May 17 th Future NB Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

Transcription

1 May 17 th 2013 Future NB Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

2 Contents Executive Summary Introduction Shale Gas Lifecycle and Supply Chain Core Activities Assessment Industry Survey Industry Readiness Opportunities & Recommendations Path to Participation and Competition Closing Remarks Appendix A: Overview of Shale Gas Appendix B: Workforce Summary Appendix C: Industry Survey Appendix D: Economic Benefits Appendix E: Regulatory Review 1 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

3 Executive Summary 2 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

4 Executive Summary Objective The objective of this study was to identify where opportunities reside for New Brunswick companies to benefit from potential shale gas development Approach The approach to undertaking this work included efforts to: Identify the lifecycle, supply chain and core activities of a single wellhead ( One Well Model ) Survey and interview industry and key stakeholders to determine awareness Evaluate readiness of New Brunswick organizations and identify gaps in available shale gas supply chain activities Prioritize opportunities for companies to participate Identify the economic benefits of shale gas under various development scenarios Why Deloitte To complete its work Deloitte relied on its unconventional gas practice, global energy and resources group and past experience completing industry studies 3 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

5 Executive Summary Findings The development of the shale gas industry in New Brunswick would result in significant economic benefits realized through direct employment and opportunities for local supply chain related companies The following benefits were determined: $13 million CAD in overall development cost per well 21.2 Full Time Equivalent (FTE) jobs per well Readiness To date the shale gas industry in New Brunswick is immature with limited resources actively under development New Brunswick has well developed industrial services and many of the activities which serve other sectors are well positioned to participate in the shale gas industry New Brunswick is ready to participate in many core activities however, in most of the highly specialized shale gas activities New Brunswick is not yet ready 4 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

6 Executive Summary Opportunities Opportunities exists for New Brunswick companies to capitalize on activities in the development of shale gas Immediate opportunities exist in a number of core activities Mid Term Opportunities may exist should organizations address limitations in either capacity or capability Recommendations Focused efforts to educate operations of all sizes on the requirements for participation and supply chain management processes within the shale gas industry Develop a strategy to promote collaboration between organizations in order to achieve critical capacity Evaluate labour resources and develop strategies on how to best prepare available workforce for new opportunities 5 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

7 Introduction 6 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

8 Introduction: Background and Scope Given the active and important discussions occurring in New Brunswick on shale gas the New Brunswick Business Council requested FutureNB explore the impact of shale gas development for New Brunswick FutureNB (FNB) retained Deloitte to conduct, under FNB s guidance, an economic impact study to help identify the opportunities available for New Brunswick companies to take part in the shale gas supply chain The following items were in scope for the study: Which products and services are required by developers of shale gas to support a productive shale gas wellhead To what extent will these products and services will be required at each phase of the lifecycle Which products and services can be supplied by existing New Brunswick companies The labour force/skills required to support shale gas development and what gaps exist The implications of different levels of well development (low, medium, high) Note: 1. To date, shale gas development in New Brunswick has been limited; thus the findings in this report are based on directional estimates of capital and operating costs from other jurisdictions that have undertaken development in shale gas. 2.All figures are subject to revision and should be revisited should meaningful shale gas development and production initiate in the Province 7 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

9 Introduction: Approach In completing the study, Deloitte combined both primary and secondary research activities: Primary - Industry survey of companies within the shale gas supply chain to ascertain their awareness, capability and readiness to partake in the development of the shale gas industry - Interviews with resource developers, industry associations and stakeholder organizations to validate findings and provide input and context to study development - Estimating the economic impacts of shale gas in terms of development cost, GDP and job creation* - A detailed regulatory review of five jurisdictions was undertaken to determine how New Brunswick regulations might impact supply chain activities Secondary - Secondary research efforts contributed significantly to the study with numerous academic sources as well as documented experiences from other jurisdictions In addition, Deloitte leveraged its extensive Oil and Gas industry practices in both the US and Canada to test and validate information and assumptions *using Statistics Canada s Input/Output model which is a proven model to estimate the economic effects of a given change in the economy 8 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

10 Overview of Shale Gas: New Brunswick The Province of New Brunswick has shale gas deposits estimated between trillion cubic feet (tcf), which could represent as much as 10% of Canadian identified resources Given the experience of other jurisdictions, the economic impact of shale gas development to the New Brunswick economy would be meaningful Development of shale gas resources in New Brunswick has been modest to date with 30 Natural gas wells currently producing in the province* New Brunswick Gas Licencees** Corridor Resources Southwestern Energy Company Contact Exploration Inc. Petrolia Petroworth Beneficial LLC Windsor Energy Inc. Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Irving Oil Ltd *Canadian Association Petroleum Producers - Status of Shale Gas Development in New Brunswick - Feb 2012 ** Government of New Brunswick Oil and Natural Gas Licences/Leases Map 9 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

