How To Know If Cfc 12 Is Still Needed

Transcription

1 Mobile Air Conditioning James A. Baker Delphi Corporation 19 th OORG Meeting March 2002

2 Presentation Topics Estimating CFC-12 Needs for Developing Countries The Effectiveness of Refrigerant Recycling Challenges Ahead for the MACS Industry

3 World Vehicle A/C Population 1200 Million CFC-12 Only HFC-134a & CFC Model Year

4 Vehicle Regional Population 70% Percent of Population 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Developing Countries Predominately Here Year U.S. Europe Asia Others

5 Global Vehicle Fleet Developed Countries Vehicle Population Passenger Commercial Total Vehicles 400,826, ,169, ,995,667 Developing Countries Vehicle Population Passenger Commercial Total Vehicles 76,183,622 39,579, ,763,441 Source Analysis of AAMA World Motor Vehicle Data 1997 Edition

6 Developing Country Assumptions & Estimates Passenger Commercial Total Vehicles 76,183,622 39,579, ,763,441 60% Factory A/C 50% Factory A/C 45,710,173 19,789,909 65,500,083

7 Developing Country Assumptions & Estimates Passenger Commercial Total Vehicles 45,710,173 19,789,909 65,500,083 50% of A/C Systems Still Operational [Vehicle Age > 7 Years] 22,855,087 9,894,955 32,750, kg CFC kg CFC-12 Avg. Charge Systems Recharged Annually 29,711,613 kg 22,758,374 kg Annual Need = 52,470 mt CFC-12

8 The Effectiveness of Refrigerant Recycling

9 CFC-12 Refrigerant Recycling Effectiveness Mobile Air Conditioning Society 2000 Service Survey 595 CFC-12 Vehicles (Avg. Original Charge 1.05 kg) 61.3% Had Pressure Residual = 0.57 kg 38.7% No Pressure Residual = 0 kg Fleet Average CFC-12 Reusable = 0.35 kg CFC-12 Refrigerant Recycling Effectiveness = 33%

10 HFC-134a Refrigerant Recycling Effectiveness Mobile Air Conditioning Society 2000 Service Survey 313 HFC-134a Vehicles (Avg. Original Charge 0.91 kg) 68.4% Had Pressure Residual = 0.80 kg 31.6% No Pressure Residual = 0 kg Fleet Average HFC-134a Reusable = 0.55 kg HFC-134a Refrigerant Recycling Effectiveness = 60%

11 Challenges Ahead for the MACS Industry

12 The Global Vehicle Fleet One Billion Vehicles by Million Automobiles & Light Trucks 262 Million Commercial Vehicles 84% with Factory-Installed MAC Systems by Estimated 70% Operational 588 Million Working MAC Systems in 2010 Refrigerant Leakage is a Growing Concern New Refrigerant Needed???

13 Why Consider Changing the Refrigerant Again? Kyoto Protocol to Reduce Emissions of Greenhouse Gases HFC s are Considered Greenhouse Gases HFC-134a Currently Used in MAC Systems Mounting Pressure from Europe Against the Use of HFC s

14 European Pressure on HFC s Austria & Denmark = Favor HFC Phase-Out Norway & Sweden = Favor HFC Taxes European Commission Actions - Assessing MACS Emissions in Europe - Meeting in Brussels in Feb 2003 to Address Status of HFC s in MACS Use Information Gathered for Regulations

15 European Pressure on HFC s European Regulatory Options Include - Ban Mobile Air Conditioning - Tax Mobile Air Conditioning - A/C Must be a Stand Alone Option - Energy & Emissions Requirements - Phase Out HFC-134a - Alternative Refrigerants (CO 2?)

16 Annual MACS HFC-134a Equivalent CO 2 Emissions h Best Case Average Emissions = 67 g HFC-134a/year/vehicle 100% Recycling & Recovery Service & Scrap 0.08 Metric Tons CO 2 per Vehicle {Equal to CO 2 from burning 9 gallons of gasoline} h Worst Case Average Emission = 167 g HFC-134a/year/vehicle No Recycling & Recovery 0.22 Metric Tons CO 2 per Vehicle

17 Lifetime MACS HFC-134a Equivalent CO 2 Emissions h Best Case 100% Recycling & Recovery (At Service and Vehicle Scrap) h Worst Case 1.0 Metric Ton CO 2 No Recycling & Recovery 2.6 Metric Tons CO 2

18 Cost / Benefit Threshold? h Reducing GHG Emissions Will Cost Society h One Mechanism To Minimize Cost is to Get Credit For Reducing Emissions in Another Country if it is Less Costly Than in Your Own Country. Ex. Norway to Get Emission Reduction Credit for Helping Faragas, Romania Improve Its Gas-Based Heating System h What is the Value of a Metric Ton of CO 2? Norway s Cost for Reducing Romania s Emissions will be $3.30 per Metric Ton CO 2 h What is the Appropriate Cost / Benefit Threshold to Induce Industry Action???

19 MACS System Service & HFC-134a Emissions Are HFC-134a Systems Really an Improvement Over CFC-12 Systems? Service Experience Says YES

20 Vehicle Service Profiles Age of Vehicle at Service 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Under Over 10 Vehicle Age

21 Vehicle Service Profiles Age of Vehicle at Service = CFC-12 Only 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% HFC-134a Only 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Under Over 10 Vehicle Age

22 Future Systems Prototype Carbon Dioxide Systems Were Demonstrated at 1999 & 2000 Phoenix Alternate Refrigerant Forums. Secondary Loop System Technology Was Demonstrated at 1999 Phoenix Forum. These Systems Could Use HFC-152a or Propane as the Refrigerant. (Both are Flammable) Above Systems Provided Comparable Occupant Comfort to Today s HFC-134a Systems. They Also Reduce Total Vehicle A/C System Global Warming Impact Compared to HFC-134a Systems.