Atlanta Sees Best Office Market Results Since 2000

Transcription

1 Research & Forecast Report Year-End 2015 Office Atlanta Sees Best Office Market Results Since 2000 Key Takeaways > Atlanta s office absorption totaled 4.8 million square feet in 2015; the highest annual total in 15 years. > Positive absorption in the year, along with no large multi-tenant deliveries have resulted in Atlanta s lowest office vacancy rate since > The average rental rate for office in Atlanta finished the year 7% higher than this time last year. It is the highest since 2008, and only $0.09/sf off the record. > The most significant deliveries to occur in 2015 were Cox Communications 578,000 sq. ft. office tower in Central Perimeter and Porsche s 200,000 sq. ft. North American headquarters facility at the airport in South Atlanta. > For the coming year, Atlanta s office market should see similar levels of absorption and leasing activity as experienced over the past couple of years. Atlanta Office Market Following yet another quarter with over 1 million square feet of office absorbed, Atlanta finished the year with its highest annual absorption total since A net total of 4.8 million square feet was occupied in This activity combined with the few number of deliveries taking place during the year has resulted in the lowest overall office vacancy rate in Atlanta in fifteen years was filled with a number of significant storylines. The first to mark the year was the announcement by Mercedes-Benz to relocate its North American headquarters from New Jersey to Central Perimeter. The German luxury automaker revealed its plans to invest around $100 million in an office building totaling approximately 250,000 square feet on a 12-acre parcel in the submarket, just west of Georgia 400. The move is expected to bring 1,000 jobs to the area and is being touted as the biggest economic win for Atlanta since UPS relocated to Market Indicators Relative to prior period Summary Statistics Atlanta Office Market Market Class A Class B Vacancy Rate 13.5% 12.4% 15.2% Change From Q % -0.6% -0.3% Absorption YTD (Thousands Square Feet) Construction Deliveries YTD (Thousands Square Feet) Under Construction (Millions Square Feet) Asking Rents Per Square Foot Per Year Q Q1 2016* NET ABSORPTION - CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE CAP RATES - *Projected 4,828 3,529 1, Average Quoted $21.45 $25.63 $17.36 Change From Q % 0.8% 1.9% Year-Over-Year Change 6.9% 7.1% 5.8%

2 Atlanta Office Market (continued) the area in Construction of the headquarters should begin in the first half of The Cumberland/Galleria area also received much attention throughout the year. In addition to the ongoing construction of the new Atlanta Braves stadium, the submarket saw a number of noteworthy transactions in 2015; the most prominent being Comcast which announced a partnership with the Atlanta Braves to anchor a nine-story office building at the new ballpark and also create a multimillion dollar network throughout the entire development, making it the most connected in the nation. The office building will contain between 250, ,000 square feet and house around 1,000 of Comcasts employees. Also taking place in the submarket, Synovus agreed to anchor 100,000 square feet in a new office building to be constructed by TPA Realty Group; RaceTrac Petroleum chose a new office location of 114,000 square feet at Galleria Office Park; and Delta Community Credit Union, Holder Construction, and Bennett Thrasher all pre-leased space at Riverwood 200 which recently broke ground and is the Cumberland/ Galleria area s first new office building to begin construction in 15 years. As it seems, the Central Perimeter and Northwest Atlanta submarkets stole the show this year; however, the office market was active throughout the region. In total, four submarkets saw over 800,000 square feet of office space absorbed in 2015; and every submarket, with the exception of Northeast Atlanta, was positive. Midtown and North Fulton saw the greatest change in their office vacancy rates, decreasing 3.3% and 3.1% respectively from last