Cloud Computing futures

Transcription

1 Cloud Computing futures One of the most important IT trends of the decade has barely started CA Cloud Academy Summit 16 th February 2010 Laurent Lachal Ovum 1

2 Agenda Ovum Cloud computing - past and present Cloud computing in Europe and in Spain Cloud computing - futures 2

3 Ovum 150 Technology and Telecoms Analysts across the US, EMEA and APAC 3

4 Ovum/Datamonitor [150] Analysts [100] Analysts 100 [50] Analysts TECHNOLOGY AND TELECOMS CONSULTING 150 Analysts Business-focussed Technology and Telecoms consulting 4

5 Agenda Ovum Cloud computing - past and present Cloud computing in Europe and in Spain Cloud computing - futures 5

6 Rapid evolution = public cloud (IaaS then PaaS and SaaS) = public vs. private cloud Damn big server farm = hybrid cloud Style of computing Evolution Strategy No SaaS! : what is it? Architecture : how can I benefit from it? Revolution Business model No private cloud! From controversy to business 6

7 The new black for suppliers Every vendor converging on it many still finalizing offerings Internet-centric companies (e.g. Amazon, Google, Salesforce.com) IT software incumbents (e.g. IBM, Microsoft, Oracle) IT service incumbents (e.g. Accenture, Capgemini, CSC, Indra, Rackspace) Telecom incumbents (e.g. AT&T, BT, Telefónica, Vodafone) Private cloud users turned (IaaS, PaaS, SaaS) public cloud providers Big money and profits already: e.g. Amazon web services (UBS Investment Research, Aug10) $500m to $2.5bn to 2014 (1.7% to 3.7% of total revenue) 49% to 53% gross margin (more than twice gross retail margin) $58m to $393m net income (11.6% to 15.7% net margin) Some fashions are more important than others 7

8 Public clouds: two perspectives Ecosystem services Marketplace services Business services Community services SPI model SaaS Software-as-a-service PaaS Platform-as-a-service IaaS Infrastructure-as-a-service Self-service standardized online services upgraded centrally and evolved iteratively available from large data centers over multiple networks via multiple devices, software and APIs PAYG? Elastic? No commitment? To start with Transparent pricing? Cheap? Not necessarily Technology < Business perspective 8

9 IaaS use: Netflix From DVDs in the mail to online video delivery: $600 million in profit on $1.6 billion in sales last year - largest commercial operation in the cloud Move to AWS end 09 almost complete Product Catalogue video encoding farm first then large-scale log and analytics based on Hadoop in 2009 on-demand streaming, API and more than 80% of its Web functionality in API back end infrastructure to migrate in next few years Pricing CRM Prefer to spend millions on content rather than servers and facilities As AWS agnostic as possible to keep choice open Intelligently betting the farm on cloud 9

10 Private clouds: two perspectives Automation Virtualisation SOA Standard services Self-service Chargeback 1 increasing pressure keep up with public cloud Joneses IT < end-user perspective (no private cloud without it) 10

11 Hybrid clouds: all levels All levels public cloud (IaaS, PaaS, SaaS) Internal Private Virtual Shared Shared private public / private (NB: private = hybrid) cloud / traditional services External Virtual private private Public software products, applications from companies to supply chains (e.g. Pharma) 1 n Reflects market maturation Success = right recipe 11

12 Pharma: Genome research supply chain example (Virtual) DataCenter (Virtual) DataCenter Cloud Compute Organization A (Virtual) DataCenter VPN Cloud Applications Ensembl Organization B Cloud Ensembl Applications Plasmapper genome Plasmapper genome Internal SLA No SLA Limited SLA Commercial SLA Source: BT 12

13 Mixed adoption N=125 Private/hybrid cloud small but big potential 13

14 Benefits Cloud computing Convenience, simplicity, speed Adaptation, innovation Lower costs, cost transparency Quality of service (QoS) centralization Lower cost > convenience, speed, lower risk, new tech Private cloud Avoid public cloud limitations/constrains Adopt public cloud technologies, designs and best practices Public cloud Capex to Opex, affordable IT focus, risk to vendor Fast updates/feedback Scalability & reach Internet integration Easy to access, demo, test, use, share IaaS reuse & control PaaS speed of development, integration SaaS turnkey proposition Multiple layers of benefits 14

15 Challenges Cloud computing Info, resources, skills Service-centric IT execution & governance: OSS & BSS infrastructure Demand/cost management + cost transparency QoS/SLAs Interoperability Private cloud Old industrialization, consolidation & standardization concerns. New generic (e.g. green IT, network) & cloud specific (e.g. self-service, sharing) concerns Public cloud Migration/long-term costs, Capex vs opex Security, compliance Immaturity and evolution/ upgrade Shadow IT IaaS effort & constrains PaaS constrains, lock-in & technologies SaaS functionality & customizability Multiple layers of challenges 15

