New South Wales Elections 1999

Transcription

1 NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE New South Wales Elections 1999 by Antony Green Background Paper No 4/99

2 RELATED PUBLICATIONS C 1997/98 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries by Antony Green, Background Paper 4/98 ISSN ISBN X August Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, with the prior written consent from the Librarian, New South Wales Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the New South Wales Parliamentary Library.

3 NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE Dr David Clune, Manager... (02) Dr Gareth Griffith, Senior Research Officer, Politics and Government / Law... (02) Ms Rachel Simpson, Research Officer, Law... (02) Mr Stewart Smith, Research Officer, Environment... (02) Ms Marie Swain, Research Officer, Law/Social Issues... (02) Mr John Wilkinson, Research Officer, Economics... (02) The Author Antony Green is an Election Analyst with ABC-Television, and has worked for the ABC on every state and federal election coverage since He also writes regularly on electoral matters for the Sydney Morning Herald. Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. Antony has prepared a number of publications for the Parliamentary Library on different aspects on New South Wales electoral politics. Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at:

4 CONTENTS Introduction... 1 Legislative Assembly Election Summary of Legislative Assembly Results... 5 Legislative Assembly Results by Electoral Division Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results Regional Summaries By-elections Legislative Council Election Summary of Legislative Council Result Detail of Legislative Council Primary Votes Summary of Redistribution Distribution of Legislative Assembly Preferences by Party The Impact of Optional Preferential Voting... 68

5 Symbols.. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting MP... 'Ghost' candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election. Party Abbreviations (blank) Non-Affiliated Candidates AFI Australians Against Further Immigration ALP Labor Party CDP Christian Democratic Party CEC Citizens Electoral Council COM Communist Party DEM Australian Democrats DSL Democratic Socialist Electoral League ERP Euthanasia Referendum Party ES Earthsave IND Independents IP Re-elect Ivan Petch Peoples Envoy Ryde GOS Gun Owners and Sporting Hunters Party GRN The Greens LAW Natural Law Party LIB Liberal Party NAN No Aircraft Noise NAT National Party NBC No Badgerys Creek Airport NCP Non-Custodial Parents Party ONP Pauline Hanson's One Nation ORP Outdoor Recreation Party OTH Others PF People First R2P Republic 2001 Party SEP Socialist Equality Party TCW Timbarra Clean Water Party UNI Unity VOP Voice of the People Party Important Dates Issue of Writs Monday 8 March 1999 Close of Rolls Monday 8 March 1999 Close of Nominations Thursday 11 March 1999 Lodgement of Group Voting Tickets Friday 12 March 1999 How to vote registration Thursday 18 March 1999 Polling Day Saturday 27 March 1999

6 INTRODUCTION This paper contains a summary of the 1999 New South Wales election. It contains details of voting for all Legislative Assembly districts, as well as primary votes for the Legislative Council. A summary of the 1998 electoral redistribution is also included to assist in understanding the results, and there are several tables analysing the distribution of preferences in the Legislative Assembly, and the impact of optional preferential voting. For each Legislative Assembly electorate, full details of primary and two-candidate preferred votes are provided. Where appropriate, a two-party preferred count is also provided. (See note on twocandidate and two-party preferred vote below). The format and calculations used in the electorate results are as follows. : The votes shown for each candidate are the total primary votes received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each electorate. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the previous election (adjusted for the new electoral boundaries) from the percentage received at the current election. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the previous election, ghost candidates (indicated by "...") have been included representing candidates not contesting the current election. As a result, all primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. : Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the final distribution of preferences in an electorate. All votes that did not indicate a preference to the two remaining candidates are included in the total listed as Exhausted. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote by the votes remaining in the count, that is the formal vote minus the exhausted vote. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the previous election, adjusted for the redistribution. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differ from the previous election (e.g. Albury), a ghost candidate appears, and three swing figures are shown. A twoparty preferred count is also provided in these electorates. Two-Candidate versus Two-Party Preferred results To win an electorate, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote after the distribution of preferences. This is carried out by successively excluding the candidate with the lowest primary vote, and distributing those votes as preferences to candidates remaining in the count. At the end of the count, the vote for the two remaining candidates is referred to as the 'two-candidate preferred count'. In most electorates, this will also be the same as the 'two-party preferred' vote, representing the final distribution of preferences between candidates representing the Labor Party, and the Liberal and National Party Coalition. However, there were 10 electorates at the 1999 New South Wales election that did not finish with a two-party preferred count. In Bligh, Cabramatta, Keira and Tamworth, the two-candidate preferred count was between Labor and Independent candidates, in Albury and Manly between Liberal and Independent candidates, and between National and Independent candidates in Dubbo and Northern Tablelands. Cessnock finished as a contest between Labor and One Nation, and Marrickville a contest between Labor and the Greens. In these electorates, the New South Wales Electoral Commissioner, Mr Ian Dickson, undertook an additional two-party preferred count for information purposes. These have been made available for the first time in this publication. At the 1995 election, two party preferred counts were not available for the electorates of Bligh, Manly, Marrickville, Port Jackson and Tamworth. In the first four of these electorates, an estimate of twoparty preferred count has been made. In Tamworth, there was no Coalition candidate in 1995, so the two-candidate preferred vote of Independent Tony Windsor has been used as the two-party preferred count. 1

7 Two-Party Preferred Estimates in Tamworth In 1995, Tamworth was not contested by a Coalition candidate, and the two-candidate preferred vote for Independent Tony Windsor has been used as the Coalition two-party preferred vote. However, a National Party candidate nominated in 1999, and very different two-party preferred swings are produced for Tamworth, depending on whether Tony Windor's two-candidate vote is used as the non- Labor two-party preferred vote, or the special distribution between the Labor and National Party candidates. Throughout this publication, the distribution between Labor and the National Party has been used. However, this inflates the swing to Labor between the two elections, so the following tables compare the impact on regional totals of using the two different counts. % Using Labor/Windsor Count % Using Labor/National Count Electorate/Region ALP Lib/Nat Swing ALP Lib/Nat Swing Tamworth to Lib/Nat to Labor Western Country to Labor to Labor Country to Labor to Labor Statewide to Labor to Labor Corrections to Two-Party Preferred estimates for 1995 Election In my publication "NSW Elections 1995" (NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service Background Paper 1995/4), I provided estimated two-party preferred results for Bligh, Manly, Marrickville and Port Jackson. When preparing a later publications on the 1998 redistribution, it became apparent that my estimates were not accurate. After making better assumptions about the distribution of preferences, I used the new estimates to calculate the redistribution. For completeness, the new estimates for the four electorates on the old boundaries at the 1995 election are as follows Electorate Old Estimate New Estimate Bligh LIB 10.3 LIB 3.4 Manly LIB 15.8 LIB 14.1 Marrickville ALP 24.0 ALP 26.8 Port Jackson ALP 21.6 ALP 23.7 As a result of these changes, the estimated statewide Labor two-party preferred vote rises from 48.8% to 49.0%. Corrections to Redistribution Calculations Full details of the 1997/98 redistribution were provided in my publication "1997/98 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries" (NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service Background Paper 4/98). Following finalisation of the polling places to be used for the 1999 election, I made a number of minor adjustments to the figures originally published. The corrected estimates for the new boundaries have been included in this publication, and can be found on Pages These include the estimates of two-party and two-candidate preferred votes for electorates that contained parts of the five electorates that finished as two-candidate contests in

8 By-Elections and Sitting MP Indicators The redistribution calculations are based on the results of the 1995 election, and ignore by-elections. This includes the May 1996 Clarence by-election, which resulted in the Labor Party gaining the seat from the National Party. However, while the calculations have ignored the by-election, Mr Harry Woods has been shown as the sitting MP for Clarence. An asterisk "*" is used to indicate any candidate who was a sitting Legislative Assembly MP. As a result, in the electorates of Heathcote, Maitland, Ryde and Strathfield, two candidates are shown as sitting MPs. In a number of other electorates, MPs are shown as sitting members of seats they did not represent before the election. Details of MPs who retired or changed seats, along with the re-calculated margins in all seats can be found on pages Disclaimer All redistribution calculations have been performed by the author, by transferring booths to conform to the new electoral boundaries. All results for the 1999 election are based on results made available by the NSW State Electoral Office. However, responsibility for all calculations and omissions is taken by the author. Note that due to rounding errors, some tables do not add to exactly 100%. Acknowledgements My thanks to the NSW Electoral Commissioner, Mr Ian Dickson, for all his assistance in providing the results of the state election. My particular thanks go to two members of his staff, Mr John Fullarton, and Ms Monica Floyd, for their assistance in providing and verifying the election results in computer readable format. 3

9 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY STATE-WIDE TOTALS ROLL Candi- Seats Party dates Won Change Votes % Vote Swing Labor Party Liberal Party National Party Pauline Hanson's One Nation Independents Greens Australian Democrats Christian Democrats Unity Australians Against Further Immigration Earthsave Ivan Petch Citizens Electoral Council Democratic Socialist League Outdoor Recreation Party Non-Custodial Parents Party No Badgerys Creek Airport Party Timbarra Clean Water Party Gun Owners & Sporting Hunters Pa Euthanasia Referendum Party Communist Party Natural Law Party Republic 2001 Party Socialist Equality Party People First Voice of the People Party Others Formal Informal Total Votes Seats Changing Hands Labor Party gains from Liberal Party (7) Labor Party gains from National Party (2) Independent gains from National Party (2) National Party gain from Liberal Party (1) Georges River Maitland Menai Miranda Ryde South Coast Strathfield Murray-Darling Tweed Dubbo Northern Tablelands Burrinjuck NOTE: Clarence had been gained by Labor at a 1996 by-election 5

10 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES BY ELECTORATE Electoral First Preference Votes Informal Total District ALP LIB NAT ONP Other Votes Votes Roll Albury Auburn Ballina Bankstown Barwon Bathurst Baulkham Hills Bega Blacktown Bligh Blue Mountains Burrinjuck Cabramatta Camden Campbelltown Canterbury Cessnock Charlestown Clarence Coffs Harbour Coogee Cronulla Davidson Drummoyne Dubbo East Hills Epping Fairfield Georges River Gosford Granville Hawkesbury Heathcote Heffron Hornsby Illawarra Keira Kiama Kogarah Ku-ring-gai Lachlan Lake Macquarie Lakemba Lane Cove Lismore Liverpool Londonderry Macquarie Fields Maitland Manly Maroubra Marrickville

11 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES (Continued) Electoral First Preference Votes Informal Total District ALP LIB NAT ONP Other Votes Votes Roll Menai Miranda Monaro Mount Druitt Mulgoa Murray-Darling Murrumbidgee Myall Lakes Newcastle North Shore Northern Tablelands Orange Oxley Parramatta Peats Penrith Pittwater Port Jackson Port Macquarie Port Stephens Riverstone Rockdale Ryde Smithfield South Coast Southern Highlands Strathfield Swansea Tamworth The Entrance The Hills Tweed Upper Hunter Vaucluse Wagga Wagga Wakehurst Wallsend Wentworthville Willoughby Wollongong Wyong TOTAL

12 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF PERCENTAGE VOTE BY ELECTORATE Electoral Percentage of First Preference Votes Informal District ALP LIB NAT ONP Other Votes Turnout Albury Auburn Ballina Bankstown Barwon Bathurst Baulkham Hills Bega Blacktown Bligh Blue Mountains Burrinjuck Cabramatta Camden Campbelltown Canterbury Cessnock Charlestown Clarence Coffs Harbour Coogee Cronulla Davidson Drummoyne Dubbo East Hills Epping Fairfield Georges River Gosford Granville Hawkesbury Heathcote Heffron Hornsby Illawarra Keira Kiama Kogarah Ku-ring-gai Lachlan Lake Macquarie Lakemba Lane Cove Lismore Liverpool Londonderry Macquarie Fields Maitland Manly Maroubra Marrickville

