1 MARCH 2006 Monthly Analysis of Gold Stocks and Precious Metals Trends Gold: Swiftly Precious in 2006 By Roger Wiegand Trader Tracks Gold s freight train of positives is running over the sellers. Technically, gold wants to sell but supporting reasons simply will not allow it. In this time of purported correction and profittaking there are few sellers or buyers. Both seem to be standing around with their hands in their pockets like little kids, looking nervous unable to choose. Cycles and seasons say look out below but energy, politics and radical Islam conspire to prop gold s prices, instilling uncertainty and fear subduing the profit takers. Nobody wants to miss the next rally as progressively weaker thoughts of weaker gold markets persist. On the other hand traders think the correction has some time to run and worry about buying into a selling market. What should gold traders and investors be doing? After excellent fundamentals, high priorities for gold rallies are energy, politicians, and terror freaks. This President s Day, George Bush is out stumping for energy policy and conservation. Since Nigerian oil pirates have effectively shut down nearly 500,000 daily barrels of high Continued on page 4 Gold Investments Haven t Lost Their Sheen By Andrew Leckey Gold has set hearts pumping in Priced above $565 an ounce, it is more than $100 higher than a year ago. The precious metal has hit a 25-year high, and some experts predict $600 an ounce sometime this year. Meanwhile, gold-oriented mutual funds gained 48 percent in the past 12 months. Their five-year annualized return of 32 percent is the highest of any fund category tracked by Lipper Inc. Accompanying this advance has been a consolidation of goldmining companies, including Barrick Gold Corp. taking control of fellow Canadian company Placer Dome Inc. to become the world s biggest gold producer. The adrenaline rush must be tempered by this caveat for longterm investors: Gold had a dramatic run-up beginning in the early 1970s that ended in 1980 when it was above $830 an ounce. It then went into a slide that bottomed in 2001 at just over $250 an ounce. That s why most investment experts believe evervolatile gold should never be more than 5 percent to 10 percent of an individual s portfolio and many distrust it completely. As in the fable of the blind men touching different parts of an elephant and trying to describe it, it is often difficult to fathom what is behind gold s movement. The run-up in gold has been driven by pension funds, institutions and funds of funds that see gold as an alternative investment that can protect against general market downturns, said Joe Foster, portfolio manager for Van Eck International Investors Gold Fund A in New York, which has a fiveyear annualized return of 37 percent. I m not saying we re going to have another market downturn or tech bust, but in the event we do, gold does provide a good hedge. Despite near-term potential for correction, Foster sees gold reaching $600 an ounce this year. The slow slide of the U.S. dollar caused the slow rise of gold, said John Doody, editor of the Gold Stock Analyst newsletter in Ft. Lauderdale. Investors have been seeking other havens to avoid risks of the various economies, and gold has been the ultimate currency in man s history. Continued on page 2
2 Page 2 Gold Investments Haven t Lost Their Sheen Continued from page 1 IN PRINT & ONLINE A POWERFUL COMBINATION The Bull & Bear Financial Report has developed a cost-effective Investor Relations strategy for publicly traded companies through innovative print & online programs. Print Targeted Internet Exposure E-Newsletters For More Information, Call BULL Doody s target for gold of $450 an ounce in 2004 was reached, his target of $500 in 2005 was reached, and he recently raised his target to $600 for Other factors may be contributing to the rise in gold. The momentum toward gold started with the uncertainty of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, said Parvathy Krishnan, equities analyst for Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. It continued on with rumors that central banks in India and China would be buying gold, and a frenzy in Japan that followed. The price of gold is less volatile than that of goldmining stocks. A convenient way to invest in gold is the exchangetraded fund streettracks Gold Shares on the New York Stock Exchange, Doody said. Each share trades at the price of one-tenth of an ounce of gold bullion. Introduced in November, it is up 9 percent this year. Gold coins such as the American Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf or South African Krugerrands, as well as small gold bars from dealers, are other popular investment vehicles. Among gold s detractors is Mark Balasa, a certified financial planner with Balasa Dinverno & Foltz financial advisors of Itasca, Ill. Neither gold coins nor bullion offer dividends and you must store them, said Balasa, who deems Treasuries or bonds as less exciting but more reliable hedges. I consider gold a miserable long-term investment. While the total value of stocks of gold-mining companies is a relatively small $100 billion, the group includes noteworthy investments. Barrick Gold, a large, stable company, isn t earning its cost of capital. But it has a disciplined approach to exploration and development, plus an admirable list of projects for significant future growth. Doody recommends it and Krishnan considers it well worth watching. Goldcorp Inc., a large producer with low extraction costs from Red Lake Mine in Ontario, Canada, has healthy cash flow and higher return on invested capital than its competitors. Doody recommends it, and Krishnan agrees it s noteworthy. Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. benefits from its flagship Grasberg mine in Indonesia that has the world s single largest gold reserve and secondlargest copper reserve. Excellent profit margins are why Krishnan said it s worth consideration. Royal Gold Inc., a cross between a bank and a gold company, holds gold royalties. It can boast exposure to gold price movements, insulation from mining costs and superb returns, which is why Krishnan said to monitor it. Foster has favorites among well-managed smaller companies carrying some risk: Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., which produces gold, silver, copper and zinc from LaRonde Mine in Canada, has a history of losses but several exploration projects under way to expand its operations. Randgold Resources Ltd., a gold exploration and mining company with properties in sub-saharan Africa, has as its main asset a stake in the Morila Ltd. gold mine in Mali. It has additional projects in other African nations. Meridian Gold Inc., a gold and silver producer whose low-cost production comes from El Penon Mine in Chile, made two discoveries within that region in It has no debt. Editor s Note: Andrew Leckey is a regular contributor to The Bull & Bear Financial Report print version.
3 By Kenneth Coleman Investment Tracker Until recently, the world s central banks attempted to manage the price of gold. Over the past several months, the Chinese central bank the Bank of China expressed its concern with the increase in the amount of dollars it was accumulating in Chinese foreign account reserves. The Chinese let it be known that their economy has become dependent on the dollar. China is terrified of a potential shrink in dollar value. As a pre-emptive strike, the Bank of China claimed it would slow dollar accumulation and start buying gold. The price of gold went through the roof as word of this news spread. Almost three-and-a-half years ago, central banks of the Group of Seven Nations (G7 the major industrial nations) established a new monetary system, a dual-reserve currency monetary system. G7 nations sold gold reserves into gold market rallies to allow the euro to gain confidence of prospective users. This action encouraged skittish buyers concerned about currency value to move to a stronger paper currency rather than to gold. In recent months, gold has moved up with diminishing overhead resistance. It seems G7 no longer supports its dual-reserve currency monetary system with gold sales. If this proves to be true, why then did G7 abandon what appears to be a longerterm monetary policy? China-Centric: America s Dependence on Cheap Imports The recent dollar rally was in part a reaction to the corporate dollar repatriation tax break, and surmounting pressures on dollar value caused by excessive Congressional spending and lowered tax rates. As the dollar weakens, China (which is estimated to have $800 billion in foreign dollar reserves) will suffer a huge loss in the value of those reserves. Selling dollar reserves would prove counter productive. Dollar sales would expedite the downward pressure on dollar value and would cause China to lose a huge share of its export sales (goods shipped to the U.S.) because it would not take more dollars to buy Chinese products, allowing domestic counterparts a competitive edge. China, vigilant over the U.S./China relationship dynamic, will buy gold (rather than sell dollars) in an attempt to thwart damage cause by U.S. government action. China will still be mandated to sanitize its huge trade surplus against domestic inflation (another reason why only recently the Chinese government is allowing its citizens to own gold). A higher gold price impels buyers, particularly Page 3 Why are the world s central banks allowing gold to trade with global immunity? domestic ones, to buy gold with excess currency, further stemming China s inflation rate increase. Moreover, it allows China to slow the purchase of dollars (a strategy used to sanitize its trade surplus). Therefore, Congress cannot afford to place a 27.5 percent tariff on Chinese imports. Although China presents a capitalist image, its government is still a totalitarian regime. Domineering governments who exercise power authority through fearful and aggressive competition are likely to strike back at those who threaten their stability (i.e., the U.S.). China was recently named one of the top ten despotic nations. Like a snake when provoked, China could strike against the U.S. by selling a considerable amount of its dollar reserves. Consequently, longer term U.S. interest rates will more likely move higher. And if China decided to poison the U.S. economy, it could sell enough dollars to push U.S. interest rates high enough to send the economy into a recession. However, this would be counterproductive for China because the Chinese would lose between 30 and 40 percent of their export market. What Can America Do? The investment winners in this scenario are the euro, Swiss franc, gold, and gold mining shares. U.S. dependence on China to support its excess debt will pressure our nation in two ways: first, the Fed will be forced to facilitate a lower dollar value in order to slow China s surplus growth, and second, the U.S. will have to find ways to encourage China to buy gold and euros (rather than gold and dollars). China purchasing gold with euros or yen rather than dollars will help buoy dollar value. This dollar support will benefit China in that it will allow it to maintain a greater share of the U.S. market. The U.S. strategy to sell gold, in order to discourage investor buying, appears to be void of any benefit to central banks. In fact, the opposite appears to be taking place investors are purchasing gold at an incredible rate with little to no opposition from central banks. Therefore, I recommend buying gold mining shares, as well as gold coins. Let us not forget silver. Silver is poor man s gold and will move up at a rate proportional to that of gold. Editor s Note: Kenneth Coleman is editor of Kenneth Coleman s Investment Tracker, 4805 Courageous Lane, Carlsbad, CA 92008, 1 year, 12 issues, $139. The Investment Tracker specializes in Domestic and Global Money Flow Analysis. Mr. Coleman brings to market analysis a unique perspective. Experience has taught him what drives stocks, bond and commodity markets, thus the economy. It s money. For a Special Subscription Offer visit
