Project V3 Lava PROJECT V3 LAVA

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1 Project V3 Lava PROJECT V3 LAVA 177

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3 Project V3 Lava Coordinators: Project V3 - LAVA Realization of the lava flow hazard map at Mount Etna and set up of a method for its dynamic update Ciro Del Negro, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Piazza Roma 2, Catania, Italy, [email protected] Stefano Gresta, Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche, Università di Catania, Corso Italia 57, Catania, Italy, [email protected] Objectives Mt. Etna is one of the most active and investigated volcanoes in the world. Its eruptions are often characterized by lava flows which spread along its flanks. Such eruptions can potentially reach the villages located to medium-low elevations. Even the area where city of Catania is settled was reached in the past by the flows outpoured from eruptive fractures opened at lower elevations. In the last century, the village of Mascali was destroyed by lava flows in 1928, while the villages of Fornazzo in 1979 and Randazzo in 1981 were threatened by lava flows. More recently, several tourist facilities have been repeatedly destroyed, with serious damage to the local economy. Some results of the previous INGV-DPC ( ) Project V3_6 Etna, concerning: (i) the updated catalogue of eruptions, (ii) the better knowledge of the internal structure of the volcano, (iii) the capability to model in the near-real-time the data from the monitoring networks with the goal of identifying the most probable areas of opening of an eruptive fissure, and (iv) the considerable progress in the simulation of lava flows; allow us to define the objective of the present project. It consists in the production of hazard maps from invasion of lava flow for medium and short term. The short term maps will be dynamic instruments, which could be semi-automatically modified by considering the signals collected by the monitoring networks, the evolution of the eruption, and the weighted opinion of experts. The research in the project will include the followings steps: a. Definition and realization of databases and digital maps in GIS architecture, integrating the geological geophysical, and geochemical information. b. Definition of the principles and paradigms for the realization of the dynamic hazard map. c. Definition of the vent opening probability at medium and short term, on the basis of data from the terrestrial and satellite observation systems. d. Application of mathematical models for the prediction of lava flow paths. e. Realization of the hazard map. f. Development of methodologies for the dynamic update of the hazard map on the basis of the data from the observation systems, and comparison with test cases from recent eruptions. g. Study of the methodologies for the operational functioning of the new technologies at point f above, and of the interface modalities with the Functional Center of DPC. LAVA will provide practical forecasts of the future course of lava flows to enable quantitative hazard assessments and operational guidelines for, potentially, mitigatory 179

4 actions to be undertaken. We plan to achieve these forecasts by use of numerical computer simulation of the flow paths over the surface of the volcano, these simulations will be constrained by knowledge from former eruptions and from near real-time field and remote observations of the state of lava flow advance. 180 Espected products Data employed in the project, organized in a database. Guidelines for the realization of the lava flow hazard map and its dynamic update. Eruptive fracture/vent opening probability map at medium and short term, including the dynamic update methodologies at point f above. Lava flow hazard map at Mount Etna, including the dynamic update methodologies at point f above. Applications of the dynamic hazard maps at the two points above to test cases from recent eruptions at Mount Etna. Feasibility study for the realization of an interface at the Functional Center of DPC, to be agreed upon with the same DPC, for the products at the last three point above. State of the Art of the ongoing researches related to the present objectives It is not possible to prevent a volcano from erupting, but it is now becoming possible to forecast generally where a volcano is likely to direct a lava flow and when such a flow is underway to forecast its course and rate of advance. Timely predictions of the areas likely to be invaded by lava flows are of major interest to hazard managers during a volcanic eruption. Although most volcanic lava flows do not result in loss of human life, they can potentially cause enormous damage to property. Lava flows can bury homes and agricultural land under several meters of hardened rock. Typical examples of lava flows are from the Etna volcano, where its frequent effusive eruptions can pose hazard to several villages. In order to estimate the amount of damage that can be caused by a lava flow, it is useful to be able to predict the size and extent of such flows. Numerical simulation is a good tool to examine such events. With such simulations, one can explore various eruption scenarios and these can specifically be used to estimate the extent of the invasion area, the time required for the flow to reach a particular point and resulting morphological changes. However, it is not easy to develop a robust tool for forecasting lava flow pathways, because the temperature, rheological properties and effusion rates are not linearly dependent and they are variables on space-time domain. The INGV-DPC ( ) Project V3_6 Etna improved the hazard assessment at Etna through the development of accurate and robust physical-mathematical models able to forecast the spatial and temporal evolution of lava flows. In particular, the new MAGFLOW model [RU Del Negro] based on cellular automatons for the simulation of lava flows was applied to the recent eruptions of 2001, 2004 and 2006 Etna volcano. The evolution function of this model is a steady state solution of the Navier-Stokes equation in the case of a horizontal plan. The effect of rheology and cooling are included in the model. Total flow volumes of 2004 Etna eruption were obtained by integrating the effusion rates estimated using satellite thermal data over the entire duration of the eruption. MAGFLOW represents the central part of an extensive methodology for the compilation of hazard maps related to lava invasion at Mt Etna. Preliminary hazard map was realized by simulating a number of lava flows from a set of initial data and with different parameters of the volcanic system in a meaningful range of variation.

5 Project V3 Lava The already existing SCIARA model [RU Crisci] was integrated with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) in order to estimate the values of the parameters of the model. This procedure was necessary because SCIARA works with not physical parameters which must be determined before every simulation. The application of the GA to SCIARA model was validated simulating the eruptions of the 2001 and of Etna. Once that the SCIARA model was well calibrated and validated, an application for the new kind compilation of maps showing the hazard related to lava invasion limited to the North Eastern flank of Mount Etna was achieved. The simulations of the lava flows were also obtained with DOWNFLOW code, based on the steepest slope [RU Favalli]. Probability maps of invasion by lava flows constructed for the Mt. Etna using DOWNFLOW were based on: (i) the probability distribution of the future vents and (ii) the probability distribution of the length of future lava flows. The (E3) emulator [RU Fortuna] based on cellular nonlinear network (CNN) for the simulation of lava flows was also introduced. Two different applications were performed: the former was based on autowaves model, while in the latter the base equations of the emulator are replaced with the equation of the motion of a fluid. In framework of the previous INGV-DPC Etna Project, the treatment of the satellite imagery in order to recognize thermal anomalies (hot-spot detection) and to estimate the lava flow rate was also investigated [RUs Tramutoli and Lombardo]. In particular, it was developed an automatic system for the preprocessing and the computation of lava effusion rate using infrared satellite data [RU Del Negro]. The relationships between the thermal and dynamical aspects of lava flows, with the particular objective of understanding the formation, characteristics and evolution of lava tubes were also studied [RU Tallarico]: (i) the flow in a cylindrical tube with elliptic section, (ii) the temperature field and heat flow around elliptical tubes, (iii) the thermo elastic deformation associated to a lava tube, and (iv) the mechanism of formation of the crust, observing that it generates from the center of the channel, where the shear rate is low, to the lateral. The updating of the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) of the Mt. Etna in areas affected by the volcanic unrest was achieved through the elaboration of the aero-photogrammetric relieves and photogrammetric elaboration of historical data for the production of DEM pre and post eruption relative to the events , 1999 Bocca Nuova, Crateri Sommitali, 2001 flow from 2100 m a.s.l., flows on the S and NE flanks, Valle del Bove [RU Marsella]. At last, it was drawn the complete procedure for the reconstruction of the geometric and physical data (included associated errors), necessary for the validation of the lava flow simulations, developed for the 2001 Etna eruption - flow from 2100 m a.s.l. [RU Coltelli]. On the other side, results of the previous INGV-DPC Etna Project concern a better knowledge of the shallow plumbing system and structure of the volcano, through the location and properties of some shallow magma bodies. It is noteworthy also the identification of significant anomalies for earthquake and geochemical parameters, as well as the definition of the critical levels that define the transition between different stages of activity of the volcano, that was successfully by considering the volcanic tremor [RU Gresta]. This last result, actually allow us to track the migration of the tremor source(s) into the shallow part of the volcano body. Description of the activities Etna will undoubtedly erupt again. When it does, the first critical question that must be answered is: which areas are threatened with lava invasion? Once the threatened areas are established, we can address the second critical question: what people, property, and facilities are at risk? These questions can be answered by estimating the areas most likely 181

6 to be affected by eruptions on various parts of the volcano. On the base of our experience in both monitoring and modelling of the lava flow emplacement during past Etna eruptions, we plan to develop a methodology for computing such estimates on Etna based on the knowledge of eruptive vents and areas covered by past lava flow eruptions. We will divide the volcano into potential lava inundation zones and prepare detailed maps of these zones, which should be presented as layers of a GIS environment. The application of physical-mathematical models for simulating the lava flow paths will represent the central part of an extensive methodology for the hazard assessment at Etna. Hazard assessment will be performed by simulating a number of lava flows from a set of input data (from the record of past eruptions) in a meaningful range of variation and by adopting a high-resolution updated Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The effort to obtain a probabilistic lava flow hazard map of Etna will consist of following steps: a multivariate statistical analysis of the historical and pre-historical eruptions will provide: the likelihood of a lava vent at every position on Etna, the likelihood that vent will produce a specific type of lava flow; 2. random vent location by re-sampling of the vent density surface (Monte Carlo method), assignment of the most probable flow type, and generation of the required vent number; 3. parameterization of lava flow: creation of a library of parameter settings, corresponding to reasonable fits for each of the eruption used, by a series of trials using the numerical simulations to match the observed spatial distribution of lava; 4. simulation of the new eruptions by adopting the parameter settings that best simulate the nearest historical lava flows; 5. evaluation of the probability at any given point to be inundated by lava flows as the ratio between the number of times that point was overridden by lava and the total number of simulations. The simulation approach, to assess lava flow hazard, results in more robust and locally accurate analysis than a simple probabilistic approach and accounts for the influence of the actual topography on the path of future lava flows. Generating multiple simulations will allow us to evaluate the probability of lava inundating anywhere on the surface of the volcano. This probability will be captured as a hazard map, showing the relative frequency of lava flows that could potentially inundate specific areas. Such probability maps indicate the likely areas that could be affected but not which area will be covered by a specific eruption. The quantitative description of hazard in terms of vent opening probability will be also pursued. During recent years, new insights on the behaviour of Mt. Etna have been gained regarding the understanding of past eruptive activity, the dynamics of the volcano, the magma transfer processes, and the geophysical and geochemical monitoring. A number of expertises are now available in many fields of investigation. An effort for an effective integration of this knowledge, basically to consider information coming from monitoring activity (i.e. earthquake location, flank inflation/deflation, anomalies in other parameters) to be interpreted in terms of possible magma upraise/migration, activation of structures, etc., evolving to the occurrence of the vent opening in a given area of the volcano. The opinion of a team of experts has been already used in a Bayesian statistical procedure that accounts for any kind of available information both on real unrest of a volcano, and on

7 Project V3 Lava simulation of the Vesuvius unrest. The quality of both data and expertise by researchers will induce to test a retrospective BET application at Mt. Etna for the production of short term dynamic hazard map when critical levels of the volcano activity are reached. The problem of building scenarios through the straightforward simulation of lava flows during ongoing eruptions requires the development, validation and application of accurate and robust physical-mathematical models able to calculate their spatial and temporal evolution. Methods for modeling lava flows attempt to simulate how the complex interaction between flow dynamics and physical properties of lava lead to the final flow dimensions and morphology observed in the field. Existing and new models based on different physical formulations and approaches will be developed and applied to real cases in order to make model inter-comparisons and more robust forecasts of the phenomena. Models will also use, as much as possible, data deriving from the field observations, for model validation, and experimental data, for constitutive equations. We will focus on the integration of robust satellite techniques and advanced numerical models to develop an automatic monitoring system capable of timely identifying hot volcanic features in near real time, providing reliable estimation of the effusion rates and accurate simulation of lava flow space-time evolution in near real-time. To promptly detect volcanic hot spots, high temporal resolution satellite data will be used, implementing an innovative multi-temporal approach which has shown to be capable of strongly reducing false alarm occurrence. This approach, being potentially suitable to identify also anomalous thermal signals that may sometime precede impending eruptions, will offer a high contribute for early warning purposes. Satellite thermal anomaly maps will be used to provide early and accurate effusion rate estimations by means of standard and/or original algorithms. Effusion Rate products, together with precise and updated DEM, previously derived by using also the more recent high spatial resolution satellite stereo images, will be used as input parameters of advanced numerical modelling schemes in order to accurately simulate lava flow paths and to predict their space-time evolution in a timely manner. Finally, we will explore the possibility of slowing and diverting the lava flow by using artificial barriers to guide their course. Simulations of the lava flow paths after the designed intervention will be performed to predict the benefits of the action the related rewards and disadvantages respect to the natural path. The barriers will be modelled by modifying the pre-eruption topography to be used as input parameter of the simulations. Graphical presentation of the work packages and their interdependencies. 183

8 List of Research Units (RU): RU Scientific Responsible Organization Acronym RU-01* Ciro Del Negro INGV Sezione di Catania INGV-CT RU-02 Stefano Gresta University of Catania DSG UNICT-DSG RU-03 Gino Mirocle Crisci University of Calabria DST UNICAL-DST RU-04 Massimiliano Favalli INGV Sezione di Pisa INGV-PI RU-05 Luigi Fortuna University of Catania DIEES UNICT-DIEES RU-06 Valerio Lombardo INGV Centro Nazionale Terremoti INGV-CNT RU-07 Maria Marsella University of Roma La Sapienza DITS UNIRM-DITS RU-08 Giovanni Russo University of Catania DMI UNICT-DMI RU-09 Andrea Tallarico University of Bari DGG UNIBA-DGG RU-10 Valerio Tramutoli University of Basilicata- DIFA UNIBAS-DIFA *List of Teams (TM) of Research Unit 01: TEAM Scientific Responsible Organization Acronym TM-01A Mauro Coltelli INGV - Sezione di Catania INGV-CT TM-01B Fabrizio Ferrucci University of Calabria DST UNICAL-DST TM-01C Marco Neri INGV Sezione di Catania INGV-CT TM-01D Harry Pinkerton University of Lancaster (UK) UNILAN-UK TM-01E Danilo Reitano INGV Sezione di Catania INGV-CT TM-01F Alexis Herault INGV - Sezione di Catania INGV-CT TM-01G Annamaria Vicari INGV - Sezione di Catania INGV-CT 184

9 Project V3 Lava Description of Tasks LAVA relies upon the integration of advanced numerical models with robust satellite techniques for dynamic hazard assessment and mitigation. The project will develop along five Tasks: Task 1. Guide Line and Protocols Data Base and digital maps in GIS architecture to integrate geological, geophysical and geochemical data. Development of protocols and scenarios to manage lava flow hazard. Feasibility study to transfer results at Centro Funzionale of Department of Civil Protection (DPC). Task 2. Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques Development of physicalmathematical models for lava flow simulations. Development of techniques based on satellite data for collecting parameters to be input into lava flow simulators. Task 3. Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map Definition of guidelines to develop lava flow invasion hazard maps and their dynamic update. Eruption history and features of the lava flow as a constraint on hazard simulation. Lava flow invasion hazard maps. Task 4. Vent Opening Probability Map Mid and short term probability map of eruptive fracture opening using terrestrial and satellite data. Methodologies for the dynamic updating of hazard maps based on observable data. Tests on recent eruptive events. Task 5. Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation Lava flow simulations driven by infrared satellite data from active lava flows. Protocols for the real-time prediction of lava flow paths for planning emergency response. Barrier design for volcano hazard mitigation. For each Task several Working Packages (WP) have been identified to answer to the request of the project. A sketch description of each Task will be presented in the next pages together with a list of expected deliverables (according to the activities planned by each Research Unit) and the inter-connections between them. A detailed description of the scientific activities is left to the forms compiled by the Research Units. To assume an efficient management of this consortium and to build a good communication network, all Tasks will be directly managed by two coordinators. Project work breakdown structure. 185

