Ling Li Qiulin Chen Yu Jiang Honolulu

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1 NTA and China s Public Policy Ling Li Qiulin Chen Yu Jiang Honolulu

2 China: the Era of Great Change Planed economy Market economy Low economic growth, high savings High economic growth High fertility and low mortality rates National based social security system Low fertility and low mortality rates Marketlized social security system

fertility and low mortality rates National based social security

3 Backgroud of the evulution The transition of social development 23- Scientific development and "homonious society Emphasize justice and equality More government expenditure to the public service Reconstruct the social security system

society Emphasize justice and equality More government

4 Issue 1: Public vs Private

5 The evolution of China's healthcare system In 1999, China began to reform its healthcare system Before reform After reform Urban: Comprehensive Social Security for the employees (and their relatives) Rural: Cooperated Medical Service Urban: Rural Employee's health insurance(1998-) Citizen s social insurance(27-) New Cooperated Medical Insurance(23-)

the employees (and their relatives) Rural: Cooperated Medical Service Urban: Rural

6 NTA and Health Age Profile of Health Consumption, Health,urban Health,rural Health,National

17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73

7 The Change of J Curve China's J Curve,1998, Smoothed RMB National Male Female Age

Male Female 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 3 33 36 39

8 The Change of J Curve China's J Curve,23, smoothed 25 National Urban Rural 2 15 RMB Age

5 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 3 33 36 39 42 45

9 Health: public and private Public Private China urban 1995 China rural 1995 $2, $18, $16, $14, $12, $1, $8, $6, $4, $2, $ The USA 2 Thailand 24

urban 1995 China rural 1995 $2, $18, $16, $14, $12, $1, $8, $6, $4, $2, $ 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55

10 Comparison Comparison, China 1995 and 22,per capita.1 Ratio Public Health 1995y Public Health 22y Age (Normalized by average Labor Income of age 3-49)

2 Public Health 1995y Public Health 22y.

11 Comparison Comparison, China 1995 and 22,per capita.5 Ratio Private Health 1995y Private Health 22y Age (Normalized by average Labor Income of age 3-49)

1 Private Health 1995y Private Health 22y.

12 Comparison Comparison, China 1995 and 22,per capita Ratio Health Inflow 1995 Health Inflow 22 Health Outflow 1995 Health Outflow 22 (Normalized by average Labor Income of age 3-49) Age

2 9 18 27 36 45 54 63 72 81 9 Health Inflow 1995 Health

13 Consumption between health and education Public Consumption,Other Public Consumption,He alth Public Consumption,Education Public Consumption,China,pe r capita,22 12 Public Consumption,China,pe r capita, Yuan 8 6 Yuan Age Age

Consumption,China,pe r capita,22 12 Public Consumption,China,pe r capita,1995

14 Public Education, Comparison China 1995 & 22, per capita Ratio Age (Normalized by average Labor Income of age 3-49)

15 Private Education, Comparison China 1995 & 22, per capita Ratio Private Education 1995y Private Education 22y Age (Normalized by average Labor Income of age 3-49)

6 64 68 72 76 8 84 88 Private Education 1995y Private

16 Private Education, Comparison between urban and rural Education, Rural and Urban,China,percapita, Yuan Age Urban Education,unsmoothed Rural Education,unsmoothed Urban Education,smoothed Rural Education, smoothed

3 36 42 48 54 6 66 72 78 84 9+ Age Urban Education,unsmoothed Rural

17 Intra HH Transfer: Education Comparison China 1995 and 22,per capita Ratio Education Inflow 1995 Education Inflow 22 Education Outflow 1995 Education Outflow 22 Age

5 4 8 12 16 2 24 28 32 36 4 44 48 52 56 6 64 68 72 76 8 84

18 Intra HH Transfer: Health Comparison China 1995 and 22,per capita Ratio Health Inflow 1995 Health Inflow 22 Health Outflow 1995 Health Outflow 22 Age

2 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5 55 6 65 7 75 8 85 9+ Health

19 Public Transfer- Comparison China 1995 and 22, per capita Ratio Public transfer,net 1995y Public transfer,net 22y Age

1 4 8 12 16 2 24 28 32 36 4 44 48 52 56 6 64 68 72

20 The future of China s healthcare? Hot debate Subsidy the demand side or the supply side Social Insurance System or National Healthcare Service (NHS) system

21 The future of China s healthcare? The new healthcare system increase rather than control the cost 岁 5-14 岁岁岁岁岁岁 65 岁及以上 N o Insu ra n ce G overn em t em p loye e's H ea lth Insu ra n ce C oo p e ra te d M ed ica lse rvic e Priva te Insu ra n ce U rb a n Em p loye e's H ea lth Insu ra n ce C om p re hen sive so cia linsu ra n ce O the r

22 Issue 2: Gender

23 Background Women liberation along with the revolution during the 2 th century Unequally competition in a export-oriented and labor-intensive economy 2 million migrated from the rural to urban for work Weaken of social security system Oversupply of cheap labor: Labor super market

24 Labor Income Preliminary result Labor Income Urban, 22, per capita

25 Labor Income Preliminary result Labor Income Rural, 22, per capita

26 consumption Preliminary result Private consumption urban, 22, per capita

27 consumption Preliminary result Private consumption urban, 22, per capita

28 consumption Preliminary result Private consumption rural, 22, per capita

29 consumption Preliminary result Private consumption rural, 22, per capita

30 Next step Transfers between genders Estimate the transfer between the urban and rural by the immigration

31 Thanks

Economic Growth, Inequality and Poverty Reduction in China

Economic Growth, Inequality and Poverty Reduction in China Sangui Wang Renmin University of China Economic Growth, Poverty and Inequality in China 1 China has achieved remarkable economic growth since