ABOUT GYODER. Vision To pioneer the Real Estate Industry in accordance with our aims and objectives.

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2 ABOUT GYODER GYODER, The Association of Real Estate Investment Companies, was established in 1999 by the existing 12 REICs to promote the real estate industry in Turkey. The Association acts as a platform in introducing and maintaining standards and quality, providing training, networking, and acting as spokesman in relations with media and public authorities. The conferences, meetings, seminars, symposiums, panels and education programs GYODER has organized are seen as major meeting platforms for the players in the sector. 2

3 ABOUT GYODER Vision To pioneer the Real Estate Industry in accordance with our aims and objectives. Mission To form a platform that represents all the sub-sectors of the real estate industry Objectives Establish standards for quality control, evaluation, finance and marketing in the industry, Acts as a platform in introducing and maintaining the Real Estate Sector, To have an active part in directing Turkish economy in a dynamic way. 3

4 ABOUT GYODER Activities Opinions Preparing legal opinions related to the real estate sector to contribute the development of regulations and legal opinions. Opinions about the subject transmitted to the competent institutions and organizations. Reports GYODER values the current data, in order to evaluate the past accurately and to create right projections of the future. In this respect, the association has been publishing reports that are analyzing the real estate sector in detail since Education Programs GYODER organizes educational programs which encourages the development of the Real Estate sector, contributes on training of specialist staff, to improve the manners, knowledge and experience in the sector. 4

5 ABOUT GYODER Activities Real Estate Summit Being organized by GYODER firstly in 2000, the series of Turkish Real Estate Summit have become the sector s traditional meeting and idea sharing events with their international participants of developers, investors, financial institutions, planners, architects and academics. ISTANBUL REstate In 2009 GYODER joined forces with the leading worldwide company, Reed Exhibitions to organize Turkey s first regional real estate and investment fair: ISTANBUL REstate. As a first with its concept, the Turkish Real Estate Summit is beeing held together with ISTANBUL REstate Real Estate and Investment Fair since

6 ABOUT GYODER Activities Developing Cities Summit GYODER also organized Developing Cities Summit in order to present investment opportunities in developing cities to sector representatives and to help cities to reach out to national and international real estate investors. The first of the Developing Cities Summit was organized in January 2010 in Bursa in cooperation with Bursa Metropolitan Municipality. Second of the Developing Cities Summit was organised in November 2010 in Konya in the cooperation with Konya Metropolitian Municipality. Preparing Residential Price Index GYODER, with cooperation with REIDIN, submits an indicator index, which is developed from the properties of corporate real estate investment firms generally known as "Trademarked Projects. 6

7 ABOUT GYODER Members 21 REITs (With a market value of 7 billion USD) 56 Consultant Firms 47 Investor 40 Developer Firms 8 Financial Instutions 33 Other Specialty Companies TOTAL : 205 Firms With these members GYODER is very prestigious and leader association inturkey. GYODER successfully represents Turkey among worldwide associations of real estate industry such as MIPIM, Barcelona Meeting Point, Fannie Mae and NAREIT. 7

8 REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT COMPANIES In 2010, 6 new real estate investment companies went public, whereupon the number of the real estate investment companies listed to ISE increased up to 21, The portfolio value of 21 real estate investment companies increased up to TL 10.2 billion, while the market value thereof increased up to TL 10.4 billion, PERIODS 2008 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 NUMBER OF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT COMPANIES PORTFOLIO VALUE MARKET VALUE TL MIO USD MIO TL BIO USD MIO

9 GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF 2010 AND PROJECTIONS FOR

10 INFLATION The inflation rate in 2009 actualized as 6.5 % in line with the weak consumer demand. In 2010, the inflation rate was 6,4 % in spite of the recovery and rapid economic growth. Inflation Rates YEARS CPI % T The inflation is projected to remain relatively low and actualize as per cent within

