PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT & MANAGEMENT

Transcription

1 PETROSYNC S PROJECT MANAGEMENT SERIES PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT & MANAGEMENT Your Key To Analyse & Identify Risk In Project Risk Management 1 March 4 March 2016 Bali, Indonesia Supported By

2 Course Overview Protecting project interests from possible risks of major financial liabilities has always been a major business concern. Projects must properly managed by qualitative risk assessment to minimize or to avoid risk occur in a project planning. Our Project Risk Assessment and Management course is developed to present the purposes and methods of risk management planning and employ opportunities and threats and the use of the risk breakdown structure in risk identification. Course Design This course focuses on qualitative risk analysis methods of ranking risks by probability and impact and the use of those results to prepare risk response methods You will learn to employ quantitative and qualitative analysis methods of cost and schedule risk and decision tree analysis through case studies and practical exercises. Attendees will also learn to demonstrate and apply six PMBOK Guide ( Project Management Institute) processes of project risk management. How Does This Course Benefits You? Learn the purposes and methods of risk management planning Mastering the skills in risk management and employ both opportunities and threats and the use of the risk breakdown structure in risk identification. Attain the skill in demonstrating qualitative risk analysis methods and able to mitigate project risks Demonstrate qualitative risk analysis methods of ranking risks by probability and impact and the use of those results to drive the quantitative risk analysis & risk response planning Learn the quantitative analysis methods of cost and schedule risk Employ quantitative analysis methods of cost and schedule risk by solving simple case studies using manual analytic methods. Learn new quantitative risk analysis methods of Risk Drivers & the integration of cost and schedule risk analysis Observe and explain modern quantitative risk analysis software and able to recognize the characteristics of the mature project risk management organization. Do you know that there are positive risk & negative risk in modern risk approaches? Do you know that you will likely to find the large majority of risk by combining different risk identification methods? 2

3 PetroSync Distinguished Instructor David T. Hulett Project Management & Risk Analysis Consultant Practical & Consulting Over 25 years of experience in quantitative schedule risk analysis, integrated cost-schedule risk & analysis & project scheduling best practices Training Provides proprietary training in project risk management, quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis and project scheduling to various multinational oil & gas companies. Regional Clientele base is from Asia Pacific, US, Europe, South America & Middle East Awards Championed Risk Driver method Publications Authored Practical Schedule Risk Analysis (Gower, 2009) Authored the Recommended Practice 57R-09 on Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis Published Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis Who Needs This Program People who are dealing with project selection & strategy, planning and scheduling. This course covers the Project Risk Management knowledge area of the PMBOK Guide. Job Titles Include: Project Managers Project Team Leaders Project Team Members XXX Project Risk Managers Project Controllers Course Schedule 08:00 09:00 Registration (Day 1) 13:00 14:00 Lunch 09:00 11:00 Session I 14:00 15:30 Session III 11: Refreshment Session I 15:30 15:45 Refreshment Session II 11:15 13:00 Session II 15:45 17:00 Session Iv (Last Session) PetroSync Quality Assurance All PetroSync courses are developed with top quality to address all your training needs and purposes. Our courses are vetted strictly to ensure that we always deliver the best courses with the best industry expert. PetroSync Inhouse Solutions PetroSync can tailor our courses to meet your specific needs at your preferred location and schedule. Contact us for more information at or to 3

