RaysWeather.Com Winter Fearless Forecast
|
|
- Jesse May
- 8 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Author: Dr. Ray Russell Founder and President of RaysWeather.Com Date: October 10, 2015 RaysWeather.Com Winter Fearless Forecast Background It's that time of year--leaves change, temperatures gradually fall, October festivals occur every weekend, some folks eagerly wish for coldest winter in the history of the world, and some media outlets always satisfy the snow hounds with forecasts of the worst winter ever. If you have been reading our forecasts for many years, you know we do not always satisfy the desires of the snow hounds; however, this year we will. I always feel the need to quickly temper the reader's expectations for long-range winter forecasts. Many long-range forecasts are never worth the pixels they are displayed on, and no long-range forecast is always correct. Being on the correct side of average seasonal snowfall 60%-70% of the time is geniuslevel forecasting. In spite of a few failed Fearless Forecasts, we have a track record of being better than most. After a near-perfect forecast, did not turn out so well as shown in Table 1. Table 1: Accuracy of Last Year s RWC Fearless Winter Forecast Location Forecast Actual Actual - Forecast Snowfall Snowfall Asheville, NC 18" 13" -5" Banner Elk, NC 60" 41" -19" Beech Mtn, NC 115" 69" -46" Boone, NC 48" 28-20" Hickory, NC 9" 4.5" -4.5" Independence, VA 30" 17" -13" Jefferson, NC 33" 25" -8" Morganton, NC 11" 4" -7" Waynesville, NC 18" 11" -7" Wilkesboro, NC 14" 10" -4" (Actual reports even within each location varied from site to site. I chose a snowfall total that fairly represented the average for each location.) Overall, our total snowfall forecasts were 25% to 40% too high. The bust was largely because we expected a moderate El Niño to develop; however, that did not happen. Instead, generally neutral to weak El Niño conditions developed. Then, the Fearless Forecast was never "bailed out" by the North
2 Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). If the NAO had become negative for a few weeks, last winter's persistent Mid- Atlantic storm track would have shifted farther south delivering more snow to the Southern Appalachians. As a consolation prize, we did have a very snowy February; in Boone, February 2015 was the 11 th snowiest February in the last 56 years. Temperatures? Last year, we forecast temperatures to be 0-1 degree colder than average; last winter's average was about 2 degrees below average. Summary of the Fearless Forecast for Winter As Fearless Forecasts go, this one is as bullish a forecast as we will ever make. Here you go, snow hounds! 33% greater snow than the 56-year average for the Mountains and 20% above average snow for the Foothills Temperatures averaging 1 to 2 degrees below the long-term average. This forecast would place the Southern Appalachians in the top 20% of seasonal snowfall totals. (Note: The forecast snowfall total includes snow/ice falling between October 2015 and May 2016.) Table 2: Specific Snowfall Forecasts for Selected Locations Location Expected Total Snow/Ice for Winter Asheville 20" Banner Elk 67" Beech Mountain 110" Boone 54" Hendersonville 15" Hickory 9" Independence, VA 29" Jefferson and West Jefferson 35" Lenoir 11" Morganton 12" Sparta 31" Spruce Pine 27" Sugar Mountain 105" Waynesville 19" Wilkesboro 13" Happy Skiing and Snowboarding! We ll keep you informed with the most reliable day-to-day forecasts for the Southern Appalachians and Foothills all winter. This forecast does not come out of thin air or some not to be named body part. It comes from serious analysis; continue reading for the explanation. Fearless Forecast Rationale ENSO Analysis The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the starting point for almost any long-range forecast in the United States. Other forecast indices have implications for winters in the Southern Appalachians, but
3 ENSO is the only one large-scale index that can be forecast with some confidence from several months away. However, as we saw last winter, even ENSO forecasts can fail. ENSO is a measure of large-scale weather conditions in the Equatorial Pacific. It fluctuates between El Niño (associated with warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific) and La Niña (associated with colder than average sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific). Both the current ENSO state and the forecast for ENSO are important for understanding weather patterns in the upcoming winter. Currently, the ENSO is classified as a strong El Niño, one of the strongest ever recorded in August. Figure 1 shows the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly from October 1, Almost all the Pacific from the Equator northward in the Western Hemisphere has warmer than normal sea surface temperatures. Figure 1: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 10/1/2015 (from However, El Niño may be near or at its peak intensity. Computer modelling used to assist climatologists in forecasting El Niño show the peak and subsequent diminishing of El Niño's intensity. Figure 2, shows an array of model predictions; while they disagree in the details, all forecast a weakening El Niño by late winter or spring The forecast for El Niño to be near its peak and diminishing by spring 2016 is crucial to our Fearless Forecast. Strong El Niños tend to pull too much heat/energy into the Eastern U. S. producing big storms but with too little cold air to make those "snow" storms for most of the Southern Appalachians. However, a weakening El Niño may "thread the needle" adding energy to systems entering the Gulf and East Coast but not overpowering cold air from the north thus producing a snowy and icy scenario for the Southern Appalachians.