4 Page 4 Gold: Swiftly Precious in 2006 Continued from page 1 quality crude oil with their mischief, you might not wonder why Bush is doing this now. In our view, Bush has some other extremely serious Middle Eastern problems coming to flash points and they are presently unsolvable. Domestically things are quite mediocre at best. On television today, supposedly making a happy speech to a non-threatening corporate crowd, Bush seemed strident and visibly nervous. For a good ol boy this is out of character for him. We sense something is very wrong. We think he is terrified of an outrageous oil price spike about to drive a stake through the heart of his economic recovery and currently very fragile second term presidency. A major oil spike and gold rally will not help his political friends in this fall s coming election either. And for politicians, getting votes and getting elected is all that matters. Energy and gold prices often follow each other and in 2006 this rule has proven to be consistent. In other years, oil rallied and peaked into mid-april while gold had a modest rally the last week of March. Seasonal gold charts show us gold sells down to range bound prices from late February through most of August. However, in these times of maladjusted markets, timing is suspect at best. We think this year is different as more of the Middle East rapidly goes sour. The wrong people won the Palestinian election, Syria is killing internal and Lebanese enemies, Turkey s Muslims are misbehaving, Egypt took an unpopular USA position, the Iraq war grinds on out of control, fighting continues in Afghanistan, and worst of all Iran is moving into the nuclear club while Israel warms up its retaliatory missiles. Making it worse, Putin antagonized Europe temporarily cutting off their natural gas and is pretending to be an Iranian mediator but secretly chuckling and doing nothing while Bush squirms. Putin has quickly reverted to his old KGB ways and is effectively nationalizing (stealing) the entire Russian energy industry and is not allowing any new bidding on precious metals leases by western mining companies. What happens to existing mining operations has not yet been addressed. Country geopolitical risks are popping up all over the globe and gold investors should be very careful and aware of these potential threats to gold miners. A formidable cabal of USA enemies are politically ganging up while signing new and significant energy contracts not only advantageous to themselves but deliberately disadvantageous to the United States. Further reinforcing this negative effect will be the repricing of oil sales in Euros, other non-usa currencies or direct barter trading of armaments, technical support and industrial goods for oil. Iran s new leader has threatened to rally the entire Muslim world against western nations including the USA and Israel if his nuclear installations are attacked. What most are not watching is the daily violence in Pakistan where its leader has survived two assassination attempts. Western governments are holding their breath on this one. If the Pakistan leader is killed, this government and all of its ready-to-go missiles and nuclear arsenal would be in the hands of radicals. They would be passing around nuke-tipped missiles like candy to every Middle Eastern nut case who wanted one and had the money. This is way beyond Iran who is in the very early stages of building something nasty that can fly against Israel. We do not need a large oil curtailment to drive gold prices, only the impression of such a situation. Forthcoming gold seasonal selling in typical range bound patterns might be obviated by energy, political problems or both. Gold mine production has been down the last four years and exploration budgets have shot up the last three. Focusing on the best production and reserve locations in Canada and the USA, Nevada and Alaska have 19 major known deposits. Fifteen of those projects have over three million ounces and five projects have over five million ounces. Fundamentally, all annual production continues to slip, while physical and gold trading fund demands are rising. Jewelry fabrication for 2006 is forecast at 3312 tons and production is expected - 5.6% lower providing 3,997 tons of supply. Some time ago we forecast 2006 gold demand at 4250 tons, approximately 250 tons short of estimated needs. All of the Asian nations seemingly without exception are promoting the purchase of gold. Indian jewelry buyers slowed down their gold purchases during the last quarter of 2005 due to higher prices. Now that gold has topped and settled back toward $550, those gold buyers are ready to load the boat when a price near $500 gold is reached. This is the best they shall get in this long rally and they know it. Understand India consumes 25% of global gold production and they need the product to keep feeding their jewelry machine. Additionally, gold fabricators are expanding in Dubai to produce jewelry for sale in the Indian markets. The jewelry gold buying in Mumbai is seemingly insatiable. Next, we have the new Dubai gold exchange announcing they traded 1,000 gold contracts today. Three new members have signed-up to trade and we should never under estimate the buying power of this group. We suspect if a foolish central bank put tons of gold bullion on the auction block, somebody in Dubai would step up and write a check with no problem. We think at this juncture these rich oil sellers would rather have the gold bullion than be holding U.S Dollars diminishing in value. Engineering News reported , that The World Gold Council s GFMS report update said gold demand hit a record of $53.6 billion in 2005 with a 26% rise in investment tonnage demand. Jewelry demand was overall, 14% higher in spite of those higher prices we just discussed. What impresses us very much is the institutional demand which means the big boys and the big money are coming into the gold game. Further, it was impressive that this forth quarter demand both absorbed a 10% year on year increase in supply and a
5 Page 5 12% price increase. Higher prices are not going to slow gold demand but rather increase it. Recently, in the USA, the gold and commodity funds took the lion s share of contract positions while physical sales were down. Thirteen commodity contracts are now collectively up to $100 billion from $25 billion in Of the seven existing ETF gold funds approved, five are currently trading. Central banks are slowing on their international bank gold sales agreement and seem to have gotten off the notion of being so anti-gold. While we do not trust their numbers, central banks claim they hold 43% of the above ground gold (stored bar bullion) with the USA having 26% and the IMF 10%. The balance is being held by others. Anti-gold forces are still very busy in collusion with central banks to suppress gold s price in efforts to continue propping sick stock markets and fiat currencies. They are not only losing in these efforts but their dramatically huge short positions are getting worse by the day. One of the largest gold hedgers in the world is in jeopardy of bankruptcy if gold hits $850 according to one analyst. We cannot forecast a BK but we do forecast gold at $850 for fall, Hedging was on the wane but lately the big companies continue to de-hedge while some smaller ones are installing new hedges per lender mandates. Japan was a large physical buyer until recently when a weaker Yen curtailed some purchases. They sell gold in 7,000 Japanese 7-11 convenience stores. We showed dollar-gold comparative charts recently which graphically demonstrate gold and the dollar have decoupled. What has not decoupled but increased in velocity in our view is the oil fear premium coupled with gold. In recent days energy supplies of crude and refined products have increased in storage. This new supply with a quieter Middle East (for a few days) cut oil from $69 to $61. This week expectations are for higher crude oil. Gold may very well run right along with it, ignoring its cyclic correction. Gold bullion and crude oil cash values almost instantly revalue their underlying futures commodity product and their related stocks. This is why traders and investors should focus on weekly and monthly charts for directional guidance not trading entries. The shorter term charts including tick, 30 and 60 minute and daily charts do the shorter term work at entry time, not evaluation time. We suggest gold buyers are nearing a point when the junior gold stocks will have seasonally bottomed and it s almost time to buy once again. If you own them now and want to exit, wait until fall. Senior gold stock buyers should wait for a better price. Senior gold stock option buyers are nearing a lower price where they can enter positions for fall 2006, winter 2007, and identical seasons for For this week, we suggest waiting on the buying to determine if gold prices slide from $550 to 540, 526 and possibly 507. In summary, gold can only go higher in price, ever faster. Technically, gold has moved into its second and largely more volatile growth sector with our forecast of $850 by late fall seemingly assured. Other major gold driving forces are at work with a soon to arrive severe stock market decline, followed by the fall 2006 selling in bonds and our dollar. Imposition of these technical weaknesses with geopolitical trouble onto advancing gold markets can only produce higher gold prices a whole lot faster. We expect some market fear when stocks cave-in this spring. Will these losers go to gold? We think they will. In addition, the institutions with their long only buy positions have great power to lift gold prices. They are struggling for client returns and understand gold will provide them. The first leg of gold s rally was 2001 through the last fall. Now, gold has broken upper resistance moving almost vertical in price. This usually signals a top and subsequent selling, some of which we have seen. As we move toward March and a forecast gold price of $507 support, we wonder if other events will either extend the current softness sideways followed by strongly advancing prices or, will the $507 number appear right on schedule in Mid-March or the end of July. Seasonal gold charts show a double bottom in late July and late August. Last year, however, gold bottomed on June 1. This is fully 60 days early compared with 15 and 30 year seasonal chart dates. Should gold move another 60 days backwards from