City of San Diego Water Demand Forecast
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1 Presentation to Scripps Institute of Oceanography City of San Diego Water Demand Forecast Public Utilities Department Engineering Program Management Division Feryal Moshavegh, Associate Engineer Michael Voss, Assistant Engineer May 25, 2010
2 City of San Diego Population 1.3 million Service Area covers 403 square miles 2
3 San Diego s Water Treatment Plants
4 # ## # The Water System Includes: 28 Potable Water Reservoirs 47 Potable Water Pump Stations Miramar Water Treatment Plant Miles of Transmission Pipelines ,000 Miles of Distribution Pipelines Pressure Zones # # # #
5 Potable Water Model The detailed Water Model analyzes the entire water distribution system: 6,000 major valves 280,000 customer meter connections 667 pressure regulators Interface with GIS, CIS and SCADA systems On going calibration, updates from SCADA every 15 minutes
6 North City & South Bay Recycled Water System The Recycle Water Model consists of: 2 Reclamation Plants 94 miles of pipelines 404 customer meter connections 6 Pump Stations 5 Reservoirs 8 Pressure zones Interface with GIS, CIS & SCADA
7 Raw Water Model The Raw Water Model consists of: 40 miles of Pipelines 2 Pump Stations (Lakeside & El Monte) 3 Reservoirs (Murray, El Capitan, and San Vicente) CWA 1st Aqueduct connection Lakeside PS San Vicente Reservoir El Capitan Reservoir Lake Murray
8 The Year 2030 Master Plan Model Model is based on latest water demand projection report. It includes: Future growth (latest SANDAG release population & land use Water & Sewer Rate Conservation parameters Global Warming effects
9 How are the models used? Master Planning Operation support, system optimization, shutdown & backup studies New development, cast iron replacement group job studies Pressure zone studies & fire flow analysis Water quality analysis Water source contribution (tracer studies) Emergency planning and water security analysis Quality control check of GIS, CIS and SCADA data
10 Development of Water Demand Forecasts 10
11 Demand Forecast Report Objectives Demand Forecasts are used to: Plan for expansion of system capacity (sources of supply, transmission, treatment). Evaluate the effectiveness (or water savings) of alternative conservation measures Prepare contingency plans for water shortages caused by drought or source contamination Guide development (Urban Water Management Plan) 11
12 Data Used for Water Demand Forecast SANDAG 2050 Update, Series 12 Employment (totals & NAICS) SF and MF occupied households SF and MF housing density (computed from acreage) Median household income Marginal price of water & sewer Weather data historical observed Climate change scenarios Historical Water use data Customer billing information, premise code, and month Wholesale water use Percent NRW from annual report Conservation savings and future programs
13 Model Weather Variables Weather variables: Average maximum daily temperature Monthly total precipitation Number of rainy days in month One and two month lag effects for precipitation variables (varies by sector) Measured as departure from normal (average) weather
14 Global Climate Change Data Models provided by Scripps Two global climate models selected: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDLCM2) National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Coupled Model (NCARPCM) Data used: Monthly average maximum daily temperature Monthly total precipitation Number of days in each month with precipitation greater than 0.01 inches
15 Scripps Data Processed Data provided for a 200 x 200 km grid Grids selected that overlay with weather station data used to develop demand forecast model CDM calculated moving average of data to capture trends forecast model estimates demand in 5 year increments and single year climate change data not representative of trend Data then transformed to departure from historical average
16 Climate Grids for City of San Diego Service Area
17 Modeled Demand with Climate Change Calculated climate change departures in weather input into forecast model for future years Estimates a per unit use under the given scenario 2030 demands under GFDLCM2 conditions can increase by 4.5% from the average weather scenario
18 Comparison of Historical Average and Scripps Climate Change Models NCARPCM GFDLCM2 Historical Average No. Rainy Days Number of Rainy Days in Month
19 Comparison of Historical Average and Scripps Climate Change Models NCARPCM GFDLCM2 Historical Average Precipitation Monthly Precipitation
20 Comparison of Historical Average and Scripps Climate Change Models NCARPCM GFDLCM2 Historical Average Temperature Temperature
21 Historical Population and Water Demand
22 Comparison of Demand under Climate Change Scenarios (MGD)
23 Questions and Comments? Contact Information: Feryal Moshavegh (858) Michael Voss (858)
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