Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment

Transcription

1 OECD Workshop on Sustainability Assessment Methodologies Amsterdam, the Netherlands on January 2008 Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment Insights from the MATISSE project Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger Dr. Jill Jäger, MATISSE core group

2 The MATISSE Project funded in the 6th Framework Programme April 2005 March 2008 project coordinator: Jan Rotmans 22 partners Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 2

3 MATISSE hypothesis s a complement to today s more routine and pragmatic approaches to sustainability assessment, we need strategic-level sustainability assessment, which we call: ntegrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA) Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 3

4 Definition ISA MATISSE Definition Integrated Sustainability Assessment ISA is a cyclical, participatory process of scoping, envisioning, experimenting and learning through which a shared interpretation of sustainability for a specific context is developed and applied in an integrated manner in order to explore solutions to persistent problems of unsustainable development. Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 4

5 ISA conceptual framework (template) Scoping stage [shared interpretation of what sustainability means] Learning and evaluating stage [learning-by-doing and doing-bylearning] Envisioning stage [sustainability vision with pathways] Experimental stage [testing visions, pathways and policy options] Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 5

6 Integration of... ultiple goals into assessment objectives ustainability values and principles throughout the process ifferent dimensions of SD takeholders, policymakers and experts Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 6 olicy development into the assessment

7 Essential difference SIA vs ISA IA has emerged out of the prevailing growth perspective [Lisbon strategy] and represents an incrementalist paradigm SA challenges the prevailing growth perspective [Lisbon strategy] and aims to offer an alternative transitional paradigm SA and SIA are complementary Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 7

8 ISA Tools in the MATISSE Project Interlinking and improving existing ISA-tools - the use of a portfolio of existing Integrated Assessment (IA)-models and other tools like scenarios in a more creative and coherent manner, while also adjusting and improving them. Developing prototypes of new ISA-tools - the development of new conceptual models and modules that are based on a new paradigm that is rooted in complex systems theory, evolutionary economics, multi-level governance Dr. Friedrich and Hinterberger multi-agent modelling. 8

9 The role of models in ISA - Scoping and Envisioning Applications of certain models in previous ISAtype assessments and the scientific literature can help in the scoping stage of a sustainability assessment to define the problem and provide guidance on which measures could be appropriate to tackle the problem. Extensive scenario development and analysis with existing and/or improved models are useful in the envisioning stage Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 9

10 The role of models in ISA - Experimenting and Learning In the experimental stage, models are used to explore the potential of different measures and pathways to solve the sustainability problem at hand. If models from different schools can be coupled, they may provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for understanding the potential interactions between social, economic and environmental processes. In the learning stage, the models can be updated based on past experiences, in preparation for the next ISA cycle. Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 10

11 Linking existing modelling tools n example of linking models is provided by the MATISSE efforts to define possible limits to sustainable biomass demand and supply in Europe until 2050, including global trade linkages and an array of policy options. Since increased biomass demand would have implications for biogeochemical cycles, water systems, material and energy flows, a variety of models is required and these must be linked. Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 11

12 Sustainability issues related to increased biomass demand Why an ISA is required Competition with food production (increasing food prices) International trade Economy Model (GTAP) Land use expansion, GHG emissions, biodiversity Nutrient cycles (fertilizer use) IA model (IMAGE) Changes in carbon stocks and fluxes (vegetation and soil) Hydrological cycle and water constraints Biogeochemistry model (LPJ) Increased Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production HANPP Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 12

13 New tools for ISA nother goal of the MATISSE project is to develop a set of modelling tools that attempt to reproduce and mimic a variety of transition pathways, including the special case of sustainability transition pathways. Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 13

14 Initial results The results from the prototype transition models should not be considered a prediction, but rather an indicative simulation of radical societal change processes using novel modelling techniques. Initial tests show the model is capable of reproducing the transitions patterns we expect to see, including slow development of niches, followed by a more rapid take-off and then replacement of the regime, as well as failed transitions in which the regime adapts. Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 14

15 Messages ISA stimulates reframing of issues and social learning ISA explores pathways and makes trade-offs transparent A suite of tools is required, including innovative new tools Existing tools can be linked within an ISA process Transition approaches encourage use of new language in the dialogue with stakeholders Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 15

16 The end Thank you very much for your attention More information including this presentation at Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger 16