Lesson 11. Analytical Tools. Methods 11-1

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1 Lesson 11 Analytical Tools & Methods 11-1

2 Learning Outcomes Identify analytical tools and methods that are available to support the coordination of transportation and land use Compare the strengths and limitations of the various tools and methods Critique the assumptions underlying the methods Match planning activities with appropriate analytical tools 11-2

3 Lesson 11: Analytical Tools & Methods 11.1 Travel Demand Forecasting Models 11.2 Land Use Allocation Models and Methods 11.3 Scenario Planning Tools 11.4 Other Tools and Methods 11-4

4 Travel Demand Forecasting Models 1,250 households 1,575 jobs Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) Transportation Network 11-5

5 Basic Modeling Steps Urban Activity Trip Generation Trip Distribution Highway and Transit Networks Mode Usage Highway Assignment Transit Assignment 11-7

6 Models in Common Practice CUBE Voyager (Citilabs) also TP+/VIPER, TRANPLAN EMME/2 (INRO) TransCAD (Caliper) VISUM (PTV America) 11-8

7 Micro-Scale Modeling More detailed model structure (subarea modeling) Walk and bike modes in mode choice model Pedestrian Environment Factor (Portland) Extent of sidewalks Ease of street crossings Connectivity of street/sidewalk system Terrain 11-10

8 Lesson 11: Analytical Tools & Methods 11.1 Travel Demand Forecasting Models 11.2 Land Use Allocation Models and Methods 11.3 Scenario Planning Tools 11.4 Other Tools and Methods 11-12

9 Range of Land Use Allocation Methods Qualitative methods Delphi/expert panel approach Simplified and rules-based quantitative models Accessibility-based Proximity-based Complex land use models and integrated models 11-13

10 Expert Panel and Delphi Techniques Qualitative approach based on expert judgment Local planners and economic development officials Local developers and real estate analysts Academics Multi-step feedback Start with independent assessments Allow panel to comment on forecasts and revise their own based on others input 11-14

11 Rules-Based Models Allocate land uses based on factors such as transportation accessibility or proximity, available land, and other measures of development suitability and attractiveness Examples UPLAN What-If Treasure Valley 11-15

12 Rules-Based Method Population & Employment Growth Land Consumption Conversion Factors Land Consumption GIS Allocation to Preferred Growth Areas Map of Future Development Pattern 11-16

13 Complex Land Use Models Operate at regional level Designed to interface with travel demand model Commonly used for baseline projections Example DRAM-EMPAL & successors Generally incorporate transportation accessibility More sophisticated models Examples UrbanSim, MEPLAN, PECAS May incorporate additional land use policy variables, economic underpinning, disaggregate behavior 11-19

14 Lesson 11: Analytical Tools & Methods 11.1 Travel Demand Forecasting Models 11.2 Land Use Allocation Models and Methods 11.3 Scenario Planning Tools 11.4 Other Tools and Methods 11-25

15 Scenario Planning Tools Uses Develop indicators of the impact of development patterns Community Environment Transportation Facilitate land use scenario development Visualize development patterns 11-27

16 Scenario Development Sacramento, CA (PLACE3S model) Source: Sacramento Area Council of Governments 11-28

17 Commonly-Used Scenario Planning Tools Model Community Impact Indicators Land Use Scenario Development Visualization INDEX Mapping Smart Growth INDEX Mapping Paint the Town/ Paint the Region Photos/ simulations PLACE3S Photos/ simulations CommunityViz 3-D/Dynamic CorPlan Photos/ simulations MetroQuest Photos/ simulations What-If? Mapping 11-32

18 Lesson 11: Analytical Tools & Methods 11.1 Travel Demand Forecasting Models 11.2 Land Use Allocation Models and Methods 11.3 Scenario Planning Tools 11.4 Other Tools and Methods 11-35

19 Other Tools and Methods Traffic simulation models Visualization techniques Economic analysis Fiscal impact analysis Infrastructure cost models Environmental models 11-36

20 Traffic Simulation Models - Uses Measure localized impacts of development on traffic congestion Test alternative intersection, corridor, and subarea network designs 11-37

21 Traffic Simulation Models - Uses Can test movements that cannot be analyzed using regional 4-step models 3D animation of movements and queue lengths 11-38

22 Visualization Tools Methods Software Photo-simulation Photoshop 3-D visualization (static and dynamic) Visual preference surveys Sketch-Up VRML/X3D Quick Time ArcView 3D Analyst Site Builder 3D Scenario

23 Traditional Artist Rendering Source: Glatting Jackson 11-40

24 Digital Rendering Source: McCormick Taylor 11-41

25 Data-Driven Rendering Source: McCormick Taylor 11-42

26 3-D Visualization and Animation 3-D models driven by 2-D maps Source: Orton Family Foundation 11-44

27 Additional NHI Training NHI CORSIM Traffic Simulation Model Training 11-49

28 Review Which are conventional travel demand models better suited for analyzing the distribution of regional growth, or analyzing the effects of micro-scale design policies such as the 3Ds? List two ways of better incorporating land use factors into conventional travel demand models List two factors that might make an expert panel an appropriate land use forecasting method What is the primary weakness of most scenario planning tools for forecasting transportation impacts? 11-50

Simulating Traffic for Incident Management and ITS Investment Decisions

1998 TRANSPORTATION CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS 7 Simulating Traffic for Incident Management and ITS Investment Decisions MICHAEL D. ANDERSON AND REGINALD R. SOULEYRETTE UTPS-type models were designed to adequately