11 Shale Gas Lifecycle and Supply Chain 10 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

12 Shale Gas Supply Chain: Value Map Focus of Study: Shale Gas Development Lifecycle and supporting Supply Chain Upstream Development of the Shale Gas Wellhead Midstream Gathering, Processing, Marketing & Distribution Downstream Distribution to Gas Consumers Energy Non-Renewable Resources Natural Gas Oil Coal Oil Sands Renewable Resources Wind Solar Water Nuclear Natural Gas Gas Resources Shale Gas Coal Bed Methane Tight Gas Conventional Other Pre-Drilling Drilling Production Identify Gas Resource Site Planning & Preparation Drilling, Casing & Cement Completion & Stimulation Commercial Recovery End of Life Transmission Pipeline Gathering Gas Processing Facility Distribution Lines International LNG Industrial Commercial Domestic Household Pipeline 11 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

13 Shale Gas Lifecycle: Introduction Activities within the life cycle of a shale gas wellhead are typically classified into three stages: Pre-Drilling, Drilling and Production The stages provide a distinction in activities and developers decide during each stage whether the wellhead is viable enough to continue development Stage 1: Pre Drilling Stage 2: Drilling Stage 3: Production The location of shale deposits can greatly impact development costs and vary greatly depending on factors such as depth of the required well, ease of access to the well pad, the number of wells on a site, etc. 12 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

14 Shale Gas Lifecycle: Distinct Phases Within the three stages of the lifecycle there are six distinct phases that exist. Each phase contains specific levels of development cost, duration and capability About each phase Pre-Drilling Identify Gas Resource Site Planning & Preparation Land acquisition and the securing of seismic and drilling location permits Acquire surface leasing and permits and determination of specific well pad requirements Initial geophysical and geochemical surveys are completed as required Site excavation planning and preparation, drilling of initial mouse hole is completed Initial vertical drilling to obtain core samples to evaluate shale formations completed Safety procedures, environment and regulatory requirements & emergency response plans Drilling Drilling, Casing & Cement Completion & Stimulation Drilling rig and equipment mobilization, delivery of required drilling fluids and mud Drill rig and equipment is demobilized, installation of permanent wellhead complete Blow out preventer installation, surface and intermediate casing cemented into wellbore Stimulation equipment is mobilized onsite, reservoir horizons perforated and stimulated Wellbore drilled to total depth, potential reservoirs identified, production casing installed Demobilization of stimulation equipment, producing zones tested for commercial recovery potential Production Commercial Recovery End of Life After well casing, cementing and stimulation services completed, viability of well confirmed Closure of well, removal of equipment and disposal/treatment of any remaining production waste Installation of surface facilities and ancillary services are competed Pipeline infrastructure is installed and tied to mainline Closure and remediation of site Re-contouring of well site and access roads, removal of pipeline and ancillary facilities 13 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

15 Shale Gas Supply Chain: Overview The image below illustrates the core activities required within the shale gas supply chain at each stage and phase of the lifecycle. The slides which follow provide specific detail on activities within each phase, including critical inputs and workforce requirements Phase Stage Pre - Drilling Typical Duration: 1-2 years Development Cost: $1M to $2M Identify Gas Resource Site Planning & Preparation Drilling Typical Duration: 4-6 months Development Cost: $8M to $10M Drilling, Casing & Cement Completion & Stimulation Production Typical Duration: 6-25 years Development Cost: $2M to $3M Commercial Recovery End of Life Survey & Permitting Activity Environmental Survey & Approval Drilling Mobilization Blowout Preventer Manifold Equipment Mobilization Supervision & Misc. Operations Install Surface Facilities Equipment Mobilization Clear & Survey Shot Lines Safety & Planning Land Preparation Supervision Stimulation Services Security & Fire Protection Install Pipeline Supervision & Misc. Operations Core Activities Shot Hole Drilling Data Recording Site Survey & Construction License, Permitting & Lease Agreements Vertical Drilling Directional Drilling Systems & Controls Equipment Rentals Tubing Services Well Test & Flowback Recovery Installation of Wellhead Supervision & Maintenance Operations Well Plugging & Field Services Land Prep & Restoration Casing Services Fluids & Cutting Disposal Cementing Development costs can vary greatly depending on various factors such as; location of shale deposit, depth of required well, ease of access to well pad, number of wells on a site, etc. 14 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

16 Shale Gas Supply Chain: Pre Drilling Scorecard Pre - Drilling Typical Duration: 1-2 years Development Cost: $1M to $2M Drilling Typical Duration: 4-6 months Development Cost: $8M to $10M Production Typical Duration: 6-25 years Development Cost: $2M to $3M Identify Gas Resource Site Planning & Preparation Drilling, Casing & Cement Completion & Stimulation Commercial Recovery End of Life Survey & Permitting Activity $450K Typical Duration 1 to 2 years Typical Duration 60 to 90 days Environmental Survey & Approval $250K Clear & Survey Shot Lines $100K Development Cost $800K to $1M Development Cost $400K to $600K Safety & Planning $100K Shot Hole Drilling $150K Workforce Requirements 15 High Skilled, 30 Medium Skilled FTE ~3 to 5 Workforce Requirements 5 High Skilled, 15 Medium Skilled FTE ~4 to 6 Site Survey & Construction $150K Data Recording $200K Key Inputs Geophysical & Seismic Survey, Data Logging & Analysis, Well Site Selection Key Inputs Environmental Impact Assessment, Site Civil & Construction Operations License, Permitting & Lease Agreements $50K Development costs can vary greatly depending on various factors such as; location of shale deposit, depth of required well, ease of access to well pad, number of wells on a site, etc. 15 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