year. Meanwhile, Buckhead and Downtown saw the largest increase in their average rental rates, increasing 13% and 17% respectively. UPDATE - Top 5 Transactions in the Market for 2015 Notable Leasing Activity TENANT PROPERTY SUBMARKET LANDLORD SIZE TYPE IHG 3 Ravinia Central Perimeter CBRE Global Investors 488,000 Class A Renewal & Expansion NCR Midtown HQ Midtown Cousins Properties 485,000 Build-To-Suit Mercedes-Benz Glenridge HQ Central Perimeter Mercedes-Benz 250,000 Build-To-Suit Comcast One Ballpark Center Northwest Atlanta Atlanta Braves 250,000 Class A Prelease IBM 6303 Barfield Rd. Central Perimeter Drawbridge Realty Trust 238,600 Class A Sale-Leaseback Notable Sales Activity PROPERTY SUBMARKET SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE PRICE / SF BUYER Concourse Corporate Center Central Perimeter 4/23/2015 $489,000,000 2,115,642 $ Building & Land Technology Monarch Centre Buckhead 9/30/2015 $303,000, ,449 $338 Highwoods Properties AT&T Midtown Center Midtown 10/16/2015 $260,000, ,110 $ CBRE Global Investors Tower Place 100 Buckhead 7/1/2015 $170,000, ,821 $ Starwood Capital Group One Buckhead Plaza Buckhead 1/8/2015 $157,000, ,669 $ Parkway Properties Historical Absorption, Deliveries and Vacancy Rates Square Feet 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 (1,000,000) (2,000,000) (3,000,000) (4,000,000) Absorption Deliveries Vacancy % % 15% 10% 5% 0% 2 Research & Forecast Report Year-End 2015 Atlanta Office Colliers International

3 Vacancy & Availability > Over the course of the year, Atlanta s office vacancy rate declined almost 200 basis points. At 13.5%, this is the lowest it has been since > Class A vacancy is down 2.5% from this time last year. Since its peak high in 2010, the Class A vacancy rate has dropped 7.4%. This amounts to almost 7.8 million square feet of vacant office space filled during this time. > Although large blocks of availability have been filling up over the past couple of years, there remains ample opportunities for prospects currently scouting office space. > Looking ahead, the downward trend in vacancy will continue in Atlanta. Buckhead and North Fulton could likely see their overall vacancy rates drop below 10% next year. Absorption & Leasing Activity > Atlanta office absorption totaled 4.8 million square feet in This is the highest annual total since > The largest occupancies in the year were: Cox Communications (578,000 SF); Fiserv (376,000 SF); Home Depot (200,000+ SF); and Porsche (200,000 SF). > Midtown, Central Perimeter, North Fulton and Northwest Atlanta each saw over 800,000 square feet of space absorbed in > Office leasing finished the year at a moderate level compared to previous years. The back end of 2015 saw somewhat of a lull in activity. Cumberland/Galleria experienced the highest amount of activity throughout the year as the new Atlanta Braves stadium has proved to be a catalyst to attracting new tenants to this particular area. > Heading into the new year, absorption and leasing should remain consistent to recent activity, though a few large blocks of space are expected to hit the market in Year-End 2015 Vacant Space By Type Square Feet CLASS A 13,969,354 SF VCY RATE = 12.4% Year-End 2015 Net Absorption By Submarket 1,000, , , , ,000 0 (200,000) Class A Class B Class C CENTRAL PERIMETER NORTHWEST CLASS B 13,537,236 SF VCY RATE = 15.2% CLASS C 2,447,846 SF VCY RATE = 12.4% NORTH FULTON MIDTOWN BUCKHEAD SOUTH NORTHLAKE DOWNTOWN WEST NORTHEAST Rental Rates > Average asking rental rates have steadily climbed throughout the year. The average for Atlanta office is now $21.45/sf. This is the highest since 2008 and only $0.09/sf off the record high. > Since bottoming in the third quarter of 2012, Class A rental rates have increased 14%. The $25.63/sf average is the highest Atlanta has ever seen. > The unprecedented growth in Atlanta s office rental rates is anticipated to continue for some time. With demand for space remaining strong and steady, the absence of new supply will push the cost to lease space higher. How developers respond to this dilemma in 2016 will be a telltell sign of how high rents go. Year-End 2015 Atlanta Rental Rates Overall Market & Class A (per sq. ft.) Class A Market AVG $27.00 $25.00 $23.00 $21.00 $19.00 $17.00 Sources: CoStar Property, Colliers Research 3 Research & Forecast Report Year-End 2015 Atlanta Office Colliers International

