AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES: PROFILES and RELEVANT WTO NEGOTIATING ISSUES

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1 AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES: PROFILES and RELEVANT WTO NEGOTIATING ISSUES

2 AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES: PROFILES and RELEVANT WTO NEGOTIATING ISSUES Prepared by the Commodities and Trade Division as a background document for the Consultation on Agricultural Commodity Price Problems March 22, Rome

3 Rome, 23

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 COMMODITY PROFILES 3 1. BASIC FOODSTUFFS 5 Grains 7 Rice 1 Beef 13 Pork 14 Poultry 14 Sheepmeat 15 Milk and milk products 17 Oilseeds, oils and fats, oilcakes and meals 2 Cassava 23 Pulses RAW MATERIALS 27 Cotton 29 Natural rubber 31 Jute 33 Hides and skins 35 Hard fibres TROPICAL PRODUCTS 39 Tropical Fruits SUGAR AND BEVERAGES 43 Sugar 45 Cocoa 48 Coffee 5 Tea HORTICULTURAL PRODUCTS 55 Citrus 57 Bananas 6 iii RELEVANCE OF SELECTED WTO NEGOTIATING ISSUES FOR MAJOR COMMODITIES 63 Grains 65 Rice 67 Meat 71 Oilcrops 73 Dairy products 76 Cotton 77 Rubber 78 Jute and hard fibres 79 Hides and skins and leather 8 Tropical fruits 81 Sugar 82 Cocoa 84 Coffee 85 Tea 86 Citrus and citrus juices 87 Bananas 89

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6 1 INTRODUCTION This report aims at providing a handy reference for those interested in basic facts concerning agricultural commodities. It draws on material presented by the Commodities and Trade Division at the Consultation on Commodity Price Problems, March 22, the proceedings of which have been issued separately. The following report is divided into two parts. The first presents brief profiles for each of the major traded agricultural commodities. They provide a convenient summary of the most important economic and market characteristics of each commodity. While the precise content of each profile differs to reflect commodity-specific key issues, all include descriptions of the general characteristics of the commodity concerned, the pattern of production and trade, market structure, institutions, trade policy measures, and major current issues and problems. Statistical information concerning production, trade and prices is presented graphically for easy reference. The second part provides brief assessments for sixteen commodities or commodity groups of the status of implementation of various policy measures disciplined under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, and of issues arising in the new round of multi-lateral trade negotiations. The assessments are summaries of information collected from special questionnaires sent to FAO member countries, as well as from a variety of sources monitored by FAO Commodity Specialists. The categories of policies reported, where appropriate, are: Tariffs: TRQs, tariff escalation, etc. Measures treated differently, as noted in Blue, Green and Amber Boxes Various export measures, such as subsidies, taxes, prohibitions and restrictions Special topics, such as food security and safety, special agricultural safeguards, environment, state trading enterprises etc.

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8 COMMODITY PROFILES

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10 1. BASIC FOODSTUFFS

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12 COMMODITY PROFILES 7 Characteristics of the grains 1 market GRAINS The bulk of the world s wheat production (8 percent) is located in North America (United States and Canada), Argentina, Europe (EC, CEEC, Russia), China, India, Australia and North Africa. For maize, the same share of world production is concentrated in a smaller number of countries, i.e. the United States, Europe (EC, CEEC), Argentina, Brazil and China. The United States alone accounts for 4 percent of the world s maize output. Other grain production is more widespread around the world. Grains are produced for three principal reasons: direct human consumption (41 percent), animal feed (45 percent) and other uses, including industrial consumption. Cereals (including rice) contribute 55-7 percent of the total calories in the diets of developing countries, and maize and wheat alone make up close to two-thirds of the world s food energy intake. Maize, wheat, barley, sorghum and oats are the main grains used in animal feeding, with maize accounting for about 6 percent of the world total. Industrial uses include malts for brewing, alcohol for fuels, starches and sweeteners. Wheat is the most important cereal traded on international markets. The developing countries account for nearly 8 percent of all wheat imports. The United States ranks as the world s largest wheat exporter, contributing around one-third of world export volume. Among the developing countries, the only major exporter is Argentina, although Turkey and few other countries could also have export surpluses on occasions. Trade in coarse grains closely matches that of wheat, especially in recent years, and maize accounts for most of the traded coarse grains. Developing countries account for over 6 percent of all coarse grain imports. Patterns of grain production and consumption World wheat production expanded at an annual rate of 1.2 percent over the past two decades while coarse grains grew by.9 percent annually. Grain production grew the fastest in the developing countries during the previous two decades (2.5 percent per year), while in the developed countries growth was virtually flat because of supply control measures, in response to changes in domestic and international policies, and the collapse of grain production in the countries of Eastern Europe and the former USSR. Similar to the trends in production, the fastest growth in grain consumption was recorded in the developing countries during the past two decades (2.8 percent annually). Food consumption of grains in developing countries grew at 2.2 percent per year, compared to 1.7 percent for the world total, allowing for an increase in per caput food consumption of about 5 kilograms. In the developing countries, the growth rate for feed use of grains was 4.4 percent annually over the same period, compared to a.8 percent at the global level. Behind the stronger growth rates in food and feed in the developing countries were the tendencies of low-income families to spend more of their additional income on food and rural-to-urban migration resulting in changes in diets towards higher-protein grains and livestock products. Trade and price policy developments Prior to 199s, two dominant, yet unpredictable, buyers, namely the former USSR and China, triggered the sharpest year-to-year price swings. The break up of the USSR not only eliminated the world s largest grain importer but also led to the accumulation of unsold grains (hence large inventories) in major exporting countries, which continued to overhang the markets through Between 199 and 1995, major exporters accelerated their use of export discounts and subsidies in order to reduce their large stocks and excess production. This, coupled with serious production problems across the globe, resulted in 1996 in sharp reduction in inventories to levels not seen since the early 197s, which was the prime reason for the sudden surge in grain prices from 1995 through mid Grain prices remained on a declining path between 1997 and 2, mostly because of weak export demand, the emergence of nontraditional grain exporters, reformed stock policies and producer support in the face of declining prices mainly developed countries. 1 Grains include wheat, maize, barley, sorghum, millets, oats, rye and minor grains.