13 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF PERCENTAGE VOTE BY ELECTORATE (Continued) Electoral Percentage of First Preference Votes Informal District ALP LIB NAT ONP Other Votes Turnout Menai Miranda Monaro Mount Druitt Mulgoa Murray-Darling Murrumbidgee Myall Lakes Newcastle North Shore Northern Tablelands Orange Oxley Parramatta Peats Penrith Pittwater Port Jackson Port Macquarie Port Stephens Riverstone Rockdale Ryde Smithfield South Coast Southern Highlands Strathfield Swansea Tamworth The Entrance The Hills Tweed Upper Hunter Vaucluse Wagga Wagga Wakehurst Wallsend Wentworthville Willoughby Wollongong Wyong TOTAL

14 ELECTORATE RESULTS Albury Roll Glachan * LIB Douglas IND O'Donnell ALP Smith ONP NAT OTH Glachan * LIB Douglas IND O'Donnell ALP Exhausted Two-Party Preferred Glachan * LIB O'Donnell ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Auburn Roll Yakup UNI Nagle * ALP Bentley DSL O'Connor ONP Borluk LIB Johnson AFI McDermott DEM Ash GRN OTH Nagle * ALP Borluk LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Ballina Roll Robertson DEM MacGregor IND Arnold TCW Ward ES Flower GRN Page * NAT Gosper CDP Dakin ALP OTH Page * NAT Dakin ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Bankstown Roll Ashe ONP Barrett LIB Phillips SEP Stewart * ALP Walsh GRN Botting DEM Bastin AFI Meguid UNI Laurence CDP OTH Barrett LIB Stewart * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total

15 Barwon Roll Dillon ALP Cooke CEC Johns ONP Slack-Smith * NAT Graham DEM OTH Dillon ALP Slack-Smith * NAT Exhausted Formal Informal Total Bathurst Roll McGinnes IND Bray IND Rowe ONP Williams GRN Gurney ORP Grivas DEM Martin ALP Thompson NCP Simpson CEC Ashton AFI Wilson NAT Berry LIB Martin ALP Wilson NAT Exhausted Formal Informal Total Baulkham Hills Roll Ferrara DEM Merton * LIB Schultejohann ONP Hay ALP Wong UNI Harris GRN Marshall NCP King AFI OTH Merton * LIB Hay ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Bega Roll Smith * LIB Paris IND Freihaut GRN Boland ALP Innes ONP Redmond DEM OTH Smith * LIB Boland ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total

16 Blacktown Roll King DEM Sherwood AFI Bawden CDP Holder LIB Gibson * ALP Nixon ONP OTH Holder LIB Gibson * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Bligh Roll Marguin UNI Holdaway GRN Moore * IND Upton TCW Duncan IND Smith ALP Fussell LIB Hatfield LAW Trubridge ERP OTH Moore * IND Smith ALP Exhausted Two-Party Preferred Smith ALP Fussell LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Blue Mountains Roll Bell ES Anderson AFI Buckley ONP Grigg CDP Scott LIB Lear DEM Debus * ALP Doust GRN (Morris) IND OTH Scott LIB Debus * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Burrinjuck Roll Tarlinton ONP Cosgrove CEC Fraser DEM Green GRN Hodgkinson NAT McManus ALP Newborne CDP Schultz LIB Hodgkinson NAT McManus ALP Schultz LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total

17 Cabramatta Roll Cornish ONP Watson LIB Hua DEM Lambert IND Meagher * ALP Su UNI Kremec AFI Luke CDP Grant GRN Chapman IND OTH Watson LIB Lambert IND Meagher * ALP Exhausted Two-Party Preferred Watson LIB Meagher * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Camden Roll Kernohan * LIB Sanchez ALP Powell GRN Rosso ONP Thompson NCP Brazenall AFI Frawley IND OTH Kernohan * LIB Sanchez ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Campbelltown Roll Singh UNI Kearney GRN Franks AFI Churchill NCP Dawson ONP Hawker LIB Freeman IND Knight * ALP Dudley DEM OTH Hawker LIB Knight * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Canterbury Roll Moss * ALP Tzavellas IND Smith GRN Nam IND Robinson CDP Shakir ONP Vanderwel AFI Dalrymple DEM Koutsouras IND Baini LIB Wan UNI OTH Moss * ALP Baini LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total

18 Cessnock Roll Coure LIB Hickey ALP Ryan GRN Olsen IND Burston ONP OTH Coure LIB Hickey ALP Burston ONP Exhausted Two-Party Preferred Coure LIB Hickey ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Charlestown Roll Hunt IND Face * ALP Craig LIB Boswell CDP Jacobi GRN Sinclair ONP OTH Face * ALP Craig LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Clarence Roll Rooke GRN York DEM Mathew ONP Day LIB Cansdell NAT Stanmore CDP McMurtrie IND Milner ES Tiffen TCW Behn IND Woods * ALP OTH Cansdell NAT Woods * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total (NOTE: Swings based upon 1995 state election result adjusted for the redistribution, not the 1996 Clarence by-election) Coffs Harbour Roll Fraser * NAT Ansted AFI Sommer NCP Erglis IND Gardiner ONP Backman ES Williams ALP Cairns GRN Spencer DEM OTH Fraser * NAT Williams ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total

19 Coogee Roll Page * ALP Crow DEM Junee LIB Mullins ONP Black AFI Matson GRN OTH Page * ALP Junee LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Cronulla Roll Poulos IND Manasserian ONP Day DEM Smith CDP Docherty ALP Power GRN Kerr * LIB Feinbier AFI OTH Docherty ALP Kerr * LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Davidson Roll Golden ONP Humpherson * LIB Henderson DEM Ginges UNI Lawson ALP Weatherlake AFI Ratcliffe CDP Tuor GRN OTH Humpherson * LIB Lawson ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Drummoyne Roll Ferguson ONP Murray * ALP Doyle GRN Mavin AFI Andrews DEM Paull IND Lesslie IND Phelps LIB NAN CDP Murray * ALP Phelps LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total

20 Dubbo Roll Neville ONP Phillips GRN Keough IND Mutton NAT Mundine ALP McGrane IND Dunkerley DEM OTH Mutton NAT Mundine ALP McGrane IND Exhausted Two-Party Preferred Mutton NAT Mundine ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total East Hills Roll Moffat AFI Carver IND Charlton GRN Bounds ONP Parker IND Ashton ALP Meikle DEM Korovin LIB Coppolaro ES OTH Ashton ALP Korovin LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Epping Roll Parker GRN Tink * LIB Jacobs DEM Yoo UNI Bell AFI Gurney ALP Ball ONP Nanelli CDP OTH Tink * LIB Gurney ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Fairfield Roll Tripodi * ALP Vinnicombe ONP Ngo UNI Rohan LIB Gutierrez GRN Hua DEM Carey AFI Cogger LAW Haroon CDP Mackenzie NCP Aiken IND OTH Tripodi * ALP Rohan LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total

21 Georges River Roll McFarlane AFI Ficarra * LIB Greene ALP Tang IND Celik UNI Konnecke ONP Kaye GRN Bedwell IND OTH Ficarra * LIB Greene ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Gosford Roll Cohen ALP Weckert GRN McKenna IND Hartcher * LIB Bailey CDP Penfold DEM Gelling AFI Parker ES Baker ONP OTH Cohen ALP Hartcher * LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Granville Roll O'Connor ONP Wadsworth AFI Issa LIB Gillbank GRN Yeadon * ALP OTH Issa LIB Yeadon * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Hawkesbury Roll Howden GRN Bruggemann NCP Rozzoli * LIB Lawson ALP Rutter DEM Sheather IND Dakin AFI Belling IND Saxiones ONP OTH Rozzoli * LIB Lawson ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total

22 Heathcote Roll Lowder ONP McLoughlin ORP Lentern GRN Stone * LIB McManus * ALP Hughes AFI Holloway DEM Bowen CDP Tsui UNI OTH Stone * LIB McManus * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Heffron Roll Dobson AFI Keyte GRN Grusovin * ALP Taylor ONP Mendelssohn DEM Green DSL Canessa LIB OTH Grusovin * ALP Canessa LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Hornsby Roll Jansson ONP Douglas GRN Swallow DEM Howe IND Gallagher IND Cardamatis ALP Meany IND Mudgee AFI Zhang UNI O'Doherty * LIB CDP Cardamatis ALP O'Doherty * LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Illawarra Roll Hughes CDP Jordan LIB Bartholomew DEM Perrott DSL Mason IND Saliba ALP Andersen GRN Green AFI Prsa ONP Blayney NCP Jordan LIB Saliba ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total

23 Keira Roll Curtis ONP Nederkoorn IND Gozzard ES O'Neill CDP Akhurst LIB Campbell ALP Hamilton AFI Martin IND DEM GRN Akhurst LIB Campbell ALP Martin IND Exhausted Two-Party Preferred Akhurst LIB Campbell ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Kiama Roll Collier DEM Brown ALP Murray AFI Mifsud LIB Kadwell CDP McLeod IND Bradley GRN Orr ONP Brown ALP Mifsud LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Kogarah Roll Chan IND Witheridge LIB Kanak GRN Ison CDP Crompton IND Uzunoski UNI Peniazev NCP Jones ORP Burton ALP Whalen AFI Baird ONP OTH Witheridge LIB Burton ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Ku-ring-gai Roll Ayres CDP O'Farrell * LIB Webeck ONP Ryder LAW Halliday DEM Chehoff AFI Burke GRN Butland ALP OTH O'Farrell * LIB Butland ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total

24 Lachlan Roll Armstrong * NAT Reid ONP Lord ALP Mulligan DEM Durrant GRN LIB OTH Armstrong * NAT Lord ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Lake Macquarie Roll Boulton AFI Payne LIB Gourlay CDP Johnson ONP Hunter * ALP Blyth GRN DEM Payne LIB Hunter * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Lakemba Roll Harcourt-Norton DEM Rindermann AFI Orme GRN May ONP Powe ALP Chikarovski * LIB NAN OTH Powe ALP Chikarovski * LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Lismore Roll Dhu CDP Canales IND George NAT Corkill GRN Thorpe ES Howard LIB Bell ALP Ward TCW Wunsch DSL Walsh DEM OTH George NAT Bell ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Moody AFI Iemma * ALP Newman DEM Abou-Ghaida ONP Hawatt LIB Coorey IND OTH Iemma * ALP Hawatt LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Lane Cove Roll

25 Liverpool Roll Barker LIB Lynch * ALP Coleman AFI Costa UNI Sanders NCP Henshaw CEC Smith ONP OTH Barker LIB Lynch * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Macquarie Fields Roll Knowles * ALP Field AFI Allen IND Lang DEM Thompson NCP Horton ONP Rowell LIB OTH Knowles * ALP Rowell LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Londonderry Roll Anderson * ALP Burke ONP Bailey IND Conolly LIB Holmes NCP Phillips CDP Gelling AFI Kingsley GRN Cassidy DEM OTH Anderson * ALP Conolly LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Maitland Roll Lawler CEC Blackmore * LIB Harper ONP Taylor ORP Kerslake CDP Price * ALP Lantry DEM Davis GRN Blackmore * LIB Price * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total

26 Manly Roll Stitt ORP de Montfort ALP Wong UNI Jones LIB Barr IND Howells DEM Ecroyd AFI Lambert GRN Ferguson ONP OTH Jones LIB Barr IND Exhausted Two-Party Preferred de Montfort ALP Jones LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Maroubra Roll Hassan UNI Faulkner LIB Corben DEM McEwen ONP Carr * ALP Paton AFI Bastable GRN OTH Faulkner LIB Carr * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Marrickville Roll Brown ONP Kenyon DEM Overend ERP Morris LIB Tadros IND Roberts GRN Bhattacharyya DSL Refshauge * ALP The UNI Hallett CDP NAN OTH Morris LIB Roberts GRN Refshauge * ALP Exhausted Two-Party Preferred Morris LIB Refshauge * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Menai Roll May IND Mayne DEM Hutton ONP Thomas LIB Megarrity ALP Wardle AFI McGoldrick GRN OTH Thomas LIB Megarrity ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total

