The road to tenure neutral policies

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1 The road to tenure neutral policies Stop promising universal home ownership Marja Elsinga September 11, Delft University of Technology Challenge the future

2 The road to tenure neutral policies 2

3 Some figures Meaning of housing tenure Financial model Housing tenure and policy Conclusions The road to tenure neutral policies 3

4 Germany Austria Netherlands Belgium Sweden Denmark Finland Portugal Italy Greece Spain UK Ireland Poland Hungary Slovenia Home ownership by income quartile, EU-SILC % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Corporatist Social democrat Mediterranean Liberal Eastern Europe 1st (low) 2nd 3rd 4th (high) The road to tenure neutral policies 4

5 Home ownership in the EU27, EU- SILC 2009 Largest (>75%) in Eastern, Southern Europe, BE Around 65-75%: UK, IE, SE, PL Relatively low (< 60%) in GE, AT, DE, DK, FI, CZ and NL The road to tenure neutral policies 5

6 Social rental housing in the EU27, Cecodhas, 2012 Largest in NL, followed by AT and DK. UK, FR, SW and FI also have a large social/public housing sector On the contrary, no rental social housing in EL, very small share in CEE as well as PT, ES The road to tenure neutral policies 6

7 Home ownership in Europe, Sources: Catte et al (2004), Scanlon and Whitehead (2007), EMF (2010),MRI (1996), Balchin (1996) The road to tenure neutral policies 7 7

8 Quito, Ecuador Source: Census INEC, in: Donoso Gomez, ,6 Quito: occupied housing by tenure 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0, Owners Renters Other No info The road to tenure neutral policies 8

9 South Korea The road to tenure neutral policies 9

10 Conclusions The higher the income, the higher the home ownership rate (Household) The higher the income, the lower the home ownership rate (country) Home ownership policies do not always work well Housing as speculation object There is a limit to home ownership, around 70% Renting Different models A developed sector as a luxury The road to tenure neutral policies 10

11 Some figures Meaning of housing tenure Financial model Housing tenure and policy Conclusions The road to tenure neutral policies 11

12 Home ownership an American dream? Home ownership ideology is strongest in Anglo Saxon countries The road to tenure neutral policies 12

13 Get your foot on the property ladder as soon as possible! The road to tenure neutral policies 13

14 Why not rent and enjoy freedom? The road to tenure neutral policies 14

15 You better start in Chonsei. The road to tenure neutral policies 15

16 Or consider informal housing The road to tenure neutral policies 16

17 Does home ownership empower people? Home owners more empowered than tenants But: tenure does not influence empowerment Home ownership rather an indicator than a cause of empowerment The road to tenure neutral policies 17

18 Conclusions The meaning of tenure depends on context since alternative is different Home ownership is rather an indicator than a cause of empowerment Positive effects of home ownership are often over estimated The road to tenure neutral policies 18

19 Some figures Meaning of housing tenure Financial model Housing tenure and policy Conclusions The road to tenure neutral policies 19

20 IMF-survey, 2012 The road to tenure neutral policies 20

21 Financial model The road to tenure neutral policies 21

22 More than just owning a house The road to tenure neutral policies 22

23 The road to tenure neutral policies 23

24 Conclusions Effect financial market on house prices: Deregulation pushed up housing prices In some countries more than others! Use of housing: Housing market used as ATM Housing as speculation object: buy and let But: High house price increases not sustainable Decent low income housing needs government support! The road to tenure neutral policies 24

25 Some figures Meaning of housing tenure Financial model Housing tenure and policy Conclusions The road to tenure neutral policies 25

26 Housing policy EU: Member states are responsible for housing BUT: Housing policy by stealth Financial markets Competition rental market: end of unitary model Effect of home ownership policy is overestimated There is a limit Effects on people and neighborhoods overestimated The road to tenure neutral policies 26

27 Reasons to encourage home ownership Help households to achieve the preferred tenure More responsible citizens Empower people Better involvement in neighbourhoods Make households build equity Strong beliefs, weak evidence The road to tenure neutral policies 27

28 Reasons for rental policy Recognize there is a substantial market in particular in cities Facilitate labour market mobility Provide lower income households an affordable house Facilitate equity release The road to tenure neutral policies 28

29 Use of housing equity, Eurobarometer, % worried whether income in old age would be sufficient to enable them to live in dignity % Yes, once I have retired I plan to move to a different home % Yes, once I have retired I would consider to borrow against my home or sell it while keeping the right to live in it 0 Hungary Portugal Slovenia United Kingdom Belgium Germany Finland Netherlands The road to tenure neutral policies 29 Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities

30 Conclusions Home ownership is desired by many But, renting is there and needs policy for tenants and landlords: - Subsidise to enable return on investment - Support good maintenance - Security of tenure - Prevent excessive rents The road to tenure neutral policies 30

31 Some figures Meaning of housing tenure Financial model Housing tenure and policy Conclusions The road to tenure neutral policies 31

32 Implications for housing policy The positive effects of home ownership are over estimated The positive effects of a good functioning rental market are underestimated Positive effect on social inclusion Enables labour market mobility Housing policy should aim at providing adequate housing, not so much on a particular tenure 100% home ownership is not realistic in urban areas Rental housing for young, mobile, poor, old Good rental policy crucial for cities The road to tenure neutral policies 32

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