4 Course Agenda 4 Days DAY 1 Introduction to Risk Analysis and Management Definitions of risk and uncertainty, opportunities and threats Risk of interrelated project objectives Risk analysis and risk management Sources of project risk Company and personal attitudes toward risk Alternative responses to project risk Attributes of successful risk analysis Discussion: enablers and inhibitors in your company to risk management? Risk Management Planning Developing the approach to risk management to be used Determining the type of risk analysis, e.g. qualitative assessment or quantification of risk (or both) Budgeting and Scheduling the risk management activities Discussion: how important is risk management planning in your projects? Is it practiced in the planning stage of the project? Risk Identification Using Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) with categories of risk technical, external, organizational and project management Brainstorming the project risks Structure of the Risk Statement (cause, risk, effect) Discussion: The risks in a typical refinery upgrading project Case study Introduce the Offshore Gas Production Platform for Risk Identification (in small groups) -Develop a risk breakdown structure (RBS) of the usual risks experienced in projects appropriate to the case -Identify risks in each category (small groups) Qualitative Risk Assessment Ranking risk into Low, Moderate and High categories Defining the terms for probability and impact Using the Probability Impact (PxI) Matrix approach Questions that elicit probability and impact scale results Combining probability and impact of risk events Risk registers are always incomplete, but why, how to complete them? Case study Implementing the (P-I) approach for the Offshore Gas Production Platform (small groups, report back results) -Develop definitions for different levels of probability and impact -Use those definitions on the risks identified at Point 4 above, in small groups to develop likelihood and impact scores -Combine P-I scores and identify low, moderate and high risks -Report back to the group DAY 2 Risk Quantification Simple Concepts in Probability Expected value, standard deviation calculations Likelihood of two events occurring together Discussion: How is risk quantification, different from qualitative risk analysis, used in your company? Project Cost Risk Using Probability Distributions in Risk Analysis The purpose of a cost risk analysis Inputs the baseline cost estimate without embedded or below-the-line contingency 3-point ranges of uncertainty in cost estimates Select the cost elements worth risk ranging The Method of Moments analytical method for combining uncertain costs -Monte Carlo Simulation approach explained, demonstrated Results: -Total program cost risk results from the simulation -Cost contingency calculation -Identify elements of highest cost risk tornado Diagrams Cost Risk Case Study Offshore Gas Production Platform (small groups, report back) Project cost estimate provided Determine the risk ranges for the selected cost elements Find the likelihood of overrun using the MOM and pocket calculator Compute the needed contingency amount and percentage Decision Tree Analysis for Risk Neutral and Risk Averse Organizations Types of decisions for which decision trees are helpful Setting up the Decision Tree structure Adding cost, reward and probability data Rolling forward to calculate path values Folding back to calculate the event nodes and select the decision node alternatives Risk Aversion-Utility function illustrated Key data indicated by sensitivity analysis Case study Decision Tree (Building decision in an Earthquake Zone) Risk Data Collection Steps in collecting high-quality risk data Who should be interviewed? What other data sources do we have? Motivational and organizational bias in collecting risk data Combating these biases -Interviews vs. workshops, the value of confidentiality -Risk-range the important cost risk elements only the Pareto concept -The risk interview rules and expectations Discussion: what are the inhibitors and enablers to collecting unbiased risk data in your company? Register For This Course Now! Kindly fill up your particulars in the registration form placed at the end of this brochure, and send it to us or to registration@petrosync.com 4

5 DAY 3 Modern quantitative risk analysis - using Risk Drivers in cost risk analysis Identifying risks from the risk register Setting up the spreadsheet Assigning the risks to cost elements Monte Carlo simulation of the cost model How to consider the impact of schedule uncertainty on project cost The Monte Carlo simulation method Creating a synthetic sample of similar projects Making probabilistic statements from the synthetic sample What is simulation? How does it work? Demonstration Simulation Software with Microsoft Excel using Risk Drivers -Discuss the risks that you would put in for a Refinery Upgrade Project -Discuss the results compared to your company s experience-benchmarking against experience, or the outside view Project Schedule Risk Analysis Why conduct a schedule risk analysis? Importance of best practice CPM project scheduling Using best practices Critical Path Method to develop the project schedule Purpose of CPM scheduling as a basis of the quantitative project schedule Monte Carlo simulation DAY 4 Risk Driver Method Focus on risks rather than activities Uncertainty representing inherent variation, estimating error/bias Risk Drivers applied to several or many activities Some activities have several Risk Drivers assigned Capture entire impact of individual risks including the impact of the schedule s structure Discussion: Use example of risks and uncertainties in the resource-loaded offshore gas production platform Calculate correlation (rather than guess coefficients) Discussion: The concept of correlation and why it is important Risk Prioritization to prepare for risk mitigation Prioritize schedule risks leading to Risk Response Management and post-mitigated results Demonstrate Polaris and automated risk prioritization on Offshore Gas Production Platform Project Demonstrate the risk mitigation methods See how risk mitigation workshops help mitigate Risk Drivers Model risk mitigation and compare with pre-mitigated results What is a mitigation? Different from before, committed to, funded, resourced, monitored Integrate cost and schedule risk Use the schedule, assigned and costed summary resources Simulation captures schedule risk impact on the cost and Risk Drivers impact on the burn rate of time-dependent resources Schedule risk analysis basics Risk in activity duration Use the uncertainty concepts or Reference Ranges to help manage risk range data collection and uncertainty modeling Risk along a path in critical path method network schedule Risk at convergence points of parallel paths the Merge Bias Identify the high risk elements the Highest Risk Path Constraint dates in schedule risk testing important dates Scarce resources in schedule risk resource leveling Probabilistic branching Schedule Risk Case Study (small groups, report back results) Simple oil & gas project schedule network Identify Reference Ranges or important risk elements Use supplied risk ranges for selected elements Compute likelihood of overrun, contingency needed Use pocket calculators and the Method of Moments to derive the total schedule finish date probability distribution Demonstrate Primavera Risk Analysis (Pertmaster) on simple schedule Using the project example in the case study Compute probability of schedule overrun and schedule contingency Identify the highest risk activities / paths Discussion: Questions about the Monte Carlo Simulation method Scatter diagram, probabilistic cash flow Demonstrate these using Pertmaster software Discuss how oil & gas company budgets and schedules to risk-adjusted cost and time targets Project Risk Response Strategy examples for opportunities and threats Threat avoidance Threat mitigation Contingency planning Opportunity acceptance Opportunity sharing Opportunity exploit Opportunity enhance Case study Identify effective risk management actions for pipeline construction project -Take the top 5 risks identified earlier -Develop a list of primary and backup strategies to effectively mitigate risk Risk Monitoring and Control Risk reviews Audit of the Risk Management Processes Cycle through risk processes during the Project Life Cycle Characteristics of a Mature Project Risk Management Organization Discussion is our company a risk mature organization? What could be done to make it more mature? Summary of Risk Analysis and Management 5