13 8 COMMODITY PROFILES Production-friendly policies adopted by a number of net-import, grain-producing countries, such as Pakistan and India, also contributed to maintaining the downward pressure on prices. In addition, China, once a major grain importer, also encouraged higher production so that by the late 199s the country needed to import only small amounts of grains. China s maize production also began to exceed domestic demand which gave rise to a period of rising stocks and exports. The absence of China as a major wheat importer and its continuing maize sales into the world market continue to put downward pressure on international prices. Emerging issues Driven by the high financial burden of rising inventories along with the preparation for WTO, which prohibits the continuation of export subsidies, China has started to reform its grain economy by reducing production incentives and lowering its large stocks. Brazil is emerging as a potential grain export competitor due to its low costs of production, especially for maize, and its vast, unused land resources, despite facing high transportation costs from its grain production zones to its export ports. Proposals to increase spending under the United States farm bill and the Agenda 2 reforms to expand the EC to include 1 new central and eastern European countries may have significant impacts on international grain markets, which may lead to expansion of grain production and additional downward pressure on international grain.

14 COMMODITY PROFILES 9 million tonnes 7 6 Wheat Production Trends World Developed countries Developing countries million tonnes 1 Coarse Grain Production Trends World 8 6 Developed countries US$/tonne 25 Deflated Grain Price Trends 4 Developing countries Wheat, U.S. No.2 Hard Winter 15 1 Maize, U.S. No.2 Yellow million tonnes Wheat and Coarse Grain Trade Wheat Coarse Grains Grain Trade Shares Exporters (Top five + others) Importers (Top five + others) Argentina 1% EC 12% Others 17% Canada 1% USA 41% Others 65% Japan 12% Korea Rep. 6% Mexico 7% Egypt 5% China 5% 1% Australia

15 1 COMMODITY PROFILES RICE Characteristics of the market Rice is a major food staple and a mainstay for the rural population and for household food security. It is mainly cultivated by small farmers in holdings of less than one hectare. Rice also plays an important role as a wage commodity for workers in the cash crop or non-agricultural sectors. Global rice production in the 199s has been expanding at 1.8 percent per year, marginally above population growth. Developing countries account for 95 percent of the total, with China and India alone responsible for over half of world output. Most of increase recorded in the 199s has been sustained by productivity gains rather than land expansion. Global trade in rice has expanded on average by 7 percent a year over the 199s. Despite such a dynamic growth, the international rice market remains thin, accounting for only 5-6 percent of global output. Unlike for other bulk commodities, the international rice market is segmented into a large number of varieties and qualities, which are not easily interchangeable because of relatively strong consumer preferences. Ordinary indica rices are the most commonly traded, accounting for some 8 percent of international flows by the end of the 199s, followed by aromatic (Basmati and fragrant rices), at 1 percent, and medium and glutinous rices at 9 percent and 1 percent respectively. Changing patterns of international trade in rice Developing countries are the main players in world rice trade, with a share of 83 percent of world exports and of 85 percent of world imports. The concentration is particularly high on the export side, since five countries (Thailand, Vietnam, China, the United States and India) supply about three-quarters of the trade. This contrast with the fragmentation of import markets and the wide year-to-year fluctuations in individual countries purchases, as most importers do not rely consistently on the international market to get rice supplies, but only as a last resort to fill the gap caused by a production shortfall. Because of the special characteristics of the commodity for food security and political stability, a significant share of trade is conducted by state trading enterprises, some of which are also vested with the obligation of procuring or distributing rice domestically. This applies to both importing and exporting countries. Government-to-Government transactions, which used to account for about half of world trade in the 197s, are now estimated to account for less than 1 percent. In the last few years, however, they have regained some popularity as low international prices have incited or compelled Governments to play a more active role in trade to gain bargaining power or as an indirect means to sustain producer prices. Thrust of government policies Government support to producers in the developing countries has mainly concentrated on research in improved or hybrid rice varieties, investments in irrigation, preferential credits, extension and distribution of improved seed. Intervention to influence prices is also common, through procurement purchases or releases from stocks, or through changes in trade policies. In the developed countries, much assistance to the sector is being conveyed through direct payments and through price support. In general, the involvement of the public sector in paddy processing and rice distribution to consumers has been more limited. However, management of rice stocks or trade policy measures has been used extensively to stabilize domestic market prices. Trade measures, especially tariffs, are widely used to protect domestic rice markets. Besides relatively high WTO bound tariffs, rice imports are often subject to special safeguard in countries schedules. Many commercial transactions are conducted through government-to-government deals, without much transparency. Restrictions on exports of paddy or husked rice are very common, in order to promote the processing of rice domestically. Because of the importance of rice as a staple food, many governments maintain minimum food reserves for food security. In addition, countries engaged in rice distribution schemes and producer price support usually hold large rice inventories in public stores.

