WORKING OUT А NEW MODEL OF FORECASTING OF ROAD ACCIDENTS ON A METHOD OF CONFLICT SITUATIONS FOR CITY CONDITIONS

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1 The 11 th International Conference RELIABILITY an STATISTICS in TRANSPORTATION an COMMUNICATION Proceeings of the 11th International Conference Reliability an Statistics in Transportation an Counication (RelStat 11), October 2011, Riga, Latvia, p ISBN Transport an Telecounication Institute, Loonosova 1, LV-1019, Riga, Latvia WORKING OUT А NEW MODEL OF FORECASTING OF ROAD ACCIDENTS ON A METHOD OF CONFLICT SITUATIONS FOR CITY CONDITIONS Kapski Denis, Korzhova Antonina Byelorussia National Technical University Nezavisiosty avenue, 65, Minsk, , the Republic of Belarus Ph.: Fax: E-ail: @gail.co The article presents the results of research to evelop techniques for rapi assessent of the effectiveness of easures to iprove roa safety. They inclue iproving the etho of traffic conflict situations an to evelop preictive oels of roa accients on conflict situations. Keyors: roa traffic, traffic conflicts, roa accients, accient preiction, forecasting ethos Proble solving Roa traffic has eergency, environental, econoic an social threats [1]. For participants in the oveent of all the threats ost crucial is the failure rate, since it irectly affecte their lives, health an elfare. Ho to reuce the accient have pai uch attention, espite this, accients still cannot be reuce in the orl annually are kille ore than 1 illion people an about 50 illion people are injure [2-5]. In the Republic of Belarus over the past 5 years there have been over 478 thousan accients, hich kille 7320 people an injure about 38.5 thousan people, an acciental loss aounte to about $ 1.7 billion [6-10]. The selection an evaluation of ecisions on roa traffic anageent one of the ost accessible, tiely, capital-an yet effective ethos of iproving traffic safety in the urban centres of accients [10-13]. In orer to ipleent reasonable easures to organize their oveents shoul be assesse against the yarsticks of security. You nee to evelop a ethoology for rapi assessent of the effectiveness of ipleente actions, hich is hel on coissione objects. It is necessary to reuce errors in the forulation of a specific event an is base on counting the nuber of operational conflicts in the ipleentation of, or ieiately after the ipleentation of activities. Its creation require iproveent in orer to iprove the accuracy of the existing etho of preicting roa accient on conflict situations (evelope a ne atheatical oel for eterining the accient on conflict situations) that is built on the basis of the aforeentione etho. The etho of conflict situations is one of the ost oern an operational ethos for preicting accients at sites of conflict. It is base on the existence of fairly strong epenence of the nuber of roa accients on the nuber of conflicts in each iniviual conflict. They are ivie into light (very angerous), eiu (a iracle ha passe) an heavy (or alost iraculously survive the accient). Conflict situations arise in the thousans, an soeties tens of thousans of ties ore than roa accient. By counting the relatively sall aount of tie conflicts in this type of conflict on the object uner investigation n сfs by placing it in the average nuber an ultiplying by the appropriate factor to bring η eterine the probable nuber of roa accients per year by Pa forula [10-11]: Р = n η, (1) Р projecte nuber of accients, a / year; N nuber of conflict situations, CFS / year; η factor to bring conflicts to roa accients, ifferent for each type of conflict. This is the etho of conflict propose by a Seish researcher С. Hayen. Unfortunately, the current etho is not sufficiently accurate preiction at this particular site because it oes not take into account several factors relate to the roa accient rate, especially for a relatively sall nuber of roa accients. In aition, various authors give ifferent coefficients of reuction that is associate ith soe national characteristics of the roa. In particular, in [14] prove that the grav- 165