4 Figure 2: Forecast for ENSO in 3-month Intervals (from Moderately strong El Niños have produced some of the more memorable winters in the Southern Appalachians. Figure 3 (on the following page) graphically shows total snowfall in the last 56 winters for Boone, NC. The red lines denote strong El Niño winters. The average snowfall in Boone for strong El Niño winters is 51.8" compared to an average of 41.4" for all winters (26% greater in strong El Niño winters). It's obvious from Figure 3 that not all El Niño winters are created equally. Given the forecast for the current El Niño to diminish by spring 2016, we arrived at a smaller set of most comparable winters winters in which El Niño was moderate to strong, but removing the strongest El Niños from consideration. We also eliminated from consideration because the El Niño peaked very early in winter and was weakening by January. So, we decided the following years were the Best-Fit for the upcoming winter: , , , , , , and Figure 4 compares our Best-Fit Winters with all El Niño Winters and all other winters. The amount of snow in the Best-Fit Winters got our attention! Average total snowfall in the Best Comparison Winters in Boone, NC, is 60.1", 45% greater than the 56- year average. However, given the typical challenge of cold air accompanying these energetic storms moving from the Gulf and up the East Coast, we do not believe the same percentage increase holds for lower elevations. So in our final forecast, while still forecasting a snowier than average winter for the Foothills, we are less enthusiastic there than we are for the higher mountain terrain. Also, the wrapping of warm air aloft into these systems tends to increase the threat of icy and "wintry mix" events.
5 Figure 3: Total Winter Snowfall in Boone, NC, Classified by ENSO (ENSO classifications derived from Figure 4: Snow totals from our Best-Fit Winters ( , , , , , , and ) compared with all El Niño Winters and all other winters. Snow totals shown are from Boone, NC.
6 Another important characteristic of strong El Niño winters can be seen in Figure 4. On average, they begin similar to or even warmer than other winters. Note that through December, strong El Niño winters have less snow than other winters in Figure 4. In strong El Niño winters, the snow tends to begin in January and then Februarys tend to be very snowy. Strong El Niño winters also tend to keep snow going longer into spring. Strong El Niño winters produce the most snow on average because warmer waters in the equatorial Pacific become breeding grounds for storms that travel from the Pacific to California then across the Southern U. S. Some of these storm systems breed Nor'easters moving up the Atlantic Coast. Figure 5 graphically illustrates what we expect the primary storm path to be this winter. Temperatures do not tend to be brutally cold in El Niño Winters; Figure 5: El Nino Winter Climate Pattern (from however, because of persistent wet, cloudy conditions with storms moving up the East Coast. We do expect cooler than average temperatures. Figure 6 shows a comparison of temperatures from Boone, NC for: the Best-Fit Winters, strong El Niño winters, and all other winters. The main takeaways from the analysis of ENSO forecast for the coming winter are: 1. We have high confidence for a wet winter because of the storm track across the Pacific into the Gulf and up the East Coast. 2. We expect a much snowier-than-average winter in the Southern Appalachians, particularly at higher elevations. The effect may not be as great for the Foothills. 3. Icing may be an increased threat this winter. Figure 6: Average temperatures from our Best-Fit Winters ( , , , , , , and ) compared with all El Nino Winters and all other winters. Temperature data is from Boone, NC.