16 COMMODITY PROFILES 11 Rice stands as one of the most protected traded commodities. However, because of its importance for food security, income generation and political stability, governments may be reluctant to decrease that protection and is being promoted for consideration in the forthcoming round of multilateral trade negotiations. Current issues and problems Falling international prices have been the principal cause for concern in the last few years, both for the importing and exporting countries. The slide in world quotations is a reflection of expansionary production policies in a large number of countries. Supply releases from stocks have also been instrumental in keeping the downward pressure on prices. Although genetically modified rice varieties have been developed (mainly as a way to enhance its nutritious characteristics, e.g. golden rice or to adapt the rices to extreme growing condition, e.g. varieties tolerant to salty water), the issue about their acceptability world-wide has not yet gained prominence because rices produced from such varieties are not yet widely traded. More important, concerns have arisen regarding the use of Basmati rice denomination and claims of bio-piracy on fragrant rice genes. Rice production sites are often the habitat of a wide variety of birds and plants. Water management in rice lands also ensures a soil desalination process essential to the maintenance of land fertility. As a result, environmental concerns are frequently brought up in defence of the sector, especially in the developed countries.

17 12 COMMODITY PROFILES Global Rice Production and Consumption mill.tonnes 42 Production Consumption 4 (milled basis) estim. Global Rice Trade Volume and Share in Global Production mill.tonnes, milled 3 25 Exports Share of Production % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Major Rice Producers Major Rice Importers and Import Shares Others 26% China 33% Nigeria Iran 3.6% 3.6% Brazil 4.1% Vietnam 5% Bangladesh 6% Indonesia 8% India 22% Philippines 4.9% Bangladesh 6.3% Indonesia 15.9% thousand tonnes, milled equivalent Major Rice Exporters and Export Shares Pakistan 7.9% India 11.4% USA 11.4% China 12.9% Viet Nam 15.6% Thailand 26.2% thousand tonnes, milled equivalent FAO Export Price Index for Rice =

18 COMMODITY PROFILES 13 BEEF Characteristics of the market The extensive nature of beef production, difficulties in vertically integrating the beef production/processing chain, as well as stagnant beef demand in developed countries have constrained growth in global beef production to only one percent annual growth over the past decade. The process of technical innovation and restructuring has proceeded slowly in the beef sector, constrained by the small size of farms and the other special roles these animals play in a large numbers of countries, e.g. as capital assets, for dairy production, social status and draught power. Trade growth, while rising 2 percent annually, lags considerably that of total meats, which has registered almost double-digit annual growth over the same period, leading to beef s share of global meat trade declining to 3 percent recently from 45 percent in the early 199 s. In addition, animal disease outbreaks and food safety issues (particularly related to BSE) around the world have raised considerable health concerns among consumers and limited consumption growth in developing countries and moved consumption to other meats. Developing countries share of imports beef remained unchanged over the past decade despite the growth in trade, while its shares in exports declined from 6 percent to 4 percent. Constraints to expanded beef exports by developing countries include disease issues, particularly FMD, which is endemic to many countries, increasing number of SPS regulations, and the higher relative price of beef to alternative meats. Policy developments affecting international beef trade Global beef markets, over the late 199 s, have been characterised by a gradual dismantling of trade barriers, with countries reducing tariffs and replacing non-tariff barriers by tariff rate quotas (TRQs). However, increasing instances of animal diseases affecting beef, particularly BSE and FMD have led countries over the period to impose import bans and stricter sanitary requirements, as well as other technical barriers, such as requirements on labelling and animal traceability schemes. While progress towards the restructuring and privatisation of the beef sectors in many developing countries continued in the late 199s, this trend was disrupted as animal disease outbreaks in developing countries resulted in increasing support to livestock sector while heightened concerns regarding food safety and animal disease issues escalated the trend for countries to enact legislation to improve meat quality standards. Beef trade has been, in general, significantly influenced by WTO provisions, especially the URA limits on subsidized exports as witnessed by the declining share of the EC in world beef exports since Of the various meat products, the global market for beef was expected to feel the most direct effects from the policy development under the AoA because both export subsidies and market access barriers were more prevalent for beef than for other meats. Challenges in the future Despite a progressive dismantling of trade barriers to beef trade and country specific initiatives to reduce expenditures on government support, the support for beef industries around the world remains high. The extensive nature of beef production limits the transfer of new technology to the sector and the productivity increases which have benefited the pork and poultry industries. This combined with stagnant beef demand in many developed countries will limit overall growth in the industry. Participation of developing countries in the global beef market will continue to be constrained by difficulties in managing animal disease issues as well as the challenge of meeting increasing more stringent food safety regulations in developed countries.