17 Shale Gas Supply Chain: Drilling Scorecard Pre - Drilling Typical Duration: 1-2 years Development Cost: $1M to $2M Drilling Typical Duration: 4-6 months Development Cost: $8M to $10M Production Typical Duration: 6-25 years Development Cost: $2M to $3M Identify Gas Resource Site Planning & Preparation Drilling, Casing & Cement Completion & Stimulation Commercial Recovery End of Life Drilling Mobilization $650K Land Preparation $50K Manifold/ Wellhead $100K Supervision $350K Typical Duration 45 to 100 days Typical Duration 60 to 90 days Equipment Mobilization $50K Supervision & Ops $125K Vertical Drilling $1.3M Systems & Controls $250K Development Cost $5-6 Million Development Cost $3-4 Million Stimulation Services $1.5M Security/Fire Protection $50K Directional Drilling $550K Equipment Rentals $500K Workforce Requirements 8 High Skilled, 31 Medium Skilled FTE ~3 to 4 Workforce Requirements 4 High Skilled, 71 Medium Skilled FTE ~10 to 11 Tubing Services $500K Installation of Wellhead $50K Casing $800K Cementing $200K Fluids & Disposal $800K Key Inputs Drilling Rig, Steel Casing, Cement, Drill Mud, Water, Aggregate, Fuel Key Inputs Stimulation Equipment, Fluids, Sand, Water, Propane, Perforation, Flow-back Storage, Wellhead Flowback Recovery $350K Development costs can vary greatly depending on various factors such as; location of shale deposit, depth of required well, ease of access to well pad, number of wells on a site, etc. 16 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

18 Shale Gas Supply Chain: Production Scorecard Pre - Drilling Typical Duration: 1-2 years Development Cost: $1M to $2M Drilling Typical Duration: 4-6 months Development Cost: $8M to $10M Production Typical Duration: 6-25 years Development Cost: $2M to $3M Identify Gas Resource Site Planning & Preparation Drilling, Casing & Cement Completion & Stimulation Commercial Recovery End of Life Install Surface Facilities $450K Typical Duration 5 to 20 years Typical Duration 1 to 5 years Equipment Mobilization $50K Development Cost $1-2 Million Development Cost $ K Supervision & Misc. Operations $100K Install Pipeline $1.1M Workforce Requirements 1 High Skilled, 10 Medium Skilled FTE ~1 to 2 Workforce Requirements 1 High Skilled, 16 Medium Skilled FTE ~1 to 2 Well Plugging & Field Services $350K Supervision & Maintenance Operations $150K Key Inputs Surface Facilities, Pipeline, Work-overs & Operations Key Inputs Well Plugging, Abandonment, Reclamation & Re-vegetation Land Prep & Restoration $300K Development costs can vary greatly depending on various factors such as; location of shale deposit, depth of required well, ease of access to well pad, number of wells on a site, etc. 17 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

19 Core Activity Assessment 18 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

20 Core Activity Assessment: Introduction Assessment Criteria Development Cost: Degree of investment/cost required for the activity Specialization - Degree of specialization required when considering: Workforce General Labourer vs. PhD. / Engineer Assets 1 Ton truck vs. Lateral drilling rig Inputs Water vs. Stimulation sand PURSUE High value and lower levels of specialization Proactive pursuit CAPITALIZE Low value with low level of specialized Capitalize on logical opportunities ASSESS High value but high degree of specialization. Careful assessment REACT Low in value and higher degree of specialization Case by case determination 19 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

21 Core Activity Assessment Pre Drilling Identify Gas Resource Site Planning & Preparation In the Pre-Drilling stage the bulk of opportunities are of low value, and many represent highly specialized activities. As a result, opportunities to participate are typically limited and require careful evaluation # Activity Dev. Cost Specialization 1 Geological Survey and Permitting Activity $450,000 High PURSUE ASSESS 2 Environmental Survey and Approval $300,000 Medium $0 $600,000 $450,000* $450, Geological Data Recording Site Survey and Construction $200,000 High $150,000 Medium 5 Shot Hole Drilling $150,000 Medium CAPITALIZE REACT 6 Clearing and Survey Shot Lines $100,000 Medium 7 Safety and Planning $100,000 Low 8 Licensing and Lease Agreements $50,000 Low *Total value of activities within quadrant 20 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

