Applied Macro and International Economics. Alberto Cavallo. February 2011

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1 Exchange Rt Rates Applied Macro and International Economics Alberto Cavallo February 2011

2 Class Outline Nominal exchange rates E Short run: market for local currency Interest rate parity Long run: Law of one price and PPP Real Exchange rates E and Prices

3 Nominal Exchange Rate Exchange Rate key price in open economies effect on trade and financial flows Nominal Ex. Rate = E = price of one currency in terms of another Two ways of expressing it: Local currency per unit of foreign currency. Eg Brazil: $5 reals per dollar ( E deprecia on of local currency) MORE INTUITIVE: Foreign currency per unit of local currency. Eg Brazil: 02d 0.2 dollars per real ( E is apprecia on of local l currency) From now on, I will use the intuitive form

4 Reals per 1USD Last year. Is the Real appreciating /depreciating? Less Reals to buy dollar.. Dollars per 1 Real Real is appreciating More dollars to buy real.. Yahoo.com. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see

5 Euros per 1USD Last 5 days. Is the Euro appreciating /depreciating? Less Euros to buy dollar.. Dollars per 1EUR Euro is appreciating More dollars to buy euro.. Yahoo.com. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. For more information, see

6 Market for Local Currency The price is E (foreign currency per unit of local currrency) E means local currency is more valuable (appreciates) What affects E? Exports & Imports Financial Flows

7 Market for Local Currency Example: Brazil Imports need to buy dollars to purchase goods abroad supply reals Exports bring dollars from abroad, need to exchange them for reals demand reals Capital Outflows (away from brazil) supply reals Capital Inflow (coming to brazil) demand reals

8 Short run: run: Currency Market Market for Reals (local currency) E(US$/reals) or Value of Real Net Capital Outflow (i US,i BR, Expectations) + Appreciation Depreciation Net Export (E, taste, trade policy) Current Account

9 What affects the nominal E? Exports are more desirable NX E appreciation Market tf for Reals (local l currency) E(US$/reals) or Value of Real Net Capital Outflow (i US,i BR, Expectations) Appreciation Depreciation Net Exports Net Exports Current Account

10 What affects the nominal E? If interest rates go down capital outflows E depreciation If investors leave in panic capital outflows E depreciation Market for Reals (local currency) E(US$/reals) or Value of Real Net Capital Outflow Net Capital Outflow Appreci ation Depreci ation Net Export (E, taste, trade policy) Current Account

11 Short run run In the short run run mostly about financial transactions capital outflows and inflows Depend on interest rates + current and Depend on interest rates + current and expected exchange rates

12 Interest Rate Parity 1+iUS USA 1 US$ (1/Et) * (1+iBR )*Et+1 Change back C Currency att t+1 (Et+1 ) Change currency B BRAZIL 1+iUS 1+iBR (1/Et) reals (1/Et) * (1+iBR ) Note: E is dollars per real, so 1/E is reals per dollar 1+iUS = (1/Et) * (1+iBR )*Et+1 Invest in US 1+iUS Invest in BRAZIL If ius, ibr or expect apprecia on or real (Et+1/Et) < (1+iBR )*(Et+1/Et) more capital flows to Brazil ( example of carry trade )

13 Long Run Theories Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Based on Law of one price same good should sell for the same amount (expressed in same currency) in two countries Otherwise arbitrage opportunity P US = P BR. E (US$/Real) Cost US (dollars) Cost in Brazil (dollars)

14 PPP If PPP holds, in the long run: E(US$/Real) = P US /P /P BR Intui on: If P US /P BR US is expensive, Brazil cheap buy goods in brazil, sell in US demand for real goes up (think exports) E(US$/Real)

15 Does PPP hold in the data? Big Mac Index US vs UK US$3.73 = 2.29*1.61(dollars/pound)=US$3.61 Us vs Norway US$3.73 = K45* 0.175(dollars/kroner)= US$7.87 i di li f S Find it online..for US and UK Ipod classic 160gb Apple TV Top selling MP3 Song in Amazon

16 PPP fails because Non tradable goods Transport Costs Taxes Items not identical to consumers Market conditions (taste, competitors) Pricing to market

17 Long Run Theories PPP use as an approximation Another long run theory: BB NN not in this class. Roberto teaches it in next year

18 Real Exchange Rate Exports and Imports are affected by E and the price level in each country E. P BR BR (US$/real) Real E P US If E or P BR or P US real depreciation brazil relatively cheaper exports more

19 Depreciation as a policy tool In the short run run > P BR fixed Expansionary Monetary Policy M i E real depreciation more exports In long run inflation P BR real appreciation i So? more printing, nominal depreciation, inflation again can spiral out of control

20 Remember E is determined. Short run: capital flows currency market Long run: PPP Real E matters for trade E and Prices

21 MIT OpenCourseWare Applied Macro- and International Economics Spring 2011 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit:

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