10 TASK 1. GUIDELINES AND PROTOCOLS RU and TM Partecipating RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli, TM Ferrucci, TM Neri, TM Pinkerton, TM Reitano, TM Herault, TM Vicari, RU Gresta, RU Crisci, RU Favalli, RU Fortuna, RU Lombardo, RU Marsella, RU Russo, RU Tallarico, RU Tramutoli Objectives Definition of guidelines to develop lava flow invasion hazard maps and their dynamic update. Description of the activity From our experience in the volcano-specific work we will synthesize new methodologies, protocols, procedures and scenarios to evaluate and manage lava flow hazards. The improvement of protocols for forecasting volcanic threat and planning damage reduction efforts will be used to prepare a guide on prevention and mitigation of volcanic crisis, to be provided to local governments and civil protection authorities. Work-Packages WP Development of internal and public Web portal An internal and public Web portal will be created by the coordinators at the beginning of the project. All general information concerning the projects will be posted in this site. The lava flow hazard maps of Etna volcano, developed on an open source platform, will be transferred as tools for territorial planning and hazard mapping to end users. Role of participants Coordinators: creation of the Web portal uploaded of all general information. The other Participants: contribution with ideas, information and data. WP 1.2 Guide lines for the hazard map and methods for its dynamic update Elaboration of guidelines on how the hazard map may be organized to be more effective, including elaboration of methods for its dynamic update by considering time variations of observations and expert opinions. Role of participants Coordinators and the other Participants: transferring of new methodologies, hazard criteria, protocols, procedures and scenarios to evaluate and manage volcanic hazard to end users. WP 1.3 Feasibility study to realize a DPC interface Definition of procedures and protocols to transfer results coming from Task 3, Task 4, and Task 5 to DPC about: lateral vents opening probability for different sectors of the volcanoes, localization of the eruptive vents, lava effusion rate measurements, possible lava flow paths evaluation, lava movement speed evaluation, definition of the most exposed villages, time the lava flow needs to reach settled areas, time and kind of intervention. Role of participants Coordinators and the other Participants: transferring of new methodologies, hazard criteria, protocols, procedures and scenarios to evaluate and manage volcanic hazard to end users. 186

11 Project V3 Lava Deliverables D1.1a Web site (month 3, update monthly). D1.1b Lava flow hazard map on an open source GIS. D1.2a Report on lava flow risk evaluation criteria. D1.2b Guidelines on prevision, prevention and mitigation of volcanic hazard. D1.3a Report on procedures to manage lava flow hazard. D1.3b Protocols on hazard management for the end-users. TASK 2. NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS AND SATELLITE TECHNIQUES RU and TM Partecipating RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Pinkerton, TM Reitano, TM Herault, TM Vicari, RU Crisci, RU Favalli, RU Fortuna, RU Lombardo, RU Russo, RU Tallarico, RU Tramutoli Objectives Development of physical-mathematical models for forecasting lava flow paths and improvement of satellite techniques to drive flow simulations. Description of the activity We will develop innovative computer codes able to include much of the physical parameterization of lava flows in terms of viscosity, yield strength, and density and bring the goal of robust forecasting closer. The code performance will be assessed by a sensitivity analysis on the input parameters, carried out by simulating actual lava flows having a well known eruptive history. Moreover, techniques capable of measuring effusion rates during an eruption are of particular value since accurate effusion rate estimates are important in hazard prediction, warning, and mitigation. To this end, we will develop techniques that use thermal infrared satellite data to estimate the instantaneous lava flow output by a vent throughout eruptions. These time-varying effusion rates will be used to drive lava flow simulations calculated by physical-mathematical models that can take into account the way in which effusion rate changes during an eruption and how this influences the spread of lava as a function of time. Work-Packages: WP 2.1 Physical and chemical parameterization of flow behavior Collection of the available physical and chemical data for all the lava flow eruptions taken into account. Conversion of laboratory-derived petrological data into admissible rheological parameter fields. Evaluation of the input parameters to be used for accurate simulations of the observed final flow extent. Role of participants TM Coltelli: collection of the available physical and chemical data for lava flow eruptions of Etna volcano; input parameter evaluation and library of simulator parameters creation. RU Tallarico and TM Pinkerton: laboratory- and field-derived lava rheology analysis and rheological modelling; input parameter evaluation and library of simulator parameters creation. WP 2.2 Development of thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows Quantitative studies on the dynamics of lava flows in order to provide the physical constrains necessary to develop a method to predict the lava flows path. Improvement of the reliability of the dynamical models of lava flows considering non-linear rheologies. 187

12 The latest multicomponent models for lava viscosity will be included in the numerical codes. Role of participants RU Tallarico and TM Pinkerton: experimental data concerning thermal properties of lava. RU Russo and RU Tallarico: Dynamical models with non linear rheology. Models for crust formation. WP 2.3 Development of techniques for hot-spot detection Development and validation up to a pre-operative level of robust satellite techniques for real-time detection and monitoring of hot spots related to volcanic eruptions. Role of participants RU Tramutoli, RU Fortuna, TM Vicari, and RU Lombardo: improved algorithms for hot spots detection based on MODIS and AVHRR sensors TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, and RU Del Negro: improved algorithms for hot spots detection based on SEVIRI and MODIS sensors. WP Development of techniques for lava effusion rate measurements Development and validation up to a pre-operative level of robust satellite techniques for near real-time effusion rate lava flow estimations. Role of participants RU Tramutoli, RU Del Negro, RU Tallarico, RU Fortuna and RU Lombardo: improved algorithms for measurements of effusion rate based on MODIS and AVHRR sensors RU Ferrucci and RU Del Negro: improved algorithms for hot spots detection based on SEVIRI and MODIS sensors. WP 2.5 Development of techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping Definition of an innovative approach for rapid generation Digital Elevation Model over area where volcano unrest is occurring. Role of participants RU Lombardo, RU Del Negro: Study of a methodology for post-event DEM correction starting from a pre-event DEM and jointly using all the different sensors data available over the area WP 2.6 Development of numerical models for lava flow simulations Existing and new models based on different physical formulations and approaches will be developed and applied to real cases in order to make model inter-comparisons and more robust forecasts of the phenomena. Models will also use, as much as possible, data deriving from the field observations, for model validation, and experimental data, for constitutive equations. Role of participants RU Del Negro, RU Russo, RU Fortuna, TM Herault, and TM Vicari: development of computer coded, code performance and sensitivity analyses. RU Del Negro, TM Vicari, TM Herault, and TM Coltelli: testing different ways to assimilate field observations into the simulation code. RU Del Negro, RU Fortuna, RU Russo, TM Herault, TM Vicari: sensitivity analyses on topographic data. 188

13 Project V3 Lava Deliverables D2.1 - Database of chemical and physical parameters to fit the observed geometrical features of selected eruptions. D2.2 Report on thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows. D2.3 Report on techniques for hot-spot detection. D2.4 Report on techniques for lava effusion rate measurements. D2.5 Report on techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping. D2.6a Report on the numerical simulation techniques adopted for forecast and probabilistic hazard assessment. D2.6b Report on sensitivity analysis of the code to the input parameters. D2.6c Report on how best to assimilate observational data into simulations. TASK 3. LAVA FLOW INVASION HAZARD MAP RU and TM Partecipating RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli, TM Neri, TM Pinkerton, TM Reitano, TM Herault, TM Vicari, RU Crisci, RU Favalli, RU Fortuna, RU Russo Objectives Realization of lava flow invasion hazard maps. Lava flow hazard map for Etna volcano will be implemented on GIS environment by means of a statistical analysis of the simulated lava-flow eruptions obtained by numerical modelling of long- and short-term forecasts of the evolution of volcanic phenomena. Description of the activity The probabilistic long-term hazard assessment will be based on the positioning of a fixed number of vents, through a multivariate statistical analysis on past eruptions. Eruption history and features of the lava flow past will be a constraint on hazard simulation. The probabilistic short-term hazard assessment will be based on the evaluation of the most probable eruption expected in next period (years tens of years). The library of input chemical and physical parameters will allow to set the eruption characteristics to be assigned to the selected vents. Monte Carlo-derived ensemble simulations will be used to evaluate long-term lava flow hazard as the probability of invasion of every point that is the ratio between the number of overruns and the total number of simulations. This probability map will define the relative lava flow hazards over the whole volcano. Work-Packages WP 3.1 Eruption history as a constraint on hazard simulation Geo-Database of the features of the lava flow eruption of the last 4 century. Use of well known lava flow eruptions for Etna volcano from literature and non-published data available at the INGV-CT to constrain general volcano behaviour: duration, volume, effusion rate trend, rheological quality of the lava flow eruptions. Role of participants TM Coltelli and TM Neri: space-temporal statistical analysis of the lava flow eruptions to generate classes and probability distribution functions that will act as specific constraints to the probabilistic generation of simulation ensembles. 189

14 WP 3.2 Topographic data quality Collection of the available topographic data for all the studied volcanic areas. Analysis of the topographic data quality (precision and accuracy). Analysis of the effect of that quality on the lava flow simulations. Role of participants TM Coltelli: collection of the available Etna topographic data, analysis of their influence on lava flow simulations. RU Marsella and Favalli: topographic data requirement and quality assessment for numerical simulations; analysis of their influence on lava flow simulations. WP 3.3 GIS database developing for hazard map The already available GIS of the geological map of Etna will be extended to include the physical and chemical information of the historical lava flow eruptions revised by both recent studies and the new historical catalogue of the eruptions performed by INGV-CT. Geometrical data obtained by topographic techniques will also be included. In order to anticipate areas that could be overrun by lava from different source regions, a layer of the new GIS will be realized to report the identified lava flow inundation zones on the base of both new high-resolution geological data and the simulated lava-flow eruptions obtained by numerical modelling of long- and short-term forecasts of the evolution of volcanic phenomena. The areas with highest probability of lava invasion around several villages in the Etnean region will be identified. Role of participants RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli, and TM Reitano: updating of the GIS of Etna geological map to include physical, chemical and geometrical parameters of the historical lava flows; introducing new layers for lava inundation zoning. WP 3.4: Probabilistic lava flow simulations for long-term volcanic hazard assessment The probabilistic long-term hazard assessment will be based on the catalogue of past eruptions and on the positioning of a fixed number of vents, through a multivariate statistical analysis. The database and the considerations reported will allow to set up the eruption characteristics to be assigned to the selected vents. Role of participants RU Del Negro, RU Crisci and RU Favalli: running of a great number of lava flow simulations, whose characteristics will be selected by a statistical analysis of past events, to asses long-term hazard. RU Del Negro, TM Herault, TM Vicari, TM Coltelli, and RU Russo: statistical analysis of past events to select the characteristics of simulated lava flows. WP 3.5: Probabilistic lava flow simulations for short-term volcanic hazard assessment The probabilistic short-term hazard assessment will be based on the evaluation of the most probable eruption expected in next period (years tens of years) and on the positioning of a fixed number of vents, through a multivariate statistical analysis. Role of participants RU Del Negro, RU Crisci and RU Favalli: short-term hazard assessment running a number of lava flow simulations close to the most probable eruption expected in next period. RU Del Negro TM Herault, TM Vicari, TM Coltelli, and TM Fortuna: statistical analysis of recent events to select the characteristics of simulated lava flows. 190

15 Project V3 Lava WP 3.6 Statistic analysis of the simulation results and implementation of the hazard map The long-term hazard map will show the probability of invasion of every point, defined as the ratio between the number of overruns and the total number of simulations. This map will define the total area that could potentially be affected but not which area will be covered by a specific eruption. Role of participants RU Del Negro, RU Russo, RU Fortuna, TM Herault, TM Vicari and TM Coltelli: analysis of simulation results to provide the long- and short-term hazard map. RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli and TM Reitano: implementation of the GIS database of Etna hazard map. Deliverables: D3.1 Past eruptions features, including geological, physical chemical and geometrical data, structured as GIS layers. D3.2a Collection of all the available topographic data on Etna volcano which satisfy the accuracy requirements for the simulations. D3.2b Report on topographic data collected including quality assessment. D3.3 Generation of classes and probability distribution functions, by a space-temporal statistical analysis of the eruptions, to constrain the probabilistic generation of simulation ensembles. D3.4 Report on the result of the long-term volcanic hazard assessment. D3.5 Report on the result of the short-term volcanic hazard assessment. D3.6 GIS database of Etna lava flow hazard map. TASK 4. VENT OPENING PROBABILITY MAP RU and TM Partecipating RU Gresta, TM Neri, TM Reitano, RU Del Negro, RU Russo Objectives Definition of a medium term hazard map of the vent opening probability. Development of new methodologies to update in time the short term probability hazard map. Description of the activity Realization of a probabilistic assessment of vent location mainly based on seismological (earthquakes and tremor) and volcanological data, integrated with other geophysical and geochemical data, in co-operation with expert researchers by INGV (Roma, Bologna, Catania and Palermo). Work-Packages WP 4.1 Database in GIS architecture (in co-operation with Project V4-Flank) A huge amount of data and information need to be analyzed and combined in order to better investigate the direct and derived volcanic hazards. All data available in the project together with lava flow simulations and satellite images will be transformed and unified in a coherent way to allow integration into a geographic information system (GIS). A completely new, interactive, and user-friendly software tool will be developed as a webbased multimedia platform. Collection of geophysical, volcanological and geochemical 191

16 data acquired at Etna from 1996 to The database will be implemented with the aim of ensure the maximum compatibility with the WOVOdat standard. Role of participants TM Reitano and RU Del Negro: organization of the database, collection of validated data from surveys and previous monitoring systems operating on the volcano. RU Gresta and TM Neri: providing seismological, geophysical, volcanological, geochemical data in hard and/or elaborated versions. WP 4.2 Medium term probability map for the opening of eruptive fractures. Definition of the features of structural trends; distribution of vents, fractures and fissure. Analysis of the eruptive history of the volcano. Test for the stability and choice of the reference medium term hazard map. Role of participants RU Gresta and TM Neri: analysis and interpretation of geo-structural and volcanological data in order to produce the reference medium term hazard map. WP 4.3 Time update of the probability map for the opening of eruptive fractures. Analysis of data coming from WP4.1. Choice of the significant benchmarks for the retrospective analysis of the state of the volcano. Application of BET. Procedures to test the weight of the single input parameters. Test for the stability of results by changing input parameters and weight of the expert opinion. Choice of the reference medium term hazard map. Role of participants RU Gresta, TM Neri, and RU Russo: analysis of seismological, geophysical, volcanological, geochemical data referring to several pre-eruptive periods (basically during the time span ). Application of BET to update the probability map. Deliverables D4.1 Data base D4.2a Reference hazard map for vent opening probability D4.2b Test for the stability D4.3a Dynamic maps of the hazard of opening vents. D4.3b Test on the different weights for parameters and expert opinions D4.3c Validation of BET. TASK 5. SCENARIO FORECAST AND HAZARD MITIGATION RU and TM Partecipating RU Del Negro, TM Coltelli, TM Ferrucci, TM Herault, TM Vicari, RU Crisci, RU Favalli, RU Fortuna, RU Lombardo, RU Marsella, RU Tramutoli Objectives Lava flow simulations driven by infrared satellite data of an ongoing effusive eruption. Protocols for the real-time prediction of lava flow paths for planning emergency response. Barrier design for volcano hazard mitigation. 192

17 Project V3 Lava Description of the activity The simulation of an ongoing effusive eruption must be based on the estimation of all the observable data (position of flow source, area, thickness, channel speed, extrusion rate, front advance and temperature) using ground-based and satellite-borne techniques. This data can then be used to both initialize flow simulations and to attempt near real-time correction of these simulations via assimilation of new observations. The simulation of flow emplacement will start from the reproduction of the actual lava extent, and then it will be carried on through the implementation of a number of possible evolution scenarios. Such simulations could foresee inhabited areas or structures to be threatened by a lava flow and they may be adopted to check the results of mitigatory actions, such as building up of earth barriers or excavation of artificial channels. These operations can be easily modelled after an opportune modification of the volcano topography. Work-Packages WP 5.1 Hot-spot detection in near real-time Near real-time detection and monitoring of thermal anomalies related to volcanic eruptions from thermal infrared satellite imagery. Completely automated generation of satellite data based products. Role of participants RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, RU Lombardo, RU Tramutoli: Implementation and test of automated processing chain for satellite product generation. RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, RU Lombardo, RU Tramutoli: Design, implementation and test of interfaces for the integration of satellite based products into the DPC operational system. WP 5.2 Near real-time data collection of critical lava-flow emplacement parameters Observations of flow source, area, thickness, channel speed, front advance and temperature using ground-based, air-borne and satellite-borne techniques. Conversion of these specific observations in an assimilation scheme that will use them to modify/implement the forward flow simulations. Role of participants TM Coltelli: study of what observations are available and best suited for assimilation into the simulations; measurements of syn-eruptive data during an Etna eruption; conversion of specific observations in an assimilation scheme to implement the forward flow simulations. RU Marsella: measurements of syn-eruptive data during an Etna eruption by topographic techniques. RU Tallarico and TM Pinkerton: conversion of rheological observations in input data for lava flow simulation. WP 5.3 Effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery Near real-time satellite-based measurements of effusion rate during on-going eruptions. Automated system for the acquisition/ processing/post-processing/delivery of satellite data. Role of participants RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, RU Lombardo, RU Tramutoli: Implementation and test of automated processing chain for satellite product generation. RU Del Negro, TM Ferrucci, TM Vicari, RU Lombardo, RU Tramutoli: Design, implementation and test of interfaces for the integration of satellite based products into the DPC operational system. 193

