ABS 2020 Vision. Kai Peters Ashridge 23 October, 2007

Transcription

1 ABS 2020 Vision Kai Peters Ashridge 23 October, 2007

2 In IMD was founded in a merger of IMI and IMEDE The merger was decided by Governors, not by Deans Juan Rada was appointed Dean George Bain was hired from Warwick to run LBS The MBA at LBS cost 10K Rankings did not exist in Europe Accreditation did not exist in Europe Kai did his GMAT, paper version, on a clipboard, on his knees, in the theatre of a cultural centre, in Hamburg

3 If that is what +/-15 years ago looked like, what will 2020 look like? The future is already here. if you know where to look. (Peter Drucker)

4 So, where do we look? Context Business Schools substitutes

5 ABS 2020 Vision The Global Context Bologna The Global Context Increased Mobility The Global Context Proliferation The European Context The National Context Developments at the School Level Executive Education Some Thoughts on Knowledge Conclusion

6 First a cautious estimate: no change in enrolment or graduation rates using Anglo-American perspectives 2.16m Bachelor graduates per annum 80% enter employment: 1.73m 20% continue studying: 0.43m 25% pre-experience business Master: 108,000 75% non-business Master: 322, % undertake MBA 26, % undertake MBA: 4,830 potential MBA students per annum: 30,830 Notes: Tertiary enrolment data has been collected from OECD, 2003, Education at a Glance. If unavailable, a default rate of 15% has been used A single graduation rate of 76% has been used which represents the European average (OECD, 2003, Education at a Glance)

7 Now let s look at the other side of Pareto from a continental perspective 2.5m Bachelor Graduate per annum 20% enter employment: 0.5m 80% continue studying: 2m 25% pre-experience business Master: 500,000 75% non-business Master: 1.5m 1.5% undertake MBA 7, % undertake MBA: 22,500 potential MBA students per annum: 30,000

8 Costing the European higher education market 51m year olds (2005) 10.2m students who could enter tertiary higher education 3.2m do 2.4m graduate with a Bachelor degree 0.7m graduate with a Master degree 0.2m graduate with a Master in business m x 10,000 x 4 = 96bn 0.7m x 10,000 x 1 = 7bn 103bn 2.4m x 10,000 x 3 = 72bn 0.7m x 10,000 x 2 = 14bn 86bn

9 ABS 2020 The Global Context Bologna The Global Context Increased Mobility The Global Context Proliferation The European Context The National Context Developments at the School Level Executive Education Some Thoughts on Knowledge Conclusion

10 Schools rely on growth from non-domestic students Globally 1.9m mobile students, 85% to OECD (1.6m) Foreign student numbers in OECD countries have doubled over past 20 years; 85% pursue long-term academic tertiary programmes (ISCED 5A/6) Students mainly in English-speaking countries, 2001: 33% to North America 3% of student enrolments at tertiary level 30% to US, 1% to Canada Asian students 60% of all foreign students 53% to Europe Foreign students make up 5% of total tertiary enrolments 14% to UK, 13% to Germany, 9% to France ~50% from other European countries 12% to Asia Between 1990 and 1996: International student mobility grew by 37% Highest growth seen in UK, 119,000 more students 59,000 additional foreign in AU US sluggish growth, 17% Overseas students are making up for a decline in domestic [ ] enrolments [ ] last year [they] rose 6.2% and made up 22% of the total Financial Express, Australia, 19 February 2005 Oxford [plans] to cut the number of home and EU undergraduates from 10,400 to 8,500 and to expand non-eu from 825 to around 1,400 The Guardian, UK, 8 February 2005

11 Why? Because it matters Income from overseas education has become an important export sector for Australia [ ] reaching $4.1bn in 2002/03 Financial Express, 19 February 2005 UK universities are predicting a 44% rise in income from overseas fees, which will increase from 1,125m in 2003/04 to 1,621m in 2007/08 The Guardian, 8 February 2005 International students are no longer an optional extra Ivor Krewe, President of Universities UK Ireland, 2003/04, 18,608 international students (15,000 non-eu), up by 19% from previous year, generated revenues of 275m Education Travel Magazine, Issue I, 2005 Main form of cross-border education from Asia-Pacific region is acquisition of a full degree on fee-paying basis Export revenue (living, travel and education costs) related to international student mobility estimated at $30bn (1998), ~3% of global services exports UK: foreign students provide 7% of total higher education budget ( 1.25bn) (FT, 5 March 2005) US: international education contributes nearly $12.9bn to the US economy (Open doors, 2003)

12 ABS 2020 The Global Context Bologna The Global Context Increased Mobility The Global Context Proliferation The European Context The National Context Developments at the School Level Executive Education Some Thoughts on Knowledge Conclusion

13 The fight for students starts as programmes start to proliferate. More will come MBA programmes in Germany speaking Europe up from 5 in 1990 to 182 in 2005 (WSJ Europe, 4 March 2005) Mergers and Buyouts: TIAS, IE GMAC reports that in 1997 only 74 new programmes were introduced. In 2007, 641 were introduced in the world. Over 10 years, 3710 new graduate management programmes were launched in Europe 1449 in Asia, South America, Australia and Africa 708 in North America Distance Education transforms into Second or Third Life?

