TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING REPORT

Transcription

1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING REPORT Prepared for: Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit District Prepared by: Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas, Inc.

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3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION Study Corridor MODEL BACKGROUND Modeling Process System-Wide Flow of Trips Traffic Analysis Zones Highway Network Transit Network Transit Network Development Transit Network Path-Building Modifications to the MTC/VTA Model Home-Based Work Modifications Non-Home-Based Work Modifications Walk Access Link Modifications DEMOGRAPHICS Population Employment STUDY ALTERNATIVES No-Build Alternative Express Bus Alternative SMART Passenger Rail Alternative: Cloverdale to Larkspur Local Shuttle System SMART Passenger Rail Alternative: Windsor to San Rafael Minimum Operable Segment (MOS) RESULTS Transit Travel Times System-Wide Transit Summary Daily Transit Trips Home-Based Work Transit Trips Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit i Travel Demand Forecasting Report

4 5.3 Express Bus Ridership Passenger Rail Ridership Daily Ridership Home-Based Work Ridership Peak Period Ridership Shuttle Bus Ridership Parking Demand Transit Trip Length Vehicle Miles Traveled and Vehicle Hours Traveled LIST OF FIGURES Figure Smart Corridor Study Area Figure Year 2025 Home Based Work Desire Lines Sonoma County Figure Year 2025 Home Based Work Desire Lines Desire Lines Marin County Figure Study Area Traffic Analysis Zones Figure Transit Support Node and Access Link Structure Figure Forecast Growth in Population by TAZ, Figure Forecast Growth in Employment by TAZ, Figure Express Bus Alternative - Location of Express Bus Service Stops Figure Express Bus Alternative - Location of Super Express Bus Service Stops Figure Location of Traffic Analysis Zones with High Population and Employment Figure Peak Period Ridership for Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative Figure Peak Period Ridership for Windsor to San Rafael Alternative LIST OF TABLES Table Flow of Home Based Work Trips from County to Super Districts in Year Table Forecast Growth in Population, Table Forecast Growth in Number of Households, Table Forecast Growth in Employment, Table Frequency Improvements to Bus Routes Table Passenger Rail Alternative - Passenger Rail Stations Table Passenger Rail Alternative - Station-to-Station Distance (Miles) Table Passenger Rail Alternative - Station-to-Station Travel Time (Minutes) Table Traffic Analysis Zones with Access to Parking at Stations Table High Population and Employment Traffic Analysis Zones Table Future Peak Period Transit Travel Times in Minutes Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit ii Travel Demand Forecasting Report

5 Table Forecast 2025 System-Wide Total Daily Transit Trips Comparison Table Forecast 2025 System-Wide Total Home-Based Work Transit Trips Comparison Table Total Daily Ridership for Express Bus Routes Table Total Home-Based Work Ridership for Express Bus Routes Table Total Daily Ridership for SMART Passenger Rail: Cloverdale to Larkspur Table Total Daily Ridership for SMART Passenger Rail: Windsor to San Rafael Table Total Home-Base Work Ridership for SMART Passenger Rail: Cloverdale to Larkspur Table Total Home-Base Work Ridership for SMART Passenger Rail: Windsor to San Rafael Table Daily 2025 Shuttle Bus Boarding for Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative Table Daily 2025 Shuttle Bus Boarding for Windsor to Rafael Alternative Table Parking Demand for Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative Table Parking Demand for Windsor to San Rafael Alternative Table Forecast Transit Trip Length for Build Alternatives Table VMT and VHT for Sonoma County and Marin County by Study Alternative APPENDIX A 2025 HOME BASED WORK TRIPS SONOMA COUNTY APPENDIX B 2025 HOME BASED WORK TRIPS MARIN COUNTY APPENDIX C STATION-TO-STATION FARE MATRIX Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit iii Travel Demand Forecasting Report

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7 1.0 INTRODUCTION The Sonoma Marin Area Rail Transit (SMART) Rail District is evaluating transportation improvements along the approximately 70-mile corridor extending from Cloverdale in Sonoma County, California to a ferry terminal located in Larkspur, Marin County, California. The corridor generally parallels Highway 101 running north-south in Sonoma and Marin counties along an existing railroad right-of-way. The objective of this SMART Travel Demand Forecasting report is to present travel demand modeling results for the alternatives analyzed as a part of the Draft Environmental Impact Report (DEIR) for the SMART project. A Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) will be prepared at a later date. The report presents the results of each alternative developed for the study based on anticipated demands for year The contents of this report include a description of the travel demand model used for the study, demographics of the study area, an overview of the study alternatives, and the travel demand forecast results for each alternative. 1.1 Study Corridor The Highway 101/SMART corridor encompasses Sonoma and Marin counties. Sonoma County is the northernmost county of the nine county San Francisco Bay Area region, and it is bordered by Napa County to the east, Mendocino County to the north, the San Pablo Bay and Marin County to the south, and the Pacific Ocean to the west. Marin County is located north of San Francisco County and is bordered by the San Francisco Bay to the east and the Pacific Ocean to the west. Highway 101, a fourlane facility serves as the lifeline for local and regional traffic and transit in the two counties as it is the only continuous north-south roadway. Figure illustrates the study corridor. The corridor extends from Asti Road in Cloverdale through central Sonoma County to the ferry terminal at Larkspur in east Marin County. This report defines the SMART Study Area as the area inclusive of Sonoma and Marin counties in their entirety and distinguishes the Highway 101/SMART corridor as the transit corridor adjacent to Highway 101 encompassed by the following incorporated local jurisdictions: Cloverdale, Healdsburg, Windsor, Santa Rosa, Rohnert Park, Cotati, Petaluma, Novato, San Rafael, and Larkspur. Ridership forecasts will be presented for other places in the study area served by the existing transit network. The Highway 101/SMART corridor is served by a network of bus routes operated by various public agencies. They include: Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District (GGBHTD) Sonoma County Transit District Marin County Transit District (Transit funding agency only) Santa Rosa CityBus Petaluma Transit Healdsburg In-City Travel times and delays on Highway 101 are expected to increase as a result of continuing population and employment growth in the region. High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes that were recently constructed provide some relief to certain high density segments of the highway. They include segments between San Rafael and Novato, and Wilfred Avenue (Rohnert Park) and Santa Rosa. As a part of future enhancements, new segments are identified for widening between Corte Madera and Windsor resulting in a seamless corridor of HOV lanes. In conjunction with these highway enhancements, the study analyzes alternate means of travel such as passenger rail and express-bus service between strategically located transit centers in the corridor. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 1 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

8 FIGURE SMART CORRIDOR STUDY AREA Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 2 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

9 2.0 MODEL BACKGROUND The model chosen for the SMART project was the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) regional model, which is an enhanced version of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) regional model in TP+/Viper software. BAYCAST-90, the MTC regional model, encompasses the ninecounty San Francisco Bay Area and is the model used to develop the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and prepare travel forecasts for major regional corridor studies. The MTC model was calibrated to the 1990 regional household survey and was re-validated by MTC to 1998 traffic counts and transit operator boardings as part of the 2001 update of the RTP. VTA enhanced the MTC regional model by estimating transit submode ridership in the home-based work mode choice models, recalibrating to a more recent year 2000 baseline and adding in an external transit mode choice model to estimate transit trips from outside the nine county region into the region. The nine counties are Sonoma, San Mateo, Contra Costa, Marin, Santa Clara, Solano, San Francisco, Alameda, and Napa. This model was chosen for the SMART project because it was recently recalibrated to base year 2000 conditions under guidance provided by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) and it was the best model available in the region at the time. The FTA model recalibration was a condition for using the VTA regional models for the FTA New Starts project planning efforts. To utilize the model for the SMART project only minor changes were necessary. The main changes were to the transit assumptions to reflect the differing transit levels of service by alternative. The remainder of this chapter briefly describes the general modeling process, the flow of work trips into and out of Sonoma and Marin counties based on the travel demand forecasting model, and the modifications and the major inputs to the travel forecasting model in terms of traffic analysis zones, highway network, and transit network. This section begins to set the stage for travel in the SMART corridor. 2.1 Modeling Process The VTA model estimates travel in four basic steps: Trip generation, Trip distribution, Mode choice, and Trip assignment The initial step, trip generation, geographically determines the amount of travel activity that the socioeconomic data will generate; i.e., employment centers versus residential neighborhoods. The second step, trip distribution, links and disperses the generated travel by identifying origin and destination pairs. Mode choice then evaluates the various transportation options available and disaggregates the total demand by travel mode. The final step, trip assignment, is where demand is assigned to the transportation system facilities and modes. The results of the trip generation and trip distribution steps (person trip tables) were obtained from a year 2025 model run, and were held constant for this project. The mode choice model is the integral link in the travel demand chain. Mode choice models are mathematical expressions used to estimate the share of travel on each available mode given its time and cost characteristics, and the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of trip makers. The development of future year 2025 forecasts for the proposed transit improvements in the SMART Corridor relies primarily upon a nested logit mode choice model. The mathematics behind the mode Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 3 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