7 Recent Winter Trends Figure 7 shows the 10-year average winter snowfall for Boone NC for each year since Figure 7: 10-year Snowfall Average for Boone NC Figure 7 shows a decrease in yearly snowfall for Boone NC between 1985 and The 10-year average increased from 2008 to 2011; however, it should be noted that only 2 of the last 11 years (and 6 of the past 26 years) have had more than the 56-year average (see Figure 3). The main takeaway from recent winter trends is that our cold and snowy enthusiasm regarding the strong El Niño should be constrained by snowfall trends over the past 30 years. Arctic Ice Figure 8 shows current ice cover in the Arctic relative to average and ice cover in had the least Arctic ice coverage ever recorded. The extent of Arctic ice has recovered somewhat from 2012 but is still 2 standard deviations below the long-term average. Initially, one would think that less ice would contribute to a warmer atmosphere since ice reflects more solar radiation (compared to liquid water that absorbs more solar radiation). However, some scientists believe that this phenomenon may have contributed to high latitude blocking and high magnitude troughs in the northern hemisphere during the last few winters. Figure 5: Extent of Arctic Ice (from nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)
8 The main takeaway from the Arctic Ice section: Due to uncertainty regarding its impact on snow and cold in the Eastern U. S., we did not use the ice extent as a factor in the winter forecast. The North Atlantic Oscillation Wildcard Every year, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the wild card for long-range winter forecasts. Without belaboring the details, the NAO is the North Atlantic's distant cousin of ENSO. (See for details on both the Arctic Oscillation and NAO.) I know of no reliable way to forecast the NAO three to four months in advance. Whoever "cracks that nut" will deserve a Nobel Prize in Physics. In the snowy winter of , a moderate El Niño combined with a persistently negative NAO to produce the third snowiest winter on record. The pattern featured high latitude blocking in Greenland and Eastern Canada producing a persistent trough in the Eastern U. S. Figure 1 shows sea surface temperatures that might result in a negative NAO (warm water in the Gulf of Alaska and warm water just off the Northeast U. S. Coast), but betting on the NAO can cost anyone the mortgage money. The main takeaway from the NAO is no clear signal but a hunch that snowier is smarter. Summary Long-range winter forecast is always a risky proposition. Don't put much stock in this or any other longrange forecast. But here's what we think: High confidence in a wet winter Medium confidence in a slow start to winter A snowier than average winter in the Foothills A much snowier that average winter In the Southern Appalachians A slightly colder than normal winter The heart of our snowy winter will be in late January and February Increased risk of ice and wintry mix events Now, quit fretting over winter and enjoy a beautiful fall. Winter is still two months away. "You're still here? It's over. Go home... go!" -- Ferris Bueller
Geography affects climate.
KEY CONCEPT Climate is a long-term weather pattern. BEFORE, you learned The Sun s energy heats Earth s surface unevenly The atmosphere s temperature changes with altitude Oceans affect wind flow NOW, you
More informationHow Do Oceans Affect Weather and Climate?
How Do Oceans Affect Weather and Climate? In Learning Set 2, you explored how water heats up more slowly than land and also cools off more slowly than land. Weather is caused by events in the atmosphere.
More informationClimate of Illinois Narrative Jim Angel, state climatologist. Introduction. Climatic controls
Climate of Illinois Narrative Jim Angel, state climatologist Introduction Illinois lies midway between the Continental Divide and the Atlantic Ocean, and the state's southern tip is 500 miles north of
More informationCLIMATE, WATER & LIVING PATTERNS THINGS
CLIMATE, WATER & LIVING PATTERNS NAME THE SIX MAJOR CLIMATE REGIONS DESCRIBE EACH CLIMATE REGION TELL THE FIVE FACTORS THAT AFFECT CLIMATE EXPLAIN HOW THOSE FACTORS AFFECT CLIMATE DESCRIBE HOW CLIMATES
More informationIGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTRE
IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATION CENTRE CLIMATE WATCH REF: ICPAC/CW/No.32 May 2016 EL NIÑO STATUS OVER EASTERN EQUATORIAL OCEAN REGION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OVER THE GREATER HORN OF FRICA DURING
More informationAnyone Else Notice That Its Been Windy Lately?
National Weather Service Aberdeen, South Dakota January 2014 Inside this issue: Has it Been Windy Lately or What? 2013 Year in Review 2013 Year in Review (cont.) 1 2 3 Has it Been Windy Lately or What?
More informationName Period 4 th Six Weeks Notes 2015 Weather
Name Period 4 th Six Weeks Notes 2015 Weather Radiation Convection Currents Winds Jet Streams Energy from the Sun reaches Earth as electromagnetic waves This energy fuels all life on Earth including the
More informationThe Pennsylvania Observer
The Pennsylvania Observer August 3, 2009 July 2009 - Pennsylvania Weather Recap Written by: Dan DePodwin After a cool month of June, some hoped July would bring usual summertime warmth to the state of
More information2. The map below shows high-pressure and low-pressure weather systems in the United States.
