Using Predictive Analytics to Increase Profitability Part II

Transcription

1 Using Predictive Analytics to Increase Profitability Part II Jay Roy Chief Strategy Officer Practical Intelligence for Ensuring Profitability Fall 2011 Dallas, TX

2 Table of Contents A Brief Review of Part I and Takeaways 2 Industries Maximizing the Use of Predictive Analytics 6 How Companies are Using Predictive Analytics 8 The Choice of Strategy Impacts Profitability Metrics 17 The Real Business Intelligence BI Infrastructure that Generates Profits 19 Profiting from Data Mining from the Past and the Future 22 Do Analytics Really Make a Difference for Performance and Profitability? Beginning the Journey towards Predictive Analytics and Dashboards Conclusion and Takeaways Predictive Dashboards LLC 1

3 A Brief Review of Part I and Takeaways 2

4 Review and Takeaways Definition of Predictive Analytics? Predictive models exploit patterns found in historical and transactional data to identify risks and opportunities. Models capture relationships among many factors to allow assessment of risk or potential associated with a particular set of conditions, guiding decision making for candidate transactions. Any solution that supports the identification of meaningful patterns and correlations among variables in complex, structured and unstructured, historical, and potential future data sets for the purposes of predicting future events and assessing the attractiveness of various courses of action Predictive Dashboards LLC 3

5 What is Predictive Analytics? Using predictive analytics is like driving your car and watching traffic through the front windshield, anticipating traffic, making course corrections to avoid traffic jams and getting there faster and safer vs. Using traditional analytics is like driving your car using the rear-view mirror 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 4

6 Review & Takeaways Conclusion: Business Intelligence begins with your organization s strategy and business model and only then should performance metrics and analytics be appropriately conceived and deployed Takeaway: It is not enough to be state of the art in BI technologies. Without an understanding and a common language between the business people and BI professionals, BI efforts will fall short of desired results Takeaway: Predictive Analytics is the capability to see relationships between business drivers and performance and the ability to model these relationships to provide organizational visibility and improve profitability 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 5

7 Industries Maximizing the Use of Predictive Analytics 6

8 Industries Using Predictive Analytics Predictive Analytics function in any industry Early adopters include the following: Healthcare Insurance Internet/Technology Financial Services Why have these industries become early adopters? Need for differentiated offerings targeted to unique customer segments in order to maintain margins in hyper-competitive and commoditized markets Leveraging data into insights allows companies to generate new products and revenue streams Timely and reliable fact-based decision making has led to predictable earnings 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 7

9 How Companies Are Using Predictive Analytics 8

10 How Companies Are Using Predictive Analytics The New Intelligent Enterprise Study, Fall 2010 The top functional areas using predictive analytics: 1. Finance 2. Strategy 3. Operations 4. Sales & Marketing 5. R&D Key Conclusion of Study: Overall, higher-performing organizations are almost three times more likely to use analytics in their business activities than lower performers 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 9

11 Example Companies Using Predictive Analytics Applications for Predictive Analytics include: Risk Management, Customer Loyalty, Strategy & Business Model Development TD Bank, Inc. uses predictive analytics for risk management practices Impact: minimizes losses in turbulent times to help ensure predictable earnings Amazon.com, Inc. uses predictive analytics for tracking customer opportunities, risks and behaviors Impact: enjoys customer loyalty and develops new revenue streams Netflix, Inc. uses predictive analytics to drive its strategy and business model, impacting its customer profiles Impact: killing bricks & mortar video store rental model 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 10

12 How Companies Are Using Predictive Analytics The New Intelligent Enterprise Study, Fall 2011* The top business objectives for the next two years: 1. Growing revenue 2. Reducing costs and increasing efficiencies 3. Innovating to achieve competitive differentiation^ 4. Growing profits 5. Penetrating new markets/geographies 6. Profitably acquiring and retaining customers The New Intelligent Enterprise Study, Fall 2010: 1. Innovating to achieve competitive differentiation * Excerpted from preview of upcoming MIT Sloan Study ^ Ranks 3 rd in current year Excerpted from preview of upcoming MIT Sloan Study 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 11

13 How Companies Are Using Predictive Analytics The application of predictive analytics can yield both measurable quantitative and qualitative results - such as improvements in employee and customer satisfaction Tom Davenport Professor, Babson College Workforce metrics can be used to predict employee shortages/excesses to staff up or down in key growth areas, or to identify knowledge management risks for retiring employees before those risks are known to managers 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 12

14 How Companies Are Using Predictive Analytics Leading indicators can be derived from management frameworks such as Balanced Scorecard (BSC) 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 13