last year s June 1, the newest gold rally would be underway April 1, Traders and investors with far out long option positions for fall 2006, and into are not only safe but are buying into a lower price today. Junior gold and silver stock holders who have not exited for any reason this year should hold until fall for exits if at all possible. We are looking for a minimum 35% gold price advance from this spring-summer s basing bottom to a Thanksgiving top in Watching little market nuances and movements among gold funds, gold stocks and far out futures can provide clues to forthcoming support and resistance for gold. An inflation adjusted gold price today would not be $550 but $ Adjusting prices 35% beyond the $1950, it is easy to see a $2650- $2950 price range top we forecast two years ago. While forecasting three years forward is generally not a good idea, we are expecting a high for gold of $2960 with a later adjusted, correction-settled price of $1250 per ounce. Inflation is insidious and has eroded a great deal of gold s true value relative to the $ rally top. Understanding these numbers and the basis for their reference, it is no surprise gold has a very long and positive trail ahead. The average of commodity bull markets is years. Since the current one began in say 2000, we have possibly ten more years of bullish gold and other commodities moving through an inflationary and volatile period of time. With each year we advance, gold prices can only go higher faster. Editor s Note: Roger Wiegand is the editor and publisher of Trader Tracks, an electronic newsletter, which concentrates on options, futures, precious metals, and stocks, In addition, Mr. Wiegand writes a weekly column, Rog s Corner, for J. Taylor s Gold and Technology Stocks Newsletter. 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6 Page 6 GSN: INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER ADVISORS MONEY SHOW DIGEST, published weekly by InterShow, 1258 N. Palm Ave., Sarasota, FL Gold Stock Picks and Insights From America s most respected advisors Steven Halpern, editor of the Money Show Digest, offers resource stock picks and insights from top investment experts that host workshops at the Money Show Conferences. Golden Days for Junior Miners When it comes to junior precious metals miners, few advisors are as experienced and knowledgeable as Adrian Day, President, Adrian Day Asset Management, Editor, Adrian Day s Global Analyst, 900 Bestgate Rd., Ste. 405, P.O. Box 6643, Annapolis, MD 21401, Here, the editor of The Global Analyst looks at both Canada and South Africa for the best opportunities in the global junior mining sector. Given the overextended nature of the market and the probability of a pullback, this is not a good time to be chasing prices. We see the downside in gold is to the low $530s. As such, it s still too soon to buy aggressively, and any buying should be selective. Put a toe in the water, but focus on companies that have some defensive characteristics (strong balance sheet, low cash costs, or low-risk business model). However, given the long-term outlook, one should not be too clever in trying to trade, particularly in solid, longerterm core holdings. Here are seven factors to consider regarding your gold holdings. 1. Gold is in a long-term uptrend, and we have only recently entered the second major leg of this bull market. The global monetary situation (think rising inflation and a lower dollar) and geopolitical situation have certainly not improved of late. 2. This second leg up is more firmly based than the rise in gold from early 2001, when gold was largely the anti-dollar. Now gold is moving up in all currencies; and there has been a fundamental change in sentiment where negative news (for gold) is largely ignored. 3. Gold remains fundamentally undervalued, relative to its long-term real (inflation-adjusted) price; to the money supply; to stocks; to oil on any number of comparisons. 4. Notwithstanding this, gold is short-term overextended; the recent rally has been too far too fast. A short-term correction should not come as a shock. 5. Any correction will likely be relatively shallow and short-lived, given the strong physical buying from several markets (especially India and the Middle East), where buyers have quickly adjusted to higher prices. 6. Although a correction is to be expected, we don t know when, whether gold will fall $25 from here, now, or $25 from $600 next month. 7. Despite the new highs in gold producers, they are still, as a group, selling right around long-term average valuation measures. They are not particularly expensive, especially on an asset basis. In light of these factors, I would avoid the temptation to sell a quality stock now aiming to buy back at a lower price. There has been a sea change in the market, and it is important to think like a longterm investor not a trader. Thus for now, we would note, there are not many great buys on our list at present, but some solid ones for long-term investors. Moreover, there are several that we would buy on any weakness. We have seen advances on many fronts for International Royalty Corp. (CA:IRC Toronto). The Canadian company is not a pure gold firm, but has moved up in price recently both with the market and internal developments. Recently, there have been positive developments at two exploration projects on which International Royalty owns royalties, as well as additional micro-diamonds found on the Stornaway/BHP venture in Nunavit. As the gold and resource bull market develops, we should expect more positive developments such as this on properties over which IRC holds royalties. In the meantime, Inco s Voisy s Bay nickel mine in Newfoundland should pay its first royalty check to IRC this quarter. We are very positive on the company s prospects, and do not believe it is particularly expensive. We consider this among the best buys for those underweight in gold. Vista Gold (ASE VGZ), which is involved in mining operations from Canada to South America, has moved up in recent months along with gold. Higher gold prices validate Vista s model at its Hycroft, Nevada, project. Using $450 gold, a $25 million capital investment shows an internal rate of return of 29.5%. At today s $550, however, a lower initial capital investment has an internal rate of return of almost 70%. Hycroft is a vivid illustration of the strength of the Vista model. With higher gold prices, many of its properties are now viable, with tremendous leverage. An updated study on its Paredones Amarillos project in Mexico, for example, which at $400 gold had a return of only 4%, now has an estimated return of 24%. This shows the benefit of keeping the ounces in the ground pending higher prices. Vista is fundamentally undervalued and is one of our stronger long-term holdings, with plenty of leverage to higher prices. Of the resource stocks on our list, best buy now is Vista Gold. For those underweight the sector who do not own the stock, anywhere in the mid to low $4.70s is a great price to buy. Firing on multiple cylinders, Altius Minerals (CA:ALS Toronto) is not a pure gold company, and,
7 Page 7 GSN: INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER ADVISORS in fact, the stock has seen a significant correction from an early January run-up, retreating from a high of $5.20 to the current level, where it is a buy again. Altius is one of our favorite long-term holdings among the juniors. It is currently advancing several projects, including its gold and uranium properties. In addition, Altius has been short listed by the Newfoundland government for its innovative royalty financing proposal on the province s Lower Churchill hydroelectric project. And its royalty on Voisey s Bay will start generating revenue this quarter. In all, Altius has multiple prospective projects, in all of which it is taking innovative approaches which maintain its balance sheet. Buy on any weakness. Gold Fields (NYSE GFI) has clearly demonstrated the leverage that the South Africans have to a higher gold price and lower rand currency. Its latest quarterly profit was up sixfold, and particularly importantly, its production from South African mines was up with costs under control. Gold Fields continues its approach of diversifying outside of its home base, with just over half of its profit now outside South Africa. In particular, it has enhanced its beach head in Latin America. In recent months, it has made the go-ahead decision to develop a mine in Peru, which will produce about 2.3 million ounces over 15 years. And it has purchased Bolivar Gold whose project in Venezuela has exploration upside. We expect to see additional acquisitions in this region ahead. Though we like Gold Fields, with the best South African assets, a strong balance sheet, technically strong management, and growth, we would wait for better opportunities to buy. South Africa: A Gold Mine Jocelynn Drake, Financial Analyst, Schaeffer s Investment Research, Inc., 5151 Pfeiffer RD., Ste. 250, Cincinnati, OH 45242, an analyst with Schaeffer s Investment Research, combines fundamental, technical, and sentiment-based factors in determining her top-rated stocks. Here, she applies that trio of metrics to uncover a potential opportunity in South African gold. South Africa-based AngloGold Ashanti Limited (NYSE AU), produces about seven million ounces of gold annually from its open-pit and underground mines in Africa, Australia, and the Americas, notes Jocelynn Drake, analyst with Schaeffer s Investment Research. In all, the company has more than 20 mines in more than ten countries. With the price of gold rising more than 18% last year, the stock has already won my attention. The mining sector continues to be hot, as not only gold, but silver, copper, and platinum linger near multi-year highs. With the recent sharp pullback in the yellow metal, AU is currently consolidating into support at its ascending ten-week and 20-week moving averages. The shares also continue to outstrip their peers. Investors have shrugged off this display of impressive technical strength and continue betting against the shares. Options players have loaded up on bearish bets, with nearly 3,800 puts accumulated at the equity s February 55 strike. This buildup of pessimistic positions could serve as a layer of optionsrelated support against any pullback in the shares. Short sellers have also set their sights on the shares. In January, the number of AU shares sold short jumped by 11% to 3.8 million. At the equity s average daily trading volume, it would take more than four days to buy back these bearish bets. An unwinding of these positions could supply ample fuel for a sharp rally higher in the security. Wall Street hasn t been particularly enthusiastic about the shares either. According to Zacks, all five of the brokerage firms following the company rate it a hold or worse. Not only does this leave room for upgrades, but any fresh coverage of the security could also provide the stock with a nice boost. Gold: True Wealth Gold is true wealth; it is the world s oldest currency and it rises as people lose faith in paper currencies, notes the Pamela & Mary Anne Aden, Co-Editors, The Aden Forecast, Co-Directors, Aden Research, P.O. Box , Centro Colon, San Jose, Costa Rica, Central America, experts in demystifying the relationships between resources, currencies, stocks, and bonds. Gold tops their 2006 list. Gold has been rising for nearly five years in a major bull market and should continue to shine in During that time it has outperformed both the stock and bond markets, rising on average 20% per year. For a number of fundamental and technical reasons, we believe gold will continue rising in 2006, again outperforming stocks. China s growing global and economic strength, and the major power shift that s slowly taking place. This alone suggests that the government will have to keep printing money to pay for all these expenses. This money is created out of thin air and the more money that s created, the more the money supply grows, and the more worthless that money becomes. This is the direct cause of inflation and it means that over time, your savings and income will continue to deteriorate. The debt and deficits are the largest in world history and there s no sign this mega debt trend is going to end soon, or that it can, due to the war on terror, aging baby boomers and their growing demands on future government spending. The economy could sink into deflation due to the debt load. As a result, the Federal Reserve will take the better option, chosen by governments throughout
