PERFORMANCE UPDATE ASSET CLASS REVIEW THE STOCK MARKET WORLD CUP WINNER SEPTEMBER BLUES WHAT RISK ARE YOU TAKING WITH YOUR MONEY?

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1 PERFORMANCE UPDATE ASSET CLASS REVIEW THE STOCK MARKET WORLD CUP WINNER SEPTEMBER BLUES WHAT RISK ARE YOU TAKING WITH YOUR MONEY? FINAL COMMENT PERFORMANCE UPDATE Stock market performance in July was generally mixed with big differences in regional performance. For example, European equity markets lost over 3%, whilst emerging markets gained over 3%. There was also a wide divergence between small and large company performance with the difference in big and small US and UK companies being 3.66% and 1.50% - the big companies outperforming. Our UK stock market tracker investment rose 0.11%. The announcement of tougher sanctions against Russia and the collapse of a big Portuguese bank held back generally positive economic data. Whilst the problem bank in Portugal has been bailed out, the reactions of the Russian leader Putin are unpredictable and this remains one of the main threats to our wealth. We are very pleased that the portfolios grew over the month by between 0.14% and 0.89%: The percentage held in equities remained the same at: Foundation 29% Cautious 51% Balanced 69% Adventurous 89% Dynamic Equity 97%

2 Adventurous Portfolio: Brief Commentary Over the last month the portfolio produced a positive return of 0.23%, outperforming against the benchmark. Equity markets were mixed over the month with the UK stock market rising 0.11% and the USA up 0.86%. Europe fell however 3.11% as fears of greater sanctions against Russia hurt European stock markets the most. For example, Russia accounts for 3% of Germany s exports and even though this is a small amount in percentage terms, a collapse of this export market could really hurt the German economy. Our Fidelity Index Europe investment, which we have a 5% weighting in, fell 3.11%. The next biggest loss came from the rotation out of smaller companies and into larger ones which caused the HSBC FTSE250 to fall 1.12%. On the positive side emerging markets look as though they have broken out into upward trends and this helped the Invesco Perpetual Hong Kong & China Fund grow by 6.02%. Exposure to emerging markets increased from 8% to 13% over the month with the addition of the Jupiter India Fund. Japan also began to break out of its trading range and this helped the Neptune Japan Opportunities Fund grow by 2.96%. The investment in the two UK commercial property funds continued to perform well with gains over the month of 1.41% and 0.95%. Balanced Portfolio: Brief Commentary Over the last month the portfolio produced a positive return of 0.36%, outperforming against the benchmark. Equity markets were mixed over the month with the UK stock market rising 0.11% and the USA up 0.86%. However, Europe fell 3.11% as fears of greater sanctions against Russia hurt European stock markets the most. Emerging markets look as though they have broken out into upward trends and this helped the Invesco Perpetual Hong Kong & China Fund grow by 6.02%. Exposure to emerging markets increased from 5% to 8% over the month with an increase in exposure to India. Japan also began to break out of its trading range and this helped the Neptune Japan Opportunities Fund grow by 2.96%. The investment in the three UK commercial property funds continued to perform well with gains over the month of 1.41%, 1.22% and 0.68%. We believe that these three investments will help the portfolio produce steadier positive returns. In fact these three funds have all produced returns of over 10% in the last year and more importantly on a very consistent basis. We expect this to continue albeit investing in property does hold its own specific risks. All of the investments in the absolute return funds also produced positive returns over the month, with the Standard Life Global Absolute Return Strategies Fund growing by 1.66%. If these funds can produce between 5-7% over the next year and property funds deliver 10% then the portfolio will be protected somewhat from any decline in equity markets. Whilst we still believe equity markets will be higher by the end of the year there is always a huge uncertainty investing in them.