27 Miranda Roll Nettle GRN Collier ALP Hickman DEM Remy ONP Eastwood AFI Phillips * LIB OTH Collier ALP Phillips * LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Monaro Roll Webb NAT Swift ONP Keegel IND Marjason LIB Moore GRN Durst ALP Fragiacomo IND Pangallo IND OTH Webb NAT Durst ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Mount Druitt Roll Reddy DEM Nolan GRN Wyness CDP Williams ONP Green LIB Toal UNI Girvan AFI Amery * ALP OTH Green LIB Amery * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Mulgoa Roll Hedges R2P Mathews ORP Horton GOS Beamer * ALP Grant GRN Lawson PF Owen DEM Putra ONP Mewett NBC Carey AFI Owens NCP Bourne LIB OTH Beamer * ALP Bourne LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total

28 Murray-Darling Roll Kersten NAT Black ALP Boyd CEC White NCP Burton DEM McKinnon ONP OTH Kersten NAT Black ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total McKenzie GRN Gaudry * ALP Criticos IND Cook SEP Brooks ONP Bisgrove DEM Brookman UNI Chaston CEC Williams LIB Payne DSL Gaudry * ALP Williams LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Murrumbidgee Roll Ramsay DEM Mulloy ONP Pittavino ALP Stroobants CEC Piccoli NAT Pittavino ALP Piccoli NAT Exhausted Formal Informal Total North Shore Roll Skinner * LIB Padgett DEM McDonald ALP Kelly ONP Bell GRN Dedman AFI Skinner * LIB McDonald ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Myall Lakes Roll Tuffy ALP Turner * NAT Deeney ONP Gill GRN Spragg AFI LIB OTH Tuffy ALP Turner * NAT Exhausted Formal Informal Total Newcastle Roll

29 Northern Tablelands Roll Webeck ONP Chappell * NAT Cooper DEM Schultz GRN Keogh IND Torbay IND Lawrence ALP OTH Chappell * NAT Torbay IND Lawrence ALP Exhausted Two-Party Preferred Chappell * NAT Lawrence ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Orange Roll Cox IND Turner * NAT Taylor ALP McKenzie DEM Nixon ONP McLennan CDP Watts GRN OTH Turner * NAT Taylor ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Oxley Roll Williams DEM Cavanagh GRN Argent ALP Stoner NAT Parkinson IND Green IND Henderson IND Willey ONP OTH Argent ALP Stoner NAT Exhausted Formal Informal Total Parramatta Roll Copping LIB Wright GRN Cogger LAW McCarthy UNI Butler AFI McMahon NCP Cooksley ONP Harrison * ALP Byrne DEM Moon DSL CDP Copping LIB Harrison * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total

30 Peats Roll Guo UNI Andrews * ALP King AFI Prest ONP Spencer CDP Lacey GRN Wales LIB Purcival ES Preece DEM IND Andrews * ALP Wales LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Pittwater Roll Boydell ALP Vlug NCP Bristow CDP Brogden * LIB Sonza ES Dimond DEM Ockenden GRN Whitmore AFI Cuthbertson ONP OTH Boydell ALP Brogden * LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Penrith Roll Harris-Ball IND Thompson NCP Eykamp ONP Edwards GRN Grim-Reaper IND Hooper IND Broderick IND Lo Po * ALP Villa DEM Morris AFI Grigg CDP Fowler LIB Rogers ES OTH Lo Po * ALP Fowler LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Port Jackson Roll Nori * ALP Burvill LAW Druery PF Malliate NCP Lennane IND Ryde GRN Doherty CPA Vescio ONP Furness DEM Loschiavo GOS Huxley LIB Carman DSL NAN CDP Nori * ALP Huxley LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total

31 Port Macquarie Roll Dachs AFI Riordan ALP Oakeshott * NAT Muldoon CEC Andersons GRN Sara ONP OTH Riordan ALP Oakeshott * NAT Exhausted Formal Informal Total Riverstone Roll Hawkins GRN King AFI Aquilina * ALP McIntyre LIB Peacock DEM Pettitt ONP CDP Aquilina * ALP McIntyre LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Port Stephens Roll Stevenson GRN King CEC McCann IND Robinson NAT Dover CDP Boyd DEM Bartlett ALP Conway ONP LIB Robinson NAT Bartlett ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Rockdale Roll Johnson IND Jones IND Chung DEM Taylor GRN Thompson * ALP Kaloudis LIB Ryan IND Gelling AFI Cardillo NCP Citton ONP OTH Thompson * ALP Kaloudis LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total

32 Ryde Roll Petch IP Mathews ORP Plumb DEM Shaw GRN Salmon PF Paton AFI Watkins * ALP Photios * LIB Knight IND Gao UNI King ONP OTH Watkins * ALP Photios * LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Smithfield Roll Robertson LIB Vega GRN Dutton ONP Scully * ALP Haroon CDP Nelson AFI Poularas DEM OTH Robertson LIB Scully * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total South Coast Roll Smith ALP Ellis * LIB Bowen AFI Bange GRN Ryan CDP Warn ONP OTH Smith ALP Ellis * LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Southern Highlands Roll Styles IND Taylor NCP Butler DEM Seaton * LIB Lavis AFI Clarke ONP Brown ALP Clark GRN OTH Seaton * LIB Brown ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total

33 Strathfield Roll Angel ORP Peterson CDP Cheung VOP Wu UNI MacCarthy * LIB Zeitoun ONP Soulos GRN Divola AFI Roper DSL Garrett DEM Whelan * ALP OTH MacCarthy * LIB Whelan * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Tamworth Roll Windsor * IND Mandel-Hayes ONP Barry ALP Cox NAT OTH Windsor * IND Barry ALP Exhausted Two-Party Preferred Barry ALP Cox NAT Exhausted Formal Informal Total (NOTE: See comment on two-party preferred result in Tamworth on Page 2) Swansea Roll Gorgievski GRN Wiltshire LIB Walls DEM Gardnir ONP Wood CDP Orkopoulos ALP OTH Wiltshire LIB Orkopoulos ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total The Entrance Roll Cantwell ONP McBride * ALP Alterator GRN Oates AFI Browning DEM Graham NAT Walker LIB Coulter ORP Russell CDP McBride * ALP Walker LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total

34 The Hills Roll Houssos ALP Fitzpatrick ONP Chung GRN McAuliffe DEM Baker AFI Gregory CDP Richardson * LIB Chan UNI OTH Houssos ALP Richardson * LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Tweed Roll Penhaligon IND Henderson DEM Tabart GRN Beck * NAT Hollis ES Newell ALP (Hurley) IND OTH Beck * NAT Newell ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Upper Hunter Roll Easey CEC Connor ALP Lawn ONP Paxton CDP Strachan GRN Souris * NAT LIB OTH Connor ALP Souris * NAT Exhausted Formal Informal Total Vaucluse Roll Weiner GRN Patch ALP Collings DEM Ford ONP Zylber ERP Debnam * LIB OTH Patch ALP Debnam * LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total

35 Wagga Wagga Roll Booth NAT Jerrick ONP McPherson ALP Campbell IND Graham DEM Dale IND Maguire LIB OTH McPherson ALP Maguire LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Wakehurst Roll Hampel AFI Hatten GRN Nelson ONP Hazzard * LIB Stokes ALP Russell DEM OTH Hazzard * LIB Stokes ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Wallsend Roll Murray CDP Thompson ONP Schroeder CEC Moroney GRN Piddington LIB Mills * ALP Piddington LIB Mills * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Wentworthville Roll Allan * ALP Jonsson CDP Chin UNI Merton LIB Filipczyk GRN Hutchinson ONP O'Leary AFI Rutledge DEM OTH Allan * ALP Merton LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total

36 Willoughby Roll Brasch ALP McGuire DEM Collins * LIB Markuse ONP Aukim ES McCallum AFI Brown GRN Wong UNI NAN IND Brasch ALP Collins * LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total Wyong Roll Nelson AFI Hastie ES Holten ONP Hopkins CDP Mott DEM Lamb LIB Crittenden * ALP OTH Lamb LIB Crittenden * ALP Exhausted Formal Informal Total Wollongong Roll Yue UNI Russell DEM James AFI Luvera DSL Markham * ALP Dickenson GRN Latz CDP McInerney LIB OTH Markham * ALP McInerney LIB Exhausted Formal Informal Total

37 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF TWO-PARTY RESULTS BY ELECTORATE Electoral 2PP Votes 2PP Percent District ALP Lib/Nat ALP Lib/Nat Swing Albury to Labor Auburn to Labor Ballina to Labor Bankstown to Labor Barwon to Labor Bathurst to Labor Baulkham Hills to Labor Bega to Labor Blacktown to Labor Bligh (1) to Labor Blue Mountains to Labor Burrinjuck to Labor Cabramatta to Labor Camden to Labor Campbelltown to Labor Canterbury to Labor Cessnock to Labor Charlestown to Labor Clarence to Labor Coffs Harbour to Labor Coogee to Labor Cronulla to Labor Davidson to Labor Drummoyne to Labor Dubbo to Labor East Hills to Labor Epping to Labor Fairfield to Labor Georges River to Labor Gosford to Labor Granville to Labor Hawkesbury to Labor Heathcote to Labor Heffron (1) to Labor Hornsby to Labor Illawarra to Labor Keira to Labor Kiama to Labor Kogarah to Labor Ku-ring-gai to Labor Lachlan to Labor Lake Macquarie to Labor Lakemba to Labor Lane Cove to Labor Lismore to Labor Liverpool to Labor Londonderry to Labor Macquarie Fields to Labor Maitland to Labor Manly (1) to Labor Maroubra to Labor Marrickville (1) to Labor 33

38 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SUMMARY OF TWO-PARTY RESULTS (Continued) Electoral 2PP Votes 2PP Percent District ALP Lib/Nat ALP Lib/Nat Swing Menai to Labor Miranda to Labor Monaro to Labor Mount Druitt to Labor Mulgoa to Labor Murray-Darling to Labor Murrumbidgee to Labor Myall Lakes to Labor Newcastle to Labor North Shore to Labor Northern Tablelands to Lib/Nat Orange to Labor Oxley to Labor Parramatta to Labor Peats to Labor Penrith to Labor Pittwater to Labor Port Jackson (1) to Labor Port Macquarie to Lib/Nat Port Stephens to Labor Riverstone to Labor Rockdale to Labor Ryde to Labor Smithfield to Labor South Coast to Labor Southern Highlands to Labor Strathfield to Labor Swansea to Labor Tamworth (2) to Labor The Entrance to Labor The Hills to Labor Tweed to Labor Upper Hunter to Labor Vaucluse (1) to Labor Wagga Wagga to Labor Wakehurst to Labor Wallsend to Labor Wentworthville to Labor Willoughby to Labor Wollongong to Labor Wyong to Labor State-wide Totals (2) to Labor Footnotes (1) - Swing based on estimate of two-party preferred result from 1995 (2) - See Page 2 for comment on the two-party preferred result in Tamworth 34

39 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : ACTUAL TWO-CANDIDATE PREFERRED RESULTS Winning Candidate Defeated Candidate Electorate Party Vote % Party Vote % Albury LIB IND Bligh IND ALP Cabramatta ALP IND Cessnock ALP ONP Dubbo IND NAT Keira ALP IND Manly IND LIB Marrickville ALP GRN Northern Tablelands IND NAT Tamworth IND ALP