6 COURSE DETAILS Title : Project Risk Assessment & Management Date : 1 4 March, 2016 Location : Bali, Indonesia INVESTMENT PACKAGES (Please Circle) INVESTMENT PACKAGE DEADLINE FULL MASTERCLASS Standard Price 26 February 2016 USD 3,595 Early Bird Offer 29 January 2016 USD 3,395 Group Discount (3 or more Delegates) 26 February 2016 Enjoy 10% discount for groups of 3 Group Discount is based on Standard Price *To enjoy the promotion & discount offer, payment must be made before dateline * For 7 or more delegates, please inquire for more attractive package. * Prices include lunches, refreshments and materials. Promotion & discount cannot be combined with other promotional offers. 1st Delegate Name: Job Title: Head of Department: 2nd Delegate Name: Job Title: Head of Department: 3rd Delegate Name: Job Title: Head of Department: Attention Invoice to: Company: Address: Country: DELEGATES DETAILS Department: Department: Department: INVOICE DETAILS Mr Mrs Ms Dr Others Mr Mrs Ms Dr Others By Credit Card: Please debit my credit card: Visa MasterCard AMEX Security Code: Card Number: Expiry Date: Name Printed on Card: By Direct Transfer: Please quote invoice number(s) on remittance advice PetroSync Global Pte Ltd Bank Details: Account Name: PetroSync Global Pte Ltd Bank Name: DBS Bank Ltd Bank Code: 7171 Bank Swift Code: DBSSSGSGXXX Branch Code: 288 Account No: SGD: USD: Bank Address: 12 Marina Boulevard, Level 3. Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3. Singapore All bank charges to be borne by payer. Please ensure that PetroSync Global Pte Ltd receives the full invoiced amount. Fax: Industry: Mr Mrs Ms Dr Others Postcode: Please note: - Indicate if you have already registered by Phone Fax Web - If you have not received an acknowledgement before the training, please call us to confirm your booking. PAYMENT METHOD COURSE CONSULTANT Name : Cay Aagen registration@petrosync.com Phone : Fax : TERMS AND CONDITIONS DISCLAIMER Please note that trainers and topics were confirmed at the time of publishing; however, PetroSync may necessitate substitutions, alterations or cancellations of the trainers or topics. As such, PetroSync reserves the right to change or cancel any part of its published courseme due to unforeseen circumstances. Any substitutions or alterations will be updated on our web page as soon as possible. DATA PROTECTION The information you provide will be safeguarded by PetroSync that may be used to keep you informed of relevant products and services. As an international group we may transfer your data on a global basis for the purpose indicated above. If you do not want us to share your information with other reputable companies, please tick this box CANCELLATION POLICY You may substitute delegates at any time as long as reasonable advance notice is given to PetroSync. For any cancellation received in writing not less than fourteen (14) working days prior to the training course, you will receive credit voucher less a SGD $200 administration fee and any related bank or credit card charges. Delegates who cancel less than fourteen (14) working days of the training course, or who do not attend the course, are liable to pay the full course fee and no refunds will be granted. In the event that PetroSync cancels or postpones an event for any reason and that the delegate is unable or unwilling to attend in on the rescheduled date, you will receive a credit voucher for 100% of the contract fee paid. You may use this credit voucher for another PetroSync to be mutually agreed with PetroSync, which must occur within a year from the date of postponement. PetroSync is not responsible for any loss or damage as a result of the cancellation policy. PetroSync will assume no liability whatsoever in the event this event is cancelled, rescheduled or postponed due to any Act of God, fire, act of government or state, war, civil commotion, insurrection, embargo, industrial action, or any other reason beyond management control. CERTIFICATE OF ATTENDANCE 70% attendance is required for PetroSync s Certificate of Attendance DETAILS Please accept our apologies for mail or that is incorrectly addressed. Please us at registration@petrosync.com and inform us of any incorrect details. We will amend them accordingly. CHARGES & FEE(S) CONFIRMATION I agree to PetroSync s terms & conditions, payment terms and cancellation policy. - For Payment by Direct Telegraphic Transfer, client has to bear both local and oversea bank charges. - For credit card payment, there is additional 4% credit card processing fee. Authorized Signature: PAYMENT TERMS : Payment is due in full at the time of registration. Full payment is mandatory for event attendance. 6