19 14 COMMODITY PROFILES PORK Characteristics of the market The international pork economy, while witnessing 3 percent production gains over the past decade, continues to be a very concentrated market. China, the EC, the US, Brazil, Canada, and Poland represent a combined share of more than 8 percent of global pork production and nearly 9 percent of global pork exports. China while accounting for nearly one half of global production, accounts for only 5 percent of global exports. Japan and Russia, on the other hand, account for more than one-half of world pork imports.. Global pork markets are relatively thin, with less than 4 percent of world output traded internationally. This is partially due to cultural/religious preferences in consuming markets where, in many instances, poultry and beef are preferred to pork. In addition, pork trade has been handicapped by problems associated with heterogeneous quality. The heterogeneous quality of pork products is being addressed by structural improvements in hog industries in major exporting countries with larger, and more integrated, operations using production technologies that yield a more consistent quality of pork. The ease of transferring technologies in the area of genetics, feeding, and the growing move in investment flows from developed to developing countries is increasing the size of pigmeat operations also in developing countries. Policy developments affecting international trade Markets for pigmeat are less restricted than those for beef products. However, the Asian markets, constituting nearly 5 percent of imports, with Japan alone accounting nearly one-third, than maintain relatively high tariffs. A WTO-safeguard provision allows a snapback provision to be implemented in Japan in the case of import surges, raising tariffs and restricting imports. Other importers, such as the EC and Mexico, have in place TRQ s which limit imports, while the EU, one of the largest pigmeat exporters, periodically uses its export subsidy allocation for pigmeat of 4 tonnes. Challenges in the future Larger and more concentrated production processed have been accompanied by rising environmental concerns which, in developed countries, have driven increases in the stringency of environmental regulations facing animal feeding operations. However, industries in developing countries are also expanding operations without accompanying environmental regulations, raising questions about the longterm sustainability of livestock operations. Characteristics of the market POULTRY Growth in livestock production in both developed and developing countries has been led by the poultry sector, with poultry contributing nearly 5 percent of meat production gains over the past decade. Output growth in developing countries, increasing by 8 percent over the decade, has expanded at double the rate of that in developed countries, now constituting more than half of global production. Increasing productivity in the sector, as production units have become more integrated, concentrated, and better managed, has allowed poultry meat to be produced at a lower cost than competing meats. This has led to double digit gains in trade over the past decade, now accounting for nearly 43 percent of world meat trade, up from 25 percent in 199. Much of the growth in import demand has stemmed from developing/transitional economies, in particular China and Russia, which now account for over one-third of global poultry trade. Several important events have shaped demand for poultry imports over the past 5 years. Animal disease outbreaks, particularly BSE, shifted consumption and trade demand away from beef to pork and poultry.

