Óbuda University Power System Department. The wind. Dr. Péter Kádár Óbuda University, Power System Department, Hungary

Transcription

1 The wind Dr. Péter Kádár,, Hungary

2 Draft Wind basics Drivers of the wind energy application The energy of the wind Dynamic simulation Wind forecast Wind basics - Patra,

3 The wind forms the surface Wind basics - Patra,

4 The wind blows our hair Wind basics - Patra,

5 The wind brakes the signes Wind basics - Patra,

6 The wind moves the sailboats Wind basics - Patra,

7 The wind destroys the forests Wind basics - Patra,

8 The wind forwards the snow Wind basics - Patra,

9 The wind blows the flag Wind basics - Patra,

10 The wind lifts our kite Wind basics - Patra,

11 The wind dries our cloths Wind basics - Patra,

12 And the wind bends the trees Wind basics - Patra,

13 And the wind turns our propeller Wind basics - Patra,

14 but nobody can see it! Wind basics - Patra,

15 Windrose Wind basics - Patra,

16 Windrose Wind basics - Patra,

17 Mérések darabszáma Wind turbine and measurement system anemometer 1 nap szélirány-időtartamai (perc) NYÉNY ÉNY ÉÉNY ÉSZAK ÉÉK ÉK KÉK NYUGAT NYDNY 0 KELET KDK DNY DDNY DÉL DDK DK Eloszlás sűrűségfüggvény ,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 5,5 6 szélsebesség m/s Wind basics - Patra,

18 Measurements Wind basics - Patra,

19 Simple windrose 1 nap szélirány-időtartamai (perc) ÉÉNY ÉNY NYÉNY NYUGAT ÉSZAK ÉÉK ÉK KÉK KELET NYDNY DNY DDNY DÉL DDK DK KDK Wind basics - Patra,

20 Speed-Weighted windrose Direction? Average speed? Energy? Átlagos szélsebesség súlyozva ÉSZAK ÉÉNY ÉÉK ÉNY 150 ÉK NYÉNY NYUGAT KÉK KELET NYDNY KDK DNY DK DDNY DÉL DDK Wind basics - Patra,

21 Main winter directions Wind basics - Patra,

22 Main yearly directions Wind basics - Patra,

23 Wind (speed) map for 10 m heights Wind basics - Patra,

24 Wind (speed) map for 75 m height Wind basics - Patra,

25 m/s Daily wind course in diff. heights A szélsebesség átlagos napi menete különböző magasságokban Szeged, SODAR óra 30 m 45 m 60 m 75 m 90 m 105 m 120 m 135 m 150 m Wind basics - Patra,

26 Upscaling Measurements or calculations on different heights Upscaling continuous formula to define the windspeed in other heights e.g. Hellmann equation Wind basics - Patra,

27 Local wind profile 375 É 350 Tengerszint feletti magasság [m] m s -1 5 m s -1 4 m s -1 3 m s -1 Hegyhátsál 375 Tengerszint feletti magasság [m] m s -1 5 m s -1 4 m s -1 3 m s -1 Hegyhátsál NY Távolság [km] Wind basics - Patra,

28 Global windforecast services Wind basics - Patra,

29 Wind basics - Patra,

30 On-line: Wind basics - Patra,

31 Historical data ( Wind basics - Patra,

32 Global models Supercomputing 27 km -> 2,5 km cubes Differential equations system But Different measurement points Different application points Forecast Application measurement Terrestrial forms Wind basics - Patra,

33 Professional services Numerical weather forecasts Horizontal and vertical interpolation Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program + PARK modell Statistical elements Meteorological models (e.g. ALADIN, MEANDER), other sources (ECMWF, MM5, HIRLAM, stb.) Result presentation by heights or by isobar? Wind basics - Patra,

34 Statistical approach Wind basics - Patra,

35 Weibull distribution Wind basics - Patra,

36 Local direction changes Wind basics - Patra,

37 Local speed changes Speed changes + direction changes = turbulence Wind basics - Patra,

38 m/s és rad Turbulencies A szélirány és -nagyság percenkénti változása (turbulencia) 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00-1,00-2,00-3, perc Szélsebesség változás (m/s) Szélirány változás (rad) Wind basics - Patra,

39 Local wind speed tower measurements in a wind park, during 4 min, in the range 6-10 m/s (data from: Mov-R H1 Szélerőmű Kft., Hungary) Wind basics - Patra,

40 Local wind speed tower measurements in a wind park, during 4 min, in the range 3-6 m/s (data from: Mov-R H1 Szélerőmű Kft., Hungary) Wind basics - Patra,

41 Local wind speed tower measurements in a wind park, during 4 min, over 10 m/s (data from: Mov-R H1 Szélerőmű Kft., Hungary) Wind basics - Patra,