14 Students come or do not. Applications and enrolments are volatile: UK: enrolments from China [are] a sharp 25.8% down from 35,155 in 2002/2003, 2003/04 data (Financial Times, 5 March 2005) Chinese students are now the largest single grouping of international students in the UK. In 2006 there were over 50,000 Chinese students in the UK. (China Office of University of Edinburgh, 2007) [China] is hoping to attract 120,000 foreign students [...] by 2008 ; [There are] 86,000 international students enrolled in Chinese universities in 2004, an increase of 11% on the previous year. (Chronicle of Higher Education, 2005) 41% South Koreans 19% Japanese 8% American The % of foreign students in higher education, 2002/03: Austria 12% France 7.3% Germany 9.6% Italy 1.8% Switzerland 17% UK 10.9%

15 And it 10K/year/student Top 10 UK Universities Chinese Intake University of Manchester 1, Warwick University 1, Loughborough University 1, University of Birmingham 1, University of Hertfordshire 1, University of Nottingham 1, University of Central Lancashire 1, University of Leeds University of Sunderland University of Sheffield 960

16 Looking forward in Europe, supply will outstrip demand, or will it? ~12, m+ ~100 Potential Master student pool Master courses timeline

17 ABS 2020 Vision The Global Context Bologna The Global Context Increased Mobility The Global Context Proliferation The European Context The National Context Developments at the School Level Executive Education Some Thoughts on Knowledge Conclusion

18 The European Context ENQA, the European Register, EQUIS, AMBA and AACSB GMAC in Europe

19 ABS 2020 Vision The Global Context Bologna The Global Context Increased Mobility The Global Context Proliferation The European Context The National Context Developments at the School Level Executive Education Some Thoughts on Knowledge Conclusion

20 The National Context Non Traditional Providers: BPP, Buckingham, IFS, Kaplan Arrival of the Americans (some) Political Agendas: Access, Train to Gain

21 ABS 2020 Vision The Global Context Bologna The Global Context Increased Mobility The Global Context Proliferation The European Context The National Context Developments at the School Level Executive Education Some Thoughts on Knowledge Conclusion

22 Developments at the school level Different career stages have different educational needs They also have different delivery mechanisms Qualifications, executive education and individual interventions all have a role functional skills University students Managerial Needs Change individual effectiveness organisational dynamics context and strategy Senior executives

23 Age Educational Philosophy Purpose Class Size Faculty Faculty Drivers Audience Success Teaching Style Setting Food Undergraduate 20 Content Judgement/Maturing/Job Up to 600 Professor Peer to peer research Individual Entertainment Lecture Concrete Cardboard MBA/Masters -28- Integration Job 75 Practical Professor or Professor of Practice P2P Research or Professional Journals Individual Entertainment Case Studies Concrete++ Source: Peters/Ridderstrale (2006)

24 Age Educational Philosophy Purpose Class Size Faculty Faculty Drivers Audience Success Teaching Style Setting Food Executive Education 35 Action Career Progress 30 Professor of Practice or Practical Professor Client Satisfaction/ Business Impact Organisation Impact Live Cases Luxury - One-to-one 45+ Reflection Making Choices 1 Psychologist w Business insight Business Impact Organisation via the Individual Results Dialogue Luxury Caviar Source: Peters/Ridderstrale (2006)

25 ABS 2020 Vision The Global Context Bologna The Global Context Increased Mobility The Global Context Proliferation The European Context The National Context Developments at the School Level Executive Education Some Thoughts on Knowledge Conclusion

26 Executive Education In structured interviews with 25 CEOs, research was conducted into learning styles applied over time. Learning strategies were divided into: formal learning (planned) informal learning (unplanned)

27 Formal Learning Courses, workshops Structured benchmarking Networking Conferences Leads to making sense-making, the conversation of tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge the confirmation of gut feel Formal Learning plus sense-making leads to self-confidence (Laljani, 2005)

28 Informal Learning Experience, incremental learning over time Mentors and role model Stretch assignments Risk-taking Effort Collaboration is tremendously powerful and has greater effect than formal learning in many cases, especially once self-confidence is achieved (Laljani, 2005)

29 A Complete Executive Leadership Approach Uses a Multi-Dimensional Portfolio Experience 70% Training 10% Other People 20% Experience Special assignments Stretch targets with coaching Challenging situations Position changes Other people Coaching Positive role models Dialogue and storytelling Leadership cannot be taught, but it can be learned Morgan McCall University of Southern California Training Leadership workshops Online learning Self-directed learning

30 What is knowledge in the future? Who cares about the Tudors when wikipedia exists? How do you decide whether information is good? How does sense making happen? How do you find out about things you do not know exist? What would an education for life look like? How does one deal with obsolete knowledge, lost knowledge and new knowledge?

31 Conclusions Shake outs are due, but is the industry in a position to shake? Technology will continue to develop New players will continue Demographics are changing It will not get any easier!