40 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : ELECTORATES RANKED BY TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE Electorate Margin Electorate Margin Labor Seats (55) Bankstown 30.2 Cabramatta (18.9 vs IND) 29.9 Marrickville (21.5 vs GRN) 29.4 Wollongong 28.7 Liverpool 28.6 Fairfield 28.3 Heffron 26.1 Mount Druitt 25.8 Canterbury 25.2 Port Jackson 25.1 Lakemba 24.7 Auburn 24.3 Cessnock (22.6 vs ONP) 23.9 Macquarie Fields 23.5 Smithfield 22.8 Illawarra 22.8 Wallsend 22.6 Newcastle 22.4 Keira (7.9 vs IND) 22.1 Maroubra 19.9 Campbelltown 19.9 Blacktown 19.4 Charlestown 19.3 Lake Macquarie 19.2 East Hills 18.3 Bathurst 17.8 Kiama 17.7 Mulgoa 17.6 Riverstone 17.2 Penrith 16.7 Swansea 16.6 Rockdale 16.5 Wyong 15.5 Wentworthville 15.4 Londonderry 14.9 Granville 14.6 Parramatta 14.5 Port Stephens 12.3 Coogee 12.3 Blue Mountains 11.8 Bligh (IND HELD) 11.7 Peats 11.3 Heathcote 10.4 The Entrance 9.7 Drummoyne 9.4 Strathfield 8.4 Kogarah 7.5 Ryde 6.6 Georges River 6.3 Murray-Darling 4.2 Menai 4.2 Tweed 2.6 Miranda 2.3 Maitland 1.0 South Coast 0.5 Clarence 0.2 Liberal/National Seats (20/13) Davidson 21.1 Ku-ring-gai 20.0 Pittwater 18.8 Northern Tablelands (IND HELD) 17.7 Barwon (NAT) 17.2 Port Macquarie (NAT) 16.6 Lachlan (NAT) 16.3 Albury (1.0 vs IND) 14.8 The Hills 14.7 Hawkesbury 13.3 Myall Lakes (NAT) 12.9 Vaucluse 12.5 North Shore 12.3 Ballina (NAT) 12.0 Murrumbidgee (NAT) 12.0 Willoughby 11.1 Wakehurst 10.8 Dubbo (IND HELD) 10.5 Upper Hunter (NAT) 10.5 Manly (IND HELD) 9.4 Lismore (NAT) 8.5 Coffs Harbour (NAT) 8.3 Baulkham Hills 8.1 Oxley (NAT) 8.0 Wagga Wagga 7.5 Lane Cove 7.4 Bega 7.1 Epping 7.1 Orange (NAT) 6.3 Southern Highlands 5.7 Cronulla 5.1 Tamworth (IND HELD) 4.8 Camden 3.5 Hornsby 2.7 Gosford 2.3 Burrinjuck (NAT) 1.2 Monaro (NAT) 0.2 Independent Seats (5) Dubbo (vs NAT) 0.02 Manly (vs LIB) 1.3 Northern Tablelands (vs NAT) 9.4 Bligh (vs ALP) 9.8 Tamworth (vs ALP)

41 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : ELECTORATES RANKED BY TWO-PARTY SWING AGAINST LABOR Primary 2-Party Primary 2-Party Electorate Swing Swing Electorate Swing Swing Port Macquarie Northern Tablelands (2) Granville Coffs Harbour Lachlan Barwon Pittwater Port Jackson (1) Maitland Murrumbidgee Camden Albury (2) Port Stephens Kiama Gosford Londonderry Peats Mount Druitt Manly (1) (2) Lake Macquarie Wakehurst Myall Lakes Ballina Keira (2) Marrickville (1) (2) Tweed Lane Cove Vaucluse (1) Illawarra South Coast Cronulla Wagga Wagga Blacktown Charlestown Newcastle The Entrance Lismore Wyong Southern Highlands Swansea Burrinjuck Menai Wallsend Bligh (1) (2) Heffron (1) Maroubra Bega Footnotes (1) - 2-party preferred estimate for 1991 (2) - Uses 2-party preferred count for 1995 (3) - By-election ignored '+' indicates a swing to Labor, '-' a swing against Labor. Oxley Drummoyne East Hills Coogee Kogarah Auburn Davidson Riverstone Miranda Cessnock (2) Murray-Darling Wentworthville Willoughby Cabramatta (2) Heathcote Liverpool North Shore Upper Hunter Georges River Ku-ring-gai Wollongong Hawkesbury Clarence (3) Rockdale Dubbo (2) Mulgoa Campbelltown Smithfield Blue Mountains Epping Baulkham Hills Lakemba The Hills Macquarie Fields Orange Ryde Hornsby Parramatta Strathfield Bankstown Fairfield Penrith Canterbury Monaro Bathurst Tamworth (1) (2)

42 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : SWING BY ELECTORATES RANKED IN PRE-ELECTION MARGIN Primary 2-Party Primary 2-Party Electorate (Margin) Swing Swing Electorate Swing Swing Labor Seats Marrickville (24.8) Port Jackson (23.6) Mount Druitt (22.0) Cabramatta (21.9) Liverpool (20.6) Wollongong (20.4) Heffron (19.8) Bankstown (18.4) Illawarra (17.7) Keira (17.6) Auburn (17.2) Newcastle (16.9) Wallsend (16.4) Fairfield (16.4) Cessnock (16.4) Lake Macquarie (15.2) Lakemba (14.7) Kiama (14.6) Granville (14.2) Blacktown (14.0) Charlestown (13.9) Maroubra (13.6) Smithfield (13.4) Macquarie Fields (13.0) Londonderry (11.6) East Hills (11.6) Canterbury (11.6) Campbelltown (10.9) Swansea (10.7) Riverstone (9.9) Wyong (9.7) Port Stephens (9.7) Mulgoa (8.7) Rockdale (7.8) Wentworthville (7.7) Peats (7.7) Coogee (5.4) Bligh (IND HELD) Penrith (4.3) The Entrance (4.0) Parramatta (3.5) Drummoyne (2.7) Heathcote (2.4) Blue Mountains (2.2) Kogarah (0.7) Bathurst (0.6) Liberal/National Seats Maitland (0.9) Menai (1.9) Georges River (2.0) Tweed (NAT 2.2) Strathfield (2.7) Murray-Darling (NAT 3.5) Ryde (4.2) South Coast (4.6) Miranda (5.3) Gosford (5.5) Camden (5.7) Burrinjuck (7.2) Clarence (NAT 8.4) Coffs Harbour (NAT 8.9) Cronulla (10.2) Southern Highlands (11.6) Port Macquarie (NAT 12.0) Lane Cove (12.3) Wagga Wagga (12.8) Manly (IND HELD)) Bega (13.6) Hornsby (13.7) Murrumbidgee (NAT 13.9) Lismore (NAT 14.3) Oxley (NAT 14.6) Nthn Tablelands (NAT 14.6) Wakehurst (14.8) Monaro (NAT 16.3) Ballina (NAT 16.5) Epping (16.7) Orange (NAT 17.1) Myall Lakes (NAT 17.1) Lachlan (NAT 17.3) Albury (17.3) Vaucluse (17.5) Baulkham Hills (17.9) Barwon (NAT 18.4) Upper Hunter (NAT 18.5) Willoughby (18.8) Dubbo (NAT 19.4) North Shore (20.2) Pittwater (20.3) Hawkesbury (21.8) The Hills (24.6) Davidson (28.2) Ku-ring-gai (28.3) Tamworth (NAT 32.2) Footnotes : indicates a seat that changed party status at the 1999 election. '+' indicates a swing to Labor, '-' a swing against Labor. 38

43 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY : TWO-PARTY SUMMARY BY ELECTORATE PARTY STATUS Electoral 2PP Votes 2PP Percentage Category (No. of seats) ALP Lib/Nat ALP Lib/Nat Swing Marginal Labor (9) to Labor Safe Labor (13) to Labor Very Safe Labor (24) to Labor Total Labor (46) to Labor Marginal Liberal (9) to Labor Safe Liberal (3) to Labor Very Safe Liberal (16) to Labor Total Liberal (28) to Labor Marginal National (2) to Labor Safe National (2) to Lib/Nat Very Safe National (12) to Labor Total National (16) to Labor NOTES Seats with a margin less than 6% are classified as Marginal. Seats with a margin between 6% and 12% are classified as Safe. Seats with margins greater than 12% are classified as Very Safe. All seats classified by their margins based on 1995 election election results, adjusted for the redistribution, though the results in the table are for the 1999 election. By-election have been ignored. The three electorates held by Independents, Bligh, Manly and Tamworth, have not been included in the analysis. 39

44 REGIONAL SUMMARIES The following tables summarise the election result for different regions of the state. All electorates have been classified into three broad regions, Sydney, Hunter/Illawarra and Country. These regions are further subdivided as follows. Country Seats (25) North Coast (8) Ballina, Clarence, Coffs Harbour, Lismore, Myall Lakes, Oxley, Port Macquarie, Tweed Southern Country (7) Albury, Bega, Burrinjuck, Monaro, South Coast, Southern Highlands, Wagga Wagga Western Country (10) Barwon, Bathurst, Dubbo, Lachlan, Murray-Darling, Murrumbidgee, Northern Tablelands, Orange, Tamworth, Upper Hunter Hunter/Illawarra (12) Hunter Valley (8) Illawarra (4) Cessnock, Charlestown, Lake Macquarie, Maitland, Newcastle, Port Stephens, Swansea, Wallsend Illawarra, Keira, Kiama, Wollongong Sydney (56) Central Coast (4) Inner-City (9) North Shore (14) Gosford, Peats, The Entrance, Wyong Bligh, Coogee, Drummoyne, Heffron, Maroubra, Marrickville, Port Jackson, Strathfield, Vaucluse Baulkham Hills, Davidson, Epping, Hawkesbury, Hornsby, Ku-ring-gai, Lane Cove, Manly, North Shore, Pittwater, Ryde, The Hills, Wakehurst, Willoughby Southern Suburbs (9) Canterbury, Cronulla, Georges River, Heathcote, Kogarah, Lakemba, Menai, Miranda, Rockdale Western Suburbs (20) Auburn, Bankstown, Blacktown, Blue Mountains, Cabramatta, Camden, Campbelltown, East Hills, Fairfield, Granville, Liverpool, Londonderry, Macquarie Fields, Mount Druitt, Mulgoa, Parramatta, Penrith, Riverstone, Smithfield, Wentworthville 40

45 COUNTRY SEATS Enrolled Party Seats Won Votes % Swing Labor Liberal National One Nation Democrats Greens Others Labor 2PP Lib/Nat 2PP Formal Informal Total Votes (NOTE: See comment on two-party preferred result in Tamworth on Page 2) WESTERN COUNTRY Enrolled Party Seats Won Votes % Swing Labor Liberal National One Nation Democrats Greens Others Labor 2PP Lib/Nat 2PP Formal Informal Total Votes (NOTE: See comment on two-party preferred result in Tamworth on Page 2) NORTH COAST Enrolled Party Seats Won Votes % Swing Labor Liberal National One Nation Democrats Greens Others Labor 2PP Lib/Nat 2PP Formal Informal Total Votes HUNTER/ILLAWARRA Enrolled Party Seats Won Votes % Swing Labor Liberal National One Nation Democrats Greens Others Labor 2PP Lib/Nat 2PP Formal Informal Total Votes SOUTHERN COUNTRY Enrolled Party Seats Won Votes % Swing Labor Liberal National One Nation Democrats Greens Others Labor 2PP Lib/Nat 2PP Formal Informal Total Votes HUNTER VALLEY Enrolled Party Seats Won Votes % Swing Labor Liberal National One Nation Democrats Greens Others Labor 2PP Lib/Nat 2PP Formal Informal Total Votes

46 ILLAWARRA Enrolled Party Seats Won Votes % Swing Labor Liberal One Nation Democrats Greens Others Labor 2PP Lib/Nat 2PP Formal Informal Total Votes INNER-CITY Enrolled Party Seats Won Votes % Swing Labor Liberal One Nation Democrats Greens Others Labor 2PP Lib/Nat 2PP Formal Informal Total Votes SYDNEY Enrolled Party Seats Won Votes % Swing Labor Liberal National One Nation Democrats Greens Others Labor 2PP Lib/Nat 2PP Formal Informal Total Votes CENTRAL COAST Enrolled Party Seats Won Votes % Swing Labor Liberal National One Nation Democrats Greens Others Labor 2PP Lib/Nat 2PP Formal Informal Total Votes NORTH SHORE Enrolled Party Seats Won Votes % Swing Labor Liberal One Nation Democrats Greens Others Labor 2PP Lib/Nat 2PP Formal Informal Total Votes SOUTHERN SUBURBS Enrolled Party Seats Won Votes % Swing Labor Liberal One Nation Democrats Greens Others Labor 2PP Lib/Nat 2PP Formal Informal Total Votes

