Proposed Wireless Broadband Project: Connected OC Low-Cost Internet Access Network Business Case

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Bernice Tate
8 years ago
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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Business Case Drivers Socioeconomic profiles of Orange County s Red Zone populations are statistically shown to accompany low-rates of broadband adoption. In 2005: Only 24% of low-income households had broadband. Over 70% of those with $75,000 median income did County can take measures to promote broadband adoption by deploying a limited, wireless network for low-cost Internet service to economically distressed areas. Target the Red Zones, which comprise 20 square miles. Statistics are based on Census and State of California Broadband Task Force data. Households should qualify for the low-cost Internet program so the County doesn t appear to be competing with incumbent Internet providers. Strategies to Meet the Critical Success Factors for Grant Funding Deploy Metro Area broadband to community anchor institutions, i.e.,: Community colleges. Public safety entities. Connecting anchors are a core focus of grant program. Potential public-private partnerships: Government, business (network provider) and community groups have expressed interest in partnering with the County: North OC Community Colleges, OC Dept. of Education seeking grants for Public Computing. City of Santa Ana OC would allow them to use low-cost wireless network to extend reach of their programs. BTOP prefers joint projects connecting as many anchors as possible. Source out the network design, build and operations to a private company. Deploy broadband to economically distressed areas: Extend broadband Last Mile to underserved areas. County puts up 30% match (20% is minimum, but less than 30% won t be competitive). 4/21/10 Page 1 of 10

Over 70% of those with $75,000 median income did County can take measures to promote broadband adoption by deploying a limited, wireless network for low-cost Internet service to economically

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (continued) Long Term Costs & Matching Funds Sources Low-Income Internet Access Network total build out costs: $3.3 million. Allocation of Stimulus funds (if awarded): ARRA (Stimulus) pays: $2,155,300 County match (30%): $923,700 Source of matching funds: One-time net county investment ($923,700) to be recovered by revenue collected from subscriptions, payback anticipated in third year of operation. Operating Revenues and Costs: Year 2 subscriptions (3,500) could generate annual revenue of $315,000 Year 8 subscriptions (16,800) could generate annual revenue of $1,800,000 Red Zone total households 78,000. Assuming broadband adoption of <=50%, there are 39,000 potential households that could subscribe. Annual subscriber growth rate assumed 3% annually (2000/year). Higher growth assumed after launch, tapering off to sustain 3% growth thereafter. Subscriptions assume $15/month connect fee. Projections assume subscribers lost to attrition are balanced 1-for-1 with signing of new accounts (net-zero impact). Data supporting potential subscriber demand in economically distressed areas (Red Zones): California Broadband Task Force data: o 2006 report noted that subscription levels in California are also closely associated with income, education, and ethnicity. o Only 24 percent of California households with incomes under $25,000 subscribed to broadband Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) data: o 2007 study showed that only 51% of Californians earning under $40,000 a year subscribed to either dial-up or broadband at home o Over 95% of those earning $80,000 or more a year subscribed. o While 91 percent of college graduates in California subscribe to the Internet at home, less than 50 percent of those without any college education do. 4/21/10 Page 2 of 10

collected from subscriptions, payback anticipated in third year of operation.

3 March 25, 2010 James Mata Program Manager County Executive Office, Information Technology COUNTY OF ORANGE 333 W. Santa Ana Blvd., Room 208-D Santa Ana, CA RE: Support of Link OC (Orange County Regional Wireless), Grant # 7615 Dear Mr. Mata, The California Community Colleges Economic & Workforce Development Program -Orange County Digital Media Center and North Orange County Community College District supports the County of Orange in their efforts to secure a Recovery Act grant for their broadband network project. The County s project would provide low-cost Internet access to economically distressed areas of Orange County. Many of these are the same communities that will benefit from public computing center projects we have submitted to BTOP for Recovery Act funding, Grant # The County has agreed to partner with our organization by providing us with access to their network, thereby extending the reach of our training programs into the homes of these communities. By combining our efforts we expect to better leverage our Recovery Act funds and further improve the economic prospects of these vulnerable populations. Sincerely, Christie A. Campbell Director, Orange County Digital Media Center Advancing the Business of Creativity North Orange County Community College District 1830 W. Romneya Dr. Anaheim, CA (fax) ccampbell@sce.edu 4/21/10 NOCCCD, TDI, SCE, OCDMC Page 3 of W. Romneya Dr., Anaheim, CA fax

