Colombian mitigation - INDC process. December, 2014 COP 20, Lima

Transcription

1 Colombian mitigation - INDC process December, 2014 COP 20, Lima

2 SECTORIAL EMISSIONS IN COLOMBIA AND PROJECTED SCENARIOS (BAU Scenario) DEFORESTACIÓ N 14% RESIDUOS 6% TRANSPORTE 12% EDIFICACIONES 3% AGROPECUARI O 39% MINERO ENERGÉTICO 14% INDUSTRIA 12%

3 Component 4. Capacity building. CLCDS Components Sectoral reference scenarios up to Identification of sectoral mitigation actions. Assessment of costs and abatement potential of mitigation measures. Component 1 Began 2012 Scenarios building, mitigation actions identification Component 2 Began 2013 Sectoral Mitigation Action Plans - SMAPs Mitigation options prioritization 8 SMAPS Policies Programs Measures Co-benefits analysis SMAPs implementation Policies and regulation NAMAs and Low Carbon projects formulation Development of MRV system. Development of financial and institutional arrangements Component 3 Began 2014 SMAP implementation Development and implementation of monitoring system Component 5. Communication and cooperation platform.

4 Mitigation Abatement Cost Curves Waste Agriculture Oil, gas and coal Energy generation Interconnected National System Industry Transportation

5 Sectoral Mitigation Action Plans Colombian Low Carbon Development Strategy Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development National Planning Department Ministry of Transport Ministry of Mining and Energy Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Ministry of Housing, Cities and Territories Transport SMAP Minning SMAP Industry SMAP Agriculture SMAP Housing SMAP Electricity SMAP Hydrocarbons SMAP Approved Under construction Solid Waste and Waste Water SMAP

6 SECTOR NAMA STATUS STAKEHOLDERS NAMA sugar cane block Improving energy efficiency in trapiches Pre-formulation FEDEPANELA MADS MADR Agriculture NAMA coffee Pre-formulation PNUD FEDECAFE MADS - MADR NAMA fruit trees, depending on the Identified MADR - CIAT vocation of land use Sustainable livestock and pasture systems Identified Proyectos silvopastoriles Replacement of Household Formulation CAF-MADS - ANDI - Refrigerators CCAP -MME -UPME Energy NAMA PORTFOLIO Energy Efficiency in Public Lighting Pre-formulation Findeter - BID - UNAL - UPME - MME Hotel Energy Efficiency Pre-formulation MADS - Perspectives Bancoldex Energy Efficiency in Public Edifications Identified UPME - GIZ Electrification with Renewable Energy in the grid connected system District Heating /Cooling Formulation Identified IPSE - MME UPME Carbon Trust MADS EPM -Coop. Suiza

7 NAMA PORTFOLIO SECTOR NAMA STATUS STAKEHOLDERS Transport/ NAMA TOD development MVCT-MT -MADS Urban Formulation oriented transport DNP-Findeter- CCAP Dvlpmnt Freight transport (NAMA Unilateral) Formulation MT - GIZ Transport Non- motorized transport Identified MT-GIZ -Transfer Urban transport Identified PMR - MT -MADS Metalworking Formulation MADS - MCIT PTP Industry Iron and steel industry Formulation MADS - MCIT- PTP NAMA in Bricks Industry Identified CAEM MADR Hidrocarbons Hydrocarbons Sector Identified ECOPETROL MVCT MADS Waste NAMA Formulation Waste CCAP Housing Sustainable Housing Pre-formulation MVCT - USAID GIZ Forestry Forest NAMA Pre-formulation MADS

8 INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE Goal: keep under 2 C Raise ambitiousness on INDCs Lessen gap of GHG emissions PARIS COP 21 ADP (D.2/CP17) Mandate to negotiate a new global treaty post-2020 ADP (D.1/CP19) Mandate to prepare INDCs Expected Decisions Lima Draft Decision on UFI Adoption Agreement Beginning of ratification process

9 MITIGATION GOALS - indc President Santos participated in the Climate Summit in New York (Sept.23) and reaffirmed the commitment of Colombia to present its "Contribution Nationally Determined" (INDC) On November 18 th the First High Level Meeting took place, attended by vice ministers, was held to agree on general rules. The Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development will lead the studies. However, active participation from other Ministers is expected The process has a significant milestone in March 2015, although the analyisis will continue throughout 2015 One of the fundamental principles is equity between sectors all should contribute"

10 INDC Roadmap (1) A Roadmap was agreed within the Climate Change International Affairs Committee to develop the national process (May, 2014) It includes the different activities that should be developed to prepared and agree a mitigation INDC, as well as to ensure its implementation in the coming years The roadmap cover technical, political and participatory activities International Milestones Cumbre CC Ban Ki-Moon COP 20 (Lima): decisión de UFI Presentación de contribuciones ante la CMNUCC para los países en capacidad de hacerlo (por mandato de la COP 19) Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic COP 21 (Paris): firma de nuevo instrumento legal Decision-making at the political level Top down Analysis Reuniones Interministeriales de Alto Nivel para lanzar y revisar avances del proceso Consulta con expertos para hacer exploración metodológica y diseño de una consultoría que apoye los aspectos políticos Construcción de Escenarios Adicionales: requerido por la ciencia, requerido por la equidad, instrumentos económicos (impuesto al carbono y cap-and-trade)