1. Which weather instrument has most improved the accuracy of weather forecasts over the past 40 years? 1) thermometer 3) weather satellite 2) sling psychrometer 4) weather balloon 6. Wind velocity is
More informationENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 June 2015
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 June 2015 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
More informationWEATHER AND CLIMATE practice test
WEATHER AND CLIMATE practice test Multiple Choice Identify the choice that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1. What role does runoff play in the water cycle? a. It is the process in
More informationSeasonal & Daily Temperatures. Seasons & Sun's Distance. Solstice & Equinox. Seasons & Solar Intensity
Seasonal & Daily Temperatures Seasons & Sun's Distance The role of Earth's tilt, revolution, & rotation in causing spatial, seasonal, & daily temperature variations Please read Chapter 3 in Ahrens Figure
More informationSouthern AER Atmospheric Education Resource
Southern AER Atmospheric Education Resource Vol. 9 No. 5 Spring 2003 Editor: Lauren Bell In this issue: g Climate Creations exploring mother nature s remote control for weather and Climate. g Crazy Climate
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 May 2011
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 May 2011 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
More informationChapter Overview. Seasons. Earth s Seasons. Distribution of Solar Energy. Solar Energy on Earth. CHAPTER 6 Air-Sea Interaction
Chapter Overview CHAPTER 6 Air-Sea Interaction The atmosphere and the ocean are one independent system. Earth has seasons because of the tilt on its axis. There are three major wind belts in each hemisphere.
More informationJessica Blunden, Ph.D., Scientist, ERT Inc., Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., Director,, and Chair of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research Jessica
More informationSPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOLAR CYCLE DURING THE LAST 130 YEARS
SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOLAR CYCLE DURING THE LAST 130 YEARS Kalevi Mursula, Ville Maliniemi, Timo Asikainen ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence Department of
More informationClimate Change on the Prairie:
Climate Change on the Prairie: A Basic Guide to Climate Change in the High Plains Region - UPDATE Global Climate Change Why does the climate change? The Earth s climate has changed throughout history and
More informationGlobal Seasonal Phase Lag between Solar Heating and Surface Temperature
Global Seasonal Phase Lag between Solar Heating and Surface Temperature Summer REU Program Professor Tom Witten By Abstract There is a seasonal phase lag between solar heating from the sun and the surface
More informationTemporal variation in snow cover over sea ice in Antarctica using AMSR-E data product
Temporal variation in snow cover over sea ice in Antarctica using AMSR-E data product Michael J. Lewis Ph.D. Student, Department of Earth and Environmental Science University of Texas at San Antonio ABSTRACT
More informationATM S 111, Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast
ATM S 111, Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast DARGAN M. W. FRIERSON DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DAY 1: OCTOBER 1, 2015 Outline How exactly the Sun heats the Earth How strong? Important concept
More informationGraphing Sea Ice Extent in the Arctic and Antarctic
Graphing Sea Ice Extent in the Arctic and Antarctic Summary: Students graph sea ice extent (area) in both polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) over a three-year period to learn about seasonal variations
More informationCGC1D1: Interactions in the Physical Environment Factors that Affect Climate
Name: Date: Day/Period: CGC1D1: Interactions in the Physical Environment Factors that Affect Climate Chapter 12 in the Making Connections textbook deals with Climate Connections. Use pages 127-144 to fill
More informationHow to analyze synoptic-scale weather patterns Table of Contents
How to analyze synoptic-scale weather patterns Table of Contents Before You Begin... 2 1. Identify H and L pressure systems... 3 2. Locate fronts and determine frontal activity... 5 3. Determine surface
More informationFLOOD FORECASTING PRACTICE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FLOOD FORECASTING PRACTICE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA California Department of Water Resources Post Office Box 219000, Sacramento, California 95821 9000 USA By Maurice Roos, Chief Hydrologist ABSTRACT Although
More informationWhat Causes Climate? Use Target Reading Skills
Climate and Climate Change Name Date Class Climate and Climate Change Guided Reading and Study What Causes Climate? This section describes factors that determine climate, or the average weather conditions
More informationScholar: Elaina R. Barta. NOAA Mission Goal: Climate Adaptation and Mitigation
Development of Data Visualization Tools in Support of Quality Control of Temperature Variability in the Equatorial Pacific Observed by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Data Buoy Array Abstract Scholar: Elaina
More informationEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Review of possible impact on agricultural production in 2014/15 following the increased probability of occurrence
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Review of possible impact on agricultural production in 2014/15 following the increased probability of occurrence EL NIÑO Definition and historical episodes El Niño
More informationNATURAL GAS PRICE VOLATILITY
NATURAL GAS PRICE VOLATILITY I. Summary This brief white paper on natural gas prices is intended to discuss the potential for natural gas prices to be very volatile during the winter of 2003-04. Prices
More informationArizona Climate Summary February 2015 Summary of conditions for January 2015
Arizona Climate Summary February 2015 Summary of conditions for January 2015 January 2015 Temperature and Precipitation Summary January 1 st 14 th : January started off with a very strong low pressure
More informationThe following words and their definitions should be addressed before completion of the reading:
Seasons Vocabulary: The following words and their definitions should be addressed before completion of the reading: sphere any round object that has a surface that is the same distance from its center
More informationMIAMI-SOUTH FLORIDA National Weather Service Forecast Office http://www.weather.gov/miami
MIAMI-SOUTH FLORIDA National Weather Service Forecast Office http://www.weather.gov/miami November 2014 Weather Summary Cooler and Drier than Normal December 1, 2014: Cooler than normal temperatures was
More information2013 Annual Climate Summary for the Southeast United States
Months of heavy rain forced the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers to open the spillways at Lake Hartwell, located at the headwaters of the Savannah River along the South Carolina-Georgia border, on July 9,.
