True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Antonio Achille, Partner & Managing Director

Transcription

1 True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Antonio Achille, Partner & Managing Director Milan, January 22 nd, 2015

2 Disclaimer This volume contains copies of slides presented by Antonio Achille, Partner and Managing Director of the BCG Milan office, and Armando Branchini, Deputy Chairman of Fondazione Altagamma, during the "Consumer and Retail Insight" event held in Milan on January 22 nd The presentation is based on a research that BCG developed during the month of November 2014, interviewing 10'000 Top Luxury consumers from 10 countries (Italy, France, UK, Germany, US, Japan, China, Brazil, South Korea and Russia). During the presentation, the slides served as the focus for discussion; they are incomplete without the accompanying oral commentary This document will be most meaningful, therefore, to those who attended the meeting P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 1

3 True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight: 6 "W" questions addressed today Copyright 2015 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Why now? What makes our study unique? Where will growth come from? What are the consumer trends shaping the industry? Which segments will drive growth? What will it take to capture growth in key categories? P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 2

4 Why now? P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 3

5 Organic growth: 2 / 3 of next decade growth Last decade growth by component 2 Upcoming decade growth by component 2 20% 30% 20% 35% 100% 40% 100% 10% 25% 20% Traditional Markets 1 Emerging markets Price - Mix Volume Total growth Traditional markets 1 Emerging markets Price - Mix Volume Total growth Retail expansion Organic growth (LFL) Retail expansion. Organic growth (LFL) 60% 40% 30% 70% 1. Europe (Italy, France, UK, Germany, Spain, Nordics), US and Japan; 2. Referrers to personal luxury (apparel, accessories, hard luxury, Perfume & Cosmetics) Note: Last decade Personal Luxury market CAGR growth ~5%; upcoming decade Personal Luxury market CAGR growth ~4% Source: Bernstein / BCG analysis P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 4

6 The CONSUMER era Design +Brand +Retail +Consumer '80s '90s '00s 2015 next decade Style & Design for elites Temple of Desire The rise of Global Brands Retail as part of Brand experience "Real estate rush" Consumer: engine of top line and margin growth P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 5

7 What makes our study unique? P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 6

8 2015 Edition: What's new? Top Luxury Consumers analyzed 10 luxury markets deep dived All luxury categories in scope Doubled sample yearly average spending: 10K 20K 2K 5K yearly spend as entry point luxury consumers spending yearly on avg. 44K in P&E luxury Category breakdowns Consumer Segments as key lens to read market dynamics P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 7

9 All luxury categories in scope Luxury market ( B,2014 retail value) 1,500 1,000 Personal luxury (290 B) P&E 1 Market: 755 B Experiential luxury (465 B) 354 Cars & Yachts (350 B) Others (280 B) , Accessories Apparel Watches Perfumes & & Jewelry Cosmetics Furnitures Food & Wine Hotel & Exclusive vacations Cars & Yachts Technology Arts Other 2 Total Covered by True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight 1.Personal and Experiential luxury 2. Including Private Jets, Art de la table, etc Note: Some numbers are rounded. Source: BCG 2014 specific survey, BCG-IPSOS market research P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 8

10 Sounding board of WW leading Brands to ensure robustness and actionability of the insight Copyright 2015 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved additions P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 9

11 Where will growth come from? P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 10

12 Short term: Luxury Barometer indicates rebound of confidence in 2015 vs Short term "Do you expect to spend more or less on luxury products in the next 12 months?" % of respondents More (+20%) 33% 23% 37% Same 43% 48% 39% Less (-20%) 24% 29% 24% Luxury Barometer 1 9pp -5pp 13pp 1. Index calculated as percentage of customers who see growth in spend less the percentage who foresee a decrease in spend (Positive Negative). The index represents a proxy of the expected growth of spend in Luxury by Top Luxury consumers Source: BCG 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 11

13 390M consumers to become 465M by 2021 with P&E market growing from 755 to 1015 Bn Cluster Mid term # (M) Bn( ) 1 # (M) Bn( ) 1 20 k 10 k Beyond money Ultra k Very high k Total Top Luxury Top Aspirational Aspirational Total Luxury Consumers 1 ~390 ~755 ~465 ~ Including Experiential and Personal luxury, excluding cars and Yachts Note: rounded numbers Source: BCG Analysis P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 12