16 Agenda Ovum Cloud computing - past and present Cloud computing in Europe and in Spain Cloud computing - futures 16

17 Cloud in Europe: behind NA and APAC SaaS international already IaaS and PaaS becoming so Big APAC potential Source: Savvis, April 10 N:456 EMEA to follow slowly 17

18 Cloud in Europe: European Commission focus Innovation for recovery Jan 10 Innovation Union Scoreboard: EU behind US & Japan cloud R&D - link to integration & open source Cloud friendly regulatory framework to deal with economic and legal issues challenge: finding the right balance A cloud without robust data protection is not the sort of cloud we need (Viviane Reding, European Justice Commissioner, Jan 10) Need to focus on more VC, less red tape usual story of local start-ups moving to the US (e.g. Abiquo) 18

19 Cloud in Europe: potentially big impact Source: centre for economics and business research, Dec

20 Cloud in Spain: drivers and barriers Drivers economic situation, SMEs (99.84% in January 2009) & services (50%+GDP/43% jobs) cost advantage, good (IT/transport) infrastructures, well educated workforce, ties with Latin America Large companies (Telefonica) & small start ups (Abiquo, EyeOS, Tuenti) Spanish government s Broadband Rollout Plan (PEBA) to extend access to 99% of Spanish territory & cloud ambitions Barriers Economic situation, weather, energy cost, inertia/conservatism Vanson Bourne CA survey Feb10: 86% undecided as to cloud future Colt CIO survey April -May % Cloud awareness vs UK (77%), Germany (75%), France (71%) and Italy (66%) Spain below EU27 average in 2010 Innovation Union Scoreboard 20

21 Cloud in Spain: big potential Source: centre for economics and business research, Dec

22 Agenda Ovum Cloud computing - past and present Cloud computing in Europe and in Spain Cloud computing - futures 22

23 Overview (Relatively) slow growth, increasingly hybrid demand: relationship evolution supply: industry convergence Slow interoperability Intercloud a long way away in the meantime, cloud federations rise (e.g. VMware or Microsoft cloud provider ecosystem) Public sector remains as influential as ever 23

24 Public sector role: US 2011 procurement guidelines The State of Public Sector Cloud Computing Vivek Kundra Federal CIO 20 May 2010 OMB, as part of the FY 2011 Budget Process, requested all agencies to evaluate cloud computing alternatives as part of their budget submissions for all major IT investments, where relevant. Specifically: By September 2011 all newly planned or performing major IT investments acquisitions must complete an alternatives analysis that includes a cloud computing based alternative as part of their budget submissions. Source: 24

25 Public sector role: Taiwan s next trillion $ industry 25

26 Public clouds become more business-centric Driven by continuing economic crisis - big investments continue From technology to ecosystem view new roles (extenders, mediators, integrators, brokers ) Consolidation/commoditization smaller than expected, democratization larger than expected Maturation: security and compliance to remain top priorities, performance/sla concerns to increase Difficulties will fuel a backlash 26

27 Each public cloud sector goes its own way Takes off & gets complicated production internationalization from storage and compute to network IaaS PaaS Next big opportunity emerges and converges with IaaS increased competition SaaS Explodes, expands and combines IaaS/PaaS-based SaaS SaaS combinations Many trends 27

28 More private and hybrid clouds Private clouds emerge with a focus on cost-aware service delivery Public clouds keep internal IT on its toes from technology to user-centric service delivery, slowly (from customer to user satisfaction) result in financially aware accountable data centers increasingly automated, standardized, focused & governed API-centric IT Hybrid clouds reflect a pragmatic approach to cloud computing virtual private clouds to become fashionable (supply chain) orchestration, integrated self-services via governance portals will take time to emerge hybrid offerings help traditional ones (e.g. managed hosting services) get a foot in the door 28

29 Messages to users Consider whether you are ready for cloud computing, not just whether cloud computing is ready for you. Focus on what the cloud can do, not what it cannot do. Head up, take stock and create your own recipes Remain in control of your choices. Get involved, shape standards (ODCA, ECLC, Cloud commons) Get inspired by public clouds: Move towards increasingly shared and service-centric IT Always have a plan B 29

30 Summary Unavoidable, early gold rush days already big money will take a decade to get established Many perspectives look top-down, not just bottom-up Remain pragmatic and specific focus on end (business outcome & user experience), not mean (Cloud) interact with others e.g. via Cloud commons Browser-based self-service PAYG standardized app portal/catalogue SLA Automated and elastic pool of abstracted resources Top down User concerns IT concerns Bottom up Keep a balanced view/approach 30

31 Thank you Any questions? One of the most important IT trends of the decade has barely started CA Cloud Academy Summit 16th February 2010 Laurent Lachal Ovum 31