The German Brewing Industry

Transcription

1 763 Rheingauer Monographien The German Brewing Industry Dirk Schiereck / Christof Sigl-Griib / Christian Voigt (Editors) A collaborative publication from / S M C Publishing AG fjplj Verlag Wissenschaft & Praxis

2 Table of Content Preface I A Case Study: The Acquisition of Holsten Brauerei AG by CarlsbergA/S 1 by Jochen Gast and Christian Johansson 1 Introduction 1 2 The Main Characters Facts and Figures Holsten - Background and History Carlsberg - Background and Growth Strategy 5 3 The Take-Over of Holsten Reasons for the Take-Over of Holsten The New Brand Structure The Transaction Course of Events Financial Terms Risks of the Acquisition Reactions to the Announcement of the Acquisition Analysts' Opinions Market Reaction 14 4 Ex-Post Analysis 15 5 Conclusion 16 Appendix 18 References 23 B M&A-Activities in the German Brewing Industry 26 I Descriptive Statistics - Merger Waves and Multiples 27 by Mirko Jablonsky and Patrick Zenz-Spitzweg 1. Introduction Objective of the Study 27

3 _VI Table of Content 1.2. Course of Analysis Theoretical Background Basic Considerations Regarding the German Beer Market The Concept of Multiple Valuation Merger Statistics M&A Activity in the German Brewing Market Selected Transactions in the German Market German vs. International Transactions Conclusion and Future Outlook 41 Appendix 43 References 49 II Trading Multiples in the German Brewing Industry 51 by Diana Diekmann and Heiko Weber 1 Introduction Objective of the Study Course of Analysis 52 2 Conceptual Foundation of Valuation Methodologies Definition of Trading Multiples Equity Multiples Cash Flow Multiple Price/Earnings Ratio Enterprise Multiples Sales Multiple EBIT Multiple EBITDA Multiple 58 3 Analysis of Trading Multiples in the Brewing Industry Description of the Data Sample and Multiple Calculation Calculation and Analysis of Trading Multiples Equity Multiples Cash Flow Multiple Price/Earnings Ratio Enterprise Multiples 64

4 Table of Content VII Sales Multiple EBIT Multiple EBITDA Multiple 66 4 Conclusion and Final Remarks 67 Appendix 70 References 76 III Transaction Multiple Valuation in the German Brewing Industry 77 by Sarah AH Khalil Ibrahim and Katharina von Bassewitz 1 Introduction Objective of the Study Course of Analysis 78 2 Multiple Valuation Foundation Conceptual Basics of Multiple Valuation Overview of the Most Commonly Applied Multiples Sales Multiples EBIT Multiple EBITDA Multiple Drivers of Variation in Multiples 85 3 Analysis of Transaction Multiples in the German Brewing Industry Description of the Data Set Initial Evaluation of the Assessed Transaction Multiples Description of Sales Multiple Levels Description of EBIT Multiple Levels Description of EBITDA Multiple Levels Evaluation of Multiple Levels with Value Drivers Growth., Profitability Size Intensity of Investments Transaction Advisor Premium 93 4 Concluding Remarks and Outlook 94

5 VIII Table of Content Appendix 96 References 102 C Case Study: The Acquisition of Wiirzburger Hofbrau AG by Kulmbacher Brauerei AG 103 by Sebastian Schels and Tim Knipps 1 Introduction The Acquirer: Kulmbacher Brauerei AG Company Background Product Portfolio Corporate Strategy Shareholder and Holding Structure Financial Data The Target: Wiirzburger Hofbrau AG Company Background Product Portfolio Corporate Strategy Shareholder and Holding Structure Financial Data Strategic Rationale Wiirzburger Hofbrau Under External Pressure Kulmbacher Brauerei AG's Strategic Decision Shareholders' Interests The M&A Deal The Transaction Capital Market Reaction Financial Rationale Valuation of the Target Analysis of Comparable Transactions Conclusion 122 References 124