18 WP 5.4 Lava flow paths forecasting during an eruption Lava flow emplacement during an ongoing eruption will be forecasted by simulations starting from the actual lava extent. A number of possible evolution scenarios should be implemented for assessing its progress. Role of participants RU Del Negro, TM Herault, TM Vicari, RU Crisci, RU Favalli: definition of possible eruption scenarios and simulation of the ongoing eruption. RU Del Negro: definition of possible environment scenarios. WP 5.5 Lava flow simulations including diversion barriers during an eruption The simulations carried out during an ongoing eruption could foresee inhabited areas or structures to be threatened by a lava flow. In such cases simulations may check the results of mitigatory actions such as building up of earth barriers or excavation of artificial channels. Such operation can be easily simulated after an opportune modification of the volcano topography. Planning the protection of some selected sensitive objectives that were really threatened during recent Etna eruptions. Role of participants TM Coltelli, TM Herault, TM Vicari: definition of mitigatory actions on the ongoing eruption and their simulation. RU Marsella: make opportune modifications of the volcano topography for planning of mitigatory actions on the ongoing eruption. RU Del Negro: management of mitigatory actions on the ongoing eruption. Deliverables D5.1a - Hot-spot detection in near real time from satellite data. D5.2a - Report on suitable observational data sources, types and quality. D5.2b - Database of all the available syn-eruptive data of an ongoing eruption (depending on the eruption). D5.3 Effusion rate measurements in near real time from satellite data. D5.4 - Report on the simulation of different scenarios of an ongoing eruption (depending on the eruption). D5.5a - Report on the simulation of different scenarios of an ongoing eruption by taking into account mitigatory actions (depending on the eruption). D5.5b - Planning, simulating and analysis of test cases of the protection of selected sensitive objectives at Etna. 194

19 Project V3 Lava Flow chart of project achievements and products 195

20 List of deliverables General 1. Data used in the project, organized in a database. 2. Guidelines for the realization of lava flow invasion hazard maps and their dynamic update. 3. Probability map of opening of new fractures and eruptive vents on a short and medium period, realized by dynamic update methodologies. 4. Hazard map for invasion of lava flows, realized using dynamic update methodology. 5. Tests of some selected eruptions for the vent opening probability maps, for the lava flow invasion hazard maps, and for the methodology for the dynamic update. 6. Feasibility study to transfer results at Centro Funzionale of Dept. of Civil Protection (DPC). Task 1. Guide Line and Protocols D1.1a Web site (month 3, update monthly). D1.1b Lava flow hazard map on an open source GIS. D1.2a Report on lava flow risk evaluation criteria. D1.2b Guidelines on prevision, prevention and mitigation of volcanic hazard. D1.3a Report on procedures to manage lava flow hazard. D1.3b Protocols on hazard management for the end-users. Task 2. Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques D2.1 - Database of chemical and physical parameters of selected eruptions. D2.2 Report on thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows. D2.3 Report on techniques for hot-spot detection. D2.4 Report on techniques for lava effusion rate measurements. D2.5 Report on techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping. D2.6a Report on numerical simulation techniques adopted for forecast and probabilistic hazard assessment. D2.6b Report on sensitivity analysis of the code to the input parameters. D2.6c Report on how best to assimilate observational data into simulations. Task 3. Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map D3.1 Past eruptions features, including geological, physical chemical and geometrical data, structured as GIS layers. D3.2a Collection of all the available topographic data on Etna volcano which satisfy the accuracy requirements for the simulations. D3.2b Report on topographic data collected including quality assessment. D3.3 Generation of classes and probability distribution functions, by a space-temporal statistical analysis of the eruptions, to constrain the probabilistic generation of simulation ensembles. D3.4 Report on the result of the long-term volcanic hazard assessment. D3.5 Report on the result of the short-term volcanic hazard assessment. D3.6 GIS database of Etna lava flow hazard map. Task 4. Vent Opening Probability Map D4.1 Data base D4.2a Reference hazard map for vent opening probability D4.2b Test for the stability D4.3a Dynamic maps of the hazard of opening vents. 196

21 Project V3 Lava D4.3b Test on the different weights for parameters and expert opinions D4.3c Validation of BET. Task 5. Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation D5.1a - Hot-spot detection in near real time from satellite data. D5.2a - Report on suitable observational data sources, types and quality. D5.2b - Database of all the available syn-eruptive data of an ongoing eruption. D5.3 Effusion rate measurements in near real time from satellite data. D5.4 - Report on the simulation of different scenarios of an ongoing eruption. D5.5a - Report on the simulation of different scenarios of an ongoing eruption by taking into account mitigatory actions (depending on the eruption). D5.5b - Planning, simulating and analysis of test cases of the protection of selected sensitive objectives at Etna. 197

22 198 Project implementation Main project outputs and milestones MS1 (Month 7): Lava-flow numerical simulation codes, satellite-based techniques and specifications of data to run the model are provided. MS2 (Month 13; Mid term assessment): Lava-flow hazard map and vent opening probability map development are addressed. Lava diversion barrier strategies are essentially defined. Evaluating of mid-term results to redefine (if necessary) the work plan for the remaining part of the contract. MS3 (Month 20): Lava-flow hazard maps and vent opening probability maps for the Etna volcano are provided. MS4 (Month 26; at the end of the project): Report on the management of lava flow hazards and the feasibility study for the realization of an interface to transfer results at Centro Funzionale of Department of Civil Protection (DPC) are provided. Project reports To keep the project effective from the start, the project management plan will be elaborated in detail before the start of the project. The project management plan includes guidelines for deliverables, presentation and reporting standards, deadlines. The coordinators will assemble and control the deliverables, supervise the evolving project results at each six month milestone. Project reports will be produced as follows: Management report: at the end of year 1 and 2 the Project Coordinators will produce a management report that will include a description of progress according to the work-plan. Scientific report: at the end of year 1 and 2 the Project Coordinators will compile (from task contributions) a comprehensive project report on the results and activities of all the participants At the end of the project, a Final report will be submitted to the Evaluation Committee, according to guidelines given at the contract negotiation stage. This report will include a detailed summary of the scientific achievements of the project. A list of scientific publications on the results of the project will be included. Project meetings On whole project, Project meetings will be held twice during each project year to discuss research and planning. The main objectives of these meetings will be to present an update of the research to the entire consortium. The RU Leaders (or members of individual teams when necessary) will present the results, and this will be followed by a workshop style session and discussion. The coordinators will be responsible for administrative arrangements of meetings. This is a multidisciplinary project and it is not expected that all partners will be adequately aware of the latest developments in all the relevant fields. To help overcome this and to foster more scientific cohesion, we will commence the Kick-off meeting with a one day workshop. The objective of this workshop will be to inform participants about the basic principles behind and state of the art in all disciplines involved in the project. We are aware that some points of V3 LAVA and V4 FLANK projects are overlapping. Some ones are technical aspects as the common use of same data bases, digital elevation models, etc. Other ones are complementary activities aimed at defining the general knowledge of volcano dynamics. For these reasons, we intend to hold our Kick-off meeting in conjunction with V4 FLANK project, and planned a continuous exchange of data and information through the whole duration of the two projects.

23 Project V3 Lava Consortium as a whole This project gathers the efforts of 11 Research Units (RUs), belonging to 7 Departments of Italian Universities and 4 INGV Sections. The experience and expertise of the consortium spans the entire range of multidisciplinary tasks addressed in LAVA. The partnership represents an optimal mix of interdisciplinary skills, scientific both academic and application oriented ones, the latter in sense of volcano monitoring, and Civil Protection authority. All the groups are carrying out leading edge research in their area of expertise. The consortium was built with an eye on the complementary character of the expertise and the interdisciplinary nature of the project. We confide that this consortium is well-balanced in relation to the objectives of the project. Most teams have already worked together within previous DPC programmes on projects involving volcanic problems. This makes the team confident of an effective and efficient working relationship. Resources to be committed Most partners will recruit postdoctoral fellows directly funded through the project, and the requested budget takes these into account. Considering that all groups are carrying out leading edge research on hazard assessment and management of volcanic threats, they will provide a high quality training environment for the young researchers (PhD students and post doctoral fellows) and experts on risk management who will be employed in the project. The Management activities costs have been requested only by the project coordinators. 199

24 TABLE MAN/MONTHS Research Unit Institution Principal Responsible Task 1 Tas k 2 Tas k 3 Tas k 4 Tas k 5 Personmonths cofunded Personmonths requested RU-01* INGV- CT @ 121 RU-02 UNICT * RU-03 UNICAL- @ 46 RU-04 @ 23 1 RU-05 UNICT- 30 RU * RU-07 UNIRM- @ 25 RU-08 UNICT- 30 RU-09 UNIBA- 44 RU-10 UNIBAS- 56 Total *Requested within the present Agreement, but not included within the Project cost statement *Teams of Research Unit 01 Team Institution Principal Responsible Tas k 1 Tas k 2 Tas k 3 Tas k 4 Tas k 5 Personmonths cofunded Personmonths requested Coord. INGV- CT @ 10 TM-01A INGV- @ 10 TM-01B UNICAL- 2 TM-01C INGV- 8 TM-01D UNILAN- 3 TM-01E INGV- 26 TM-01F INGV- @ 31 TM-01G INGV- @ 31 Total

25 Project V3 Lava Project V3 LAVA. Financial Plan for the First Phase (Euros). Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) ) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo , ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 0, ,00 Project V3 LAVA. Financial Plan for the Second Phase (Euros). Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) ) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo , ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 0, ,00 201

26 Project V3 LAVA. Total Financial Plan, First + Second Phase (Euros). Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) ) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo , ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 0, ,00 202

27 Project V3 Lava Project V3 LAVA. Table RU s and related funding request. N. RU Istituz. Resp UR Personale Missioni Costi amministrativi Studi,ricerche e prestazioni professionali Servizi Materiale durevole e di consumo Spese indirette 1 st 2 nd 1 st 2 nd 1 st 2 nd 1 st 2 nd 1 st 2 nd 1 st 2 nd 1 st 2 nd phase phase phase phase phase phase phase phase phase phase phase phase phase phase RU-1 INGV-CT Del Negro RU-2 UNI-CT Gresta RU-3 UNI-CAL Crisci RU-4 INGV-PI Favalli RU-5 UNI-CT Fortuna RU-6 INGV-CNT Lombardo RU-7 UNI-RM1 Marsella RU-8 UNI-CT Russo RU-9 UNI-BA Tallarico RU- 10 UNI-BAS Tramutoli TOTAL GRAND TOTAL:

28 *Teams of Research Unit 01 1) Spese di personale 2) Spese per missioni 3) Costi amministr. (solo per Coord. di Progetto) 4) Spese studi e ricerche e prestazioni professionali 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e consumo 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) Team Phase a Phase b Phase a Phase b Phase a Phase b Phase a Phase b Phase a Phase b Phase a Phase b Phase a Phase b Coord TM-01A TM-01B TM-01C TM-01D TM-01E TM-01F TM-01G Sub-total

29 Project V3 Lava PROJECT V3 LAVA Description of Research Units 205

30 206

31 Project V3 Lava RU V3/01 Project V3 - LAVA Realization of the lava flow invasion hazard map at Mt Etna and methods for its dynamic update Scientific Responsible: Ciro Del Negro, Senior researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Sezione di Catania, Piazza Roma 2, Catania, [email protected], tel: , fax: RU Composition: Scientific Resp. Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Ciro Del Negro Senior researcher INGV-CT 5 5 Participants Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Team 01A Mauro Coltelli * Senior INGV-CT 2 2 researcher Stefano Branca Researcher INGV-CT 3 3 Cristina Proietti Contract Res. INGV-CT 0 0 Emanuela De Beni Fellow INGV-CT 0 0 Team 01B Fabrizio Ferrucci * Associate Professor Università della Calabria 1 1 Team 01C Neri Marco * Researcher INGV-CT 1 1 Valerio Acocella Researcher UniRM3 1 1 Boris Behncke Contract Res. INGV-RM 0 0 Salvatore Researcher INGV-CT 1 1 Giammanco Mazzarini Researcher INGV-PI 0 0 Francesco Derek Rust Senior Res. Brunel Univ. 1 1 Team 01D Harry Pinkerton * Full Professor Lancaster 1 1 Univ. Mike James Research Fellow Lancaster Univ Team 01E Danilo Reitano * Technologist INGV-CT 3 3 Marcello Dagostino CTER INGV-CT 2 2 Orazio Torrisi CTER INGV-CT 2 2 Fabrizio Pistagna Fellow PON COMETA 0 6 Antonino Drago Fellow PON COMETA 0 6 Silvia Cariolo CoCoPro PON COMETA 0 Gaetano Russo CoCoPro PON COMETA 0 Sebastiano Lizzio CoCoPro PON COMETA 0 Team 01F Alexis Herault * Research Fellow INGV-CT

32 Gilda Currenti Researcher INGV-CT 0 0 Rosalba Napoli Researcher INGV-CT 3 3 Scandura Danila PhD student INGV-CT 0 6 Budetta Gennaro Director of Res. INGV-CT 3 3 Salvatore Giudice PhD student INGV-CT 7 0 Team 01G Annamaria Vicari * Researcher INGV-CT 2 2 Alessia Ciraudo Post-doc student INGV-CT 0 3 Gaetana Ganci Post-doc student INGV-CT 3 3 Filippo Greco Technologist INGV-CT 3 3 Karabiber Fethullah PhD student University of 3 3 Istanbul Antonino Sicali CTER INGV-CT 3 3 *Scientific responsible of the Team Description of Activity WP 1.2 Guide lines for the hazard map and methods for its dynamic update WP 1.3 Feasibility study to realize a DPC interface From our experience in the volcano-specific work we will synthesize new methodologies, protocols, procedures and scenarios to evaluate and manage lava flow hazards. The improvement of protocols for forecasting volcanic threat and planning damage reduction efforts will be used to prepare a guide on prevention and mitigation of volcanic crisis, to be provided to local governments and civil protection authorities. Team 01A Mauro Coltelli WP 3.1 Eruption history as a constraint on hazard simulation In order to identify the areas with the highest probability of source vents and to analyse the typical physical features (duration, volume, effusion rate trend, rheological quality) of the lava flow eruptions occurring in that areas. A zoning, on the basis of historical, prehistoric and geological records, is necessary. These areas will be assumed as sources of lava flows to be simulated, having an uniform distribution inside, and taking into account the overall probability density distribution. The key information to carry out this work comes from the new geological map of Etna volcano and the recent revision of the catalogue of the historical eruptions of Etna (Branca et al., 2004a; 2004b; Branca and Del Carlo, 2004, 2005). Volcanics erupted during the past 15 ka cover about the 85% of the volcano edifice. Geological mapping of each recognized lava flow, belonging to a single eruptive event, was performed. The stratigraphic relationship between each lava flow and the Holocene tephrostratigraphic marker beds (Coltelli et al., 2000) allows to define the chronological evolution of the eruptive activity in this time span. This methodological approach permitted the detailed reconstruction of the volcanic history of the past 4 ka when eruptive activity has strongly increased in both explosive and effusive phenomena. Tephrostratigraphic and geological data have evidenced that he number of the eruptions has increased fourfold in the last 4 ka in comparison to that occurred in the 10 ka before (Del Carlo et al., 2004; Branca et al., 2004). In particular, about 100 flank lava-flow eruptions for millennium occurred in the last 4 ka (Branca et al., 2004). Data of the historic eruptions analysis is in agreement with this reconstruction; in fact 54 flank eruptions occurred in the period (Branca and Del Carlo, 2005), confirming that the high eruption rate period, started 4 ka ago, is still ongoing. The vent zoning and the reconstruction of the main features of the past Etna s lava flow eruptions, are very time and personnel consuming works. Consequently we propose to start 208

33 Project V3 Lava with an application of the method to the last four centuries including corrective factors to the less frequent eruption, in particular which occurred on the lower slopes, as derived from the qualitative analysis of the periods AD and 0 AD - 2 ka BC data, that cover the most representative period for the Etna long term eruptive behaviour (Coltelli et al., 2000; Branca et al. 2004). WP 3.4 Probabilistic lava flow simulations for long-term volcanic hazard assessment WP 3.5 Probabilistic lava flow simulations for short-term volcanic hazard assessment WP 3.6 Statistic analysis of the simulation results and implementation of the hazard map The effort to obtain a probabilistic lava flow hazard map of Etna will follow the way traced by a pioneer work of Wadge et al. (1994). The proposed work consists of: 1. A multivariate statistical analysis of the 1600 to present (including corrective factors extracted by the last 4 ka record) eruptions to provide the likelihood of a lava vent at every (x,y) position on Etna, the likelihood that vent will produce a specific type of lava flow. 2. Random vent location by resampling of the vent density surface (Monte Carlo method), assignment of the most probable flow type, and generation of the required vent number. 3. Parameterization of lava flow: creation of a library of parameter settings, corresponding to reasonable fits for each of the eruption used, by a series of trials using the numerical simulations to match the observed spatial distribution of lava. 4. Simulation of the new eruptions by adopting the parameter settings that best simulate the nearest historical lava flows. 5. Evaluation of the probability at any given point to be inundated by lava flows as the ratio between the number of times that point was overridden by lava and the total number of simulations. Team 01B Fabrizio Ferrucci WP 5.1 Hot-spot detection in near real-time WP 5.3 Effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery Having assigned the lava rheology and the model terrain, the effusion rate (m 3 /s) is the main controlling factor of behaviour, travelled distance and final dimensions of flows: the control or prediction of volumes, conversely, heavily relies upon vesicularity or porosity. It has been shown that rapidly varying effusion rates during eruptions - heavily influencing lava spreading, especially when peak effusion rates are high (over m 3 /s) - can be efficiently dealt with by high repetition rate, more than by high resolution thermal remote sensed analysis. This held true for radiometers AVHRR (in spite of the dynamic range of channels unsuited to volcano observation) and MODIS, and was recently demonstrated to hold true also for SEVIRI, onboard the geosynchronous platform MSG2. In LAVA, effusion rates will be estimated using high-temporal/high-spectral/low-spatial resolution observation allowed by multispectral payload SEVIRI, whose 15-minute refresh capacity is ideally fitting the needs for the near-real-time prediction of lava flows, based on straightforward modelling. Scientific and technological goals for the proposed activity in LAVA, are: demonstration of the MSG-SEVIRI data processing technologies broadened use of physical parameters (lava effusion rate or radiant flux) to define volcanic threat scales, avoiding semi-quantitative information with loose geographic ties. definition of data formats, scales and information content (radiant flux density, radiant flux or effusion rate) suited to act as input to straightforward modeling of lava flow emplacement. 209

