NATIONAL METHAMPHETAMINE THREAT ASSESSMENT. U.S.1)1' MIZTVIEVI N LION L!MN; IVILLLICE\CIt ( 1 1:VI LIZ

Transcription

1 NATIONAL METHAMPHETAMINE THREAT ASSESSMENT U.S.1)1' MIZTVIEVI N LION L!MN; IVILLLICE\CIt ( 1 1:VI LIZ 2010

2 Product No Q National Drug Intelligence Center U.S. DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE NATIONAL DRUG INTELLIGENCE CENTER

3 National Methamphetamine Threat Assessment 2010 ii

4 Product No Q National Drug Intelligence Center Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Discussion 1 Outlook 7 Appendix A Map 9 Sources 11 iii

5 National Methamphetansine Threat Assessment 2010 iv

6 U.S. Department of Justice National Drug Intelligence Center National Methamphetamine Threat Assessment 2010 Product No Q Executive Summary After gradually declining since 2006, domestic methamphetamine availability has rebounded and is at a 5-year high as a result of increasing large-scale production of the drug in Mexico and, to a lesser extent, the increasing prevalence of small-scale production in the United States. Mid-2009 indicators, particularly increased methamphetamine seizures along the Southwest Border and seizures of bulk pseudoephedrine and pseudoephedrine analogs entering Mexico, point to a renewed ability of Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DT0s) to acquire precursor chemicals. This has led to a resurgence in methamphetamine production in Mexico. Moreover, the increased use of nonephedrine-based methods of methamphetamine production by Mexican DTOs, along with seizures in Mexico of large-scale methamphetamine laboratories that used nonephedrine-based production methods, confirms increased production in Mexico. At the same time, seizures of methamphetamine laboratories in the United States rose for the second year in a row, primarily because of the growing prevalence of small-scale "onepot," or "shake and bake," laboratories. As a result, overall methamphetamine availability is high and increasing, as evidenced by supplies of the purest methamphetamine available in U.S. markets since 2005, at prices that currently reflect a 5-year low. As Mexican methamphetamine production increases, the need for domestic production will decrease. Preliminary first-quarter 2010 data on methamphetamine laboratory seizures reflect a downward trend in domestic production the result of the restored availability of Mexico-produced methamphetamine in U.S. drug markets. Discussion Increasing methamphetamine production in Mexico and, to a lesser extent, small-scale domestic methamphetamine production is driving up methamphetamine availability in the United States. Since mid-2009, U.S. methamphetamine seizure, price, and purity levels have indicated increasing methamphetamine availability in U.S. drug markets. System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence (STRIDE) data show that in 2009, the price per pure gram for methamphetamine reached its lowest point since 2005 a year in which methamphetamine availability was very high. The recent decline in methamphetamine prices was very sharp, with a 37 percent decrease ($ to $110.87) from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of STRIDE data show a 14 percent increase (from 63.7 percent to 72.9 percent) in average methamphetamine purity during the same period, the highest reported methamphetamine purity level since Methamphetamine production has increased in Mexico as a result of Meriean DTOs' ability to circumvent government of Mexico (GO* chemical sales and import restrictions by establishing new sources for ephedrine and pseudoephedrine, utilizing new smuggling routes for 1