15 How Companies Are Using Predictive Analytics Customer Loyalty and churn metrics can be predicted using frameworks such as Net Promoter Score, which uses structured survey data/scores to improve top-line revenue growth, word of mouth referral rates and customer satisfaction 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 14

16 How Companies Are Using Predictive Analytics - Internally Focused Sales and Marketing Focus Applications using Predictive Analytics: Customer Profitability Customer Life Time Value Customer Loyalty and Churn Sales Pipeline Forecasting Operations Focus Applications using Predictive Analytics: Call Center & Performance Inventory Management & Turnover E-commerce & Web Analytics Defective Quality Rates Enterprise Focus Applications using Predictive Analytics: EBITDA Forecasting Share Price Prediction Bank Covenant Compliance M&A - Due Diligence Analyses Functional Focus Applications using Predictive Analytics: HR Employee Turnover & Attrition Supply Chain Demand Forecasting Strategy New Market Development Finance Profit Planning 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 15

17 How Companies Are Using Predictive Analytics - Externally Focused Customer Focus Applications of Predictive Analytics: Pricing/Profitability Sensitivity Market Segmentation Marketing Optimization Strategies Web Analytics Competitor Focus Application of Predictive Analytics: Benchmarking Cycle Time Market Share Analytics Productivity Analytics Macro-Economic Focus Applications of Predictive Analytics: Strategy Development & Forecasting Share Price Prediction Environmental Scanning Value Chain/Industry Analysis Functional Focus Applications of Predictive Analytics: Operations Customer Service Innovation New Product Development Strategy Joint Ventures & Partnerships Finance EVA & EBITDA Comparisons 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 16

18 The Choice of Strategy Impacts Profitability Metrics 17

19 The Choice of Strategy Impacts Profitability Metrics Harvard Business School Professor, Michael Porter, defined strategies in three general categories: 1. Cost Leadership Strategy 2. Differentiation Strategy 3. Market Segmentation Focus Strategy Choosing one of the three strategic thrusts to obtain competitive advantage in the marketplace, requires companies to develop distinctive core competencies and associated performance and profitability metrics Once a strategy is chosen, there should be an alignment between the organization s measures and the methods used to achieve profitability Example: choosing a customer intimacy strategy (market segmentation), your company would invest heavily in a CRM (Customer Relationship Management) system and focus on metrics like segment profitability and customer loyalty rates 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 18

20 The Real BI Infrastructure that Generates Profits 19

21 The Real BI Infrastructure that Generates Profits Business Intelligence Infrastructure is most commonly thought of as tangible assets (software, hardware, networks, etc.) but this overlooks the real value of the infrastructure which are the human and intangible assets Human and Intangible Assets include: 1. Corporate Culture, inclusive of Leadership 2. Predictive Models and Key Business Drivers 3. Expertise of Personnel in Understanding Models and Information 4. Strategy, Business Model and Business Processes 5. Application of Information and Insights by Management 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 20

22 The Real BI Infrastructure that Generates Profits Without tangible & intangible infrastructure - i.e. solid business processes, predictive models, talented personnel, and defined outcomes (behaviors, events, and results, insights) predictive analytics is not possible 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 21

23 Profiting from Data Mining from the Past and the Future 22

24 Profiting from Data Mining from the Past Data mining is an information extraction activity for the purpose of systematically analyzing data to discover hidden relationships to prove or disprove hypotheses about data and information Many companies have made large investments in data warehouses and data mining technologies, but their investments from intelligence have not resulted in equally large ROI Data mining often results in generic trends about customers and competitors because most effort is expended learning about the past information Typically and unfortunately, data mining focuses on answering: What happened? Learning about the past provides a limited degree of business intelligence 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 23

25 Levels of Value for Data Mining External Location of Data Profitability Data Mining for Insights Planning for the Future Internal Data Mining for Reporting Learning about the Past Structured Type of Data Unstructured 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 24

26 Profiting from Data Mining about the Future Predictive analytics focuses on answering: What may happen? Data mining becomes much more valuable if it generates specific insights about customers and competitors Using NPS for predicting when a dissatisfied customer may potentially leave and formulating a strategy to prevent this. Obviously this much more valuable than knowing after the fact Predictive analytics generally requires more sophisticated information and analysis than business/financial reporting Data mining of structured and unstructured data (e.g. free form info from blogs) within and outside of the organization is of greater value when used to predict behaviors of customers, competitors and the environment 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 25

27 Where Predictive Analytics Ranks and its Value Type of Analysis Key Question We live here! Competitive Advantage Analytics Reporting Decision Optimization Predictive Analytics Forecasting Statistical models Alerts Query/drill down Ad hoc reports Standard reports What s the best that can happen? What will happen next? What if these trends continue? Why is this happening? What actions are needed? Where exactly is the problem? How many, how often, where? What happened? Degree of Intelligence Source: Competing on Analytics 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 26