22 Core Activity Assessment Drilling Drilling, Casing & Cement Completion & Stimulation The drilling stage offers a number of opportunities given the volume of overall services required to support this stage of well development. Given the significant mix of activities several opportunities may be present PURSUE CAPITALIZE $500,00 $350,000 $6,950,000* $1,400,000 *Total value of activities within quadrant ASSESS REACT # Activity Dev. Cost Specialization 1 Stimulation Services $2,200,000 High 2 Vertical Drilling $1,400,000 Medium 3 Fluid and Cutting Disposal $750,000 Medium 4 Casing $750,000 Medium 5 Drill Mobilization $650,000 High 6 Directional Drilling $700,000 High 7 Equipment Rentals $500,000 Low 8 Tubing Services $500,000 High 9 Supervision (Drilling) $350,000 High 10 Well Test and Recovery Flowback $350,000 High 11 Systems and Controls $250,000 High 12 Cementation $200,000 Medium 13 Supervision (Stimulation) $150,000 High 14 Blowout Out Preventer Manifold and Wellheads $100,000 High 15 Equipment Mobilization $100,000 Medium 16 Security and Fire Protection $100,000 Medium 17 Land Preparation $100,000 Medium 18 Installation of Wellhead $50,000 High 21 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

23 Core Activity Assessment Production Commercial Recovery End of Life The Production stage would typically represent few opportunities given the high degree of specialization required for most activities. However, given the capability of several activities with other industries, evaluation may reveal opportunities # Activity Dev. Cost Specialization 1 Pipeline $1,150,000 High PURSUE ASSESS 2 Surface Facilities $500,000 Medium 3 Field Services and Well Plugging $350,000 Medium $0 $1,650,000* 4 Land Prep Restoration and $300,000 Medium $50,000 $900,000 5 Supervision (Recovery) $150,000 High 6 Supervision (End of Life) $100,000 Medium CAPITALIZE REACT 7 Equipment Mobilization $50,000 Medium *Total value of activities within quadrant 22 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

24 Activity Assessment: Summary Activities within the shale gas supply chain present varying levels of opportunity for New Brunswick operations. The following categories and actions result from the evaluation of these activities: Core Activities Pursue Pursue Activities represent significant value and require a lower degree of specialization. Action: Proactive pursuit of these opportunities is recommended. Build relationships, understand procurement process, identify competitive landscape Equipment Rentals Capitalize Capitalize Activities represent lower value but lower levels of specialization. Significant numbers of these activities may be preexisting capabilities and may only be constrained by capacity Action: Address constraints, Build relationships, understand procurement process, identify competitive alternatives, build awareness Safety and planning Licensing and lease agreements Equipment mobilization Security and fire protection Land preparation Wellhead installation Environmental survey and approval Site survey and construction Assess Assess: Activities which represent significant value however, require a higher degree of specialization. Action: Assess investment required to participate. Determine barriers to entry, identify project risks Geological survey and permitting activity Stimulation services Vertical drilling Fluid and cutting disposal Casing Drill mobilization Tubing services Pipeline Surface facilities Directional drilling React React Activities represent a lower levels of value but a high degree of specialization. Action: Determine if participation is feasible at a modest levels of investment, identify competitors and barriers to entry. Geological data recording Well testing and flowback recovery Shot hole drilling Systems and Clearing and survey controls shot lines Cementing Supervision (Drilling Manifold /wellhead and Stimulation) Field services Land prep and restoration Supervision (Recovery and End of life) 23 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

25 Industry Survey 24 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

26 Industry Survey: Introduction An industry survey was undertaken to better determine: Business Preparation The amount of planning which has taken place thus far in preparation for shale gas development Business Attitudes What companies think about the development of shale gas and its potential for their business Overall Readiness of NB What services are currently provided in New Brunswick and at what level of capacity and capability 25 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

27 Industry Survey: Overview An survey invitation to over 450 companies, representing a cross section of industries and services relevant to shale gas, was distributed to help determine: Business Preparation - The amount of planning which has taken place thus far in preparation for shale gas development Attitudes and Awareness - What companies think about the development of shale gas and its potential for their business Overall readiness - What services are currently provided in New Brunswick and at what level of capacity and capability Respondents represented most core services required to support shale gas development, and the bulk of those identifying as other provide services that are transferable to shale gas 25% Respondents Percentage 20% 15% 10% 5% 16% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 6% 4% 3% 20% 0% Site Planning, Preparation, and Construction Professional Services Industrial Services and Supply General Trucking and Transportation Geophysical and Seismic Services Drilling, Casing, and Cementation Well Completion and Stimulation Services Natural Gas Commercial Recovery and Field Operations Well End-of- Life Oil and Gas Field Services *Results by service/industry have a high margin of error, thus poor reliability, given low response rates within individual services/industries and thus were not examined in detail given responses will not be representative of the population Other 26 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

28 Industry Survey: Head Office Location 86% of businesses surveyed self identified their home office location to be located in NB 100% 90% 86% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4% 4% 4% 3% Alberta Nova Scotia Ontario Quebec New Brunswick 27 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

29 Industry Survey: Business Readiness 93% of respondents identified a level of readiness or willingness to participate in shale gas development in NB % % 23% 7% 0 Our company is a supplier in the Shale Gas Industry today Our company is not currently a supplier in the Shale Gas Industry, but our company has the capability to be a supplier Our company does not currently have the capability to be a supplier in the Shale Gas Industry, but could participate with a shift in company focus Our company does not participate in the Shale Gas Industry and has no plans to participate in the future 28 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

