INFORMATION SERVICES AZ--SM SMART ART

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Arleen Allison
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1 AZ-SMART Arizona s Socioeconomic Modeling, Analysis and Reporting Tool Box COG/MPO Mini Conference June 22, 2007

2 Current Modeling Process Maricopa County Control Totals DES Demographic Model & Regional Economic Model Sub-Regional Model DRAM/EMPAL (Metropilus) Spatial Distribution Model Small Area Model SAM-IM Small Area Allocation

Sub-Regional Model DRAM/EMPAL (Metropilus) Spatial

3 SAM-IM Subarea Allocation Model Information Manager Totally within GIS implemented using Avenue scripts in ArcView 3 County or sub-county control totals are used Each land use dealt with separately and in any order Different factors influence growth of each land use Grid based -- currently 1 acre Being used at MRCOG, PAG and MAG

Each land use dealt with separately and in any order Different factors influence

4 What is AZ-SMART? A framework for creating, editing and managing software tools Suite of tools to model, analyze, summarize, visualize Applications able to project land use, population, employment, other socioeconomic variables in GIS environment Customizable Scalable system new modules can be added

tools to model, analyze, summarize, visualize Applications able to project

5 Design Principles Incorporates 3 rd party software: generic functionality in ArcGIS and OPUS Common data model approach Models may be different at different installations Ability to share data without massaging Interactive & batch modes Data editing, model validation, visualization Modular and flexible, customizable and scalable ESRI geodatabase: ArcSDE Object oriented programming languages Complete documentation

massaging Interactive & batch modes Data editing, model validation, visualization Modular and flexible,

6 Three Main Modules Tool Manager Data Manager Project Manager Library of tools Similar to ESRI ToolBox and ModelBuilder. Tools are called and executed from inside ArcGIS Manages databases Similar to ESRI ArcCatalog Links tools with data Creates projects and scenarios

Tools are called and executed from inside ArcGIS Manages databases

7 Model Sequence

8 Real Estate Price Model Loads Parcels, Buildings, Jobs, Households, Travel Data Predicts Price per Unit for all parcels Price per square foot of land for nonresidential and vacant land Price per residential unit for residential land uses Separate submodel for each Land Use Type Stores the new price per unit on the Parcel.

nonresidential and vacant land Price per residential unit for residential land

9 Development Project Model Loads Parcels, Buildings, Development Projects, Development Templates, Development Constraints Predicts Development Projects to Activate Plan & Constraints Select Development Templates Flag Tentative Compute ROI Planned Proposed Tentative Compare ROIs Activate Projects Velocity Function

to Activate Plan & Constraints Select Development Templates Flag Tentative

11 AZ-SMART Notable Features Uses parcel and/or land use polygons Simulates development process using development templates and development velocity curves Model estimates ROI (Return on Investment) Applications can be called and executed from inside ArcToolbox Has automatic policy overrides to set minimum and maximum growth in each zone Visualize and report results using ArcGIS

Investment) Applications can be called and executed from inside ArcToolbox Has automatic

12 Where Are We Now? Contract For Phase I is awarded to Center for Urban Simulation and Policy Analysis at University of Washington AZ-SMART architecture and conceptual database design are 90% complete First software module is under development

13 Challenges to date From a black box to a transparent configurable system Geography : Grid - Polygon Parcel Slow performance of ArcSDE Seamless integration with GIS, relational spatial databases Need both robust algorithms and GUI Parcel subdivision routines Updates from ESRI and UW Large datasets (Area >24,000 sq. mi.)

integration with GIS, relational spatial databases Need both robust algorithms

14 Questions? Anubhav Bagley Program Manager Petya Maneva Modeling Analyst Kristen Zimmerman Senior Research Analyst (602)

INTRODUCTION TO ARCGIS SOFTWARE

INTRODUCTION TO ARCGIS SOFTWARE I. History of Software Development a. Developer ESRI - Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., in 1969 as a privately held consulting firm that specialized in landuse