14 US consumers confirmed as the main contributor to future growth Mid term P&E 1 Luxury market growth by Nationality ( Bn) Top Luxury B ~55% Americans Chinese European 2 Middle Eastern Others Personal & Experiential Luxury market; 2. Italian, French, German, English 3. Including Japanese, S. Korean, Russian, Brazilian and RoW Source: BCG 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 13

16 Global trends confirming their importance Confirmations Changes in Trajectory New Trends "Made in" still rocks: 80% of consumers actively check where products are "Made-In" "Made in Italy" still rules: 1st preferred manufacturing country Leadership in all categories but cars (1 st Germany) and watches (1 st Switzerland) Advocacy era continuing: 80% of consumers willing to become brand ambassador 53% of Luxury consumers spend made out of the home country Drivers: convenience key for Emerging Markets; part of the journey experience for Mature Markets Exclusivity key for long term creation and not granted: 25% of luxury brands at risk of loosing exclusivity based on consumer declarations P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 15

17 Changes in trajectory Confirmations Changes in Trajectory New Trends Intro values still roaring with selective extro values rebound (from 27% to 34%) Word of Mouth becoming 1st influence lever and increasingly digitally enhanced Digital growing importance with online influencing 62% vs. 53% of total luxury purchases Store windows losing relevance vs. online (from 39% to 32%): is store role changing? Omnichannel getting momentum, 75% of consumers asking for it Brands website preferred e-commerce channel: websites quality and customer care more important than price P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 16

18 Intro values still roaring Selective rebound of Extro values? Values "What is luxury to you?" % of respondents 1 24% 24% 29% 30% 34% 38% 39% 40% 41% 44% 2014: 66% 76% 76% 71% 70% 66% 62% 61% 60% 59% 56% Extro values Adorned aesthetics Brand visibility Customization Being Cool/Sexy Intro values Quality Exclusivity Craftsmanship Timeless 2013 Intro Value Avg. 73% 73% 83% 83% 72% 69% 69% 61% 75% 69% 1. Respondents were asked to rank the top 3 values: the graph represent the value ranked as the most important Source: BCG 2013 and 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 17

19 Word of Mouth: 1 st influence lever, overcoming magazines WoM "Which of the following has an impact on your purchase decision?" % of respondents 2013 Magazines 50% WoM 1 32% 11% 43% Store windows Brand websites TV & Movies Tailored offers 24% 22% Events 20% Celebrities 20% 39% 34% Magazines 2 Events Store windows Tailored offers Brand websites TV & Movies Celebrities 2014 WoM 29% 20% 49% 32% 32% 31% 30% 26% 23% 39% Different WoM influence across nationalities 58% 55% 53% 52% 52% 49% 17% 47% Avg. 46% 18% 33% 26% 41% 35% 26% 22% Social Media & Blogs Physical 41% 21% 14% 24% 17% 19% 30% 33% 30% 25% 22% 34% 10% 23% 49% Seen Worn 13% Seen Wore 19% 1 Includes WoM, Social Media and Other Social blogs 2. Editorials and Commercial in Magazines Note: multiple choices possible, out of top 3 ranks Source: BCG 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 18

20 Social media and blogs the real engine of Word of Mouth growth WoM "Which of the following has an impact on your purchase decision?" +6pp Δpp '13-'14 49% 43% 8% Blogs 5% 6% 12% Social Media +3pp +6pp 32% 29% Physical (3pp) WoM digitalization index WoM Digitalization index: calculated as Social Media & Blogs influence vs. WoM physical influence Note: multiple choices possible, out of top 3 ranks Source: BCG 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 19

21 >50% sales digital influenced already in past year edition... Digital "Where have you bought the last item purchased? Where have you researched it?" % of last purchase for each respondent % Pure in Store Researched Online Purchased Offline Showrooming (viewed in store, purchased on line) Pure Online Total Omnichannel Source: BCG 2013 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 20