20 COMMODITY PROFILES 15 Policy developments affecting international poultry trade Among the meat sectors, poultry is perhaps the least protected and is consequently characterized by the fewest new market access opportunities under the Agreement on Agriculture. Canada and Mexico contribute the main share of TRQ access opportunities. Additional marginal gains in trade may be attributed to TRQ commitments by several Central American countries, including Costa Rica and Guatemala. The use of export subsidies for poultry meat is sanctioned under the AoA with levels gradually declining from the 82 tonnes authorised in 1995 to an estimated 594 tonnes in 2. However, the actual use of these subsidies is lower, with only EC and Hungary regularly using their allocations. Challenges in the future Trading patterns in poultry meat will continue to be shaped by the increasing specialisation of operations which focus on value-added processing. This will result in low-cost labour markets importing commodity products (leg quarters), providing value-added and re-exporting. This will increasingly occur in Asian markets, a region with the highest growth opportunities. SHEEPMEAT Characteristics of the market The sheep and goat sector is of least significance in the world meat economy, accounting for less than 5 percent of world production and trade. Except for a small number of countries in Asia, in particular China, which contributed to sustained growth at the global level, there has been a tendency for the sector to contract over the last decade, which can partly attributed to low wool prices. However, because of the resistance of sheep and goats to harsh rearing conditions and their cultural role, these animals are important for food security and social cohesion, especially in Africa and the Near East. In Africa, in particular, this sector is of particular importance, constituting 26 percent of total meat output and serving as an important source of income for many vulnerable families. Global trade of sheep and goat meat is very concentrated, with New Zealand and Australia accounting for 9 percent of global shipments which are destined for three major markets: the EC, the US, and the Middle East. Increasingly, the composition of lamb exports is shifting to higher-valued chilled product. Live sheep/goat trade is of considerable importance to the sectors in Africa, particularly to countries in the Horn of Africa. Animal disease concerns related to Rift Valley Fever, however, constrain animal movements. Difficulties in resolving trade barriers in the region have been complicated by the fact that only a few of the countries involved in this trade are members of the World Trade Organisation. Policy developments affecting international trade Sheepmeat sectors in developed countries tend to be recipients of high domestic support; this is particularly true in Western European countries and the US. This protection is accompanied by the imposition of TRQs, which have been successfully challenged through the WTO. The WTO accession of China and the Chinese Province of Taiwan is likely to support the global lamb industry, as declining tariffs could increase market access and trade. Challenges in the future The sheepmeat sector is expected to continue to contract in developed countries with meat preferences shifting away from lamb, as a speciality product. Consequently, it is a market with only limited potential for developing countries interested in expanding exports. Sheep and goat production will continue to be of critical importance to some countries in Africa and Asia, both for food security and export earnings. Animal disease control and membership in WTO will shape the abilities of many of these countries to participate in and benefit from increased access to global markets.

21 16 COMMODITY PROFILES WORLD MEAT EXPORT : WORLD MEAT IMPORT : Million mt Million mt Developed Countries Developing Countries Developed Countries Developing Countries MEAT PRODUCTION BY TYPE : WORLD P/C MEAT CONSUMPTION : Million mt kg per year Beef and Buffalo Meat Sheep and Goat Meat Pigm eat Poultry Meat Developed Countries Developing Countries =1 11 WORLD MEAT PRICE INDEX :

22 COMMODITY PROFILES 17 MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS Characteristics of the market Most of the world s milk production is concentrated in the developed countries, especially Europe and North America; however, some developing countries are important producers, for example, India, Pakistan and Brazil. Milk production is growing most strongly in the developing countries, as a result of increased consumption in this group of countries. There are, however, substantial differences in the characteristics and level of development of production and processing capacity between countries. In many developed countries all milk is essentially collected from the farm and processed before being distributed to the consumer. While, in some developing countries the bulk of milk is processed and consumed on farm or at the village level, with little or no additional processing. Even between countries with similar levels of dairy development, characteristics of production activities can vary substantially. Patterns of milk production and consumption During the first part of the 199 s, overall world milk production declined, principally as a result of falling output in Eastern Europe and the former USSR. Since the mid-199 s, world milk production has been growing at the rate of 1 or 2 percent per year. Throughout the 199 s and into this decade, the relative importance of milk production in the developing countries has continued to increase. Milk output has also grown significantly in Australia and New Zealand, where low costs of production have led to increased participation in the world market. Comparing milk consumption in developing and developed countries, substantial differences exist: average consumption of milk and milk products (in milk equivalent) in the developing countries is 2 litres/person/year, compared to 45 litres/person/year in the developing countries. Milk consumption is growing in the developing countries, as personal income levels increase and diets become more diversified. Conversely, in the developed countries, consumption of milk overall is stable, with the main changes beginning switches from one type of product to another, for example from drinking milk to eating cheese, rather than in total consumption. Trade and price policy developments Developed countries account for 9 percent of exports of milk and milk products. Although small, the participation of developing countries in international exports is increasing, reflecting mainly growing sales from the southern-cone countries of South America. Developing countries account for 7 percent of imports of milk and milk products. Since the start of the 199 s, the relative importance of the type of products traded has moved away from the traditional bulk commodities of skimmed milk powder and butter/butter oil to whole milk powder and cheese. This reflects changes in import preferences and a movement on the part of exporting countries away from lower-value products. Over the same period, the participation of state trading companies in the import market has been substantially reduced and the importance of private sector importers has increased. This has been reflected in fewer large-scale, periodic purchases of bulk commodities and the development of smallerscale, but more regularly spaced, purchases of more highly specified products. As a result of domestic policies to limit milk production and URA commitments on the use of export subsidies, participation of Europe and North America as exporters of dairy products has decreased. Conversely, exports by Australia and New Zealand have grown substantially and exports by southern South American countries, especially Argentina and Uruguay, have increased. International prices for milk and milk products have been characterised by a substantial degree of volatility as supply and demand on the world market are generally finely balanced.