4 Construction > There were no significant multitenanted office buildings delivered this year. The largest deliveries to occur were Cox Communications 578,000 sq. ft. build-to-suit and Porsche s new North American headquarters building of 200,000 sq. ft. at the Airport. > The lack of new supply in the office market is unfamiliar to Atlanta. In past cycles, new developments were numerous and swift. Rising construction costs, the inability to land anchor tenants, and the more prudent nature of the market have limited current construction activity. > Atlanta s office market is certain to see more construction starts in Construction Activity (100,000 SF+) Investment Activity > Annual investment volume for Atlanta office buildings reached its highest level in eight years totaling over $4.5 billion. > Buckhead, Atlanta s most desirable investment market, saw over $1 billion of office space transacted this year. > The largest investment sale of 2015 was Concourse Corporate Ctr. in Central Perimeter. The office park traded for $489 million ($229/sf). This is the highest priced transaction ever recorded for an Atlanta office property. > Investors have taken notice of Atlanta s overall market fundamentals and will continue to take advantage of the upside potential of rental rates in PROPERTY SUBMARKET SIZE DELIVERY DATE State Farm Campus - Phase I Central Perimeter 602,000 Fourth Quarter 2016 Three Alliance Center Buckhead 500,000 Fourth Quarter 2016 Riverwood 200 Northwest Atlanta 308,000 Second Quarter 2017 Genuine Parts BTS - Wildwood Northwest Atlanta 150,000 Third Quarter 2016 Outlook The recovery of Atlanta s office market has been anything but usual compared to past cycles. With an average of 3.3 million square feet of space absorbed annually over the past 4 years, it will be another remarkable year of growth in the office market should occupancy levels increase by the same amount in A number of local economists predict job growth in Atlanta to remain moderately steady over the next couple of years with the region seeing positive activity continue from the corporate sector. The underlying transformation of Atlanta into a technology hub will also result in more gains from the information/ technology sector. Despite some recent big name losses to other markets, Atlanta will remain atop many corporate relocation lists. A few headwinds are expected next year including large vacancies from Coca-Cola, Newell-Rubbermaid and Fiserv; however, the blocks of availability resulting from these move-outs will provide large prospects in the market more options to choose. The supply/demand fundamentals which have shaped the extraordinary rental rate growth in the market, along with the decline in vacancy, will finally lead to new spec development activity; albeit limited. Additionally, a number of anchored projects are expected to begin next year as well. In total, Atlanta should see almost 3 million square feet of office space break ground in Both Moody s and PwC see Atlanta s office market entering into expansion territory over the next couple of years. This will maintain the exceptional growth taking place and provide the local commercial real estate community with continued optimism. DEFINITIONS Absorption (Net)-The net change in occupied space over a given period of time, calculated by summing all the positive changes in occupancy and subtracting all the negative changes in occupancy. Vacancy Rate-A percentage of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. Vacant Space-Space that is not currently occupied by a tenant, regardless of any lease obligation on the space. Sublease Space-Space that has been leased by a tenant and is being offered for lease back to the market by the tenant with the lease obligation. Deliveries-Buildings that complete construction during a specified