47 WESTERN SUBURBS Enrolled Party Seats Won Votes % Swing Labor Liberal One Nation Democrats Greens Others Labor 2PP Lib/Nat 2PP Formal Informal Total Votes

48 BY-ELECTIONS Clarence (25 May 1996: Resignation of Ian Causley) Woods ALP Wrightson DEM Sharman GRN Knight NAT OTH Woods ALP Knight NAT Exhausted 524 Formal Informal Total Orange (25 May 1996: Resignation of Gary West) Turner NAT Cianfrano IND Sullivan ALP OTH Turner NAT Sullivan ALP Exhausted 429 Formal Informal Total Pittwater (25 May 1996: Resignation of Jim Longley) Dimond DEM Smith IND Brogden LIB Bristow CTA Cairns GRN Sargent ALP Woodger AAFI OTH Dimond DEM Brogden LIB Sargent ALP Exhausted 3537 Formal Informal Total Southern Highlands (25 May 1996: Resignation of John Fahey) Butler DEM Chappell CTA Duncan IND Seaton LIB Yeo ALP Hodgkinson NAT GRN Seaton LIB Yeo ALP Hodgkinson NAT Exhausted 3035 Formal Informal Total

49 Strathfield (25 May 1996: Resignation of Paul Zammit) Peterson CTA Meagher GRN Timbrell ALP Hill IND MacCarthy LIB Newman DEM OTH Timbrell ALP MacCarthy LIB Exhausted 1146 Formal Informal Total Port Macquarie (30 Nov 1996: Resignation of Wendy Machin) Barrett IND Smith SHO Kooy IND Rogers IND Farrugia IND Russell GRN Hutchinson AAFI Oakshott NAT ALP OTH Barrett IND Oakshott NAT ALP Exhausted 3195 Formal Informal Total Sutherland (20 Dec 1997: Resignation of Chris Downy) Hunt IND Druery ORP Harris IND Lentern GRN Copeland CDP Woodger AAFI Hawkins ALP Moore IND Stone LIB OTH Hawkins ALP Stone LIB Exhausted 3003 Formal Informal Total NOTE The sitting members for Burrinjuck, Monaro and Swansea resigned in late 1998, but by-elections were not held before the state election. 45

50 LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL STATE-WIDE TOTALS ROLL Seats Change Party (Group) Votes % Vote Swing Quotas Won from 91 Labor Party (AE) Liberal/National Party (AW) Pauline Hanson's One Nation (AM) Australian Democrats (Y) Christian Democratic Party (BR) The Greens (Q) John Tingle - The Shooters Party (BZ) Progressive Labor Party (N) Marijuana Smokers Rights Party (B) Reform the Legal System (A) Unity (AX) Country Summit Alliance (BS) Registered Clubs Party (F) Gun Owners & Sporting Hunters (J) Country Party (S) What's Doing? Party (BW) A Better Future for Our Children (M) Franca Arena Child Safety Alliance (AT) Three Day Weekend Party (AK) Australian Family Alliance (AD) Young Australians Caring (D) Austs Against Further Immigration (BN) Gay and Lesbian Party (C) Against Promotion of Homosexuality (AF) Australian Small Business Party (BE) Animal Liberation Party (BM) Democratic Socialists (BG) Speranza: Hope for Better Health (AB) The Four Wheel Drive Party (AV) Outdoor Recreation Party (BK) Riders' and Motorists' Party Inc (P) Kevin Ryan - Drug Reform (AC) The Seniors Party (AL) Jobs for Everyone - Futures for all (R) Marine Environment Conservation (K) Wilderness Party (BH) Stop Banks Exploiting Australians (H) Aust. Ind. Coalition for Political Integ. (BL) Fair Tax Party (BQ) Help Disabled People (AA) Mick Gallagher for Australia (X) NSW Ratepayers Party (E) Womens Party/Save the Forests (BF) Australia First (AN) Make Billionaires Pay More Tax! (AU) Euthanasia Referendum Party (BO) Care For Us Party (L) G.Bigot People Before Politics (AO) Hospitals, Education, Law, Privacy (AS) Earthsave (AY) STATE-WIDE TOTALS (Continued) 46

51 Seats Change Party (Group) Votes % Vote Swing Quotas Won from 91 People Against Paedophiles (CB) Independent Community Network (BP) Abolish State Governments! (U) A Fair Go for Families (BV) Communist Party of Australia (V) Voice of the People (BJ) Citizens Electoral Councils (I) Natural Law Party (O) Give Criminals Longer Sentences (BA) Responsible Drug Reform (AH) Republic 2001/People First (AI) Outside Syd. Newc. Wollongong (W) Responsible Gambling Party (G) No Nuclear Waste Dumps Party (AP) Motor Vehicle Consumer Protection (BI) No Privatisation People's Party (BB) No Badgerys Creek Airport (AZ) Esposito (Ind) (AG) Anti-Corruption Party (Z) Non-Custodial Parents Party (BY) Elect the President (T) Australians for a Better Community (BX) Reclaim Australia (AJ) Our Common Future Party (BD) Kanan (Ind) (BC) Hotel Patrons Party (CA) Reform Parliamentary Super (AR) Community First Party (AQ) Timbarra Clean Water Party (BT) Tennants Have Rights (BU) Ungrouped candidates Other candidates Formal Informal Total Votes Quota

52 DETAILS OF LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL ELECTION GRP PARTY/CANDIDATE Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket A Reform the Legal System Ticket Votes Breen, Peter (Elected 20) Drakeford, Vere 143 B Marijuana Smokers Rights Party Ticket Votes Matthew, Jeremy Smith, Jamie C Gay and Lesbian Party Ticket Votes Blessing, Martin Shaw, Ros D Young Australians Caring for our Future Ticket Votes Delaney, Kristy Graham, Daryn 89 E NSW Ratepayers Party Ticket Votes Tolhurst, Ewan Shaw, Brian 47 F Registered Clubs Party Ticket Votes Costello, David Cowan, Stephen 71 Lockwood, Joanna Langford, Alan 51 Peter, Allan 45 Parker, Steve 36 G Responsible Gambling Party Ticket Votes Le Rade, Marea Hickson, Jim 38 H Stop Banks Exploiting Australians Group Ticket Votes Burns, Gary Davis, Michael 55 I Citizens Electoral Councils Ticket Votes Butler, Robert 151 Collins, Glenys 25 J Gun Owners & Sporting Hunters Rights Ticket Votes Downey, Phillip Koulouris, Con 55 K Marine Environment Conservation Party Ticket Votes Thomas, Dave Jones, Sorel 34 L Care For Us Party Ticket Votes Gliksman, Michael 73 Nicholls, Shane 15 48

53 DETAILS OF LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL RESULT (Continued) GRP PARTY/CANDIDATE Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket M A Better Future for Children Ticket Votes Bridgman, Karen Mackenzie, Erica 57 N Progressive Labour Party Ticket Votes Woldring, Klaas Clarke, Jacklyn 122 O Natural Law Party Ticket Votes Carr, Tim Price, Sandy 26 P Riders' and Motorists' Party Inc Ticket Votes Foster, Phillip Taffa, Paul 46 Q The Greens Ticket Votes Rhiannon, Lee (Elected 18) Sperling, Karla Russell, Susie Burgess, Cathy Oquist, Ben 97 Dobbie, Leeza 61 Lam, Keelah 51 Fitzgerald, Paul 134 Isherwood, Kathleen R Jobs for Everyone - Futures for All Ticket Votes Thorp, Peter Keaton, Jane 26 S Country Party Ticket Votes Hedges, Stephen Hedges, Kylie 36 T Elect the President Ticket Votes Carpenter, Sidonie 110 Carpenter, Ian 10 U Abolish State Governments! Ticket Votes Consandine, Peter Trompf, Sharon 29 August, John 26 V Communist Party of Australia Ticket Votes Bailey, John Bassil, Dorothy 39 W Outside Newcastle Sydney Wollong Party Ticket Votes McPherson, Andrew 136 McPherson, Sally 16 49

54 DETAILS OF LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL RESULT (Continued) GRP PARTY/CANDIDATE Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket X Mick Gallagher for Australia Ticket Votes Gallagher, Patrick Mawson, John 67 Y Australian Democrats Ticket Votes Chesterfield-Evans, Arthur (Elected 17) Gavagnin Newman, Amelia Baird, Matthew Disney, Simon 171 Endean, Betty Clifford, Pam 171 Pollnitz, Aysha 142 Harcourt-Norton, Ruth 97 Cousins, Sonia Z Anti-Corruption (Insurers,Lawyers,Politicians) Ticket Votes Allen, Tony 102 Jacups, Graham 4 AA Help Disabled People Ticket Votes Bradley, David Bilton, Donald 16 AB Speranza, Hope for Better Health NSW Ticket Votes Humphrey, Tony Hutchence, Kell 38 Woods, Tony 18 AC Kevin Ryan - Drug Reform Ticket Votes Ryan, Kevin Gleeson, Newton 13 AD Australian Family Alliance Ticket Votes Tudehope, Damien Fowler, Mary-Louise 60 Florio, Marc 56 Keppie, Colleen 15 Patterson, Denis 22 AE Labor Party Ticket Votes Shaw, Jeffrey (Elected 1) Della Bosca, John (Elected 4) Obeid, Edward (Elected 6) 157 Burnswoods, Jan (Elected 8) Macdonald, Ian (Elected 10) Hatzistergos, John (Elected 12) Burgmann, Meredith (Elected 14) Tsang, Henry (Elected 15) Fazio, Amanda 118 Robertson, Christine Plowman, Glenys 59 Catanzariti, Tony

55 DETAILS OF LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL RESULT (Continued) GRP PARTY/CANDIDATE Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket Steer, Naomi 108 Brassil, Katherine 110 Hatcher, Julie AF Aust's Against Promotion of Homosexuality Ticket Votes Andrews, Malcolm Toso, Dominic 8 AG Independent Ticket Votes Esposito, June 132 Hutton, Margaret-Anne 1 AH Responsible Drug Reform for Australia Ticket Votes Heath, Simon 91 Cole, Michael 5 AI Republic 2001/People First Ticket Votes Druery, Glen Simmonds, Claire 19 Scrogie, Christopher 7 Hales, Patricia 3 Mahoney, Bridget 6 McClure, Glen 8 Minale, Robert 0 Bucciarelli, Paride 4 Papandrea, Marea 3 Simonds, Clive 2 Salmon, Kylie 4 Lawson, Linda 3 Di Pietro, Nick 5 Murphy, Susan 3 Gabrielle, Antonio 6 AJ Reclaim Australia Ticket Votes Smith, Rod 34 Clarke, Noel 1 AK Three Day Weekend Party Ticket Votes Henry, Irene Morgan, Rubina 33 AL The Seniors Party Ticket Votes Vessey, Mervyn Spencer, Lesley 19 AM Pauline Hanson's One Nation Ticket Votes Oldfield, David (Elected 3) Burston, Brian Ross, Jason 83 Deeney, Carol 170 Booth, Mark