10 choice model considers projected levels in 2025 for all key variables that influence travel demand. These variable considerations include population, households, employment, income, and auto ownership, as well as highway network characteristics (i.e. link capacities and speeds, centroid characteristics, and HOV facilities) and transit system characteristics (i.e. bus and rail routes, stations, and frequency). These major inputs into the travel demand model are discussed in the following sections and chapters. 2.2 System-Wide Flow of Trips The Year 2025 trip tables for the study area were held constant; therefore the origins and destinations of the trips remain constant across alternatives. This section describes the major trip movements for the home-based work (HBW) trips related to the SMART study area. As mentioned, the model is comprised of nine counties. These counties are further divided into 34 superdistricts. The six superdistricts corresponding to Sonoma and Marin were combined to represent each county. To understand systemwide HBW trip movement, desire lines were created between each county in the SMART study area to every super-district in the remaining counties. Figures and display Year 2025 desire lines representing two-way flow of HBW person trips for Sonoma County and Marin County, respectively. The blue lines indicate trip productions while the green lines indicate trip attractions. The tables of total home-based work person trips between superdistricts, which were used to create these desire lines for each SMART county, are displayed in Appendix A and Appendix B. Figure shows the flows to and from Sonoma County (Superdistricts 29) in The main flow of HBW trips is to/from Marin County, followed by flows to San Francisco (Superdistrict 1), and from Napa (Superdistrict 27). Figure shows the 2025 flows to and from Marin County (Superdistrict 32) in The major flow of trips is to San Francisco (Superdistrict 1), followed by major flows to and from Sonoma County (Superdistricts 29 and 30). Table is a subset of the super-district to super-district table which focuses on 2025 trips associated with the SMART corridor going to/from the other super-districts. As shown in Table 2.2-1, 446,000 work trips originate in Sonoma County of which over 365,000 trips (or 82 percent) remain inside the county, the next highest area for Sonoma County work trip destinations is Marin County (Superdistricts 30-32) with nearly 40,000 daily trips, followed by San Francisco (Superdistrict 1) with approximately 12,000 daily trips. The super district with the most work trips destined to Sonoma County is from Napa County (Superdistrict 27), with over 14,000 daily trips. It is followed by Marin County, Superdistricts 30 and 31, which produces a combined flow of about 17,000 daily trips destined to Sonoma County. As observed in Table 2.2-1, like Sonoma County the majority of work trips remain inside the county of origin, Marin, which generates over 125,000 daily trips. However, from Marin approximately 55,000 (22 percent) of work trips are attracted into San Francisco Superdistrict 1, and approximately nine percent travel to Sonoma County Superdistricts It is evident from the desire lines that the majority of the HBW trips in the study area remains within the origin County or travel to the other County. This, coupled with the congestion on Highway 101, suggest a need for travel within and between the counties. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 4 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

11 FIGURE YEAR 2025 HOME-BASED WORK TRIP DESIRE LINES SONOMA COUNTY Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 5 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

12 FIGURE YEAR 2025 HOME-BASED WORK TRIP DESIRE LINES MARIN COUNTY Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 6 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

13 TABLE FLOW OF HOME-BASED WORK TRIPS FROM COUNTY TO SUPER DISTRICTS IN YEAR 2025 County District From Sonoma To Sonoma County District From Marin To Marin 1 12, ,098 1,710 San 2 2,805 1,888 San 2 6,404 4,315 Francisco 3 2, Francisco 3 8,478 3, ,767 1, , ,383 3,455 San Mateo 6 1, San Mateo 6 1,139 1, , , Santa Clara Santa Clara ,096 Alameda Alameda 17 1,808 1, ,974 2, ,917 6, , ,325 4, ,627 2, ,111 11, , ,562 Contra Contra ,263 1,000 Costa Costa , , ,046 Solano Napa , ,325 Solano 26 1,139 3, , ,550 14, ,143 Napa 28 3,006 2, Sonoma , ,286 25, ,042 9,061 Sonoma 30 8,449 11,792 Marin 31 13,720 8, , ,208 3,909 Marin ,147 Total Sonoma Trips 446, ,229 Total Marin Trips 246, ,749 Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff 2.3 Traffic Analysis Zones Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) are building blocks of travel demand models. They represent geographic areas in the model from which and to which trips are allocated. A particular level of geography can be designated as a TAZ and is typically based on using Census geography. Census geography is classified into blocks, block groups, tracts, and counties. The model was based on 1990 Census geography and the level of geography used was Census tracts. The same level of geography is retained in the SMART model to maintain consistency with the original structure. The entire model is comprised of 1,199 internal TAZs and 21 external TAZs. However, the study area is comprised of 108 internal traffic analysis zones. Figure illustrates the TAZs in each study county. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 7 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

14 FIGURE STUDY AREA TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES Source: MTC, 2003 The zonal data include a number of attributes that represent different characteristics of the geographic area. The main attributes defined are: Population Households Auto Ownership Area in Acres Retail Employment Non-Retail Employment Mean Household Income Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 8 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

15 2.4 Highway Network Highway supply characteristics required by the travel forecasting procedures include estimation of the highway network facilities, highway level of service (i.e., travel speed or time), HOV and toll designations, and auto operating costs. The model provided the highway networks for use on the SMART project. The networks were checked for connectivity and enhanced as necessary to provide slightly more detail in the study area. Minor enhancements were made which included adding new streets and reconnecting centroid connectors. HOV lanes were added in some portions of Sonoma and Marin counties resulting in a continuous set of HOV lanes on Highway 101 from Corte Madera to Windsor. The future year 2025 highway network was used as an underlying network to develop transit networks for alternatives in this study. This highway network remained constant for all alternatives. 2.5 Transit Network A reflection of the level of service experienced by a potential transit user is constructed through development of a computerized network representation of the system of routes and service levels existing in the region. This computer-coded transit network must be an accurate representation of the individual bus routes, fixed guide-way lines, headways, and travel times that define transit service. Consistency in representation methods across all alternatives is essential to ensure that differences in travel times between those alternatives are accurate portrayals of service level differences and not simply differences in coding conventions. Since level of service varies throughout the day, transit networks are constructed for both a peak period and a base or off-peak period. This allows the networks to capture such nuances as express or commuter routes that do not provide off-peak service or routes that offer different service frequencies at different times of the day. An extensive network of bus routes, light rail, and passenger rail exists in the Bay area. The model incorporates the entire transit system that is expected to be in place by 2025 in the RTP network, including the route systems in Sonoma and Marin counties. This network was the starting point for developing the transit networks for the SMART project. These transit networks were developed based on using the future highway network as the underlying highway network. Four transit networks were created. They are defined in detail in the alternatives definition chapter but in general are as follows: 1. No-Build 2. Express Bus 3. SMART Passenger Rail Alternative: Cloverdale to Larkspur 4. SMART Passenger Rail Alternative: Windsor to San Rafael (Minimum Operable Segment) Transit Network Development Transit networks were developed for each alternative based on procedures from the BAYCAST model. For example, Figure illustrates the different types of access links and transit support nodes created by the SMART model for a passenger rail station. The different geometric shapes represent transit support nodes and the dashed lines represent transit access links generated by the model. The access links are distinguished by origin and destination ends and are classified as: Mode 1 Walk Access Connector (Traffic Analysis Zone to Funnel Node) Mode 2 Drive Access Connector (Traffic Analysis Zone to Park-and-Ride Facility) Mode 3 Transfer Connector (Bus Stop to Rail Station) Mode 4 Drive Access Walk Funnel Link (Park-and-Ride Facility to Rail Station) Mode 5 Walk Access Walk Funnel Link (Funnel Node to Rail Station) Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 9 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

16 FIGURE TRANSIT SUPPORT NODE AND ACCESS LINK STRUCTURE Rail Tracks MODE 3 MODE 5 Rail Station MODE 4 Bus Stop Funnel Node Park N Ride Lot MODE 2 Local Street MODE 1 Traffic Analysis Zone Highway Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff The access links are generated for every transit route in the transit system. Each transit route is a computerized representation of the transit route through nodes that traverse the highway network specifying where the route stops allowing travelers to get on or off the route. Additionally, the route coding includes the frequency by time of day. The model creates an AM peak period network and a Midday off-peak period network. The transit network development process also involved developing station-to-station fares, locating parkand-ride facilities near station stops, and designating traffic analysis zones that fall in the catchment area of these park-and-ride facilities. The catchment area for each park-and-ride facility encompassed zones that are within a maximum distance of seven miles. Transit station-to-station fares for the SMART model were estimated based on assuming a maximum fare of $5.00 in 1990 US dollars for the 70-mile long passenger rail. A fare matrix was created based on distance between stations. Appendix C presents the fare matrix prepared for the full length passenger rail alternative Transit Network Path-Building Transit paths were built and checked for accuracy using the transit networks developed following the procedures discussed in the preceding section. The paths were checked by producing interzonal transit paths on a select set of traffic analysis zones. The inputs to path-building included background highway network, transit route files, transit station-to-station fares, mode-to-mode transfer fares, supplementary link files, and access information. Three sets of transit paths were produced by the model: 1. AM Peak Period Best Paths 2. AM Peak Period Walk-only Paths 3. Midday Walk-only paths. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 10 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

17 In the AM peak period best paths, walk access to transit competes with auto access to transit to produce the best paths. AM peak walk-only paths and midday walk-only paths produces walk access paths to transit. 2.6 Modifications to the MTC/VTA Model This section presents modifications made to the MTC/VTA travel demand model for the SMART EIR. Specific changes were made to the mode choice portion of the model to improve its ability to estimate rail travel. Each modification was made with the intent of improving the model s ability to replicate data observed in the region of interest (the San Francisco Bay Area). Observed data/behavior was obtained from the Caltrain On-Board Survey used to calibrate the model (Caltrain, 2003).The approach first introduced a new variable to the mode choice model, and the coefficient acting on the new variable was then calibrated using observed data. The changes are discussed in two sections below: for the homebased work trip purpose and the other trip purposes Home-Based Work Modifications The home-based work mode choice model includes walk-to-transit modes segmented by service type (i.e. walk to passenger rail) and generic auto access modes (i.e. drive-to-transit; where transit could be passenger rail, light rail, local bus, and so on). The modifications to the model are discussed separately for each of these access types below. Walk-access to Passenger Rail: The segmentation of transit modes in the walk access nest allowed for the introduction of passenger-rail specific coefficients. One shortcoming of the mode choice model is the lack of a penalty applied to bus-to-rail or rail-to-bus transfers. In the calibration year, this shortcoming caused an overestimation of transfer trips (a Caltrain on-board survey observed a transfer rate near 50% versus an estimated rate near 86%). To alleviate this problem, a variable to capture the number of transfers was introduced to the model and a coefficient was calibrated to allow the estimated transfer rate to more closely match the observed transfer rate. The final calibrated value for this coefficient was , which corresponds to 70 equivalent minutes of in-vehicle travel time. Drive-access to Transit: Transit modes in the drive access nest (park and ride and kiss and ride) are treated as generic. As such, variables specific to the passenger rail choice are introduced conditionally only if a passenger rail in-vehicle time is present in the input skim matrices (new drive access to passenger rail skims were produced for the SMART project and the mode choice source code was modified to accept the new skims). Three variables specific to the drive-to-passenger rail mode were introduced, namely: transfers (same as the walk access), a ratio of the drive access to passenger rail invehicle time, and an alternative specific constant. The transfer variable behaves similar to the walk-access mode, discussed previously. Again, this variable was calibrated to match the observed transfer rate. The final calibrated coefficient is , which translates to 86 equivalent in-vehicle minutes. The travel time ratio variable computes the ratio of the drive access time to the passenger rail invehicle time. Such a variable has been shown to be an important determinant of passenger rail choice in places such as San Diego. The coefficient on this variable was calibrated to approximately match the observed ratio in the San Diego Region. The final coefficient is (20 minutes of in-vehicle time). The introduction of negative utilities based on transfers and the travel time ratio causes the passenger rail portion of the drive-access to transit mode to lose market share. To regain this share, an alternative specific constant is introduced specific to the drive to passenger rail mode (again, the input skim is used to determine when this constant should be applied). The final value of this coefficient is , which translates to 20 equivalent in-vehicle minutes. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 11 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