period of time. A certificate of occupancy must have been issued for the property for it to be considered delivered. Leasing Activity-The volume of square footage that is committed to and signed for under a lease obligation for a specific building or market in a given period of time. It includes direct leases, subleases and renewals of existing leases. It also includes any pre-leasing activity for buildings under construction or planned. Build-to-Suit-A term describing property that was developed specifi cally for a certain tenant to occupy. Can be either leased or owned by the tenant. Class A Office-A classification used to describe buildings that generally qualify as extremely desirable investment-grade properties and command the highest rents or sales prices compared to other buildings in the same market. Such buildings are well located and provide efficient tenant layouts as well as high quality floor plans. Class B Office-A classification used to describe buildings that generally qualify as a more speculative investment, and as such, command lower rents or sales prices compared to Class A properties. Such properties have ordinary design, lack prestige and generally must depend on a lower rent/sales price to attract tenants/investors. 4 Research & Forecast Report Year-End 2015 Atlanta Office Colliers International

5 Atlanta Office Market Update Existing Properties Vacancy Absorption Deliveries U/C Rent CLASS BLDGS EXISTING INVENTORY DIRECT DIRECT VCY % SUBLET SUBLET VCY % TOTAL VCY CURR QTR % VCY PRIOR QTR % NET ABSORP CURR NET ABSORP YTD NEW SUPPLY CURR NEW SUPPLY YTD UNDER CONSTR AVG RENT RATE URBAN DOWNTOWN A 28 14,763,596 2,557, % 54, % 2,611, % 18.2% 77,153 67, $22.31 B 81 9,149, , % 1, % 965, % 10.8% 20,235 (16,303) $17.81 C 75 3,812, , % , % 22.8% 50,114 10, $18.46 Total ,725,545 4,342, % 55, % 4,397, % 16.4% 147,502 61, $21.59 MIDTOWN A 40 16,154,521 2,073, % 77, % 2,151, % 14.3% 152, , $29.52 B 95 5,543, , % 2, % 748, % 14.2% 40,535 30,467-81,629 - $22.98 C ,754 25, % % 26, % 2.5% (6,222) 14, $18.58 Total ,514,186 2,844, % 81, % 2,926, % 13.8% 186, ,506-81,629 - $26.64 BUCKHEAD A 48 15,614,717 1,718, % 40, % 1,759, % 11.5% 41, , ,000 $33.24 B 53 4,571, , % 13, % 409, % 9.8% 37,884 84, ,690 $22.60 C ,357 45, % 3, % 49, % 5.2% 2,644 5, $17.97 Total ,180,365 2,160, % 57, % 2,218, % 10.9% 81, , ,690 $31.51 URBAN TOTAL A ,532,834 6,349, % 172, % 6,522, % 14.6% 270,990 1,325, ,000 $28.36 B ,264,541 2,106, % 17, % 2,124, % 11.5% 98,654 98,229-81,629 43,690 $21.13 C 150 5,622, , % 4, % 896, % 16.8% 46,536 30, $18.34 Total ,420,096 9,347, % 195, % 9,542, % 13.9% 416,180 1,454,202-81, ,690 $26.58 SUBURBAN CENTRAL PERIMETER A 72 20,774,030 1,692, % 214, % 1,906, % 10.3% 232, , , ,000 $27.07 B 142 7,266,310 1,465, % 40, % 1,506, % 21.3% 40, , ,402 $20.60 C 85 1,470, , % 3, % 267, % 18.7% 7,710 (10,318) $12.42 Total ,510,983 3,421, % 259, % 3,680, % 13.4% 280, , , ,402 $23.78 NORTH FULTON A ,569,097 1,488, % 130, % 1,618, % 10.8% 63, , $23.18 B ,102,365 1,401, % 14, % 1,415, % 12.8% 49,600 65,944 52,000 52,000 - $16.63 C 68 1,116,389 85, % 2, % 87, % 7.5% (3,357) 19, $15.44 Total ,787,851 2,974, % 147, % 3,121, % 11.5% 109, ,596 52,000 52,000 - $20.27 NORTHEAST A 59 7,908,881 1,091, % 145, % 1,236, % 14.6% (78,516) 6, $20.15 B ,650,092 3,177, % 45, % 3,222, % 23.4% (31,977) (98,579) $15.25 C 127 2,246, , % , % 13.7% 2,407 17, $12.33 Total ,804,994 4,574, % 191, % 4,765, % 19.6% (108,086) (74,810) $16.76 NORTHLAKE A 22 3,061, , % 7, % 217, % 7.8% 20,469 12, $22.28 B ,217,645 1,677, % 137, % 1,815, % 16.8% 69, , $17.09 C 156 3,193, , % , % 6.3% (2,885) 30, $14.31 Total ,471,962 2,093, % 145, % 2,238, % 13.3% 87, , $17.58 NORTHWEST A 72 17,284,939 2,095, % 162, % 2,258, % 13.7% 111, , ,000 $25.18 B ,546,812 2,265, % 32, % 2,297, % 14.8% (3,255) 518, ,000 $16.60 C 153 2,697, , % % 250, % 9.8% 13,871 31, $12.73 Total ,529,733 4,610, % 195, % 4,806, % 13.9% 122, , ,000 $20.47 SOUTH A 18 1,521, , % 10, % 208, % 14.7% 15, , ,000 - $19.79 B 238 9,120,216 1,063, % 18, % 1,081, % 12.3% 40, , $15.74 C 130 2,532, , % 1, % 326, % 13.3% 9,930 36, $13.16 Total ,173,793 