22 ...channels are further blurring: 62% of sales digitally influenced in 2014 Digital "Where have you bought the last item purchased? Where have you researched it?" % of last purchase for each respondent % 62% Pure in Store Researched Online Purchased Offline Showrooming (viewed in store, purchased on line) Pure Online Total Omnichannel Source: BCG 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 21

23 "Pure store" no longer the first channel for sales Digital "Where have you bought the last item purchased? Where have you researched it?" % of last purchase for each respondent % Pure in Store Researched Online Purchased Offline Showrooming (viewed in store, purchased on line) Pure Online Total Omnichannel Source: BCG 2013 and 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 22

24 3 out of 4 consumers asking for omnichannel Digital "How important is for you that a brand can be reached through different channels?" Omnichannel importance across nationalities Not Important Somehow important 25% 38% 75% % of respondents 90% 41% 85% 81% 81% 78% 78% 75% 71% 44% 43% 34% 27% 57% 48% 42% 33% 31% 45% Avg. 75% Not negotiable/ Very Important 37% 49% 41% 38% 43% 33% 36% 49% 37% 26% 33% 11% Total Source: BCG 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 23

25 For online shoppers brands website 1 st option; experience more important than price Digital "Which kind of online store did you buy the product from?" "Which factors are more important when buying on line?" % of respondent % of respondent Brand website 37% Online marketplace 20% 1.9x Website navigability Online customer care quality 31% 29% Dept. store website 18% Luxury-specialized etailers Others kind of websites (travels, restaurant,...) 8% 16% Brand carried Payments accepted Free return Exclusive collections 25% 24% 22% 21% Flash sales sites 2% Price discount 20% Source: BCG 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 24

26 New trends Confirmations Changes in Trajectory New Trends Sustainability is happening, 13% importance as value +5 pp vs led by Europeans and Americans Are US and UK self legitimating as "Made" in countries for Luxury? Dynamism in fashion hubs: New York City growing, Milan fading Dubai, Singapore and Los Angels legitimating as fashion hubs? P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 25

27 Sustainability is happening: will declared values impact behaviors? Sustainability "What is luxury to you?" % over respondents +5pp 13% 18% 15% 15% 13% 13% % 5% 6% 9% 4% 10% 10% 8% Total Europe Brazil US Russia China Δ (pp) +13pp - +7pp +4pp +6pp -2pp Multiple answer possible Source: BCG 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 26

28 Are US and UK self legitimating as "Made in" countries? Made in "Which country of manufacturing do you consider the best for Luxury?" Who is saying that? On which categories? % of respondents selecting US +3pp ~33% Apparel ~25% ~17% Jewelry ~17% 7% 10% ~10% Handbags ~13% % of respondents selecting UK +3pp ~25% Apparel ~22% 4% 7% ~12% Handbags ~18% ~12% Jewelry ~16% Source: BCG 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 27

29 Dynamism in fashion hubs with New York rising and Milan fading Spend Abroad Copyright 2015 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved. "In which cities have you bought luxury products in the past 12 months? In which ones do you plan to buy in the next 12 months 1?" Paris 1 Paris 1 Paris 1 Milan 2 New-York 2 New-York 2 London 3 London 3 London 3 New-York 4 Hong-Kong 4 Milan 4 Hong-Kong 5 Milan 5 Hong-Kong 5 1. The calculations excludes consumers in their home country Source: BCG 2013 and 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 28

30 Among the group of followers Dubai, Singapore and Los Angels gaining momentum... Spend Abroad Copyright 2015 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved. "In which cities have you bought luxury products in the past 12 months? In which ones do you plan to buy in the next 12 months 1?" Rome 6 Dubai 6 Dubai 6 Dubai 7 Los Angeles 7 Los Angeles 7 Miami 8 Rome 8 Rome 8 Los Angeles Singapore 9 9 Singapore 9 Singapore 10 Miami 10 Miami The calculations excludes consumers in their home country Source: BCG 2013 and 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 29

