on how much energy is being used (duh! but overlooked in the averages) Other (non-building/system) energy uses are relatively large (hot water use is an important part of this, but not all)

9 2Change and persistence Two extremes California crisis Big, ugly, visible, natural experiment Billing comparison experiments Micro information, targeted feedback, subtle response

10 California Electricity Crisis Supply disruption Utility bankruptcy State as power buyer Conservation needed Only hardware incentives on offer $990M Risky requests for voluntary conservation 5,000MW

11 Contributions of behavior change Not evenly spread across the population Surprising contributor: turning off air conditioners Persistence of some behaviors a year after the crisis

12 Energy effects? Southern California desert valley near-coast coastal

13 Billing experiments: Social norms? Modest goals Small aggregate effects Experimental vs information causes Little on Who? What? Why? Where? and When? Some demands increase Utility and regulator motivations / concerns

14 3 Energy-related trends: What s been happening? Household sizes, population age structure, extended families Housing sizes and types Temperature preferences New technologies, added energy uses Relocation of work and school to the home Urban form, mix of housing types, in-home services Green lifestyles

15 Energy effects? e.g., temperatures drifting up

16 4On the horizon: What s new? Smart grid Smart meter Smart house Social media Social marketing and/or Better rules Better simple devices Better building designs Better supply chains and installers

17 5 Does the knowledge base show us what to do? Choices infrequent and not carefully considered Anything but cost and benefits are important Little information seeking; not sure what to do with info Groups not individuals use energy Consumption and conservation is highly varied (no average or typical consumers) System is characterized by complexity

18 and... Hierarchies of factors/variables in consumption and conservation habits, psychological, social, contexts, constraints Different combinations for different behaviors or widgets Mass info not very effective Psychological variables (e.g., attitudes, values) trumped by context and constraint

19 Overlaps, Gaps and Specific Lenses No clear agreement among models, theories, perspectives; little progress toward integration Often miss (or mistake) things of interest to others Divergent theories, data sources, languages Policy linkages often weak Economics Engineering, Bldg Sci Energy & Behavior Psychology Soc, Anthro, SST

20 Lots of questions (and work) remain... How do people really use energy? Who s efficient, who isn t and who should be? How persistent can savings be given trends? What about Rebound Effects? How to balance rules (e.g., codes & standards) and persuasion? Can we have big consumption changes without sweeping social change? Can we Tweet up a climate change solution?