Extra-Tropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate:
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1 Extra-Tropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate: Observational Evidence of Trends in Frequencies and Intensities in the North Pacific, North Atlantic, & Great Lakes Regions David Levinson Scientific Services Division - Climate Monitoring Branch NOAA National Climatic Data Center Asheville, NC Peter Bromirski Integrative Oceanography Division Scripps Institution of Oceanography UCSD La Jolla, CA 1 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
2 IPCC & CCSP Assessments IPCC AR4: WG1 concluded that there has been a northward shift in storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere of ~180 km Evidence of increasing counts of ETCs in High Latitudes, and a decrease in counts of ETCs in Mid-Latitudes CCSP Synthesis & Assessment Product 3.3 Weather & Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate Focus is on North America, Caribbean & Pacific Islands Assessment of changes in ETCs along Pacific & Atlantic Coasts Also changes in ETCs over interior regions (i.e. Great Lakes, Canada, etc.) 2 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
3 Tracking Changes in Extra-Tropical Cyclones Annual/Seasonal Storm Counts: Derived from reanalysis studies (NCEP-NCAR, ERA-40) ETC Intensities: Changes in MSLP 500-hPa Geopotential Heights Observed changes in surface wave heights & energy: Buoy time series analysis Impacts on Coasts Shoaling waves and erosion Damage estimates and fatalities Other metrics: Multiple parameter analysis 3 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
4 Northern Hemisphere ETCs (McCabe et al. 2001) 4 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
5 Northern Hemisphere ETCs (Paciorek et al. 2002) 5 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
6 Conclusions Northward shift in North Pacific & North Atlantic storm tracks verified by a number of studies Trends in frequency from reanalysis data (NCEP-NCAR & ERA-40) have the most statistically significant results Strong/Extreme ETCs appear to be intensifying over the North Pacific and North Atlantic However, no apparent change in Nor easter intensity (or frequency) Likely due to the smaller study area along coast Longer-term records show several periods of enhanced storm activity in the late 19 th & early 20 th centuries 6 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
7 Great Lakes Cyclones Conclusions (Cont.) Long-term increase in annual frequency based on station data Most significant increases observed during cold season, especially late Fall (Nov Dec) More analysis needed to be extend record (currently ends in 1990) Trends in Hs in North Atlantic Deep Water Buoys Suggest a Northward Shift in ETC activity Limited number of statistically significant trends in buoy data Decrease in # of events in Cape May record Increase in mean Hs and mean duration in Cape Cod record for the most extreme events (5.4 m threshold) Short record and data gaps preclude definitive verification Buoy records need to be re-checked for any instrumentation, processing or location changes Via R. Bouchard, NDBC (personal comm.) 7 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
8 East North Pacific Basin Buoys 8 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
9 East North Pacific Bromirski et al. (2005) Short Period Wave Energy (SP) along SoCal coast is decreasing Gulf of Alaska Washington So California Long Period (LP) and SP wave energy along Pacific NW is increasing No definitive change in Gulf of Alaska Storm tracks appear to be shifting northward Tracks also appear to be more zonally oriented 9 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
10 San Francisco - Non-Tide Residuals 10 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
11 Northwest Atlantic Buoys 11 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
12 Trends in Atlantic ETCs Wang et al. (2006) 12 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
13 Trends in Strong Atlantic ETCs Wang et al. (2006) 13 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
14 Great Lakes Cyclones Angel and Isard (1998) 14 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
15 Great Lakes Cyclones - Autumn Angel and Isard (1998) 15 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
16 East Coast Winter Storms Nor easters Hirsch et al. (2001) 16 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
17 Average Annual Nor easter Intensity (Hirsch et al. 2001) 17 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
18 Buoy Wave Analysis NDBC Buoy Significant Wave Heights (Hs) Trends of mean significant wave height (Hs), total wave events, and mean wave event duration (hr) Analysis applied >2m and >5.4m thresholds on Hs using hourly buoy data from the NOAA NDBC Seasonal means calculated for both the cold and warm seasons: Cold season (Nov Apr) Warm Season (Jun Oct) 18 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
19 Buoy #41001: off Cape Hatteras NC Solid trends significant >90% CL (α < 0.1) Solid circles >75% obs - Open circles <75% obs Dashed trends <90% CL (α > 0.1) 19 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
20 Buoy #44004: off Cape May NJ Solid trends significant >90% CL (α < 0.1) Solid circles >75% obs - Open circles <75% obs Dashed trends <90% CL (α > 0.1) 20 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
21 Buoy #44011: off Cape Cod MA Solid circles >75% obs - Open circles <75% obs Solid trends significant >90% CL (α < 0.1) Dashed trends <90% CL (α > 0.1) 21 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
22 Conclusions Northward shift in North Pacific & North Atlantic storm tracks verified by a number of studies Trends in frequency from reanalysis data (NCEP-NCAR & ERA-40) have the most statistically significant results Strong/Extreme ETCs appear to be intensifying over the North Pacific and North Atlantic However, no apparent change in Nor easter intensity (or frequency) Likely due to the smaller study area along coast Longer-term records show several periods of enhanced storm activity in the late 19 th & early 20 th centuries 22 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
23 Great Lakes Cyclones Conclusions (Cont.) Long-term increase in annual frequency based on station data Most significant increases observed during cold season, especially late Fall (Nov Dec) More analysis needed to be extend record (currently ends in 1990) Trends in Hs in North Atlantic Deep Water Buoys Suggest a Northward Shift in ETC activity Limited number of statistically significant trends in buoy data Decrease in # of events in Cape May record Increase in mean Hs and mean duration in Cape Cod record for the most extreme events (5.4 m threshold) Short record and data gaps preclude definitive verification Buoy records need to be re-checked for any instrumentation, processing or location changes Via R. Bouchard, NDBC (personal comm.) 23 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
24 Mahalo nui loa! 24 NOAA s National Climatic Data Center
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