23 18 COMMODITY PROFILES Emerging issues The movement from a market dominated by northern hemisphere countries (and the use of export subsidies) to one dominated by non-subsidising exporters implies that supplies to the world market will be less controlled, as the use of government financed stocks and production controls decline in importance. Additionally, as supplies to the export market will come increasing from countries with pasture-based systems of production. The combination of these two factors may lead to prices for dairy commodities traded on the international market showing substantial variations in future years. In an effort to reduce dependence on the bulk commodity market, many exporting countries are placing greater emphasis on developing more highly specified products. Beyond this, the movement amongst exporting countries from surplus disposal to market development means that an increasing volume of dairy products is being exported as retail-branded products and not as bulk commodities. International dairy companies, many of which have their headquarters in Europe or North America, are making substantial investments in areas of the world where milk consumption is increasing or where supplies of low-priced milk are available. Consequently, such companies are able leap-frog over national domestic policy measures or URA commitments limiting production or trade in the products they produce.

24 COMMODITY PROFILES 19 million tonnes 7 Global Milk Production Developing Countries Developed Countries kg 25 illi t Dairy Supply/Cap/Yr Developed Countries Developing Countries million tonnes 5 WORLD DAIRY TRADE Exports (milk equivalents) Developing Countries Developed Countries million tonnes WORLD DAIRY TRADE Imports (milk equivalents) Developing Countries Developed Countries 17 Dairy Price Index =

25 2 COMMODITY PROFILES OILSEEDS, OILS AND FATS, OILCAKES AND MEALS Characteristics of the market Oilseeds and oleaginous fruits include a wide range of crop and tree plants that are grown under a variety of agro-ecological conditions across the globe, by variety of different types of producers. Except soybeans, over 9 percent of global oilcrop production occurs in tropical and subtropical countries. Only a small part of production is directly consumed as food; the bulk of production is processed into oil and cakes/meals for use as food and feedstuffs respectively. The sector is characterized by a strong integration with downstream processing industries. Oils and fats play an important role in human diets across the world (primarily as energy source), while the meals and cakes derived from oilcrops represent a primary protein source for feedstuffs in many countries. In several countries, the contribution of the oilcrop sector to overall export earnings is substantial. A number of countries - developed and developing depend on imports of oilseeds and derived products to satisfy domestic demand for these goods. As a result, oilseeds and oleaginous fruits and the products derived thereof form the second largest group of agricultural commodities traded internationally (in value terms), after cereals, averaging over US$ 51 billion annually during the period The markets for the oilcrop are particularly complex because on the supply sides crops are both annual and perennial, while on the demand side tend to be influenced by factors ranging from competition with feed grains to demand for livestock products, for oils for food as wells as industrial (paints, bio-fuels, detergents etc.) uses. Overall production pattern World oilseed production has expanded at over 3 percent per year during the last decade. Soybean is by far the most important oilseed, followed by rapeseed, cottonseed, groundnut and sunflowerseed. The share of developing and developed countries in total production is respectively 58 and 42 percent. In a number of developing countries there is considerable potential for expansion of oilcrop production through both yield improvements as well as expansion in cultivated area. Compared to developed countries, average yield levels are considerably lower in developing countries. Soybean and rapeseed yields, for example, are, respectively, 3 and 6 percent lower in developing countries. Asia (which includes the two majors players China and India) is the world s leading production region, followed closely by North America and then South America. Europe and Africa play a more limited role. The oilseeds group includes some of the crops most affected by the recent strides made in the area of genetic modification. Cultivation of GMO oilseeds has rapidly expanded in recent years and accounts for the bulk of production in certain countries. In terms of oils and fats, the developing countries share in global production exceeds 6 percent, with Asia alone accounting for over 4 percent. The share of tropical oils (derived from the fruits of the oil and coconut palm) in overall vegetable oil production is increasing steadily. In the case of oilmeals and cakes, the single most important producing regions are North and South America, which together account for over 7 percent of production. The group of developing countries accounts for about 53 percent of global output. Overall consumption pattern Global consumption of oils and fats expanded at about 3.5 percent per year during the last decade. Growth in global oil consumption has been led by palm oil in recent years (as opposed to soyoil in earlier years). About 6 percent of global consumption occurs in developing countries, prompted by steady population increases and rising incomes, particularly in Asia As to per caput consumption of oils and fats, average intake in developing countries does not exceed 16 kg, less than half of that in developed countries. With regard to oilcakes and meals, close to 6 percent of global utilization occurs in developed countries. However, annual growth in consumption in developing countries (over 7 percent annually in the 199s) by far exceeds expansion recorded in developed countries, reflecting changing consumer preferences that