30 Industry Survey: Business Readiness 56% closely following shale gas development, 62% believe their company will benefit Strongly Agree 32% Strongly Agree 37% 56% 62% Agree 24% Agree 25% Neither Agree nor Disagree 33% Neither Agree nor Disagree 32% Disagree 4% Disagree 4% Strongly Disagree 8% Strongly Disagree 3% 0% 20% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 29 Company has closely followed the development of shale gas in NB Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick My company will benefit from the development of shale gas

31 Industry Survey: Business Readiness 27% have a strategic plan, 38% have considered strategic partnerships Strongly Agree 14% Strongly Agree 24% 27% 38% Agree 13% Agree 14% Neither Agree nor Disagree 41% Neither Agree or Disgree 39% Disagree 17% Disagree 13% Strongly Disagree 11% Strongly Disagree 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 30 Company has a strategic plan to participate in shale gas development Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick Company has considered strategic partnerships

32 Industry survey: Workforce Requirements While respondents indicated capability to participate and deliver service to support shale gas development, workforce gaps exist that could impact their ability to service high levels of development if unaddressed Workplace challenges currently being faced Most respondents indicated they face multiple challenges to seizing opportunities to support shale gas, with the most common challenge being lack of direct industry experience. 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 26% Direct industry experience 19% Availability of required workforce 12% 12% 12% Industry skills Willingness to do the work / hours Retention of skilled workforce 10% Technical degree / certification 3% Interpersonal skills Education/training programs needed most in order to support shale gas development 67% of respondents believe some degree of training would help their firm to participate in shale gas development, however there is disparity amongst those surveyed as to the type of training required 7% Other 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 33% None 25% Trade / Industry Certification 15% 1-2 Year Technical Certificate or Diploma 11% Graduate Degree / Professional Certification (e.g. P. Eng) 8% 8% 4 Year College / University Undergraduate Degree Program Other 31 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

33 Industry Survey: Findings At a summary level, responses indicate there is willingness to support shale gas and that some preparations are being undertaken by companies to ready themselves to seize opportunities At present, there appears both capability and capacity to support low levels of development given that firms are currently providing most of the sub activities required to support shale gas - The low response rate across individual industries/services resulted in an inability to rely on the survey as a tool to test capacity and capability at a sub activity offering level 32 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

34 Industry Readiness 33 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

35 Industry Readiness: Overview The readiness of New Brunswick companies to support shale gas development was assessed by examining each core service within the three stages of the lifecycle and assigning a readiness rating based on both the Capability and Capacity of New Brunswick companies to deliver each core activity as defined and measured by the following: Criteria As defined by As measured by Capability Past or transferable experience Degree to which current New Brunswick companies have performed services for shale gas or similar services required to support shale gas Survey results Interviews Industry Database Skilled Workforce Degree to which companies have FTEs employed in occupations that support the delivery of this service Industry Database Capacity Current ability to support multiple wells Degree to which there are a sufficient number of New Brunswick companies identified as currently delivering this service A larger number of firms delivering this service improves the likely capacity to support shale gas Survey results Industry Database Ability to scale Degree to which firms performing this service have ability to scale operations via base business, access to capital Industry Database 34 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

36 Industry Readiness Pre Drilling Identify Gas Resource Site Planning & Preparation Industry readiness in the Pre-drilling stage is relatively high. Many organizations possess the capabilities required to participate and may only be constrained by overall capacity. Some specialized capabilities may not be present in advance or more robust activity in shale gas Medium Medium MEDIUM READINESS HIGH READINESS LOW READINESS MEDIUM READINESS Medium Medium 35 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

37 Industry Readiness Drilling Drilling, Casing & Cement Completion & Stimulation Industry readiness in the Drilling stage is widely varied. Several organizations possess the capabilities required to participate and may only be constrained by capacity. However, some very specialized activities are not yet active in the region and present low levels of readiness Medium Medium Medium MEDIUM READINESS HIGH READINESS LOW READINESS MEDIUM READINESS Medium 36 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

38 Industry Readiness Production Commercial Recovery End of Life Industry readiness in the Production stage is mixed. Several organizations possess the capabilities required to participate and there appears sufficient levels of capacity to support activities for this stage Medium Medium MEDIUM READINESS HIGH READINESS LOW READINESS MEDIUM READINESS Medium Medium 37 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

39 Industry Readiness Key Findings New Brunswick is least ready to participate in the highly specialized oil and gas activities within the Drilling stage Core Activities Geological Survey and Permitting Cementing Land Preparation Environmental Survey and Approval Casing Pipeline High Site Survey and Construction Safety and Planning Licensing and Lease Agreements Equipment Rentals Security and Fire Protection Equipment Mobilization Surface Facilities Medium Shot Hole Drilling Geological Data Recording Clearing and Surveying Shot Lines Well Test and Flowback Recovery Installation of Wellhead Blowout Preventer and Wellhead Manifolds Vertical Drilling Fluid and Cutting Disposal Supervision (End of Life) Field Services and Well Plugging Stimulation Services Supervision (Drilling) Supervision (Recovery) Low Systems and Controls Directional Drilling Tubing Services Supervision (Stimulation) 38 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

40 Opportunities & Recommendations 39 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

41 Opportunity and Recommendations Method : Opportunities were evaluated under the following considerations Development Cost Specialization Activity Assessment General Readiness Capability Capacity Opportunity 40 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