More informationThe Oceans Role in Climate
The Oceans Role in Climate Martin H. Visbeck A Numerical Portrait of the Oceans The oceans of the world cover nearly seventy percent of its surface. The largest is the Pacific, which contains fifty percent
More informationHurricanes. Characteristics of a Hurricane
Hurricanes Readings: A&B Ch. 12 Topics 1. Characteristics 2. Location 3. Structure 4. Development a. Tropical Disturbance b. Tropical Depression c. Tropical Storm d. Hurricane e. Influences f. Path g.
More informationHeavy Rainfall from Hurricane Connie August 1955 By Michael Kozar and Richard Grumm National Weather Service, State College, PA 16803
Heavy Rainfall from Hurricane Connie August 1955 By Michael Kozar and Richard Grumm National Weather Service, State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction Hurricane Connie became the first hurricane of the
More informationIEAGHG Information Paper 2015-10; The Earth s Getting Hotter and So Does the Scientific Debate
IEAGHG Information Paper 2015-10; The Earth s Getting Hotter and So Does the Scientific Debate A recent study published in Nature Climate Change 1 suggests that the rate of climate change we're experiencing
More informationAtmospheric Dynamics of Venus and Earth. Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics UCLA 2 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Atmospheric Dynamics of Venus and Earth G. Schubert 1 and C. Covey 2 1 Department of Earth and Space Sciences Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics UCLA 2 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
More informationClimates are described by the same conditions used to describe
58 The Causes of Climate R E A D I N G Climates are described by the same conditions used to describe weather, such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. You now know that oceans have an important effect
More informationThe Atmosphere and Winds
Oceanography 10, T. James Noyes, El Camino College 8A-1 The Atmosphere and Winds We need to learn about the atmosphere, because the ocean and atmosphere are tightly interconnected with one another: you
More informationTHE CURIOUS CASE OF THE PLIOCENE CLIMATE. Chris Brierley, Alexey Fedorov and Zhonghui Lui
THE CURIOUS CASE OF THE PLIOCENE CLIMATE Chris Brierley, Alexey Fedorov and Zhonghui Lui Outline Introduce the warm early Pliocene Recent Discoveries in the Tropics Reconstructing the early Pliocene SSTs
More informationSun Earth Relationships
1 ESCI-61 Introduction to Photovoltaic Technology Sun Earth Relationships Ridha Hamidi, Ph.D. Spring (sun aims directly at equator) Winter (northern hemisphere tilts away from sun) 23.5 2 Solar radiation
More informationW.C. Rusty Riese, PhD Adjunct Professor, Rice University
W.C. Rusty Riese, PhD Adjunct Professor, Rice University What are we being told? What are the data? What are the take-aways? What are your responsibilities? Mann Hockey Stick Curve The Arctic is melting
More informationSeasonal Temperature Variations
Seasonal and Daily Temperatures Fig. 3-CO, p. 54 Seasonal Temperature Variations What causes the seasons What governs the seasons is the amount of solar radiation reaching the ground What two primary factors
More informationENVIRONMENTAL STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION: CLIMATE SYSTEM Vol. II - Low-Latitude Climate Zones and Climate Types - E.I. Khlebnikova
LOW-LATITUDE CLIMATE ZONES AND CLIMATE TYPES E.I. Khlebnikova Main Geophysical Observatory, St. Petersburg, Russia Keywords: equatorial continental climate, ITCZ, subequatorial continental (equatorial
More informationClimate Change in North Carolina
Climate Change in North Carolina Dr. Chip Konrad Director of the The Southeast Regional Climate Center Associate Professor Department of Geography University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill The Southeast
More informationWhen people think of climate change, they usually think of the atmosphere first. They think of the kind of things they hear about in the weather
3 Climate change so far When people think of climate change, they usually think of the atmosphere first. They think of the kind of things they hear about in the weather forecast: air temperature, rainfall,
More informationExamining the Recent Pause in Global Warming
Examining the Recent Pause in Global Warming Global surface temperatures have warmed more slowly over the past decade than previously expected. The media has seized this warming pause in recent weeks,
More informationSouth Dakota Severe Weather Awareness Week April 22nd through 26th