26 COMMODITY PROFILES 21 accompany income growth and greater concentration in livestock production in the former group of countries. Overall trade pattern Within the oilseeds complex, seeds account for about 3 percent of the total value of trade, whereas the share of the two sub-products, oils and meals, amount to 55 and 15 percent respectively. Eight oilseeds and the respective oils and cakes/meals account for over 9 percent of global trade. Soybean and its meal dominate trade in oilseeds and meals, whereas palm oil and soyoil are the most important vegetable oils traded. The proportion of world supply entering international trade - at almost 4 percent in the case of oils and close to 5 percent for meals - exceeds those recorded for most other basic foodstuffs. During the last two decades, trade in oilseeds and products experienced considerable growth, encouraged mostly by economic expansion in many regions of the world. With average annual growth rates at 4 percent or above, expansion in trade of oilseed products (during the 199s) was strong compared to that recorded for other sectors. Most of this expansion emanated from importing developing countries, with Asia playing a central role in recent years. With regard to oils and fats specifically, imports have surged in many developing nations as domestic demand is expanding at a faster rate than production. This process has partly been aided by increased market liberalization. Also global trade in oilmeals continues to rise, again on account of sustained demand increases in developing countries, accounting for about two thirds of the expansion in global trade. By contrast, growth in oilmeal imports by developed countries is rather limited, as reduced expansion in the livestock sector slows down the demand for meals. In recent years, a number of importing countries shifted from the importation of oils or meals to purchases of oilseeds so as to promote domestic processing and value addition. With regard to exports, a main feature of the market is the high level of concentration, with three developed and eight developing countries accounting for some 9 percent of world exports of oilseeds and derived products. This applies in particular to the market for vegetable oils, where the dominance of some key players and a few major oils is felt strongly, especially under conditions of general oversupply as observed in recent years. Whether the recent expansion in genetically modified oilcrop varieties in some countries will lead to separate markets for GMO and non-gmo crops (including the respective price differentiation) remains to be seen. General trends in policies 2 In general, over the last several years, the URA-induced trend towards a gradual reduction of potentially market distorting, direct government intervention in production, marketing and international trade of oilseed-based products has continued. However, more recently, as a result decreasing prices a number of exporting countries stepped up direct support to domestic producers and to increase export promotion efforts, while major importing countries tended to raise border protection in an effort to shield domestic industries form international competition. It is important to note, however, that, in supporting the oilseeds sector, WTO member countries generally adhered to the commitments made under the URA. 2 A proper review of policies affecting production, marketing, consumption and international trade of oilseeds, oils and meals goes beyond the scope of this note. For a detailed discussion of policies implemented world-wide during the period please refer to the FAO/ESCB publication Review of Basic Food Policies - 21.

27 22 COMMODITY PROFILES Global Production of Oils/Fats and Meals 13 Thousand Tons / / / / / / / / / 2/1 21/2 f'cast Marketing Years Oils/Fats Meals (Protein Equiv.) 17 FAO Quarterly Price Indices for Oils/Fats and Meals (199-92=1) /94 92/93 91/92 98/99 97/98 96/97 95/96 94/95 Marketing Years /1 99/ Oils/Fats Oilmeals/cakes Global Trade of Oils/Fats and Meals 11 Thousand Tons / / / / / / / / / 2/1 21/2 f'cast Marketing Years Oils/Fats Meals

28 COMMODITY PROFILES 23 CASSAVA General characteristics Cassava is cultivated in most tropical countries situated in the equatorial belt, which attest to its adaptability to a wide range of ecosystems. Some of the characteristics of the crop are its efficiency in producing carbohydrate, its tolerance to drought and to impoverished soils, and its high flexibility with respect to the time of planting and harvesting, and therefore plays an essential role for food security. It is the world's fourth most important staple after rice, wheat and maize and an important component in the diet of over a billion people. Patterns of production and trade Almost 7 percent of world production is concentrated in five countries Nigeria, Brazil, Thailand and the Congo Democratic Republic. The bulk of world trade in cassava consists of pellets and chips for feed (8 percent) and the balance in starch and flour for food and industrial use. Thailand and Indonesia are the major suppliers to the world markets, contributing respectively for some 85 and 1 percent of total trade; while small farmers in Asia, Africa and Latin America provide the remainder. The European Community is the main destination for cassava traded products, particularly chips and pellets for the feed industries and volume is sensitive to developments in livestock and feed markets. In recent years, falling grain prices coupled with environmental concerns and animal diseases outbreaks have depressed demand in the EC, causing imports of chips and pellets to fall more than 4 percent. However the contraction in the EC market was more than compensated by larger purchases by countries in the Far East, in particular China, stimulated by very attractive prices. International cassava prices Since 199 the international prices of cassava pellets exported to the EC have fluctuated from a minimum of US$ 82 per tonne to a maximum of US$ 182 per tonne, though hitting historical lows during the past five years. The decline was essentially due to the downward pressure exercised by the competitive grain pricing policy in the EC and the weakness of the Euro compared to the US dollar.