3 Cautious Portfolio: Brief Commentary Over the last month the portfolio produced a positive return of 0.14%, matching the benchmark. Equity markets were mixed over the month with the UK stock market rising 0.11% and the USA up 0.86%. However, Europe fell 3.11% as fears of greater sanctions against Russia hurt European stock markets the most. Emerging markets look as though they have broken out into upward trends and due to this the exposure to emerging markets increased from 3% to 6%. Our equity investments were mixed over the month with the Global Trend Fund growing the most at 0.31%. The worst performing fund was the Invesco Perpetual High Income Fund which fell 0.70%. This fund however is still one of the best performing funds over the last 6 months. The investments in the two UK commercial property funds continued to perform well with gains over the month of 1.41% and 0.95%. We believe that these three investments will help the portfolio produce steadier positive returns. All of the investments in the absolute return funds also produced positive returns over the month, with the Standard Life Global Absolute Return Strategies Fund growing by 1.66%. If these funds can produce between 5-7% over the next year and property funds deliver 10% then the portfolio will be protected somewhat from any decline in equity markets. Whilst we still believe equity markets will be higher by the end of the year there is always a huge uncertainty investing in them.

4 Dynamic Equity Portfolio: Brief Commentary Over the last month the portfolio produced a positive return of 0.89%, outperforming against the benchmark. There has been a rotation in momentum in stock markets over the last three months in which emerging markets and larger companies have started to outperform developed markets and smaller companies. Our positions in Asian stock markets have helped us to outperform this month with the Invesco Perpetual Hong Kong & China Fund growing by 6.02%, followed by the Newton Asian Income Fund which grew 3.39%. The headwind over the month proved to be the effect that tougher sanctions on Russia had on European stock markets. Previously the sanctions were minimal but after the shooting down of the Malaysian Airlines aeroplane and subsequent behaviour of Putin, tougher sanctions have been imposed. This has caused European equities to fall the most and our two investments in European equities fell 3.00% and 3.11%. We feel that our portfolio is well balanced with more of our wealth invested in regions that are displaying good momentum, which includes Japan, Hong Kong and India. Foundation Portfolio: Brief Commentary Over the last month the portfolio produced a positive return of 0.30%. Equity markets were mixed over the month with the UK stock market rising 0.11% and the USA up 0.86%. However, Europe fell 3.11% as fears of greater sanctions against Russia hurt European stock markets the most. Bonds rose over the month, with inflation linked bonds particularly strong. The M&G Index Linked Fund grew 0.51% and the Standard Life Global Index Linked Fund by 0.38%. The best performing fund was the Standard Life Global Absolute Return Strategies Fund which grew by 1.66%. We are particularly pleased that the absolute return holdings are beginning to show some strong growth after they were restructured. The property funds that we also recently added to the portfolio also performed well rising by 1.41% and 0.95%. We now feel that the portfolio is much better balanced with the changes that we recently made and if we did see a stock market correction then we would expect only small losses if at all any.