18 2.6.2 Non-Home-Based Work Modifications Modifications made to the non-home-based work trip purposes include only a transfer penalty, similar to the home-based work modifications. Due to the difficulty of compiling and modifying the mode choice source code for these purposes, the penalty was introduced as a time penalty in the input skim matrices instead of coefficients in the source code. The resulting impact on the choice of mode is identical. The penalties were only introduced when a passenger rail travel time was present. The final calibrated penalty for the walk access transfer trips was 60 minutes and 75 minutes for the drive access trips Walk Access Link Modifications In addition to the above noted modifications to the mode choice model, the project team also made some modifications to the walk access links. The walk links were recoded to better reflect the location of actual development relative to proposed rail stations. The modifications included shortening walk distances between several TAZ centroids and the associated rail stations and adding additional walk access links to connect additional TAZs to the rail stations. The main focus was at the Marin County Civic Center Station and Larkspur Station. At the Civic Center station three walk links were modified, TAZ 1063 was shortened from 0.8 of a mile to 0.4 of a mile, and TAZs 1061 and 1062 were added with a 0.6 mile access link and 0.35 mile access link respectively. Neither TAZ 1061 nor 1062 were originally included in the model, both TAZ centroids were over a mile from the rail station. At the Larkspur station the walk access link from TAZ 1081 was also shortened from over one mile to a half of a mile. Additionally, another walk link was added to the North Novato station from TAZ All walk links have an average speed of three miles per hour in the travel forecasting model. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 12 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

19 3.0 DEMOGRAPHICS Population and employment are two major components in forecasting travel demand. Fluctuation in these components over a period of time and across geographic areas invariably impact transportation facilities giving rise to increased congestion, traffic delays, and higher transit ridership. This chapter highlights the changes in demographics and employment estimates in the study area for the base year (2000) and the future year (2025). 3.1 Population Population data was obtained from the MTC regional model, which was based on information from the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). Although this information was developed before the 2000 US Census data were released, the estimates are very close to each other. ABAG did a special set of forecasts that extended the horizon year of Projections 2000 from 2020 to Based on MTC forecasts, the 2025 population for Sonoma County is projected to increase to approximately 591,600 persons, reflecting a growth of almost 30 percent. Marin County is projected to increase to approximately 278,400 persons, showing a nominal growth of 11.2 percent. The growth is expected to increase overcrowding in residential areas in the study area causing increased congestion on Highway 101 and affecting other transportation facilities. Tables and present the change in population and the number of households between the study years. TABLE FORECAST GROWTH IN POPULATION, County Growth % Growth Sonoma 455, , , % Marin 250, ,401 27, % Study Area 705, , , % Source: ABAG Projections 2000 and MTC TABLE FORECAST GROWTH IN NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS, County Growth % Growth Sonoma 171, ,789 51, % Marin 99, ,631 14, % Study Area 271, ,420 65, % Source: ABAG Projections 2000 and MTC Figure presents graphical illustrations of growth in population in Sonoma and Marin counties from 2000 to It is observed from the figure that areas located adjacent to the corridor report a higher growth in population than the areas further from the corridor. The higher population growth zones near the corridor are mainly comprised of cities and towns such as Windsor, Santa Rosa, Rohnert Park, Cotati, Petaluma, and Novato. Novato is projected to have the highest population growth of 95.8 percent. The dark shades in the figure represent zones with population growth ranging from approximately 61 percent to 100 percent and are located primarily to the east of the SMART corridor. As expected, the growth in households is similar to the growth in population. The study area is projected to grow by over 65,000 additional households by Sonoma County is projected to increase by approximately 51,000 households, or nearly 30 percent, and Marin County is projected to increase by approximately 14,000 households, or about 14 percent. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 13 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

20 FIGURE FORECAST GROWTH IN POPULATION BY TAZ, Source: ABAG/MTC & Parsons Brinckerhoff, 2000 Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 14 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

21 3.2 Employment Table reports employment estimates for Sonoma and Marin counties by retail and non-retail categories. Between 2000 and 2025, Sonoma County is projected to have significant growth in nonretail employment of 63 percent compared with a growth of 28.2 percent in Marin County. The number of jobs in retail employment is expected to increase at a lower rate of 33 percent and 18 percent in Sonoma and Marin County respectively. Overall employment growth, however, is estimated to grow considerably at 47.6 percent for the entire study area. TABLE FORECAST GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT, County Growth % Growth Non-Retail Employment Sonoma 366, , , % Marin 220, ,488 62, % Study Area 587, , , % Retail Employment Sonoma 40,080 53,301 13, % Marin 26,670 31,498 4, % Study Area 66,750 84,799 18, % Total Employment Sonoma 407, , , % Marin 247, ,986 66, % Study Area 654, , , % Source: ABAG Projections 2000 and MTC Figure illustrates growth in total employment for the zones in the study area. It is observed from the figure that employment will continue to grow near the corridor especially in areas such as Healdsburg, Windsor, Petaluma, and Novato. The growth of employment near the corridor is higher compared with the growth of population. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 15 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

22 FIGURE FORECAST GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT BY TAZ, Source: ABAG/MTC & Parsons Brinckerhoff, 2000 Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 16 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

23 4.0 STUDY ALTERNATIVES As a part of the environmental analysis process for the Highway 101/SMART corridor, four alternatives were developed. The Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS)/Draft Environmental Impact Report (DEIR) can be referred to for a detailed description of each alternative. This chapter provides a general description of the alternatives and a more detailed review of how the alternatives were created for forecasting travel demand. 4.1 No-Build Alternative The No-Build Alternative provided an initial platform for applying the SMART model and analyzing the transportation impacts of other alternatives. The alternative consists of physical characteristics of roadway that existed in 2000 and additional projects as identified in the MTC 2025 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) for the San Francisco Bay Area, and amended in November In the study area, these future projects mainly include HOV widening projects on Highway 101 at the following locations: Marin County Gap Closure: Lucky Drive to North San Pedro Road Marin-Sonoma Narrows: Route 37 to Petaluma Old Redwood Highway to Rohnert Park Expressway Rohnert Park Expressway to Wilfred Highway Highway 12 to Steele Lane Steele Lane to Windsor River Road In the existing condition, transit stops or bus pads are located along Highway 101 in the general purpose lanes. These bus pads are accessible only to bus routes operating in the corridor. In the model, the routes using HOV lanes are coded to change lanes to the general purpose lanes to stop at the bus pad. A total of fifteen bus pads currently exist on Highway 101. They include: Rohnert Park Expressway (Rohnert Park) San Marin Drive/Atherton Avenue (Novato) Alameda del Prado (Novato) Ignacio Blvd (Novato) Rowland Blvd (Novato) DeLong Avenue (Novato) Miller Creek Road (Marinwood) Freitas Parkway Terra Linda (San Rafael) North San Pedro Road (San Rafael) Lucas Valley Road (San Rafael) Paradise Drive and Tamalpais Drive (Corte Madera) Seminary Drive (Mill Valley) Tiburon Blvd and Blythdale Blvd (Mill Valley) Lucky Drive (Larkspur) Spencer Avenue (Sausalito) Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 17 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