8 Page 8 GOLD STOCK NEWS FEATURED COMPANY Minco Mining & Metals Advancing High-Grade Gold, Silver, Base Metals Projects in China Spin-Off of World-Class Silver Project Leverages Soaring Silver Prices Minco Mining & Metals Corporation (TSX: MMM; AMEX: MMK), a long-term player in the China mining sector, is poised to break out as a leading gold producer in several of the most prolific regions of the country and recently rewarded shareholders with the spin off of its subsidiary, Minco Silver Corporation (TSX: MSV), into an independently traded company blessed with a world-class silver property and a world-class partner, Silver Standard Resources. Since 1994 when it became one of the first Canadian-based resource companies operating in China, Minco Mining & Metals assembled an impressive portfolio of projects that focus primarily on gold and silver, but also include base metals deposits that hold significant promise. We have been in China for 12 years. There are not a lot of companies that can say that, says Minco Vice President, Corporate Development Robert Tyson. He credits Minco President Ken Z. Cai s broad knowledge of and expertise in China for Minco s success. Dr. Cai is a former Chinese national who worked in the country s Ministry of Land and Resources evaluating large mining opportunities, later collaborating with Teck Cominco (which still holds a stake in Minco) in identifying prime exploration properties, and subsequently forming a company rivaled by few in terms of its portfolio scope and prospects in this mineralrich country. Minco has evaluated more than 400 mining opportunities to develop a portfolio of more than 20 properties including the advanced Changkeng Gold Project, the Yangshan gold field, the world-class Fuwan Silver Project now controlled by Minco Silver, Minco is actively exploring more than 20 high-grade gold, silver and base metals properties in China. and the base metals White Silver Mountain Project. The company has established key joint venture partnerships in the provinces of Hebei, Xinjian, Gansu, Guangdong and Inner Mongolia. Today, Minco Mining & Metals has a combined exploration potential of 3.9 million ounces of gold at its Changkeng and Anba deposits alone, as well as significant potential at its White Silver Mountain base metals project and myriad of other gold properties. Minco s mission is to become China s leading producer of precious and base metals, says Tyson. Flagship Changkeng Gold Project Near Pre-Feasibility Minco s primary focus in 2006 is to bring its Changkeng Gold Project through pre-feasibility. The near-surface, high-grade gold deposit located in southern China is expected to be the first of the company s many high-grade projects to reach production. Gold was first discovered in the area in early 1990 and in 1993 was estimated to have the potential for 3.43 million tonnes grading at 7.9 g/t gold. Previous exploration also indicates the presence of substantial silver and other minerals. The project is easily accessible to water, power and transportation. Minco is planning an aggressive exploration program to further delineate mineralization, expand the resource base, upgrade inferred resource estimates and perform metallurgical testing. The present inferred resource of 879,000 ounces of gold will be upgraded to measured and indicated
9 Page 9 GOLD STOCK NEWS FEATURED COMPANY categories by 10,000 meters of infill drilling. Geotechnical, environmental and mining plant studies will be completed prior to a pre-feasibility study. A full feasibility study is expected to be completed in 2007 with small-scale production beginning by mid Major Exploration Planned for Gold, Base Metal Projects The Yangshan Gold Project is Minco s prime exploration focus for the coming year. The company is planning ground survey work on its multiple gold properties at Yangshan, located on the western end of the Qinling Gold Belt, China s second-largest gold producing region. The Chinese government estimates the region hosts over 16 million ounces of gold. Minco s gold properties include several very strong gold anomalies identical in geology, structure, alteration and mineralization to the nearby Anba Gold Project, considered one of the larger gold discoveries in China in recent years. Minco holds a net 36 percent position in the Anba, which has an inferred resource of 2.9 million oz. gold. The BYC Gold Project in Inner Mongolia is funded through a joint venture with New Cantech Ventures. Assays pending on drill results from a goldbearing shear zone will determine targets for the 2006 drill program. The area has more than 100 gold showings and a major regional geochemical gold anomaly covering more than 100 sq. km. The White Silver Mountain Project is the prime asset of Minco s newly formed subsidiary, Minco Base Metals Ltd. The district contains three past producing mines and two currently producing mines. The high grade massive sulphide ore body include lead, zinc, copper and gold mineralization. The project, one of Minco s original assets, is estimated to contain up to 5 million tonnes a resource that could increase following a planned exploration program at the producing Xiaotieshan Mine. The program will include about 300 meters of underground drifting and 4,000 meters of drilling. Minco Silver s Fuwan Property Believed to be a World-Class Deposit Minco s shareholders are now well leveraged to the soaring silver market through the spin-off of its flagship silver asset, the world-class Fuwan Silver Property, to its former subsidiary Minco Silver. With the potential for million ounces of silver, Minco Silver s Fuwan Property is clearly in the world-class category. According to a recent NI compliant technical report, the inferred resource is 20.4 million tonnes grading at 181 g/t silver, 0.34 g/t gold, 0.20% lead and 0.65% zinc. The 57,000 acre property is located in Guangdong Province adjacent to Minco s Changkeng Gold Project. Silver mineralization extends for about 10 km along a northeast trend and is open to the south, southeast and southwest. The clear possibility of a major silver deposit at Fuwan triggered Minco s decision to spin off the project and its subsidiary, Minco Silver, into a separately traded company able to leverage the rising price of silver. Further evidence of the project s prospects is seen in Silver Standard s 20 percent stake in Minco Silver. We are very excited. This a big, high grade project that is truly world-class, said Tyson. The extension along strike is very large and certainly carries the possibility of a much larger resource. Investment Considerations As a pioneer among western mining companies in China, Minco Mining & Metals has leveraged its strong relationships with key Chinese mining organizations to acquire a huge asset portfolio managed by its wholly-owned Chinese subsidiary, Minco Mining (China) Corporation a step taken to enhance Minco s ability to acquire licenses, permits and new exploration properties. Minco has a solid and lengthy operating history in China, proven ability to raise substantial funding, and a highly skilled and proven management team. Minco President and CEO Ken Z. Cai provides incalculable expertise in Chinese culture, mining laws, and geology. He is particularly adept at
10 Page 10 GOLD STOCK NEWS FEATURED COMPANY Minco Mining & Metals holds an extensive portfolio of high-grade, advanced-stage gold, silver and base metals properties in China. Minco s 2006 focus is advancing its Changkeng Gold Project to pre-feasibility, upgrading the resource at its base metals White Silver Mountain Project, and developing drill targets at its large land package within the Yangshan Gold Belt. The company continues to evaluate new projects. nurturing strong relationships with both Chinese officials and international mining partners. Both Minco Mining & Metals and Minco Silver raised a combined total of C$17 million over the past year. The company has world-class partners in Silver Standard, which invested C$3.2 million toward the start-up of Minco Silver, and Teck Cominco, which invested early in Minco and currently holds a 5.6 percent position in Minco. Minco has clearly entered a significant new phase in its development. Bringing its Changkeng Gold Project to pre-feasibility this year, presages a move into the ranks of gold producers that could come as soon as mid The establishment of a base metals subsidiary presents an intriguing possibility of a second spin-off in the future. We are very adept at evaluating properties in China, says Tyson. As a result, Minco Mining s sky is bright blue. In five years, we expect to be a leading gold producing company in China. MINCO MINING & METALS CORP. TSX: MMM AMEX: MMK MINCO SILVER CORP. TSX: MSV Contact: Robert Tyson, Vice President, Corporate Development West Hastings Street Vancouver, BC V6E 2E9 Toll Free: Phone: Fax: & Shares Outstanding: 38.4 million Active Float: 24 million 52 Week Trading Range: U.S. Hi: $2.19 Low: $0.99 Hi: C$2.50 Low: C$1.55 Disclaimer: This material is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. It is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. References made to third parties are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate. Recipients should not regard it as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The opinions and recommendations are those of the writers and are not necessary endorsed by The Bull & Bear Financial Report. Any opinions expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and The Bull and Bear Financial Report is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. All information is correct at the time of publication, additional information may be available upon request. Minco Mining & Metals Corporation, GLR Resources, Inc., and Linux Gold Corp. paid The Bull & Bear Financial Report a fee for their investor awareness program. The directors and employees of The Bull & Bear Financial Report do not own any stock in the securities referred to in this report.