11 MONETARY POLICIES AND INTEREST RATES In 2010, the interest rates declined to the lowest level in history. The Central Bank will have completed its exit strategy to a substantial extent in The Central Bank is projected to be sensitive to the price stability as well as the overheating of the economy, the current deficit risk and the hot money inflows in In 2011, the Central Bank is projected to sustain reducing the interest rates in line and with respect to the global economic developments. In 2011, the interest rates will remain low, and Turkish Lira will remain strong. Central Bank s Benchmark Interest Rate YEARS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE % (1) 2011 T (1) Benchmark Interest Rate was modified by the Central Bank 11

12 THE REAL ESTATE SECTOR 12

13 THE GLOBAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS IN 2010 THE HOUSING INDUSTRIES OF THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES FAILED TO ENTER INTO A COURSE OF RECOVERY. THE HOUSING FINANCE SYSTEMS IN THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC. THE CONSTRUCTION OPERATIONS AND EXPENDITURES IN THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES CONTINUED TO SHRINK. THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE VALUES, INVESTMENTS AND FINANCING IN THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES HAVE NOT RECOVERED THE ONGOING STAGNATION. THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRIES OF THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EXPERIENCED A RAPID GROWTH. THE INCREASE IN THE REAL ESTATE PRICES IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES LEAD TO THE BUBBLE CONCERNS. TURKEY STANDS OUT AS THE ONE COUNTRY TO BE EXPOSED TO THE LOWEST REAL ESTATE BUBBLE RISK WITH RESPECT TO THE REAL ESTATE PRICES AND THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM STRUCTURE. 13

14 PROJECTIONS FOR THE GLOBAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS IN 2011 THE HOUSING MARKET IN THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES WILL REMAIN TO BE UNDER PRESSURE. THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCING SYSTEMS IN THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES MAY EXPERIENCE TROUBLES. THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WILL BE SENSITIVE TO THE OVERHEATING OF THE REAL ESTATE MARKETS IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND THE REAL ESTATE PRICE BUBBLES. THE BUBBLE RISK WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN TURKEY WITH RESPECT TO THE LEVEL OF REAL ESTATE PRICES AND THE LIABILITIES BORNE BY THE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS. 14

15 TURKISH REAL ESTATE MARKET IN 2010 Housing Sector; Gradually accelerating housing operations throughout the year on the account and the basis of economic recovery, increase in the consumer confidence, low interest rates, high loan utilization (lending) appetite of the banks, new housing projects and the expansion in the cross-border contracts, Commercial Real Estate Sector; Recovery in the office and shopping mall segments on the account and the basis of economic recovery, increase in the consumer confidence and the retail expenditures, interest of the foreigners and the improvement in the expectations of the business world. 15

16 HOUSING SECTOR Housing Needs Independent from economic developments for being dependent to populational increase, urbanization ratio, necessity of renovation of houses and urban transformation Need for thousand houses per year (GYODER s Housing Finance Report) Housing Demand Increase in the housing demand in line with the recovery of the economic expectations in 2010 Relatively affordable loan conditions on the account of the fact that the loan interest rates will remain low for a long period of time The ongoing tempting sales campaigns offer by producers to the consumers Resumption of the tendency of increase in the income per capita and the household income Stable increase projection for housing demand in

17 HOUSING SECTOR House Prices The house prices and rents remained stagnant throughout Turkey in 2010, The house prices are at reasonable levels for purchase, The increase in house prices is projected to remain limited with respect to the expected housing demand and new housing supply in 2011, Housing Supply Recovery in housing supply and new projects in 2010, Stable and moderate increase in any type of houses in 2011 (some 10 % increase is projected - GYODER) 17