34 Data are provided with full acquisition, pre-processing, processing, post-processing and distribution capabilities by means of Facility currently located at the Pole of Vibo Valentia of the University of Calabria. The input products are the MSG-SEVIRI, 11-channel data (Visible to Thermal IR, excepting panchromatic), physical parameters for computing radiant fluxes and effusion rates, petro-physical parameters for the computation of effusion rates. These data must be provided by the Project Management with suitable advance before start of operation. The MSG-SEVIRI pixel size over Mt. Etna is ca. 15 sq.km in the selected observation channels. Pixel footprints are assumed to be constant. The refresh rate is 15 minutes. Five channels (Visible to TIR, depending on night- or day-time acquisition) are used for cloud mapping and masking, where appropriate. Three channels (MIR to TIR) are used for hot-spot detection. Four channels (SWIR to TIR) are accounted for in threeendmember radiant flux (watt), and subsequent effusion rate (m 3 /s) computation by Dual- Band or Three-Band methods. The threshold for Hot-Spot detection will be fixed to 1 W/[m 2 sr µm] for MIR radiance. For Radiant flux computation, radiance should exceed the background by at least 1 W/[m 2 sr µm] in at least two channels (SWIR-to-TIR). Road tests have shown that the equation system is solved when radiant flux is ca or more. The output products will consist in layers of hot-spots (*SHP, *SHX, *DBF files) detected in the MIR-TIR channels according to above, with associated attributes table containing, for each hot-spot: coordinates (MSG pixel, radiant flux (Watts), effusion rate (m 3 /s). Effusion rates will be provided for bulk lavas, with null porosity/vescicularity. An IDL routine running in ENVI environment will be developed for the global monitoring of volcanic radiant flux and effusion rate (where appropriate) at high-spectral and high-temporal resolutions. Text file report including: acquisition date and time of satellite data, number of hot-spots detected, total radiant flux, total effusion rates. Under the direct control of the Project Management, observations will be run by the Facility on a six-month time span or on two or more smaller time span legs for a typical figure of processed images. The acquisition/ processing/post-processing/delivery policy includes the real-time transmission of the above Output products to the Project Management, upon conclusion of each processing day (stack of 96 Output products every 24 hours). During the project, operations will be triggerable at any time with a one-week advance notice and stoppable at any time with a one-day advance notice. A one-week demonstration of emergency operation with delivery upon conclusion of each acquisition and processing cycle (15- minute refresh) will be performed during the final 6 months of the project, with advance notice by the Project Management (larger or equal to 24 hours). The communications between the Project Management and the Facility will be Internet-based. Having account for the small size of vector/text output products (a few kilobytes at most), the possibility of wireless dispatch of results over the telephone network will be demonstrated, aimed to overcome delivery delays due to physical network failure in case of major events. Team 01C Marco Neri WP 4.2 Medium term probability map for the opening of eruptive fractures The aim of this team is the definition of the probability of the opening of eruptive fractures, in the short to mid term in geological point view (from decades to centuries), in function of data derived from ground surveys and satellite observation systems. Central stratovolcanoes like Mount Etna are characterized by summit and flank eruptions. Summit eruptions are the consequence of the ascent of magma from a central reservoir through the summit conduit. Flank eruptions are commonly characterized by multiple aligned vents that radiate from the summit of the volcano. Most of the observed flank eruptions at Etna originate from the summit conduit: here magma rises, often feeding summit eruptions, and subsequently propagates laterally and downslope, feeding radial fissures. A few flank eruptions, however, are triggered by intrusions that are not fed through the summit conduit, 210

35 Project V3 Lava but they are possibly directly fed by the reservoir beneath the volcano and are here named eccentric eruptions. A complete revision of the location and dynamics of opening of all recent eruptive vents, united with a study of the statistical distribution of all known eruptive and dry fractures, faults and dikes exposed in the Valle del Bove, will permit to construct a map of the probability of new vents opening in a given location. This study will consist of two main phases: the first will be dedicated to the acquisition of field data, which will be compared to data from the published literature. This phase will include: a) Georeferenced mapping of outcropping and buried eruptive fractures of the past ~1000 years. Where possible, the sense of propagation of the eruptive fractures will be determined, along with all volcanological, structural and geochemical parameters useful for a definition of the character of each analyzed fissure system. b) Georeferenced mapping of the dikes cropping out in the Valle del Bove, most ranging in age from ~100 ka to present, and with particular attention to those dikes that can be attributed to the Ellittico volcano. This is in fact a volcanic edifice whose feeder system strongly resembles that of the presently active volcano, and its study may furnish important information concerning the internal structure of the present edifice, as well as the modalities of magma transfer from the central conduit toward the periphery. c) Georeferenced mapping of the main tectonic structures that can (1) be potentially used as pathways for intruding magma and (2) influence the superficial stress field of the volcano. It is in fact known, that some tectonic structures can be intersected by the propagation of a magmatic dike, facilitating its migration toward the surface (such as in 1928, when the distal portion of the intrusion followed the fault planes outcropping at the Ripe della Naca). In other cases, the movement of the flank can induce the opening of fractures in the summit area, which, if they intersect the central conduit, determine the draining of magma in a mechanism described as passive in the literature, i.e., not determined simply by magmatic overpressure but rather by an external mechanical factor (such as the eruption). The second phase will be dedicated to the organization of the assembled data, for comparison with data available from other disciplines, and to their elaboration, aiming at the construction of the final map showing the probability of opening of eruptive fractrues. In particular, this second phase will consist of: a) Comparison of field and satellite data (in particolar InSAR), to evacuate the extent of volcano-tectonic structures and variations in the related deformation in time. b) Creation of a map synthetizing the density of eruptive fracturation, and comparison with other typologies of data. c) Construction of an interpretative model on the movement of magma within the volcanic edifice. d) Application of the model for the construction of a probability map for the opening of eruptive fractures. Team 01D - Harry Pinkerton WP 2.1 Physical and chemical parameterization of flow behaviour WP 2.2 Development of thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows This proposal is submitted in parallel with another proposal to NERC in the UK and is designed to provide additional support for work on Etna lava flows. The two problems we wish to address in this proposal complement the work of others on this project, and they are designed to provide additional data for improved flow modelling. 1. Lava rheological properties on eruption and changes downflow: 211

36 212 Rheological properties used in lava flow models are generally based on measurements on aphyric, avesicular melts with first-order approximations for the growth and consequent effects of crystals. However, most lavas are both crystalline and vesicular, and they contain variable amounts of volatiles, depending on the preeruptive volatile content, ascent rate and residence time of magma in the volcano, together with patterns of degassing at the vent and from the flow itself. To ensure that appropriate rheological properties are used in flow models, in situ rheological measurements along the flow are required. These should then be used to validate methods of calculating bulk rheological properties from melt chemistry, volatile content, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity. It is also important to determine the critical crystallinity beyond which magma can no longer flow. This parameter is vital for rheological calculations, but has yet to be robustly measured for any lava. The relative effects of cooling and degassing-induced undercooling on rheological changes of lava during future eruptions of Etna will be investigated using a combination of direct rheological and thermal measurements, and volatile loss studies of lava at different distances from the vent. This will be used to suggest how the current flow model may be modified. 2. Complications arising during the development of flow fields: While existing lava flow models effectively model the emplacement of simple lava flows, lavas that erupt for more than a few days on Etna have the potential to develop lava tubes and ephemeral vents. The resulting tube-fed lava generally travels significantly further than it would if it had continued to cool in a fully developed channel. Consequently, the most hazardous eruptions are also the most difficult to model realistically because critical processes such as flow inflation, ephemeral vent formation and the important transition from channelled flows to tube-fed flows cannot currently be simulated. An evaluation of the factors controlling the formation of lava tubes, ephemeral vents and other non-linear changes in the flow regime of mature lava flow fields will be undertaken during future effusive eruptions of Etna. Our preliminary analysis suggest that significant changes in flow behaviour take place as a consequence of changes in vent effusion rate, and that there is potential for quantification of these processes for incorporation into flow models. Team 01E Danilo Reitano WP 1.1 Development of internal and public Web portal WP 4.1 Database in GIS architecture Multidisciplinary data analysis can help researchers and technologists to evaluate the correct hazard during volcanic and/or seismic events. New software solutions and available data processing can perform useful relationship between related patterns. Our goal is the design and the development of a Web-GIS base infrastructure able to disseminate different kind of data, when requested. A user-friendly web interface will be realized, able to guarantee also different access levels and data representations. The web infrastructure, so designed, will be available to the project members and could be useful to present results outside for scientific requests. Moreover, inside COMETA project (PON 2006, one of the main aims is the capability to use massive calculation and very large amount of storage space. So the design of plant regarding database, storage, Web/GIS interface is well included inside the project. Also simulations of lava flow paths will be verified inside the GRID statement. The work, carried out in co-operation with Project V4-Flank, will be divided into 5 different steps: 1. Design and development of the complete database infrastructure.

37 Project V3 Lava 2. Implementation of an inventory with data and metadata coming from different research fields. 3. Design of the necessary layers and custom software that processes data and presents them into a GIS interface. 4. Realization of a Storage Area Network to guarantee redundancy and robustness. 5. Tests. Team 01F Alexis Herault WP 2.2 Development of thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows WP 2.6 Development of numerical models for lava flow simulations WP 5.4 Lava flow paths forecasting during an eruption During the first phase of the project, we will aim at optimizing the MAGFLOW cellular automata (CA) model (Eulerian approach) for lava flows developed by TecnoLab of INGV-Catania Section. To furnish a more detailed physical description of emplacement processes, two approach will be followed. In a first step, the structure of MAGFLOW model will be modified. In particular, it is possible to introduce a vertical thermal structure in the flow. To this aim two layers are considered: a lower layer, where the temperature is homogeneous and an upper layer across which heat is transferred by conduction. At free surface of the flow, we have heat radiation to the atmosphere. The upper layer is taken to coincide with the plug, defined as the region where no shear deformation takes place in a Bingham flow. The cooling mechanism will be controlled by the increase of yield stress, which produces a thicker plug and makes the heat loss slower. As result of heat loss into the atmosphere, a crust, defined as the layer which is above the isothermal surface at the solidus temperature, is gradually formed on the upper surface of the flow. We assume that a lava tube is formed when such a crust is sufficiently thick to resist the drag the underlying flow and sustain itself under its own weight. In a second step, a more sophisticated numerical model, based on Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) approach will be integrated in the MAGFLOW. By this model we will able to solve the equations of motion of a compressible fluid with a Lagrangian approach. Smoothedparticle hydrodynamics (SPH) is a Lagrangian method for modeling heat and mass flows. Due to its mesh-free nature and the handling of boundaries using SPH nodes, this method can handle complex splashing and fragmenting free surface flows and the motion of multiple solid equipment parts relatively easily. In traditional mesh-based methods used in commercial fluid-flow packages, large mesh deformations are generated by the motion of the equipment, leading to significant numerical problems. In addition, the tracking of the free surface is diffusive and inaccurate for the resolutions used. For SPH, materials are discretized into particles that can move subject to equations of motion arising from the governing partial differential equations. The particles are moving interpolation points that carry with them (convect) physical properties and state information, such as the mass of the fluid that the particle represents, its temperature, momentum, enthalpy, density, and other properties. The inter-particle forces are calculated by smoothing the information from nearby particles in a way that ensures that the resultant particle motion is consistent with the motion of a corresponding real fluid, as determined by the governing equation (e.g., the Navier-Stokes equations). So, particle-based modelling methods have specific advantages over traditional grid or mesh-based continuum methods for geophysical problems. These include highly accurate and non-diffusive prediction of complex free-surface behaviour including wave motion, fragmentation and splashing; accurate and automatic convection of material; and the straightforward inclusion of multiscale multi-physics. Of course, the development of new thermal model that permit a more accurate description of the fluid state will permit us to model the formation of the crust and, consequently, the formation of the lava tube. 213

38 Team 01G Annamaria Vicari WP 2.3 Development of techniques for hot-spot detection WP 2.4 Development of techniques for lava effusion rate measurements WP 5.4 Lava flow paths forecasting during an eruption In order to perform forecasting simulations of lava flow invasion area in near real time we will use the MAGFLOW model to predict the evolution of the phenomena during the ongoing eruptions. By MAGFLOW model, we will be able to estimate the areas exposed to inundations of lava flows during different kind of eruptions. The application of this fastrunning code will allow multiple run changing the initial and boundary conditions of the system (i.e.: the vent position, the flux-rate, the rheological properties, etc.). MAGFLOW permit us, also, to simulate the behavior of a lava flow in presence of barriers. Of course, the model requires some necessary input data, as for example the effusion rate. This last parameter is the principal factor controlling final flow dimensions. MAGFLOW model can take into account the way in which effusion rate changes during an eruption and how this influences the spread of lava as a function of time. Indeed, lava effusion rates can vary by orders of magnitude over a matter of hours, and are difficult to determine in-situ. We want to develop an automatic system that uses near-real-time thermal infrared satellite data acquired by MODIS, AVHRR and SEVIRI sensors (low spatial/high temporal resolution), to drive numerical simulations of lava flow paths. In this context, the Team 01-g will contribute to the project mainly developing and validating the techniques for real-time detection of hot spots related to volcanic eruptions and estimation of effusion rate. In particular, in a first step, we plan to improve the multiapproach method (that integrates AVHRR and MODIS data) with information coming from other sensors, such as Meteosat Second Generation geostationary satellite (MSG). MSG carries the only remote sensing sensor (SEVIRI) which allows for a 15-minute observation of Europe, allowing for high temporal resolution analysis and monitoring of active lava flows. To this aim a preliminary study will be conducted to confirm the applicability of the SEVIRI sensor as an instrument suitable to be employed in an operational system of early hot spot detection. For this purpose, an automatic system of hot spot detection, based on the high temporal frequency of the images acquisition, will be developed and tested on Etna volcano. The validation of the results will comprise the promptness of the detections (compared with the common ground based warnings), the errors of the geo-location and the accuracy of the sizes estimate of the hotspots. The assessment of the performances of the system will be obtained mainly comparing its results with those obtainable from higher resolution sun-synchronous sensors data (MODIS and AVHRR). In a second step, we plan to improve the approach for the estimation of the effusion rate. Infact, actually, the classic dual-band three method techniques, computing the heat flux on the base of Pieri and Baloga (1986) approach, was implemented. By this technique, an estimate of the temperatures of an active lava flow is furnished. In general, these temperatures estimated are influenced by meteorological conditions, daytime solar radiation, thermal inertia, elevation and many other parameters. Therefore, it is necessary to implement robust algorithms able to reduce these external influences for obtaining accurate effusion rate estimations. WP 3.4 Probabilistic lava flow simulations for long-term volcanic hazard assessment WP 3.5 Probabilistic lava flow simulations for short-term volcanic hazard assessment WP 3.6 Statistic analysis of the simulation results and implementation of the hazard map MAGFLOW models represent the central part of an extensive methodology for the hazard assessment at Mt. Etna. Hazard assessment can be performed by simulating a number of 214