2 Session 3. Transport Systes ity of the conflict an severity of accients significantly increases the accuracy of the forecast. Therefore it as consiere appropriately to iprove the etho of conflict situations; set into its oel estiate the egree of anger of conflict situations, the severity of roa accients, the sensitivity threshol of the conflict an the function of converting the nuber of reuce conflicts in the nuber of reuce roa accients. Developent of ne oel Dynaic auction of average an heavy conflict situations to the easy ones is entere. The ynaic factor of auction Krc is efine as the relation of conitional anger (risk of roa accients Ra) average or heavy conflict situations to conitional anger of the easy one [11]: a a R K = for an average conflict situation; (2) ac R R K = for a heavy conflict situation, (3) ac R R, R, K ac, K ac n' R conitional anger (risk of roa accients), accoringly light, average an serious conflict situations; ynaic auctions coefficients of conflict situations on egree of their anger accoringly average an serious. The average annual nuber of the auce conflict situations n ' is efine by the forula [11]: n + n K + n K = rc rc F, a. /year, (4) t t n, n s, n nubers of light, average an serious conflict situations accoringly fixe uring easureents; F t annual fun of tie, h/year; t s tie of easureents, h. Dynaic auction of roa accients on eight of consequences has been in a siilar ay execute also. The ynaic auce coefficient of roa accients K is efine as the relation of conitional eight of accient ith oun or ith a ealy outcoe to conitional eight of accient ith a aterial aage [11]: K K = = Е Е Е Е for accients ith oun; (5) for accients ith a ealy outcoe, (6) Е, Е, K, Е K conitional eight (the save up energy of estruction) to roa accients ith a aterial aage, oun an a ealy outcoe accoringly; ynaic auce coefficients of accients accoring to oun an a ealy outcoe. The average annual nuber of the auce accients n is efine by the forula [11]: ' n = n + n K + n K, a. a/year, (7) a a 166

3 The 11 th International Conference RELIABILITY an STATISTICS in TRANSPORTATION an COMMUNICATION n, n, n nubers of roa accients ith a aterial aage, oun an a ealy outcoe accoring, accients/year. The intereiate forula for calculation of preicte nuber of the auce roa accients Р has taken the folloing for: Р = n η, a. a/year; (8) Р preicte nuber of the auce roa accients, a. a/year; n i-annual nuber of the auce conflict situations, a./year; η conversion coefficient of the auce conflict situations to the auce roa accients for each kin of the conflict. Then instea of coefficient η a certain function of recalculation of nuber of the auce conflict situations in nuber of the auce roa accients has been applie an the settleent forula has taken the folloing for: Р = f ( n 10 3 ), a. a/year; (9) f ( n 10 3 ) function of recalculation of nuber of the auce conflict situations in nuber of the resulte accients, ifferent for each kin of the conflict. The concept of a threshol of sensitivity of the conflict is the greatest nuber of the auce conflict situations in the given conflict point that oesn't cause in it accients (i.e. absence of accients for three years). The sensitivity threshol iffers for each kin of the conflict an is taken aay fro the su of the auce conflict situations of each conflict point. Definition of nuber of the auce roa accients is spent on settleent nuber of the auce conflict situations n : n = n ( k ) F, a. /year; (10) t k nuber of conflict points of the given kin of the conflict on investigate object in hich there ere conflict situations; threshol of sensitivity of the conflict in the given kin of the conflict threshol, /h. The forula efinition of preicte nuber of the auce roa accients looks like: Р = f ( n 10 3 ) j, a. a/year. (11) Р ai δ ki The nuber of not auce accients i- eights of consequences P i is efine by the forula: P δ a a = K ki, a/year, (12) part of accients i- eight of consequences in investigate the k- conflict. It is efine fro statistics of the accient rate susceptibility for each kin of the conflict; Σ K the total ynaic auce coefficient of accients regaring eight of consequences (Table 4). For realization of ne settleent oel it is necessary to efine nuerical values of ynaic auce coefficients K ac an K ac, K и K ; a sensitivity threshol ; conversion functions of the settleent auce conflict situations to the auce roa accients f ( n ) an a part of accients i- eight of consequences δ ki for each kin of the conflict. With that en in vie experient-calculate researches have been execute, incluing reception an processing of statistical saple of roa accients, experiental easureents of conflict situations an processing of the receive saple, an also search of the best epenences of the auce accients fro the auce conflict situations. Researches ere realize at 100 signal-controlle junction an 80 hups. Depenences of roa accients fro conflict situations in six kin s conflicts (Table 1) ere investigate. 167