56 DETAILS OF LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL RESULT (Continued) GRP PARTY/CANDIDATE Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket AN Australia First Ticket Votes Ritherdon, Jeffery 100 Willson, Greg 15 AO (Godfrey Bigot) People Before Party Politics Ticket Votes Bigot, Godfrey Jones, Allan 8 AP No Nuclear Waste Dumps Party Ticket Votes Crisp, Gordon 148 Corcoran, Terry 10 AQ Community First Party Ticket Votes Smith, Michael 21 Chidzey, Maria-Elena 9 AR Reform Parliamentary Superannuation Party Ticket Votes Moran, Peter 73 Moran, Sue 7 AS Hospitals, Education, Law, Privacy Ticket Votes McBride, William 143 Rooney, Mary-Rose 13 AT Franca Arena Child Safety Alliance Ticket Votes Arena, Franca Lancaster, Judith 18 Alexander-Fisher, Beverley 3 AU Make Billionaires Pay More Tax! Ticket Votes Aitken Rasink, Kate Barlow, Lucinda 29 AV Four Wheel Drive Party Ticket Votes Thompson, Bruce Sanzari, Frank 7 AW Liberal/National Party Ticket Votes Forsythe, Patricia (Elected 2) Gardiner, Jenny (Elected 5) Ryan, John (Elected 7) Lynn, Charlie (Elected 9) Moppet, Doug (Elected 11) Harwin, Don (Elected 13) 96 Hansen, Greg Blume, Rod Cusack, Catherine Pearce, Greg 114 Cleary, Cathy 131 Dennison, Tony Arkwright, Juliet 93 Worthington, John

57 DETAILS OF LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL RESULT (Continued) GRP PARTY/CANDIDATE Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket Smith, Toby AX Unity Ticket Votes Wong, Peter (Elected 19) McGuid, Sam 23 Kemp, Sarah 24 Jacobs, Alan 38 Valenza, Ramona 23 AY Earthsave Ticket Votes Raynor, Brandon Spicer, Simon 37 AZ No Badgerys Creek Airport Party Ticket Votes Outzen, Brad 154 Outzen, Julie 9 BA Give Criminals Longer Sentences Ticket Votes Beskin, Geoff 132 Palasty, George 5 BB No Privatisation People's Party Ticket Votes Bargashoun, Samir Sangari, Nuha 1 BC Independents Ticket Votes Kanan, Joseph 36 Shen, Victor 10 BD Our Common Future Party Ticket Votes Caldiclott, Helen Stewart, Jennie 3 Rankin, Genevieve 18 BE The Australian Small Business Party Ticket Votes Leigh-Jones, Matthew Blasonato, Catherine 15 BF Womens Party/Save the Forests Ticket Votes Lambert, Rebecca Hulbert, David 18 Scott, Helen 19 Hulbert, Martina 27 BG Democratic Socialists Ticket Votes Nichols, Dick Jarvis, Helen 66 BH The Wilderness Party Ticket Votes Bawden, Henry Smith, Colin 14 53

58 DETAILS OF LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL RESULT (Continued) GRP PARTY/CANDIDATE Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket BI Motor Vehicle Consumer Protection Party Ticket Votes Galati, Anthony 42 Stace, Diane 3 BJ Voice of the People Party Ticket Votes Wu, Spencer 66 Farcell, Ginette 3 Allen, John 1 Hu, Chang 1 BK Outdoor Recreation Party Ticket Votes Jones, Malcolm (Elected 16) Simcox, Joanne 22 Mathews, Ron 14 BL Aust. Ind. Coalition for Political Integrity Ticket Votes Burton, Rodney 74 Cordiner, Graeme 11 BM The Animal Liberation Party Ticket Votes Yorke-Goldney, Donald Hopson, David 21 BN Australians Against Further Immigration Ticket Votes Woodger, Edwin Kitson, David 32 BO Euthanasia Referendum Party Ticket Votes Heinrichs, Jane Piol, Gregory 17 BP Independent Community Network Ticket Votes Sheehan, Maire Arnold, Pam 34 Brown, Helen 24 Reymond, Michael 24 BQ Fair Tax Party Ticket Votes Reid, Jim Ashmore, Mara 13 Coroneo, Andrew 6 Spitzer, Sam 8 BR Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) Ticket Votes Nile, Fred (Elected 21) Walker, Peter 93 McLennan, Graham 42 Webster, Alisdair 93 Hume, Kevin 67 54

59 DETAILS OF LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL RESULT (Continued) GRP PARTY/CANDIDATE Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket BS Country Summit Alliance Ticket Votes Wearne, John Brennan, Ros Hegedus, Andrew 44 Braund, Claire 59 Hayes, Janet 49 Marsh, John 27 Harris, Robert 31 Botfield, Peter 27 Kelly, David 28 BT Timbarra Clean Water Party Ticket Votes Corowa, Robert 108 Stevens, Natalie 24 BU Tenants Have Rights Ticket Votes Kilgour, Kylie 68 See, Cecil 9 BV A Fair Go For Families Ticket Votes Wright, Steven 74 Uttley, Michael 5 BW What's Doing? Party Ticket Votes Fenech, Mario Prosser, Jacquie 25 BX Australians for a Better Community Ticket Votes Todd, Adam 30 Brook, Suzanne 6 BY Non-Custodial Parents Party Ticket Votes Thompson, Andrew Flynn, Angela 6 BZ John Tingle - The Shooters Party Ticket Votes Pirie, Jim Franich, Rodney 34 O'Connell, Suzanne 42 Bourke, Robyn 33 Berry, Grahame 22 Nikesitch, Peter 11 Ostini, Greg 18 Whelan, Colin 15 White, Craig 11 Baker, Arthur 18 Stewart, Don 35 CA Hotel Patrons Party Ticket Votes McHolme, Brett Robinson, Dennis 7 55

60 DETAILS OF LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL RESULT (Continued) GRP PARTY/CANDIDATE Votes % Vote Quotas % Ticket CB People Against Paedophiles Ticket Votes Piechocki, John 142 Ireland, Graham 21 Ung Ungrouped Ivor F Lang, Chris Watson, Eddy 31 Wright, Michael 44 Miller, Bob Dixen, Mark 102 Formal Votes Informal Votes Total Votes Quota

61 SUMMARY OF 1997/98 REDISTRIBUTION The following notes summarize the status of the 93 electorates drawn by the 1997/98 Electoral Districts Commission. All estimates are based on re-allocating booth results from the 1995 election to the new electorates. By-elections have been ignored in the analysis. These are amended figures, the original version of the figures having been published in 1997/98 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries by Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service Background Paper, No 4/98 State of Parties Labor Liberal National Others Total Result of 1995 Election Estimate on new Boundaries Including Clarence by-election Abolished Electorates (10) Name Margin Notes Ashfield ALP 15.2 MP Paul Whelan contested Strathfield Broken Hill ALP 4.7 MP Bill Beckroge retired Ermington LIB 7.8 MP Michael Photios contested new seat of Ryde Gladesville ALP 0.4 MP John Watkins contested new seat of Ryde Gordon LIB 30.3 MP Jeremy Kinross retired Hurstville ALP 9.6 MP Maurice Iemma contested Lakemba Murray NAT 27.6 MP Jim Small retired Northcott LIB 18.6 MP Barry O'Farrell contested Ku-ring-gai St Marys ALP 18.9 MP Jim Anderson contested Londonderry Waratah ALP 24.1 MP John Price contested Maitland New Electorates (4) Name Margin Notes Hornsby LIB 13.7 Contested by Ku-ring-gai MP Stephen O'Doherty Murray-Darling NAT 3.5 Vacant Ryde LIB 4.2 Contested by Ermington MP Michael Photios and Gladesville MP John Watkins Wentworthville ALP 7.7 Contested by Blacktown MP Pam Allen Re-Named Electorates New Name Old Name New Margin Old Margin Notes Epping Eastwood LIB 16.7 LIB 14.2 Heathcote Bulli ALP 2.4 ALP 11.3 Also contested by Sutherland MP Lorna Stone Macquarie Fields Moorebank ALP 13.0 ALP 12.8 Menai Sutherland LIB 1.9 LIB 6.4 MP Lorna Stone contested Heathcote Mulgoa Badgerys Creek ALP 8.7 ALP 0.1 Tweed Murwillumbah NAT 2.2 Nat

62 Continuing Electorates Name New Margin Old Margin Notes Albury Lib 17.3 Lib 16.3 Auburn ALP 17.2 ALP 17.4 Ballina Nat 16.5 Nat 17.4 Bankstown ALP 18.4 ALP 16.2 MP Doug Shedden retired. Contested by Lakemba MP Tony Stewart. Barwon Nat 18.4 Nat 20.1 Bathurst ALP 0.6 ALP 1.0 MP Mick Clough retired Baulkham Hills Lib 17.9 Lib 17.5 Bega Lib 13.6 Lib 13.7 Blacktown ALP 14.0 ALP 10.6 MP Pam Allen contested Wentworthville, contested by Londonderry MP Paul Gibson Bligh Ind 13.7 Ind 5.5 Estimate only. Old margin against Liberal Party, new estimated margin against the Labor Party Blue Mountains ALP 2.2 ALP 2.5 Burrinjuck Lib 7.2 Lib 9.9 MP Alby Schultz contested 1996 Federal Election. No by-election held. Cabramatta ALP 21.9 ALP 21.2 Camden Lib 5.7 Lib 2.6 Campbelltown ALP 10.9 ALP 11.8 Canterbury ALP 11.7 ALP 11.7 Cessnock ALP 16.4 ALP 13.1 MP Stan Neilly retired Charlestown ALP 13.9 ALP 14.2 Clarence Nat 8.4 Nat 8.3 Held by Labor MP Harry Woods following a 1996 by-election Coffs Harbour Nat 8.9 Nat 8.7 Coogee ALP 5.4 ALP 6.1 Cronulla Lib 10.2 Lib 9.8 Davidson Lib 28.2 Lib 22.8 Drummoyne ALP 2.7 ALP 2.2 Dubbo Nat 19.4 Nat 18.0 MP Gerry Peacocke retired East Hills ALP 11.6 ALP 10.7 MP Pat Rogan retired Fairfield ALP 16.4 ALP 17.1 Georges River Lib 2.0 Lib 8.0 Gosford Lib 5.5 Lib 5.5 Granville ALP 14.2 ALP 14.5 Hawkesbury Lib 21.8 Lib 18.5 Heffron ALP 19.8 ALP 18.8 Illawarra ALP 17.7 ALP 20.5 MP Terry Rumble retired Keira ALP 17.6 ALP 13.9 MP Col Markham contested Wollongong Kiama ALP 14.6 ALP 12.2 MP Bob Harrison retired Kogarah ALP 0.7 ALP 1.5 MP Brian Langton retired Ku-ring-gai LIB 28.3 LIB 19.0 Lachlan Nat 17.3 Nat 22.4 Lake Macquarie ALP 15.2 ALP 14.8 Lakemba ALP 14.7 ALP 18.7 MP Tony Stewart contested Bankstown. Contested by Hurstville MP Morris Iemma Lane Cove Lib 12.3 Lib 20.2 Lismore Nat 14.3 Nat 13.7 MP Bill Rixon retired Liverpool ALP 20.6 ALP

