Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2015
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1 Samu Kurri Suomen Pankki Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2015 Situation and outlook for the global economy Press conference 24 September Julkinen 1
2 Bank of Finland Bulletin 4/2015 Monetary policy and the global economy Main article Signs of life in the euro area economy Theme boxes providing background on the main article Increased uncertainty in the global economy Structural reforms to provide boost during lean years in the global economy China develops, growth slows *** Two theme articles How can we simultaneously maintain both price stability and financial stability in the euro area? Hanna Freystätter Protracted period of low interest rates places further demands on macroprudential supervision Katja Taipalus Jouni Timonen Julkinen 2
3 Themes of the presentation Seven lean years for the global economy Three stories of slowing growth Current situation and outlook for the global economy Factors shaping the business cycle China and world trade changing more permanently Bank of Finland forecast for the global economy Forecast summary Risks Julkinen 3
4 Seven lean years for the global economy Effects of the recession on output Euro area United States Japan Russia Finland China (right-hand scale) Index, 2008 = 100 Index, 2008 = Sources: National statistical authorities, Macrobond and calculations by the Bank of Finland Julkinen 4
5 Three stories of slowing growth The Great Recession The financial crisis of 2008 led to a recession in the real economy. Despite stimulus measures, output remains below potential. Prolonged period of slow growth Expected slowing of potential output is already dragging down investment (Secular Stagnation, Hansen 1938). Differences of emphasis: Larry Summers: low interest rates, prevention of pathdependency Robert Gordon: emphasis on supply-side factors. Opposing views: Joel Mokyr: Technological tailwind is more like a tornado Matti Pohjola: ICT utilisation is currently in the same phase as electricity utilisation in the 1930s. Julkinen 5
6 Distribution of potential output for ( ) Potential output Potential output per capita Trend productivity excl. capital Capital/ output Potential labour force USA 2.4 (1.7) 1.6 (1.2) 1.7 (1.2) 0.2 (0) -0.3 (0.1) Euro area 1.7 (1.5) 1.5 (1.5) 1.5 (1.7) 0 (-0.1) -0.1 (0) China 5.0 (2.4) 4.7 (2.8) 4.4 (3.2) 0.7 (0) -0.4 (-0.5) India 5.8 (4.3) 4.8 (3.9) 3.4 (3.8) 0.5 (0) 0.8 (0.1) Source: OECD Economic Outlook (May 2014). Julkinen 6
7 Current situation and outlook for the global economy Near-term cyclical developments are shaped by: Decline in oil and other commodity prices Ample liquidity Exchange rate changes Deleveraging Longer-term changes China s growth will continue to slow World trade growth has passed its peak Julkinen 7
8 Changes in the structure of Chinese Growth 60 % of GDP Private consumption Public consumption Fixed investment Sources: CEIC and Macrobond. Julkinen 8
9 Slower growth in world trade 3,5 Actual Average (excl. 2009) Average Average Forecast Trade growth / GDP growth, four-quarter moving average 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, Sources: IMF, World Bank, OECD and Bank of Finland. Julkinen 9
10 Structure of euro area and Finnish exports Julkinen 10
11 Summary of Bank of Finland forecast for the global economy % change on the previous year (previous forecast below) GDP f 2016f 2017f United States 2,4 2,6 3,0 2,8 2,4 3,1 3,0 2,8 EU22 1,3 1,7 1,8 1,9 1,2 1,6 1,9 1,8 Japan -0,1 0,6 1,1 1,0-0,1 0,6 1,4 1,0 China 7, , Russia 0, ,6-4,4-1,8 0,5 World 3,1 3,0 3,2 3,5 3,1 3,3 3,5 3,7 World trade 3,4 1,8 3,7 4,5 3,5 4,2 5,0 5,4 f = forecast. EU22 = euro area, Sweden, Denmark and United Kingdom. Source: Bank of Finland. Julkinen 11
12 Risks for the global economy External risks A sudden halt in Chinese growth is key external risk Increases in US interest rates may cause turbulence Situation in the Middle East and North Africa Internal risks Permanent, even deepening divergence in the euro area Country-specific consequences may be both sudden and longterm Longer-term risks Long shadow of the financial crisis and ageing population Weak risk resilience of public finances Julkinen 12
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