QMB Business Analytics CRN Fall 2015 W 6:30-9:15 PM -- Lutgert Hall 2209

Transcription

1 QMB Business Analytics CRN Fall 2015 W 6:30-9:15 PM -- Lutgert Hall 2209 Rajesh Srivastava, Ph.D. Professor and Chair, Department of Information Systems and Operations Management Lutgert College of Business Room 3355 Phone: (239) Fax: (239) rsrivast@fgcu.edu Office Hours T: 3:00-6:00 PM & W: 3:00-6:00 PM, other times by appointment About the Course The course is an introduction to Business Analytics. It covers managerial statistical tools in descriptive analytics and predictive analytics, including regression. Other topics covered include forecasting, risk analysis, simulation, and data mining, and decision analysis. This course provides students with the fundamental concepts and tools needed to understand the emerging role of business analytics in organizations and shows students how to apply basic business analytics tools in a spreadsheet environment, and how to communicate with analytics professionals to effectively use and interpret analytic models and results for making better business decision. Emphasis is placed on applications, concepts and interpretation of results, rather than theory and calculations. Students use a computer software package for data analysis. Learning Objectives Select, understand and apply appropriate analytical tools in the analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of business scenarios. Use software package for data analysis; understand data gathering and input considerations; and be able to analyze and interpret output (graphs, tables, mathematical models, etc.) Know considerations in collecting data and selection of appropriate analysis tools; and know how to report results in a fair, objective and unbiased manner. Assignments Business Analytics involves "learning by doing" course assignments (4 assignments and 1 project). Assignment 1 is about course expectations. Based on what you have learned from the Syllabus, log on to Canvas and answer the following questions in a short paragraph: What do you hope to gain from this course? Is there a topic you would like to know more about? 1

2 Assignment 1 is mandatory and must be completed by all students. Failure to complete assignment 1 will lead to a loss of 10 points on your first exam. The other remaining assignments involve the analysis of problems and/or cases from the textbook. Students are encouraged to submit their analysis or questions to the instructor with sufficient time for review and feedback. The analysis for all cases will be done using Microsoft Excel with the assistance of Frontline Systems Risk Solver Platform and XLMiner. Our computer lab has the required software for class instruction but, to complete assignments you may need a personal copy installed in your personal computer which can be downloaded from Frontline Systems website. See required Course Material below. Pay attention to the organization and quality of your work file, poor organization and/or poor quality may reduce your overall grade. NO LATE ASSIGNMENT WILL BE ACCEPTED. It is your responsibility to submit the document on or before the due date. Exams There will be 5 exams (4 midterm exams and 1 final). The exams are based on the assignments and related material/chapters covered in the course. Midterm exams 1 and 3 are theoretical in nature (closed book, multiple choice type questions). Midterm exams 2 and 4 are practical applications based on building and interpreting models with the assistance of computer and software (open book, notes). The final is composed of theory and application. NO MAKEUP EXAMS will be given. Only the following reasons will be considered if you miss an exam: armed services requirement, extreme health situation, jury duty, and loss of a family member. Any exam that is missed without an appropriate documentation will automatically receive a score of zero. Class Format, Policies, and Student Participation Attendance in all classes is expected but not considered into your grade. Organize your professional and personal affairs to allow for attendance in every class session. You are responsible for all announcements and assignments made in class by your instructor. Poor attendance is correlated with lower performance in the course and I do pass around a class attendance sign-up sheet. So it is of your interest to attend all classes. Since we will not spend class time addressing all topics and problems surveyed in your text, use your notes as a 'guide' in preparing for the exam; text material not covered in class but descriptive in nature or closely related to lecture material will be appropriate for exam purposes. Classes meet once a week for 165 minutes. The class policies listed below is intended to give you a behavioral framework in which you can build your own personal learning objectives for this course. 1. You are expected to have completed the assigned reading for the day. 2. Assignments are individual effort. 2

3 3. Your professionalism, integrity, and academic success are at stake if you fail to submit work on time. 4. Keep cell phones turned off (or on silent) when in class and do not use computers in the lab for navigating the internet or downloading s. Grades When preparing your assignments pay attention to the content, cleanliness, and organization of the document. They all contribute to your grade. The final grade is computed as a percentage of the total points earned in 4 assignments (10% weight), 1 project (5% weight) and 5 exams (85% weight). Letter grades will be assigned based on the following criteria as a percentage of total points: 94 and above: A 90 to less than 93: A- 87 to less than 90: B+ 82 to less than 87: B 80 to less than 82: B- 75 to less than 80: C+ 70 to less than 75: C 65 to less than 70: D+ 60 to less than 65: D below 60: F An incomplete grade will be given by exception when a limited portion of the course material has not been completed by the last exam due date, in accordance with University policy published in the Catalog. The instructor on an individual basis will review each case. Required Course Material: A. Textbook: Business Analytics by James R. Evans, 2 nd edition, Publisher: Pearson ISBN-13: B. Access the companion website to download to important course resources (data files) used in class instructions Companion website at: C. Software: Microsoft Excel and Frontline System s Risk Solver Platform and XLMiner (student version) 3