31 Which Segments will drive growth? P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 30

32 Current value Avg. Segment size Copyright 2015 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved. 8 Global segments, 3 of them counting for ~50% Global segments (gender / geography balanced) Gender specific Country specific Absolute Luxurer Mega citier Experien cer Fashioni sta #Little Prince Social Wearer Status Seeker Classpira tional Timeless Proper Omni Gifter Luxe Immune Rich Upstarter (M) (%) 9% 10% 11% 11% 6% 7% 8% 11% 9% 8% 6% 5% Spend 1 (K ) (Bn ) (%) 24% 15% 13% 8% 6% 6% 5% 3% 8% 8% 2% 2% counting for ~50% of lux. market Note: This table represent Luxury Consumer of Beyond Money, Very High, High and a projection proxy of Top Aspirational consumers 1. Not including Cars & Yachts Source: BCG 2014 ad hoc study (10'000 respondents in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 31

34 Product category insight through the eyes of most relevant consumer segment Copyright 2015 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Absolute Luxurer Megacitier Omni Gifter & Timeless Proper #Little Prince Experiencer 22% of 2014 Leather Goods market First contributor to long term growth (+3B ) 16% of 2014 Apparel market First contributor to long term growth (+1.2B ) 15% of 2014 Hard Luxury market First contributors to long term growth (+2.2B ) 11% of 2014 P&C Luxury Market Fast growing segment (CAGR +6.1%) 17% of 2014 Experiential Luxury Market 46% share of wallet (1 st category) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 33

35 Leather Goods Absolute Luxurer Absolute Luxurer Megacitier Omni Gifter & Timeless Proper #Little Prince Experiencer 22% of 2014 Leather Goods market First contributor to long term growth (+3B ) 16% of 2014 Apparel market First contributor to long term growth (+1.2B ) 15% of 2014 Hard Luxury market First contributors to long term growth (+2.2B ) 11% of 2014 P&C Luxury Market Fast growing segment (CAGR +6.1%) 17% of 2014 Experiential Luxury Market 46% share of wallet (1 st category) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 34

36 Leather Goods: Absolute Luxurer 1 st contributor to long term growth Copyright 2015 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Absolute Luxurer Total size #: 2.2M Spend/head: 30K Total spend: 67B Life stage: yr. Gender: 55% W Leather Goods Top luxury market growth by Segment B 40 +9B Absolute luxurer Mega citier Fashioni sta #Little Prince Others Market (%) CAGR (%) 22% 15% 9% 5% 49% 7.4% 7.7% 5.9% 8.1% 3.5% Rounded numbers Source: BCG 2014 specific survey ( Top luxury Consumers in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 35

37 Quality and exclusivity not negotiable, off price and low entry price disaffection triggers Copyright 2015 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Purchase Enablers Disaffection triggers Craftsmanship/quality 26 Too much off-price 30 Exclusivity 23 Low entry price 27 Customization 23 Fake copies 25 Shopping experience 22 Poor distribution 22 Value for money 21 Owned by majority of friends 19 Brand visibility (logo) 21 Too many categories 18 Customer care 20 Stores too Large 18 Adorned aesthetics 18 Production outside home country 17 Source: BCG 2014 specific survey ( Top luxury Consumers in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 36

38 Handbags: 67% of Absolute Luxurer researching online Copyright 2015 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved. "Where did you buy handbags? Where did you researched them?" "Why did you researched online for handbags?" % of respondents 23% Gathering information on product Interaction with brand 32% 42% 100% 67% Opinion & Feedback Sharing 27% Access to brand content 23% 7% 2% Price and product comparison 17% Follow/influence trends 14% Overall Avg. Total Pure in store Researched Online Purchased Offline Show rooming 1 38% 45% 9% 8% Pure online 1. viewed in store, purchased on line Source: BCG 2014 specific survey ( Top luxury Consumers in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 37

39 Brand polarization: 70-80% of Absolute Luxurer prefers specialist brands Copyright 2015 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved. "Which type of brand do you prefer?" % of respondents % of respondents 22% 25% 100% 100% 80% 71% Core Leather Goods brands Lifestyle brands Total Handgabs Core Leather Goods brands Lifestyle brands Total Shoes Source: BCG 2014 specific survey ( Top luxury Consumers in 10 countries) P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 38