National Weather Service Aberdeen, South Dakota April 2013 Inside this issue: Severe Weather Awareness Impact Based Warnings Impact Based Warnings (cont) Record Cold March Record Cold March (cont) Seasonal
More informationExtra-Tropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate:
Extra-Tropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate: Observational Evidence of Trends in Frequencies and Intensities in the North Pacific, North Atlantic, & Great Lakes Regions David Levinson Scientific Services
More informationObserved Cloud Cover Trends and Global Climate Change. Joel Norris Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Observed Cloud Cover Trends and Global Climate Change Joel Norris Scripps Institution of Oceanography Increasing Global Temperature from www.giss.nasa.gov Increasing Greenhouse Gases from ess.geology.ufl.edu
More informationState Heating Oil & Propane Program Final Report Winter 2004/2005
Commonwealth of Massachusetts Division of Energy Resources State Heating Oil & Propane Program Final Report Winter 2004/2005 May 2005 Mitt Romney Governor Kerry Healey Lt. Governor Beth Lindstrom Director,
More informationFrequently Asked Questions
From the report accepted by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change but not approved in detail Frequently Asked Questions FAQ Citation: These Frequently Asked Questions have been
More information2008 Global Surface Temperature in GISS Analysis
2008 Global Surface Temperature in GISS Analysis James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Ken Lo Calendar year 2008 was the coolest year since 2000, according to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies analysis
More informationPMEL Press Releases and NOAA News Stories FY09- FY14
PMEL Press Releases and NOAA News Stories FY09- FY14 PMEL WIDE Oceanographer named to head NOAA s Seattle research laboratory http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111018_pmel.html CLIMATE THEME most
More informationWater & Climate Review
Water & Climate Review 1. The cross section below shows the direction of air flowing over a mountain. Points A and B are at the same elevation on opposite sides of the mountain. 4. The graph below shows
More informationOrbital-Scale Climate Change
Orbital-Scale Climate Change Climate Needed for Ice Age Warm winter and non-frozen oceans so lots of evaporation and snowfall Cool summer so that ice does not melt Ice Age Model When ice growing ocean
More informationThe Polar Climate Zones
The Polar Climate Zones How cold is it in the polar climate? Polar areas are the coldest of all the major climate zones The Sun is hardly ever high enough in the sky to cause the plentiful ice to melt,
More informationCHAPTER 5 Lectures 10 & 11 Air Temperature and Air Temperature Cycles
CHAPTER 5 Lectures 10 & 11 Air Temperature and Air Temperature Cycles I. Air Temperature: Five important factors influence air temperature: A. Insolation B. Latitude C. Surface types D. Coastal vs. interior
More informationWHITE PAPER. Winter Driving
WHITE PAPER Winter Driving WHITE PAPER Introduction According to the National Weather Service, 70% of motor accidents in the U.S. occur from ice related conditions. In Canada, when it comes to winter driving,
More information8.5 Comparing Canadian Climates (Lab)
These 3 climate graphs and tables of data show average temperatures and precipitation for each month in Victoria, Winnipeg and Whitehorse: Figure 1.1 Month J F M A M J J A S O N D Year Precipitation 139
More informationEl Niño 1997-1998 in the Midwest a
Data/Case Study 2-1 El Niño 1997-1998 in the Midwest a by Stanley A. Changnon, Steven D. Hilberg, and Kenneth E. Kunkel Atmospheric Environment Section Illinois State Water Survey A Division of the Illinois
More informationGeorgia Performance Standards Framework for Natural Disasters 6 th Grade
The following instructional plan is part of a GaDOE collection of Unit Frameworks, Performance Tasks, examples of Student Work, and Teacher Commentary. Many more GaDOE approved instructional plans are
More informationAnnex eleven: Climate Change Scenarios
Annex eleven: Climate Change Scenarios 1. SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SECOND NATIONAL COMMUNICATION Rainfall: Maps 9 (a, b and c) show the relationship between present and future status. The red colour
More informationCHAPTER 3. The sun and the seasons. Locating the position of the sun
zenith 90 summer solstice 75 equinox 52 winter solstice 29 altitude angles observer Figure 3.1: Solar noon altitude angles for Melbourne SOUTH winter midday shadow WEST summer midday shadow summer EAST