4 Session 3. Transport Systes Table 1. Types an kins of investigate conflicts type nuber Nj kin schee 1 Collision lateral «Transport transport» «Transport peestrian» 2 Collision rotary 3 Collision passing (anoeuvring) 4 Collision ith ipact behin 5 Ipact, transit transport peestrian (V 30) 5b Ipact, transit transport peestrian (V > 30) 6 Ipact, turning transport peestrian Investigate saple of accient rate has ae 3360 accients for three years, incluing 2946 ith a aterial aage, 395 ith oun an 19 ith a ealy outcoe. Investigate saple of conflict situations has ae pieces for five hours, incluing lights, 871 averages an 105 serious. The accient rate analysis is execute for three years separately for each investigate object an for saple as a hole. For each kin of the conflict total nuber of accients an separately i-annual nuber of accients ith a aterial aage, oun an a ealy outcoe as efine. Results of the analysis are resulte in Table 2. Experiental researches ere spent for the purpose of efinition of quantity an risk level of conflict situations. The researchers, ho have passe special instructing, observe of ork of investigate object ithin 5 hours of aylight tie (approxiately fro 1 p.. till 6 p..). They fixe tie an a place (a conflict point), a kin an risk level of conflict situation. Then the i-annual nuber of conflict situations for each kin of the conflict for each risk level an in hole (Table 3) as efine. Table 2. Investigate saple of roa accients nuber Nj schee Mi-annual nuber of accients n an their part δ k in the saple (n /δ k ) The aterial aage The oun The fatal accient n Σj /Δ j 1 115,333/0,867 16,000/0,120 1,667/0, ,000/0, ,000/0,904 19,333/0,093 0,667/0, ,000/0, ,000/0,981 3,333/0,017 0,333/0, ,667/0,171 4 V > ,333/0,970 13,667/0,028 1,333/0, ,333/0,441 5 V 30 2,000/0,118 14,667/0,862 0,333/0,020 17,000/0,015 5б V > 30 6,000/0,103 50,333/0,868 1,667/0,029 58,000/0, ,333/0,137 14,333/0,843 0,333/0,020 17,000/0,015 Total 982,000/0, ,667/0,117 6,333/0, ,000/1,000 In raings 1 4 accient rate epenences for to typical conflicts, receive on the existing an iprove ethos, are resulte. Apparently fro Table 4 an raings 1 4, the epenences receive on an avance etho, are statistically ore significant an have greater accuracy. The conucte researches have shon that possibilities of the further perfection of a etho aren't settle yet. In particular, etaile elaboration of kins of the conflict an introuction in settleent oel of the factor of spee an conflict zones is possible. Also as a result of researches auce coefficients η are receive. They ere aapte for Byelorussia conitions. 168

5 The 11 th International Conference RELIABILITY an STATISTICS in TRANSPORTATION an COMMUNICATION Тable 3. Investigate saple of conflict situations (for five hours of easureents) The risk level The sche The nuber of conflict situations Nj б 6 e V 30 V > 30 Light Average Serious Total Ð à, àâ/ãî ä n êô ñ, êô ñ/ãî ä*1000 Figure 1. The accient rate epenence fro conflict situations (the conflict 1, an existing etho) 7, ï ðèâ.àâ/ãî ä Ð à / , ï ðèâ.êô ñ/ãî ä*1000 n // êô ñ Figure 2. The auce accient rate epenence fro auce conflict situations (the conflict 1, an avance etho) 169

6 Session 3. Transport Systes Table 4. Results of experient-calculate conflict situations researches nuber N j Dynaic auce coefficients K ac K ac accients K K Sensitivity threshol, /h K Σ Calculation function for nuber efinition of the auce accients Р : Р = f ( n 10 3 ), a. accients/year ,04 1,185 Р = 0,0006( n 10 3 ) 2 +0,129 n , , , , ,08 5b , ,14 1,213 1,132 1,268 8,736 10,289 5,495 Р = 0,113 n ,52 Р = 0,00027( n 10 3 ) 2 + 0,04 n ,211 Р = 0,073 n 10 3 Р = 0,002( n 10 3 ) 2 + 0,067 n ,369 Р = 0,00027( n 10 3 ) 2 + 0,038 n ,435 Р = 0,067 n ,406 Technique for rapi assessent of the effectiveness of roa traffic anageent Technique of the operative efficiency estiation ill inclue the folloing. Conflict situations easureents ere carrie out on real existing object ithin 5 hours of aylight tie (approxiately fro 1 p.. till 6 p..) the orking ay of eek (on ne or reconstructe objects through 5-7 ays) after action introuction. To observers can carry out easureents at the big quarilateral crossroas, one observer can carry out easureents at tripartite or sall quarilateral crossroas or hups. Observers shoul settle on at fro investigate object to keep the sector or all objects. Observers shoul pass special instructing ith vieo isplay they coul ientify confiently conflict situations, iviing the into light, average an serious. The observer arks place on the object plan, a conflict kin, risk level an tie at occurrence of a conflict situation. Both observers shoul be in constant contact, it ill allo iscuss a isputable situation an coe to a consensus. Ð à, àâ/ãî ä n êô ñ, êô ñ/ãî ä*1000 Figure 3. The accient rate epenence fro conflict situations (the conflict 3, an existing etho) 170

