After Strong 2015, Omaha Exudes Cautious Optimism

Transcription

1 Research & Forecast Report OMAHA OFFICE Fourth Quarter 2015 After Strong 2015, Omaha Exudes Cautious Optimism The Omaha office market continued to improve in the fourth quarter of 2015 as it experienced another 80,965 square feet of positive absorption compared to the same period in 2014 where absorption was 53,693 square feet. Total absorption for the year was 341,851 square feet; a notable 40 percent increase above the 10-year average of approximately 250,000 square feet. While the top line numbers are impressive, this report assesses the underlying data to truly understand the market drivers. For the quarter, three new build-to-suits were completed and added to the Omaha office inventory an additional 183,297 square feet, and all three buildings are now materially occupied. These three buildings are the 102,780 square-foot Pacific Life Building located in Aksarben Village, West Dodge Point at Burt consisting of 47,592 square feet, and the 29,405-square-foot Tagge Rutherford Building located at West Dodge Road. As a result of numerous new vacancies, the significant new buildto-suits mentioned above, and relocations; the vacancy rate for the Omaha Office Market increased slightly to 12.7 percent from 12.5 percent in the prior quarter but down 70 basis points from fourth quarter of Positive absorption has now occurred for five straight quarters as well as 9 of the last 10 years with 2009 being the exception; which was the beginning of the economic downturn. The current Omaha Office vacancy rate is 360 basis points below independent research firm Reis reported 16.3 percent national office vacancy rate for the quarter. As impressive as the statistics above are, one cannot lose track of the impact of a number of external factors which may become headwinds this year. These factors include the impact of the slowing Chinese economy, the continued destabilization of Europe s economy, the 12 year low price of crude oil and the impact of the energy sector in job loss, and the geopolitical issues of terrorism. While it is important to always consider the above, there is reason to be optimistic as there is significant new development in the Omaha Office Market which has been announced as well as new construction underway. Leading the planned new development is HDR s planned relocation to the CBD and constructing a 16 story building consisting of 290,000 square feet and bringing 900 employees to its new location between 11th and 12th and Dodge & Capitol Streets. Occupancy is slated for Another project currently referred to as The Yard has been approved by the Omaha Planning Board and will be located on a two-block parcel bound by 14th and 15th and Mike Fahey and Cuming Streets. The Yard will be a mixed-use development consisting of Kiewit s international training facility comprising 63,000 square feet of office space, a 5-story 110-unit apartment complex, and a 5-story 125-room hotel. The new administrative offices for Children s Hospital and Medical Market Indicators Relative to prior period Q Q1 2016* VACANCY NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE** Note: Construction is the change in Under Construction. * Projected CBD Q Suburban Q4 2015