24 The No-Build Alternative future scenario was designed to reflect 2001 bus service levels in the study area. The following express routes are included in the No-Build Alternative (refer to Appendix D for a complete list of all routes in the corridor): 80_GG2 80_GG18 80_GG24B 80_GG34 80_GG50A 80_GG70A 80_GG80A 80_GG4 80_GG20A 80_GG26 80_GG38 80_GG50B 80_GG72 80_GG80B 80_GG8 80_GG20B 80_GG28 80_GG44 80_GG54 80_GG74 80_GG93 80_GG10 80_GG24A 80_GG32 80_GG48 80_GG56 80_GG76 80_GG Express Bus Alternative The Express Bus Alternative includes two main components, increased frequencies and additional routes. A 15 percent increase in frequency was incorporated in the model by modifying the headways on several bus routes. Table presents peak and off-peak frequencies on these routes. The No-Build frequencies are indicated in parentheses. Bus Route TABLE FREQUENCY IMPROVEMENTS TO BUS ROUTES Peak Headway Off-Peak Headway Bus Route Peak Headway Off-Peak Headway Sonoma Local_14RPL 30 (70) 60 (90) Sonoma Intercity_48NBL 60 (80) 90 (100) Sonoma Intercity_20MRL 30 (60) 90 (90) Sonoma Intercity_60HXS 45 (100) - Sonoma Intercity_20MRL- 30 (60) 90 (90) Santa Rosa CityBus_4 30 (60) 60 (60) Sonoma Intercity_26WB 60 (100) 90 (100) Golden Gate_GG24A 45 (100) - Sonoma Intercity_30NBX 30 (100) - Golden Gate_GG72 12 (15) - Sonoma Intercity_30SBL 60 (80) 90 (100) Golden Gate_GG74 12 (18) - Sonoma Intercity_34SNV- 60 (100) - Golden Gate _GG80A 30 (30) 24 (30) Sonoma Intercity_40WBL 60 (90) 90 (100) Golden Gate _GG80B 20 (30) 24 (30) Sonoma Intercity_44NBL 30 (75) 40 (100) Golden Gate _GG1 15 (30) 30 (30) Sonoma Intercity_44SBL 30 (60) 40 (100) Golden Gate _GG1-15 (30) 30 (30) Sonoma Intercity_46SSUX 60 (100) 90 (100) Golden Gate _GG75 24 (40) - Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff The Express Bus Alternative also included several key improvements to inter-county bus services. Fourteen new bus routes were defined as a part of this alternative 12 area-to-area passenger lines and two express bus lines. In the travel forecasting model these routes were coded as Golden Gate Transit for convenience as it is acknowledged that a decision on the transit operator has not been made. They are designated GG_80_101 through GG_80_114 and are listed below: 1. North Santa Rosa to Novato: GG_80_ East Santa Rosa to Novato: GG_80_ North Santa Rosa to Terra Linda: GG_80_ East Santa Rosa to Terra Linda: GG_80_ North Santa Rosa to San Rafael: GG_80_105 Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 18 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

25 6. East Santa Rosa to San Rafael: GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Novato (via Highway 101): GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Novato (via Sonoma Mountain Parkway): GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Terra Linda (via Highway 101): GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Terra Linda (via Sonoma Mountain Parkway): GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to San Rafael (via Highway 101) : GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to San Rafael (via Sonoma Mountain Parkway): GG_80_ Express Bus: GG_80_ Super Express Bus: GG_80_114 The twelve area-to-area passenger routes provide direct connection between residential areas and employment centers in the peak direction. These point-to-point long distance lines utilize the continuous set of HOV lanes on Highway 101 and supplement San Francisco bound bus services operated by Golden Gate Transit (GGT). The passenger routes have 60 minute headways per peak period in the peak direction (southbound in the morning and northbound in the afternoon), for a total of 24 round trips per weekday. The Express Bus Route service (a modification of the existing Golden Gate Transit Route 80), stops at many freeway bus pads and off-freeway transit centers along Highway 101 between Cloverdale and the Larkspur water transit terminal. To accommodate stops at most of the freeway bus pads on Highway 101, the express bus service travels primarily in mixed flow lanes rather than in the HOV lanes. This route runs in the peak period and has a frequency of 120 minutes. Figure illustrates the Express Bus stops along Highway-101. The Super Express Bus Route service, between Cloverdale and the Larkspur water transit terminal, stops at four bus pads and four off-freeway transit centers effectively utilizing the Highway 101 HOV lanes to reduced travel times. The frequency on this route is 120 minutes during the peak period. Figure illustrates the Super Express Bus stops along Highway-101. The Express Bus alternative also includes physical and service improvements. Two new freeway bus pads are proposed near Highway 101/Steele Lane interchange in Santa Rosa and Highway 101/State Route 116 (Gravenstein Highway) interchange in Cotati. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 19 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

26 FIGURE EXPRESS BUS ALTERNATIVE LOCATION OF EXPRESS BUS SERVICE STOPS Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 20 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

27 FIGURE EXPRESS BUS ALTERNATIVE LOCATION OF SUPER-EXPRESS BUS SERVICE STOPS Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 21 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

28 4.3 SMART Passenger Rail Alternative: Cloverdale to Larkspur This alternative provides passenger rail service along approximately 70 miles of the SMART corridor from Cloverdale in Sonoma County to the Larkspur water transit terminal in Marin County. In addition a 15 percent increase in frequency on several bus routes as mentioned in Section 4.2 was also incorporated in this alternative. The passenger rail serves 14 stations at the locations shown in Table The rail service has a frequency of approximately 30 minutes in both southbound and northbound directions in the peak period and two trains during mid-day. The end to end travel time on the rail line is approximately 93 minutes, with an average speed of about 46 mph. Table displays station-tostation distance in miles and Table displays station-to-station travel times in minutes. Ridership forecasts for this particular rail alternative were developed for the Year With the exception of Downtown Santa Rosa, Downtown San Rafael, and Larkspur stations parking is provided at all the remaining rail stations. A limited number of park-and-ride (PNR) spaces are accommodated at the Downtown Petaluma station. Table lists the traffic analysis zones input to the model which have the most likelihood of using a PNR facility available at a station. TABLE PASSENGER RAIL ALTERNATIVE - PASSENGER RAIL STATIONS Rail Station Location 1. Cloverdale Asti Road south of Citrus Fair Drive 2. Healdsburg Historic Depot at Harmon Street 3. Windsor Windsor Road and Windsor River Road 4. Santa Rosa / Jennings Ave Jennings Avenue and Range Avenue 5. Downtown Santa Rosa Historic Depot at Railroad Square 6. Rohnert Park North of Golf Course Drive at Roberts Lake Road 7. Cotati Cotati Avenue and Industrial Road 8. Petaluma / Corona Road Corona Road and McDowell Boulevard 9. Downtown Petaluma Historic Depot at Lakeville Highway and E. Washington Street 10. North Novato Redwood Boulevard and Atherton Avenue 11. South Novato Ignacio Avenue and Highway 101 Interchange 12. Marin County Civic Center Civic Center Drive and McInnis Parkway 13. Downtown San Rafael Tamalpais Avenue between Third and Fourth Streets 14. Larkspur NWP Right-of-way west of Marin Airporter Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff, Community Design + Architecture, Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 22 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

29 TABLE PASSENGER RAIL ALTERNATIVE - STATION-TO-STATION DISTANCE (MILES) Station Cloverdale Healdsburg Windsor Santa Rosa Jennings Av. Downtown Santa Rosa Rohnert Park Cotati Petaluma - Corona Road Downtown Petaluma N. Novato S. Novato Marin County Civic Center San Rafael Larkspur Cloverdale Healdsburg Windsor Santa Rosa - Jennings Av Downtown Santa Rosa Rohnert Park Cotati Petaluma - Corona Road Downtown Petaluma N. Novato S. Novato Marin County Civic Center San Rafael Larkspur Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff TABLE PASSENGER RAIL ALTERNATIVE - STATION-TO-STATION TRAVEL TIMES (MINUTES) Station Cloverdale Healdsburg Windsor Santa Rosa Jennings Av. Downtown Santa Rosa Rohnert Park Cotati Petaluma - Corona Road Downtown Petaluma N. Novato S. Novato Marin County Civic Center San Rafael Larkspur Cloverdale Healdsburg Windsor Santa Rosa - Jennings Av Downtown Santa Rosa Rohnert Park Cotati Petaluma - Corona Road Downtown Petaluma N. Novato S. Novato Marin County Civic Center San Rafael Larkspur Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 23 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

30 TABLE TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES WITH ACCESS TO STATION PARKING Rail Station Traffic Analysis Zones 1. Cloverdale 1046, Healdsburg Windsor 1040, 1041, Santa Rosa / Jennings Ave 1014, , , Downtown Santa Rosa - 6. Rohnert Park 1006, 1009, 1010, 1012, 1013, , Cotati 1007, 1008, Petaluma / Corona Road , 1000, 1004, Downtown Petaluma North Novato South Novato Marin County Civic Center 1060, 1061, , Downtown San Rafael Larkspur - Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff Local Shuttle System A local shuttle bus system is designed to distribute passengers at the work-end (i.e., non-home end) of their trip. However, the shuttles are also used as a means of access to the rail stations. A total of nine shuttle routes are proposed to serve the passenger rail stations in Downtown San Rafael, North Novato, South Novato, and Larkspur. These shuttles cater to the local populace living near a station but are primarily designed to serve the work end of the trip. The shuttles are free to passengers, and operate during the same hours as the passenger rail in the morning and afternoon peak commute periods. During the morning peak period the shuttles operate at six minutes headway and during the afternoon peak period they operate at 10 minutes headway. A key feature of the shuttle system is to provide dedicated service to the passenger rail, allowing for a shorter timed-transfer connection between rail and bus services. For example, once all passengers from a given train have completed transferring to the bus, the bus departs the station. This allows an average transfer time of three minutes between passenger rail and shuttle. If a train is delayed, the shuttle waits for passengers from its subsequent arrival. This is an important benefit because it removes the uncertainty of waiting time associated with traditional bus-rail transfers. Shuttles are scheduled to coincide with passenger rail timings traveling in the peak direction: southbound trains in the morning peak and northbound trains in the evening peak. Passengers traveling in the reverse peak direction may use shuttles but will experience a longer wait for a train. The routes are designed to permit a complete one-way loop in less than the headway of the train (i.e., less than 30 minutes). This maximizes the efficiency of the service and minimizes out-of-direction travel for passengers. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 24 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

31 4.4 SMART Passenger Rail Alternative: Windsor to San Rafael Minimum Operable Segment (MOS) This passenger rail alternative referred to as the Minimum Operable Segment (MOS) provides passenger rail service in the SMART corridor from Windsor Station to the San Rafael Downtown Station. It has a similar operating plan as the Cloverdale to Larkspur passenger rail alternative including the 15 percent increase in frequency on several bus routes indicated in Section 4.2. However, the alignment is shorter, extending approximately 49 miles rather than 70 miles, and is less expensive to implement due to its shorter length. The end to end travel time on this rail line is approximately 61 minutes, with an average speed of about 48 mph. The rail stations on this segment are identical to the full passenger rail alternative except it only includes those stations between Windsor and San Rafael with the same parkand-ride facilities. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 25 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