More informationFORENSIC WEATHER CONSULTANTS, LLC
NOTE: MOST TIMES, LOCATIONS & DATA HAVE BEEN CHANGED FOR THIS SAMPLE REPORT FORENSIC WEATHER CONSULTANTS, LLC Howard Altschule Forensic Meteorologist 1971 Western Avenue, #200 Albany, New York 12203 (518)
More informationChapter 3: Climate and Climate Change Answers
Chapter 3: Climate and Climate Change Answers Section A: Climate 1. (a) Explain what each of the following means: (4 x 1 mark) (i) climate the average weather of an area over a 25 30 year period (ii) maritime
More informationFOURTH GRADE WEATHER
FOURTH GRADE WEATHER 1 WEEK LESSON PLANS AND ACTIVITIES WATER CYCLE OVERVIEW OF FOURTH GRADE WATER WEEK 1. PRE: Comparing different reservoirs of water. LAB: Experimenting with surface tension and capillary
More informationData Sets of Climate Science
The 5 Most Important Data Sets of Climate Science Photo: S. Rahmstorf This presentation was prepared on the occasion of the Arctic Expedition for Climate Action, July 2008. Author: Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor
More informationThe Balance of Power in the Earth-Sun System
NASA Facts National Aeronautics and Space Administration www.nasa.gov The Balance of Power in the Earth-Sun System The Sun is the major source of energy for Earth s oceans, atmosphere, land, and biosphere.
More informationSouth Africa. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles South Africa A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate
More informationChristmas. National Meteorological Library and Archive Fact sheet 5 White Christmas. (version 01)
Christmas National Meteorological Library and Archive Fact sheet 5 White Christmas (version 01) The National Meteorological Library and Archive Many people have an interest in the weather and the processes
More informationdefined largely by regional variations in climate
1 Physical Environment: Climate and Biomes EVPP 110 Lecture Instructor: Dr. Largen Fall 2003 2 Climate and Biomes Ecosystem concept physical and biological components of environment are considered as single,
More informationWe already went through a (small, benign) climate change in The Netherlands
We already went through a (small, benign) climate change in The Netherlands 15-16 October 1987, gusts till 220 km/h, great damage 2004, almost 1400 tornado s December (!!) 2001, Faxai, 879 mbar 27 December
More informationA Few Facts about Antarctica
A Few Facts about Antarctica Antarctica is the continent that surrounds the South Pole, the southernmost point at the bottom of the earth. Antarctica is a continent because it is land that is covered by
More informationGreat Plains and Midwest Climate Outlook 19 March 2015
Great Plains and Midwest Climate Outlook 19 March 2015 Wendy Ryan Assistant State Climatologist Colorado State University wendy.ryan@colostate.edu Grass fire in SE Nebraska 13 March 2015 General Information
More information7613-1 - Page 1. Weather Unit Exam Pre-Test Questions
Weather Unit Exam Pre-Test Questions 7613-1 - Page 1 Name: 1) Equal quantities of water are placed in four uncovered containers with different shapes and left on a table at room temperature. From which
More informationClimate, water and renewable energy in the Nordic countries
102 Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change Hydroclimatic Variability (Proceedings of symposium S6 held during the Seventh IAHS Scientific Assembly at Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, April 2005). IAHS
More information6 th Grade Science Assessment: Weather & Water Select the best answer on the answer sheet. Please do not make any marks on this test.
Select the be answer on the answer sheet. Please do not make any marks on this te. 1. Weather is be defined as the A. changes that occur in cloud formations from day to day. B. amount of rain or snow that
More informationMs Chairman and distinguished guests,
Ms Chairman and distinguished guests, On behalf of the Ministry of the Environment, I am honored to open this conference that brings together scientists, policymakers and civil society from the Barents
More informationLecture 4: Pressure and Wind
Lecture 4: Pressure and Wind Pressure, Measurement, Distribution Forces Affect Wind Geostrophic Balance Winds in Upper Atmosphere Near-Surface Winds Hydrostatic Balance (why the sky isn t falling!) Thermal
More informationSIXTH GRADE WEATHER 1 WEEK LESSON PLANS AND ACTIVITIES
SIXTH GRADE WEATHER 1 WEEK LESSON PLANS AND ACTIVITIES WATER CYCLE OVERVIEW OF SIXTH GRADE WATER WEEK 1. PRE: Evaluating components of the water cycle. LAB: Experimenting with porosity and permeability.