Mata, The California Community Colleges Economic & Workforce Development Program -Orange County Digital Media Center and North Orange County Community College District supports the County of Orange

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7 Connected OC Broadband Project Payback Period Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Name of Service Offering Customer type Subscribers: Qtr 4 Qtr 4 Qtr 4 Qtr 4 Qtr 4 Qtr 4 Qtr 4 Qtr 4 Qtr 4 Red Zone Network Qualifying low income households Cumulative 0 0 3,500 9,500 12,500 13,800 14,800 15,800 16,800 Net Add 0 0 1,500 1, Projected revenue (Red Zone Network): $ $ $ 315,000 $ 990,000 $ 1,372,500 $ 1,532,250 $ 1,644,750 $ 1,757,250 $ 1,869,750 Payback Period: Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Total Total Cost 0 50,000 1,349, , , , , ,720,600 Total Benefit 0 35,000 1,938,300 1,172,000 1,372,250 1,532,250 1,644,750 1,757,250 1,869,750 11,321,550 Net Benefits 0 (15,000) 589, , , , ,350 1,757,250 1,869,750 6,600,950 Cumulative Net Benefits 0 (15,000) 574, ,900 1,457,750 2,159,600 2,973,950 4,731,200 6,600,950 ROI % Explanation of Methodology: Countywide Public Safety Network: Rate of subscriptions was based on rate at which network site installations will complete. Assumes 100% of eligible public safety agencies will opt in due to demand for interoperable high speed data networking among jurisdictions. Subscriber base will remain stable after that time, since growth in the number of public safety agencies countywide is low. Red Zone Network: Service area total households equals 78,000. Assuming current broadband adoption is 50% or less, there are 39,000 or more possible households that could participate in the low cost Internet program. Quarterly growth rate in number of households subscribing to the program assumed to be slightly less than 1%/quarter (500 households/quarter). Annual growth rate in number of households subscribing to the program assumed to be about 3%/year (2000 households/year). Higher growth rates are assumed shortly after the network launches and public awareness of the program spurs rise in demand. Expect adoption to taper off and sustain 3% growth afterwards. "Projected revenue" indicates expected revenue from subscriptions ($15/month connect fee), prorated to reflect adoption over time, and is used in pro forma financial projections. For simplicity, it is assumed that number of subscribers lost to attrition is balanced on a 1 for 1 basis with signing of new accounts (net zero revenue impact). 4/21/10 Page 7 of 10

Zone Network): $ $ $ 315,000 $ 990,000 $ 1,372,500 $ 1,532,250 $ 1,644,750 $ 1,757,250 $ 1,869,750 Payback Period: Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Total Total Cost 0

8 Years 1 & 2 (Project Phase) Item Unit Cost Qty Ext. LOW-COST INTERNET WIRELESS EXPENSE: Wi-Fi (802.x) mesh wireless access points $3, $2,100,000 Network Operations Center setup (one time, by professional network co.) $149,000 1 $149,000 Detailed Network Design $50,000 1 $50,000 Deployment of 600 access points (one time) $1, $720,000 Mounting Assets I Pole Make Ready Contingency, 600 access points (one time) $ $60,000 Low-Cost Internet Wireless expense subtotal: $3,079,000 Less Stimulus Grant (70%) $2,155,300 County's Required 30% Match $923,700 Funding sources for the match: In-kind Project management and support staff contributed by CEO/CEO-IT) $490,000 Net County Cost (NCC) $433,700 Year 3 and Beyond (Operations & Maintenance) Item Unit Cost Qty Ext. LOW-COST INTERNET WIRELESS EXPENSE: Backhaul, ongoing $120,000 1 $120,000 Network Maintenance/Monitoring, ongoing $120,000 1 $120,000 Utilities (Wi-Fi access point electric power), ongoing $14,400 1 $14,400 Leasing (pole/structure attachment fees), ongoing $72,000 1 $72,000 Program administration (0.5 FTE, CEO) $84,000 1 $84,000 Low-Cost Internet Wireless expense subtotal: $410,400 Cost offsets: Revenues projected from subscriptions charged to participating households (revenues $990,000 increase/decrease in direct proportion to subscriber-base) Net County Revenue - Year 3 1 $579,600 1 Revenue projected to increase in successive years. 4/21/10 Page 8 of 10

) $149,000 1 $149,000 Detailed Network Design $50,000 1 $50,000 Deployment of 600 access points (one time) $1,200 600 $720,000 Mounting Assets I Pole Make Ready Contingency, 600 access points (one

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