32 5.0 RESULTS This section discusses the travel forecasting results for the Year Specifically, this section examines sample transit travel times for each alternative, system-wide transit summaries for daily and home-based work (HBW) trips, ridership for express bus and local shuttle routes, as well as station by station rail boardings. 5.1 Transit Travel Times Transit travel times were estimated between strategically located traffic analysis zones (TAZs) in the Highway 101/SMART corridor for each alternative. The zones were selected based on having the highest population and employment concentrations in the corridor. Table presents total population and total employment for these TAZs. TABLE HIGH POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES IN 2025 TAZ City/Town Population Employment 997 Petaluma 20,901 27, Cotati 28,421 30, Santa Rosa 17,622 30, Windsor 45,413 9, Novato 11,574 21, San Rafael 10,124 23, Rohnert Park 10,063 31, Santa Rosa 14,257 36, Santa Rosa 2,256 36, Santa Rosa 3,570 39, Santa Rosa 12,219 30, Novato 11,574 21, San Rafael 5,331 20, San Rafael 10,124 23,362 Source: ABAG/MTC, 2000 In the above table, the first six zones represent high population zones while the remaining eight zones represent high employment zones. Travel times between these two sets of zone-interchanges were estimated for each transit alternative and are shown in Table The estimated travel times are the total travel time from TAZ to TAZ, including initial wait times at a bus stop or a rail station, all transfer times from one mode to another mode, the in-vehicle travel time (IVTT), and the access and egress time. In addition, the travel times indicate the best available transit paths between zones and are representative of a combination of different modes of travel. Figure illustrates locations of the TAZs shown in the above table. The estimates indicate that travel times between zone-interchanges located at a longer distance are lower in each alternative compared to the No-Build Alternative. As an example, the distance between TAZ 1041 in Windsor and TAZ 1052 in Novato is approximately 38 miles and it takes 30 minutes less to travel by express bus or passenger rail than in the No-Build transit services. The Express Bus and the rail alternatives primarily provide point-to-point service to long distance travel and require fewer stops and transfers. These alternatives result in faster travel times compared to the No-Build, with possible savings in travel times of up to an hour. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 26 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

33 No-Build TABLE FUTURE PEAK PERIOD TRANSIT TRAVEL TIMES IN MINUTES TAZ CITY Rohnert Park Santa Rosa Novato San Rafael 997 Petaluma Cotati Santa Rosa Windsor Novato San Rafael Express Bus TAZ CITY Rohnert Park Santa Rosa Novato San Rafael 997 Petaluma Cotati Santa Rosa Windsor Novato San Rafael Commuter Rail from Cloverdale to Larkspur TAZ CITY Rohnert Park Santa Rosa Novato San Rafael 997 Petaluma Cotati Santa Rosa Windsor Novato San Rafael Commuter Rail from Windsor to San Rafael (MOS) TAZ CITY Rohnert Park Santa Rosa Novato San Rafael 997 Petaluma Cotati Santa Rosa Windsor Novato San Rafael Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 27 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

34 FIGURE LOCATION OF TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES WITH HIGH POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 28 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

35 5.2 System-Wide Transit Summary Daily Transit Trips Table presents a summary of system-wide daily transit trips for each alternative and compares to the No-Build transit trips in the study area. In addition to the new SMART services, the daily transit trips include transit trips by various sub-modes operating in the Bay Area including bus routes (local, express), light rail transit (VTA, MUNI), heavy rail (BART), commuter rail (AMTRAK, Caltrain), and water transit services. TABLE FORECAST 2025 SYSTEM-WIDE TOTAL DAILY TRANSIT TRIP COMPARISON Alternative Trips within and between Sonoma and Marin Counties Trips between Sonoma and Marin Counties and other 7 Bay Area counties No-Build Daily Trips 46,699 55,119 Express Bus SMART Passenger Rail: Cloverdale to Larkspur SMART Passenger Rail: Windsor to San Rafael MOS Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff Daily Trips 46,965 56,896 Difference from No-Build 266 1,777 % Change 0.57% 3.22% Daily Trips 52,534 63,483 Difference from No-Build 5,835 8,364 % Change 12.49% 15.17% Daily Trips 52,702 63,395 Difference from No-Build 6,003 8,276 % Change 12.85% 15.01% On a daily basis by 2025, it is estimated there will be over 55,000 trips within and between Sonoma and Marin counties. In addition, it is estimated there will be another 46,000 or more daily transit trips, which either begin or end in Sonoma or Marin counties. As existing services are improved or new service is added to the corridor, transit travel within the corridor is projected to increase. As seen in the table, the passenger rail alternatives are projected to attract more transit trips within the study area than the Express Bus Alternative. The two passenger rail alternatives are forecast to attract more than 8,000 daily trips within and between Sonoma and Marin counties, projecting an increase of 15 percent over the No-Build Alternative. In comparison to the No-Build transit forecasts, each of the three Build alternatives is projected to attract a considerable number of trips traveling in the Highway 101/SMART corridor, ranging from approximately three percent to 15 percent. The transit trip movement between the study area and the remainder of the Bay Area is projected to increase by less than one percent for the Express Bus alternative and nearly 13 percent for the passenger rail alternatives Home-Based Work Transit Trips Table displays system-wide home-based work (HBW) transit trips for each of the alternatives, and compares them to the No-Build HBW transit trips. HBW transit trips constitute an average of approximately 31 percent of the total system-wide transit trips in each alternative (Total 9-County Trips in Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 29 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

36 Table vs. Table 5.2-2). However, when comparing the system-wide versus HBW trips occurring between Sonoma and Marin counties and the other seven Bay Area counties the percentage is much greater - approximately 75 percent. This indicates the majority of transit trips with one end in the study area are work trips. It is estimated there will be over 13,000 daily work trips within and between Sonoma and Marin counties in 2025, and approximately 41,000 work trips between the study area counties and the seven Bay Area counties in The number of transit trips increases as more transit service is added to the corridor. The system-wide change in 2025 home-based work trips compared to the No-Build trips is projected to range from an increase of 970 trips to approximately 4,000 trips within and between Sonoma and Marin counties. The SMART passenger rail service between Cloverdale and Larkspur, combined with other transit services in the Highway 101/SMART corridor, is projected to carry approximately 4,000 additional trips compared to the No-Build Alternative transit services. The movement of work trips between Sonoma and Marin and other counties in the Bay Area is expected to increase by approximately two percent to 4.5 percent. TABLE FORECAST 2025 SYSTEM-WIDE TOTAL HOME-BASED WORK TRANSIT TRIP COMPARISON Alternative Trips within and between Sonoma and Marin Counties Trips between Sonoma and Marin Counties and other 7 Bay Area counties No-Build HBW Trips 13,040 41,709 Express Bus SMART Passenger Rail: Cloverdale to Larkspur SMART Passenger Rail: Windsor to San Rafael MOS Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff 5.3 Express Bus Ridership HBW Trips 13,477 41,938 Difference from No-Build % Change 3.35% 0.55% HBW Trips 18,372 47,440 Difference from No-Build 5,332 5,731 % Change 40.89% 13.74% HBW Trips 18,419 47,599 Difference from No-Build 5,379 5,890 % Change 41.25% 14.12% Table displays the total daily ridership for the 14 Express Bus routes by mode of access. The total ridership is projected to be over 2,300 daily riders who either drive or walk to the bus stop. It is observed that approximately 85 percent of the total ridership is by walk access to bus during the peak commuter period. The Express Bus (GG_80_113) attracts the highest ridership of 558 riders while the 12 area-toarea commuter routes attract a combined ridership of over 1,500 daily riders. A total of 230 riders are expected to travel daily by the Super Express Bus route. Table reports the total home-based work ridership for the Express Bus routes for drive access and walk access. During peak commute period, a total of 1,341 riders are projected to use the express bus routes for home-based work related trips. A majority of these trips are walk-access boardings with a share of approximately 85 percent of the total trips. The area-to-area commuter routes reflect a combined ridership of 881 riders, followed by Express Bus with 156 riders, and Super Express with 108 riders. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 30 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

37 TABLE TOTAL DAILY RIDERSHIP FOR EXPRESS BUS ROUTES Express Bus Route Drive Peak Walk Total North Santa Rosa to Novato: GG_80_ East Santa Rosa to Novato: GG_80_ North Santa Rosa to Terra Linda: GG_80_ East Santa Rosa to Terra Linda: GG_80_ North Santa Rosa to San Rafael: GG_80_ East Santa Rosa to San Rafael: GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Novato: GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Novato: GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Terra Linda: GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Terra Linda: GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to San Rafael: GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to San Rafael: GG_80_ Express Bus: GG_80_ Super Express Bus: GG_80_ Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff Total Daily Ridership 315 2,065 2,380 TABLE TOTAL HOME-BASED WORK RIDERSHIP FOR EXPRESS BUS ROUTES Express Bus Route Drive Peak Walk Total North Santa Rosa to Novato: GG_80_ East Santa Rosa to Novato: GG_80_ North Santa Rosa to Terra Linda: GG_80_ East Santa Rosa to Terra Linda: GG_80_ North Santa Rosa to San Rafael: GG_80_ East Santa Rosa to San Rafael: GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Novato: GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Novato: GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Terra Linda: GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to Terra Linda: GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to San Rafael: GG_80_ Rohnert Park-Cotati-Petaluma to San Rafael: GG_80_ Express Bus: GG_80_ Super Express Bus: GG_80_ Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff Total Daily Ridership 196 1,145 1,341 Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 31 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