7 The 11 th International Conference RELIABILITY an STATISTICS in TRANSPORTATION an COMMUNICATION , ï ðèâ.àâ/ãî ä Ð à / , ï ðèâ.êô ñ/ãî ä*1000 n // êô ñ Figure 4. The auce accient rate epenence fro auce conflict situations (the conflict 3, an avance etho) Preicte roa accients are calculate in the folloing sequence. For each kin of the conflict ithin all crossroas the nuber of conflict situations an the i-annual nuber of the auce conflict situation are efine. The probable nuber of the auce accients Р j is efine for each kin of n conflicts, hich then is translate to the probable nuber of not auce accients Р for each kin of the conflict by total ynaic auce coefficient to eight of consequences. In suary the all roa accients for each kin of conflicts ithin investigate object are suarize. Results are verifie ith the ata receive on a etho Conflict Zones. The control estiation is repeate in case of significant ivergences an action is correcte if results prove to be true. Conclusions Research has to evelop a ethoology for rapi assessent of the effectiveness of ipleente easures to iprove roa safety base on accient preiction etho for conflict situations, hich allos you to evaluate an if necessary ajust activities irectly in their ipleentation. A ne atheatical oel for forecasting etho of accients on conflict situations in the conflict, "transport-transport" an peestrian traffic, "by replacing the coefficients of bringing conflicts to accients ore coplex functional relationships an the introuction of a ne coputational oel preicting factors (ynaic cast of conflict situations on the egree of anger to light, a ynaic cast of accients an the severity of the threshol of conflict on conflict situations), resulting in iprove forecast accuracy an ake it acceptable for practical application in the rapi assessent of roa safety. The evelope oel allos us to forecast not only an aequate nuber of accients but the severity of their ipact on existing facilities, to evaluate the esigne technical solutions for transport planning facilities, schees of oveent an traffic light control oes ipleente on the street netork of the Republic of Belarus. It is possible to further iprove the preiction of accients on conflict situations by ore etaile classification of types of conflicts an the introuction of coputational oel preictions for ne factors affecting the accient rate, in particular, spee. References 1. On approval of the Concept of Roa Safety in the Republic of Belarus: Council of Ministers of the Rep. Belarus, June 14, 2006, 757, National Register of the Republic of Belarus, 5/22459, The global crisis in the fiel of roa safety. Iproving roa safety goa oveents aroun the orl. Agena ite 46 February 24, 2010 / / Sixty-fourth General Assebly of the Unite Nations [elec- 171

8 Session 3. Transport Systes tronic resource], Moe of access: INF1e.pf. - Date of access: Vlaiirov, N.I. The organization of service processes vehicles: Textbook. Manual / N.I Vlaiirov, A.N. Meveev. Riga: Institute of Transport an Counications, p. 4. Kaigoroova, T. Traffic Safety / T.V. Kaigoroova, A.V. Ivanov, E.I. Ziin. Nesletter for health care leaers FSI Central Research Institute of the Organization of the Public Health Meical University [electronic resource], 28, Moe of access: co_attachents / i, 43/task, onloa. - Date of access: Collision arning ith auto brake a real-life safety perspective / E. Coelingh, et al. Proceeings of the 20th Conference on Enhance Safety of Vehicle. Lyon, France, p. 6. Inforational aterials. "Roa safety situation in Belarus in , respectively, an eerging trens" / E. by V.L. Filistovich. Minsk: Printing Centre of Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, p. 7. Analytical copilation of roa accients. Minsk: SI "Printing Centre Interior of the Repub. of Belarus ", p. 8. Roa safety situation in Belarus in , respectively, an eerging trens: an analytical survey / Copile by V.V. Bulbenkov, A.A. Sushko, O.G. Livansky, E. by A.N. Kuleshov. Minsk: Printing Centre of Ministry of Internal Affairs Repub. of Belarus, p. 9. Inforation on the state roa transport accients in the Republic of Belarus in 2010: Analytical survey / Copile by V.V. Bulbenkov, O.G. Livansky; E. by E.E. Poluen. Minsk: Ministry of Interior of the Repub. of Belarus, p. 10. Kapsky, D.V. Preiction of accients in roa traffic: onograph / E. by D.V. Kapsky. Minsk: Belarusian National Technical University, p. 11. Wrobel, J.A. Deterination of loss in traffic: onograph / Y.A. Wrobel, D.V. Kapsky, E.N. Cot. Minsk: Belarusian National Technical University, p. 12. Wrobel, J.A. Loss in roa traffic / Y.A. Wrobel. Minsk: Belarusian National Technical University, p. 13. Wrobel, J.A. Roa Traffic: 2 part / Y.A. Wrobel. Minsk: Belarus. Roa Safety Founation, Part p. 14. Cot, E.N. Iproving the efficiency an roa safety of peestrian an traffic iproveents at the intersections of traffic lights an oes of regulation: Dis.... Caniate in Tech. Science: / E.N. Cot. Minsk, p. 172