42 Opportunities Pre Drilling Identify Gas Resource Site Planning & Preparation The Pre-Drilling stage presents achievable opportunities for organizations to participate in the shale gas supply chain. With organizations demonstrating high levels of readiness, opportunities are likely accessible # Activity Opportunity Assessment PURSUE ASSESS 1 Geological Survey and Permitting Activity Evaluate competitive advantage. determine investment required, assess risk 2 Environmental Survey and Approval Gage appeal of opportunity, level of investment, barriers to entry $0 $450,000* 3 Geological Data Recording Determine operational fit, level of investment, address constraints $600,000 $450,000 4 Site Survey and Construction Gage appeal of opportunity, level of investment, barriers to entry CAPITALIZE REACT 5 Shot Hole Drilling Determine ease of implementation, level of investment, address constraints 6 Clearing and Survey Shot Lines Determine ease of implementation, level of investment, address constraints 7 Safety and Planning Identify opportunities, open dialogue, identify barriers to entry 8 Licensing and Lease Agreements Identify opportunities, open dialogue, identify barriers to entry Opportunity Assessment: High Medium Low *Total value of activities within quadrant 41 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

43 Opportunities Drilling Drilling, Casing & Cement Completion & Stimulation The Drilling stage presents a wide variety of opportunities predominantly based on levels of readiness. Several high value activities may be too specialized, while other, less specialized activities, present more realistic opportunities # Activity Opportunity Assessment 42 PURSUE CAPITALIZE Opportunity Assessment: $500,00 $350,000 High Medium Low $6,950,000* $1,400,000 ASSESS REACT *Total value of activities within quadrant Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick 1 Stimulation Services Evaluate capability, 2 Vertical Drilling Assess constraints and investment required 3 Assess constraints and Fluid and Cutting Disposal investment required 4 Casing Evaluate competitive advantage and investment, assess risk 5 Drill Mobilization Evaluate competitive advantage and investment, assess risk 6 Directional Drilling Evaluate capability 7 Equipment Rentals Evaluate competitive advantage develop relationships 8 Tubing Services Evaluate capability 9 Supervision (Drilling) Evaluate capability 10 Well Test and Flowback Recovery Assess constraints and investment required 11 Systems and Controls Evaluate capability 12 Cementing 13 Supervision (Stimulation) 14 Blowout Out Preventor Manifold and Wellheads 15 Equipment Mobilization 16 Security and Fire Protection 17 Land Preparation 18 Installation of Wellhead Evaluate competitive advantage and investment, assess risk Evaluate capability likelihood of delivery Assess constraints and investment required Evaluate competitive advantage develop relationships Evaluate competitive advantage develop relationships Evaluate competitive advantage develop relationships Assess constraints and investment required

44 Opportunities Production Drilling, Casing & Cement Completion & Stimulation The Production stage presents a mix of opportunities for organizations to participate in the supply chain. Some activities are likely outside current skill sets while others activities present immediate opportunities due to high levels of readiness # Activity Opportunity Assessment 1 Pipeline Evaluate opportunity, assess risk PURSUE ASSESS 2 Surface Facilities Evaluate competitive advantage and investment, assess risk 3 Field Services and Well Plugging Evaluate capability $0 $50,000 $1,650,000* $900,000 4 Land Prep and Restoration Evaluate competitive advantage and investment, assess risk 5 Supervision (Recovery) Evaluate capability 6 Supervision (End of Life) Assess constraints and investment required CAPITALIZE REACT 7 Equipment Mobilization Evaluate competitive advantage develop relationships 43 Opportunity Assessment: High Medium Low *Total value of activities within quadrant Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

45 Opportunities: Summary New Brunswick presents tangible opportunities to support the development of shale gas. Opportunities range from industrial support activities to highly complex activities Phase Stage Pre - Drilling Typical Duration: 1-2 years Development Cost: $1M to $2M Identify Gas Resource Site Planning & Preparation Drilling Typical Duration: 4-6 months Development Cost: $8M to $10M Drilling, Casing & Cement Completion & Stimulation Production Typical Duration: 6-45 years Development Cost: $2M to $3M Commercial Recovery End of Life Survey & Permitting Activity Environmental Survey & Approval Drilling Mobilization Blowout Preventer Manifold Equipment Mobilization Supervision & Misc. Operations Install Surface Facilities Equipment Mobilization Clear & Survey Shot Lines Safety & Planning Land Preparation Supervision Stimulation Services Security & Fire Protection Install Pipeline Supervision & Misc. Operations Core Activities Shot Hole Drilling Data Recording Site Survey & Construction License, Permitting & Lease Agreements Vertical Drilling Directional Drilling Systems & Controls Equipment Rentals Tubing Services Well Test & Flowback Recovery Installation of Wellhead Supervision & Maintenance Operations Well Plugging & Field Services Land Prep & Restoration Casing Services Fluids & Cutting Disposal Opportunity Assessment Cementation High Medium Low 44 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