6 Table of Content IX D Short and Long Term Performance of M&A Activities in the German Brewing Industry 128 I M&A Announcement Effects on Bidders in the German Brewing Industry 129 by Florian Geiger and Tobias Roediger 1 Introduction Objective of the Study Course of Analysis Review of Literature Empirical Analysis Derivation of Hypotheses Event Study Approach Methodology Tests for Statistical Significance Data Selection Data Base Selection Criteria Characteristics of the Data Sample Discussion of Results Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns Comparison of Subsamples Multivariate Regression Implications Summary and Conclusion 147 Appendix 149 References 153 II M&A Announcement Effects on Targets in the German Brewing Industry 159 by Jorg Gerbig and Felix Zawadzky Introduction Objective of the Study Course of Analysis 160

7 _X Table of Content 2 Review of Literature Introduction of Hypothesis Sample Data Collection and Data Revision Descriptive Statistics Methodology Determination of Event Windows Examination and Aggregation of Abnormal Returns Examination of Statistical Significance Analysis of Influencing Factors Results Share Price Reactions Influencing Factors on Share Price Reactions Conclusion 176 Appendix References 181 III Long-Term Performance in the German Brewing Industry - Acquirer versus Non-Acquirer 187 by Jens Anderson and Jorg Homann Introduction Objective of the Study Course of Analysis Review of Literature and Formulation of Hypotheses Review of Literature Formulation of Hypotheses Sample and Data Description Methodology Long-term Performance Study Methods Methodology Selection Estimation of Abnormal Returns Test Statistic Empirical Results 205

8 Table of Content XI 5.1 Long-term Results Short-term Results Summary and Concluding Remarks 209 Appendix 211 References 215 Case Study: The Acquisition of Brau und Brunnen by RB Brauholding 221 by Claus Naarmann and Dominikus Priller 1 Introduction Profiles of the Involved Companies The Bidder - RB Brauholding (Radeberger) The Target - Brau und Brunnen AG The Transaction Course of the Transaction Transaction Price and Valuation Issues Reaction of the Share Price of Brau und Brunnen AG Strategic Rationale behind the Transaction Evaluation of the Transaction Conclusion 238 Appendix 240 References 242 F The German Brewing Industry in an International Comparison 246 I Index for listed Breweries in Germany 247 by UlfDobberke and Florian Voigt 1 Introduction Objective of the Study Course of Analysis Foundations Overview of the German Brewing Market 248

9 XII Table of Content 2.2 Index Basics Description of the Data Sample Index Calculation Methodology Performance versus Price Index Index Formula Index Weighting and Free Float Correction Factor Performance Analysis Holsten as the Key Driver of the BEX BEX-Germany versus DAX, MDAX and EuroStoxx Conclusion and Outlook 263 Appendix 265 References 267 II Developing a European Brewing Industry Index 269 by Nils Steiner and Bastian Biesenbach 1 Introduction Objective of the Study Course of Analysis Indexation for the European Brewing Industry Overview on Index Types Reasons for a European Brewery Index The European Brewing Industry Index (EuroBEX) Methodology and Sample Methodology Method of Index member selection Calculation of the EuroBEX Quarterly Index Adjustment Sample Results Analysis of the EuroBEX Analysis of the BEX in an M&A Context Conclusion 283

10 Table of Content XIII References 285 III Performance Index UK versus Germany 287 by Jens Tegelaers 1 Introduction General Overview Market Structure German Brewers UK Brewers Setting up the Index Sample Index Method Examination Period and Data Weightening and Capping Results and Observations Currency Adjustment Risk and Return Problems and Constraints Additional Remarks Conclusion 301 References 303 IV A Consolidated View on Central and Eastern European Beer Markets Including Russia and China 305 by Philip Janjien and Carsten Diiber 1 Introduction Objective of the Study Course of Analysis Comparative Analysis of Global Beer Markets Mature Versus Emerging Markets Macroeconomic Analysis Drivers of Growth Focal Point Emerging Markets 309

11 XIV Table of Content 2.3 Microeconomic Analysis Consolidation in the Global Beer Market Long-Term Benefits for the Buyers Contemporary Development Long-Term Benefits for the Sellers Market Environment and Related Strategies Consumption Trends Analysis of Beer Prices Market Life Cycles Developments in Eastern Europe Including Russia and China Main Brewers Strategic Considerations Plausible Alternatives The Influence of Scale and Market Fragmentation Choices Depending on Market Maturity Portraying Outperformed Ukraine Russia The People's Republic of China Conclusion 335 Appendix 337 References 351