38 5.4 Passenger Rail Ridership Daily Ridership Table displays the balanced daily boardings and alightings for SMART passenger rail service between Cloverdale and Larkspur by mode of access. Table displays the balanced daily boardings for the MOS between Windsor and San Rafael. An estimated 4,756 riders are projected to use the rail service on a daily basis in 2025 between Cloverdale and Larkspur and an estimated 3,464 riders are projected to use the MOS. TABLE TOTAL DAILY RIDERSHIP FOR SMART PASSENGER RAIL: CLOVERDALE TO LARKSPUR Commuter Rail Station Stop Drive Peak Walk Off-Peak Walk Total Ridership Boardings Cloverdale Alightings Boardings Healdsburg Alightings Boardings Windsor Alightings Boardings Santa Rosa - Jennings Ave. Alightings Boardings Downtown Santa Rosa Alightings Boardings Rohnert Park Alightings Boardings Cotati Alightings Boardings Petaluma - Corona Road Alightings Boardings Downtown Petaluma Alightings Boardings North Novato Alightings Boardings South Novato Alightings Boardings Marin County Civic Center Alightings Boardings Downtown San Rafael Alightings Boardings Larkspur Alightings Boardings 2,398 1, ,756 GRAND TOTAL Alightings 2,398 1, ,756 Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 32 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

39 TABLE TOTAL DAILY RIDERSHIP FOR SMART PASSENGER RAIL: WINDSOR TO SAN RAFAEL Commuter Rail Station Stop Drive Peak Walk Off-Peak Walk Total Ridership Boardings Windsor Alightings Boardings Santa Rosa - Jennings Ave. Alightings Boardings Downtown Santa Rosa Alightings Boardings Rohnert Park Alightings Boardings Cotati Alightings Boardings Petaluma - Corona Road Alightings Boardings Downtown Petaluma Alightings Boardings North Novato Alightings Boardings South Novato Alightings Boardings Marin County Civic Center Alightings Boardings Downtown San Rafael Alightings Boardings 1, ,464 GRAND TOTAL Alightings 1, ,464 Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff Drive access boardings are approximately the same as the walk access boardings in the rail alternatives, reflecting 50 percent of all rail boardings for the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative and 56 percent of all rail boardings for the MOS Alternative. The model results indicate that the three most heavily utilized stations are Windsor, Santa Rosa at Jennings Avenue, and Downtown Santa Rosa. The Downtown Santa Rosa station is estimated to attract the highest number of boardings and alightings, with a total of approximately 722 riders for the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative and 634 riders for the MOS Alternative. The elimination of Cloverdale, Healdsburg, and Larkspur stations in the MOS Alternative results in a decrease of approximately 1,300 riders compared to the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative. In addition to the loss in ridership from the three eliminated stations, the remaining stations also have a small decrease in ridership. In the two rail alternatives, the Novato stations have the fewest boardings and alightings with each attracting about 150 daily boardings and alightings across alternatives Home-Based Work Ridership Table presents home-based work balanced ridership for the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative by mode of access. The balanced ridership for the MOS Alternative is shown in Table Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 33 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

40 In the year 2025 it is estimated that the passenger rail service between Cloverdale and Larkspur carries approximately 3,860 riders, reflecting approximately 89 percent of the total daily ridership. In the MOS Alternative, 3,092 riders are projected to travel between Windsor and San Rafael, reflecting approximately 75 percent of total daily trips. The drive access boardings constitute approximately 58 percent of all boardings for each of the two rail alternatives. TABLE TOTAL HOME-BASED WORK RIDERSHIP FOR SMART PASSENGER RAIL: CLOVERDALE TO LARKSPUR Commuter Rail Station Stop Drive Peak Walk Off-Peak Walk Total Ridership Boardings Cloverdale Alightings Boardings Healdsburg Alightings Boardings Windsor Alightings Boardings Santa Rosa - Jennings Ave. Alightings Boardings Downtown Santa Rosa Alightings Boardings Rohnert Park Alightings Boardings Cotati Alightings Boardings Petaluma - Corona Road Alightings Boardings Downtown Petaluma Alightings Boardings North Novato Alightings Boardings South Novato Alightings Boardings Marin County Civic Center Alightings Boardings Downtown San Rafael Alightings Boardings Larkspur Alightings Boardings 2, ,860 GRAND TOTAL Alightings 2, ,860 Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 34 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

41 TABLE TOTAL HOME-BASE WORK RIDERSHIP FOR SMART PASSENGER RAIL: WINDSOR TO SAN RAFAEL Commuter Rail Station Stop Drive Peak Walk Off-Peak Walk Total Ridership Boardings Windsor Alightings Boardings Santa Rosa - Jennings Ave. Alightings Boardings Downtown Santa Rosa Alightings Boardings Rohnert Park Alightings Boardings Cotati Alightings Boardings Petaluma - Corona Road Alightings Boardings Downtown Petaluma Alightings Boardings North Novato Alightings Boardings South Novato Alightings Boardings Marin County Civic Center Alightings Boardings Downtown San Rafael Alightings Boardings 1, ,092 GRAND TOTAL Alightings 1, ,092 Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff Peak Period Ridership Figures and display schematic representations of AM peak period boardings and alightings for each SMART passenger rail alternative. Peak boardings and peak alightings represent the sum of peak drive access and peak walk access ridership at each rail station during the morning (AM) commute peak period. In the figures, on and off indicate boardings and alightings respectively, at each station stop. The numbers between station stops indicate total segment volumes (or loads) in the direction of travel. As seen from the figures, the ridership is heavier in the southbound direction of travel than in the northbound direction of travel during the morning peak period; the reverse takes place in the PM peak period. In the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative, illustrated in Figure 5.4-1, the peak period load point is in the southbound direction between the Santa Rosa-Jennings Avenue Station and the Downtown Santa Rosa Station with a load of 750 riders. In the southbound direction at both Windsor and Santa Rosa-Jennings Avenue stations it is estimated that there will be over 250 boardings during the AM peak period. In the northbound direction the AM peak period load point is about 300 and occurs between Rohnert Park and Downtown Santa Rosa stations. Similar to the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative, the MOS Alternative s peak load point in the southbound direction is between the Santa Rosa stations; however the load is less with approximately Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 35 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

42 570 riders (Figure 5.4-2). In the northbound direction, the peak period load point is between Cotati and Rohnert Park stations and is estimated to have approximately 300 AM peak period riders. FIGURE PEAK PERIOD RIDERSHIP FOR CLOVERDALE TO LARKSPUR ALTERNATIVE SOUTHBOUND NORTHBOUND On Off On Off 89 0 Cloverdale On Off On Off Healdsburg On Off On Off Windsor On Off On Off Santa Rosa Jennings Avenue On Off On Off Downtown Santa Rosa On Off On Off Rohnert Park On Off On Off Cotati On Off On Off 62 5 Petaluma Corona Road On Off On Off Dowtown Petaluma On Off On Off North Novato On Off On Off South Novato On Off On Off Marin County Civic Center On Off On Off Downtown 21 0 San Rafael On Off On Off Larkspur 51 0 TOTAL TOTAL 1,241 1, Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 36 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

43 FIGURE PEAK PERIOD RIDERSHIP FOR WINDSOR TO SAN RAFAEL ALTERNATIVE SOUTHBOUND NORTHBOUND On Off On Off Windsor On Off On Off Santa Rosa Jennings Avenue On Off On Off Downtown Santa Rosa On Off On Off Rohnert Park On Off On Off Cotati On Off On Off 54 4 Petaluma Corona Road On Off On Off Downtown Petaluma On Off On Off North Novato On Off On Off South Novato On Off On Off Marin County Civic Center On Off On Off Downtown San Rafael 32 0 TOTAL TOTAL Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 37 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

44 5.4.4 Shuttle Bus Ridership Table and Table report shuttle bus boardings by mode of access for each passenger rail alternative. An estimated 6,652 riders are projected to use the shuttle bus system in the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative and an estimated 4,756 riders in the MOS Alternative. It is observed that the total walk access boardings constitute over 90 percent of the total boardings in each alternative. For the full length alternative, the shuttle routes in Larkspur attract the highest number of daily riders with 2,000 boardings followed by the routes in San Rafael with over 1,700 boardings. For the MOS Alternative, the shuttle routes in San Rafael report the highest boardings of 1,800 boardings followed by the routes in Petaluma with 1,200 boardings. Ridership on the free shuttles is higher than rail ridership for both alternatives due to the model assignment of non-rail riders to the coded shuttle system. TABLE DAILY 2025 SHUTTLE BUS BOARDINGS FOR CLOVERDALE TO LARKSPUR ALTERNATIVE No. Shuttle Route City/Station Peak Drive Peak Walk Off-Peak Walk Total 1 80_Route_A San Rafael _Route_B San Rafael _Route_C San Rafael _Route_D San Rafael _Route_E Petaluma _Route_F Petaluma _Route_G-A Novato _Route_G-B Novato _Route_H-A Marin CCC _Route_H-B Marin CCC _Route_L-A Larkspur ,603 80_Route_L-B Larkspur Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff Total Boardings 613 3,318 2,721 6,652 TABLE DAILY 2025 SHUTTLE BUS BOARDINGS FOR WINDSOR TO SAN RAFAEL ALTERNATIVE No. Shuttle Route City/Station Peak Drive Peak Walk Off-Peak Walk Total 1 80_Route_A San Rafael _Route_B San Rafael _Route_C San Rafael , _Route_D San Rafael _Route_E Petaluma _Route_F Petaluma _Route_G-A Novato _Route_G-B Novato _Route_H-A Marin CCC _Route_H-B Marin CCC Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff Total Boardings 390 2,515 1,860 4,756 Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 38 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

45 5.4.5 Parking Demand Table shows the estimated daily parking required at each station based on the projected drive-tostation boardings for the full length passenger rail alternative during peak periods. It was assumed that about ten percent of the total drive access boardings occur by kiss-and-ride (KNR) type of boarding. It is estimated that approximately 1,110 parking spaces will be needed to meet the overall demand for station parking. The Santa Rosa Jennings Ave. Station has the highest parking demand at 225 spaces while Downtown Petaluma has the lowest demand at 30 spaces. Table reports the daily parking required at each station for the MOS alternative. It is projected that a total of 985 parking spaces will be required to meet parking needs with Santa Rosa and Downtown Petaluma stations showing similar parking demand as in the full length alternative. TABLE PARKING DEMAND FOR CLOVERDALE TO LARKSPUR ALTERNATIVE Commuter Rail Station Rounded to Nearest Five Spaces Cloverdale Healdsburg Windsor Santa Rosa - Jennings Ave Downtown Santa Rosa 3 No Parking Provided 0 Rohnert Park Cotati Petaluma Downtown Petaluma North Novato South Novato Marin County Civic Center Downtown San Rafael 0 No Parking Provided 0 Larkspur 2 No Parking Provided 0 Total 2,399 2, , ,110 Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff Drive Access Boardings Assume 10% Carpool Parking Spaces Needed Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 39 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