5

6 ASSET CLASS REVIEW When building a portfolio, we constantly review each asset class in order to see if they are trending downwards, upwards or just consolidating before their next major move. From this review we attempt to put more of our clients wealth in those assets that are either trending upwards or are consolidating but look like trending upwards shortly. This section therefore will give you an insight into our current thinking as we have highlighted the current charts that look interesting. Overview There has been much positive economic news with recent data showing that the US economy continues to improve. On top of this, the biggest positive news for the global economic outlook is that oil prices continue their slide, with Brent crude hitting its lowest in nine months. Higher energy prices essentially act as a tax on consumers and businesses, so the drop should give a fillip to spending power and demand. However, despite this we are seeing a small sell off in global equity markets, with the biggest threat to our wealth coming from one man - Vladimir Putin. Before the downing of the Malaysian Airlines aeroplane, the West s response was minimal with largely immaterial sanctions being applied, but Putin s reaction to this tragic event is what has ultimately caused an increase in tensions. Instead of withdrawing forces and admitting to the mistake, he has increased his forces and tried to deny any involvement. In fact there are reports of an increase in troops and machinery just outside the Ukrainian border. The West has now increased its sanctions and will probably have to do so again. This is painful for economies struggling to recover from the credit crisis but Governments are now under pressure to hold the line, probably until Putin is removed by his own people. Anything less than this would probably be much more costly over the longer term. The global economy is so interconnected that a problem in one region can cause much damage to the opposite part of the world. The most obvious damage is in Europe where Russia is a powerful trading nation supplying Europe with much of its gas and also accounting for a significant part of Europe s exports. For example, Russia accounts for 3% of Germany s exports and if this is significantly reduced then it could tip the German (and European) economy back into recession (recent data from Italy shows that Italy has tipped back into recession). If Germany goes back into a recession then the global economy will also be largely affected as Europe is one of America s largest trading partners. We have now gone past the crossroads and western Governments will have to act together in a strong and uniformed way against Putin. How this unfolds will affect our wealth. If they are successful in curtailing Putin s power then markets will surge higher but if Putin continues to Empire build then we will almost certainly see a 10% plus correction in stock markets. US Verdict: S&P500 is undergoing a normal and healthy pull back to its trend line The one year chart of the US stock market is below and you can see that the upward trend remains intact with frequent pullbacks to the trend (red) line occurring. This new pullback is consistent with previous ones and the rhythm is therefore consistent making us believe that the market will break into new highs before the end of the year. What is more interesting is the fact that the US dollar has started to strengthen which will help our returns from our US investments as they have been significantly lowered by the strength of sterling against the dollar over the last year.

7 UK Verdict: Higher lows but the ceiling has not yet been broken Rather frustratingly the long term ceiling in the FTSE100 remains unbroken at On the positive side the chart below shows a series of higher lows which is now diverging at the ceiling. We therefore expect it to break through it shortly and if we see the Putin situation improve then the ceiling will break and our wealth will significantly increase. Europe Verdict: Europe has been affected the most by Russia Most of the selling in developed markets has been concentrated in the Eurozone. That's due to signs of economic weakness, deflation, and proximity to Russia and Ukraine. The chart below shows the performance of the top 50 European companies: The last pullback broke below the previous low and the stock market looks set to move to the 3000 level and at a point where the highs in 2010 and 2011 occurred. The recent pullback automatically triggered a reduction in exposure to European equities in the Global Trend and Global Momentum Funds. This will therefore help to protect your wealth if we do indeed see a further decline in markets.

8 Japan Verdict: still in its range (same as last month) The Japanese stock market is still consolidating last year s strong gains and is trending sideways. There was a small breakout but over the last few days the Nikkei has moved back to the area. We are still expecting the market to move higher but are waiting patiently for the breakout to occur. Emerging Markets Verdict: Strength is returning Breakouts are occurring in many emerging markets, namely Hong Kong/China, India and Brazil. However, the emerging market group is being dragged down by Russia which has fallen 16% over the last year. Exposure has been increased to Brazil, China and India over the month and we expect this trend to continue. This will help the higher risk portfolios the most. The breakout in India is the easiest to see but also Hong Kong has broken above the ceiling and we would expect it to surge higher:

9 Bonds Verdict: Inflation linked bonds are producing steady returns We hold two inflation linked bond funds in the foundation portfolio and they have produced steady returns over the last six months: Commodities Verdict: Oil is the lowest it s been for 9 months Considering the unrest in Iraq and the sanctions that have been put in place against Russia (two big oil producing nations) the price of oil has trended sideways and is now at the bottom of the range. This is great news for the economy as spikes in oil prices have tended to coincide with global recessions.

10 Currencies Verdict: Sterling remains strong but has fallen a bit against the US dollar This is good news for our investments as our overseas equity investments benefit from a falling sterling. The exchange rate against the US dollar (below) has fallen below $1.70. It will need to fall to $1.66 before we can be confident the trend has reversed.