63 Name New Margin Old Margin Notes Londonderry ALP 11.6 ALP 15.3 Contested by St Marys MP Jim Anderson. MP Paul Gibson contested Blacktown Maitland Lib 0.9 Lib 4.1 Also contested by Waratah MP John Price Manly IND held IND 0.4 MP Peter Macdonald retiring. Estimated twocandidate Liberal vote 50.7% Maroubra ALP 13.6 ALP 13.8 Marrickville ALP 24.8 ALP 26.8 Miranda Lib 5.3 Lib 6.7 Monaro Nat 16.3 Nat 16.2 MP Peter Cochran retired before the election. No by-election held Mount Druitt ALP 22.0 ALP 16.7 Murrumbidgee Nat 13.9 Nat 10.2 MP Adrian Cruikshank retired Myall Lakes Nat 17.1 Nat 18.4 Newcastle ALP 16.9 ALP 16.1 North Shore Lib 20.2 Lib 19.2 Nthn Tablelands Nat 14.6 Nat 13.7 Orange Nat 17.1 Nat 16.4 Oxley Nat 14.6 Nat 14.8 MP Bruce Jeffrey retired Parramatta ALP 3.5 ALP 9.2 Peats ALP 7.7 ALP 8.4 Penrith ALP 4.3 ALP 2.8 Pittwater Lib 20.3 Lib 20.8 Port Jackson ALP 23.6 ALP 23.7 Port Macquarie Nat 12.0 Nat 11.7 Port Stephens ALP 9.7 ALP 9.0 MP Bob Martin retired Riverstone ALP 9.9 ALP 10.6 Rockdale ALP 7.8 ALP 11.2 Smithfield ALP 13.4 ALP 13.7 South Coast Lib 4.6 Lib 4.6 Sthn Highlands Lib 11.6 Lib 10.4 Strathfield Lib 2.7 Lib 6.0 Also contested by Ashfield MP Paul Whelan Swansea ALP 10.7 ALP 10.5 MP Jill Hall contested 1996 Federal election. No by-election held. Tamworth Ind 32.2 Ind 34.8 Also used as 2-Party estimate The Entrance ALP 4.0 ALP 4.1 The Hills Lib 24.6 Lib 25.3 Upper Hunter Nat 18.5 Nat 19.0 Vaucluse Lib 17.5 Lib 15.4 Wagga Wagga Lib 12.8 Lib 10.7 MP Joe Schipp retired Wakehurst Lib 14.8 Lib 12.9 Wallsend ALP 16.4 ALP 12.5 Willoughby Lib 18.8 Lib 20.0 Wollongong ALP 20.4 ALP 20.1 MP Gerry Sullivan lost pre-selection. Contested by Kiera MP Col Markham. Wyong ALP 9.7 ALP 8.7 Two-Candidate Preferred Estimates Name New Margin Old Margin Notes Bligh ALP 5.4 LIB 3.4 Manly LIB 13.4 LIB

64 DISTRIBUTION OF LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY PREFERENCES BY PARTY The tables on the following pages provide summaries of the distribution of preferences for One Nation, Australian Democrat and Green candidates. The distribution of preferences from Labor, Liberal and National Party candidates are also shown for the small number of electorates where this was required. Each table groups together electorates depending on which party candidates are excluded, and to which final combination of parties the preferences were distributed. The analysis concentrates on the last distribution of preferences where votes are distributed to the final two candidates. However, several tables look at the second last distribution, at the point where three candidates remained in the count. In all tables, electorates are grouped by the number of candidates contesting the electorate, and at what point the candidate's preferences were distributed. As well as percentage preferences flows to other parties, the percentage primary vote received by the excluded candidate is shown. Where more than three candidates contested an electorate, the total percentage vote for previously excluded minor party candidates is shown, along with the party affiliation of the main candidates excluded. Average distributions of preferences are shown for each party, and for each number of candidates contesting. Averages are calculated by adding together the percentages, and dividing by the number of electorates. This gives the same weight to each electorate, irrespective of the size of the primary vote received by the excluded party. An alternative method would have been to add together the actual votes distributed in the group of electorates, and then calculate the percentages. However, this would give the greatest weight to the electorates where the minor party received its highest votes, though in general, the difference in the two calculation methods would be minor. Note that in all electorates with more than three candidates, the preferences flows of the excluded party will be affected by the distribution of preferences from previously excluded candidates. The preference flows are calculated on all votes held by a candidate at the point where they were excluded, meaning the percentages will be based on both the excluded candidate's primary votes, as well as any votes received as preferences from other candidates. So for instance, in the tables of Australian Democrat preferences, the flow of preferences to Labor may include some primary votes for Green candidates, that were transferred to the Democrat candidate at a previous count. 60

65 Distribution of One Nation Preferences (Labor / Liberal finish) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate Labor Liberal Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 6 Candidates, One Nation distributed fourth Granville (5 cands) AFI,GRN Bega IND,GRN,DEM Blacktown DEM,AFI,CDP Charlestown IND,CDP,GRN Lake Macquarie AFI,CDP,GRN Miranda GRN,DEM,AFI Riverstone GRN,AFI,DEM South Coast AFI,GRN,CDP Swansea GRN,DEM,CDP Wallsend CDP,CEC,GRN Average (9) Candidates, One Nation distributed fifth Camden GRN,NCP,AFI,IND Liverpool AFI,UNI,NCP,CEC Macquarie Fields AFI,IND,DEM,NCP Menai IND,DEM,AFI,GRN Smithfield GRN,CDP,AFI,DEM Wyong AFI,ES,CDP,DEM Average (6) Candidates, One Nation distributed sixth Cronulla IND,DEM,CDP,GRN,AFI Georges River AFI,IND,UNI,GRN,IND Kiama DEM,AFI,CDP,IND,GRN Maitland CEC,ORP,CDP,DEM,GRN Mount Druitt DEM,GRN,CDP,UNI,AFI Southern Highlands IND,NCP,DEM,AFI,GRN Wentworthville CDP,UNI,GRN,AFI,DEM Average (7) Candidates, One Nation distributed seventh Bankstown GRN,DEM,UNI,3 others Campbelltown UNI,DEM,GRN,3 others East Hills DEM,GRN, 4 others Gosford DEM,GRN, 4 others Hawkesbury DEM,GRN, 4 others Heathcote DEM,GRN,UNI,3 others Londonderry DEM,GRN, 4 others Peats DEM,GRN,UNI,3 others Average (8) Candidates, One Nation distributed eighth Illawarra DEM,GRN,CDP,4 oths Parramatta DEM,GRN,UNI,4 others Rockdale DEM,GRN, 5 others Average (3) Candidates, One Nation distributed ninth Kogarah GRN,CDP,UNI, 5 oths 12 Candidates, One Nation distributed tenth Mulgoa DEM, GRN, 7 others 13 Candidates, One Nation distributed eleventh Penrith DEM,GRN, 8 others Overall Average (37)

66 Distribution of One Nation Preferences (Labor / National finish) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate Labor National Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 5 Candidates, One Nation distributed third Barwon CEC,DEM Lachlan DEM,GRN Murrumbidgee DEM,CEC Myall Lakes GRN,AFI Average (4) Candidates, One Nation distributed fourth Murray-Darling CEC,NCP,DEM Port Macquarie AFI,CEC,GRN Upper Hunter CEC,CDP,GRN Average (3) Candidates, One Nation distributed fifth Orange IND,DEM,CDP,GRN 8 Candidates, One Nation distributed sixth Oxley DEM,GRN,IND(3) Port Stephens DEM,GRN,CDP, 2 oths Average (2) Candidates, One Nation distributed seventh Coffs Harbour DEM,GRN, 4 others Overall Average (11) Three-Way Distribution of One Nation Preferences (Labor / Liberal / National) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate Labor Liberal NationalExhaust % Vote Other Candidates 8 Candidates, One Nation distributed fifth Burrinjuck CEC,DEM,GRN,CDP 9 Candidates, One Nation distributed sixth The Entrance DEM,GRN,CDP, 2 oths 11 Candidates, One Nation distributed eighth Clarence DEM,GRN, 5 others 12 Candidates, One Nation distributed ninth Bathurst DEM,GRN, 6 others Overall Average (4) Three-Way Distribution of One Nation Preferences (Labor / National / Independents) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate ALP NAT IND Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 4 Candidates, One Nation distributed first Tamworth Candidates, One Nation distributed fourth Dubbo GRN,DEM Northern Tablelands DEM,GRN Average (2) Overall Average (3)

67 Distribution of Australian Democrat Preferences (Labor / Liberal or National finish) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate Labor Lib/Nat Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 6 Candidates, Australian Democrats distributed fourth Lane Cove AFI,GRN,ONP North Shore ONP,GRN,AFI Average (2) Candidates, Australian Democrats distributed sixth Baulkham Hills ONP,UNI,GRN,NCP,AFI Blue Mountains ES,AFI,ONP,CDP,GRN Davidson ONP,UNI,AFI,CDP,GRN Ku-Ring-Gai CDP,ONP,GRN, 2 oths The Hills ONP,GRN,AFI,CDP,UNI Willoughby ONP,ES,AFI,GRN,UNI Average (6) Candidates, Australian Democrats distributed seventh Pittwater GRN,ONP,CDP, 3 oths Overall Average (9) Three-Way Distribution of Australian Democrat Preferences (Labor / Liberal / One Nation) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate ALP LIB ONP Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 6 Candidates, Australian Democrats distributed third Bega IND,GRN Blacktown AFI,CDP Riverstone GRN,AFI Average (3) Candidates, Australian Democrats distributed fourth Macquarie Fields AFI,IND,NCP Wyong AFI,ES,CDP Average (2) Candidates, Australian Democrats distributed sixth Campbelltown UNI,GRN,AFI,NCP,IND Gosford GRN,IND,CDP,AFI,ES Peats UNI,AFI,CDP,GRN,ES Average (3) Candidates, Australian Democrats distributed seventh Parramatta GRN,UNI, 4 others Rockdale GRN, 5 others Average (2) Candidates, Australian Democrats distributed ninth Mulgoa GRN, 7 others Overall Average (11)

68 Three-Way Distribution of Australian Democrat Preferences (Labor / National / One Nation) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate ALP NAT ONP Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 5 Candidates, Australian Democrats distributed second Barwon CEC Lachlan GRN Murrumbidgee CEC Average (3) Candidates, Australian Democrats distributed third Murray-Darling CEC,NCP 9 Candidates, Australian Democrats distributed sixth Coffs Harbour AFI,NCP,IND,ES,GRN Overall Average (5) Distribution of Green Preferences (Labor / Liberal or National finish) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate Labor Lib/Nat Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 6 Candidates, Greens distributed fourth Coogee DEM,ONP,AFI Vaucluse DEM,ONP,ERP Wakehurst AFI,ONP,DEM Average (3) Candidates, Greens distributed fifth Heffron AFI,ONP,DEM,DSL Maroubra UNI,DEM,ONP,AFI Average (2) Candidates, Greens distributed sixth Ballina DEM,CDP, 3 others Epping DEM,UNI,AFI,ONP,CDP Wollongong UNI,DEM,AFI,DSL,CDP Average (3) Candidates, Greens distributed eighth Newcastle ONP,DEM,UNI, 4 oths 12 Candidates, Greens distributed tenth Port Jackson ONP,DEM, 7 others Overall Average (10)

69 Three-Way Distribution of Green Preferences (Labor / Liberal / One Nation) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate ALP LIB ONP Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 5 Candidates, Greens distributed second Granville AFI 6 Candidates, Greens distributed third Charlestown IND,CDP Lake Macquarie AFI,CDP Miranda DEM,AFI South Coast AFI,CDP Swansea DEM,CDP Wallsend CDP,CEC Average (6) Candidates, Greens distributed fourth Camden NCP,AFI,IND Menai IND,DEM,AFI Average (2) Candidates, Greens distributed fifth Cronulla IND,DEM,CDP,AFI Georges River AFI,IND,UNI,IND Kiama DEM,AFI,CDP,IND Maitland CEC,ORP,CDP,DEM Southern Highlands IND,NCP,DEM,AFI Average (5) Candidates, Greens distributed sixth Hawkesbury NCP,DEM,IND,AFI,IND Heathcote ORP,AFI,DEM,CDP,UNI Londonderry IND,NCP,CDP,AFI,DEM Average (3) Candidates, Greens distributed eighth Kogarah CDP,UNI, 5 others 13 Candidates, Greens distributed tenth Penrith DEM,CDP, 7 others Overall Average (19) Three-Way Distribution of Green Preferences (Labor / National / One Nation) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate ALP NAT ONP Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 5 Candidates, Greens distributed second Myall Lakes AFI 6 Candidates, Greens distributed third Port Macquarie AFI,CEC Upper Hunter CEC,CDP Average (2) Candidates, Greens distributed fifth Port Stephens CEC,IND,CDP,DEM Overall Average (4)