7 National Methamphetamine Threat Assessment Figure 1. Methamphetamine Laboratory Seizures in Mexico * 215 1li 150 A " Z W Source: Drug Enforcement Administration. Data as of February 4, Year chemicals, and increasing their use of alternative chemicals and methods to produce methamphetamine. The rise in production is evidenced by a dramatic percent increase in the number of methamphetamine laboratory seizures in Mexico from 2008 (51) to 2009 (215) as well as increased flow of the drug across the Southwest Border, as evidenced by a significant increase in the amount of methamphetamine seized along the border (see Figure 1, above, and Figure 2 on page 3). Mexican authorities often seize shipments of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine, particularly at the country's seaports and international airports, from source and transit countries such as China and South Korea. For instance, in February 2009, Mexican authorities seized 324 kilograms of pseudoephedrine at the Mexico City International Airport inside 14 suitcases belonging to individuals returning to Mexico from Hong Kong. In January 2009, Mexican authorities seized almost 3 tons of pseudoephedrine from a South Korean ship at the Port of Manzanillo. Mexican drug traffickers often use Central and South American countries such as Guatemala as transshipment points to smuggle ephedrine and pseudoephedrine into Mexico. For example, in January 2010, Guatemalan authorities seized approximately 700,000 tablets of pseudoephedrine destined for Mexico that had originated in Bangladesh. Other Central and South American countries, such as Honduras and Argentina, have also experienced an increase in Mexican DTO presence and pseudoephedrine smuggling since Mexico's precursor restrictions were enacted. Alternatively, Mexican DTOs import chemical derivatives and analogues into Mexico to produce precursor chemicals, including ephedrine and pseudoephedrine, for methamphetamine production. The importation of chemical derivatives and analogues (such as n-acetyl pseudoephedrine and phenyl-2-propanone (P2P)) for the purpose of methamphetamine production 2

8 Product No Q National Drug Intelligence Center Methamphetamine Chemical Restrictions in Mexico Pseudoephedrine and ephedrine import restrictions in Mexico resulted in decreased Mexican methamphetamine production in 2007 and In 2005, the GOM began implementing progressively increasing restrictions on the importation of pseudoephedrine and ephedrine. In 2007, the GOM announced a prohibition on pseudoephedrine and ephedrine imports into Mexico for 2008 and a ban on the use of both chemicals in Mexico by In November 2009, in response to increasing use of phenyl acetic acid in methamphetamine production, the GOM made phenyl acetic acid a List I chemical, mandating that chemical companies apply for and maintain a permit to purchase and import the chemical. Figure 2. Methamphetamine Seizures Along the Southwest Border, in Kilograms * 6,000 5,000 5, ,000 E 3,000 A 3 2,347 2, ,320-2, , * Source: National Seizure System, run date April 27, * Partial-year data. *The run date for NSS data is listed for reference because NSS seizure data are updated frequently. Year is illegal in Mexico; however, such chemicals are frequently smuggled into Mexico through its airports and seaports. These chemicals are often not seized when found during inspections at ports of entry because law enforcement officials are unfamiliar with them. The increase in methamphetamine production in Mexico is due in large part to a rise in large-scale nonephedrine-based production in that country. The prevalence of clandestine laboratories in Mexico using nonephedrinebased methods of production primarily P2P increased significantly during The P2P method of production produces d,lmethamphetamine, a less potent form of the drug than that produced via ephedrine-based methods. Tartaric acid is used in an additional reaction to increase the potency of P2P-based methamphetamine. The GOM has reported several seizures of chemical derivatives and analogs used to produce the methamphetamine 3