4 Follow these instructions to download and install Frontline System s Risk Solver Platform and XLMiner (student version) IMPORTANT NOTES!!!: DO NOT register as Students on This URL is intended for large companies. Most mistakes occur when students do not have or fail to enter the Course Code and Textbook Code (given below). This results in confusion and lost time, which you can mitigate or avoid by following the proper sequence of instructions below. Students must register, download, run SolverSetup, and enter a password and license activation code. The password and activation code are sent to you by . This is all very simple to do, if you read and follow the instructions. Yet when courses are starting up, the software company is handling hundreds of support tickets per day, repairing situations for students who just haven t read the instructions, or have read them, but decided to do something else. This will delay your start and impact your performance in the course. The instructor is not responsible for the proper setup of the software. Make sure you follow these instructions correctly and in advance of the start of the course. The software DOES NOT run under any Excel version for Mac. There is a commercial Premium Solver Platform for Mac, but the company does NOT offer it for academic or textbook use, and it will NOT support students attempting to use it (unless they buy a license for $2,000). Preparation: 1. If you have a Mac, visit and read To use the software for this course, you ll need to install Windows alongside Mac OSX, and install Excel or Office for Windows. This will also allow you to use other Windows software, as well as Mac software on your machine. 2. Check whether you have 32-bit or 64-bit Excel this determines which software version you should download. You probably have 32-bit Excel. You have 64-bit ONLY if (i) in Excel 2010, you click File Help, and you see 64-bit in the lower right, or (ii) in Excel 2013, you click File Account About Excel, and you see 64-bit at the top of the dialog. Registration: 1. Point your browser to (Do not attempt to register or download anywhere else on Solver.com this will cause troubles later.) 4

5 2. Fill out the form on this page. Enter your address (to ensure you receive your license activation code), enter a login password you can remember, enter your first and last name, and Florida Gulf Coast University for your school. 3. Enter EBA for the Textbook Code and QMB3302F15 for the Course Code. These are special for our course entering these will give you a 140-day license. (Leaving them blank will give you a 15-day license.) 4. Check the box to acknowledge that you accept the Frontline Systems license agreement. Note: Frontline receives no money from you, or the textbook publisher, or the university; this free 140-day license is a courtesy that they offer to students. 5. Click the button Proceed to Download Page. If everything is OK, this will take you to the Download page. Download: 1. On the Download page, change 32-bit to 64-bit ONLY if you ve confirmed that you have 64-bit Excel (see above). Click the blue Download Now button. 2. In some browsers you will see a dialog "Do you want to run or save this file?" Click Save to save the file, named either SolverSetup.exe or SolverSetup64.exe. 3. Now check your , at the address you entered above, for a message containing an installation password and a license activation code. Frontline sends this twice, from different servers, to ensure that you receive it. If you don t get it, visit and login to request another message. Installation: 1. Make sure that Excel is closed (not running), then run the program SolverSetup.exe (or SolverSetup64.exe). SolverSetup will prompt you to enter the password and activation code from the message above enter them exactly as shown in the (you can copy and paste). 2. The SolverSetup program will prompt you to choose between Analytic Solver Platform, Risk Solver Platform and XLMiner. Choosing Analytic Solver Platform gives you all the features of Risk Solver Platform and XLMiner, so this is usually the best choice. You can CHANGE this choice later in Excel, by choosing a menu option Help Change Product on the Ribbon. 3. When the SolverSetup program finishes, start Excel (the last Setup dialog prompts you to do this). You should see new tabs on the Ribbon for Analytic Solver Platform or Risk Solver Platform, and XLMiner. Click the Solver Platform tab you should see a 5

6 Welcome dialog with various links. Use the Help dropdown menu to open Help text, the User Guide and Reference Guide, and load example workbooks. If all has gone well, you re ready for our class exercises. If you have problems, the best avenues to get help are to (this creates a support ticket in Frontline s Help Desk) or start a Live Chat from any page on or from within Excel (Help Support Live Chat). D. Optional: There are several helpful web tutorials, example models, and YouTube channel which could be useful to students through the course E. Optional: You may also want to read a good book about how companies are using what we cover in this course to gain a competitive edge in the business world: Competing on Analytics - The New Science of Winning (Hardcover) by Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris, Harvard Business School Press. Class Schedule The Schedule provides a map of the course. The schedule is organized by Week Number and Week Start Date so you can organize and plan your studies accordingly. The critical item to remember is that project assignment and exam due dates cannot be delayed. (see schedule posted on next page) 6