11 Page 11 GSN: INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER ADVISORS history in order to keep it all together, which is inflation. The Fed, however, is currently in a dilemma. It s been raising interest rates for the past two years and the yield curve has now inverted. This usually precedes a recession and in their latest report, the Fed signaled rate hikes are now likely near an end. If so, the Fed will have lost an important weapon in its fight against inflation and it could eventually be forced to take a come-what-may route, regardless of how high inflation goes. We believe this is what gold sees as it looks ahead and this combination of factors is the main reason why gold s been rising in a bull market since 2001, and why we ve been recommending it for four years now. This is the basis of gold s mega uptrend and why it ll likely continue to rise this year, probably again keeping its #1 position. If interest rates peak in the months ahead, it s going to remove the US dollar s main prop. This suggests the dollar will resume its long-term bear market decline. And if the dollar begins another leg down in the bear market, these trends could explode. This makes our top conservative stock pick a pair of exchange traded funds streettracks Gold Trust (NYSE GLD) and ishares Comex Gold (ASE IAU), which both track the price of gold. For more speculative positions, we suggest a package of gold shares including Newmont Mining (NYSE NEM), Royal Gold (Nasdaq RGLD) and GoldCorp (NYSE GG). All three of these stocks should also continue to do well in the year ahead as gold heads higher. Pape s Pair In line with his role as a leading authority on Canada, both top picks from Gordon Pape, Publisher, The Income Investor, Gordon Pape Enterprises Ltd., 372 Woodsworth Rd., Toronto, Ontario M2L 2T6, Canada, have a Canadian twist. His speculative favorite, Goldcorp, is based in British Columbia, while his conservative play, Kinder Morgan, has acquired a role in the Alberta tar sands. My aggressive pick for 2006 is Goldcorp (NYSE GG). Let s be clear from the start: the shares are not cheap. But we re not shopping in the bargain basement here. And there s good reason for investor interest. Goldcorp is the world s lowest-cost gold producer. Final 2005 numbers should show total production of more than 1.1 million ounces. To add to the attraction, in early December Goldcorp reported that it was sitting on $400 million in cash. It has no debt and has not hedged any forward sales, so it benefits fully from every upward move in the price of gold. While, that s reason enough to like the stock, this is not a company that s resting on its laurels. In late November, it announced it was acquiring 10% of Wolfden Resources, an exploration company in northern Ontario. In December, it announced a deal to buy Quebec-based Virginia Gold, which controls the Eleonore property in Northern Quebec, which is regarded as one of the most promising new discoveries in North America. Goldcorp is also paying about $1.5 billion to acquire several properties in such areas as Chile and the Dominican Republic. Goldcorp said in a statement that acquisitions will increase its 2006 production by about 50% to more than two million ounces and will add about 83% to reserves, taking them to about 23 million ounces. Average production expenses will also rise but Goldcorp says it will maintain its position as the lowest cost producer at about $150 an ounce. Very aggressive investors may buy at the current price. More cautious readers should watch for a pull-back and look to enter around $20. Our conservative pick for the year ahead is Kinder Morgan (NYSE KMI), a major player in the US pipeline sector, operating more than 35,000 miles of gas and products pipelines. It is also involved in natural gas retail distribution and, to a limited extent, in natural gas fired electrical generation. Its acquisition of Canada s Terasen (formerly British Columbia Gas) will place KMI in a position to be able to supply output from the Alberta oil sands to the US market, which is expected to dramatically increase its reliance on Canadian oil in the company years. In announcing the Terasen acquisition, KMI s chairman and CEO Richard Kinder indicated the company is prepared to invest heavily in expanding this capacity going forward. There is another potential bonus for shareholders in KMI s entry into Canada. The company is the leading supplier of carbon dioxide for use in oil recovery in the US. The gas is gaining favor as a way to increase yields from the Alberta oil sands and KMI will now be well positioned to grab a share of that business. This is a company with long-term growth potential. For fiscal 2006, earnings are expected to come in at $5 per share, which would represent an 18% increase. Analysts generally like the stock although they aren t expecting any big move in the near future, with a median target price of $100 according to Thomson/First Call. However, while we re waiting we are collecting a decent dividend of $3 a share for a yield of 3.2% based on the original recommended price and we could see that increase in Buy. The Bull & Bear Financial Report 3 FREE ISSUES
12 Page 12 GSN: INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER ADVISORS Gold and the Protection Team Harry Schultz, Editor, Harry Schultz Letter, P.O. Box 622, CH-1001 Lausanne, Switzerland, HSLetter.com, is internationally known for his noholds-barred approach to investment commentary. Here, he offers his market outlook, the prospects for gold, some favorite stocks, and the conspiracy theory known as the plunge protection team. My 2006 outlook suggests that US interest rates stop rising in the first half and then resume rising in the fourth quarter. Oil will go to new highs and the US dollar will resume its bear market in the second half. Gold shoots past $600 en route to $900. US stocks will rise in the first half and fall in the second half. Japan will be the best market performer in Worldwide markets will inch higher but hit a double top on their charts in the second half, and then probably decline. The rally is now three years old, which is older than average for bull markets. Emotions aside, not a lot has really happened to the gold price since mid-january. Gold rose to new multi-decade highs, then fell sharply. But the mood and perception of gold changed, as a result of breaking new high ground which caught the public s attention. Was the price drop caused by being overtouted in the media and by the gold market being overbought? Yes. But we also believe that the price drop was due in part to price fixers. To understand this, one must be aware of the so-called Plunge Protection Team, or PPT, which subsidizes the US stock market when it sags to a major chart support area. This is done to keep the market from breaking important support areas, lest weakened public confidence cause a crash. In the case of gold, the PPT influences the price of the metal. They know when a market is technically oversold or overbought. So they know when to place their bets. They also know when gold has risen to an overbought level, so they sell it short. They usually make money on this type of maneuvering. For example, after supporting the S&P at a time when they want to protect against a market decline, they can soon sell the stock index that they subsidized. Why? Because the market carries stocks up from where they bought S&P futures, since others pile in when they see the bulk buying. They also usually make money on their gold shorts, by buying back after substantial falls. The bottom line is that markets are now controlled by speculators, including hedge funds, at the margin. They ascertain how far gold (or any such market) can rise before they decide it s overbought and they sell it and short it. That action then carries on via momentum. That s how professional speculators and hedge funds make their living. In addition, the government along with the PPT prevents markets from having healthy adjustments, which correct inefficiencies. It s yet another reason why investors have to trade the markets today rather than holding and trusting markets to behave by rules of former times. Overall, we re in a major gold bull market, thanks to excessive bank and government credit & money creation, as well as government deficits. Paper (fiat) money is in a systemic decline; hard assets/metals are in the ascendancy. This correction in gold prices, in my opinion, will be of no importance except to allow the market to work off its oversold condition. Could it fall further? Markets can do what they like, but there s technical gold support at 540, 530, 500, 490, 480, and the ultimate support at 460. Further, there are people in the wings waiting to buy, along with bargain hunters who will try to secondguess the market. I think is the most likely low. For gold, $600 is our next target, then $900, on the way to $2,000. But you won t enjoy the ride via a buy & hold strategy. They will freak you out with their vicious mini crashes. Stop loss orders aren t the answer either. Preemptive profit taking is the way to win, which calls for constant selling and buying back. Our model portfolio currently holds a number of junior metals and mining related recommendations in Canada including: Endeavour Silver (CA: EDR Toronto), with a stop at 2.05; Energy Metals (CA: EMC Vancouver), with a stop on a one day close under 3.08; Greystar Resources (CA: GSL Toronto), with a stop at 5.98; UEX Corp. (CA: UEX Toronto), with a stop on a one day on a close under 3.48; Wealth Minerals (CA: WML Vancouver) with a stop at 1.26; and Western Prospector (CA: WNP Vancouver), with a stop at Outside of the mining sector, our top picks of the month feature one long and one short idea. On the long side, Fording Canadian Coal (NYSE FDG) is forming a possible symmetrical triangle pattern. Technically, this makes the stock a buy on a one-day close over We suggest a stop on a one-day close below On the short-side, we like First Financial Bancorp (Nasdaq FFBC), in the finance and savings & loan sector. The stock broke below oneyear head & shoulders top. Sell short at markets or if rallies to Set a stop at Among our other stock ideas, we like Openwave Systems (Nasdaq OPWV), which is involved in software and services for the telecom industry. The stock rose above a reverse head & shoulders base. Buy if it dips to and/or 19.50; stop on a oneday close below Standard Microsystems (Nasdaq SMSC) is involved in semiconductor manufacturing. The stock rose above a symmetrical triangle. Buy at market or on dips to Set a stop on a one-day close below Editor s Note: Steven Halpern, is editor of The Money Show Digest, published by InterShow. Each issue of The Money Show Digest offers a glimpse into the best advice from the nation s leading advisors that speak at The Money Shows held in various cities throughout the year. If you find this information valuable, then consider attending the following