9 National Methamphetamine Threat Assessment 2010 precursor chemical P2P, as well as tartaric acid. For example, on March 10, 2010, the Mexican military seized more than 1,000 pounds of tartaric acid and approximately 375 pounds of finished methamphetamine at a superlab' site in Michoacan. On April 8, 2010, Mexican Federal Police seized 80 metric tons of ethyl phenyl acetate, a derivative of phenyl acetic acid that was shipped in 400 barrels from Shanghai, China. Moreover, during a 1-week period in April 2010, Mexican authorities seized four separate nonephedrine superlabs two in Jalisco and two in Sinaloa. One of the laboratories, seized on April 10, 2010, in Culiacan, Sinaloa, included chemicals consistent with nonephedrine methamphetamine production methods, along with fifteen 50-liter reaction vessels, two 200-liter boilers, 126 kilograms of finished methamphetamine, and approximately 900 liters of methamphetamine in solution. In 2009, the number of reported domestic methamphetamine laboratory seizures increased for the second consecutive year. Domestic methamphetamine laboratory seizures increased from 3,096 laboratories in 2007 to 3,950 in 2008 to 5,308 in 2009 (see Figure 3 on page 5). Analysis of laboratory seizure data indicate that the increase-71 percent since 2007 primarily is due to an increase in the prevalence of small-scale "one pot," or "shake and bake," lithium ammonia method laboratories (see text box). In fact, of the small-scale laboratories seized between 2007 and 2009, the number of small-scale lithium ammonia method laboratories increased 158 percent overall from 1,583 in 2007 to 2,584 in 2008 to 4,089 in Domestic superlab seizures did not change significantly during this period. The number of superlabs seized increased only slightly from 2007 (11) to 2008 (17) before decreasing in 2009 (14). Of the superlabs seized in 2009, 13 were seized in California and one in Georgia. Rising methamphetamine production in 2009 was 1 Superlabs are laboratories capable of producing 10 or more pounds of methamphetamine in a single production cycle. realized in six of the nine Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Force regions, with the most notable increase occurring in the Great Lakes Region (see Map 1 in Appendix A). National Seizure System (NSS) data show that the total number of methamphetamine laboratories seized in the Great Lakes Region increased 62 percent, from 1,012 in 2008 to 1,640 in Of the 1,640 reported laboratories seized in the region in 2009, most (1,332) were capable of producing only 2 ounces or less of methamphetamine per production cycle. "One-Pot," or "Shake and Bake," Methamphetamine Production A one-pot cook is a variation of the lithium ammonia method of production also commonly referred to as the "Nazi" method. Instead of producing methamphetamine through a series of sequential steps normally used in the Nazi method the one-pot method is concluded in a single reaction vessel (typically a 2-liter plastic soda bottle), and all ingredients are mixed together at the outset. The mixture is left to react, naturally producing the necessary ammonia, which then reacts with the lithium metal to convert the pseudoephedrine into methamphetamine. Like all clandestine methamphetamine production operations, the one-pot method is dangerous because the reactions are volatile and difficult to control. Smurfing is the primary means by which methamphetamine producers in the United States are acquiring pseudoephedrine for methamphetamine production. Pseudoephedrine smurfing (see text box on page 6) has increased steadily since 2007 and, according to current law enforcement reporting, is now the primary means of pseudoephedrine acquisition for methamphetamine producers in the United States. The smurfs, whose operations are becoming increasingly organized, sell the precursor chemicals to methamphetamine producers or trade it for the drug. For example, 4

10 Product No Q National Drug Intelligence Center Figure 3. Reported Methamphetamine Laboratory Seizures in the United States * 7,000 8,000 5,000 8,010 5,305 Pi 4, aoo of t E. z 2,000 3,975 3, , III o ZOOS n * Year Source: National Seizure System. 'Data as of April 27, Figure 4. Reported Small-Scale Lithium Ammonia Method Laboratory Seizures in the United States, * 4,500 4, ,500 3,000 i II s 2800 la 1 2,000 E * 2 1,20 im II 3,203 I In 1,553 1 : sat 1, IIII iiiiiii MI IIIII a 201 Year Source: National Seizure System. 'Data as of April 27,