39 Project V3 Lava lava flows from a set of initial data (a record of past eruptions) and with different parameters of the volcanic system in a meaningful range of variation. A preliminary zonation is necessary for identifying possible emission regions with the highest probability of opening. After that, a set of reference values for the parameters of the simulation model based on the knowledge of past eruptions is estimated. So, MAGFLOW is used to determine for each emission region the area that can be invaded by lava flows originated from sample points located in that region. Last step is to assign the probability of lava invasions to interested region, calculated on the basis of the simulated lava flows. Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 1 st year 1st half-year 1. Preliminary database of the features of the lava flow eruptions occurred in the last 4 century. (Team 01A) 2. Structural analysis of eruptive fissures. (Team 01C) 3. Provide preliminary rheological data for flow modelling. (Team 01D) 4. Development of physical mathematical model to simulate lava flow path. (Team 01F) 5. Development of hot-spot detection algorithm. (Team 01G) 6. Development of effusion rate algorithm. (Team 01G) 7. Database structure, study of different WEB/GIS systems. (Team 01E) 2nd half-year 8. Final database of the features of the lava flow eruptions occurred in the last 4 century. (Team 01A) 9. Library of physical parameter of the lava flow eruptions studied. (Team01A) 10. Structural analysis of the dikes cropping out in Valle del Bove. (Team 01C) 11. Structural analysis of the fault potentially involved in the eruptive activity. (Team 01C) 12. Construction of the probability map for the opening of eruptive fractures. (Team 01C) 13. Provide a report on the factors affecting the formation of tubes and ephemeral vents on Etna. (Team 01D) 14. Development of a new thermal model to permit the formation of the crust and, consequently, of lava tubes. (Team 01F) 15. Development of a new thermal model to permit the formation of lava tubes. (Team 01F) 16. Implementation of hot-spot detection algorithm. (Team 01G, Team01B) 17. Implementation of effusion rate algorithm. (Team 01G, Team01B) 18. Implementation of an IDL routine for the global monitoring of volcanic radiant flux and effusion rate ((Team 01G, Team 01B). 19. Site realization. (Team 01E) 20. Database integration. (Team 01E) Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 2 nd year 1st half-year 1. Validation of the lava flow simulations by adopting the parameter settings that best simulate the nearest historical lava flows. (Team 01A) 215

40 2. Construction of maps synthetizing the assembled data and their comparison with available satellite geodetic data. (Team 01C) 3. Provide robust rheological data for Etna lavas. (Team 01D) 4. Implementation of a near-real-time system that is able to produce essential information (i.e. effusion rate, hot spot detection) as input data of MAGFLOW. (Team 01G) 5. Implementation of physical mathematical model to simulate lava flow path. (Team 01F) 6. Data representations, web interfaces, GIS. (Team 01E) 2st half-year 7. Detailed assessment of the conditions under which the flow regime changes from the emplacement of a single channel-fed lava flow to more complex flow regimes. (Team 01D) 8. Structural analysis of the fault potentially involved in the eruptive activity. (Team 01C) 9. Implementation of the thermal model to permit the formation of the crust (Team 01F). 10. Implementation of a near-real-time system that is able to produce near-real-time scenario forecast. (Team 01G) 11. Compiling of a probabilistic hazard maps of lava flow. (Team 01A) 12. Development of procedures to transfer the results to DPC. (RU-01) 13. Text file report including: acquisition date and time of satellite data, number of hotspots detected, total radiant flux, total effusion rates (Team 01B). 14. Test sites. (Team 01E) 15. Final documentations; manuals. (Team 01E) Detailed Financial Request (in Euro) for each Team First Phase Team Spese personal e Spese missioni Costi amminist rativi Spese per studi e ricerche Spese servizi Materiale durevole e consumo Spese indirette Totale Coord TM-01A TM-01B TM-01C TM-01D TM-01E TM-01F TM-01G Total Second Phase Team 216 Spese personal e Spese missioni Costi amminist rativi Spese per studi e ricerche Spese servizi Materiale durevole e consumo Spese indirette Totale Coord TM-01A TM-01B TM-01C TM-01D

41 Project V3 Lava TM-01E TM-01F TM-01G Total Financial Request (in Euro) for the whole RU First Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale ) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) ) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo ) Spese indirette (spese generali) Totale Second Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) ) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale Total Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto)

42 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale Curriculum of the Scientific Responsible Ciro Del Negro - Senior researcher. Head of the Gravity and Magnetism Division. Scientific interests: Multidisciplinary modelling of mass dynamic processes occurring at different time scales via integrated analysis and joint inversion of gravimetric, magnetic and deformation data. Numerical modelling of interactions between eruptions and earthquakes in heterogeneous media; Numerical simulations of the spatial and temporal evolution of eruptive phenomena for hazard assessment. Publications: over 35 in International Journals and editor of the AGU book titled "Etna Volcano Laboratory". Most relevant publications of RU 1. Ball M., Pinkerton H. and Harris A., (2008) Surface cooling, advection and the development of different surface textures on active lavas on Kilauea, Hawai'i J Volcanol Geotherm Res (in press) 2. Behncke, B. Neri M. and Nagay, A. (2005), Lava flow hazard at Mount Etna (Italy): New data from a GIS-based study, in Manga, M., and Ventura, G., eds., Kinematics and dynamics of lava flows: Geol. Soc. Am. Spec. Pap. 396, , doi: / (13). 3. Branca S., Coltelli M., Groppelli G. (2004) Geological evolution of Etna volcano. In: Etna Volcano Laboratory Bonaccorso, Calvari, Coltelli, Del Negro, Falsaperla (Eds), AGU (Geophysical monograph series) 143, pp Calvari S., M. Coltelli, M. Neri, M. Pompilio, and V. Scribano (1994), The Etna eruption: chronology and lava flow-field evolution, acta vulcanologica, 4, Del Carlo P., Vezzoli L., Coltelli M., (2004). Last 100 ka Tephrostratigraphic Record of Mount Etna, AGU Geophysical Monograph 143 "Mt. Etna Volcano Laboratory", pp Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Vicari, A., (2004). Modelling lava flows by Cellular Nonlinear Networks (CNN): preliminary results. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 11: Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Herault, A., Vicari, A. (2007). Simulations of the 2004 lava flow at Etna volcano by the MAGFLOW Cellular Automata model, Bull. Volcanol., DOI /s Herault, A., Vicari, A., Ciraudo, A., and Del Negro, C. (2007). Forecasting Lava Flow Hazard During the 2006 Etna Eruption: Using the Magflow Cellular Automata Model, Computer & Geosciences (in press). 9. Hirn B.R., Di Bartola C., Laneve G., Cadau E. and F. Ferrucci (2008). SEVIRI onboard Meteosat Second Generation, and the Quantitative Monitoring of Effusive Volcanoes in Europe and Africa. IEEE IGARSS, Boston (USA), July 2008 (submitted). 218

43 Project V3 Lava 10. Vicari, A., Currenti, G., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Herault, A., Napoli, R., Rizzo, A., (2005). Simulations of lava flows at Mt Etna using paradigms of parallel computing. Nonlinear Phenomena in Complex Systems, 8:1, Vicari, A., Herault, A., Del Negro, C., Coltelli, M., Marsella, M., Proietti, C. (2007). Modelling of the 2001 Lava Flow at Etna Volcano by a Cellular Automata Approach, Environmental Modelling & Software, 22, Vicari, A., Ciraudo, A., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L. (2007). Lava flow simulations using effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery during the 2006 Etna eruption, Natural Hazard, (in press). 219

44 Project V3 - LAVA Realization of the lava flow invasion hazard map at Mt Etna and methods for its dynamic update RU V3/02 Scientific Responsible: Stefano Gresta, Full Professor, Università di Catania, Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche, Corso Italia 57, Catania, [email protected], tel ; cell: RU Composition: Scientific Resp. Position Institution Man/Months 1 st Man/Months 2 nd phase phase Stefano Gresta Full Professor Univ. Catania 6 6 Participants Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Renato Cristofolini Full Professor Univ. Catania 3 3 Distefano Giovanni Researcher Univ. Catania 3 3 Carmelo Ferlito Researcher Univ. Catania 3 3 Sebastiano Imposa Researcher Univ. Catania 3 3 Marco Viccaro Researcher Univ. Catania 3 3 Andrea Cannata PhD student Univ. Catania 5 5 Warner Marzocchi Director of Res. INGV-Roma 1 1 Jacopo Selva Researcher INGV-BO 1 4 Laura Sandri Researcher INGV-BO 4* 4* Luigi Passarelli PhD student INGV-BO 2 2 Rocco Favara Director of Res. INGV-PA 1 1 Antonio Paonita Senior Researcher INGV-PA 1 1 Marco Liuzzo Technologist INGV-PA 1 1 Alparone Salvatore Technologist INGV-CT 1 1 Andronico Daniele Researcher INGV-CT 1 1 Bonforte Alessandro Researcher INGV-CT 0 0 Caltabiano Tommaso Senior Technologist INGV-CT 1 1 Cocina Ornella Researcher INGV-CT 1 1 Corsaro Rosanna Researcher INGV-CT 1 1 Gambino Salvatore Technologist INGV-CT 0 0 Rosalba Napoli Researcher INGV-CT 0 0 Greco Filippo Technologist INGV-CT 0 0 Palano Mimmo Researcher INGV-CT 0 0 *Requested within the present Agreement, but not included within the Project cost statement Expert by INGV-Catania participating to the retrospective data analysis and weighted expert opinions for application of BET. They are, in the order experts in: seismo-volcanic events, volcanology, GPS, SO2 by plume, tectonic earthquakes, petrology, tilt, electromagnetic signals, gravimetry, InSAR. Description of Activity TASK 4 - Vent Opening Probability Map A reliable lava flow hazard assessment of Etna volcano may require a probabilistic estimation of the vent location. The goal of this RU is to provide a probabilistic assessment of vent location mainly based on seismological (earthquakes and tremor) and volcanological data, integrated with other geophysical and geochemical data, in co- 220

45 Project V3 Lava operation with expert researchers by INGV (Roma, Bologna, Catania and Palermo). We tackle this problem through a Bayesian statistical procedure that accounts for any kind of available information in a rationale and structured manner, providing a formal estimation of uncertainties. We deal with both long-term and short-term hazard assessment. For the long-term, we start from a prior model that considers the present tectonic and volcanic structure of the Etna volcano; in a second step we include through a likelihood distribution the information about past vent and fracture locations, considering their variation through time, and their relationship with the structural setting of the volcano; the final product of such analyses consists of a posteriori probability map for next vent opening. The shortterm vent opening hazard assessment will be estimated during an unrest phase and it includes geophysical, geochemical and volcanological parameters collect at Mount Etna during This RU will perform a retrospective analysis in order to define the probability of opening eruptive vent(s) for some of the eruptions occurred in the above time span. In this case, the basic map will updated accounting for the location, intensity and parameters of earthquakes, the location and features of tremor, the evolution of erupted magmas, the activity of structural trends. Such parameters are assumed to give insights about the future vent of the lava flow. First, we will analize, and then integrate results by the disciplines reported above, with expert opinions coming from other disciplines (by INGV Catania and Palermo), in a fully probabilistic scheme for hazard assessment, named BET. In a nutshell, BET is a probabilistic model to calculate and to visualize the probability of any possible volcano-related event, by merging all of the available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, expert opinions, monitoring observations. Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 1 st year 1st half-year 1. Basic hazard map 2. Comparison of some hazard maps considering different time spans of the life of the volcano. 2nd half-year 3. First dynamic maps (two or three past eruptive scenarios) Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 2 nd year 1st half-year 1. Other dynamic maps (further past eruptive scenarios) 2. Test on the different weights for parameters and expert opinions. 2nd half-year 3. Validation (if any) of the BET at Etna volcano. 221

46 Financial Request (in Euro) First Phase Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, , ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 0, Second Phase Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, , ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 45 0, Total Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale 222 Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 0,00

47 Project V3 Lava 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo , ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 96,00 0, An amount of euros per year will support the fees (points 2, 5 and 6) of the people by INGV participating to the RU Curriculum of the Scientific Responsible Stefano Gresta: born in Senigallia (Italy) on : Graduate in Physics Sciences at University of Bologna : researcher at Istituto Internazionale di Vulcanologia (CNR - Catania) : researcher at University of Catania : Associate Professor of Seismology at University of Catania. Since 2006: Full Professor of Seismology at University of Catania. Since 1987: responsible for several research projects by MURST-MIUR, CNR, INGV- DPC. His research activity is carried out in the fields of volcano physics, seismology and tectonophysics. 5 most relevant publications of RU Gresta S., Ripepe M., Marchetti E., D'Amico S., Coltelli M., Harris A.J.L. and Privitera E., Seismoacoustic measurements during the July-August 2001 eruption at Mt. Etna volcano, Italy. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 137, Monaco C., Catalano S., Cocina O., De Guidi G., Ferlito C., Gresta S., Musumeci C. and Tortorici L., Tectonic control on the eruptive dynamics at Mt. Etna volcano (eastern Sicily) during the 2001 and eruptions. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 144, Gresta S., Ghisetti F., Privitera E. and Bonanno A., Coupling of eruptions and earthquakes at Mt Etna (Sicily, Italy): a case study from the 1981 and 2001 events. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, doi: /2004gl Alparone S., Cannata A. and Gresta S., Time variation of spectral and wavefield features of volcanic tremor at Mt. Etna (January-June 1999). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 161, Palano M., Puglisi G. and Gresta S., Ground deformation patterns at Mt. Etna from 1993 to 2000 from joint use of InSAR and GPS techniques. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 169,

48 Project V3 - LAVA Realization of the lava flow invasion hazard map at Mt Etna and methods for its dynamic update RU V3/03 Scientific Responsible: Gino Mirocle Crisci, Full Professor, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Calabria, Ponte Pietro Bucci, Arcavacata di Rende (CS), [email protected], tel , fax: RU Composition: Scientific Resp. Position Institution Man/Months 1 st Man/Months 2 nd phase phase CRISCI Gino Mirocle Full Professor UNICAL 1 1 Participants Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase DI GREGORIO Full Professor UNICAL 1 1 Salvatore RONGO Rocco Researcher UNICAL 2 2 SPATARO William Researcher UNICAL 2 2 D AMBROSIO Donato Researcher UNICAL 2 2 NERI Marco Researcher INGV-CT 0 0 BEHNCKE Boris Research Fellow INGV-CT 0 0 AVOLIO Maria Vittoria Research Fellow UNICAL 6 6 LUPIANO Valeria Research Fellow UNICAL 6 6 NICEFORO Giancarlo Collaborator UNICAL 3 3 Description of Activity Task 3 - Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map WP 3.6 Statistic analysis of the simulation results and implementation of the hazard map Task 5 - Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation WP 5.4 Lava flow paths forecasting during an eruption WP 5.5 Lava flow simulations including diversion barriers during an eruption Objectives and Results Following the tasks already carried out in the previous INGV-DPC project, in order to verify the goodness and reliability of the obtained maps, a validation technique will be individuated and applied. Relative to a limited and well defined elevated urbanized area, several GIS oriented applications will be implemented: o Individuation of emission areas that can generate threatening lava flows for a particular zone (e.g. inhabited zones, roads, hospitals, power plants, etc). 224

49 Project V3 Lava o For real-time forecasting, once that an emission point(s) has been individuated, the maximum invasion covered area can be immediately obtained. Moreover, different degrees of invasion probabilities will permit to individuate more critical areas. Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 1 st year 1. GIS start-up implementation; 2. Definition of techniques for hazard map validation. Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 2 nd year 3. GIS Full implementation. Financial Request (in Euro) First Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale Second Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale

50 Total Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale Curriculum of the Scientific Responsible Gino Mirocle Crisci Date of birth: December, 21st, Nationality: Italian Languages: Italian, English. Actual position: Full Professor in Petrology and Petrography at University of Calabria, Department of Earth Sciences. Science Faculty Head of University of Calabria. The research activity of the Scientific responsible is aimed both in geo-chemical and petrographical studies of magmatic rocks and in applied studies that tackle punctual problematics. The goal of the magmamatological studies has been the development of a model to explain the presence of a broad compositional spectrum in recent emitted magmas in the Central-South Thyrrenian Sea and Sicily channel area. The applicative part can be synthesized in: 1) Studies on the application of Cellular Automata regarding the Earth Sciences (lava flows). 2) Archeometric studies with geo-chemical and petrographic investigation of archeological findings and of an analytical method for the determination of the origin of archeological obsidians. Most relevant publications of RU D Ambrosio, D., Rongo, R., Spataro, W., Avolio, M.V. and Lupiano, V., Lava Invasion Susceptibility Hazard Mapping Through Cellular Automata. Lectures Notes in Computer Sciences, 4173(S. El Yacoubi, B. Chopard, and S. Bandini (Eds.): ACRI 2006.): D Ambrosio, D., Spataro, W., Di Gregorio, S., Crisci, G.M. and Rongo, R., Parallel genetic Algorithms for calibrating Cellular Automata Models: Application to lava flows. Il Nuovo Cimento, 28(C-2 Special issue on High Performance Computing): Crisci, G.M., DiGregorio, S., Rongo, R. and Spataro, W., The Simulation model SCIARA: The 1991 and 2001 Lava Flows at Mount Etna. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 132(2-3): Barca, D., Crisci, G.M., DiGregorio, S., Rongo, R. and Spataro, W., Application of the Cellular Automata Model SCIARA to the 2001 Mount Etna Crisis. In: S.C. A. Bonaccorso, M.Coltelli, C. Del Negro, S. Falsaperla (Editor), Etna Volcano Laboratory. American Geophysical Union,, Washington. D.C., pp

