Complexity and Transition Management. Theory and practice

Transcription

1 Complexity and Transition Management Theory and practice Shivant Jhagroe Erasmus University Rotterdam (DRIFT) Florence, 13 February 2012

2 Today s crises de modelstijlen te bewerken niveau niveau de niveau Vijfde niveau

3 Outline Context for TM: Complexity, decisions & time Transition (Management) theory Dutch Case: The Welcoming Neighborhood Florence area Concluding intermezzo

4 Context for TM: Complexity, decisionmaking & time Decisionmaking Complexity Time

5 In this context: How can we understand contemporary crises affirmatively, and act accordingly?

6 Transition (Management) theory

7 From complex systems to transitions theory A transition is a fundamental change in structure, culture and practice a phase shift from one dynamic equilibrium to another, with alternating periods of slow and fast dynamics

8 Transitions are radical Transitions imply fundamental changes in structure, culture and practices structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure, institutions, rules, regulations, collective routines culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared orientation), paradigms practices: behaviour, operation, implementation Shared discourse and language for multi-actor learning and innovation processes

9 Borrowing from complex systems theory Complexity characteristics Emergence Dissipative structures Diversity and coherence New attractors, punctuated equilibriums Co-evolution Variation and selection Interaction, feedbacks Patterns, mechanisms

10 ...and other disciplines Policy sciences Sustainable Development Modeling Uncertainty Climate research Sociology Climate Klimaat models modellen IA structuratie Structuration Complexity theory emergence. Onzerkerh Scaling governance Scene 3P Multi Multifase TM phase CAS Transition Transitie Innovation studies Technology studies Management management SCOT CTA Multi-level Niche History 1980s 1990s 2000 Transition Management

11 Klik om de modelstijlen te bewerken Multi-phase Framework Tweede niveau Derde niveau Vierde niveau» Vijfde niveau From: Rotmans et al, 2005

12 Klik om de modelstijlen te bewerken Multi-level Framework Tweede niveau Derde niveau Vierde niveau» Vijfde niveau Niche-regimes From: Geels and Kemp, 2001

13 Klik om de modelstijlen te bewerken Transition Management Tweede niveau Derde niveau Vierde niveau» Vijfde niveau Loorbach, 2007

14 Transition management Rules of thumb long-term thinking as the basis for short term policy think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-level) learning as an important aim for policy ( learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning ) using uncertainties as a starting point for governance keeping options open (wide playing field)

15 The transition arena space for experimenting and envisioning society Regular policy arena - Short term - Regime players - Incremental change - Problem- and goal oriented Transition arenas - Long term - Innovators - System-innovation - Problem- and goal searching

16 Role of government Not in a directing role but a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role still an active but different role formulating vision and high ambition level creating space for frontrunners stimulating and enabling transition experiments removing barriers for sustainable innovation

17 Transition (Management) theory Complexity characteristics Theoretical principles of TM Emergence Creating space for niches Dissipative structures Focus on frontrunners Diversity and coherence Guided variation and selection New attractors, punctuated equilibriums Radical change in incremental steps Co-evolution Empowering niches Variation and selection Learning-by-doing, and doing-by-learning Interaction, feedbacks Multi-level, multi-domain approach Patterns, mechanisms Anticipation and adaptation

18 Transition (Management) theory Complexity characteristics Theoretical principles of TM Systemic instruments for TM Emergence Creating space for niches Transition arena Dissipative structures Focus on frontrunners Transition arena and competence analysis Diversity and coherence Guided variation and selection Tarnsition experiments and transition pathways New attractors, punctuated equilibriums Radical change in incremental steps Envisioning for sustainable futures Co-evolution Empowering niches Competence development Variation and selection Learning-by-doing, and doing-by-learning Deepening, broadening, sclaing up experiments Interaction, feedbacks Multi-level, multi-domain approach Complex system analysis Patterns, mechanisms Anticipation and adaptation Multi-pattern, multi-level analysis

19 Dutch Case: The Welcoming Neighborhood

20 Challenge and plan de campagne Klik om de modelstijlen te bewerken Tweede niveau Derde niveau Vierde niveau» Vijfde niveau

21 m de modelstijlen te bewerken de niveau de niveau Vierde niveau» Vijfde niveau

22 Florence Area

23 m de modelstijlen te bewerken ede niveau rde niveau Vierde niveau» Vijfde niveau

24 Klik om de modelstijlen te bewerken Tweede niveau Derde niveau Vierde niveau» Vijfde niveau

25 Concluding intermezzo? Some statements The uncertainty and challenges that Florence is facing are highly suitable for a transition governance/management approach Gaining legitimacy for transition experiements is virtually impossible

26 Thank you for your attention! Shivant Jhagroe Erasmus University Rotterdam (DRIFT)

27 Klik om de modelstijlen te bewerken Tweede niveau Derde niveau Vierde niveau» Vijfde niveau