11 National Methamphetamine Threat Assessment 2010 Table 1. Trends in Percentage of Past Year Methamphetamine Use, Individuals (12 and older) Adolescents (12.17) Adults (18-25) Adults (26 and older) Source: National Survey on Drug Use and Health methamphetamine laboratory operators in the Central Valley California High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area (HIDTA), including Mexican criminal groups operating superlabs, are producing methamphetamine with pseudoephedrine acquired primarily through large-scale, organized smurfing operations based in central and southern California, Arizona, and Nevada. Pseudoephedrine Smurfing Pseudoephedrine smurfing is a method used by some methamphetamine traffickers to acquire large quantities of precursor chemicals. Methamphetamine producers purchase the chemicals in quantities at or below the legal thresholds from multiple retail locations. Methamphetamine producers often enlist the assistance of several friends or associates in smurfing operations to increase the speed of the operation and the quantity of chemicals acquired. National-level drug prevalence data indicate that methansphetamine use and methamphetamine-related treatment admissions declined during the period of decreased methamphetamine availability. The latest data available from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) show a steady and statistically significant decline in the rates of past year use for methamphetamine between 2006 (0.8%) and 2007 (0.5%) and again in 2008 (0.3%) for individuals aged 12 and older. (See Table 1.) In addition to declining prevalence of methamphetamine use, Treatment Episode Data Set (TEDS) data show that the number of methamphetamine-related treatment admissions to publicly funded treatment facilities, which had been relatively high and stable between 2005 (154,447) and 2006 (152,561), decreased in 2007 (137,154), the latest year for which such data are available. (See Table 2.) Moreover, TEDS data show that the proportion of methamphetamine-related treatment admissions to all drug-related treatment admissions (in publicly funded treatment facilities) dropped from 8.1 percent in 2006 (152,561 of 1,893,425) to 7.5 percent (137,154 of 1,817,577) in Table 2. Primary Methamphetamine Admissions to Publicly Funded Treatment Facilities, , , , , ,154 Source: Treatment Episode Data Set, These data sets cover 2007 and 2008, when domestic methamphetamine availability was significantly lower because of decreased production in Mexico. More recent studies, when released, are expected to show increases in use and treatment for 2009, since methamphetamine became more available in late 2008 and

12 Product No Q Outlook Increasing availability of Mexico-produced methamphetamine in U.S. drug markets will effect an overall decline in domestic methamphetamine production in Trend analysis reveals that increased supplies of Mexicoproduced methamphetamine typically alleviate the need for small-scale domestic production. Expectedly, after supplies of Mexico-produced methamphetamine increased in many U.S. markets during 2009, domestic laboratory seizures began trending downward in late During the first three quarters of 2009, domestic laboratory seizures were at their highest level in several years; however, seizures dropped significantly in the last quarter of the year. The decrease in small-production domestic laboratories is expected to continue through 2010 as the availability of Mexicoproduced methamphetamine remains high in most U.S. drug markets. National Drug Intelligence Center Methamphetamine production in Mexico and availability of Mexico-produced methamphetamine in U.S. drug markets will continue at high, stable levels in Methamphetamine production in Mexico and, therefore, seizure amounts along the Southwest Border will remain high in Mexican DTOs will continue to use alternative smuggling routes through Central and South America to illegally import ephedrine and pseudoephedrine and other necessary chemicals and derivatives into Mexico. Mexican DTOs will also increasingly use phenyl acetic acid to produce methamphetamine. 7

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14 Product No Q Appendix A. Map National Drug Intelligence Center 9

15 National Methamphetamine Threat Assessment

16 Product No Q National Drug Intelligence Center Sources Federal Executive Office of the President Office of National Drug Control Policy High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas Appalachia Arizona Atlanta California Border Alliance Group Central Florida Central Valley California Fresno Methamphetamine Task Force Stanislaus, San Joaquin Methamphetamine Task Force Los Angeles Los Angeles County Regional Criminal Information Clearinghouse Michigan Midwest Nevada Northern California Oregon Southwest Border U.S. Department of Defense U.S. Army Foreign Military Studies Office U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration National Survey on Drug Use and Health Treatment Episode Data Set U.S. Department of Homeland Security U.S. Customs and Border Protection U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Assistance Western States Information Network Drug Enforcement Administration El Paso Intelligence Center National Seizure System Special Testing and Research Laboratory System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence 11

17 National Methamphetamine Threat Assessment 2010 State and Local California Alameda County Drug Task Force Bay Methamphetamine Task Force Los Angeles Police Department Merced Sheriffs Department Sacramento Police Department San Diego Law Enforcement Coordination Center International Government of Mexico Center for Analysis, Planning, and Intelligence Against Organized Crime United Nations 12

18 Questions and comments may be directed to National Drug Threat Assessment Unit, National Threat Analysis Branch National Drug Intelligence Center 319 Washington Street 5111 Floor, Johnstown, PA ( NDIC publications are available on the following web sites: INTERNET ADNET RISS inlic s net LEO https...www leo gov : http : leowcs leopriv.govlesig,ndic!index.htin