Corporate funding monitor: The changing face of fi nance. January

Transcription

1 Corporate funding monitor: The changing face of fi nance January 214

2 2 The Allen & Overy Corporate Funding Monitor looks at loan, bond and equity issues to non-financial corporates over the past decade to see what impact regulatory pressures, bank deleveraging and the emergence of alternative sources of finance have had on the way companies access funding. The data is taken from Thomson Reuters and excludes funding to financial and real estate companies.

3 3 Corporates embrace funding diversity global corporate funding by source (USDm) 4,, 4, Loans Bonds Equity 3, 4,, 3,, 3, 2, 3,, 2, 1, 1, Following 1,years of volatility and uncertainty, the financial markets appear to be stabilising. What s now clear, as the dust settles from the financial crisis, is that a structural shift 1, has taken place in the way that corporates access finance. Unable to rely exclusively on banks after the crisis, treasurers have become used to capital market funding and are enjoying the benefits of greater diversification, both in 9, terms of flexibility and cost. And banks are reshaping themselves to work symbiotically with funds and other capital market players. If there is one clear global trend over the past ten years, it is the steady growth in bond financing everywhere. The value of bonds issued globally (excluding financial 3, institutions and real estate companies) has nearly tripled in the past decade, rising from USD585 billion in to USD1.7 trillion in 213. In the three years before the crisis, bonds accounted for 18% of the funding mix between loans, bonds and equity issues. In the three years since 211, they have averaged 29%. However, in 213 the picture started to look different in two ways: lending rose around the world, while bond dynamics became more volatile declining in the UK and U.S., while growing more slowly in Europe, for example; and secondly, lending growth was driven by leveraged and non-investment grade loans, while the remaining bond market growth has been driven by high-yield bonds. Back to normality? Despite the enormous volatility during the crisis and a clear shift towards bond financing post-crisis, loans remain the dominant source of funding for corporates globally and are starting to make a come-back. Lending grew 3% in 213, while bonds rose by a far smaller 4%. The pick-up was largely due to growth in leveraged lending which rose 52%, driven by a desire to refinance existing debt at historically low rates and on more favourable terms than have been available since the crisis began. There are also signs that private equity houses may be preparing assets for sale now that levels of confidence have begun to improve.

4 2, 4 1, Transformation of investment grade funding global investment grade financing (USDm) 1, 1, Investment grade loans Investment grade bonds 1, 1, 1, 9, 9, 3, 3, Perhaps the biggest change has happened in the investment grade market, where the relationship between loans and bonds has inverted. In, bond issues by investment grade corporates were worth about half the value of loans. Ten years later, loans are worth about half the value of bonds issued by investment grade corporates globally. Setting the wave of refinancing in 211 aside, this stark change is largely accounted for by the dearth of M&A activity. Acquisition financing from all sources in EMEA in 27, for example, accounted for USD5bn or 29% of proceeds. In 213, it represented just USD52bn one-tenth of the peak level and had fallen to just 6% of the total. While investment grade lending showed signs of growth in the fourth quarter of 213, especially in Europe, there is unlikely to be a return to the pre-crisis status quo. There is little doubt treasurers have become increasingly comfortable with a more diversified funding mix. Even if there is a rebound in M&A and bond issues fall back, bonds are likely to settle at a far higher baseline than has been seen historically. There is a new generation of issuers who have been through the cost and effort associated with a debut bond issue and all its requisite disclosure. Subsequent issues are cheaper and less burdensome as much of the work has already been done. As a result, corporates now have more options. Rather than returning to normality, financing is set to become increasingly more diversified. Symbiosis: a response to the demand for diversity in funding options The lines between loans and bonds are blurring, as companies look to a broader range of finance options to meet their varying needs. These range from private placements, to leveraged finance and high yield bonds, loans from alternative credit providers, securitisation and new forms of bond guarantees and project bonds to supplement traditional forms of finance. The resulting funding mix will be far more variable, driven by a host of external factors, from governments pushing for local sources of capital, to the consequences of regulatory change and the availability of money. Banks are already gearing up for this future, forging symbiotic relationships with funds, selling off portfolios of assets and retooling teams to work as brokers with funds. Far from threatening the banks relationship with clients, the diversification of funding options potentially empowers them to serve customers better. Politicians and the public may be demanding a return to the It s a Wonderful Life model of banking clear, simple and personal. The reality is that modern credit intermediation is complex and must be so to provide sufficient financial depth to drive modern economies.

5 5 U.S. v Europe A long held tenet in finance has been that U.S. financing was typically about 7% bonds and 3% loans, while Europe was the opposite. This data does not support that assumption. In the three years before the credit crunch, loans were the most used source of finance for corporates in the U.S., making up 74% of the mix, compared to 18% for bonds and 8% for equity. Similarly in Europe (excluding the UK) loans accounted for 75%, bonds for 15% and equity for 1%. The structural shift toward bonds since the crisis has been common to both markets, but loans now make up more of the mix in the U.S. than in Europe. In the past three years in the U.S. loans have averaged 68%, bonds 26% and equity issues 6%. In Europe, loans accounted for 6%, bonds 31% and equity 8%. One explanation could be the exclusion of financial institutions and real estate companies from this analysis. Ten years ago financial institutions and real estate companies accessed far more finance (USD4.8tn) than corporates (USD3.1tn) globally. U.S. funding mix pre and post credit crunch 74% 75% 8% 1% 18% 15% Indeed, just the value of bonds issued by financial institutions and real estate companies in (USD3.9tn) was higher than the total value of all corporate financing. That situation has 68% 6% 6% 8% 26% europe funding mix pre and post credit crunch 31% changed dramatically. In 213, over 3% more funding was provided to corporates (USD5.8tn) than to financial institutions and real estate companies (USD4.tn). financial/real estate v corporate (USDm) 8,, 7,, 7,, Corporate FIG plus RE 6,, 6,, 5,, 5,, 4,, 4,, 3,, 3,,

6 6 U.S. corporate funding by source (USDm) 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, Europe (ex UK) corporate funding by source (USDm) 1,4, 1, 1, 4, 1, 4, 25, 4, 4, 25, UK corporate funding by source annual (USDm) 5, 25, 3, 25, , 5, 5,

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