REFERENCE CODE GDHCER PUBLICAT ION DATE AUGUST 2014 RENAL CELL CARCINOMA - EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2023

Transcription

1 REFERENCE CODE GDHCER PUBLICAT ION DATE AUGUST 2014 RENAL CELL CARCINOMA -

2 Executive Summary Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is a type of kidney cancer that originates in the lining of the proximal convoluted tubule, a part of the very small tubes in the kidney that transport waste molecules from the blood to the urine. RCC is the most common type of kidney cancer in adults, being responsible for approximately 90% of all cases in adults (Ljungberg et al., 2011). The condition is asymptomatic in its initial stages, and as a result, people with RCC are often in the advanced stages of the disease by the time it is discovered. The initial symptoms of RCC often include blood in the urine, flank pain, a mass in the abdomen or flank, weight loss, fever, hypertension (high blood pressure), night sweats, and a general feeling of being unwell. Kidney cancer is among the 10 most frequently occurring cancers in Western countries. Globally, about 270,000 cases of kidney cancer are diagnosed yearly, and 116,000 people die from the disease (Ljungberg et al., 2011). This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for RCC in the eight major markets (8MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and urban China). The report also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of RCC, segmented by age (at 20-year intervals, starting at age 20 years and ending at ages 80 years) and sex. GlobalData epidemiologists also forecast the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of RCC in the 8MM. Additionally, the report provides the RCC diagnosed incident cases, segmented by the stage at diagnosis, for the 8MM. To forecast the diagnosed incident and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of RCC in the 8MM, GlobalData epidemiologists selected nationally-representative, population-based studies that provided the diagnosed incidence or relative survival rates of RCC in the 8MM. The relative survival rates were used to calculate the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of RCC. As shown in the first figure below, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast an increase in the diagnosed incident cases of RCC in the 8MM, from 186,179 diagnosed incident cases in 2013 to 302,449 diagnosed incident cases in 2023, with an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 6.25% during the forecast period. In 2023, urban China will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of RCC in the 8MM, with 140,172 diagnosed incident cases, whereas Spain will have the lowest number of diagnosed incident cases of RCC, with 7,591 diagnosed incident cases. Similarly, as shown in the second figure below, the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of RCC in the 8MM will increase from 593,228 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2013 to 953,925 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2023, with an AGR of 6.08% during the forecast period. The increase in the diagnosed five-year prevalent cases of RCC is partly attributed to the rising trend in the incidence rate of RCC in the 8MM, combined with changes in the population demographics in 2

3 Executive Summary the respective markets. The rising trend in the incidence of RCC may partly be a result of increased use of imaging techniques that can detect asymptomatic tumors. 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of RCC, Ages 20 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2013 and MM 7MM China (Urban) US 5EU Japan Italy Germany France UK Spain 65,610 52,762 18,543 14,770 16,218 12,937 15,781 14,413 15,059 11,576 10,961 8,311 7,591 5, , , , ,172 64,407 78,124 54, , , , , ,000 Diagnosed Incident Cases of RCC (N) Source: GlobalData; Ferlay et al., 2014; Ljungberg et al., EU = France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK; 7MM = US, 5EU, and Japan; 8MM = 7MM and China (Urban) 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of RCC, Ages 20 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2013 and MM 7MM China (Urban) US 5EU Japan Germany Italy France UK Spain 63,683 50,137 59,707 53,399 56,565 44,841 50,762 38,852 28,224 21,276 23,280 16, , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 1,200,000 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of RCC (N) Source: GlobalData; EUROCARE-5, 2014; Howlader et al., 2013; Sankaranarayanan et al., 2011; Tsukuma et al., EU = France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK; 7MM = US, 5EU, and Japan; 8MM = 7MM and China (Urban) 3

4 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents List of Tables List of Figures Introduction Catalyst Related Reports Upcoming Related Reports Epidemiology Disease Background Risk Factors and Comorbidities Global Trends Incidence Survival Rates for RCC 8MM Forecast Methodology Sources Used Sources Not Used Forecast Assumptions and Methods, RCC Diagnosed Incident Cases Forecast Assumptions and Methods, RCC Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases Forecast Assumptions and Methods, RCC Clinical Stage at Diagnosis Epidemiological Forecast for RCC ( ) Diagnosed Incident Cases of RCC Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of RCC Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of RCC Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of RCC Diagnosed Incident Cases of RCC by Clinical Stage at Diagnosis Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of RCC