51 Project V3 Lava Crisci, G.M. et al., Revisiting the 1669 Etnean eruptive crisis using a cellular automata model and implications for volcanic hazard in the Catania area. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 123(1-2):

52 Project V3 - LAVA Realization of the lava flow invasion hazard map at Mt Etna and methods for its dynamic update RU V3/04 Scientific Responsible: Massimiliano Favalli, Senior Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Sezione di Pisa, Via della Faggiola, Pisa, [email protected], tel: , fax: RU Composition: Scientific Resp. Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Massimiliano Favalli Senior Researcher INGV-PI 3 3 Participants Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Maria Teresa Director of INGV-PI 1 1 Pareschi Research Francesco Researcher INGV-PI 1 1 Mazzarini Simone Tarquini Technologist INGV-PI 6 6 Andrew JL Harris Associate University of 0 0 Professor Hawaii Marco Neri Researcher INGV-CT 0 0 Ilaria Isola Technologist INGV-PI 0 0 Alessandro Fornaciai Fellow INGV-PI 1 1 Description of Activity TASK 2 - Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques WP: 2.5 Development of techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping. It is well know that topographic features, including pre-existing channels and other lava morphologies, modify lava flow path together with mass eruption rates and lava rheological properties. Tecniques based on LiDAR data will be developed for intra-event rapid DEM mapping minimizing errors at local and global scale. Reconstruction and estimation of errors on past topographies and volumes will be performed. We will investigate the possibility to use the same tecnique to evaluate erupted lava volumes from LiDAR frames collected at short intervals, potentially allowing extimation of mass eruption rates. TASK 3 - Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map WP: 3.4, 3.5, 3.6 DOWNFLOW code accounts of the behavior of lava fields on Etna in an very effective way: in a few minutes computational times it is possible to simulate probabilistic areas exposed to lava invasion, with most exposed areas fitting very well the in-filled effective ones. It is based on an evolution of the steepest descent path criterion, which is applied thousands of times to a randomly perturbed topography to simulate the real behavior of Etnean lava flow fields. We want to extend and refine the existing simulation database by considering computational vent distribution with some tens of meters resolution. This database can be used to produce, in short times, hazard maps as a function of different vent opening probability distributions and lava flow lengths or 228

53 Project V3 Lava effusion rates. The database can also be used to produce maps reporting, for each point, the channelling/spreading index for a lava flow venting from that point (i.e. predictability of the lava path) and maps reporting, for each point, the impact produced by a lava flow venting from that point. All the above maps are valid as long as no significative topographical changes occur. Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 1 st year 1 st half-year 1. Techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping based on LiDAR technologies. 2. Hazard maps by lava flow using DOWNFLOW. 2 nd half-year 3. Maps indicating, at each point, the expected impact produced by a flow venting from that point. 4. Lava flow catchment area and maps as in the previous points 3 for given target areas. Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 2 nd year 1 st half-year 1. Error estimations on lava volumes and changing topographies in LiDAR. 2 nd half-year 2. Maps indicating, at each point, the channelling/spreading index for a lava flow venting from that point (i.e. predictability of the lava path). 3. Password protected web publishing of all produced data using Google Earth freeware technology. Financial Request (in Euro) First Phase Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 0, , 229

54 Second Phase Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 0, ,00 Total Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b ,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale , Curriculum of the Scientific Responsible Massimiliano Favalli Date of birth: 1 June 1967 Nationality: Italian Education: 2000: B.Sc. (full marks cum laude) in Physics, Universita degli Studi di Pisa, Pisa (Italy). Thesis on Numerical study of mesoscale circulation and atmospheric dispersion of a volcanic plume. The case of Mt. Etna. Languages: Italian, English. Professional experience: 07/2005-present: associate researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa (INGV-PI). 07/ /2005: researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa (INGV-PI). 230

55 Project V3 Lava 08/ /2004: researcher at Centro Studi di Geologia Strutturale e Dinamica dell Appennino (conveyed into Istituto di Geoscienze e Georisore since January 2002), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (Italy). Research experience: numerical simulations on volcano-related phenomena: mesoscale atmospheric circulation, atmospheric dispersion, debris flows, floods, lava flows, tsunamis. 5 most relevant publications of RU Favalli M. and M.T. Pareschi, 2004, Digital elevation model reconstruction preserving surface morphological structures, J. Geophys. Res., 109, F04004, doi: /2004jf Favalli M., M. T. Pareschi, A. Neri, I. Isola (2005), Forecasting lava flow paths by a stochastic approach, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L03305, doi: /2004gl Favalli M., G.D. Chirico, P. Papale, M.T. Pareschi, M. Coltelli, N. Lucaya, and E. Boschi (2006), Computer simulations of lava flow paths in the town of Goma, Nyiragongo volcano, Democratic Republic of Congo, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06202, doi: /2004jb Harris A., M. Favalli, F. Mazzarini, M.T. Pareschi (2007). Best-fit results from application of a thermo-rheological model for channelized lava flow to high spatial resolution morphological data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L01301, doi: /2006GL Mazzarini F., M. T. Pareschi, M. Favalli, I. Isola, S. Tarquini, E. Boschi (2005), Morphology of basaltic lava channels during the Mt. Etna September 2004 eruption from airborne laser altimeter data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L04305, doi: /2004gl

56 RU V3/05 Project V3 - LAVA Realization of the lava flow invasion hazard map at Mt Etna and methods for its dynamic update Scientific Responsible: Fortuna Luigi, Full Professor, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Elettrica, Elettronica e dei Sistemi, Facoltà di Ingegneria, Università di Catania, Viale A. Doria 6, Catania, [email protected], tel: , fax: RU Composition: Scientific Resp. Position Institution Man/Months 1 st Man/Months 2 nd phase phase Fortuna Luigi Full Professor University of Catania 3 3 Participants Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Frasca Mattia Research University of 3 3 Fellow Catania Caponnetto Researcher University of 3 3 Riccardo Catania Buscarino Arturo Research University of 3 3 Fellow Catania Bucolo Maide Researcher University of Catania 3 3 Description of Activity Task 2 - Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques Modern graphics processing units (GPUs) contain hundreds of arithmetic units and can be harnessed to provide tremendous acceleration for many numerically intensive scientific applications. The increased flexibility of the most recent generation of GPU hardware combined with high level GPU programming languages have unlocked this computational power and made it much more accessible to computational scientists. The key to effective utilization of GPUs for scientific computing is the design and implementation of efficient data-parallel algorithms that can scale to hundreds of tightly coupled processing units. Many particle modeling applications (as for example SPH model) are well suited to GPUs, due to their extensive computational requirements, and because they lend themselves to parallel processing implementations. The use of multiple GPUs can bring even more computational power to bear on highly parallelizable computational problems. We propose to apply this kind of data-parallel algorithm to the models developed by UR_DelNegro and UR_Russo. Task 5 - Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation In order to perform forecasting simulations of lava flow invasion area in near real time MAGFLOW model developed by UR_DelNegro will be used. The model needs of some input such us a digital representation of the topography over which the lava is to be emplaced, the location of the eruptive vent, knowledge of the relationships of viscosity and yield strength with temperature, and an estimate of the lava effusion rate. The lava effusion rate is critical point for lava flow simulations, because it is the principal factor controlling final flow dimensions. It can be highly variable. It can vary by orders of magnitude over a 232

57 Project V3 Lava matter of hours, and is difficult to determine in-situ. However, it is possible to estimate lava effusion rates using thermal infrared satellite imagery obtained from low spatial/high temporal resolution remote sensing data (e.g. MODIS, AVHRR). During the previous DPC-INGV volcanological project a digital image processing tools that uses near-real-time thermal infrared satellite data acquired by MODIS and AVHRR sensors has been successfully experimented on Etna volcano. In this context, the Research Unit will contribute to the project mainly developing and validating the techniques for real-time detection of hot spots related to volcanic eruptions and estimation of effusion rate. In particular, in a first step, we plan to improve the multi-approach method (that integrates AVHRR and MODIS data) with information coming from other sensors, such as MSG. In particular, MSG provides images every fifteen minutes and allows for high temporal resolution analysis and monitoring of active lava flows. In a second step, we plan to improve the approach for the estimation of the effusion rate. Infact, actually, the classic dual-band three method techniques, computing the heat flux on the base of Pieri and Baloga (1986) approach, was implemented. This method suffers of many limitation, due, mainly, (i) to the strictly hypothesis with which the effusion rate is computed starting from the heat flux obtained by satellite data, and (ii) to the atmospheric correction that must be applied to the measured radiance of the satellite sensor to obtain the corrected radiances used to compute the heat flux. Moreover, we have to take in mind that when the effusion rate is estimated from the heat flux, many parameters are fixed a priori, as for example the emissivity. Its contribution is not negligible: part of the radiation emitted by lavas is absorbed, reflected and scattered by the atmosphere. If the emissivity is known, the surface temperature can be retrieved from remotely-sensed spectral data. In this context, the availability of a new thermal model developed by UR_Dragoni and UR_DelNegro, and measurement of emissivity carried out by UR_Lombardo, will permit us to better introduce the thermal structure of the pixel of the image. This is a necessary information to compute the temperatures of active lava flow from the integrated temperature of the pixel. All the satellite data will be furnished by UR_Tramutoli and UR_Lombardo. The complexity in the development of data-parallel algorithm for GPU computation, the necessity to validate the effusion rate algorithm and the full tool for satellite data, suggest to involve in the project a new young researcher, to employ full time. For this reasons, we propose to fund a contract for a young researcher. In this case an amount of money, corresponding to a contract for a young researcher (19000 Euros for the contract of work, 5000 Euros for other expenses for each phase of the project), will be transferred to the University of Catania. Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 1 st year 1st half-year 1. Development of data-parallel algorithm for GPU computation 2. Development of algorithm for pre-processing of satellite data 2nd half-year 3. Development of algorithms for cloud mask detection. 4. Development of algorithms for hot spot detection. Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 2 nd year 1st half-year 1. Development of algorithm for effusion rate estimation 233

58 2. Implementation of automatic system to treat satellite data 2nd half-year 3. Implementation of a GPU cluster for lava flow simulation. 4. Integration of the algorithms developed into DPC interface. Financial Request (in Euro) First Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) 500 0,00 Totale 0, Second Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) 500 0,00 Totale 0, Total Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 234

59 Project V3 Lava 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 0, Curriculum of the Scientific Responsible Foruna Luigi - born in Siracuse on 27/05/1953. He is Full Professor of System Theory since November 1994 at the University of Catania where he is Dean of the Engineering Faculty, since November 2005 and is co-ordinator of the Ph.D. Course in Electronic and Automatic Engineering. He is author of more than 350 scientific publications; among them seven are books published by international editors: Bio-Inspired Emergent Control of Locomotion Systems, (World Scientific, 2004), Soft- Computing (Springer 2001), Nonlinear Non Integer Order Circuits and Systems (World Scientific 2001), Cellular Neural Networks (Springer 1999),Neural Networks in Multidimensional Domains (Springer 1998), Model Order Reduction in Electrical Engineering (Springer 1994), Robust Control - An Introduction (Springer 1993). He is author of 10 industrial patents. He is in charge for a series of contracts with public and private companies (exmurst, CNR, ENEA, EURATOM, ERG Petroli, ASI, STMicroelectronics, etc). At present he is local coordinator of two EC projects: CLAWAR (Climbing & Walking Robots) and DICTAM. He is IEEE Fellow, Chairman of the IEEE Committee on CNN an Array Processors and is also Chairman of the IEEE Central and South Italy Italy CAS Chapter. His scientific interests include: Robust Control, Nonlinear Science and Complexity, Chaos, Cellular Neural Networks, Soft-Computing Strategies for Control. Robotics, Micro - Nanosensor and Smart Devices for Control, Nano-Cellular Neural Networks Modelling. He is the coordinator of the courses in Electronic Engineering. He is Fellow of the IEEE CAS Society, IEEE CASChairman of the CNN Technical Committee, IEEE CAS Distinguishing Lectures , IEEE Chairman of the IEEE CAS Chapter Central- South ITALY. 5 most relevant publications of RU Currenti, G., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Napoli, R. and Vicari, A. (2004). Non-linear analysis of geomagnetic time series from Etna volcano, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 11, Del Negro C., Fortuna L., Vicari A., (2004). Modelling lava flows by Cellular Nonlinear Networks (CNN): preliminary results. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys, 11: Vicari, A., Currenti, G., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Herault, A., Napoli, R., Rizzo, A., (2005). Simulations of lava flows at Mt Etna using paradigms of parallel computing. Nonlin. Phen. in Comp. Syst., 8:1, Arena, P.; Basile, A.; Bucolo, M.; Fortuna, L. An object oriented segmentation on analog CNN chip IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems I: Fundamental Theory and Applications, Vol. 50, No. 7, July 2003, pp Caponetto, R., Fazzino, S., Fortuna, L., Frasca, M., E^3: An universal emulator for complex systems, AIP Proceedings of 8th Experimental Chaos Conference 2004, Florence, Italy June 2004, pp

60 236 RU V3/06 Project V3 - LAVA Realization of the lava flow invasion hazard map at Mt Etna and methods for its dynamic update Scientific Responsible: Valerio Lombardo, Researcher, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Sezione CNT, Via di Vigna Murata 605, Roma, [email protected], tel: , fax: RU Composition: Scientific Resp. Position Institution Man/Months 1 st Man/Months 2 nd phase phase Lombardo Valerio Researcher INGV-CNT 3 3 Participants Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Spinetti Claudia Researcher INGV-CNT 0 0 Taddeucci Jacopo Researcher INGV-RM1 0 0 Buongiorno Director of Res. INGV-CNT 2 2 Fabrizia Scarlato Senior INGV- RM1 0 0 Piergiorgio Researcher Colini Laura Researcher INGV-CNT 1 3 Amici Stefania Researcher INGV-CNT 2* 2* Silvestri Malvina Research Fellow INGV-CNT 0 0 Musacchio Research Fellow INGV-CNT 1 1 Massimo *Requested within the present Agreement, but not included within the Project cost statement Description of Activity Task 2 - Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques Task 5 - Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation WP 2.1: Basaltic melts emissivity measurements - Concerning the deliverables for thermal anomalies, important experimental measurements of emissivity for Etnean lava flows have been carried out. Emissivity is a key parameter in remote sensing thermal analysis. Starting from the radiance measured by a remote sensor in a given infrared band, it is possible to evaluate the brightness temperature at the sensor. Generally, this temperature is different from surface temperature. This is due to different causes: the surface is not a black body, thus emissivity contribution is not negligible; part of the radiation emitted by lavas is absorbed, reflected and scattered by the atmosphere. If the emissivity is known, the surface temperature can be retrieved from remotely-sensed spectral data. Spectral radiance detected by spaceborne and airborne sensors must be corrected for the effects of solar reflection and atmospheric contamination of the radiant signal. Multispectral satellite data recorded in the short wave infrared region of spectrum (SWIR) have been used to estimate temperature of hot volcanic features such as fumaroles, lava-lakes and lava-flows (Landsat TM, ETM, ASTER). For analysis of active flows, temperature is an essential parameter to measure. Modeling the thermal structure of active lava flows allows determining the total thermal flux and therefore the instantaneous effusion rate of the flow Emissivity spectral profiles in the short wave infrared region of spectrum (SWIR) have been estimated for Etnean molten lavas. Emissivity values of molten rocks are lacking in literature. The