42 Spread over of the wind energy application Wind basics - Patra,

43 Fig.Global cumulative installed wind capacity Global Wind Energy Council 2010 (GWEC) Wind basics - Patra, 2012 MW 43

44 MW Windpower capacity in Europe, 2006, MW Forrás: Wind basics - Patra,

45 Wind energy application in Europe Wind basics - Patra, 2012 EWEA,

46 Yearly built in wind capacities in Europe MW onshore 582MW offshore Wind basics - Patra, 2012 EWEA,

47 Repowering Wind basics - Patra,

48 Some drivers of the windenergy business Growing demand for electricity EU directives Subventions Sustainability Reduction of CO 2 emisson Green investment boom (ROI 4-5 years) Employment, etc. Wind basics - Patra,

49 Catching the wind energy Wind basics - Patra,

50 Simple energy modells 1. Tube model v - speed, V - volume do not changes P pressure, T temperature decreeases 2. Deccelerating mass v - speed, V - volume decreases P pressure, T temperature do not changes Reality: v, V, P, T - changes Wind basics - Patra,

51 Power of the wind (moving mass model) P = 0,5 ρ A v 3 η where P = mechanical (~electrical) power of the wind turbine, ρ = 1,29 kg/nm 3 density of the air, A = r2 π = d2 π / 4 area swept by the rotor blades (r is the length of the blade, d = 2 r diameter of the rotor), v = wind speed, η = efficiency of the rotor (theoretical max. is 60 %, practically % ). Wind basics - Patra,

52 Obstacle and the flowing air a - turbulent b - laminal c turbulent (stall) Wind basics - Patra,

53 The possible energy conversion Fix bladed rotor TipSpeedRatio: v blade edge / v air 100 %? no Wind basics - Patra,

54 Different rotors and blades P vs wind speed Different rpm Wind basics - Patra,

55 Practical characteristics of wind turbine with control Electronic control of Rotor speed Pitch Wind basics - Patra,

56 Factory characteristics Wind basics - Patra,

57 Kimenő teljesítmény (kw) Typical characteristics Szélturbina karakterisztikák V-90-2MW MM82 G90 V MW E-48 MD77 E Szélsebesség (m/s) Wind basics - Patra,

58 Performance measurements Wind basics - Patra,

59 Dynamic simulation Wind basics - Patra,

60 Simulation logic Basic questions: What happened if No yearly averages but Real wind measurements + Defined wind park locations + Wind turbine characteristics Result: MW curve during a long period (a year) Wind basics - Patra,

61 Investigated places, parks Wind basics - Patra,

62 Gyakoriság Frequency of the output changes Szélfarmok összesített kimenő teljesítmény-változásának gyakorisága (10 perces) 30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% Teljesítmény változás 10 percenként Wind basics - Patra,

63 MWh Average wind speed vs monthly production Havi szélsebesség átlag, és havi megtermelt energia kapcsolata 30000, , , , ,00 Agárd Folyás Győr Moson Túrkeve 5000,00 0,00 1,50 2,50 3,50 4,50 5,50 6,50 7,50 m/s Wind basics - Patra,

64 84% 80% 76% 72% 68% 64% 60% 56% 52% 48% 44% 40% 36% 32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Gyakoriság Daily energy production vs built in capacity A napi átlagteljesítmény gyakorisága a beépített teljesítményre vonatkoztatva 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% Beépített teljesítmény %-a Wind basics - Patra,

65 MWh Monthly energy production Havonta megtermelt energia Január Február Március Április Május Június Július Augusztus Szeptember Október November December Hónap Wind basics - Patra,

66 0:00:00 1:40:00 3:20:00 5:00:00 6:40:00 8:20:00 10:00:00 11:40:00 13:20:00 15:00:00 16:40:00 18:20:00 20:00:00 21:40:00 23:20:00 1:00:00 2:40:00 4:20:00 6:00:00 7:40:00 9:20:00 11:00:00 12:40:00 14:20:00 16:00:00 17:40:00 19:20:00 21:00:00 22:40:00 0:20:00 2:00:00 3:40:00 5:20:00 7:00:00 8:40:00 10:20:00 12:00:00 13:40:00 15:20:00 17:00:00 18:40:00 20:20:00 22:00:00 23:40:00 kw Small wind Kimenő teljesítmény a minimális energiatermelésű napon (és előtte/utána 1 nappal) Túrkeve Moson Győr Folyás Agárd Idő Wind basics - Patra,

67 0:00:00 1:40:00 3:20:00 5:00:00 6:40:00 8:20:00 10:00:00 11:40:00 13:20:00 15:00:00 16:40:00 18:20:00 20:00:00 21:40:00 23:20:00 1:00:00 2:40:00 4:20:00 6:00:00 7:40:00 9:20:00 11:00:00 12:40:00 14:20:00 16:00:00 17:40:00 19:20:00 21:00:00 22:40:00 0:20:00 2:00:00 3:40:00 5:20:00 7:00:00 8:40:00 10:20:00 12:00:00 13:40:00 15:20:00 17:00:00 18:40:00 20:20:00 22:00:00 23:40:00 kw Large wind Kimenő teljesítmény a maximális energiatermelésű (és átlagteljesítményű) napon (és előtte/utána 1 nappal) Túrkeve Moson Győr Folyás Agárd Idő Wind basics - Patra,

