Potential Impact of Changes in MN Math Grad Testing for Students in Bloomington Public Schools

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1 Potential Impact of Changes in MN Math Grad Testing for Students in Bloomington Public Schools David Heistad, Executive Director Research, Evaluation and Assessment Bloomington Public Schools December, 2012

2 Context for the Study Bloomington Public Schools has embarked on a comprehensive initiative to prepare students for graduation and college readiness. As part of that initiative, the REA Department in Bloomington conducted a series of longitudinal growth analyses in reading and math to establish benchmarks for graduation and college readiness.

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4 Methodology ACT scores were captured for all students who took the test in 2011 and matched by name and student id number to the results of the 11 th grade Math MCAII and the GRAD test used to determine initial graduation status. Using an equal percentile method, the MCAII Math scores were linked with ACT Math scores. Using MN Office of Higher Ed data on the typical ACT scores of admitted students, classification accuracy analysis was conducted using MCAII Math scores as the predictor.

5 Distribution of 2011 Bloomington ACT Scores College Eligible but not On track to graduate based on MCA >= 1145 On track to graduate Based on Math Grad & College Eligible

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7 2011 Bloomington ACT Math Results Number of 11 th Grade Students = 751 8% 14% 26% 42% Didn't take ACT ACT year college (18-24) U of M (25-28) Carleton (29-36) 10%

8 Results Based on the Bloomington linking study, passing the MCAII Math Test in 11 th grade with a score of 1150 or higher is equivalent to an ACT math score of 22. Passing the GRAD test is approximately equivalent to an ACT score of 20. According to MN Office of Higher Ed, 25% of students accepted to MN 4-year colleges had an ACT math score of 18 or lower (e.g., Bemidji, St. Cloud, Moorhead) Using ACT math score of 18 as 4-year college eligible, it was determined that approximately 15% of college eligible students would not pass the GRAD test the first time.

9 Results Continued Of those students who re-took the GRAD Math tests in 12 th grade, 25% passed the MCAII Math test with 3 re-testing tries. This would still leave about 45 families where the 12 th grade student had an ACT high enough to be eligible for acceptance in a four year college but would be denied a diploma based on the Math GRAD test. Details follow:

10 Equal Percentile Linking The correlation between MCAII Math and the ACT Math test scores is high:.856

11 Bloomington Students who took MCAII Math and ACT Math in 11 th Grade Mean =23 Mean = 1153

12 Equal Percentile Linking 1145 = 20 ACT Math 1150 = 22 ACT Math

13 Classification Accuracy in Predicting 4yr College Readiness 15% of College Eligible Students below 1145 on Math MCA

14 Selected MN Colleges where 25% of Accepted Students have ACT Math Scores of 18 or lower Saint Mary s U of M St. Cloud State University Minnesota State University Moorhead Bemidji State University University of MN Crookston

15 Rationale for 25 th Percentile of ACT as college eligible If the independent probability of getting into one of these schools with an ACT of 18 =.25, then the probability of getting accepted into one of these schools is 1-(.75) 5 = approximately ¾.

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17 2011 Bloomington Grad Retests

18 Implications At the beginning of the year, there were 277 Bloomington students who have yet to pass the Math Grad test. If, as predicted, 25% of these students eventually pass the math grad, that will leave about 207 students yet to pass. If these students were not allowed to graduate, Bloomington graduation rate would likely decline by 15-20%.

19 NWEA Reading RIT Score First Draft of Pathways to Graduate: Grades 2-7 On Course to Graduate* and 4-year College based on CALT Spring Math scale scores linked to ACT Composite Score ACT = 29 ACT = ACT = *On-Course to Graduate (MCA 11th grade =1145) Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade On Course 4yr College On-course U of M MCA II Proficiency (dotted line) On-course Carleton *Based on reverting to high stakes math Grad tests if the current law sunsets