18 OFFICE SECTOR Office Demand Increase in the demand for the leasing of new offices as well as the exchange of offices, retreat in vacancy rates and limited increase in the rents in line with the economic recovery in 2010; tangible increase in the demand by international companies; increase in the office demand particularly on the Anatolian side; the rents remain higher relative to the pre-crisis period. The increase in the demand for leasing will continue in line with the positive economic expectations for the year The limited retreat in the vacancy rates will continue. The office rents are projected to increase to a reasonable and limited extent. Supply of Offices In 2010, the supply of offices expanded in the developing off-cba areas on the Anatolian and the European sides. In 2011, the supply of offices will continue on the basis of the office investments to be sustained in the new development and transformation areas with a view to meet the expansion in demand. The share of the office spaces in multi-purpose projects will increase. 18

19 LOGISTICS SECTOR Demand for Logistic Space Even though the economic recovery has boosted up the interests of the international 3PL logistics companies, the new leasing operations remained weak throughout the year, the demand was raised by the national companies for office exchange-oriented leasing purposes on the basis of cost management concerns, the rents remained unchanged throughout the year. The demand for the leasing of logistic spaces is expected to exceed the demand actualized in 2010 on the account of the economic recovery, the industrial growth, the expansion in retail spaces and the demand from the international logistics companies. Supply of Logistic Space The supply of new logistic spaces remained limited in 2010; the inadequate demand and the costs arising from the high land prices as well as the low rents constrain the supply of new spaces. The supply of new logistic spaces is projected to exceed the supply in 2010 but to remain below the supply in the pre-crisis period. 19

20 SHOPPING MALL SECTOR Demand for Shopping Malls The demand was set back to rise in line with the increase in the consumer confidence and the recovery in the retail sector in 2010, The new shopping leasing operations continue to remain below the pre-crisis level, however the gradual increase in the rents is expected to continue in 2011 The increasing interest of the international retailers boost up the demand for shopping malls, The increase in the household income and the expansion potential of the organized retail business keep the demand for shopping malls buoyant in the medium term, Supply of Shopping Malls The shopping mall investments have been recovered, as a consequence of which the postponed or cancelled projects are set back to be launched, The shopping mall investments have been recovered, as a consequence of which the postponed or cancelled projects are set back to be launched, The expansion, which was recorded in 2010, is projected to continue in 2011 in line with the optimistic expectations for the economy, The supply of shopping malls is expected to saturate in the medium term, 20

21 PROJECTIONS FOR 2011 ECONOMIC GROWTH 5 % INFLATION % INTEREST RATE APPLIED BY THE CENTRAL BANK % HOUSING LOAN INTEREST RATE, MONTHLY AVERAGE 0.9 % HOUSING LOANS, GROWTH BY 20 % HOUSING LOANS TL 68 BILLION CONSTRUCTION SECTOR GROWTH % INCREASE IN HOUSING CONSTRUCTION LICENCES 10 % LIMITED INCREASE IN THE HOUSE PRICES AND RENTS GROWTH IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS BY 8-10 % LIMITED REASONABLE INCREASE IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE RENTS 21

22 CONCLUSION The world economy passed through an unstable and fragile growth period in It is expected that a sustainable course of growth can be ensured in 2011 thanks to the additional measures taken by the developed countries. The developing countries exhibited a strong growth performance in 2010, and are expected to maintain such performance in Turkish economy grew beyond expectations in Turkey is positively distinguished from its peers for its fiscal discipline, robust financial system and strong growth potential. The growth performance will remain strong in 2011 as well. The problems with the real estate sectors in the developed countries remained unsolved in 2010, and are projected to dominate the sectors in 2011, too. On the other hand, the real estate markets of the developing countries had a buoyant year in 2010, which was, though, also characterized by asset bubbles risk. Those markets are expected to be characterized by buoyant nature and the said risks in 2011, as well. Turkish construction sector and real estate market stepped back into a course of growth in While significant improvement was made in terms of new launches and loan utilization in the housing market, the shopping mall and the office segments had a year of recovery in the commercial real estate sector. The growth in both the construction sector and the real estate sector will continue in

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