61 Project V3 Lava Experimental Volcanology Lab of the University of Wuerzburg, Germany, is equipped with a relatively large rock melting facility equipped with a 20 cm-diameter crucible inductively heated up to and above magmatic temperature. We load the crucible with 0.3 kg ca. of granulated rock from a basaltic bomb erupted at Etna in 2002 and heat it up to 1250 C. Then we gradually lower the temperature while acquiring spectra of the melt surface. A thermo-couple touching the same surface and connected to a data-logger continuously records melt temperatures (Fig.1). The methodology adopted in this experiment is based on the use of a field Spectroradiometer (ASD FieldSpec Pro) to estimate the radiance emitted from basaltic melts at different temperatures in the SWIR. Post processing of radiance spectra using the radiative transfer code MODTRAN allows to distinguish between gas absorptions and emissivity features in the spectral profiles. Preliminary results show that spectral emissivity signature of Etnean molten lavas varies as a function of temperature and emissivity of molten lava is lower then emissivity of cooler basalts. WP 2.2: Lava flow thermal model - High spatial resolution data are essential for producing detailed lava flow maps. Moreover, hyperspectral instruments, such as the MIVIS sensor, offer hundreds of measurements in the SWIR-TIR spectral range, which allow for improved analysis of the sub-pixel lava thermal structures (Oppenheimer et al, 1993c; Flynn et al., 2000). Preliminary results suggest a complex thermal structure for Etnean lava flows. This is characterized by a down-flow transition from a lightly crusted active channel to a more heavily crusted distal zone of dispersed flow, both surrounded by zones of stagnant cooling flow where exposed molten material is absent and maximum temperatures are thus lower. Improvement in lava flow thermal model can greatly enhance accuracy of effusion rate estimations. WP 2.3 e WP 5.1: Hot-spot detection Automatic detection of volcanic hot-spot has been already tested during the activities of the European Project PREVIEW and are implemented as a pre-operative tool in the ASI-INGV Project ASI-SRV(Sistema Rischio Vulcanico) starting from January 2007 following the requirements furnished by DPC. The Hot-spot detection automatic procedure is currently using AVHRR data directly acquired by means of a NOAA/TERASCAN station located at the INGV in Rome. During the second year of the project will be available a multi-approach which will combine the information coming from MODIS data. The improvement of the AVHotRR system and the routine for treatment of MODIS data will be also developed in the frame of ASI-SRV project. WP 2.4 e WP 5.3: Effusion rate estimation- Effusion rates were estimated from the heat flux following the approach of Pieri and Baloga (1986) and as adapted to extract effusion rates from satellite thermal data by Harris et al. (1997a; 1997b; 1998; 2000). Effusion rates are already estimated by AVHotRR, an IDL developed program that automatically process AVHRR data in near real time. As for the Hot-spot detection procedure the effusion rate estimation product is already tested and implemented in the ASI-SRV project. In the present project the algorithms used in the procedures will be improved by introducing new experimental measurements of emissivity (WP 2.1) and compared with previous rates derived by using emissivity of cold basalts. We plan to apply new emissivity results for deriving effusion rates also from MODIS data. Influence of variation of the emissivity parameter on effusion rate estimates will be analyzed using AVHRR time-series. We consider very important to integrate the procedures developed in other projects aimed to the implementation of operative tools for monitoring volcanic phenomena with the 237

62 results of scientific activities (WP2.1-WP2.2) which may improve the accuracy of the algorithms and retrieved values. In particular the use of remote sensing data requires to know both specific material intrinsic characteristics and the interaction between the solar radiation and the atmosphere. WP 2.5: Middle-high resolution DEM generation- Stereo viewing of images has been the most common method used by the mapping, photogrammetry, and remote sensing communities for elevation modeling. ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) is an imaging instrument that is flying on Terra, a satellite launched in December 1999, as part of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS). ASTER two near-infrared spectral bands, 3N and 3B, generate along-track stereo image pair with a base-to-height (B/H) ratio of about 0.6, and an intersection angle of about 27.7 degrees. This allows for mapping at medium to large scales and for generating digital elevation model (DEM) from the along-track stereo data. The IDL routine AsterDTM licensed from RSI, allows for DEM generation using ASTER stereopair. We plan to apply the AsterDTM routine on the ASTER dataset of Etna to retrieve topographic variation in the period Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 1 st year 1st half-year 1. Measurements of spectral emissivity of basaltic melts. 2. Hot-spot detection in near real time from AVHRR data (from ASI and FP7 projects). 3. Improvement of Active lava flow effusion rate algorithms from AVHRR data using new emissivity measurements. 2nd half-year 4. Lava flow thermal model from high spatial resolution airborne data (MIVIS) Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 2 nd year 1st half-year 1. Hot-spot detection in near real time from MODIS data (from ASI and FP7 projects). 2. Active lava flow effusion rate from MODIS data using new emissivity measurements. 2nd half-year 3. DEM derived from ASTER. 4. Analysis of emissivity influence on effusion rate estimates. Financial Request (in Euro) First Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 2) Spese per missioni

63 Project V3 Lava 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo ) Spese indirette (spese generali) 1800 Totale Second Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 2) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo ) Spese indirette (spese generali) 1800 Totale Total Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 2) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo ) Spese indirette (spese generali) 3600 Totale

64 Curriculum of the Scientific Responsible Valerio Lombardo Date of birth: 21 December 1969 Nationality: Italian Education: professional exam in Geology, passed : B.Sc. (full marks) in Geological Sciences, Università degli Studi La Sapienza di Roma (Italy). Languages: Italian, English. Professional experience: 2002-present: researcher at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma (INGV-CNT). Research interests: Remote-sensing of active volcanoes. Eruptive processes; lava flows, fumaroles and lava tubes; rheological analysis of volcanic melts; thermal imagery applied to volcano monitoring. 5 most relevant publications of RU Buongiorno M.F., Realmuto V.J., Doumaz F., Recovery of spectral emissivity from Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS). Imagery acquired over a mountainous terrain: a case study from Mount Etna Sicily. January 2002, Remote Sensing of Environment. Vol 79, pp , Lombardo, V., M.F. Buongiorno (2006). Lava flow thermal analysis using three infrared bands of remote-sensing imagery: a study case from Mount Etna 2001 eruption., Remote Sensing of environment 101/2: Lombardo, V., M.F. Buongiorno and S. Amici (2006). Characterization of a volcanic thermal anomalies by means of sub-pixel temperature distribution analysis: a case from the 1996 mount Etna eruption using airborne imaging spectrometer data, Bull. Volcanol. 68, 07-08, ; DOI: /s Lombardo, V., M.F. Buongiorno, D.C. Pieri and L. Merucci (2004). Differences in Landsat TM derived lava flow thermal structure during summit and flank eruption at Mt. Etna, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 134, 1-2, Taddeucci J., Pompilio M. & Scarlato P. (2002). Monitoring the explosive activity of the July-August 2001 eruption of Mt. Etna (Italy) by ash characterization. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 71. doi: /2001GL

65 Project V3 Lava RU V3/07 Project V3 - LAVA Realization of the lava flow invasion hazard map at Mt Etna and methods for its dynamic update Scientific Responsible: Marsella Maria, Associate Professor, La Sapienza Università di Roma, via Eudossiana, Roma, Phone [email protected] RU Composition: Scientific Resp. Position Institution Man/Months Man/Months 1 st phase 2 nd phase Maria Marsella Assoc. Prof. Sapienza University of Roma 2 2 Participants Position Institution Man/Months Man/Months 1 st phase 2 nd phase Silvia Scifoni Collab. Sapienza University of Roma 6 6 Alberico Sonnessa PhD Student Sapienza University of Roma 1 1 Ernesto Bernardo Collab. Sapienza University of Roma 1 1 Mauro Coltelli Senior Researcher INGV-CT 0 0 Cristina Proietti Post Doc INGV-CT 0 3 Quintilio Napoleoni Ass. Prof. Sapienza University of Roma 1 1 Description of Activity TASK 2 - Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques WP 2.4 Development of techniques for lava effusion rate measurements Analysis and validation of methods for average effusion rate measurements based on volumetric approach. Evaluation of results relative to instantaneous effusion rate measurements using geometrical/volumetric constraint data. WP 2.5 Development of techniques for intra-event rapid DEM mapping Analysis of the techniques based on helicopter/airbornel/satellite stereomodel to extract syneruption DEM: operational constraints, achievable vs required accuracy, revisiting time and acquisition geometry for satellite sensors, processing time required, ground measurements requirements. Ground base topographical techniques with 3D capability to derived geometrical parameters useful for rapid evaluation of lava flow advancement in case of simple flow. TASK 3 - Lava Flow Invasion Hazard Map WP 3.2 Topographic data quality Comparative statistical analysis of topographic data extracted by means of different techniques to evaluate their usefulness for application having different accuracy requirements. The analysis will include vector and raster maps as well as Digital elevation model and orthophotos, TASK 5 - Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation WP 5.5 Lava flow simulations including diversion barriers during an eruption definition of the interaction mechanism between the lava flow and the barrier in order to estimate the active force and establish constraints for barrier project 241

66 simulation tests on different case studies adopting pre-eruption DEM and sineruption data in order to calibrate the model and evaluate the impact of different barrier configuration definition of a tool which, on the basis of the simulation results and DEM updating, can automatically extract the optimal barrier configuration the relative operational plan WP 5.6 Quantitative analysis of a barrier system for selected future eruptive scenarios Documentation and quantitative analysis of 3 recent historical cases in which lava flows reached/approached sensible areas definition of operational project to build barriers in the sensible areas taking into consideration environmental and operational issues to identify construction elements, means of conveyance, costs and required times Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 1st year 1st half-year 1. Numerical three-dimensional maps pre and post eruption of the 3 case studies and, in presence of useful data, reconstruction of the temporal evolution of the lava flows 2nd half-year 2. Report on the results of the simulation tests obtained using different barrier configurations 3. Definition of a model for the interaction barrier-flow Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 2nd year 1st half-year 1. Quantitative analysis of the effect of different barrier configuration 2nd half-year 2. Operational plan to built up the selected barrier configuration for the 3 test cases 3. Configuration of a software for barrier construction to be interfaced with a geodatabase and the simulation tool Financial Request (in Euro) First Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 2) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) Spese per servizi 242

67 Project V3 Lava 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) Totale Second Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 2) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) Totale Total Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 2) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) Totale Curriculum of the Scientific Responsible Maria Marsella. Degree in Physics (1987, Sapienza University), PhD in Geodesy and Surveying (1992, Bologna Univ.), Assistant Professor at Engineering Faculty of Sapienza University ( ), Visiting Scientist ( ) at the U.S. Geological Survey, Associate Professor (since 2001) at Sapienza where she teachs Surveying and Geomatic Monitoring Methods at the Civil and Environmental Engineering courses. She conducted ASI and ESA research projects. Since 1996 she was involved in projects funded by GNV, INGV and Civil Protection Department dedicated to active volcanic areas monitoring. Member of AIT (Ital. Ass. for Rem. Sens.) and CERI (Research Center on Geologic 243

68 Hazards). Her activity is focused on the technique for extracting high resolution digital maps and terrain models by means of aerial and satellite photogrametry, laser scanning and remote sensing. She is also involved in project dedicated to deformation monitoring in presence of natural hazards. 5 most relevant publications of RU Baldi P., Fabris M., Marsella M., Monticelli R.: (2005) Monitoring the morphological evolution of the Sciara del Fuoco during the Stromboli eruption using multitemporal photogrammetry, Journal of International Society of Photogrammetry and remote Sensing Vol.59/4, pp Vicari A.; Herault A.; Del Negro C.; Coltelli M; Marsella M; Proietti C. (2007) Modeling Of The 2001 Lava Flow At Etna Volcano By A Cellular Automata Approach, Environmental Modelling & Software, 22, ,doi: /j.envsoft. Coltelli, M., Proietti, C., Branca, S., Marsella, M., Andronico, D., Lodato, L., (2007). Analysis of the 2001 lava flow eruption of Mt. Etna from 3D mapping, JGR- Earth Surface, in stampa. Baldi P., Coltelli M. Fabris, M. Marsella M., Tommasi P (2007) High precision photogrammetry for monitoring the evolution of Sciara del Fuoco after the Stromboli eruption, Bulletin of Volcanology, in stampa. Marsella M., Coltelli M., Branca S., Proietti C., Monticelli R. (submitted) Lava Flow Eruption Of Stromboli: A Contribution To Understanding Lava Discharge Mechanism Using Periodic Digital Photogrammetry Surveys, Learning from Stromboli and its eruptive crisis. AGU Geophysical Monograph volume, Editors: S. Calvari, S. Inguaggiato, G. Puglisi, M. Ripepe, M. Rosi 244

69 Project V3 Lava RU V3/08 Project V3 - LAVA Realization of the lava flow invasion hazard map at Mt Etna and methods for its dynamic update Scientific Responsible: Giovanni Russo, Professor, Director of the Marcello Anile Center for Mathematics and its Applications, University of Catania. Mailing address: Dipartimento di Matematica ed Informatica, Università di Catania, Viale Andrea Doria 6, 95125, Catania, [email protected], tel: , fax: RU Composition: Scientific Resp. Position Institution Man/Months 1 st Man/Months phase 2 nd phase Russo Giovanni Professor University of Catania 3 3 Participants Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Sebastiano Researcher University of Catania 3 3 Boscarino Alfio Bonanno Researcher University of Catania 2 2 Stavro Ivanovski PhD student University of Catania 2 2 Norbert Siedow Researcher Fraunhofer-ITWM 2 2 Sudarsan Tiwari Researcher Fraunhofer-ITWM 3 3 Description of Activity Task 2 Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques This project concerns development of mathematical models and numerical methods for lava flows. Many problems in environmental sciences involve the large-scale movement of solids and fluids. They are often irregular in their timing, difficult to observe and measure, involve multiple types of physical processes on a broad range of spatial and temporal scales and can be catastrophic in their consequences. Computational modelling can play an important role both in helping understanding the nature of the fundamental processes involved, and in predicting the detailed outcomes of various types of events in specific locations. With this project we propose to study novel mathematical models to describe the behavior of lava, with particular attention to cooling and solidification, and to develop different numerical techniques for lava flow simulation. Mathematical model of lava cooling. Traditionally, lava is considered a Bingham fluid, whose heat exchange is dominated by conduction and convection inside the lava, and by radiation (through the Stefan term) concentrated at its surface. The radiative heat transfer may play a role in accurately predict solidification time. One of the objectives of the research is to perform a quantitative investigation of the relevance of the thickness of lava in the heat exchange process that leads to the crust formation. At the Fraunhofer ITWM there is a research group, lead by Dr. Norbert Siedow, who studied the effect of radiative transfer in glass cooling, developing an asymptotic model which is much more efficient than the full kinetic model for radiative heat transfer, yet much more accurate than the purely convective-conductive 245

70 model that relegates radiative transfer to the Stefan term at the boundary. The results obtained by the Fraunhofer group will be adapted to the lava, and the effect of influence of the thickness of lava on its cooling time will be determined by a detailed numerical simulation, using finite volume methods on a fixed domain. Free Lagrangian methods for lava flow. The use of Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics method (SPH) for lava flow simulation will be investigated. SPHis a Lagrangian method for modeling heat and mass flows. Due to its mesh-free nature and the handling of boundaries using SPH nodes, this method can handle complex splashing and fragmenting free surface flows and the motion of multiple solid equipment parts relatively easily. In traditional mesh-based methods used in commercial fluid-flow packages, large mesh deformations are generated by the motion of the equipment, leading to significant numerical problems. Alternatively, continuous regridding of the mesh will make mesh-based method less efficient. In addition, the tracking of the free surface is diffusive and inaccurate for the resolutions used. For SPH, materials are discretized into particles that can move subject to equations of motion arising from the governing partial differential equations. The particles are moving interpolation points that carry with them (convect) physical properties and state information, such as the mass of the fluid that the particle represents, its temperature, momentum, enthalpy, density, and other properties. The inter-particle forces are calculated by smoothing the information from nearby particles in a way that ensures that the resultant particle motion is consistent with the motion of a corresponding real fluid, as determined by the governing equation (e.g., the Navier-Stokes equations). So, particle-based modelling methods have specific advantages over traditional grid or mesh-based continuum methods for geophysical problems. These include highly accurate and non-diffusive prediction of complex free-surface behavior including wave motion, fragmentation and splashing; accurate and automatic convection of material; and the straightforward inclusion of multiscale multi-physics. The department of Transport Processes of the Fraunhofer-ITWM has a large experience on the use of meshfree methods for fluid flow calculations, and the collaboration with them may be extremely valuable in the application of SPH to lava flow. These contributes will permit us to model the formation of the crust and, consequently, the formation of the lava tube. This task will be developed with UR Del Negro. Level set methods for free-boundary problems Traditional finite element methods on unstructured tetrahedral grids become impractical for free boundary problems, because most of the time would be spent to construct a grid that adapts to the new geometry of the problem. This was one of the motivations for using SPH for lava flow. As an alternative technique, one might explore the use of finite volume methods on regular square grid on a large domain, using a level set function or the associated signed distance function, to define the actual computational domain. The latter is extended by the introduction of a few points outside of the domain (ghost points), whose field variables are defined on the basis of the boundary conditions. A suitable evolution equation for the level set function will automatically update the computational domain at each time step. This approach, proposed by Osher and Fedkiw, is called ghost fluid method. A similar approach for Navier-Stokes equation has been already used. A second advantage of this approach is that the discretization of the equations is performed on a regular square grid, which is usually more efficient and accurate than a discretization on an unstructured grid with the same number of unknowns. Furthermore, such approach may be more easily applicable to the asymptotic model for radiative heat transfer developed by ITWM. One of the goals is to investigate the possibility of solving the partial differential equations describing lava flow using the approach described above. 246