46 Path to Participation and Competition 45 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

47 Competition: Key Players The North American oil and gas supply chain is as advanced and as competitive as any other found in the industry today. Tight/Shale Gas Oil Sands/Shale Directional Drilling Services Pressure Pumping Services 46 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

48 Path to Participation: Business Factors In addition to sectors which present the most appealing opportunities, equally important is understanding how organizations select their suppliers. These factors fall into three categories: Business Factors Long standing and trusted relationships Industry Certifications API Standards API standards that are referenced in regulations: API Monogram and Certification Programs API specifications API Monogram Licensees and Certified Companies The Annual Standards Plan information Business Practices - Health, Safety and Environmental Policies o Documentation and demonstrated processes - Capacity to delivery o Financial solvency Direct experience and performance Cost competitiveness 47 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

49 Path to Participation: Vertical Integration Supplier Sourcing Methodology Companies process for selecting suppliers may be: Directly leveraging long-term relationships or utilizing readily available local services and resources Contracting out all, or parts, of its activities to integrated third party service providers. Company s such as Halliburton and Baker Hughes. Third party service providers are often capable of conducting services in all phases of the life cycle Conduct all activities through owned subsidiaries. Although few examples exist, several organizations are well integrated from exploration to extraction Chesapeake EOG Significant vertical integration investment with the Chesapeake Oilfield Services subsidiary providing: - Drilling rigs - Stimulation services - Pressure pumping services - Compressor manufacturing and services - Rental tools - Heavy haul transportation Vertical integration investment through the in-house provision and ownership of : - Sand mines - Sand storage and loading facilities - Hydrocarbon Transport Future transportation flexibility via the use of companyowned rail facilities Use of vertical integration for select categories with subsidiary companies providing: - Drilling rigs (DeSoto Driiling) - Frac sand (DeSoto Sand) Southwestern Internal resources primarily services the Fayetteville play Open to considering additional vertical integration opportunities based on TCO Target 30-60% of cost structure from internal services including: - Drilling rigs - Stimulation services - Coil tubing - Rental tools - Transportation Pioneer Natural Resources Utilize internal services across four plays 48 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

50 Path to Participation: Sourcing Opportunities Outreach and Sourcing Opportunities Companies should reach out through known channels for identifying suppliers as well as identifying possible partners: Utilize online resources or vendor sourcing regimes: ISNetworld is an example of a web based resource gear toward connecting service providers and corporate customers. Identify potential strategic partnerships If direct experience is lacking or not easily transferable, a strategic partnerships with an experienced partner is an alternative Partners with specialized experience can be found through Petroleum Services Association of Canada to identify experienced providers within the area of expertise 49 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

51 Closing Remarks 50 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

52 Closing Remarks Summary Observations Significant opportunities for some transferable industrial and professional services activities Early mover opportunities for some key oilfield services Challenging learning curve for new supply chain development Demanding supplier qualification criteria exists Capacity constraints with significant increase in development activity anticipated Highly competitive supplier environment exists 51 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

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54 Appendix A: Overview of Shale Gas 53 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

55 Overview of Shale Gas: Introduction Shale gas is natural gas contained within a commonly occurring rock classified as shale Shale gas has become an increasingly important source of natural gas throughout the world as recent technology advancements have opened up vast amounts of reserves, which previously were not economically viable As a result of improved efficiency from lateral drilling (as shown in the image) rapid expansion of shale gas development has occurred throughout the world Aside from a low cost of production, Shale gas has a number of benefits which make it attractive relative to other sources of energy: Lower carbon footprint Relatively inexpensive Abundant As a result, shale gas development is expected to profoundly affect the international trade of energy resources and is expected to significantly alter energy consumption profiles of many jurisdictions* *Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, - World Energy Outlook Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick Figure Geology of Natural Gas Resources

56 Overview of Shale Gas: Global Resource Landscape A recent EIA study estimated technically recoverable shale gas exists within 48 basins in 32 countries, with North America representing the largest reserve opportunity in the world Total technically recoverable shale gas resources in the selected basins (6,622 trillion cu. ft.) is similar to total proven natural gas reserves globally (6,609 trillion cu. ft.) 2,500 Trillion cubic feet 2,000 1,500 1, Europe 347 1,931 North America , , ,225 Asia Australia Africa South America Proved Natural Gas Reserves Technically Recoverable Shale Gas Resources All information from U.S. Energy Information Administration, including the following: 1 Proved gas reserves: Oil and Gas Journal, Dec., 6, 2010, P U.S. data are from various EIA sources. The proved natural gas reserves number in this table is from the U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves, 2009 report, whereas the 245 trillion cubic feet estimate used in the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 report and cited on the previous page is from the previous year estimate. 55 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

57 Overview of Shale Gas: US Experience Shale gas development is having a material impact on the US economy and is forecasted to represent a larger percentage of growth in domestic resources over the next several decades and beyond 76% of global unconventional gas output in 2010 came from the US* 56 US shale gas direct employment is expected to grow from 600,000 to 870,000 jobs between 2010 and 2015** Contribution to US GDP is expected to grow from its 2010 level of 76 billion to 118 billion by 2015** In 2010 shale gas development contributed $18.6 billion to federal, state and local taxes and royalties in the US and is expected to grow to $57 billion by 2035 ** Direct capital expenditures are expected to grow from $33 billion to $48 billion by 2015 Unconventional gas will allow the US to become a net exporter of oil and gas by 2030* * US Energy Information Administration - World Energy Outlook 2012 ** IHS Global Insights The Economics and Employment Cont. - December 2011 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production, Trillion cubic feet