13 Page 13 GSN: INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER ADVISORS Money Shows: The Las Vegas Money Show, May th ; The Washington, DC Money Show, July 20-22; The San Francisco Money Show, October th. For FREE registration call and mention Bull & Bear priority code or visit the web site at *************** Henning: THE STOCK MARKET CURMUDGEON GOLD: Shaping up like a panic Thomas Henning: The Bond Market has topped out and has been consolidating a downleg from 118 to 110. A close below 110 would confirm the next leg down to about par. When this occurs, cranking up interest rates, look for the implosion to start, lead by the housing and auto industries...for starters. The Gold Complex has kicked off and confirmed a cyclic bull market. The action is shaping up like an upside panic. Near term, an overdue correction is evolving. Let it. My favored wave tea leaf count very tentatively suggests that the 1 st wave of the juicy #3 primary has been completed, the present correction being the #2. If this count turns out to be right, as the old jazz classic goes, The best is yet to come, babe. At any rate, don t get cute and overtrade this move. Stay with the main upcycle. The Stock Market has been waving out a terminal count that has been detailed in my next article in Bull and Bear Financial Report. In short, the internals are putrid and failing, thus not confirming the February strength, which must be respected simply because it s there. However, until the Dow closes below 10,660, confirmed by the Transports below 4050, the bulls will be in charge of an internally weak market. *************** -MINUTEWOMAN 1040 First Ave., Ste. 305, New York, NY Web subscription, monthly, 1 year, $144. Asacha advancing TSG Vivian Lewis: Trans Siberian Gold plc (TSG.L) announced that, subject to financing arrangements, it will develop the Asacha gold mine in Kamchatka, Russian Far East. Following the appointment of Jonathan Best as CEO last November, TSG has undertaken an in-depth financial and technical review of both the Asacha and Veduga projects. The directors have agreed to move ahead as quickly as practicable with development at Asacha and, subject to completion of project financing, expect to start underground development in August, with plant construction starting in Sept. It is expected that plant commissioning will commence in December 2007 with first gold production in early Total capital and pre-production costs of the Asacha project are estimated at US$90 mn (including recoverable VAT of US$11 mn), of which $22 mn has already been spent, leaving US$68 mn to be funded through project finance and equity or an equitylinked instrument. Talks with Standard Bank Plc and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development on project financing are going on and Anglogold Ashanti Ltd., a 29.8% shareholder in TSG, has agreed to participate in this funding to maintain its shareholding. It is anticipated that project finance can be arranged by May and development of the Asacha mine can then begin in earnest. The project finance is subject to fulfilment of certain technical conditions and to receipts of certain regulatory approvals, permits, and an extension to the production condition in the Asacha license. Every effort will be made to complete all outstanding items to meet the May target. Work at Asacha has continued on engineering studies, site preparation, and completing construction of the access road, while discussions with banks and lending agencies on project finance have been held. The current mineral resource contains 534,493 oz of gold equivalent (in gold and silver credits) in the measured and indicated categories (~ 80%) and 131,653 oz in the inferred category (~20%) for a total of 666,146 oz (20.7 metric tonne) contained gold equivalent. There is potential to increase this resource as more work is done. Editor s Note: Minute Woman provides exclusive monthly tips and analysis on selected international investments. alerts keep you informed of newest briefs. *************** INTERINVEST REVIEW & OUTLOOK P.O. Box 51462, Boston, MA Monthly, 1 year, $125. Wait for a pullback Dr. Hans Black: It has been up, up and away with the price of gold, silver and platinum for quite a few weeks now, and judging by the number of calls we are getting about these phenomena, it is possibly time to think that a larger pullback may be possible. On a serious note, our telephone lines and s have been blazing with all sorts of new offerings for exploration companies needing funds to set up in order to return great riches in a short period of time. While the prospect of gold, we believe, is solidly positive over the next few years, we are decidedly worried about the near-term bullishness displayed by so many promoters. We do not believe this is the time to chase prices, but would rather wait for pullbacks in stocks, which we like over the longer term. Companies like Newmont, that have gone from $40 to $60 in under six months, deserve a break, as do the likes of Eldorado, Cambior and Southwestern Resources, which have all been great performers, and are favored over the longer term.
14 Page 14 GOLD STOCK NEWS FEATURED COMPANY GLR Resources Advancing to Feasibility Work at Box Gold Mine, Historic Goldfields Property Production target of 40,000 ounces of gold per year With gold in the early stages of a mega bull market, GLR Resources Inc. (TSX: GRS), an experienced Canadian exploration and mining company, is quickly advancing its Goldfields Project in northern Saskatchewan to production a prospect sure to entice investors given that the company s large Box gold deposit may be just the first of several that could establish a significant new gold district. It has certainly been a long haul, but persistence does pay off, says Bob Kasner, GLR s CEO, who met recently with financing groups during a European trip. Kasner says interest in the company s advanced Goldfields Project is high. GLR s Box Gold Mine, the largest deposit within its Goldfields Project, contains more than a halfmillion ounces of gold according to a recently updated resource estimate. The estimate is based on data from a 1995 feasibility study, as well as results from an additional 4,120 meters of diamond drilling completed during the past two years. But before making a final production decision, the 1995 feasibility study must be updated. GLR has retained Wardrop Engineering to do the work and expects a feasibility report by April. Awarding the Goldfields feasibility contract is a milestone in advancing the project, says Kasner. With a positive resource estimate, the high price of gold, and the advanced status of the Goldfields Project, we are certainly excited. With a bankable feasibility study in hand, financing discussions with European bankers will turn a lot more serious. If we quickly wrap up production financing we could be in production by late 2007, says Kasner. Meanwhile, GLR is not forgetting its other promising Canadian properties, where the company is exploring for high-grade zinc and gold, and base metals. Intriguingly, the company recently discovered several circular features that may be kimberlites. Exploration continues on these properties, but the company s focus on its premier Goldfields Project will be front and center for the coming year. Goldfields Resource May Be Tip of a Golden Iceberg Although GLR has other proven gold deposits and numerous gold showings throughout its 50,000 acre, 100%-owned Goldfields Property, the company s upcoming production decision will be focused solely on the Box deposit. The Box is actually a pastproducing underground mine, operated from by Cominco. The mine was closed when World War II and the discovery of uranium deposits elsewhere in the Uranium City Mining District shifted mining interest away from gold to uranium. GLR will operate the Box as an open pit mine, Visible veins on surface at Box Gold Mine within GLR's Goldfields property
15 Page 15 taking advantage of the gently rolling topography and a near-surface deposit. Much of the infrastructure needed for an operating mine is already in place, such as existing electrical transmission towers and a road network. A paved 4,000 foot airstrip is only a few miles away. The company also has an exploration office in nearby Uranium City, where operational and management activities can occur yearround. In anticipation of a favorable feasibility study, the company has already submitted environmental impact statements to regulatory authorities and has met with local communities to discuss the impact and GOLD STOCK NEWS FEATURED COMPANY economic opportunities associated with opening the Box Mine. Once the feasibility study is in hand the company will begin seeking to secure production financing. The company plans to utilize an environmentallyfriendly Gekko modular plant manufactured in Australia. The company will order the plant once the feasibility study is completed and financing is in place. Construction of the mill is expected to take about a year. Box-Athona Mine to Produce 40,000 Ounces of Gold Annually The Box deposit has a thickness of 40 to 45 meters and has a strike length of 700 meters, dipping at about 42. The deposit is open at depth, increasing its upside potential. The Box Mine is expected to produce some 40,000 ounces of gold per year over a 10 year period. Kasner says fine crushing of ore could result in a 97 percent gold recovery. Solid Precambrian rocks which are stable to 65 degree slopes provide excellent rock mechanics. With deposit outcrops through the pit, there is no overburden removal required. Within 2 km is the Athona deposit, which the company believes contains at least 200,000 ounces of gold based on the existing 1995 feasibility study. The proximity of a working mill at the Box mine eliminates the need to conduct any further feasibility studies at the Athona, according to Kasner. Processing Athona ore at the Box Mine could significantly extend the production life of the Goldfields Project. Then there are the numerous Typical Cross-Section of the Box Mine Deposit The orebody corresponds with the full extent of the Box Mine Granite colored in orange other gold targets already identified on the Goldfields property within two kilometers of the Box and Athona Gold deposits, further enhancing the prospect of a long-term mine operation will be very busy for GLR, as we ramp up exploration and mine development activities, says Kasner. Last year, the company flew a VTEM airborne geophysical survey of the entire Goldfields property. The survey identified three distinct anomalies the company believes are strongly indicative of significant gold, silver and uranium mineralization. Values of gold and silver may add considerably to the net worth of any uranium deposit discovered in the area, says Kasner. GLR Also Exploring for Base Metals GLR continues to explore its Stares/Calvert property in the Hemlo-Shebandowan Greenstone Belt of Ontario for high grade zinc, gold and silver mineralization, as well as advancing its Puiseaux- Orvillers property in Quebec and its Thunder Bay and Goldie projects in Ontario. The intriguing possibility of a potential kimberlite field was raised during a recent VTEM airborne survey of GLR s extensive land holdings in the Uranium City Mining District. The survey defined several dozen circular features coinciding with EM anomalies the company believes may be kimberlites. Given the size, shape and geophysical signatures of these circular features, GLR plans to conduct geochemical surveys to determine their significance and origin.