46 TABLE PARKING DEMAND FOR WINDSOR TO SAN RAFAEL ALTERNATIVE Commuter Rail Station Drive Access Boardings Assume 10% Carpool Parking Spaces Needed Rounded to Nearest Five Spaces Windsor Santa Rosa - Jennings Ave Downtown Santa Rosa 2 No Parking Provided 0 Rohnert Park Cotati Petaluma Downtown Petaluma North Novato South Novato Marin County Civic Center Downtown San Rafael 1 No Parking Provided 0 Total 1,943 1, Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff 5.5 Transit Trip Length Transit trip length for each build alternative was developed based on the transit person-miles-traveled (PMT) reported by the model. Table presents total PMT and the average person trip length for each alternative by mode of access. In the Express Bus Alternative, the trip lengths were computed only for the long distance point-to-point express routes i.e. Express Bus and Super Express Bus. From the table, it is observed that the Super Express Bus reports the highest trip length of 57 miles for drive access boardings and 29 miles for the peak walk access boardings. The long trip lengths could be attributed to fewer bus pads along its route and for effectively utilizing the HOV lanes on Highway-101. The Express Bus has shorter trip lengths of 15 miles and 11 miles for drive access and walk access boardings, respectively. In the case of passenger rail alternatives, a higher trip length of approximately 17 miles is reported in the southbound direction for peak walk access boardings. For the drive access boardings, the southbound trip length is higher at 15 miles in the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative than the MOS Alternative which reports a trip length of 11 miles. However, in the northbound direction both rail alternatives have an average trip length of approximately 11 miles for drive access boardings. The MOS Alternative shows a higher trip length of approximately 14 miles for peak walk boardings in the northbound direction while the Cloverdale to Larkspur Alternative shows a shorter trip length of 10 miles in the same direction. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 40 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

47 Express Bus Super Express Bus TABLE FORECAST TRANSIT TRIP LENGTH FOR BUILD ALTERNATIVES Express Bus Alternative Commuter Rail Alternative Total Boardings Person-Miles- Traveled (PMT) Average Person Trip Length (Miles) Drive 150 2, Peak Walk 408 4, Off-Peak Walk Drive 55 3, Peak Walk 175 5, Off-Peak Walk Total Boardings Person-Miles- Traveled (PMT) Average Person Trip Length (Miles) Cloverdale to Larkspur (Northbound) Drive 756 8, Peak Walk 622 6, Off-Peak Walk 235 2, Cloverdale to Larkspur (Southbound) Drive 1,642 24, Peak Walk , Off-Peak Walk 671 6, Windsor to San Rafael (Northbound) Drive 701 7, Peak Walk 268 3, Off-Peak Walk 139 1, Windsor to San Rafael (Southbound) Drive 1,240 13, Peak Walk 557 9, Off-Peak Walk 555 5, Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff 5.6 Vehicle Miles Traveled and Vehicle Hours Traveled Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and vehicle hours traveled (VHT) for each future alternative were estimated using loaded highway networks from the model. VMT represents the product of highway traffic volumes and the vehicle distance traveled after trip assignment. Similarly, VHT represents the product of highway traffic volumes and highway congested travel time after trip assignment. VMT and VHT for the study area were estimated for morning four-hour peak period, morning peak hour and evening peak hour. Table presents Year 2000 and forecast VMT and VHT by alternative for Sonoma and Marin Counties. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 41 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

48 TABLE VMT AND VHT FOR SONOMA COUNTY AND MARIN COUNTY BY STUDY ALTERNATIVE Four-Hour Peak Period Scenario Year 4-Hour Peak Period VMT 4-Hour Peak Period VHT Average Roadway Speed (Mph) No Build (Base) ,861, , No Build (RTP) ,829, , Express Bus ,832, , Cloverdale to Larkspur Rail ,789, , Windsor to San Rafael Rail (MOS) ,803, , Scenario Year AM Peak Hour VMT AM Peak Hour VHT Average Roadway Speed (Mph) No Build (Base) ,197,530 42, No Build (RTP) ,607,490 80, Express Bus ,605,410 79, Cloverdale to Larkspur Rail ,599,780 78, Windsor to San Rafael Rail (MOS) ,593,270 77, Scenario Year PM Peak Hour VMT PM Peak Hour VHT Average Roadway Speed (Mph) No Build (Base) ,202,500 42, No Build (RTP) ,554,780 65, Express Bus ,563,810 66, Cloverdale to Larkspur Rail ,547,520 64, Windsor to San Rafael Rail (MOS) ,551,510 65, Source: MTC Model, Parsons Brinckerhoff Morning (AM) Peak Hour Evening (PM) Peak Hour Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit 42 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

49 APPENDIX A 2025 HOME-BASED WORK TRIPS SONOMA COUNTY Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit Travel Demand Forecasting Report

50 PART I 2025 TOTAL HBW TRIPS FROM SONOMA COUNTY TO SUPER-DISTRICTS IN BAY AREA (PART I) San Francisco San Mateo Santa Clara County SD ,391 11,119 10,162 1,850 3,057 2,252 1,622 1,230 1, ,541 44,429 24,412 6,616 8,021 4,876 4,480 2,823 3,188 1,483 1, ,318 1,868 San 3 112,883 22,575 66,398 9,541 19,404 6,652 7,881 4,574 4,289 2,374 1, ,558 2,556 Francisco 4 45,274 11,716 22,543 7,481 6,292 2,073 2, , ,025 16,992 36,265 7,324 97,144 30,468 16,770 4,570 4,256 1,527 1, ,827 2, ,167 3,449 7,845 1,349 45,695 71,284 33,691 9,669 12,146 3,640 2,294 1, ,298 2,185 San Mateo 7 11,737 3,569 5,814 1,821 29,985 21,280 81,729 35,460 17,388 7,281 5,434 3,163 1,504 2,649 1,342 5, , ,930 4,754 18,349 60,782 52,880 8,010 11,353 7,285 2,991 2, , , , ,564 4,589 14,537 47, ,756 23,594 23,641 23,783 7,897 7,825 1,475 7, , ,692 3,391 11,632 26,864 98,799 65,656 57,893 19,938 18,119 9,939 1,371 6, , ,919 1,604 6,568 14,759 82,621 46,909 83,766 54,485 31,868 10,011 1,291 10, , , ,315 2,067 10,120 26,200 96,061 39,557 70,363 76,351 28,009 19,855 4,792 18, , ,361 8,635 63,759 23,618 57,629 26,398 30,316 13,251 1,006 3,776 Santa Clara 14 1, ,916 13,199 8,276 15,674 6,998 11,876 51, , , ,324 3,681 3,445 2,564 20,053 2,613 5,189 9,606 1, ,778 13, , ,782 1,325 9,862 8,780 14,158 11,684 50,574 8,380 12,797 17,348 4,849 1,846 15,073 96, ,316 3,356 4,763 1,648 10,062 13,343 10,023 3,189 9,230 2,447 3,651 3, ,886 41, ,263 11,710 13,896 3,219 9,995 5,898 4,102 2,282 4,666 1,559 2,595 2, ,929 22,511 Alameda 19 18,013 3,810 4, ,501 1,047 1, , , ,132 4, ,762 3,427 11,623 1,559 5,163 1,550 1, , ,703 3, ,257 4,890 9,665 1,333 4,683 2,166 1, , ,360 2, ,691 2,576 5, ,466 1, ,322 1,532 Contra 23 9,791 1,610 4, ,664 2,422 1, ,186 1,036 1,770 1, ,240 7,257 Costa 24 7,153 2,779 4, ,404 1,194 1, , , ,402 3, ,041 2,040 3, , ,514 1,122 Solano 26 6,149 1,940 2, , ,706 1, , Napa Sonoma 29 12,326 2,805 2, ,594 1,087 1, , , ,208 1,844 2, , Marin 32 28,236 3,764 4, , TOTAL 720, , ,347 51, , , , , , , , , , , , ,958 Alameda Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit A-1 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

51 2025 TOTAL HBW TRIPS FROM SONOMA COUNTY TO SUPER-DISTRICTS IN BAY AREA (PART II) PART II Alameda Contra Costa Solano Napa Sonoma Marin TOTAL County SD ,248 1, , ,539 7,287 3, , ,888 1,224 1,521 1, ,587 San 3 3,551 8,072 4,880 1,238 1, ,021 1, ,740 Francisco ,897 1, , , ,625 5,691 2,524 1,622 1, , ,275 1, , ,221 3,383 1, , ,117 San Mateo 7 3,529 1,860 1, , , , , , , , , , ,392 1, , , , ,743 Santa Clara , ,976 17,250 2,719 1,863 4,104 4,388 19,157 1, , ,998 20,049 6,938 1,205 2,044 1,432 4, , ,929 62,076 10,959 3,568 3,230 2,386 6,457 1, , , ,168 31,854 11,334 7,770 7,633 5,338 1,969 1, , ,480 2, ,192 Alameda 19 8,468 24,260 52,230 7,423 3,028 2,948 1, , ,530 1, , ,986 24,904 25,594 74,056 11,274 5,223 2,852 3,678 2,605 1, ,841 1,787 5,746 3, , ,100 19,768 7,170 9,954 79,574 40,482 15,400 12,581 3,215 2, , , ,394 15,114 7,004 5,435 19,565 33,140 9,125 4,578 1, ,900 Contra 23 15,024 12,026 3,211 2,852 8,992 13,169 31,128 2, ,337 Costa 24 5,598 12,541 2,604 5,576 42,492 15,444 7,164 89,844 2,044 2, , , ,121 9,201 3,388 8,591 15,190 5,399 3,251 1,670 38,850 5,950 10,787 1,770 4,296 1,925 2, ,630 Solano 26 2,121 8,605 1,580 13,165 17,247 5,994 2,817 4,781 38, ,481 15,968 1,814 3,730 1,781 1, , , ,209 1, ,033 2,627 43,446 6,551 14, , ,005 Napa ,351 15,494 2, ,560 Sonoma , , ,139 3,550 3, ,111 18,042 13,720 8, , ,061 16,293 11,941 4,445 59, , , ,161 10,528 34,086 12,340 98,183 Marin ,592 1,208 1, ,909 3,758 8,358 23,398 89,005 TOTAL 289, , , , , , , , , ,041 88,958 29, ,229 62,515 94,833 67,400 7,293,082 Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit A-2 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