11 Technical process Top down Analysis Bottom- Up Analysis Consultations Construcción de Escenarios Adicionales: requerido por la ciencia, requerido por la equidad, instrumentos económicos (impuesto al carbono y cap-and-trade) Cálculo de potencial del mitigación de PAS y NAMAs - ECDBC Análisis para intensificar/incrementar ambición de los PAS Análisis AFOLU/REDD+ para su inclusión en la NDC Reuniones de Consulta con Equipo de Expertos INDC Roadmap (2) Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic Impact Assessment INDC Deliverables Participatory Process Mejoras al modelo de equilibrio general Integración de modelos de equilibrio parcial (ej: Markal, Times) Análisis de medidas bajo el MEG4C (análisis de impactos socio económicos) Versión preliminar de INDC Presentación de INDC ante CMNUCC Versión final para el Acuerdo de París (sujeto a acuerdos internacionales en la materia) Estrategia de Comunicaciones para la Contribución Lanzamiento de la Calculadora de Carbono NDC Implementation Scheme Discusiones con sociedad civil Construcción de acuerdos sobre elementos para la implementación de la contribución

12 WORK SCHEDULE March 31/15 INDC Proposal presentation COP 21 Agreement adoption of INDCs Sept/ 2014 Nov/ 2014 Jan/ 2015 Mar/ 2015 Dec/ 2015 Hig Level Meetings Carbon Calculator Sectorial Analysis Modeling Markal/MEG4C Implementation of Road-map for the INDC

13 TECHNICAL INPUTS FOR INDC Sectorial Mitigation Scenarios Baseline and project scenarios Abatement cost curves Sectorial Mitigation Action Plans (SMAPs) Identification of strategic lines of each sector Technical inputs for estimating goals Consulting for proposed mitigation targets based on advances in CLCDS(CCAP) Additional analyzes for agriculture and LULUCF Sectors Aggregate macroeconomic scenarios and impacts Aggregate mitigation scenarios Articulation of MARKAL-MEG4C Macroeconomic impacts of packages / mitigation targets Carbon Calculator 2050 Projected emissions to 2050 Selection of measures and design scope (options)

14 NAMAs and SMAPs to INDC Colombia has been working with CCAP and others on development of INDC, Goal: To identify an ambitious, realistic mitigation target for Colombia s INDC, compatible with its sustainable development challenges Bottom-Up process identifying opportunities for mitigation Measures in Sectoral Mitigation Action Plans (SMAPs) Efforts identified through NAMA Development (Waste, TOD) Additional measures based on previous sectoral experience Suggest approaches to implement and finance key measures In the initial phase, we have primarily looked at three sectors: Electric Energy Transport Waste Together, these sectors account for just under half of those emissions that don t come from Agriculture or Land Use in 2010 (45 MtCO 2 e) CCAP 14

15 Emissions in 2030 (MtCO2e) Reductions of MtCO 2 e in 2030 Waste Expansion of integrated waste management Reductions: 5.4 MtCO 2 e in 2030 vs. sector BAU (66%) 80,00 CCAP Proposed Measures vs. BAU in ,00 Transport Three areas of effort: 1) Freight 2) TOD 3) Passenger Vehicle Efficiency Reductions: MtCO 2 e in 2030 vs. sector BAU(14-16%) 60,00 50,00 40,00 Waste 30,00 Electricity SIN Electricity Integration of 15% Non-Hydro Renewables by 2030 Reductions: MtCO 2 e in 2030 vs. BAU (37-78%)* 20,00 10,00 0,00 BAU Mitigation Transport Scenario Together, these reductions represent MtCO 2 e (23-31%) below BAU for these sectors % of overall national emissions More work must be done in additional sectors Transport presents a major challenge because of growth in driving *NB In the modeled scenario, 2030 is a year of particularly low emissions due to El Niño

16 Tres niveles de detalle 2050 Analysis Product My2050 Web Tool Excel Spreadsheet Audience Educational tool and initial engagement for members of the public Technical expert stakeholders and well-informed public Technical expert stakeholders and policy-makers

17 Calculator Levels Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Without any efforts (Not business as usual) Effort described by most stakeholders as realizable Effort needed for a significant change - hard, but possible The maximum possible given geographical constraints, behavioral or engineering. (similar to "technical potential")

18 PROGRESS MADE UP TO DATE: FIRST COLOMBIAN BIENNIAL UPDATEREPORT (BUR) CHAPTER National Circumstances National Inventory of GHG Mitigation Actions Finance, cooperation and access to technology PROGRESS - STATUS Almost finalized Chapter. Institutional arrangements for TCNCC Calculations finalized for all sectors. In process of verification of results. IPCC, 2006 Guidelines Almost finalized Chapter. NAMAs, the CLCDS, participation in carbon markets and other mitigation actions Almost finalized Chapter. It includes climate finance, innovation and technology, technology needs assessment, amongts others.

19 xxx CHALLENGES

20 Partnerships

21 José Manuel Sandoval CLCDS Coordinator The Colombian Low carbon Development Strategy - CLCDS 21