40 The CONSUMER era: key takeaways (I) 2 / 3 of the next decade's growth will be organic Growth to continue...: Short term (2015): rebound in luxury confidence already in 2015 Mid term (2021): 390M consumers to become 465; market to increase by 260 Bn...but at multiple speeds: Consumers: Top Luxury (4% of total) making 40% of growth alone Geographies: US, China, EU and ME accounting for 55% of total growth Sectors: Experiential luxury growing faster than Personal luxury Categories: Jewelry & Watches and Leather 1 st contributors to growth in Personal P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 39

41 The CONSUMER era: key takeaways (II) Consumer: Confirmations and new realities Made in still rules, but not granted Digital influence reaching new heights Omnichannel from buzzword to reality Sustainability is happening 12 unique segments entering your stores with different expectations Absolute Luxurer, Megacitier and Experiencer representing 65% of future growth Consumer lens the only way to capture future growth Leather: Absolute Luxurer looking for craftsmanship and brand specialization... Apparel: Casualization led by Megacitier,.. Jewelry: Omni Gifter picking pure jewelry brands only, Consumer Insight next competitive advantage: there will be winners and losers P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 40

42 Antonio Achille Partner and Managing Director - Milan Antonio Achille is a Partner and Managing Director in the Milan office. He is a senior leader of the Consumer & Retail team and he co-leads globally the Luxury practice for the firm. For 20 years, he has been advising National and International Groups on issues that include corporate strategy, growth acceleration, clients strategic segmentation, organization redesign and Post Merger Integration. In the Luxury and Fashion sector his experience includes apparel, eyewear, accessories, selective fragrances, jewelry/hard luxury and experiential luxury. The geographical scope of his work includes most of the developed and emerging luxury markets (EU, North America, China, Turkey, Korea, Middle East.). He has developed an extensive knowledge on the Global Luxury Consumer and he is responsible for the database that includes a comprehensive view on over consumers from 20 countries, developed in cooperation with Altagamma, the trade association for the Italian luxury industry. The actionable insights of the study are presented at the yearly event True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight. In addition he contributes to the annual Luxury Summit, one of the most valued discussion forum for the sector. He is also member of the Scientific Committee of one the first Italian master on Luxury. He is author and co-author of most of the recent BCG publication on Luxury such as "Luxury ecosystem advantage", "Shock of the New chic",... Antonio is extensively quoted, as Luxury and Consumer expert, in Italian and International media, such as FT, WWD, Bloomberg, CNBC, FashionIllustrated, Il sole 24 ore, Il Corriere della Sera,... Prior to joining BCG he worked for Arthur D. Little. He graduated magna cum laude from the Università L. Bocconi of Milan where he holds a degree in Business Administration. P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 41

43 About BCG and its Luxury practice The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is a global management consulting firm and the world s leading advisor on business strategy. We partner with clients from the private, public, and not-for-profit sectors in all regions to identify their highest-value opportunities, address their most critical challenges, and transform their enterprises. Our customized approach combines deep insight into the dynamics of companies and markets with close collaboration at all levels of the client organization. This ensures that our clients achieve sustainable competitive advantage, build more capable organizations, and secure lasting results. Founded in 1963, BCG is a private company with 81 offices in 45 countries. Within the Firm, The Luxury practice, with more than 200 experts worldwide, advises Brands and Retail companies bringing together the experience of its centers of competence located in all key must-be geographies for the sector: Milan, New York, Paris, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Tokyo. BCG Luxury team has a deep and relevant experience driving profitable growth with leading Brands and Retail companies, from strategy to marketing and operations, and a unique point of view on consumer segmentation. P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 42

44 BCG contacts For a copy of BCG "True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight" or to schedule an interview with Antonio Achille, please contact: INTERNATIONAL PRESS: Lisa Trunfio Trunfio.Lisa@bcg.com or ITALIAN PRESS: Francesco Guidara Guidara.Francesco@bcg.com or Francesca Prosperi Prosperi.Francesca@bcg.com or P-Altagamma Jan15-AAc-mil_Published_short.pptx 43

45 Thank you bcg.com bcgperspectives.com