28 Do Analytics Really Make a Difference for Performance and Profitability? 27

29 Do Analytics Really Make a Difference for Performance and Profitability? The New Intelligent Enterprise Study, Fall 2010 Do Analytics make difference in organizational performance? Resounding Yes! 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 28

30 Do Analytics Really Make a Difference for Performance and Profitability? The New Intelligent Enterprise Study, Fall 2010 Continuous Improvement is the mantra The Rich keep getting richer! 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 29

31 Do Analytics Really Make a Difference for Performance and Profitability? The New Intelligent Enterprise Study, Fall 2010 Analytics are a strategic weapon for competitive advantage 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 30

32 Do Analytics Really Make a Difference for Performance and Profitability? The New Intelligent Enterprise Study, Fall 2010 Traditionally, companies relied on the following tools: 1. Trend analysis and forecasting 2. Standardized reports 3. Data visualizations Top three changes in usage of analytics in the next 24 months: 1. Data visualizations (i.e. Dashboards) 2. Simulations and scenario development 3. Analytics applied to various business processes 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 31

33 Beginning the Journey towards Predictive Analytics and Dashboards 32

34 Beginning the Journey The Road to Profitability The journey towards predictive analytics towards can be challenging if you don t have the right road map and tool set Predictive Dashboards makes the journey easier with knowing the roadmap and providing easy to use dashboard tools (see example of Predictive Insight) Beginning the journey can be overwhelming, but the decision of where to start is quite flexible from either top-down from your strategy to your metrics or bottom-up from metrics to your strategy (see following slide) Dashboards are effective tools to keep managers and employees focused on metrics that count and can move the needle significantly 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 33

35 Beginning the Journey Easy to Use Roadmap External Environmental (Inputs) Technology changes Market changes Competitor changes Political changes 1 Organizational Results (Outputs) Data & Information KPIs/Metrics & Analytics Management Reports Dashboard Updates/Changes Strategic Planning Processes 2 3 Business Processes Organizational Resources 5 4 Configured BI/ IT Systems Your Enterprise 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 34

36 Beginning the Journey Easy to Use Dashboard with Business Drivers Notice the various business drivers under Company Metrics and its predictive graphs below Predictive Dashboards LLC 35

37 Beginning the Journey Aligning Processes with Business Drivers on Your Dashboard The metrics used on a dashboard should be representative of the strategic thrust, business model and the capabilities used to compete on * Q: How many metrics should be on a strategic dashboard? * A: No more than 6-8 strategic metrics before losing focus The key is to find a few metrics that truly reflect the strategic priorities * The metrics on the dashboard are the business drivers of financial performance * 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 36

38 Beginning the Journey Predictive Dashboard to Increase Profitability We predict a net income change of $ 326,832 for increase in sales in July, August and Sept Predictive Dashboards LLC 37

39 Conclusion & Takeaways 38

40 Conclusion & Takeaways Conclusion: Predictive Analytics has a variety of uses in all industries and functional areas and organizations can improve their profitability in a number of ways. The choice for doing so depends on your strategy and tactics as well as the areas needing greatest improvement Takeaway: Using analytics requires more than state-ofthe-art technology; it also requires talented individuals who have the ability to analyze and mine the data to glean the insights to improve profitability Takeaway: If you are not using analytics to improve your organization, be aware that your competition is and that the longer you delay, the bigger the chasm between you and them 2011 Predictive Dashboards LLC 39

41 Sources, References, and Trademarks Analytics at Work, 2010, Thomas H. Davenport, Jeanne G. Harris MIT Sloan Management Review, The New Intelligent Enterprise Study, Fall 2010 The Balanced Scorecard, 1996, Robert S. Kaplan, David P. Norton Strategy from the Outside In, Profiting from Customer Value, 2010, George S. Day & Christine Moorman* The Lego Minifigure is a trade mark of The Lego Group Clipart provided by OCAL and Predictive Dashboards LLC 40

42 Sources, References, and Trademarks The Ultimate Question, Driving Good Profits and True Growth, 2006 Fred Reichheld Net Promoter is a trademark of Satmetrix, Inc. and Fred Reichheld Competing on Analytics, 2007, Thomas H. Davenport, Jeanne G. Harris Netflix logo is a trademark of Netflix, Inc. TD Bank logo is a trademark of, The Toronto Dominion Bank Amazon logo is a trademark of Amazon, Inc Predictive Dashboards LLC 41

43 Using Predictive Analytics to Increase Profitability Part II Jay Roy, Chief Strategy Officer T: