Outline Petroleum Engineering Seminars

Transcription

1 Nuno Salsa Ferreira

2 Outline Scope E&P Companies Assets Valuation Deepwater Growing Trend Deepwater Expenditures Drilling Operations Deepwater Drilling Main Challenges Rig Drilling Market Macondo Accident Case Study Stochastic Project Evaluation Risk Assessment Monte Carlo Simulation Stochastic Project Evaluation

3 Deepwater Growing Trend 3

4 E&P Companies Assets Valuation RRR = annual reserves added annual production 4

5 Deepwater Expenditures Deepwater expenditure is expected to increase by 130% totalling $260 billion USD from Africa and Americas will continue to dominate Deepwater expenditure with $213 billion USD (82% of total expenditure) Source: Douglas Westwood,

6 Deepwater Expenditures Mainly due to Deepwater operations 1 million USD Hiring Deepwater Drilling Rig/day 6

7 Outline Scope E&P Companies Assets Valuation Deepwater Growing Trend Deepwater Expenditures Drilling Operations Deepwater Drilling Main Challenges Rig Drilling Market Macondo Accident Case Study Stochastic Project Evaluation Risk Assessment Monte Carlo Simulation Stochastic Project Evaluation

8 Deepwater Drilling Water Column Post-salt Salt Pre-salt Harsh Environment Logistical Problem Mechanical Issues Geological Complexity Wind velocity Waves Currents Long distances Materials fadigue Corrosion Viscousplastic salt behaviour High pressures and temperature environments 8

9 Main Challenges Petroleum Engineering Semminars FOCAR PREÇOS FOCAR CONSUMO MUNDIAL FOCAR PRODUÇÃO MUNDIAL Which are the Risks? Disagregation of the NPT% 9

10 Main Challenges Petroleum Engineering Semminar Wellbore Instability Hazards Source: Schlumberger,

11 SEMI-SUBMERSIBLE RIG DRILLSHIP Rig Drilling Market Petroleum Engineering Semminar FLOATERS 11

12 Rig Drilling Market Floaters are capable to perform deepwater and ultradeepwater drilling Positive Correlation 12

13 Macondo Accident Risk in any endeavor cannot be eliminated entirely but it can be sucessfully managed if it is recognized and fully understood (David Pritchard & Kenneth Kotow, 2011) Main root cause was the delay of 43 days by the contractors Transocean and Halliburton to complete the well and 21 billion USD overbudget Source: Report to The President: National Comission on BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill 13

14 Macondo Accident COMPANIES INVOLVED CONSEQUENCES BP lost $70 billion in market capitalization Transocean share price decline due to the uncertainties of liability and was overcome by the second largest company Seadrill has only half the revenue and one-third of the fleet size of Transocean Implications on safety and environmental issues New tight regulations Impact on costs Implications on long-term supply Deep offshore safety and developments Risk management Deep Horizon Semi-submersible rig sank Human losses and the largest environmental impact since Exxon Valdez (19 times bigger) Source: Antonio Costa e Silva, 2012 Which are the Consequences? Source: Anderson et al, 2011 HUMAN & ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES 14

15 Outline Scope E&P Companies Assets Valuation Deepwater Growing Trend Deepwater Expenditures Drilling Operations Deepwater Drilling Main Challenges Rig Drilling Market Macondo Accident Case Study Stochastic Project Evaluation Risk Assessment Monte Carlo Simulation Stochastic Project Evaluation

16 Risk Assessment Single-point deterministic approach: Worst, most likely and best case scenarios (decision tree); Multi-point stochastic approach: Range of possible outcomes (Cumulative distribution function); Newendrop and Root (1975) were the pioneer of using stochastic approach to drilling operations; Quantifies uncertainties in an objective manner; Evaluates multiple scenario; Develops a complete understanding of the problem; Source: Vasily Demyanov, 2014 Requires significant capital investment and highly uncertain conditions 16

17 Defining Uncertainties 2nd Phase Statistics (P2) 1st Phase Statistics (P1) 3rd Phase Statistics (P3) SIMULATION Drilling Time (DT) 4rd Phase Statistics (P4) NPT NPT0 NPT24 17

18 Field Operations Data 18

19 Monte Carlo Simulation Obtain the inverse transformated value Generate a uniformly distributed pseudorandom value N iterations Obtain the values of each input variable Define a value of Drilling Time 19

20 Stochastic Project Evaluation Cumulative Distribution Function for the Drilling Time; Rate of Performance Curve based on cdf s percentiles; Source: Farinha,

21 Questions & Answers