1,586, % 29, % 1,616, % 12.8% 66, , ,000 - $15.87 WEST A B 66 1,607,916 74, % , % 5.2% 10,103 24, $12.96 C , , % , % 15.2% 19,940 25, $15.85 Total 105 2,451, , % , % 8.7% 30,043 50, $13.58 SUBURBAN TOTAL A ,119,098 6,775, % 671, % 7,447, % 11.8% 365,582 2,203, ,000 1,060,000 $22.94 B 1,892 69,511,356 11,123, % 289, % 11,413, % 16.6% 175,278 1,020,074 52,000 52,000 71,402 $16.41 C ,100,634 1,543, % 8, % 1,551, % 11.3% 47, , $13.75 Total 2, ,731,088 19,443, % 968, % 20,411, % 14.0% 588,476 3,374,176 52, ,000 1,131,402 $18.33 MARKET GRAND TOTAL A ,651,932 13,125, % 843, % 13,969, % 13.0% 636,572 3,528, ,000 1,560,000 $25.63 B 2,121 88,775,897 13,230, % 306, % 13,537, % 15.5% 273,932 1,118,303 52, , ,092 $17.36 C ,723,355 2,434, % 12, % 2,447, % 12.9% 94, , $13.86 Total 3, ,151,184 28,790, % 1,163, % 29,954, % 14.0% 1,004,656 4,828,378 52, ,629 1,675,092 $21.45 Quarterly Comparisons and Totals QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS Q4-15 3, ,151,184 28,790, % 1,163, % 29,954, % 14.0% 1,004,656 4,828,378 52, ,629 1,675,092 $21.45 Q3-15 3, ,099,184 29,596, % 1,310, % 30,907, % 14.4% 1,038,627 3,823,722 81, ,629 1,671,092 $21.15 Q2-15 3, ,017,555 30,712, % 1,151, % 31,864, % 14.9% 1,664,414 2,785, , ,000 1,444,721 $20.70 Q1-15 3, ,439,555 31,716, % 1,234, % 32,950, % 15.4% 1,120,681 1,120, , ,000 1,829,031 $20.16 Q4-14 3, ,239,555 32,681, % 1,189, % 33,871, % 15.7% 919,250 3,630, , ,420 1,961,629 $20.07 NOTE: STATISTICAL SET CONSISTS OF OFFICE PROPERTIES 10,000 SF AND UP, INCLUDING OWNER-OCCUPIED PROPERTIES; AND EXCLUDING MEDICAL OFFICE AND PROPERTIES WHERE THE GOVERNMENT IS 100% OWNER AND OCCUPIER. WHILE COSTAR ATTEMPTS TO PROVIDE THE MOST ACCURATE DATA AT THE END OF EVERY QUARTER, REVISIONS ARE MADE THROUGHOUT THE YEAR ACCOUNTING FOR DISCREPANCIES IN PAST REPORTING. SOURCES: COSTAR PROPERTY, COLLIERS RESEARCH 5 Research & Forecast Report Year-End 2015 Atlanta Office Colliers International

6 Atlanta Office Submarkets Canton Cartersville Emerson BARTOW CO. PAULDING CO. COBB CO. BARTOW CO. CHEROKEE CO. Acworth Allatona Lake NORTHWEST MARIETTA Woodstock CHEROKEE CO. Mountain Park COBB CO. CHEROKEE CO. FORSYTH CO. Alpharetta OCENTRAL PERIMETER DORAVILLE O. Roswell CHAMBLEE NORTH FULTON FORSYTH Cumming FULTO N CO. CO. River Duluth Chattachoochee Norcross Lake Lanier Sugar Hill HALL CO. GWINNETT CO. Lawrenceville Buford NORTHEAST 316 GAINESVILLE Bras OFFICE SUBMARKETS The Atlanta office market consists of ten submarkets. They include the urban markets of Downtown, Midtown and Buckhead, and the suburban markets of Central Perimeter, North Fulton, Northwest Atlanta, Northeast Atlanta, Northlake, South Atlanta and West Atlanta. The major interstates in the region include: I-75, I-85, I-285, I-575, I-985, I-675 and I-20. Georgia 400 and US 316 also play important roles to Atlanta s transportation system. PAULDING CO. Douglasville Powder Springs COBB CO. DOUGLAS CO. Austell WEST SMYRNA oochoch Ch attachoochee River BUCKHEAD MIDTOWN DECATUR Avondale Estates DOWNTOWN NORTHLAKE Clarkston GWINNETT CO. Stone Mountain Lithonia Snellville GWINNETT CO. WALTON CO. Submarket Size & Occupancy COWETA CO. Palmetto Fairburn Union City EAST POINT COLLEGE PARK HAPEVILLE Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport FAYETTE CO. Fayetteville CLAYTON CO. FOREST PARK SOUTH Riverdale 675 Jonesboro HENRY CO. CLAYTON CO. HENRY CO. Stockbridge ROCKDALE CO. McDonough SUBMARKET SIZE OCCUPANCY % Conyers Covington Northwest Atlanta 35.5 msf 86.5% Central Perimeter 29.5 msf 87.5% North Fulton 27.8 msf 88.8% Downtown 27.7 msf 84.1% Northeast Atlanta 23.8 msf 80.0% Midtown 22.5 msf 87.0% Buckhead 21.2 msf 89.5% Northlake 17.5 msf 87.2% ROCKDALE CO. NEWTON CO. Newnan Peachtree City South Atlanta 13.2 msf 87.7% West Atlanta 2.5 msf 92.6% BUTTS CO. FOR MORE INFORMATION Russ D. Jobson, SIOR SVP, Principal Atlanta [email protected] Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International Atlanta Promenade Suite Peachtree Street, NE Atlanta, Georgia, colliers.com/atlanta 6 North American Research & Forecast Report Q Office Market Outlook Colliers International