7 Week Topic Description number and date 1 8/19 Chapter 1 Course overview Introduction to Analytics and Excel Decision Models Problem Solving and Decision Making Spreadsheet Add-ins for Business Analytics Software requirement: Solver Platform 2 8/26 Chapter 4 Review Online material: instructional videos in Descriptive Measures: D-1, D-2, D-3, and D-4 In-class applications: Descriptive Statistical Measures (Chap. 4): Populations and Samples Measures of Location, Dispersion and Shape Measures of Association Excel functions Chapter 5 Review online instructional videos in probability distribution: Dist-1 In-class review: probability distribution and applications (Chap. 5) Random variable and probability distribution Continuous and discrete distributions Random Sampling Due: Assignment 1 8/25: Course expectations (upload to Canvas drop box) Assignment 2 handout Last day to drop 8/25 (100% refund) 3 9/2 Chapter 6 Review online material: Sampling and estimation: confidence-r1 In class applications: Sampling and estimation (Chap 6) Estimating population parameters Sampling error (margin of error) Confidence interval for decision making 4 9/9 Chapter 7 Review online material: Hypothesis Testing HT-1s, HT-2s Optional: Download (in Canvas Files) PowerPoint slides (PP-1s, PP2s) In class applications: Statistical inference (Chap 7) Hypothesis Testing One-Sample Hypothesis Tests Two-Sample Hypothesis Tests ANOVA 7

8 5 9/16 Chapter 7 In class applications: Statistical inference Hypothesis Testing One-Sample Hypothesis Tests Two-Sample Hypothesis Tests ANOVA 6 9/23 Exam week EXAMS 1&2 (theory & practice) Due: Assignment 2 7 9/30 Chapter 8 Regression Analysis Simple Linear Regression Evaluating Good Regression Models Assignment 3 handout 8 10/7 Chapter 8 Regression Analysis Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Building Good Regression Models Regression with Categorical Independent Variables 9 10/14 Chapter 8 Regression Analysis (Chap 8) Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Building Good Regression Models Regression with Categorical Independent Variables Chapter 9 Forecasting (Chap 9) Forecasting Techniques Qualitative and Judgmental Forecasting Forecasting Models for Time Series with a Linear Trend Forecasting Time Series with Seasonality Measures of Forecasting Accuracy 10 10/21 Chapter 9 Forecasting (Chap 9) Forecasting Techniques Qualitative and Judgmental Forecasting Forecasting Models for Time Series with a Linear Trend Forecasting Time Series with Seasonality Measures of Forecasting Accuracy 11 10/28 Exam week Exam 3&4: (theory and practice) Due: Assignment 3 8

9 12 11/4 Chapter 10 Introduction to data mining The Scope of Data Mining Data Exploration and Reduction Classification Techniques Association Rule Mining Assignment 4 handout Last day to drop w/o penalty (11/3) 13 11/11 Chapter 10 Introduction to data mining The Scope of Data Mining Data Exploration and Reduction Classification Techniques Association Rule Mining 14 11/18 Chapter 11 Spreadsheet modeling and analysis Implementing models on spreadsheets Applications in business analytics Developing user-friendly applications Sensitivity analysis using Excel native functions 15 11/25 11/26 Thanksgiving day (no classes) 16 12/2 Chapter 12 Simulation and Risk Analysis: In-class applications (the outsourcing model, the profit model) Simulation and Risk Analysis Spreadsheet Models with Random Variables Monte Carlo Simulation Using Risk Solver Due: Assignment /09 Final exam week Final Exam 12/09, 5:45 8:00 pm, LH 2209 Florida Gulf Coast University, in accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act and the university s guiding principles, will provide classroom and academic accommodations to students with documented disabilities. If you need to request an accommodation in this class due to a disability, or you suspect that your academic performance is affected by a disability, please see me or contact the Office of Adaptive Services. The Office of Adaptive Services is located in the Wellness Building. The phone number is or Video Phone (VP) In addition to classroom and campus accommodations, individuals with disabilities are encouraged to create their personal emergency evacuation plan and FGCU is committed to providing information on emergency notification procedures. You can find information on the emergency exits and Areas of Rescue Assistance for each building, as well as other emergency preparedness materials on the Environmental Health and Safety and University Police Department websites. If you will need assistance in the event of an emergency due to a disability, please contact Adaptive Services for available services and information. 9

10 Additional assistance: The Center for Academic Achievement (CAA) offers academic support services for any FGCU student. The services are at no extra charge to students and include: peer tutoring, Supplemental Instruction, Student Success Workshops, and individualized academic coaching. If you would like to participate in or learn more about these services, please visit the CAA in Library 103. You may also the CAA at or call at (239) The CAA website is * This is a planned course structure and may change if necessary to meet learning goals 10