70 Distribution of Labor Party Preferences (Labor / Liberal finish) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate LIB IND Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 4 Candidates, Labor Party distributed second Albury ONP 9 Candidates, Labor Party distributed seventh Manly DEM,GRN,ONP, 4 oths Overall Average (2) Distribution of Labor Party Preferences (National / Independent finish) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate NAT IND Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 7 Candidates, Labor Party distributed fifth Dubbo ONP,GRN,DEM Northern Tablelands ONP,DEM,GRN Average (2) Overall Average (2) Distribution of Liberal Party Preferences (Labor / National finish) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate Labor National Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 8 Candidates, Liberal Party distributed sixth Burrinjuck ONP,DEM,GRN, 2 oths Monaro ONP,GRN,IND(3) Average (2) Candidates, Liberal Party distributed eighth Lismore DEM,GRN, 5 others 11 Candidates, Liberal Party distributed ninth Clarence DEM,GRN,ONP, 5 oths 12 Candidates, Liberal Party distributed tenth Bathurst DEM,ONP,GRN, 6 oths Overall Average (5) Distribution of Liberal Party Preferences (Labor / Independent finish) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate ALP IND Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 8 Candidates, Liberal Party distributed sixth Keira ONP,ES,CDP,AFI 9 Candidates, Liberal Party distributed seventh Bligh GRN,UNI,4 others Overall Average (2)

71 Distribution of Liberal Party Preferences (Labor / One Nation finish) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate ALP ONP Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 5 Candidates, Liberal Party distributed third Cessnock GRN,IND Overall Average Distribution of National Party Preferences (Labor / Liberal finish) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate Labor Liberal Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 7 Candidates, National Party distributed fifth Wagga Wagga ONP,IND,DEM,IND 9 Candidates, National Party distributed seventh The Entrance ONP,GRN,DEM,3 oths Overall Average (2) Distribution of National Party Preferences (Labor / Independent finish) % Preferences flowing to Primary % Vote of Electorate ALP IND Exhaust % Vote Other Candidates 4 Candidates, National Party distributed second Tamworth ONP Overall Average

72 THE IMPACT OF OPTIONAL PREFERENTIAL VOTING Since 1981, New South Wales elections have been conducted using Optional Preferential Voting (OPV). For a formal vote, voters must indicate a valid first preference for one candidate, but the indication of further preferences is not required. At the 1999 New South Wales election, there was a large increase in the vote for minor parties and independents, along with an increase in the percentage of these votes that exhausted preferences before reaching the final two candidates in each electorate. This is shown clearly in Table 1, which shows the total distribution of preferences in all two-party contests between Labor and the Liberal- National Party coalition, though excluding three-cornered contests. (This data is not available for the 1981 and 1984 elections.) Table 1: Overall Distribution of Minor Party preferences Avge Candidates No. of Non-Major % of Preferences Election per Electorate Electorates % Vote to ALP to Lib/Nat Exhausted NOTE: Excludes electorates that were three-cornered contests between Labor, Liberal and National Party candidates, or where only one of these parties were present at the final count, that is where independents finished first or second. As a result, the above % Non-Major vote is for selected electorates, NOT the whole state. While the rise in both minor party vote and exhausted preferences probably reflects voter dissatisfaction with the major parties, there were two specific factors that increased the number of exhausted preferences. The first was the 7.5% vote for One Nation, and that party's decision not to direct preferences to any of the three major parties. (See tables on pages 61-62). The second is the substantial increase in candidates. In 1999, there were twice as many candidates as in 1988, at an election with 16 fewer electorates. In 1988 there were two electorates with eight candidates, while in 1999, there were 54 electorates with eight or more candidates. But the percentage of exhausted preferences also increased in three-cornered contests between the Labor, Liberal and National Parties, as shown in Table 2. Two methods have been used to calculate the percentage preference flows. Method 1 calculates the flow as a percentage of all votes distributed at the point where the Liberal or National Party candidate was excluded. However, this may inflate the number of exhausted preferences in 1999 compared to earlier elections, as it includes votes received as preferences from minor parties. In 1988, four of the six three-cornered contests involved no minor party votes, while all contests involved minor parties in To try and exclude this effect, Method 2 calculates the flows as a percentage of the primary vote of the candidate excluded, effectively assuming all votes received as preferences from minor parties exhausted at the final distribution of preferences. Table 2 : Distribution of Coalition Preferences in 3-Cornered Contests 3-Cornered Method 1 : % preferences Method 2 : % Preferences Election Contests to ALP to Lib/Nat Exhausted to ALP to Lib/Nat Exhausted NOTE: This table has been calculated by adding votes transferred rather than averaging percentages. For that reason, figures for 1999 may differ from preference distribution tables on pages and 1984 figures for only three-cornered contests where preferences were distributed. The question arises from this discussion as to whether it is possible to quantify if a candidate or party was advantaged or disadvantaged by the operation of optional preferential voting compared to what would have occurred under compulsory preferential voting. 68

73 To win an election under compulsory preferential voting (CPV), a candidate must receive more than 50% of the formal vote after the distribution of preferences. However, under optional preferential voting (OPV), a candidate needs only 50% of the vote remaining in the count, that is, the formal vote less exhausted votes. Effectively, every vote whose preferences exhaust during the distribution of preferences is excluded from the total votes remaining in the count. By cutting the number of votes in the count, the candidate with the highest primary vote comes closer to 50% of the vote, without actually receiving any preferences. In most cases, by simple mathematics and with no assumptions about the flow of preferences, OPV tends to assist the candidate with the highest primary vote. Every exhausted vote cuts the number of votes available to the second candidate to catch the leading candidate, before the leading candidate reaches 50% of the vote. Table 3 on the following pages attempts to construct a measure of advantage for the operation of OPV compared to CPV. The first four columns labelled "2CP as a % of Formal vote" show the 2- candidate preferred vote for each finishing candidate, and the number of votes exhausted during the distribution of preferences, but expressed as a percentage of the formal vote. Winning candidates are indicated in bold, and any electorate won with less than 50% of the formal vote is indicated with "***". Parties that lost a seat after leading on the primary vote are indicated with a " ". In trying to construct a possible result under CPV, these columns define the upper and lower bounds on the CPV 2CP%. Under CPV, the Exhausted column would be zero. If the winning candidate under OPV received no preferences from these exhausted votes, then their CPV 2CP% would be the same as under OPV, setting the lower bound. If they received all the exhausted votes as preferences, then their CPV 2CP% would be the OPV 2CP% plus the Exhausted %. To explain by example, in Auburn, if under CPV all the exhausted ballot papers had shown preferences to the Liberal candidate, the Labor candidate's 2CP% would have remained at the 66.7% shown in the table. If the 10.2% of exhausted votes had all shown preferences for Labor, then the 2CP% would have been (66.7% %) = 76.9%. Assuming that under CPV voters would not have changed their primary votes (a likely assumption apart from a possible increase in informal voting), some assumption needs to be made about in what proportion the exhausted preferences would have been split between the final two candidates under CPV. The assumption adopted in Table 3 is to assume that all exhausted preferences would have distributed to the final two candidates in the same proportion as the votes that did indicate preferences. The next four columns labelled "% Preferences received" show the relevant total distribution of all minor party preferences in an electorate. The three columns of preferences to parties show the preferences received as a percentage of votes with preferences. The final column shows the exhausted preferences as a percentage of all primary votes for candidates other than the final two candidates. The final three columns in the table are used to define whether a party receives an advantage under OPV. The column labelled 2CP% is calculated in the usual way, by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote by the number of votes remaining in the count. The column labelled "Compulsory 2CP Prediction" is calculated as explained in the previous paragraph, by distributing all exhausted preferences in the same proportion as the preferences that were distributed. The final column "Advantage" subtracts the prediction from the 2CP%. A positive figure means the winning candidate was advantaged by OPV, a negative figure that they were disadvantaged. To explain these columns by again referring to Auburn. If the 48.8% exhausted preferences were distributed in the same proportion as votes with preferences, that is 68.2% to Labor and 31.8% to Liberal, then the predicted Labor (or winning candidate) 2CP% would have been 73.7%. Under this model, the advantage the Labor candidate would have received is (74.3% %) = +0.6%. In 71 of the 93 electorates, the winning candidate turns out to have been advantaged by OPV. In five of the electorates where the winning candidate was disadvantaged (Burrinjuck, Dubbo, Manly, Monaro, Wagga Wagga), the winning candidate did not lead on the primary vote, meaning that in 76 of the 93 contests, the candidate leading on primary votes received an advantage from OPV. 69

74 In the seven electorates where parties were disadvantaged by more than 1%, (Bligh, Burrinjuck, Dubbo, Manly, Monaro, Northern Tablelands, Wagga Wagga) the flow of preferences to the disadvantaged candidate was more than 69%. In other words, the disadvantage has been created by the loss of these strong flows of preferences. Significantly, three of these electorates saw threecornered contests where there was a loss of preferences between the Liberal and National Party candidates, and the other four saw Independents receiving strong flows of preferences from excluded Labor or Liberal candidates. There were five electorates where the winning party was advantaged by more than 4% (Bathurst, Cabramatta, Clarence, Keira, Marrickville). Each was won by the Labor party in contests where the flow of preferences was strongly against Labor. In these cases, the exhaustion of preferences has been to the advantage of winning candidate by cutting the number of preferences flowing to the second candidate. The results in the electorates of Albury, Clarence and Dubbo show most clearly how optional preferential voting assists the candidate with the highest primary vote. In both Albury and Clarence, if all exhausted preferences had distributed in the same proportion as votes that did show preferences, then the winning candidate would probably have lost. In both cases, the large number of exhausted preferences meant that there were not enough votes available for the second finishing candidate to overhaul the leading candidate after the distribution of preferences. Conversely, in Dubbo, the winning Independent candidate only just managed to win the electorate, the task of overhauling the leading National Party candidate on preferences made more difficult by the large number of exhausted preferences. The measurements of advantage and disadvantage shown in Table 3 must be treated with caution, because it is based on assumptions about the distribution of exhausted preferences that cannot be tested. However, they do support the assumption from theory that in most cases, optional preferential voting works to the advantage of the candidate and party with the highest primary vote in any electorate. 70

75 Table 3 : Analysis of the Impact of Optional Preferential Voting 2CP as % of Formal Vote % Preferences received Compulsory 2CP Electorate ALP Lib/Nat IND Exh ALP LNP IND Exh 2CP % Prediction Advantage Albury *** Auburn Ballina Bankstown Barwon Bathurst Baulkham Hills Bega Blacktown Bligh Blue Mountains Burrinjuck *** Cabramatta Camden *** Campbelltown Canterbury Cessnock Charlestown Clarence *** Coffs Harbour Coogee Cronulla *** Davidson Drummoyne Dubbo *** East Hills Epping Fairfield Georges River Gosford *** Granville Hawkesbury Heathcote Heffron Hornsby *** (See text on pages for explanation of table)

76 72 Table 3 : Analysis of the Impact of Optional Preferential Voting (Continued) 2CP as % of Formal Vote % Preferences received Compulsory 2CP Electorate ALP Lib/Nat IND Exh ALP LNP IND Exh 2CP % Prediction Advantage Illawarra Keira *** Kiama Kogarah Ku-Ring-Gai Lachlan Lakemba Lake Macquarie Lane Cove Lismore *** Liverpool Londonderry Macquarie Fields Maitland *** Manly *** Maroubra Marrickville Mount Druitt Menai *** Miranda *** Monaro *** Mulgoa Murrumbidgee Murray-Darling *** Myall Lakes Newcastle North Shore Northern Tablelands Orange *** Oxley *** Parramatta Peats Penrith Pittwater Port Jackson (See text on pages for explanation of table)

77 Table 3 : Analysis of the Impact of Optional Preferential Voting (Continued) 2CP as % of Formal Vote % Preferences received Compulsory 2CP Electorate ALP Lib/Nat IND Exh ALP LNP IND Exh 2CP % Prediction Advantage Port Macquarie Port Stephens Riverstone Rockdale Ryde South Coast *** Southern Highlands *** Smithfield Strathfield Swansea Tamworth The Entrance The Hills Tweed *** Upper Hunter Vaucluse Wagga Wagga *** Wakehurst Wallsend Wentworthville Willoughby Wollongong Wyong (See text on pages for explanation of table)