11 THE STOCK MARKET WORLD CUP! The world cup finished with Germany as champions but the stock market world cup finished with ARGENTINA winning. The performance during the world cup in sterling terms ranged from minus 15.27% to positive 19.07%. We were shocked at this differential in only a short space of time. Here is a list of the top and bottom performers: TOP BOTTOM Argentina 19.07% France -5.20% Bosnia 4.37% Italy -6.56% Mexico 2.13% Ghana -9.02% USA 1.04% Greece % Japan 0.76% Portugal % Brazil 0.20% Before you get carried away and say that we should have invested in Argentina, the stock market has actually fallen 13% (due to it defaulting on its debt) since the world cup ended!

12 SEPTEMBER BLUES The following table shows the average monthly returns for the FTSE 100 Index since For example, in July the FTSE 100 Index has risen just over 1% on average: September has historically been the worst month with April and December the strongest. The data is similar for all of the US stock markets as well. This is, of course, only an average exhibited over many years, and September is certainly not the worst month of stock market trading every year. There are several theories which attempt to explain this phenomenon. One particular theory points to the fact the summer months usually offer light trading volumes on the stock market, as a good deal of investors typically take holiday time and refrain from selling stocks from their portfolio. Once autumn begins these investors typically return to work and exit positions they had been planning on selling. When this occurs, the market experiences increased selling pressure, and thus an overall decline. They then buy stocks for the next seven months. We are not planning selling all of your equity holdings on the 31 st August but are aware that it has paid to reduce risk during August and to put it back on in October.

13 WHAT RISK ARE YOU TAKING WITH YOUR MONEY? One of the most important factors that affect the returns on your portfolio is the risk that you are taking. Our objective is to reduce the risk of your portfolio during the bad times and increase it during the good times so that we protect your wealth in the bad investment periods and you remain invested and benefit from the good investment periods. If this is achieved successfully then the overall risk to your portfolio will reduce and your losses will be minimised during the bad times. But how do we measure the risk that you are taking? The best measure is something called volatility. This is simply a measure of how much your portfolio moves on a daily/weekly basis. For example, if a portfolio grows by 10% in a month and then falls by 5% the next it is much more volatile than a portfolio that grows by 2.5% in each of the two months. Most investors would prefer to be in the second portfolio as the returns are the same but the risk is much less. The objective of managing a portfolio is therefore to maximise returns but minimise the volatility (risk). So what are the risks of our portfolios? We use the annual and 3-year volatility as our preferred measures and the higher it is then the more risky the portfolio is. The table below shows the volatility of each of Watson Moore s portfolios against the average fund: Watson Moore Investment Portfolios 1 Year Volatility Volatility Since Launch Benchmark Funds 1 Year Volatility Volatility Since Launch Cautious Cautious Balanced Balanced Adventurous Adventurous By comparison, the UK Stock Market FTSE 100 has a volatility of 9.91 over 1 year and since launch and Emerging Market Equities has a volatility of over 1 year and since launch. Please note that the Foundation and Dynamic Equity portfolios have not been running for a year and therefore there is no risk data available for the table above.

14 FINAL COMMENT July proved to be a nervous month for stock markets, with a host of geopolitical problems. We have not mentioned the problems in Syria, Iraq and Gaza as we consider the Ukrainian crisis, exacerbated by the shooting down of the Malaysian Airlines aeroplane, the most significant one for our wealth. Changes have been made to the portfolios recently which has seen a rotation of money out of smaller UK companies into bigger ones and from troubled Europe into cheaper emerging markets that have begun to trend higher. We have also diversified some of the portfolios by increasing exposure to UK commercial property and restructuring the absolute return funds. We believe that the changes will help us navigate the current concerns and potentially the weaker month of September. Watson Moore Independent Financial Advisers Limited 63 Butts Green Road Hornchurch Essex RM11 2JS Tel: Fax: Authorised & Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority The past is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of any investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested. Taxation is subject to change and you may have to pay tax on any gains. The Watson Moore portfolios are unlikely to exactly mirror our clients' portfolios due to the timing of the initial investment and the speed of response to our fund switch recommendations as well as the effect of charges. The figures above therefore assume a client invested on the launch day and have responded immediately to our recommendations. All figures and charts are provided by Financial Express.

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