52 APPENDIX B 2025 HOME-BASED WORK TRIPS MARIN COUNTY Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit Travel Demand Forecasting Report

53 PART I 2025 TOTAL HBW TRIPS FROM MARIN COUNTY TO SUPER-DISTRICTS IN BAY AREA (PART I) San Francisco San Mateo County SD ,391 11,119 10,162 1,850 3,057 2,252 1,622 1,230 1, ,541 44,429 24,412 6,616 8,021 4,876 4,480 2,823 3,188 1,483 1, ,318 1,868 San 3 112,883 22,575 66,398 9,541 19,404 6,652 7,881 4,574 4,289 2,374 1, ,558 2,556 Francisco 4 45,274 11,716 22,543 7,481 6,292 2,073 2, , ,025 16,992 36,265 7,324 97,144 30,468 16,770 4,570 4,256 1,527 1, ,827 2, ,167 3,449 7,845 1,349 45,695 71,284 33,691 9,669 12,146 3,640 2,294 1, ,298 2,185 San Mateo 7 11,737 3,569 5,814 1,821 29,985 21,280 81,729 35,460 17,388 7,281 5,434 3,163 1,504 2,649 1,342 5, , ,930 4,754 18,349 60,782 52,880 8,010 11,353 7,285 2,991 2, , , , ,564 4,589 14,537 47, ,756 23,594 23,641 23,783 7,897 7,825 1,475 7, , ,692 3,391 11,632 26,864 98,799 65,656 57,893 19,938 18,119 9,939 1,371 6, , ,919 1,604 6,568 14,759 82,621 46,909 83,766 54,485 31,868 10,011 1,291 10, , , ,315 2,067 10,120 26,200 96,061 39,557 70,363 76,351 28,009 19,855 4,792 18, , ,361 8,635 63,759 23,618 57,629 26,398 30,316 13,251 1,006 3,776 Santa Clara 14 1, ,916 13,199 8,276 15,674 6,998 11,876 51, , , ,324 3,681 3,445 2,564 20,053 2,613 5,189 9,606 1, ,778 13, , ,782 1,325 9,862 8,780 14,158 11,684 50,574 8,380 12,797 17,348 4,849 1,846 15,073 96, ,316 3,356 4,763 1,648 10,062 13,343 10,023 3,189 9,230 2,447 3,651 3, ,886 41, ,263 11,710 13,896 3,219 9,995 5,898 4,102 2,282 4,666 1,559 2,595 2, ,929 22,511 Alameda 19 18,013 3,810 4, ,501 1,047 1, , , ,132 4, ,762 3,427 11,623 1,559 5,163 1,550 1, , ,703 3, ,257 4,890 9,665 1,333 4,683 2,166 1, , ,360 2, ,691 2,576 5, ,466 1, ,322 1,532 Contra 23 9,791 1,610 4, ,664 2,422 1, ,186 1,036 1,770 1, ,240 7,257 Costa 24 7,153 2,779 4, ,404 1,194 1, , , ,402 3, ,041 2,040 3, , ,514 1,122 Solano 26 6,149 1,940 2, , ,706 1, , Napa ,410 1,646 1, , Sonoma 31 1, , Marin 32 55,098 6,404 8,478 1,767 5,383 1,139 1, TOTAL 720, , ,347 51, , , , , , , , , , , , ,958 Santa Clara Alameda Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit B-1 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

54 2025 TOTAL HBW TRIPS FROM MARIN COUNTY TO SUPER-DISTRICTS IN BAY AREA (PART II) PART II Alameda Contra Costa Solano Napa Sonoma Marin County SD TOTAL ,248 1, , , ,539 7,287 3, , , , ,587 San 3 3,551 8,072 4,880 1,238 1, , ,740 Francisco ,897 1, , , , ,625 5,691 2,524 1,622 1, , , , ,221 3,383 1, , , ,117 San Mateo 7 3,529 1,860 1, , , , , , , , , , ,392 1, , , , ,743 Santa Clara , ,976 17,250 2,719 1,863 4,104 4,388 19,157 1, , ,998 20,049 6,938 1,205 2,044 1,432 4, , , ,929 62,076 10,959 3,568 3,230 2,386 6,457 1, , , , ,168 31,854 11,334 7,770 7,633 5,338 1,969 1, ,081 1, , ,192 Alameda 19 8,468 24,260 52,230 7,423 3,028 2,948 1, , , ,986 24,904 25,594 74,056 11,274 5,223 2,852 3,678 2,605 1, ,209 1, , , ,100 19,768 7,170 9,954 79,574 40,482 15,400 12,581 3,215 2, , , ,394 15,114 7,004 5,435 19,565 33,140 9,125 4,578 1, , ,900 Contra 23 15,024 12,026 3,211 2,852 8,992 13,169 31,128 2, ,337 Costa 24 5,598 12,541 2,604 5,576 42,492 15,444 7,164 89,844 2,044 2, , , ,121 9,201 3,388 8,591 15,190 5,399 3,251 1,670 38,850 5,950 10,787 1,770 2,039 2, , ,630 Solano 26 2,121 8,605 1,580 13,165 17,247 5,994 2,817 4,781 38, ,481 15,968 1,814 1,634 1, , , , ,209 1, ,033 2,627 43,446 6,551 9,016 4, ,143 90,005 Napa ,351 15, , , , ,726 1,431 60,623 41,458 2,431 25, , ,408 26, ,061 11,971 11, ,953 Sonoma ,756 35,119 20,137 2,768 72,646 Marin 32 1,808 3,917 2,325 3, ,263 1, ,286 8, , ,400 TOTAL 289, , , , , , , , , ,041 88,958 29, , ,118 37, ,749 7,293,082 Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit B-2 Travel Demand Forecasting Report

55 APPENDIX C STATION-TO-STATION FARE MATRIX Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit Travel Demand Forecasting Report

56 STATION TO STATION FARE* MATRIX Station Cloverdale Healdsburg Windsor Santa Rosa Jennings Av. Downtown Santa Rosa Rohnert Park Cotati Petaluma - Corona Road Downtown Petaluma N. Novato S. Novato Marin County Civic Center San Rafael Larkspur Cloverdale $0.00 $1.92 $2.20 $2.57 $2.70 $2.99 $3.14 $3.55 $3.61 $4.09 $4.32 $4.60 $4.74 $5.00 Healdsburg $1.92 $0.00 $1.28 $1.65 $1.79 $2.07 $2.22 $2.63 $2.69 $3.17 $3.40 $3.68 $3.82 $4.08 Windsor $2.20 $1.28 $0.00 $1.37 $1.51 $1.79 $1.94 $2.36 $2.41 $2.90 $3.12 $3.40 $3.54 $3.80 Santa Rosa - Jennings Av. $2.57 $1.65 $1.37 $0.00 $1.14 $1.42 $1.57 $1.98 $2.04 $2.53 $2.75 $3.03 $3.17 $3.43 Downtown Santa Rosa $2.70 $1.79 $1.51 $1.14 $0.00 $1.28 $1.43 $1.85 $1.90 $2.39 $2.62 $2.89 $3.04 $3.30 Rohnert Park $2.99 $2.07 $1.79 $1.42 $1.28 $0.00 $1.15 $1.56 $1.62 $2.11 $2.33 $2.61 $2.75 $3.01 Cotati $3.14 $2.22 $1.94 $1.57 $1.43 $1.15 $0.00 $1.41 $1.47 $1.96 $2.18 $2.46 $2.60 $2.86 Petaluma - Corona Road $3.55 $2.63 $2.36 $1.98 $1.85 $1.56 $1.41 $0.00 $1.06 $1.54 $1.77 $2.05 $2.19 $2.45 Downtown Petaluma $3.61 $2.69 $2.41 $2.04 $1.90 $1.62 $1.47 $1.06 $0.00 $1.49 $1.71 $1.99 $2.13 $2.39 N. Novato $4.09 $3.17 $2.90 $2.53 $2.39 $2.11 $1.96 $1.54 $1.49 $0.00 $1.23 $1.50 $1.65 $1.91 S. Novato $4.32 $3.40 $3.12 $2.75 $2.62 $2.33 $2.18 $1.77 $1.71 $1.23 $0.00 $1.28 $1.42 $1.68 Marin County Civic Center $4.60 $3.68 $3.40 $3.03 $2.89 $2.61 $2.46 $2.05 $1.99 $1.50 $1.28 $0.00 $1.14 $1.40 San Rafael $4.74 $3.82 $3.54 $3.17 $3.04 $2.75 $2.60 $2.19 $2.13 $1.65 $1.42 $1.14 $0.00 $1.26 Larkspur $5.00 $4.08 $3.80 $3.43 $3.30 $3.01 $2.86 $2.45 $2.39 $1.91 $1.68 $1.40 $1.26 $0.00 * In year 1990 US dollars based on distance in miles between stations Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit C-1 Travel Demand Forecasting Report