68 kw kw Meteorological front in and out Kimenő teljesítmény a front megérkezésekor Kimenő teljesítmény a front elvonulásakor Túrkeve Moson Győr Folyás Agárd Túrkeve Moson Győr Folyás Agárd :00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:00 23:30:00 0:00:00 Idő 0:30:00 1:00:00 1:30:00 2:00:00 2:30:00 3:00: :00:00 19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:00 Idő 23:30:00 0:00:00 0:30:00 1:00:00 1:30:00 2:00:00 Wind basics - Patra,

69 0:00:00 1:40:00 3:20:00 5:00:00 6:40:00 8:20:00 10:00:00 11:40:00 13:20:00 15:00:00 16:40:00 18:20:00 20:00:00 21:40:00 23:20:00 1:00:00 2:40:00 4:20:00 6:00:00 7:40:00 9:20:00 11:00:00 12:40:00 14:20:00 16:00:00 17:40:00 19:20:00 21:00:00 22:40:00 0:20:00 2:00:00 3:40:00 5:20:00 7:00:00 8:40:00 10:20:00 12:00:00 13:40:00 15:20:00 17:00:00 18:40:00 20:20:00 22:00:00 23:40:00 kw The problematic days Kimenő teljesítmény egy átlagos energiatermelésű napon (és előtte/utána 1 nappal) Túrkeve Moson Győr Folyás Agárd Idő Wind basics - Patra,

70 Correlation analysis of wind measurements Wind basics - Patra,

71 The problem Wind production forecast = wind forecast + turbine caharactereistics There is no exact wind forecast for the wind turbine sites The forecast is crucial for the integration large wind parks into the network The question: Can we forecast the generated energy based on remote wind forecast? Wind basics - Patra,

72 The real task Not in that place Not in that time Not correct wind forecast Forecast Application measurement Terrestrial forms Wind basics - Patra,

73 The factory characteristics In the project we investigate a V-27 turbine at Bükkaranyos and wind measurement ant Folyás meteorological station. The figure shows a typical characteristics of wind turbines (V27). This curve is measured in stationary mode, it does not contain the effect of local turbulences, direction changes and wind speed differences between the upper and lower part of the (spinning) rotor measurements. Wind basics - Patra,

74 Characteristics based on pure measurements? Wind basics - Patra,

75 Correlation? The causes of the lack of correlation are The distance between the wind turbine and wind measurement The local wind turbulences that create difference in the wind blow at the two measurement points. Wind basics - Patra,

76 Other causes: turbulence The local wind turbulences that create difference in the wind blow at the two measurement points. fast (1-6 sec), the medium (1-6 min) and the slow (1-6 hour) changes. The fast and medium wind speed and direction changes are not handled (followed) by the turbine, it causes deviances. Turbine dynamics and measurement errors, etc. Wind speed changes Wind direction changes Wind speed changes measurement on minute scale Wind basics - Patra,

77 Distributional reorganization: a functional transformation An ideal wind speed and power output measurement at the same tower should give the factory characteristics of the wind turbine, the two measurements correlate on the factory curve. If we prepare the cumulative distribution function of both measurements, the previous correlation is still valid and we get the same curve. Wind basics - Patra,

78 Back to the measurements (Bükkaranyos Folyás: 33km) Wind basics - Patra,

79 Characteristics matching Based on the above mentioned, the locally differently running curve is substituted by a globally similarly cumulated distribution function. We investigate not the specific synchronized moments but the same period, so we integrate the power into generated energy. This is an energy based characteristics retrieval. Figure shows characteristics similar to the factory characteristics (marked by dots). Wind basics - Patra,

80 Meaurement distances Name of wind measurement place Distance of the wind turbine Bükkaranyos Folyás Agárd Túrkeve Mosonmagyaróvár Győr 33 km 187 km 98 km 263 km 238 km Wind basics - Patra,

81 Wind power generation forecast See WinDemo! Wind basics - Patra,

82 Wind power generation forecast Rough: Windspeed Charactereistic Fine + temperature + pressure + humidity + direction CORRELATION FACTOR! Wind basics - Patra,

83 Upscaling The previously shown remote upscaling factor is defined by the energy production of a time period. Applying the Hellmann equation (1) for the same tower (height 33 m, measurements height 10 m), the exponent is 0,445, that is a good experimental result. Wind basics - Patra,

84 Remote scaling Wind basics - Patra,

85 Conclusion It is not possible to retrieve the vendor given stationary winds speed generation characteristics of the wind turbine based on the real-time measurements. The calculations above show that for real-time generation forecast purposes only close measurement/estimation points could be used. The wind forecasts work on worldwide global models, these are theoretically not capable of forecasting local turbulences which cause the 0,5-5 min deviations in the power output. In spite of this fact, based on further measurements quite good energy production estimations can be done. We used the cumulative distribution function to define the ratio between remote wind speed measurement and the possible local wind speed at the turbine. Wind basics - Patra,

86 Thanks for the attention! Wind basics - Patra,