71 Project V3 Lava The development of the proposed mathematical models requires employing full time a new young researcher. We propose to fund a contract for a young researcher (19000 Euros for the contract of work, 5000 Euros for other expenses for each phase of the project). The grant will be managed by the Marcello Anile Center for Mathematics and its Applications (MACMA), an interuniversity research consortium among the Universities of Catania and Florence, with the participation of the Fraunhofer ITWM Center of Kaiserlautern (Germany). Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 1 st year 1st half-year 1. Review of fluid dynamical models of lava, and development of a new model obtained applying the boundary layer theory developed at ITWM for the radiative heat transfer in glass. 2nd half-year 2. Validation of the model by comparison with classical model by fixed boundary computation obtained by finite volume method 3. Investigation on the use of ghost-fluid method approach for the treatment of glass or lava cooling on a fixed domain: formulation of the problem Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 2 nd year 1st half-year 1. Formulation of SPH discretization for the description of lava flow, using well established mathematical models. 2. Implementation of SPH, and validation. 2nd half-year 3. Implementation of ghost-fluid method for glass or lava flow with moving boundaries. 4. Comparison between SPH and ghost-fluid method. Financial Request (in Euro) First Phase Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b 2) Spese per missioni ) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo,00 Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) 500 0,00 Totale

72 Second Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) 500 0,00 Totale 0, Total Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 0, Curriculum of the Scientific Responsible Prof. Giovanni Russo - Professor of Numerical Analysis, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Catania, Italy; Director of the Marcello Anile Center for Mathematics and its Applications (MACMA); Coordinator of the PhD program in Mathematics for Technology, University of Catania (PhD Math. Tech.). Professional experience: 2000-present Full Professor of Numerical Anaysis, University of Catania, Italy; Associate Editor SIAM J. Numer. Anal; Associate Professor of Numerical Analysis, University of L'Aquila, Italy; Research position at the University of L'Aquila, Italy; Post doctoral position at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences; 1987 CNR-NATO Fellowship for research abroad; Research experience for one year on solid state physics (laser irradiation of semiconductors) at the Physics Institute of the University of Catania. 248

73 Project V3 Lava Educational background: Ph.D. in Physics, University of Catania, Italy; Title of the Thesis: "Propagation and Stability of Shock Waves in Classical and Relativistic Gas Dynamics" Advisor: Prof. A.M. Anile; Laurea degree in Nuclear Engineering, Magna cum Laude, Poiltecnico di Milano, Italy; Research interests: Computational fluid dynamics - Numerical methods for conservation laws - Numerical methods for kinetic equations - Mathematical modeling and simulation of crystal growth 5 most relevant publications of RU Anile, Angelo Marcello; Romano, Vittorio; Russo, Giovanni Extended hydrodynamical model of carrier transport in semiconductors. SIAM J. Appl. Math. 61 (2000), no. 1, Russo, Giovanni; Smereka, Peter Kinetic theory for bubbly flow. I. Collisionless case. SIAM J. Appl. Math. 56 (1996), no. 2, Russo, Giovanni; Smereka, Peter A level-set method for the evolution of faceted crystals. SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 21 (2000), no. 6, N. Siedow. Radiative heat transfer and its application in glass production processes. International Journal of Forming Processes. Vol. 2, No. 1-2/ 1999, pp A. Klar, N. Siedow. Boundary Layers and Domain Decomposition for Radiative Heat Transferand Diffusion Equations: Applications to Glass Manufacturing Processes Euro. Jnl of Applied Mathematics (1998), vol.9, pp

74 Project V3 - LAVA Realization of the lava flow invasion hazard map at Mt Etna and methods for its dynamic update RU V3/9 Scientific Responsible: Andrea Tallarico, Professore Associato, Università di Bari, Centro Interdipartimentale di Ricerca per la Valutazione e Mitigazione del Rischio Sismico e Vulcanico, Via Orabona 4, Bari, [email protected], tel: RU Composition: Scientific Resp. Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Andrea Tallarico Associate Professor Università di Bari 3 3 Participants Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Michele Dragoni Full Professor Università di 3 3 Bologna Stefano Santini Associate Università di 3 3 Professor Urbino Antonello Piombo Researcher Università di 3 3 Bologna Marilena Filippucci Research Fellow Università di 5 5 Bari Antonella Valerio PhD student Università di Bologna 5 5 Description of Activity TASK 2 - Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques WP 2.2 Development of thermal and fluid-dynamical models of lava flows WP 2.4 Development of techniques for lava effusion rate measurements TASK 5 - Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation WP 5.3 Effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery Thermo-fluid-dynamics of lava flows: theoretical aspects and experimental data. The aim of the RU is to perform a quantitative study on the dynamics of lava flows in order to provide the physical constrains necessary to develop a method to predict the lava flows path. In particular, starting from the results achieved by the RU (V3 6/13) with scientific responsible M. Dragoni within his project funded by Civil Protection during the contract, we intend to improve the reliability of the dynamical models of lava flows nowadays available considering non-linear rheologies. The study of non-linear rheologies appears to be a necessary step in order to describe the lava behavior in a more realistic way getting over the approximation of the Newton or Bingham fluid. This study needs both a theoretical approach taking into account the thermal and fluid-dynamical processes, which take place in lava flows and the knowledge of the parameters involved in the new rheological models. The models will consider lavas with different chemical compositions (acidic, basic) and different effusion temperatures, 250

75 Project V3 Lava laterally unconfined flows and channelled flows, fed by variable effusion rates at the eruption vent. The flow models will employ different constitutive equations for the lava, aiming to check which of them is more adequate to reproduce the different characteristics which are observed in lava flows. In addition to the Newtonian and Bingham rheologies, we intend to employ a power law rheology, representing a pseudoplastic rheological behaviour more adequately than the Bingham body. In the case of a power law, the constitutive equation no longer assumes a stress threshold associated with a constant viscosity for stress values greater than the threshold, but includes a viscosity depending in a continuous manner on strain rate and decreasing as the strain rate increases. The introduction of such a rheology should allow to reproduce those characteristics of lava flows which are typical of a non- Newtonian behaviour, without resorting to the approximation connected with the Bingham rheology, which predicts the existence of completely undeformed regions (the plug). Modelling will be assisted by the availability of thermal and rheological data, which will be collected by the experimental facilities at the Dept. of Earth and Environment, University of Munich participating in the project as a subcontractor (responsible Dr. Kai- Uwe Hess) to which will be transferred 5000 Euros for each phase of the project. In particular experimental data, regarding the viscosity and rheology of lava at subliquidus temperature, appear to be necessary in order to describe the dynamics of lava flows far from the vent where, as consequence of cooling, magma can easily reach temperatures below its liquidus temperature. A phenomenon affecting lava cooling and consequently its dynamical behaviour is the viscous thermal dissipation taking place during the flow. This aspect is not yet exhaustively treated in volcanological literature and experimental measurements of the amount of heat generated by this mechanism may be crucial in order to decide if this heat source has to be taken into account in modelling lava flows. The theoretical aspects will be studied by collaboration between the Universities of Bari and Bologna. The complexity in the development of theoretical models, the necessity to check the models against the experimental data collected by the group of Munich, the need to implement the obtained results with the simulator of lava flows developed by the RU of Catania, suggest to involve in the project a new young researcher, to employ full time. For this reasons and taking into account that two people belonging to the RU will finish their contracts with the University during the next year, we propose to fund a contract for a young researcher. In this case an amount of money, corresponding to a contract for a young researcher (20000 Euros for the contract of work, 4000 Euros for other expenses for each phase of the project), will be transferred to the University of Bologna. Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 1 st year 1 st half-year 1. Experimental data concerning thermal properties of lava 2. Dynamical models with non linear rheology 2 nd half-year 3. Model for crust formation Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 2 nd year 1 st half-year 1. Experimental data concerning rheological properties of lava 251

76 2. Model to estimate the lava flow rate from satellite images 2 nd half-year 3. Study of phenomena associated with lava flows (levee formation, tube formation, ephemeral vents) 4. Implementation of the achieved results in the lava flows simulator Financial Request (in Euro) First Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale Second Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 0,

77 Project V3 Lava Total Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale Curriculum of the Scientific Responsible Andrea Tallarico graduated in physics cum laude in the University of Bologna in In 1995 he obtained PhD degree in physics from the University of Bologna. In 1995 he obtained a fellowship in physics of volcanism at the University of Bologna. He was university researcher since 1997 in the University of Bari. Since 2002 he is associate professor of physics of the Earth in the University of Bari. Since 2003 he is member of the Scientific Council of "Dottorato di Ricerca" in Earth Science established at University of Bari. His research activity is carried out in the fields of physics of the volcanism, seismology and tectonophysics. He was principal investigator in research projects funded by ASI (Italian Space Agency). 5 most relevant publications of RU M. Dragoni, A. Tallarico, Temperature field and heat flow around an elliptical lava tube Journal of volcanology and geothermal research, 2007 doi: /j.jvolgeores Piombo, A., Tallarico, A., M. Dragoni M., Displacement, strain and stress fields due to shear and tensile dislocations in a viscoelastic half-space. Geophysical Journal International, 170, 3, , 2007 doi: /j x x Tallarico, A., M. Dragoni, and G. Zito, Evaluation of lava effusion rate and viscosity from other flow parameters J. Geophys. Res., 111, B11205, doi: /2005jb003762, Dragoni, M; Borsari, I; Tallarico, A., A model for the shape of lava flow fronts. J. Geophys. Res, Vol. 110, No. B9, B09203 doi: /2004jb003523, Tallarico, A., M. Dragoni, M. Anzidei, and A. Esposito, Modeling long-term ground deformation due to the cooling of a magma chamber: Case of Basiluzzo island, Aeolian Islands, Italy, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B12), 2568, doi: /2002jb002376,

78 RU V3/10 Project V3 - LAVA Realization of the lava flow invasion hazard map at Mt Etna and methods for its dynamic update Scientific Responsible: Valerio Tramutoli, Researcher, Università degli Studi della Basilicata, Dipartimento di Ingegneria e Fisica dell Ambiente, Via dell Ateneo Lucano, 10, Potenza. [email protected], tel e fax: RU Composition: Scientific Resp. Position Institution Man/Months Man/Months 1 st phase 2 nd phase Valerio Tramutoli Researcher DIFA-UNIBAS 3 3 Participants Position Institution Man/Months 1 st phase Man/Months 2 nd phase Nicola Pergola Researcher IMAA-CNR 2 2 Francesco Marchese Research DIFA-UNIBAS 3 3 Fellow Giuseppe Mazzeo PhD student DIFA-UNIBAS 2 2 Giuseppe Baldassarre PhD student DIFA-UNIBAS 2 2 Carolina Aliano PhD student DIFA-UNIBAS 2 2 Mariano Lisi PhD student DIFA-UNIBAS 2 2 Carolina Filizzola Researcher IMAA-CNR 2 2 Rosita Corrado Contract Res. DIFA-UNIBAS 2 2 Teodosio Lacava Researcher IMAA-CNR 2 2 Rossana Paciello Research IMAA-CNR 2 2 Fellow Sara L. C. Grimaldi Research IMAA-CNR 2 2 Fellow Mariapia Faruolo Research Fellow IMAA-CNR 2 2 Description of Activity The Research Unit will contribute to the project mainly to Task 2 and Task 5, developing and validating up to a pre-operative level, a Robust Satellite Techniques (RST), for realtime detection and monitoring of hot spots related to volcanic eruptions suitable to: - follow space-time evolution of lava flows - monitor relative variation of the thermally emitted signal - estimate lava effusion rate The possibility to produce early warning for impending eruption will be also evaluated and tested also by exploit the analysis of available long-term satellite records. 254

79 Project V3 Lava TASK 2 Numerical Simulations and Satellite Techniques WP 2.3 Development of techniques for hotspot detection. WP 2.4 Development of techniques for lava effusion rate measurements The RST approach for automated detection of thermal features related to volcanic activity (Pergola et al., 2004) demonstrated a very high reliability (false alarms rate < 2%) and a high sensitivity even toward very low (and pre-eruptive, see also Di Bello et al., 2004) thermal variations. Its implementation on NOAA/AVHRR satellite data has been successfully experimented on Italian volcanoes in the framework of several research projects and, in particular on Mount Etna volcano during the previous DPC-INGV volcanological project. In this task the advanced possibilities offered by EOS/MODIS in terms of higher dynamical range in the MIR and higher spatial resolution in the VIS spectral regions will be exploited in order to improve lava affected pixels identification (reducing saturation problems) and lava flow mapping integrating MIR (at 1 km) with VIS (at 250m) observations. The extended dynamic range offered by MODIS in the MIR will be also exploited to better monitor relative variations of the lava thermally emitted signal trying to discriminate, within each image pixel, the lava temperature, from the lava extension, contribute to the measured signal. Similar positive impacts are expected from MODIS, on the determination of effusion rate estimation using traditional (e.g. Harris et al. 1997) or improved, RST based, approaches. Moreover coupling AVHRR with MODIS based data, the frequency of lava map updating will be also improved up to 3 hours and more. AVHRR and MODIS data are directly received and routinely processed at RU labs where multi-years datasets are also available. During the first year of the project a specific processing chain for Etna thermal activity monitoring will be activated in order to achieve: - improved algorithms for hot spots detection (to obtain better effusive rate estimations) based on MODIS - a completely automated generation of MODIS+AVHRR based products TASK 5 Scenario Forecast and Hazard Mitigation WP Hot-spot detection in near real-time WP Effusion rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery The second year of the project will be mainly devoted to the validation of both, algorithms and product generation chain, and to their integration into DPC interface. Algorithm test will be performed at first on selected event in the past then in near real-time in a pre-operative context. Product chain generation as well as their transfer into the DPC operative system will be also planned, implemented and tested in a pre-operative way in this phase. Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 1 st year 1st half-year 1. improved algorithms for hot spots detection based on AVHRR 2nd half-year 2. improved algorithms for hot spots detection based on MODIS 255

80 3. completely automated generation of MODIS+AVHRR based products (for lava mapping, effusive rate estimation, etc.) Contribute by the RU to the general Project products 2 nd year 1st half-year 1. Implementation and test of automated processing chain for satellite product generation. 2nd half-year 2. Design, implementation and test of interfaces for the integration of satellite based products into the DPC operational system. Financial Request (in Euro) First Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 0, Second Phase Categoria di spesa Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 1) Spese di personale 0,00 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 0,

81 Project V3 Lava Total Categoria di spesa 1) Spese di personale Importo previsto a Finanziato dal Dipartimento b Finanziato dall'organismo c = a-b 2) Spese per missioni ,00 3) Costi amministrativi (solo per Coordinatori di Progetto) 4) Spese per studi e ricerche ed altre prestazioni professionali ,00 5) Spese per servizi 6) Materiale tecnico durevole e di consumo 0,00 0, ,00 7) Spese indirette (spese generali) ,00 Totale 0, Curriculum of the Scientific Responsible Valerio Tramutoli Date of birth: 28 December 1957, Nationality: Italian. Degree in Physics at the Rome La Sapienza University. Since 1990 he is at the University of Basilicata as senior researcher (since 1993) where holds (since 1997) the courses on General Physics and Satellite Remote Sensing for Natural and Environmental Hazards, at the Faculties of Engineering and Sciences. Since 1991 he has been visiting scientist in the main international centres involved in the Earth s observation by satellite and has taken part as coordinator, PI or co-investigator in several national and international projects as well as international scientific groups (in the framework of EU, ESA, ASI, EUMETSAT, NASA, NASDA EO, IGOS activities). He has been among the few italian scientists invited to partecipate, since 2001, to the IGOS-Geohazard Core Team committed by IGOS Partners to define the new observational strategies for geo-hazards mitigation for the next decade. Since 2001 is the responsible of LADSAT (Satellite Data Analysis) Laboratory at DIFA. His research activity has been focused on the development of new satellite sensors and techniques in the field of natural, environmental and industrial hazards monitoring (and mitigation) by satellite remote sensing. In this framework since 1998 he proposed the general RAT (now named RST) approach. 5 most relevant publications of RU Filizzola, C., Lacava, T., Marchese, F., Pergola, N., Scaffidi, I., Tramutoli, V., Assessing RAT (Robust AVHRR Technique) performances for volcanic ash cloud detection and monitoring in near real-time: The 2002 eruption of Mt. Etna (Italy). Remote Sensing of The Environment, 107, Pergola, N., Tramutoli, V., Scaffidi, I., Lacava, T., Marchese, F., 2004, Improving volcanic ash clouds detection by a robust satellite technique, Remote Sensing of Environment, Volume 90, Issue 1, pp Pergola, N., Marchese, F., Tramutoli, V., 2004, Automated detection of thermal features of active volcanoes by means of Infrared AVHRR records. Remote Sensing of Environment, Volume 93, Issue 3, pp

82 Di Bello G., Filizzola C., Lacava T., Marchese F., Pergola N., Pietrapertosa C., Piscitelli S., Scaffidi I., Tramutoli V., 2004, Robust Satellite Techniques for Volcanic and Seismic Hazards Monitoring, Annals of Geophysics, 47, (1) Marchese, F., Telesca, L., Pergola, N. (2006). Investigating the temporal fluctuations in satellite advanced very high resolution radiometer thermal signals measured in the volcanic area of Etna (Italy). Fluctuations and Noise Letters, 6, no.3,