16 Page 16 GOLD STOCK NEWS FEATURED COMPANY Elements that are indicative of kimberlitic rocks (Cr, Co, Ni, Pd, HFSE, etc) are used to gain insight into the origin of certain geophysical anomalies. The planned geochemical surveys will assist in determining the potential of these circular features as being kimberlites. GLR is also testing its 13,000-acre, 100%-owned base metal property west of Thunder Bay, Ontario. During the past year, the company has conducted line cutting, ground geophysics, soil geochemistry and evaluated a VTEM airborne geophysical survey. GLR plans to further test the property with diamond drilling of three areas in a region known for in situ high-grade base metal mineralization (zinc, lead, silver and gold). We are in pursuit of an as yet undisclosed source of large, very high-grade glacial boulder debris which we continue to believe originated from our property, says Kasner. To date, the company has discovered some 20 boulders ranging in size from 400 pounds to 15 tons that have significant zinc and gold mineralization. Investment Considerations Over the past 26 years, GLR Resources has amassed an impressive record of discovery and operations. GLR is led President and CEO Bob Kasner and his highly experienced management team of technical and business professionals. The company has raised more than $35 million to finance its exploration and development projects and collaborated with mining industry leaders Inco, Homestake and Barrick. GLR has no debt and recently completed financings that bring the company s coffers to C$1.6- million. Once the feasibility numbers confirm the Goldfield Project s economic viability, the company expects to close rapidly on production financing. GLR has spent C$10 million to date on exploration Visible Gold in Rocks at the Box-Athona Mine of the Goldfields property. Based on GLR s estimates, the capital requirement is between C$25 and C$30 million, to bring the Box Gold Mine to actual production. This figure is relatively minimal in comparison to many other companies that are approaching similar production decisions. We feel the Goldfields Project looks very attractive for investors. We have a fairly large amount of gold in the ground and a low CAPEX, says GLR President Bob Kasner. At present gold prices, the 1995 operational cost estimate of $350 an ounce makes the project extremely feasible and profitable. With two known gold deposits and numerous gold showings, we feel we are really looking at a gold district. Resources Historical Reserves and Resources (1995 Feasibility Study) Box Gold Deposit Athona Gold Deposit GoldCut-off Tonnes Au Contained Tonnes Au Contained g/t (000) g/t Ounces (000) g/t Ounces Measured , ,000 22, ,000 Indicated , ,000 6, ,000 Reserves Proven & , ,800 3, ,900 Probable Note: Although the 1995 feasibility study was completed prior to the implementation of NI regulations, GLR believes this historical information is relevant and it is shown here for comparison with more recent resource estimates. GLR RESOURCES INC. TSX: GRS Contact: Robert J. Kasner, President Phone: Fax: Investor Relations: David Leng Phone: Website: Shares Outstanding: Approx million Insider Control: Approx. 18% 52 Week Trading Range: Hi: $0.69 Low: $0.21
17 Page 17 GSN: INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER ADVISORS ECONOMIC ADVICE 3910 NE 26 th Ave., Lighthouse Point, FL Monthly, 1 year, $ $89. Claude Resources: Solid combination Gold mining and Oil & Gas producer James Rapholz: I think I ve discovered my next Glamis Gold. I recommended Glamis about three years ago when it was an unknown at two dollars a share. Glamis is now trading for about $30. And as a matter of fact this one may just turn out to be an even bigger winner than Glamis because it not only produces gold but it also produces black gold (oil & gas)! It is a small unknown company but it is in production and will soon be making a lot of money for it shareholders. Claude Resources, Inc. (AMEX CGR) Contact Information: Neil McMillan, CEO/President, th Ave. S, Saskatoon, SK S7K 5M5, Phone (306) I own 15,000 shares of Claude. It is trading for about 98 cents a share today ( ). I strongly advise you to look this one over real good before making a decision on how to invest your money in gold stocks. I expect this issue to be trading for over $2 within seven months and make a tremendous price gain over the life of this bull market in gold. Claude Resources, Inc. is a gold mining production company and an oil and gas producer based in Saskatchewan, Canada. The company has 61.7 million shares outstanding (66.8 million fully diluted) and is listed on both the Toronto and American Stock Exchanges. The company has a strong balance sheet, experienced management team and a very attractive mix of long-term revenue generating assets. These critical strengths provide as solid base for future corporate expansion. Claude s principal asset is the Seabee gold mine which is located 125 kilometers northeast of LaRonge, Saskatchewan. This 100% owned and operated mine went into production in 1991 and has produced in excess of 650,000 ounces of gold. The mine is a high grade, narrow vein underground operation with approximately 733,000 tones of reserves and an additional 1.4 million tones of resources with significant upside potential. Mining operations are performed by Claude s mining division, Centaur Mining Contractors. The Seabee mine operates with a cash operating cost of about $US 250 per ounce and total production costs of $US 325 per ounce. Claude controls a large land package surrounding the Seabee mine. Two recent discoveries, the Porky Lake zone and Santoy property have both been advanced to the bulk sample stage and are expected to be test-mined in Throughput at the nearby Seabee mill will be doubled to 1,100 tones per day for a modest capital cost to accommodate potential ore from Seabee and, if bulk samples prove successful, from these new discoveries. In 1998, Claude acquired Madsen Gold Corp., located in the prolific Red Lake gold camp in northwestern Ontario. This 10,000 acre (4,000 hectare) property produced 2.6 million ounces of gold before being closed in Highlights: Average five year cash costs of approximately US $250 per ounce, average five year total production costs US $325 per ounce, the Madsen Red Lake property is under option to Placer Dome, the company has oil & gas diversification and it has four advanced stage properties. In December of 2000, Claude entered into an option agreement with Placer Dome; whereby Placer can earn 55% interest in the Madsen project by spending CDN $8.2 million and delivering a positive feasibility study by the end of Placer Dome believes that the target model at the Madsen project is identical in nature to the multi-ounce per ton structures at the nearby Campbell mine (Placer Dome) and Red Lake mine (Goldcorp). The company owns 100% of the fully permitted 7,000 acre (3,000 hectare) Tartan Lake mine property located in Manitoba, Canada. The mine workings are currently being dewatered to facilitate a 4,500 meter underground drill program. Claude s Jojay property in Saskatchewan, Canada, also has an identical resource on it that is within trucking distance of an existing mill and will be the subject of additional exploration this year. In addition to the company s mining and milling properties, Claude owns considerable interests in several large oil and gas properties, most of which are located in the province of Alberta. These properties typically generate $9 million in gross revenues annually. This is a very good little gold mining and oil & gas producing company with an exceptionally bright future. Please believe me when I state that deals like this one don t come your way very often! But on the other hand I don t want anyone to jump into it on just my recommendation. I want you to contact the company ask for an information package and read it from cover to cover an awful lot of good things have taken place at Claude since I wrote it up in May of 05. Next I d like to have you go to their web site, and pick up all the information it has to offer. Then if you have any questions or if there is anything that you don t understand call the investor information office at (306) to make certain that all of your questions have been answered to your fullest satisfaction before committing your hard earned money to an investment in this company.