5 Table of Contents 3.6 Discussion Epidemiological Forecast Insight Limitations of the Analysis Strengths of the Analysis Appendix Bibliography About the Authors Epidemiologists Reviewers Acting Director of Epidemiology Global Head of Healthcare About GlobalData About EpiCast Disclaimer

6 Table of Contents 1.1 List of Tables Table 1: RCC Clinical Stages at Diagnosis Table 2: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for RCC Table 3: Trends in the Age-Adjusted Incidence of Kidney Cancers in the US, Ages 20 Years, Table 4: Trends in the Age-Adjusted Incidence of Kidney Cancers in the 5EU, Ages 20 Years, Table 5: Trends in the Age-Adjusted Incidence of Kidney Cancers in Japan, Ages 20 Years, Table 6: Trends in the Age-Adjusted Incidence of Kidney Cancers in Urban China, Ages 20 Years, Table 7: Trends in the Five-Year Relative Survival (%) of Kidney Cancers in the 8MM, Both Sexes, Table 8: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for the Forecast for RCC Diagnosed Incident Cases. 17 Table 9: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for the Forecast for RCC Diagnosed Five-Year Prevalent Cases Table 10: 8MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for the Segmentation of RCC Incident Cases by Clinical Stage at Diagnosis Table 11: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of RCC, Both Sexes, Ages 20 Years, N, Table 12: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of RCC, Both Sexes, N (Row %), Table 13: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of RCC, Ages 20 Years, N (Row %), Table 14: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of RCC, Both Sexes, Ages 20 Years, N,

7 Table of Contents 1.2 List of Figures Figure 1: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of RCC, Both Sexes, Ages 20 Years, N, Figure 2: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of RCC, Both Sexes, N, Figure 3: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of RCC, Ages 20 Years, N, Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of RCC (Cases per 100,000 Population), Ages 20 Years, by Sex, Figure 5: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of RCC by Clinical Stage at Diagnosis, Ages 20 Years, N, Figure 6: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of RCC, Both Sexes, Ages 20 Years, N,

8 Introduction 2 Introduction 2.1 Catalyst Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is a type of kidney cancer that originates in the lining of the proximal convoluted tubule, a part of the very small tubes in the kidney that transport waste molecules from the blood to the urine. RCC is the most common type of kidney cancer in adults, being responsible for approximately 90% of all cases in adults (Ljungberg et al., 2011). This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for RCC in the eight major markets (8MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and urban China). The report also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of RCC, segmented by age (at 20-year intervals, starting at age 20 years and ending at ages 80 years) and sex. GlobalData epidemiologists also forecast the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of RCC in the 8MM. Additionally, the report provides the RCC diagnosed incident cases, segmented by the stage at diagnosis, for the 8MM. To forecast the diagnosed incident and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of RCC in the 8MM, GlobalData epidemiologists selected nationally-representative, population-based studies that provided the diagnosed incidence or relative survival rates of RCC in the 8MM. The relative survival rates were used to calculate the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of RCC. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast an increase in the diagnosed incident cases of RCC in the 8MM, from 186,179 diagnosed incident cases in 2013 to 302,449 diagnosed incident cases in 2023, with an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 6.25% during the forecast period. The five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of RCC in the 8MM will increase from 593,228 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2013 to 953,925 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2023, with an AGR of 6.08% during the forecast period. 8

9 Introduction 2.3 Upcoming Related Reports GlobalData (2014). PharmaPoint: Renal Cell Carcinoma Forecast to 2023, August 2014 GlobalData (2014). PharmaPoint: Colorectal Cancer Forecast to 2023, September 2014 GlobalData (2014). PharmaPoint: Breast Cancer Forecast to 2023, September

10 Appendix 4.3 About GlobalData GlobalData is a leading global provider of business intelligence in the healthcare industry. GlobalData provides its clients with up-to-date information and analysis on the latest developments in drug research, disease analysis, and clinical research and development. Our integrated business intelligence solutions include a range of interactive online databases, analytical tools, reports, and forecasts. Our analysis is supported by a 24/7 client support and analyst team. GlobalData has offices in New York, San Francisco, Boston, London, India, Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Australia. 4.4 About EpiCast EpiCast is a series of premier epidemiology reports written and developed by Master sand PhD-level epidemiologists. EpiCast Reports are in-depth, high-quality, transparent, and market-driven, providing expert analysis of epidemiological trends and forecasting of patient populations for major markets. Specifically, the reports identify disease trends over a 10-year forecast period in six to seven major markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). Additional countries, such as Brazil, Canada, China, and India, are covered in these reports if their markets are highly relevant. 43

11 Appendix 4.5 Disclaimer All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, GlobalData. 44