2 Center are now under construction. This 30,000-square-foot structure will be built at 82nd & Cass Street which is proximate to Children s Hospital and Medical Center at 8200 West Dodge Road. Occupancy is planned for August of next year. Vacancy Rates 16% 14% Construction is nearly at completion at two office properties in the West Village Pointe development at 177th & Burke Street including Berkshire Hathaway Real Estate s 47,000-square-foot offices and the 42,000-square-foot Advent Building. Berkshire Hathaway Real Estate is in process of its relocation from Bank of the West Business Park. Both buildings will be delivered for occupancy in the first quarter of % 10% 8% 6% Q2 14 Q4 14 Q2 15 Q4 15 Tetrad Property Group is developing a 54,000-square-foot building as a build-to-suit for Green Plains Renewable Energy. Occupancy is scheduled for third quarter of this year. Office space is planned in the Lumberyard District, located on the former Millard Lumber headquarters site in downtown Millard. The amount of office space is approximately 19,000 square feet. Given all of this new construction, minimal new availabilities will occur as most of the construction announced is build-to-suits with minimal space offered to third parties. Combined Rental Rates $30 $25 Suburban CBD For the past quarter, Midtown (107,327 SF) and Suburban West Dodge (62,263 SF) submarkets were the leaders in positive absorption. By submarket, Suburban West Dodge continues to show the lowest vacancy rate in the Omaha Office Market. This popular submarket boasts a low 3.2 percent vacancy rate for the quarter. Other highly occupied submarkets with low vacancy rates include Miracle Hills (3.3%), Central West Dodge (6.7%), Midtown (7.2%), Regency (7.3%), and the CBD (8.7%). The submarkets which continue to underperform are the Southeast (47.2%), South Central (26.3%), and Northwest (17.6%). This extreme disparity between the best performing submarkets and the poorest performing submarkets is based on demand and the quality of the product available. By class, Class A continues to outperform other classes with a low vacancy rate of 5.3 percent. The vacancy rate for Class B buildings is 13.9 percent followed by Class C buildings at 22.6 percent. It should be noted that equilibrium within the market occurs when the vacancy rates are between percent and is defined where market conditions do not favor tenants or owners. Given that so many of the superior buildings are now occupied, the Omaha office market definitely now favors Landlord s which have well maintained and conveniently located properties. $20 $15 Q2 14 Class A Q4 14 Class B Annual Absorption (in Thousands) $350 $250 $150 $50 $-50 $-150 (137,933) ,788 62, ,651 Q , ,762 Q , The largest single transaction for the quarter was Pacific Life s relocation from the 1200 Landmark Building to its new build-tosuit in Aksarben Village consisting of 102,780 square feet. Other 2 Omaha Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Office Colliers International

3 large transactions for the quarter include Nebraska Realty (formerly Deeb Real Estate) move into approximately 30,000 square feet at West Dodge Pointe. Other major transactions include the Fusion Staffing leasing 27,910 square feet in North Park I, Marcotte Insurance leasing 16,111 square feet in the 94 Dodge Street Building, Innovation Financial Systems purchasing the 20,000-square-foot building located at 4020 South 147th Street, Tagge Rutherford and BP each leasing approximately 9,850 square feet at West Dodge Road, and Jelecos leasing 9,400 square feet at 1010 North 96th Street. While larger transactions continue to drive the scope of absorption within the office market as it has for the last five years, there were also a number of smaller transactions completed during the quarter which accelerated the velocity of the market. There were 25 transactions of 2,000 square feet or greater completed in the quarter which is the historical 10-year average within this square foot range per quarter. Asking rental rates are up approximately 1 percent over the prior quarter. Regarding new vacancy, there were two noteworthy move-outs. The largest was Pacific Life vacating 58,143 square feet at the 1200 Landmark Building as a result of their relocation to Aksarben Village. Hewlett Packard vacated 47,085 square feet at the Farnam Executive Center as it reduced its Omaha workforce. The Omaha and Nebraska economies as a whole remain strong. Nebraska has the second lowest unemployment rate in the country which was 2.9 percent at the end of December, a 40 basis point decrease from the same time last year. The latest unemployment rate for the Omaha MSA was also 3.0 percent at the end of December. As a result of the area and state s strong economic data, Forbes Magazine ranked Nebraska third in the nation on its list of Best States for Business, an all-time high in Nebraska s ranking. Nebraska was also ranked ninth in the nation on its overall business climate according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation. And Omaha received national television exposure when it achieved an all-time record for attendance in hosting the NCAA Woman s Volleyball Championships. Beyond the office market, there are several high-profile developments or re-developments all over the Omaha MSA. Such projects include Google s $1 billion dollar data center expansion, StratCom s new HQ facility at Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska Medicine s $350 million Fred and Pamela Buffett Cancer Center and their new surgical center, and the Madonna Rehabilitation Hospital at West Village Pointe. Looking forward, one cannot lose sight of those external factors which could impact the nation and more specifically Omaha s economy and the office market. Omaha is a rich energy hub, and there have been over one-quarter of a million jobs lost in the energy sector nationally in the last 9 months. The Chinese economy has cooled dramatically and these two components of the world economy have been the fuel for the nation s stock indexes to retreat 15 percent in the last six weeks. Construction costs have increased almost 30 percent over the past year. Uncertainty of a reversal of these trends may contribute to reduced consumer spending. And even though the job recovery in the area has been robust, the growth of wages has not followed. While it is important to understand the world economy and its potential impact on Omaha, the Omaha Office Market is demonstrating tremendous strength. There are currently several companies in the market for 50,000 square feet or more. The lack of Class A space may require additional build-to-suits to fill this demand. In 2016, it is expected that absorption will continue to be positive, vacancy rates will be stable, asking rents will increase due to the lack of superior properties in each office class, and speculative construction will be minimal. In conclusion, 2016 should be approached with cautious optimism. National Office Picture On a national basis, Reis, an independent research commercial real estate firm, reported leasing of office space during the fourth quarter occurred at the fastest pace since the economic downturn in 2009 after years of sluggish growth nationally. Employers added 15.3 million square feet of office space in the fourth quarter, more than any quarter since the third quarter of That pushed the national vacancy rates down 16.3 percent or twenty basis points from where it stood at the end of the third quarter and down 50 basis points from a year ago at 16.8 percent and 130 basis points below its high of 17.6 percent at its peak in For all of 2015, employers occupied an additional 42.4 million square feet up from 31.4 million square feet in Demand is really starting to ramp up, Ryan Severino, senior economist at Reis stated. Driving much of the growth has been the tech sector in markets such as the Silicon Valley, San Francisco, Seattle and Austin. In Seattle, rents grew by 8.1 percent during 2015 and in San Francisco and the Silicon Valley, rents increased by 6.1 percent and 6.0 percent respectively for the year. On the other end of the spectrum is the energy sector. Low oil prices are taking a toll on the Houston area where vacancy rates rose to 15.6 percent from 14.5 percent a year earlier and the vacancy rates in the area are predicted to increase further. The nation s lowest vacancy rate in fourth quarter was recorded in San Francisco (6.3%). It is expected the compaction of vacancy rates will accelerate in the next 12 months. Net effective 3 Omaha Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Office Colliers International