18 Page 18 GSN: INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER ADVISORS GROWTH STOCK OUTLOOK P.O. Box 15381, Chevy Chase, MD year, 24 issues, $235. Do not dismiss the possibility that gold may cross the Dow Charles Allmon: I bought my first gold shares around 1955, American South African, then listed on the New York Stock Exchange. You played ASA like a yo-yo. When you thought the stock market was headed down, you bought ASA. You sold ASA when a new market uptrend appeared to be underway. Big money traded in and out of American South African. ASA probably moved as predictably as any stock on the Big Board, but that party ended in the early 1970s when President Nixon closed the gold window. For good reason: The U.S. dollar still was convertible into gold. For years, Charles de Gaulle, president of France, loaded up on U.S. treasury gold at $35 per ounce. Smart move indeed. De Gaulle hauled away tons of U.S. gold in exchange for U.S. paper dollars and gold soared while U.S. paper declined. All of my managed account clients held large positions in South African gold shares for several years in the late 70s. In January 1980, I spoke at a major gold conference in Palm Springs, California, just as gold hit its wild finale. At my round table discussions, I stated unequivocally that I intended to sell all gold shares the following week. Which I did, just as gold was cresting around $850 per ounce. Here we are in 2006 and our managed accounts hold both Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX) (a GSO company) which recently acquired Placer Dome. Barrick Gold now is top dog in the gold mining industry, ahead of Newmont, which was the leader for years. The World Gold Council reports that global investment demand for gold rose by 56% during the third quarter of So what might drive gold demand in 2006 and later? Several factors. Raging debt and a spendthrift U.S. Congress may be a major contributor. With the U.S. trade deficit now pushing $800 billion, and heading pell-mell for $1 trillion ($1,000,000,000,000), can either inflation or deflation be far behind? For several years, central banks around the world sold gold in concert, agreeing to offer 500 tonnes annually, parceled out according to country reserves. That put a lid on gold for some years. Then came the perception of future inflation. Boom! Some central banks, which had been selling gold for years, expressed interest in increasing their gold reserves. At the end of 1999, world central banks combined gold inventory accounted for about 15% of their total TheGoldShow.com reserves. In late 2005, that figure stood at 9% gold in total monetary reserves. Even Russia s central bank recently indicated that 10% gold reserves would be appropriate, double the 5% gold in current reserves. Central banks of Argentina and South Africa made similar noises. In Austria, the executive director of the central banks says that his bank held more gold than U.S. denominated assets, even though the bank halved its gold reserves to about 300 tonnes in the past ten years, reports the Financial Times. The World Gold Council said that central banks hold 31,000 tonnes of gold, about ten years of annual demand. In 2005, gold jewelry demand alone will exceed the 500 tonnes of gold which central banks agreed to sell annually in their broad 1999 agreement. Unthinkable a decade ago, South Africa, once the world s major gold producer, sees their 2005 gold production at the lowest level in 80 years. With sharply declining gold grades, South Africa production could plummet to one-sixth of 2005 production in 25 years. Declining global gold supply weighs heavily in boosting the gold price. Crank in strong investment demand for gold in China, India, and the Middle East, plus the real fear of Islamic fanatics, and we may have the perfect financial storm. I reiterate my original gold forecast of some years ago (which was subsequently picked up by several others). Do not dismiss the possibility that the gold price may again cross the Dow. While gold appears to be in a new bull market, we should expect some heart-stopping declines along the way, say $90 $160 per ounce, albeit demand continues to build. A major nuclear attack by terrorists on one or more U.S. cities sometime in the next seven years could put the Dow below 2,900, and gold above 2,900. After 14 centuries of off-and-on Islamic jihad, Islam again is on the march. The Muslim conquest of Europe moves inexorably to conclusion in the 21 st century. As I have mentioned before, Islam expects to defeat the West through the wombs of its women. This alone could unhinge most financial systems, forcing gold even higher. The Sunday Times of London reported on December 11 that Israel had ordered preparation for an attack on Iran s nuclear facilities before the end of March Iran recently purchased the latest Russian ground-to-air missiles capable of bringing down jet fighters as well as missiles. They could be operational in a matter of weeks. Is this intelligence actionable for investors? Perhaps. An Israeli hit on Iran, whose president in December promised to wipe Israel of the map, could send oil and gold soaring and the whole world holds its breath. Meanwhile, the stock market and gold rarely ride the same roller coaster for long. Eventually permanent decline in oil availability will alter the financial equation as never before. But that s down the road.
19 Page 19 GSN: INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER ADVISORS INVESTOR S DIGEST of Canada 133 Richmond St W., Toronto, ON M5H 3M8. 1 year, 24 issues, $ will see focus shift from black gold to yellow Jennifer Dowty: Some market mavens dubbed 2005 the year of black gold. In 2003, small caps outperformed; in 2004 mid-caps led the rally; then, in 2005, the large caps came into full bloom. In 2005, the S&P/TSX 60 Index increased 26.3 per cent, more than double the returns for the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index, which climbed 10.6 per cent. The major reason for the disparity in performance between these indexes? Energy. Energy was the sector leader, delivering a spectacular 63.4 per cent return. At year-end, this sector had a 26.9 per cent weighting in the large-cap index and only a 16.8 per cent weighting in the smallcap index. Having a material position in energy stocks was the key to strong investor gains in Looking forward to 2006, sector calls and weightings will once again be crucial. Energy will remain strong, but I believe the sector leader will shift from black gold to yellow gold. Other base metals, such as copper and zinc, will continue to trend upward. Commodities have, indeed, enjoyed a multi-year rally; however, it is my belief that we haven t even begun to see the peak. Demand is still strong As emerging countries, such as China and India, continue to grow, demand will remain strong for commodities, and the uptrend for these stocks should remain intact. These non-renewable resources are in tremendous demand! This is not to say that the furious rally we have seen in the first weeks of the year will not be followed by a correction. A short correction, or a brief period of consolidation, should be expected and would, in fact, be healthy for the market, setting the stage for future positive momentum. However, after a short period of weakness, strong demand, tight supply, heightened merger and acquisition (M&A) activity and higher earnings revisions, due to strong commodity prices, should boost commodities even higher. M&A activity will grow with commodity prices hovering near record levels; companies are flush with cash and seeking growth. I believe the Canadian market will rally, the Canadian dollar will embark on US$0.90 and that we will see healthy returns from the S&P/TSX Composite Index again in 2006, led by metals. Bullish for the market are the soon-to-be completed Bank of Canada s tightening cycle inflationary pressures remaining benign and the Canadian labor market staying healthy. Stocks that I featured in previous issues, and which remain on my list of favourites for 2006, include ING Canada, Calfrac Well Services, Certicom, Crew Energy, Duvernay Oil, Yamana Gold, Virginia Gold Mines, Shore Gold, ATS Automation Tooling Systems, EuroZinc Mining, Google And Rider Resources. Discussed below are three stocks that appear attractive, ranked in order of my preference. My No. 1 pick, Alamos Gold Inc. (TSX AGI, $8.15, , has increased by over 20 per cent year-to-date. However, despite the runup, I recommend buying this stock now and accumulating shares on any dips. Here are four reasons: First, this is a development-stage mining company with one of the largest undeveloped gold resources in Mexico. The company is nearing production and is in the final phase of mine development. Management expects to reach commercial production in first-quarter The company will report positive cash flows and earnings this year. This also makes Alamos an attractive takeover candidate. Second, production and reserve estimates continue to increase due to positive drilling results that indicate high-grade resources. Third, Alamos has no production hedges and is The Bull & Bear Financial Report BOOK STORE See Our Monthly Special Offers For the best prices and largest selection of investment books and tapes online visit the Bull & Bear s Book Store at: TheBullandBear.com
20 Page 20 GOLD STOCK NEWS FEATURED COMPANY Linux Gold Plans $1.4 Million Exploration Program at Gold, Base Metals Granite Mountain Property Top Gold Timer of the Year Recommends Linux Gold in Gold-Silver Portfolio Investors sat up and took notice in December when the Granville Market Letter added Linux Gold Corp. (OTC BB: LNXGF) to its portfolio of gold and silver stocks. The legendary Joe Granville was named the 2005 Gold Timer of the Year by the Timer Digest. Granville has published his market letter continuously for 42 years. He says sharply higher interest rates and worsening inflation may be ahead. Granville believes gold will reach $1,000 within the next three years, a situation that he says makes buying gold stocks a smarter move than buying the metals directly. Linux Gold is one of the stocks recommended by Granville who has set a price objective of US$1.00. Following Granville s recommendation, the price of Linux Gold s stock has more than doubled. If gold breaks the 1980 high of $850 an ounce, as some analysts are projecting, this will take gold mining shares like Linux Gold to record highs. Here is what Linux Gold President and CEO John Granite Mountain Gold Polymetallic Platinum Project Seward Peninsula >> The Seward Peninsula projects 200 miles into the Bering Sea just below the Arctic Circle. The region is mostly tundra cut by mountain ranges. The eastern portion of the peninsula, where Linux Gold has staked 37 square miles of claims, has a history of placer gold mining and strong geologic indications of uranium, platinum group, gold, and base metal mineralization. Robertson has to say about his company: 2006 should be a good year for Linux Gold. We have an aggressive $1.4 million exploration program planned for our Granite Mountain project where we believe there are several near surface polymetallic deposits. Our Fish Creek joint geophysical venture with Teryl Resources is looking even more promising with the recent discovery of an intrusive target over 1 km in length and meters wide. The Fish Creek claims are only 6 miles from the 4 million ounce Fort Knox Mine now in production by Kinross Gold. In light of the increase in the price of gold over the past few years, the time could not be better to fund and develop a gold company. Linux Gold has set itself an ambitious goal to develop mineral prospects that have the potential to become large producing mines. Currently, the company has interests in five projects in Alaska, British Columbia and China. Of those projects, Granite Mountain and Fish Creek, located in areas that have billions of dollars of either present mineral resources or past-production values, are by far the most promising. Granite Mountain Exploration Results Show Significant Levels of Gold, Silver, Base Metals In April 2005, Linux Gold aggressively staked an intriguing 37 square mile area on Granite Mountain on Alaska s Seward Peninsula. Historically, the area has produced over 400,000 ounces of placer gold and placer platinum from nearby stream deposits. The Granite Mountain property is near significant gold, copper and zinc reserves