58 Overview of Shale Gas: Canada 13% of the global unconventional gas output came from Canada in 2010 (60 billion cubic meters)* Canada has an estimated available resource of 1111 trillion cubic feet (tcf) ** concentrated primarily in the western provinces 317,000 jobs are expected to be created across Canada by 2035*** The Natural Gas industry is expected to contribute $1.5 trillion to Canada s Gross Domestic Product over the next 25 years *** The Natural Gas industry is expected to generate $199 billion in royalties over the next 25 years*** Basins Direct investment is estimated to be Gas Plays Oil/Liquids Plays $386 billion between 2012 and 2035**** *Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, - World Energy Outlook 2012 **Canadian Society of Unconventional Gas An Overview of Canada s Natural Gas Resources - May 2010 ***Canadian Association Petroleum Producers - Status of Shale Gas Development in New Brunswick - Feb 2012 **** Conference Board of Canada The Role of Natural Gas in Powering Canada s Economy Dec 2012 Image from PacWest Consulting Group 57 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

59 Appendix B: Workforce Shale Gas 58 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

60 Shale Gas Workforce Summary One Well Workforce PHASE OCCUPATIONS MANHOURS FTE Identify Gas Resource Site Planning & Preparation Drilling, Casing and Cement Completion & Stimulation Commercial Recovery End of Life 45 Total Roles - 15 High Skilled Resources - 30 Medium Skilled Resources 20 Total Roles - 5 High Skilled Resources - 15 Medium Skilled Resources 40 Total Roles - 8 High Skilled Resources - 31Medium Skilled Resources 75 Total Roles - 4 High Skilled Resources - 71 Medium Skilled Resources 10 Total Roles - 1 High Skilled Resource - 10 Medium Skilled Resources 16 Total Roles - 1 High Skilled Resource - 16 Medium Skilled Resources Total 206 Total Roles Man-hours 21.2 FTE 59 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

61 Shale Gas Workforce Identify Gas Resource Conduct field surface reviews 2 high skilled resources 6 8 weeks Interpretation and mapping 2 high skilled resources 6 8 weeks Identify Gas Resource Geology Well-site Geologist 1 high skilled resource Duration of Well Development Laboratory Services 2 high skilled resources 8 12 weeks Geochemistry Conduct field sampling 2 high skilled resources 6 8 weeks Laboratory Services 2 high skilled resources 8 12 weeks Field data acquisition 1 high skilled resource 30 medium skilled 5 vibroseis trucks 3 4 weeks Geophysics Computer data processing 1 high skilled resource 2 weeks Interpretation and mapping 2 high skilled resources 3 4 weeks 60 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

62 Shale Gas Workforce Site Planning and Preparation Site Planning and Preparation Surface Lease Surface lease negotiations 2 high skilled resources 3 4 weeks Environmental Survey Civil Work Emergency Response Conduct field assessment 1 high skilled resource 3 4 weeks Licensing and permitting 3 medium skilled resources 2 days Emergency response planning 1 high skilled resource 3 4 weeks Site survey 1 high skilled resource 3 4 weeks Construction Heavy equipment 4 medium skilled resources 3 4 days Trucking 8 medium skilled resources 3 4 days 61 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

63 Shale Gas Workforce Drilling, Casing and Cement Drilling, Casing and Cement Drilling Operations Drilling consultant 1 high skilled resource Mud Work Mud logging 1 high skilled resource Duration of drilling activity Duration of drilling activity Rig Mobilization Rig movement activity 15 medium skilled resources 2 days Install Work Install blow out preventer 2 medium skilled resources.5 days Drill Vertical Drilling rig day work Cementation (Surface) 5 medium skilled resources 1 high skilled resource 3 medium skilled Duration of drilling 1 days Drilling rig day work 5 medium skilled resources Duration of drilling activity Drill Lateral Directional drilling 4 high skilled resources Duration of drilling activity Cementation (Intermediate & Production 1 high skilled resource 3 medium skilled 1 day each section Transportation Vacuum truck 1 medium skilled resource 1 week Equipment Rental Onsite field equipment 1 medium skilled resource 1 week 62 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick

64 Shale Gas Workforce Completion and Stimulation Completion and Stimulation Stimulation Coil tubing Hydraulic stimulation operations (plug and perforation) Tubing installation 3 high skilled resources 22 medium skilled 1 high skilled resource 4 medium skilled 2 weeks 1 week Vacuum trucking 1 medium skilled resource 2 weeks General Transportation Water trucking 43 Trucks and drivers per day for completion 18 trucks and drivers for produced water hauling (disposal activity) Duration of completion & stimulation activity Mobilization Equipment Rental 1 medium skilled resource 2 weeks 63 Shale Gas Supply Chain Opportunities in New Brunswick