More informationThe Ice Age By: Sue Peterson
www.k5learning.com Objective sight words (pulses, intermittent, isotopes, chronicle, methane, tectonic plates, volcanism, configurations, land-locked, erratic); concepts (geological evidence and specific
More informationAnswers for the Study Guide: Sun, Earth and Moon Relationship Test
Answers for the Study Guide: Sun, Earth and Moon Relationship Test 1) It takes one day for the Earth to make one complete on its axis. a. Rotation 2) It takes one year for the Earth to make one around
More informationCalifornia Standards Grades 9 12 Boardworks 2009 Science Contents Standards Mapping
California Standards Grades 912 Boardworks 2009 Science Contents Standards Mapping Earth Sciences Earth s Place in the Universe 1. Astronomy and planetary exploration reveal the solar system s structure,
More informationAir Masses and Fronts
Air Masses and Fronts Air Masses The weather of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains is dominated by large masses of air that travel south from the wide expanses of land in Canada, and north from
More informationSolar energy and the Earth s seasons
Solar energy and the Earth s seasons Name: Tilt of the Earth s axis and the seasons We now understand that the tilt of Earth s axis makes it possible for different parts of the Earth to experience different
More informationSTUDY GUIDE: Earth Sun Moon
The Universe is thought to consist of trillions of galaxies. Our galaxy, the Milky Way, has billions of stars. One of those stars is our Sun. Our solar system consists of the Sun at the center, and all
More informationCool Spaces. earth-wise guide to. green strategies: light strategies: Keep Austin Cool
earth-wise guide to Cool Spaces green strategies: 1. Trees and leafy plants 2. Green roofs 3. Green walls light strategies: 4. Reflective roofs 5. Permeable pavement 6. Shade structures Keep Austin Cool
More informationHow To Assess Natural Hazards In Houston County, Minn.
Natural Hazards Assessment Houston County, MN Prepared by: NOAA / National Weather Service La Crosse, WI Natural Hazards Assessment for Houston County, MN Prepared by NOAA / National Weather Service La
More informationOk, so if the Earth weren't tilted, we'd have a picture like the one shown below: 12 hours of daylight at all latitudes more insolation in the
Ok, so if the Earth weren't tilted, we'd have a picture like the one shown below: 12 hours of daylight at all latitudes more insolation in the tropics, less at higher latitudes Ok, so if the Earth weren't
More informationTexas Department of Public Safety Texas Division of Emergency Management. Texas State Operations Center
Texas Department of Public Safety Texas Division of Emergency Management Texas State Operations Center Situation Awareness Brief Saturday, July 20 th 2013 As of 0900 CDT Tropical Weather Outlook For the
More informationClimate Extremes Research: Recent Findings and New Direc8ons
Climate Extremes Research: Recent Findings and New Direc8ons Kenneth Kunkel NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites North Carolina State University and National Climatic Data Center h#p://assessment.globalchange.gov
More informationLed by growth in Texas, the Southeast, and Northeast, power burn is headed for a January record
EIA - Natural Gas Weekly Update for week ending January 28, 2015 Release Date: January 29, 2015 Next Release: February 5, 2015 In the News: Led by growth in Texas, the Southeast, and Northeast, power burn
More informationLab Activity on the Causes of the Seasons
Lab Activity on the Causes of the Seasons 2002 Ann Bykerk-Kauffman, Dept. of Geological and Environmental Sciences, California State University, Chico * Objectives When you have completed this lab you
More information6. Base your answer to the following question on the graph below, which shows the average monthly temperature of two cities A and B.
1. Which single factor generally has the greatest effect on the climate of an area on the Earth's surface? 1) the distance from the Equator 2) the extent of vegetative cover 3) the degrees of longitude
More informationCELESTIAL EVENTS CALENDAR APRIL 2014 TO MARCH 2015
CELESTIAL EVENTS CALENDAR APRIL 2014 TO MARCH 2015 *** Must See Event 2014 ***April 8 - Mars at Opposition. The red planet will be at its closest approach to Earth and its face will be fully illuminated
More informationMIAMI-SOUTH FLORIDA National Weather Service Forecast Office http://www.weather.gov/miami
MIAMI-SOUTH FLORIDA National Weather Service Forecast Office http://www.weather.gov/miami January Summary: Warm and Dry Winter Rolls On February 1, 2013: South Florida s warm and dry winter pattern of
More informationWeather Highlight: Dense Fog at Fancy Gap leads to 96-car pileup on I-77: March 31, 2013. Inside this Issue:
Welcome to the Spring 2013 Newsletter of the Blacksburg, VA Weather Forecast Office (WFO) of the National Weather Service (NWS)! In this issue we present a variety of information on weather, water and
More information