4 rents nationally increased 3.0 percent over the prior year which is a good sign that the national office market is stabilizing. Asking rents in New York City and in most parts of the San Francisco CBD now exceed $70 per square foot on average. The national unemployment rate at the end of the fourth quarter was 5.0 percent, down 10 basis point from the end of the prior quarter and 60 basis points at the end of The fourth quarter was the best three-month stretch of job creation since For all of 2015, the economy added an average of 221,000 jobs per month. That is a slowdown from the 260,000 averaged in 2014, but still the second best year since Hourly average earnings only increased a modest 2.5 percent in Employment increased in professional and business services, technology, health care, financial activities, and construction. Manufacturing, a sector feeling the brunt of an export slowdown tied to a stronger dollar, added 30,000 jobs in 2015 after adding more than 215,000 jobs in The largest decreases in employment were in transportation and the energy sectors. Office Investment Picture Sales of office properties are up 2.7 percent nationally through November of 2015 over the same period in 2014 according to Real Capital Analytics. They had been up as much as 28 percent through August; however the financial market turmoil spilled over to financing costs for fixed rate loans and activity diminished. Activity throughout 2015 has been driven by portfolio and entity transactions as opposed to single asset sales. Average national cap rates stand at 5.7 percent for CBD assets and 7.1 percent for Suburban assets. National overall cap rates stood at 6.8 percent at the end of November The largest transaction for the quarter was the sale of the 707,000-square-foot 500 Boylston Street Building in Boston, MA, for $755 million ($1, per square foot). The largest transaction of the quarter in Omaha was the sale of the 220,526-square-foot North Park 3 & 6 to Caprocq Core Real Estate for $13,800,000 or $62.58 per square foot. 4 Omaha Research & Forecast Report Fourth Quarter 2015 Office Colliers International