29 24 COMMODITY PROFILES

30 COMMODITY PROFILES 25 PULSES General characteristics Pulses are the edible dry mature seeds of leguminous crops, excluding those harvested for fresh products which are classified as vegetables. Pulses include dry beans, dry peas, dry broad beans, chickpeas, lentils, cow peas, pigeon peas, lupins, vetches and pulses. Pulses are produced throughout the world. Pulse crops, especially in developing countries, are planted on marginal land and grown under rain-fed conditions, which explain their low yields and large year-to-year production variability. Over 6 percent of total utilisation of pulses is for human consumption. Pulses, especially dry peas, are also used as feedstuff. Some 25 percent of pulse total use goes for feeding animals, namely pigs and poultry. On the nutrition side, pulses are known for their high protein content and also as a good source of energy. They also contain significant amounts of other essential nutrients like calcium, iron and lysine. The importance of pulses in human diets varies from region to region and country to country, with a general trend of higher consumption in lower income nations. The share of food use in total utilisation of pulses in the developing countries is over 75 percent, compared to 25 percent in the developed countries. Pulses, by contributing about 1 percent in the daily protein intake and 5 percent in energy intake, are of particular importance for food security in low income countries where the major sources of proteins are non-animal products. Patterns of production and trade Production of the major pulses, except dry pea, is concentrated in developing countries; with developing countries accounting for 7 percent. Dry pea production is dominated by developed countries, accounting for over 8 percent of the global dry pea output. World pulse production posted a low growth rate over the past two decades (1.3 percent) partly due to low profitability of pulse crops relative to other crops. Global trade in pulses exhibited a positive trend since 198 with an annual growth rate of 7 percent, translating into some 5-million-ton increase in absolute terms. The proportion of pulse production that is traded increased from 6-7 percent in the early 198s to about 15 percent currently. For market composition, dry peas are the largest traded pulse with a 37 percent share of the total pulse trade, followed by dry beans (28 percent), lentils (9 percent) and chickpeas (8 percent). International market structure Global trade in pulses is not a residual market, as several countries produce for the export market, while many others rely on the world market to meet domestic demand. The largest market for food pulses is South Asia (mainly Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka), while the largest market for feed pulses is the European Union (EU-15). In , over 7 percent of global pulse exports were supplied by 5 countries: Canada Australia, Myanmar, China and the United States. On the import side, 5 percent of global pulse imports in were made by 6 countries: EU, India, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Mexico.

31 26 COMMODITY PROFILES World pulse production and utilisation Millions Production Food Use Feed Use 1 World pulse exports Volum e (MMt) Value (billion US$) Shares of major pulse exporters Shares of major pulse importers China 9% Mexico 3% USA 9% Bangladesh 3% Myanmar Aus tralia 1% 11% Pakistan Egypt India 4% 4% 7% Canada 32% EU-15 27%

32 2. RAW MATERIALS

33

34 COMMODITY PROFILES 29 COTTON General characteristics Although more than 1 countries plant cotton, both production and trade are relatively concentrated in a few countries. Production World cotton production increased by 62 percent since 197 for three major reasons: the emergence of new producers, expansion by existing producers, and increase in yields. Some major producers such as Australia emerged since 197. Others such as China, India and Brazil saw their yield nearly double. In 21/2, two major producers, the United States and China accounted for 43 percent of total output in the world. Nearly 9 percent of world production was from 9 countries. Adoption of transgenic cotton and significant extension of the area under cotton in Brazil and Turkey may have significant effect on world production in future. The adoption of biotech cotton reached 16 percent of world total production area in 21 and production costs in some of these new areas are believed to be lower than the current world market price. Trade World cotton exports currently about 6 million tonnes, 3 percent of world production. The United States, Former USSR, Australia and EC account for nearly 65 percent of world exports. EC, China, Indonesia, Mexico, Former USSR, Turkey, Thailand and Korean Republic account for 62 percent of world imports. Trade in textiles is the major force driving cotton imports and exports. Developed countries are the major cotton exporters. Countries in Asia accounted for more than one-third of world imports in 21/2. Production, exports and food security Cotton production generates cash income for millions of rural households. More than 2 million rural households in China and 1 million in India and Pakistan produce cotton. Cotton textiles contribute to employment, food imports and trade balance in many developing countries. Trade restrictions, domestic supports and world prices There are no significant restrictions in trade in raw cotton. Domestic support and export subsidies in major producing and exporting countries affect production and trade, and contributed to the lower world price over recent years. In 2, world cotton prices dropped to a record low of about US$.45 per pound ( A Index). Domestic support policies, advances in technology including bio-tech cotton, weak demand, emergence of low cost producers and competition from man-made fibres, are responsible for the low prices.

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