5 Market Overview Omaha - Office Overview (Does not include owner occupied or medical-use buildings) VACANCY ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTS Total Vacancy Vacancy Net Absorption Construction Deliveries Under Const Asking Rent Submarket SF SF % Q4 SF 2015 SF Q4 YTD SF Class A Class B CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT DOWNTOWN 4,841, , % (47,258) 137, $21.66 $16.13 CBD TOTAL 4,841, , % (47,258) 137, $21.66 $16.13 SUBURBAN CENTRAL W DODGE 2,407, , % (22,417) (12, $24.45 $19.86 MIDTOWN 2,043, , % 107,327 77, , , ,350 $29.43 $18.83 MIRACLE HILLS 773,728 25, % 2,500 37, $20.50 $20.40 NORTHEAST 179,116 21, % (162) (179) NORTHWEST 1,662, , % 19,333 72, $21.10 OLD MILL 1,197, , % (36,217) (8,932) $18.52 REGENCY 1,023,144 74, % 2, $33.25 $22.76 SOUTH CENTRAL 2,423, , % (9,702) (98,733) $26.68 $18.74 SOUTHEAST 1,027, , % 825 (3,231) ,785 - $20.56 SOUTHWEST 1,355, , % 2,440 21, ,967 $21.65 $19.31 SUBURBAN WEST DODGE 2,334,847 75, % 62, ,937 76,997 76, ,016 $28.58 $19.87 SUB TOTALS 16,428,883 2,212, % 128, , , , ,118 $26.91 $19.65 TOTALS 21,270,522 2,700, % 80, , , , ,718 $25.81 $19.53 BY CLASS Inventory Vacancy Net Absorption Construction Deliveries Under Const Available for Sublease SF SF % Q4 SF YTD Q4 YTD SF CBD Suburban CLASS A 6,708, , % 77,185 82, , , ,933 10,862 29,379 CLASS B 10,884,928 1,511, % 14, ,310 47,592 47,592 21,785-30,027 CLASS C 3,676, , % (10,246) 32, ,973 TOTALS 21,270,522 2,700, % 80, , , , ,718 10,862 73,379 Recent Transactions - LEASE AND SALE ACTIVITY Lessee/Buyer Lessor/Seller Property Size SF/Sale Price Marcotte Insurance Agency, Inc. Omaha-Park/Lund Rorick LLC 9394 West Dodge Road 16,111 SF Q2 Software, Inc. Project Oscar, LLC 601 P Street, Lincoln, NE 20,200 SF Holmes Murphy & Associates, LLC Zurich American Insurance Company FNB Parkway 13,664 SF NRG Media, LLC - Omaha 5011 Building 5011 Capitol Avenue 16,785 SF Berkshire Hathaway Homestate Insurance Douglas Building, LLC 1314 Douglas Street 138,352 SF Caprocq Core Real Estate Wells Fargo Bank, Trustee/Situs Holdings North Park Buildings 3 & 6 220,526/$13.8 M 5 Omaha Research & Forecast Report Third Quarter 2015 Office Colliers International

6 502 offices in 67 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 31 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 199 EMEA: 108 MARKET CONTACT: Melissa Torrez Director of Market Research Omaha melissa.torrez@colliers.com CONTRIBUTORS: Barry Zoob Senior Vice President Mike Potthoff Vice President CONTACT US: Colliers International Omaha 6464 Center Street, Suite 200 Omaha, Nebraska USA $2.3 billion in annual revenue 1.7 billion square feet under management 16,300 professionals and staff About Colliers International Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIG) is a global leader in commercial real estate services with more than 16,300 professionals operating from 502 offices in 67 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant insider ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include brokerage, global corporate solutions, investment sales and capital markets, project management and workplace solutions, property and asset management, consulting, valuation and appraisal services, and customized research and thought leadership. Colliers International has been ranked among the top 100 outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing for 10 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. colliers.com Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.